World Economic Forum ikukumana ku Davos sabata ino. Kusonkhanitsidwa kwa anthu olemera kwambiri amakampani ndi atsogoleri a maboma kukakamiza kulingalira za njira zomwe chipwirikiti chadziko lonse chingatitengere mu 2023. Kodi taphunzirapo chiyani pakutsika kwa chuma chambiri chotere - kuphatikiza chuma cha otsogolera otsogola - mu 2022? pakati pa kuzunzika kochuluka kwa dziko, chilengedwe ndi chikhalidwe ndi zachuma?
Mwa zina zikuwonetsedwa mu zatsopano za Forum Global Risk Report 2023, pali mantha atsopano pakati pa opezekapo 2,700, omwe chaka chino - 53rd Msonkhano woterewu motsogozedwa ndi Klaus Schwab - akuphatikiza atsogoleri a European Union, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, Germany, Finland, Greece, Spain, Philippines, South Korea ndi South Africa, pamodzi ndi mabiliyoni 100 (koma palibe ochokera ku Russia chifukwa cha zilango. ).
Mutu wa Forum, "Co-operation in a Fragmented World" ukuwonetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mawu atsopano (otchuka posachedwapa ndi katswiri wa zachuma pa yunivesite ya Columbia Adam Tooze): "Tili ndi chiopsezo cha polycrisis kuonekera," wolowa m'malo wa Schwab Saadia Zahidi akutsutsa, "chifukwa. zinthu zambiri zikuchitika nthawi imodzi.” Munthawi ya kulowererapo kopanda ntchito kwa mayiko ambiri, buku laposachedwa la katswiri wazachuma ku New York University Nouriel Roubini likuwonetsa zovuta zapadziko lonse lapansi mpaka khumi. MegaThreats.
Ambiri omwe afika ku Forum amadziwa bwino kukula kwachuma kwa polycrisis. Ngakhale kupitilira chiwonongeko cha mabiliyoni angapo a madola okhudzana ndi kuwukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine, kusokonekera kwa msika wamagetsi ndi chakudya, masoka anyengo, kukhazikika kwa Covid-19 kapena kutha kwadzidzidzi kwa China pakutseka kwa miliri, pakhala kusintha kwina kwaukadaulo momwe chuma chimayamikiridwa. zomwe zimadetsa nkhawa anthu osankhika awa, omwe ambiri amabwera ku Davos osauka kwambiri kuposa msonkhano wam'mbuyomu Meyi watha.
Ndipo nkhawa zotere zitha kutsogoleranso kayendetsedwe ka chikhalidwe cha anthu, ntchito ndi chilengedwe - ndipo mwina atsogoleri ochepa a maboma omwe akupita patsogolo - powunika kusintha kwa kuchuluka kwachuma komwe akuvutikira, mfundo yomwe yatengedwa munkhani yotsatira.
Mwachitsanzo, mavuto angongole a 2022 komanso kusinthasintha kwa msika wamsika ndi kusinthasintha kwa ndalama - makamaka zomwe zimayenderana ndi kukwera kwa chiwongola dzanja chogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi US Federal Reserve ndi mabanki apakati ogwirizana, kuthana ndi kukwera kwamitengo - ndizizindikiro zofunika. Sikuti amangodziwitsa kale za kayendetsedwe kazachuma padziko lonse lapansi ("mtengo wamoyo"), komanso amawonetsa kuwulutsa kozama komwe pafupifupi ma akaunti onse m'miyezi ikubwerayi adzayambitsa zowawa zowopsa zamagulu ndikuletsa machiritso achilengedwe omwe amafunikira.
