Mu 1965, Ho Chi Minh akufotokozedwa Mphatso ya Purezidenti wa US Lyndon Johnson adaphika theka la $ 1 biliyoni kwa a Vietnamese - komanso kuwopseza kuphulitsa kosatha - ngati "kaloti wovunda ndi ndodo yosweka." Cholinga cha National Liberation Front chinali chofuna kupeza ulamuliro wokwanira m'dziko logwirizana pogonjetsa gulu lankhondo lamphamvu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, ntchito yodabwitsa yomwe idamalizidwa m'zaka khumi (ngakhale zidawononga anzawo mamiliyoni awiri omwe adafa komanso oukira ankhanza a US 50,000).
M'masabata aposachedwa, opanga malonda aku Western nawonso, agwiritsa ntchito karoti ndi ndodo zawo, koma pokhapokha atasiyanitsidwa ndikuganiziridwanso, angopereka kupitiliza - m'malo mosiya - tsogolo la kukwera kwa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha, kutayika kwakukulu. ndi kuwonongeka chifukwa cha nyengo yoopsa, ndi kukana kwa owononga kuvomereza, kuchotseratu kubwezera, mbiri yakale ngongole ali ndi ngongole. Milandu iwiri yomwe tawonera pafupi, ndi kaloti ya Just Energy Transition Partnership ndi ndodo ya Carbon Border Adjustment. Ndiye, chowola ndi chiyani ndipo chasweka?
Amsterdam mavumbulutso
Tidayang'ana zamtsogolo zakusalungama kwanyengo Lachiwiri lapitalo, mkati mkangano ku Amsterdam pa Culture venue Ndi Balie, ndi kazembe wamkulu waku Dutch Jaime De Bourbon. Zokopa komanso zokongola, komabe kulephera kwa De Bourbon kuteteza Sharm El-Sheikh blahblahblah27 - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC) of the Parties (COP) - zinali zomveka: "Tikapita ku COP iyi ndipo sititero. sitiyenera, sitibwereranso ku Mgwirizano wa Glasgow, tapambana kale. Ndikutanthauza, kutanthauza kuti, kuima chilili kunali kopambana kale. "
Kodi kuima nji ndi kupindula, pamene dziko likuyaka, kuuma, kusungunuka ndi kumira? M'malo mwake, kuchuluka kwa magulu ankhondo, komwe kunachitiridwa umboni pakuvomerezedwa kwa boma la proto-fascist ku Egypt, zidalungamitsa Greta Thunberg. kukana kupezekapo: "Ma COP amagwiritsidwa ntchito makamaka ngati mwayi kwa atsogoleri ndi anthu omwe ali m'maudindo kuti apeze chidwi, pogwiritsa ntchito mitundu yosiyanasiyana yotsuka zobiriwira." Ndi Naomi Klein adanena kuti pa blahblahblah28 ku Dubai chaka chamawa, "Mabungwe apachiweniweni ayenera kulengeza zanyanyala m'malo mwake achite msonkhano wa anthu owona."
Kumbali yabwino, panali "Ndalama Yowonongeka ndi Yowonongeka" yomwe idakondweretsedwa kwambiri kuti ilipire omwe akhudzidwa ndi chipwirikiti chanyengo. Koma a De Bourbon adavomereza kuti linali bokosi lopanda kanthu - monga ambiri omwe UNFCCC yapereka mayiko osauka - ndikuti idakankhidwa kokha US ndi China "atasiya". Komabe kazembe wamkulu wa European Union adalimbikira molimba mtima, malinga ndi De Bourbon:
"Frans Timmermans anali ndi mphindi yosangalatsa panthawi yokambirana, pomwe adazindikira kuti tiyenera kupita patsogolo pambuyo pokambirana ndi nduna za EU zomwe zinali kumeneko. Anaganiza, tiyeni tipite ndipo analibe nthawi yolankhula ndi US kapena China kapena wina aliyense. Anapita kumsonkhanowo n’kunena kuti, ‘Anyamata tidzachita zimenezi koma tili ndi mikhalidwe iwiri.’ Ndipo pamene ananena zimenezo, U.S. Iwo anati, ‘Kodi chikuchitika n’chiyani, n’chifukwa chiyani tikupitiriza kuchita zimenezi, n’chifukwa chiyani sitinadziwe zimenezi? China idachita mantha, chifukwa Frans Timmermans adayika zinthu ziwiri.
"Anati, imodzi, iyenera kupita kumayiko omwe ali pachiwopsezo kwambiri, osati mayiko olemera omwe ali ndi mwayi wopeza ndalama, monga Egypt kapena ena. Koma kuyenera kukhala mayiko omwe amavutika kupeza ndalama komanso omwe ali pachiwopsezo kwambiri.
"Ndipo chachiwiri, maziko a ndalama ayenera kusintha. Tasankha m'zaka za m'ma 90 kuti ndi mayiko ati padziko lapansi panthawiyo omwe anali maiko otukuka, komanso omwe anali mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene, komanso kuti - mkati mwa dongosolo la nyengo la UN - akhalabe chimodzimodzi m'zaka 20 zapitazi. Pakalipano, kodi mukuganiza kuti South Korea ndi dziko lotukuka tsopano? munganene kuti, ‘ayi, ndi umodzi mwa chuma chapamwamba kwambiri padziko lapansi.’
