Chiganizo chodziwika kwambiri kuchokera komaliza Chithunzi cha COP28 - "Global Stocktake" yoyamba (GST), motsogozedwa ndi munthu wamafuta Sultan Al-Jaber komanso motsogozedwa ndi nduna ya zachilengedwe ya ku South Africa Barbara Creecy - ndi cholinga ichi: "Kusiya kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta oyaka mafuta m'machitidwe amagetsi, mwachilungamo, mwadongosolo komanso mwachilungamo, kufulumizitsa kuchitapo kanthu m'zaka khumi zovutazi, kuti tikwaniritse ziro zonse pofika 2050 mogwirizana ndi sayansi.
Mawu akuti "kusintha" ali, komabe, odzaza ndi zigawo za mawu a weasel.
1) Mfundo yofunika kwambiri kwa purezidenti wadziko lino ndi omuthandizira ake kumadzulo, BRICS + ndi mayiko a OPEC anali osati kuvomereza kufunika"gawo kunja"Gasi, mafuta ndi malasha, chifukwa chake, adavomereza Mlembi wamkulu wa UNFCCC Simon Stiell: "Sitinatembenuzire tsamba pa nthawi ya mafuta oyaka…,” chifukwa kugwiritsidwa ntchito kokha kwa 'gawo' (osati 'kutuluka' koma 'pansi') kuli ndi cholinga ichi: “Kufulumizitsa zoyesayesa zochepetsera mphamvu ya malasha osatheratu,” kuvomereza kotheratu kwa malasha 'ochepa' kudzera ( mpaka pano sanachite bwino) ukadaulo wa kaboni, kujambula ndi kusunga.
2) Chifukwa chimodzi chomwe sichikuyenda bwino pakuchepetsa mafuta amafuta chinali “litany of loopholes” nthumwi za zilumba zazing'onozi adandaula za, kuphatikizirapo 'kuchepa' kudzera m'maukadaulo osatsimikizirika komanso kugwiritsa ntchito 'kusintha' kwa methane 'gasi wachilengedwe,' ngakhale methane ikatuluka, zotsatira zake zimakhala zamphamvu kuwirikiza 80+ kuposa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha kuposa CO2 pazaka 20, zomwe zimatsogolera. kuphwanya mfundo zenizeni, monga kufotokoza ndi kazembe wa zanyengo ku Marshall Islands, Tina Stege: "1.5 sizokambitsirana, ndipo izi zikutanthauza kutha kwa mafuta oyaka."
3) GST imavomereza kwathunthu gasi - "mafuta osinthika amatha kukhala ndi gawo lothandizira kusintha kwa mphamvu ndikuwonetsetsa chitetezo champhamvu" - zomwe mwa zina zikuwonetsa chizolowezi chobwera cha methane ku South Africa (chifukwa cha Creecy's kuvomereza Kufufuza kwa gasi kunyanja ndi TotalEnergies, Shell ndi ena); ndipo komabe, schizophrenically, ndi ndime 18 ya mgwirizano kufulumizitsa ndi kuchepetsa kwambiri mpweya wa carbon-dioxide padziko lonse, kuphatikizapo makamaka mpweya wa methane pofika chaka cha 2030,” mwa zina chifukwa cha kudzudzula kwa mpweya wa methane wochokera ku mkati mwa UN, makamaka kuchucha - ndi dera limodzi lodzaza ndi 'mpweya wapamwamba' ndi malo a malasha ku South Africa ku Mpumalanga.
4) Zozama kupanda chilungamo kwa nyengo chodziwika zotsatira, monga kukana komwe mayiko a Kumadzulo ndi BRICS+ akukana kuvomera mangawa omwe amalipira owononga, kapena ndalama zomvetsa chisoni zomwe zimaperekedwa ku thumba la Loss & Damage ($ 17.5 miliyoni kuchokera ku United States) komanso kuwononga ndalama zolimbana ndi nyengo. . Procedural Justice idaphwanyidwanso, malinga kwa wotsogolera zokambirana ku Samoa, Anne Rasmussen, atakwiyitsidwa ndi Al Jaber: "Munangopereka zisankho ndipo mayiko ang'onoang'ono omwe akutukuka kumene analibe m'chipindamo. Sikokwanira kuti tizingotchula za sayansi kenako n’kumapanga mapangano amene amanyalanyaza zimene sayansi imatiuza kuti tiyenera kuchita.”