Titha kuyamba ndikukumbukira momwe njira zachitukuko zosalongosoka zidayambitsidwira chifukwa cha kusokonekera kwachuma komanso mfundo zaboma zomwe sizinapangitse phindu pazaka 50 zapitazi, kuyambira pomwe 1973 idayambitsa kusintha kwamphamvu pazachuma padziko lonse lapansi:
- Zizoloŵezi za nthawi yaitali (zaka 50) za "kuchulukirachulukira kwa ndalama" - mwachitsanzo, mphamvu zowonjezereka zomwe zikubwera m'magawo opangira chuma cha dziko lonse lapansi, zosungiramo katundu, chuma chachuma ndi misika ya anthu ogwira ntchito - zomwe sizinathetsedwe bwino, koma m'malo mwake zasamutsidwa, monga kudzera pakukula kwakutali kwa East Asia;
- Kusasunthika komwe kudachitika pazachuma chaku Western, kupatula mafakitole owonjezera omwe nthawi zina anali amphamvu - kuyambira 2005-014 ndi 2020-22 - chifukwa kukwera kwamitengo kwa "commodity super-cycle" kudakopa osunga ndalama ndikulipira ndalama zogulira;
- kutsekedwa kwa mafakitale ambiri olimbikira ntchito omwe kale ankadzitamandira kuti ndi mafakitale akuluakulu, ndi kufalikira kwa ogwira ntchito ndi makina;
- mphamvu zamagulu okwera osati ndalama zapakhomo ndi zapadziko lonse lapansi, komanso m'maiko ambiri azachuma, likulu lazogulitsa kunja ndi malonda; ndi
- kutsogola kwa malingaliro a "Washington Consensus", kulimbikitsa kuchotsedwa kwa neoliberal, kusungitsa anthu komanso kupereka phindu osati katundu ndi ntchito zokha komanso zomangamanga (ndicho chifukwa chake kusungitsa ndalama mokhazikika m'magawo amawu osawoneka ngati opindulitsa mokwanira).
Kutsatira gawo loyamba la zovuta zochulukirachulukira padziko lonse lapansi m'ma 1970, makamaka kutenga mawonekedwe a "stagflation" (kuyima kophatikizana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo), ma 1980s anali a Dziko Lachitatu zaka khumi zotayika chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa ngongole. Kuyambira chakumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1980, kuphulika kwachuma kwanthawi ndi nthawi - komanso kuphulika pang'ono - kudawonekera, zomwe zidapangitsa US Federal Reserve kukhazikitsa lamulo lochotsa mabungwe omwe amawoneka kuti "ndiokulu kwambiri kuti alephere." Pamene kusokonekera kwachuma kunkapitilira pakati pazaka zakumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1990 misika yomwe ikubwera, kulephera kwa Long Term Capital Management, kuwonongeka kwa dot.com, momwemonso kusagwirizana kudakula.
Nzeru zamabanki apakati ku Western Central zidayamba kuphatikiza "Quantitative Easing" - kuyendetsa makina osindikizira ndalama mwachangu kwambiri - pamwamba pa chiwongola dzanja komanso chiwongola dzanja chotsika kwambiri kuyambira kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2008, pomwe mabanki azachuma, inshuwaransi komanso kugwa kwachuma kwachulukira. U.S. padziko lonse lapansi. Ntchitoyi idabwerezedwa kuyambira pa Marichi 2020 mpaka Novembara 2021, ndipo chifukwa chachuma chachuma pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri, umphawi ndi kusalingana zidakula motsatira kuvutika kwa Covid-19, pomwe anthu osachepera 15 miliyoni adamwalira (pomwe aku China miliyoni akuyembekezeka kufa koyambirira kwa 2023. monga kutsekeka kolimba kunachepetsedwa).
Izi zonse zinali zokhutiritsa kwa iwo omwe ali pamwamba kwambiri pa piramidi ya chuma, mpaka 2022. M'mbuyomu, kuyambira March 2020 mpaka November 2021, chuma cha anthu khumi olemera kwambiri padziko lapansi chinakwera kuchokera ku $ 700 biliyoni kufika $ 1.5 trilioni.