Koma panthawiyo anali dziko losauka. Tsopano iwo ndi dziko lotukuka. Ndinganene, chimodzimodzi, ku Saudi Arabia. Kodi limenelo ndi dziko losauka? Qatar. Kodi limenelo ndi dziko losauka? Pali mayiko ambiri omwe amatchulidwabe kuti ndi mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene, omwe akuyenera kutchedwa maiko otukuka, ndipo akuthandizira kusintha kwanyengo, ndipo akuyeneranso kuthandizira kuyesetsa kuthetsa vutoli.
"Ndipo chachikulu ndi China. China pakali pano ndiye wowononga kwambiri. Ndiye inu mukuganiza, chabwino koma mbiriyakale iwo sanali. Chabwino ngati inu muyang'ana mbiri deta iwo lachitatu lalikulu kuipitsa. Ndiyeno mumati, chabwino, ndi dziko lalikulu kotero kuti munthu aliyense mwina siloipa. Koma pa munthu aliyense iwo ali pamwamba pa avareji ya Europe. Chifukwa chake palibe njira yomwe chuma chachiwiri chapadziko lonse lapansi - chokhala ndi mwayi waukulu waukadaulo masiku ano - kotero sakanatha kunena kuti China masiku ano idakali dziko lotukuka. Koma izo zikadali mu malingaliro ndi bungwe. Kotero iwo akugunda pakati pa mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene.
Ndipo pamene a Timmermans adati maziko a ndalama ayenera kubweretsedwa kumayiko onse otukuka, amatanthauza zonsezi. Chifukwa chake China idachita mantha chifukwa cha izi, koma idabwera, chifukwa chisankho chidapangidwa. Ndipo ndinganene kuti ndiko kupita patsogolo. "
Ifenso tikanati: si mayiko akumadzulo okha komanso BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa - yomwe idzachitikire kuno chaka chamawa pamene Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria ndi Egypt nawonso adzapempha kuti alowe mu "BRICS+") maiko ena ochepa omwe akutukuka kumene ali ndi ngongole zanyengo. Ndipo izi sizili choncho pokhapokha pokhudzana ndi kutulutsa mpweya, komanso ngati tikonza 1) zokhudzana ndi malonda a 'emissions outsourcing', 2) udindo wa munthu aliyense ndi 3) mbiri yakale ya kuipitsidwa.
Nthawi zina mosabisa kanthu, De Bourbon ananenaponso za m'modzi mwa omwe amakambirana nawo kuchokera ku Pretoria, Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Gwede Mantashe:
“Mtumiki wa mphamvu ku South Africa amadzitcha ‘minister of malasha,’ kungokuuzani kumene maganizo ali. Osati nduna ya mphamvu: ‘Timati, sindisamala kumene ikuchokera, bola ikupereka mphamvu.’ Iye amadzitcha yekha nduna ya malasha. Kotero ndi chinthu chovuta kwambiri, ngati muyang'ana ku South Africa, mpweya ndi waukulu kwambiri, waukulu kwambiri ku Africa. Kotero si wozunzidwa. Ndi gawo la vuto komanso. Ndicho chifukwa chake tiyenera kugwira ntchito ndi South Africa. Ndiye chifukwa chake ndalama zikupita komweko. ”
Ah, koma kodi mfundoyi sikutsutsana ndi yoyambayo (ndalama ziyenera "kupita kumayiko omwe ali pachiwopsezo kwambiri," osati omwe ali ndi mwayi wopeza ndalama, zomwe South Africa imachita chifukwa chamisika yozama kwambiri yangongole)? Osadandaula, pakadali pano - koma vuto lakupitilira ngongole zandalama zimachitika, makamaka pamene Azungu adabwereketsa ku South Africa monyansidwa kwambiri ngongole zakufa pazaka khumi ndi ziwiri zapitazi.
Tidapeza mwayi wotsutsana makamaka chifukwa ogwirizana nawo ku Yunivesite ya Amsterdam adalimbikitsa "Siyani Mafuta Otsalira Pansi Pansi” pulojekiti - kuphatikiza kuchokera ku Quito's Simon Bolivar University ndi Accion Ecologica, akujambula makamaka pazovuta zawo. Yasuni pempho - kuzindikira zapakati pa South Africa ngati chandamale choyambirira cha kaloti ndikumamatira zokambirana zanyengo.