5) Ngakhale pali a 'kupambana' thumba la Loss & Damage, ngakhale laling'ono bwanji (ndikuyendetsedwa ndi Banki Yadziko Lonse, wopereka ndalama zowononga mpweya woipa kwambiri), UNFCCC siyimapereka kuyankha ndipo ali analoledwa mbiri yakale ya malonjezo oti athyoledwe. Chitsanzo chofunikira kwambiri pakusayankha mlandu chinali mu June 2017 pomwe a Donald Trump adatulutsa US ku UNFCCC koma sanakumane ndi zilango zanyengo kapena chilango, zomwe zingabwerezedwe mu 2025.
6) Mabungwe otulutsa mpweya wambiri ndi BRICS+ yopangidwa ndi Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa kuphatikiza mamembala atsopano Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Egypt ndi Ethiopia - pamodzi ndi omwe amayang'anira 56% ya mpweya wapadziko lonse lapansi potengera 28% yokha. GDP yapadziko lonse lapansi. Msonkhano wake wa Okutobala 2024 udzakhala ndi Vladimir Putin, ndi malinga kwa mmodzi wa akuluakulu ake, "Russia ikukhutira ndi zotsatira zake pa zokambirana zanyengo za chaka chino… Moscow ikulandilanso mfundo yoti msonkhano wotsatira wanyengo uchitika ku Azerbaijan, dziko linanso lopanga mafuta ambiri komanso gawo la mgwirizano wa OPEC+.”
7) Creecy - wapampando (ndi Denmark) wa GST - adakondwerera chifukwa cholinga chake chachikulu chinali kuyimitsa ziletso zanyengo zomwe zidzakambidwe pa zinthu zopangidwa ndi mphamvu zotulutsa mpweya wambiri: "Ndife okondwanso kuwona kuti mawu omaliza akutsutsana ndi njira zosagwirizana (monga Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). Chigamulochi chikugogomezera kuti 'njira zosagwirizana sikuyenera kukhala njira yotsatsirana mopondereza kapena mopanda chifukwa kapena kuletsa malonda apadziko lonse lapansi'," zomwe zidzateteza kutulutsa mpweya wochuluka kuchokera ku BHP Billiton aluminiyamu ndi Arcelor Mittal zitsulo zosungunulira, mafakitale opangira mchere komanso migodi yakuya yomwe imayendetsedwa ndi mabungwe akunja, Sasol petrochemicals, ndi opanga magalimoto aku Germany-Japan omwe - monga maziko a gulu la mamembala 27 la Energy Intensive Users Group pano. kugwedeza 42% ya magetsi osowa ku South Africa pomwe ikupanga 20% yokha ya GDP (pamene ikuwononga mwachangu chuma chachilengedwe chosasinthika).
8) 'Zothetsera zabodza' zimapatsidwa mwayi watsopano wamoyo, monga, malinga ku CarbonBrief, "GST imatsegulanso chitseko chamtengo wapatali, kagawo kakang'ono komanso kosagwira ntchito zamakono zamakono monga kugwidwa ndi kusungirako mpweya wa carbon, blue hydrogen, misika ya carbon ndi geoengineering yokhala ndi chitetezo chosasamala, ndipo zomwe zingabweretse kuwonjezereka kwa nthaka, kusowa kwa madzi ndi kuipitsa koopsa makamaka kwa Amwenye ndi madera ena amitundu.”