Panthawi imeneyo, mndandanda wa olemerawo udatsogozedwa ndi wazamalonda waukadaulo wobadwa ku Pretoria, yemwe adakulira ku Johannesburg, Elon Musk, omwe makampani ake akulu anali Tesla ndi SpaceX. Pofika chakumapeto kwa 2021, chuma chake chidafika pafupifupi $300 biliyoni, ataphulika ndi 1000 peresenti pa Covid-19. Woyambitsa malonda a Amazon a Jeff Bezos adatenga ndalama zoposa $ 200 biliyoni, ndi 4th-Maudindo achisanu ndi chitatu anali akatswiri aukadaulo ndi Big Data tycoons Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Mark Zuckerberg ndi Steve Ballmer, onse pakati pa $8-104 biliyoni.
The plutocrats' roller-coaster
Koma zinthu zidasintha kwambiri mu 2022, pomwe ambiri mwa olemera kwambiri padziko lapansi adagwa kumapeto kwa chaka:
Anthu khumi ndi awiri olemera kwambiri padziko lapansi, Disembala 2022, malinga ndi Forbes
udindo | dzina | Mabiliyoni | gwero | Country |
1 | Bernard Arnault | $179.1 | LVMH | France |
2 | Eloni Musk | $146.5 | Tesla, SpaceX | United States |
3 | Gautam Adani | $127.7 | zomangamanga | India |
4 | Warren Buffett | $107.6 | Berkshire Hathaway | United States |
5 | Jeff Bezos | $107.3 | Amazon | United States |
6 | Bill Gates | $103.3 | Microsoft | United States |
7 | Larry Ellison | $102.4 | Oracle | United States |
8 | Mukesh Ambani | $89.6 | Kusokonezeka | India |
9 | Carlos Slim Helu | $81.4 | Telecom | Mexico |
10 | Steve Ballmer | $78.5 | Microsoft | United States |
11 | Larry Page | $77.3 | United States | |
12 | Michael Bloomberg | $76.8 | Bloomberg LP | United States |
Source: https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/
Chifukwa cha zinthu zomwe sizingathe kuwongolera ngakhale ma plutocrats awa, mu 2022 adasowa chuma chomwe sichinachitikepo, pomwe anthu 500 apamwamba komanso mabanja adatsika $ 1.4 thililiyoni. Musk adatsika mpaka $ 146 biliyoni atatchova njuga $ 44 biliyoni pogula zomwe amakonda pazama TV, Twitter. Mtengo wa magawo a Tesla udagwa ndi 65 peresenti mu 2022 chifukwa chakusakhulupiriranso kwa osunga ndalama pakuwongolera nthawi yake, kukhwima komanso kulingalira bwino, koyambirira kwa 2023 sikunathetse kutayika. Chuma cha Bezos chinatsikanso, mpaka $107 biliyoni, makamaka chifukwa cha Amazon kutaya theka la mtengo wake (komanso zotsatira za chisudzulo chofooketsa chuma).
Izi zidasiya nduna ya ku France yolemera kwambiri Bernard Arnault kukhala munthu wolemera kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, koma pafupifupi mabiliyoni ena onse anali ochokera ku U.S., kupatula Amwenye awiri - Gautam Adani ndi Mukesh Ambani - komanso wotsatsa malonda waku Mexico Carlos Slim. Zonse Forbes ' Olemera a 2022 adalemba kutsika kwapadera komwe kuli pakati pa mabiliyoni 2,668: "Kutsika kwakukulu kwachitika ku Russia, komwe kuli mabiliyoni ochepera 34 kuposa chaka chatha" ( oligarchs omwe adakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi zilango zachuma akuphatikizapo Vladimir Potanin, Leonid Mikhelson, Vladimir Lisin, Alisher Usmanov. , Alexey Mordashov, Roman Abramovich, Gennady Timchenko, Suleiman Kerimov, Victor Rashnikov, Alexei Mordashov ndi ena).
Pakadali pano ku China, malamulo okhwima a Beijing a Big Tech adachepetsa kuchuluka kwa mabiliyoni aku China kuchokera ku 694 mpaka 607 (wachiwiri ku US ndi 735), kuphatikiza omwe aku Hong Kong ndi Macau. Awiri otchuka kwambiri, "Pony" Ma Huateng wa Tencent ndi Jack Ma wa Alibaba, adagwera pansi pa $ 40 biliyoni mu chuma chilichonse.