Ponena za karoti, a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), a De Bourbon anali ndi chidwi ndi kuthekera kothawa njira yodzimbidwa ya United Nations:
"Tidapangana kale chaka chatha ndi South Africa $8.5 biliyoni, pakusintha mphamvu. Ndipo zomwezo zinachitika pa COP ndi Indonesia: $ 20 biliyoni pakusintha mphamvu. Kotero ndiye mukuwona kusintha kwa ndalama kumeneko, ndipo pali njira yatsopano yogwirira ntchito. Tikuwona kuti zichitika ndi India, mwina Vietnam, mwina Senegal. Tikuwona ngati titha kukhala ndi zinthu zamtunduwu. ”
Kodi dziko la South Africa likuyenera kuthandizidwa pochotsa mpweya wa mphamvu ya Eskom ya 40,000 Megawatts ya mphamvu ya malasha? Kale pa tsiku lachilimwe, gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a mphamvuzo silinagwire ntchito chifukwa cha zofooka za ukalamba ndi ngozi zosatha, zomwe zimayambitsa kuzimitsidwa kwamagetsi (ie maola angapo a "load shedding" tsiku lililonse). Inde, Eskom ikufuna kwambiri ndalama zothandizira kukonza, kukonza ndi kubwezeretsanso masiteshoni oyaka malasha. Koma mabungwe aboma akusweka kosalekeza, akulephera kubweza ngongole zake zokwana $24 biliyoni.
Posaka ndalama mwachangu mu Novembala 2021, koyambirira kwa Glasgow COP26, mgwirizano wambali wa "Just Energy Transition Partnership" (JETP) wokwana $8.5 biliyoni udalengezedwa mosapumira ndi boma la Pretoria ndi CEO wa Eskom Andre de Ruyter ndi anzawo aku Paris, Berlin. , London, Washington ndi Brussels. Phukusi lomaliza la JETP, lomwe linavumbulutsidwa patapita chaka ku Sharm El-Sheikh, silikufuna kungoyamba kutseka magetsi opangira malasha mofulumira, komanso lithandizira kupanga magalimoto amagetsi ndi hydrogen yobiriwira. Koma tiyenera kuyang’anitsitsa kwambiri mphatso imeneyi.
Karoti wovunda amawoneka ngati chokoma kwa munthu yemwe wasowa chochita
Lingaliro lalikulu la kaloti wa JETP wakumadzulo likuwonetsa kufunikira kwanthawi yayitali mu kayendetsedwe ka chilungamo chanyengo kusiya mafuta otsalira pansi mobisa kuti agulitse ndalama zaku Western. Izi ndizofunikira kwambiri kuti anthu akhale ndi moyo. Koma zingakhale zomveka ngati ndalamazo zimaganiziridwa kuti ndi a kubweza ngongole yanyengo yomwe mayiko omwe amatulutsa kwambiri kwa omwe akukhudzidwa ndi nyengo yotentha kwambiri.
Pazokambirana za JETP kuyambira pakati pa 2021, mavuto angapo adawonekera: kusatenga nawo mbali kwa madera okhudzidwa ndi ogwira ntchito; okambitsirana a chikhulupiliro choyipa ku South Africa, malinga ndi kutulutsa kwa Eskom kunachitika limodzi ndi kusaka komaliza kwa mafuta ochulukirapo komanso mwayi wotulutsa mpweya wa methane; Kutengera kwa Eskom kubweza ndalama zomwe zikubwera kuzinthu zamagesi a methane; kubweza mosalekeza kwa ngongole ku Eskom yomwe inkathandizira ndalama zamakampani achinyengo opangira magetsi a malasha; ndi kuvomereza momveka bwino machitidwe owopsa a Eskom, kuphatikiza kulekanitsa tsankho.
JETP inakhazikitsidwa pamwamba pansi, popanda kukambirana ndi anthu. Panthawi imodzimodziyo zokambirana zinali kuyamba, dziko la South Africa linali kulimbikitsa makampani awiri a Big Oil - London-based Shell and Paris-based TotalEnergies (ndi mabwenzi angapo ang'onoang'ono ang'onoang'ono) - kuti afufuze mpweya wa methane m'madzi opitirira makilomita 4. chakuya. Mogwirizana ndi malingaliro a Mantashe, Pretoria yakhala ikulimbikitsanso kukumba malasha kosalekeza ndikuwononga madola mamiliyoni mazana ambiri kukonza mayendedwe anjanji potumiza malasha kunja. Mapulani akuchulukirachulukira opangira ma generator a Liquified Natural Gas ndi zida zina zamagesi.
Pamene okambirana adatenga nthawi yawo kupyola mu 2022 kuti adziwe momwe ndalama zokwana madola 8.5 biliyoni zingakwezedwe bwino ndikugawidwa, malonda monga mwachizolowezi adawonetsa kuchira kwapambuyo kwa Covid: kudalira malasha ndi dizilo kupitilira 90 peresenti yamagetsi opanga mphamvu; zoyendera zochokera kwathunthu pa injini kuyaka mkati; migodi yakuya yamagetsi, kusungunula ndi kupanga mafakitale; kutsitsimuka kwa zokopa alendo zakutali (zotulutsa mpweya wambiri); ulimi wogwiritsa ntchito feteleza; kumanganso madera okulirapo, maofesi amalonda ndi malo oyendera magalimoto; ndi zotayiramo zomwe zinyalala zake zosasankhidwa zimalavula methane.
Ntchito zina zazikulu zokhala ndi zotsalira zakale zikupitilira: malo okwana $ 10 biliyoni aku China metallurgical Special Economic Zone, komanso pafupi, kukulitsa njanji yotumiza malasha ku doko la Richards Bay, komwe makasitomala ake amakula tsopano aku Europe, China ndi India. . Ndipo kutulutsa mpweya waukulu wa methane kudzayambitsidwa kudzera mu Turkey Karpowerships zitatu zomwe zimawononga $ 50 biliyoni pa mgwirizano wazaka 12.5, malo otetezedwa ndi World Bank-Promoted Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), mafakitale awiri opangira gasi a Eskom omwe amawononga $ 20 biliyoni, ndi Kukula kwa $ 5 biliyoni ku port-petrochemical ku Durban.