9) Mgwirizano wofunikira pakati pa zovuta zanyengo ndi mavuto azachuma udanyalanyazidwa kotheratu, monga NGO DebtJustice adawona: “vuto la ngongole silinaganizidwe mokwanira m’mapangano a COP28. Mu Global Stocktake, zomwe zimadziwitsa mayiko momwe nyengo ikuyendera, ngongole imatchulidwa kamodzi kokha, pokhudzana ndi kufunikira kowonjezera ndalama zothandizira, zopanda ngongole zomwe zimapanga nyengo (pamene Mabaibulo akale anali ndi ziganizo zambiri pamfundo iyi). Ngakhale kuwunikira ndalama zotengera nyengo, panalibe zodziwikiratu kuti izi zitheke. Ngakhale malemba osiyanasiyana adatchula kufunika kwa "ndalama", zotsatira za vuto la ngongole ndi ngongole sizinavomerezedwe momveka bwino, mosiyana ndi "Sharm el-Sheikh Implementation Plan" kuchokera ku COP27. "
10) Monga George Monbiot akunena, "Cop28 idapangidwa kuti ikhale msonkhano woyamba wanyengo pomwe a zotsatira za dongosolo la chakudya anaganiziridwa bwino. Koma panthawiyi Othandizira 120 nyama ndi mkaka anali anachita zoyipa zawo, palibe chatanthauzo chimene chinachitika.”
Al Jaber ndi wotchuka kwambiri kunena chikhulupiriro chake (asanafike COP28) mu kuwonjezeka kupanga mafuta ndi gasi, makamaka kuchokera ku kampani yomwe amayendetsa, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company: "Palibe sayansi kunja uko - kapena palibe zochitika kunja uko - zomwe zimati kuchotsedwa kwa mafuta oyambira kufikitsa 1.5C."
Momwe kukondera kwachiwombankhanga kumeneku kudakhudza atsogoleri a COP kunali zoonekeratu kwa Associated Press: "Msonkhano wanyengo wa United Nations COP28 utatha Lachitatu, Sultan al-Jaber adatuluka ndi zomwe United Arab Emirates inkafuna nthawi yonseyi - kutchuka kochititsa zokambirana zomwe zidapangitsa kuti dziko lapansi livomereze kusiya mafuta oyaka. ndikutha kupopa mafuta ochulukirapo… Mayiko akumadzulo anali ndi malingaliro ofanana, pomwe nthumwi ya US John Kerry adakhala pafupi ndi al-Jaber miyezi ingapo isanayambe zokambirana. Mphamvu zomwe zikukula ku China ndi India zidayang'ana kwambiri kuwonetsetsa kuti kukwera kwawo sikungachedwe chifukwa chotseka magetsi awo oyaka ndi malasha. Ndipo opanga mafuta aku Gulf, motsogozedwa ndi Saudi Arabia yoyandikana nayo, akufuna kuwonetsetsa kuti minda yawo yamafuta imalowa m'badwo wotsatira kuti alimbikitse zofuna zawo zachuma. ”
Creecy waphunzira zambiri zopita patsogolo, zomwe - umboni wonse wosiyana - iye ntchito mu kuwunika kwake komaliza: "South Africa makamaka ikulandila ufulu wachibadwidwe wa anthu, kuphatikiza, komanso kutengapo mbali pazisankho zakusintha koyenera kwadziko lonse, momwe onse okhudzidwa ali ndi gawo lochita komanso ufulu wachitukuko ukulemekezedwa. Izi ndizofunikira kuti chilungamo chanyengo chikwaniritsidwe, padziko lonse lapansi komanso padziko lonse lapansi. ”
Koma zoona zake, wasankha mbali: BRICS+ owononga kwambiri ndi mabungwe aku Western mayiko. Chaka chimodzi kuchokera pano, pa COP29 ku Baku, Azerbaijan, zinthu zipitilirabe kuwonongeka potengera kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zankhondo pano ndi kulikonse - pokhapokha pakati pa 2024 osankhidwa aku South Africa alanga kuwononga mapulaneti, pakati pa machimo ena ambiri a Creecy's African. National Congress.
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