Chodetsa nkhawa kwambiri, asitikali ankhondo aku South Africa opitilira 1000 adatumizidwa ndi Pretoria pakati pa 2021 kumtunda, m'chigawo cha Cabo Delgado ku Mozambique, polimbana ndi gulu la zigawenga lotchedwa Al-Shabaab. Asilikali akuyenera kuthandizira kutulutsa kwa "Blood Methane" ndi Total, ENI, ExxonMobil ndi China National Petroleum m'dera lomwe anthu miliyoni imodzi athawa kwawo chifukwa chankhondo ndipo pafupifupi zikwi zisanu amwalira. Mphepo zamkuntho zazikulu zagunda kumpoto kwa Mozambique, imodzi mu 2019 yomwe idawononga Cabo Delgado ndi mphepo ya 225km / h.
De Ruyter sali yekha, chifukwa chimodzi mwazinthu zokopa kwambiri zamakampani, National Business Initiative, imathandizira methane yambiri. Ndipo Mkulu wa Eskom akulimbikitsa ndondomeko yakeyake yosintha malasha kupita ku LNG - pogwiritsa ntchito 44 peresenti ya ndalama za JETP - pogwiritsa ntchito mfundo zabodza zoti gasiyo ndi wanthawi yochepa.
Koma palibe paliponse mu JETP pomwe kuwonongeka kulikonse kwa carb ku South Africa ndikoletsedwa komanso chifukwa cha "fungibility" yandalama, popeza De Ruyter amalandila ndalama zopitilira 8 biliyoni pazachuma chatsopano chifukwa cha decarbonisation, atha kulozanso ndalama zina ku meth yomwe akufuna. kuledzera.
Polimbana ndi karoti yovunda ya EU komanso chizolowezi cha methane, ziwonetsero zikuchulukirachulukira
Kukaniza kudayambanso ku South Africa, ndi network imodzi yomwe ikupita patsogolo - Climate Justice Charter Movement - akuitanira pa mayiko ogwirizana kuti ayambe kunyanyala JETP. Ndipo zowawa kwambiri kwa Shell, Total ndi omwe adagwiritsa ntchito zotsalira zakale, mazana a zionetsero zidayamba m'mphepete mwa nyanja, m'malo awo opangira mafuta komanso m'makampani ena ogwirizana monga momwe JETP idalengezera. Kuphatikizika kwapadera kwa midzi ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, asodzi omwe amangokhalira kupha nsomba, oteteza m'madzi, oyendera zachilengedwe, oyendetsa mafunde komanso okonda zanyengo adasunga nkhani zakuphulika kwa zivomezi m'mphepete mwa nyanja ya Indian ndi Atlantic Ocean.
Mogwirizana ndi ochita ziwonetsero, kasanu ndi kawiri kumapeto kwa 2021 mpaka Seputembara 2022, maloya okhudzidwa ndi anthu adapereka zigamulo za khothi motsutsana ndi kuphulika kwa Big Oil kunyanja, ndikupambana asanu ndi mmodzi. Milanduyi idafika pachimake pomwe Shell ndi Impact Oil&Gas - motsogozedwa ndi wabizinesi wapa kasino-hotelo-media-transport (komanso mtsogoleri wakale wa Marxist) Johnny Copelyn - adaletsedwa ndi Khothi Lalikulu kuti asaphulikenso kunyanja, pazifukwa zina zosagwirizana ndi Copelyn. (monga palibe zidziwitso m'chinenero chachikulu chakumaloko, Chixhosa), mwina chifukwa cha kusokonekera kwa midzi ya anthu akuda a m'mphepete mwa nyanja ku Wild Coast ocean, ndipo mwina chifukwa cha zolakwika zanyengo ndi malingaliro amabizinesi. (Pa November 28, Shell ndi Copelyn anapitanso kukhoti kukachita apilo mlanduwo.)
Pakadali pano, chifukwa cha oyimbira mluzu kuchokera ku chipani cholamula cha African National Congress (ANC) komanso kampeni yapadera ya utsogoleri wa Purezidenti Cyril Ramaphosa mu 2017, zidawonekeratu kuti otsutsa sakutsutsana ndi zomwe makampani amafuta akuti 'chitukuko chachuma', komanso mphatso zambiri. ku ANC ($1.1 miliyoni ya Shell) ndi Ramaphosa ($140,000 ya Copelyn). Kusasamalira bwino kwa Ramaphosa pazachuma chake - makamaka $ 600,000 pakugulitsa nyama pa imodzi mwamalo ake - adawopsezanso, kumapeto kwa Novembala, kuti zipangitsa kuti pulezidenti waku South Africa atsutsidwe koyamba.
Ndipo wapampando wa ANC yosokonekera pazachuma (yomwe monga olemba anzawo ntchito, atsalira zaka zisanu pakupereka inshuwaransi ya msonkho ndi ulova) ndi Mantashe. Kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2022 zomwe ankaziganizira kuti katangale - komanso kukhala pafupi ndi kampani yodziwika bwino ya abale a Watson ya Bosasa - zidapangitsa kuti aimbidwe mlandu kuchokera ku Zondo Commission into State Capture, bungwe lovomerezeka kuti liwulule zomwe zidachitika mu 2009 - Jacob Zuma. 18, pomwe Mantashe anali Secretary General wa ANC.
Ndalama zobisika za ngongole ndi momwe zinthu zilili zimawononga chuma
JETP idzaunjikiranso pangongole pafupifupi yolimba kwambiri: poyambira $8.245 biliyoni, ndi 3 peresenti yokha ya ndalamazo ngati thandizo. Ngakhale ngongole za US ($ 1 biliyoni) ndi Britain ($ 500 miliyoni) ziyenera kuperekedwa ndi mabanki opeza phindu pamitengo yamsika, mabungwe a ngongole aku Europe adzapereka ngongole 'yokongoletsedwa' pang'ono. Komabe, chifukwa ngongole ndi zandalama zolimba komanso ndalama za ku South Africa zikutsika, Eskom ikumana ndi kubweza kovutirapo mzaka zikubwerazi. Mu Epulo 2022, Rand/$ inali R14.3/$ koma pofika nthawi ya COP27, inali itatsika kufika pa R18.4/$.
Sikuti mitengoyo ndi yokwera mtengo yokha ikaganiziridwa kuti ndi 'yothandiza kwenikweni' (kuphatikiza kutsika kwa ndalama), ndalama zolimba sizofunikira pazinthu zambiri za JETP (monga malipiro), tsopano komanso makamaka m'tsogolo, popeza zopangira zakomweko zimalowa m'malo mwa zongowonjezera zomwe zidabwera kuchokera kunja. zigawo za mphamvu. Eskom ikuyenera kudzipangira yokha mphamvu zongowonjezera mphamvu zamkati ndi kusunga mphamvu, ndipo isapitilize kugulitsa magetsi mwachinsinsi kudzera m'makontrakitala akunja amagetsi adzuwa ndi mphepo. Iyenera kugwedeza kudalira kwa 2010s pamakampani opanga mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa m'mayiko osiyanasiyana omwe amabwezera phindu ndi zopindula kumayiko awo.
JETP ipereka ndalama ku Eskom methane switch, imalola kubweza ngongole zachinyengo ndi
Kumbali imodzi, JETP ndiyofunika - mu fomu ya thandizo osati ngongole - kuthandiza Eskom kuchoka pa kudalira kwambiri malasha ndikuwonetsetsa Kusintha Kwachilungamo kwa ogwira ntchito ndi madera omwe akhudzidwa. Ku cimbi cimbi, cikombiso cimo cimo cili ca kuti de Ruyter a pfuxiza porogiramu ya kubikisa gasi ya methane - loyi a tiyeketela ku tirhisa 44% ya timali ta JETP - ku katsa na 1000 MW eka ndhawu ya fanti ya xikarhi leyi tshameke yi ngheneka ka malaha ya Komati. Pa November 6, Purezidenti wa Banki Yadziko Lonse David Malpass - yemwe masabata asanu ndi limodzi m'mbuyomo adauzidwa ndi Al Gore kuti atule pansi udindo chifukwa cha manyazi chifukwa chokana kusintha kwa nyengo - adapatsa Eskom ngongole ya $ 500 miliyoni kuti ntchitoyi ifulumire ndipo anapita ku Komati.
Fakitale ina ya gasi ya Eskom ikuganiziridwa kuti ikhale mzinda wotumiza malasha ku Richards Bay, wokhala ndi malo a World Bank LNG okonza Blood Methane ya ku Mozambique. Bungwe la South Durban Community Environmental Alliance, lomwe lili ndi ofesi yatsopano ku Richards Bay komanso mothandizidwa ndi Center for Environmental Rights, lili kale m’makhoti akutsutsa nyumbayi.
Kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama za EU zomwe cholinga chake ndi decarbonisation m'malo mwa gasi wa methane ndizotheka, koma ndikutsimikiza kuti ngongole ya Eskom yomwe ilipo kale idzathandizidwa pogwiritsa ntchito ndalamazi. Zili choncho chifukwa cha mafakitale awiri okha omwe amawotchedwa ndi malasha - Medupi ndi Kusile (pa 4800 MW iliyonse, malo akuluakulu opangira magetsi oyaka ndi malasha omwe akumangidwa kulikonse) - omwe kontrakitala wawo, Hitachi, adapereka 25 peresenti ya madera ake. wothandizira ku ANC ku 2007. Chotsatira chake, mu 2015, Hitachi adatsutsidwa bwino pansi pa U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, kulipira Washington chindapusa cha $ 19 miliyoni (ndipo palibe ku South Africa komwe kampani ya Tokyo idathawa mpaka pano).
Kumayambiriro kwa 2008, zonyansazo zidawonekera poyera. Komabe obwereketsa a Eskom posakhalitsa anaphatikiza mabanki otumiza kunja ku West ndi World Bank, yomwe idapanga ngongole yake yayikulu kwambiri ku Medupi mu 2010 ($3.75 biliyoni). Ngongole yatsopano ya Eskom ya JETP imalola kuti ibweze ngongole zakale, ndikupangitsa kuti ziphuphu za Medupi-Kusile zikhale zovomerezeka. Ndi chisembwere kwa angongole kusameta ‘tsitsi’ pa ngongolezi. Ndalama za JETP siziyenera kulipira ngongole ya Eskom ya Odious.
Eskom ikufunika mwachangu zowonjezera zowonjezera, koma "mbali yofunikira" ya gridi yamagetsi ndiyofunikiranso. Wogula wamkulu, wogwiritsa ntchito kuposa 5 peresenti ya gridi, ndi BHP Billiton (South32, yochokera ku Melbourne, Australia). Chombo chake chosungunula aluminiyamu cha Richards Bay chimalowetsa chinthu chachikulu (bauxite), ndikuchikonza ndi mphamvu yamalasha pamtengo wa 10 peresenti chabe ya zomwe ogula wamba amalipira. Zogulitsa ndi phindu zimatumizidwa kunja.
Kugwiritsiridwa ntchito molakwika kwa magetsi kofananako kumachitika pafakitale ya Sasol's Secunda - dziko la CO2 gwero lotulutsa mpweya - komwe malo oyenga mafuta m'nthawi ya tsankho amafinya malasha kuti apange mafuta amadzimadzi (omwe akanatha kutumizidwa kunja, pamtengo wotsika kwambiri wa chilengedwe). Mabomba akuyenera kutsekedwa nthawi yomweyo, ndi chithandizo chachangu cha Just Transition choperekedwa kwa anthu okhudzidwa ndi ogwira ntchito.
Ndondomeko ndi machitidwe a Eskom akufunika kusinthidwa
Kulingalira zolinga za Eskom ngati kukhala ndi gawo lililonse la "Nyenyezi Yokha" sikuthekadi. Eskom idakali yodzaza ndi ziphuphu za ogwira ntchito, malinga ndi akaunti zonse. Akuluakulu awiri akulu akulu mu 2010s - Brian Molefe ndi Matshele Koko - adamangidwa chifukwa chachinyengo chamtengo wapatali cha mabiliyoni a madola mu Okutobala. Ndipo mfundo zosiyanitsidwa ndi De Ruyter zomwe adakhazikitsa madera akuda mkati mwa 2020 (nthawi yachisanu mkati mwa kutseka kwa mliri wa Covid-19) - zomwe amati "kuchepetsa katundu" ndipo otsutsa amazitcha "tsankho lamphamvu" - zidakulitsidwa ndi lingaliro lake lapakati pa 2022. kuthetsa kugawikana kwa magetsi kwa anthu osauka. JETP imathandizira kwathunthu mfundo zakumbuyo izi.
Eskom sinatengepo mwachidwi nkhani ya Just Transition. Zowonadi, malo opangira magetsi otenthetsera malasha ndi migodi tsopano amapha anthu masauzande ambiri okhala pafupi chaka chilichonse chifukwa cha kuipitsidwa ndi tinthu tating'onoting'ono, pomwe a De Ruyter akukana kutsatira zomwe khothi lidalamula kuti atseke majenereta kapena kukhazikitsa zotsukira kutulutsa mpweya, zomwe zimabweretsa pakati pa malo owopsa kwambiri padziko lapansi a SO2 ndi NO.
Zina zing'onozing'ono za JETP sizimapangidwanso bwino. Zothandizira zamagalimoto amagetsi - zoperekedwa kudzera kumakampani agalimoto aku Western (makamaka Germany ndi Japan) - sizingagulitsidwe kwa anthu ambiri aku South Africa, ndipo palibe njira zopangira mafuta. JETP imaperekanso ndalama zothandizira kulimbikitsa hype yobiriwira ya Sasol. Koma izi ndizothekanso kuwongolera mphamvu yamagetsi yongowonjezedwanso ya ku South Africa - mwachitsanzo. machumuni a sola omwe akuyenera kudyetsa gridi ya dziko lonse - kumalo opangira ma H2 opangidwa ndi kampani ya Saldanha, m'malo mokwaniritsa zosowa zakomweko.
Kodi kulangidwa kwanyengo kudzakhala sjambock yowawa - kapena m'malo mwake, nthambi yogawanika?
Nthawi zambiri zimawoneka kuti olamulira aku South Africa akungoyenda pang'ono kuti agwiritse ntchito mphamvu zowonjezera chifukwa cha zilango zanyengo zomwe zikulepheretsa ogwirizana ndi chipani cholamula kugulitsa kunja. Pali kuthekera kwakukulu kuti zilangozo zikhale ngati kumenyedwa koopsa, kosalekeza kuchokera ku mwambi wodziwika bwino waku South Africa sjambock (chikwapu) - koma zikuwonekeratu kuti akuluakulu a EU akonda kugwiritsa ntchito ndodo yothyoka, kwenikweni nthambi.
Malonda a mayiko ena anali ofunikira kwenikweni ku capitalism ya ku South Africa yomwe malonda ake / GDP yake idafika pa 73 peresenti mu 2008, pamene kuchuluka kwa malonda kunakwera kwambiri. Koma chiŵerengero chimenecho chinachepa ku South Africa (kutsika ndi 51 peresenti mu 2020) ndipo pafupifupi kwina kulikonse panthawi ya "kuchepa kwa mayiko" (kapena monga The Economist imayika, "kuchepetsa"), ndi kuphatikiza kwachinyengo cha capitalist, kutembenukira kwa China kuzinthu zamabizinesi amkati, chitetezo chakumadzulo (monga momwe adadzuka mu 2016 ndi Donald Trump ndi Brexit) komanso kukakamiza zachilengedwe zomwe zawonjezera mwayi wofalitsa zilango zanyengo. mayiko otulutsa mpweya wambiri.
Kukhazikitsidwa kwa zilango zanyengo kudzachokera ku US, Europe ndi UK, omwe ali ndi udindo wogula ?? peresenti ya akatswiri a ku South Africa. EU ikhala yoyamba, ndikuyambitsa njira yake ya Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM) pa Januware 1.
Ngakhale ikukumana ndi mphamvu zaku Western imperialist, CBAM ngati ndondomeko yamalonda yokhudzana ndi chilengedwe imakhala yomveka bwino. Popanda izo, apamwamba CO2 Mlingo wochokera kumayiko omwe ali ndi mphamvu zonyansa "ungathe" kulowa mu EU pamene makampani amatulutsa malonda awo pamene ayang'anizana ndi malamulo okhwima a nyengo ndipo, kuti akhalebe opikisana, afufuze ndalama zotsika mtengo za mafakitale ndi zopangira kuchokera kunja.
South Africa ndi mayiko ena azachuma omwe ali ndi magawo okwera kwambiri a CO2 ophatikizidwa muzogulitsa zawo - kaya mwachindunji kapena kudzera mumphamvu zonyansa ndi zoyendera - ziyenera kulimbikitsidwa kuti zisinthe mwachangu kupita kumalo ongowonjezedwanso. Njira imodzi ndi kudzera m'mitengo yokwera ya EU yomwe imayikidwa pa katundu wa SA kupita ku Europe, komanso m'zaka za m'ma 2020 kupitanso kumayiko ena azachuma aku Western omwe adzalandira CBAM.
Zomwe zidzakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi SA zogulitsa kunja zidzakhala aluminiyamu ndi chitsulo, koma zina zambiri - zinthu zina zokumbidwa ndi zitsulo, mafuta a petrochemicals, magalimoto ndi makina opanga mpweya wambiri - zonsezi zidzabweretsedwa mu ukonde wa CBAM, chifukwa cha utsi wawo wachindunji komanso wosalunjika. .
Njira yokhayo yodzitetezera ku South Africa ndikukweza msonkho wake wa kaboni kumlingo wa msika wa kaboni wa EU, mwachitsanzo, kuchokera ku zomwe Eskom ndi Sasol (zowononga ziwiri zazikulu kwambiri) zimalipira - ndalama zokwana $ 0.35 / tonne ya CO2 yotulutsidwa - kupita ku Europe. milingo. Mwachitsanzo, mtengo ndi $93/tani pamsika wa carbon Emissions Trading Scheme waku Europe, ndi $130/tonne kuti apereke msonkho wa kaboni waku Sweden.
Pretoria sichingafanane ndi izi, chifukwa cha ubale wamphamvu ku South Africa womwe udalimbikitsidwa ndi gulu lamphamvu kwambiri la Energy Intensive Users Group: dazeni zitatu makamaka zakunja ndi makampani osungunula omwe amagwiritsa ntchito magetsi opitilira 40 peresenti pomwe akupanga zosakwana 20 peresenti yamagetsi. chuma cha dziko.
Kulumikizana ndi maukonde okulirapo - Business Unity South Africa - ogula magetsi ambiri posachedwa adanenanso kuti "bizinesi ndi chuma cha SA sizingagwirizane ndi kukwera kwa misonkho ya carbon" yomwe ikukonzekera: kukwera kwa $ 30 / tonne yokha 2030 (yomwe ndi 1 peresenti ya zomwe zaposachedwa za "Social Cost of Carbon" zikuwonetsa kuti ziyenera kukhala).
Ngakhale zili choncho, andale komanso likulu lazakudya zikuwoneka kuti ali ndi mantha ndi CBAM. Ramaphosa adavumbulutsa nkhawa zazikulu za CBAM m'makalata a Purezidenti mu Okutobala 2021: "Pamene omwe timagwira nawo malonda akwaniritsa cholinga chotulutsa mpweya wopanda mpweya wokwanira, akuyenera kuonjezera ziletso pakulowetsa katundu wopangidwa pogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu ya carbon. Chifukwa chakuti malonda athu ambiri amadalira magetsi opangidwa ndi malasha, tingaone kuti zinthu zomwe timatumiza kumayiko osiyanasiyana zikukumana ndi zopinga zamalonda ndipo, kuwonjezera apo, ogula m’maiko amenewo sangafune kugula zinthu zathu.”
Makampani akuluakulu monga BHP Billiton (South32) ndi Anglo American ayambanso kufunafuna mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu kuti asagwere msonkho wa kunja. Mitsempha yasokonekera kwambiri moti mu Novembala 2022, nduna yowona za chilengedwe ku South Africa, Barbara Creecy, idavomereza chidzudzulo ku Brazil-South Africa-India-China kuti: “Zotsatira zosagwirizana ndi tsankho, monga misonkho ya carbon border, zomwe zingapangitse kusokonekera kwa msika ndi kukulitsa kukhulupirirana. Kuperewera pakati pa Maphwando, kuyenera kupewedwa.
Zigawo za ndodo za CBAM
Poganizira mantha awa, zilango za CBAM zidzakhala zothandiza kwa olimbikitsa chilungamo cha chilengedwe, Koma ngati akulangizidwa mwachilungamo. makamaka zikafika pakulipira antchito ndi madera omwe amakumana ndi mavuto azachuma chifukwa cha kulephera kwamakampani kuchita decarbonise.
CBAM yokhala ndi umphumphu imafuna kusinthidwa katatu. Choyamba, mfundo zanyengo zaposachedwa kwambiri za EU zinali lingaliro la Julayi 2022 lotcha mpweya wa methane ndi nyukiliya ngati "wobiriwira" mkati mwa EU mphamvu "taxonomy". Izi ziyenera kusinthidwa nthawi yomweyo mogwirizana ndi sayansi yanyengo, popeza methane ndi yamphamvu kuwirikiza 85 kuposa CO.2 ndipo mphamvu ya nyukiliya imakhalabe yoopsa kwambiri.
Chachiwiri, kukonzanso kwina kumakhudza mtengo wa CBAM. Tsoka ilo, mulingo wa zilango zakunja, kuchokera ku 2026, ulumikizidwa ndi bloc's Emissions Trading Scheme, yomwe yavutika ndi kusakhazikika kwamitengo kuyambira 2005. Kumayambiriro kwa Marichi 2022, pambuyo pakuwukira kwa Putin, idagwa 40 peresenti, kuchokera pafupi ndi $ 100 mpaka $ 60 pa tonne, ndipo kachiwiri mu Seputembala idagwa kuchokera pa $ 88 mpaka $ 72 / tonne pomwe Putin adadula gasi. Kuyembekezera kuti misika yazachuma ipereke chizindikiro chenicheni chamitengo ndikupusa chifukwa misika iyi ndiyosokonekera ndipo imakhudzidwa ndi zofuna za azandalama padziko lonse lapansi.
Chachitatu, pothana ndi milandu ya "imperialism!", Europe iyenera kubweza ngongole yake yayikulu yanyengo potumiza ndalama za CBAM ku zomwe zidakhudzidwa. ogwira ntchito ndi madera omwe katundu wawo amaperekedwa msonkho - nthawi zina mpaka kutsekedwa kwa makampani awo. Izi sizingakhale zogwirizana ndi chikhalidwe cha mgwirizano, komanso ndi malingaliro a Kusintha Kwachilungamo.
Kusuntha kotsitsimutsa kaloti ndikulimbitsa ndodo
Zionetsero ndi zotsutsana ndi makhothi zotsutsana ndi kuchotsedwa kwa mafuta ochulukirapo komanso kuyaka ku South Africa zipitilira ndipo mpaka pano ndi njira yolimbikitsa kwambiri pakukonzanso komwe kwalephereka chifukwa cha kugawikana kwamagulu ogwira ntchito komanso kugawika kwamagulu. Komabe, izi zidzachepetsa pang'onopang'ono koma mwina sizingaimitse ntchito zosiyanasiyana zokhala ndi mpweya wochuluka, chifukwa cha kukana kwa makhothi kutsutsa ufulu wa katundu waumwini ndi zovomerezeka za ndondomeko zachuma za boma.
Omenyera chilungamo pazanyengo amafunikira mgwirizano wina akakumana ndi ziwopsezo zagasi, mafuta ndi malasha. Anthu a ku Ulaya omwe ali ndi zolinga zabwino anathandizira kumenyera ufulu wa anthu a ku South Africa poika zilango zachuma kwa makampani omwe amapanga phindu kuchokera ku upandu wotsutsana ndi anthu, zomwe pofika 1985 zinafika pachimake chothetsa tsankho pamene mgwirizano wolimba wa bizinesi ya azungu ndi dziko latsankho linasweka. Mfundo yomweyi ikugwiranso ntchito: ndi chilungamo cha nyengo ya ku South Africa, magulu a anthu ndi ogwira ntchito nthawi zambiri amawonetsa kugwedezeka ndi kupindula pang'ono, komabe ndi, kachiwiri, kupyolera mu mgwirizano wapadziko lonse kuti kupambana kwakukulu kudzachitika.
Akuluakulu aku Europe akhala akudzibweza kwa nthawi yayitali chifukwa chotenga utsogoleri wotsogola komanso wowona pazanyengo, ngakhale zotsatira zake zimakhala zazing'ono poyerekeza ndi ntchito yomwe ikugwira. Osachepera ku South Africa, pakhoza kukhala mwayi m'miyezi ikubwera yopereka karoti yatsopano yosavunda ndikunyamula ndodo yayikulu, osati nthambi yosweka yomwe ikuwonetsedwa.
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