William Robinson akulemba m'buku lake latsopano, Kodi Global Capitalism Itha Kupirira?, kuti gulu ili likuyimira utsogoleri wa Transnational Capitalist Class yopangidwa kuchokera ku "kuphatikiza magulu otsogola pakati pa magulu amtundu wa capitalist." Koma kukhazikika - komanso kuthekera kochita zinthu mogwirizana - kwa "eni ndi oyang'anira mabungwe akuluakulu amayiko ndi mabungwe azachuma omwe tsopano akuyendetsa chuma padziko lonse lapansi" adakayikira mu 2022.
Transnational capitalists 'strategic void
Ngakhale mwachiphamaso zikuwoneka kuti pali gulu loterolo, lokhala ndi mayina ndi malingaliro omwe amawonetsedwa poyera kapena kumanzere (kudzera muzokonda za World Economic Forum, Bilderberg Group ndi maukonde ena osankhika), ndikusintha mawu kukhala zochita kuti mgwirizano wa a kalasi ikhoza kudziwika. Ndipo gulu lamphamvu la transnational capitalism likufunsidwa, chifukwa mabungwe ake otsogola alephera posachedwa, makamaka m'mabwalo apakati pamayiko osiyanasiyana: makamaka Bretton Woods Institutions ndi World Trade Organisation, kapenanso malo othandiza kwambiri Big Oil amasangalala ndi kuwongolera nyengo. mafuta opangira mafuta - pangano la 1994 Energy Charter Treaty, lomwe limapereka njira yothanirana ndi zisankho za Investor-State Dispute Resolution mokomera ndalama komanso kupewa mfundo zochepetsera utsi.
Kunena zowona, kulephereka kwa mayiko ambiri m'zaka makumi angapo zapitazi kukuwonetsa chidani chamayiko ambiri pamitundu yamayankho apadziko lonse lapansi omwe akufunika kuthana ndi zovuta zapadziko lonse lapansi. Monga Robinson akunenera, osankhikawa ndi andale omwe adalembedwa ganyu akadali "alibe njira zandale zogwirira ntchito kuti athetse vutoli, kukhazika bloc yatsopano yapadziko lonse lapansi, ndikumanganso mbiri ya capitalist, chifukwa chakusagwirizana pakati pa chuma chadziko lonse lapansi ndi dongosolo lokhazikitsidwa ndi boma. ulamuliro wandale.”
Popanda njira yogwirizana yopezera ndalama, mamenejala azachuma otsogola akuwoneka kuti ayamba kuchita zinthu mopanda nzeru, chifukwa "Monga mwayi wachuma wongopeka m'gawo lina, Transnational Capitalist Class idangotembenukira kugawo lina kuti itsitse zotsala," adatero Robinson. Zowonadi mu 2022, kuchuluka kwachuma kwa Big Data kutha kutha (makanthawi, monga momwe kuphulika kwa Dot.Com kunaphulika mu 2000-01), makamaka pakati pa omwe adayambitsa magawo a FANG a 2010s (Facebook, Apple, Netflix ndi Google) ndi makampani awiri akuluakulu aku China (Tencent ndi Alibaba).
Komabe, kuyamikira kwakukulu kwa magawo mu 2022 kudachitika m'magawo ena. Msika waukulu kwambiri wazachuma wamakampani padziko lonse lapansi - New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) - adawona kuchulukirachulukira kwa "likulu lopeka" (zomwe Karl Marx adazitcha ziwonetsero zamapepala, monga magawo amsika) m'magawo atatu: Big Oil, the Military. -Industrial Complex ndi Big Pharma. Zabwino izi zidachitika chifukwa chazovuta zamphamvu, kuwukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine komanso kupereka katemera wa 13 biliyoni wa Covid-19 mu 2021-22, motsatana.
Makampani aku US Exxon ndi Chevron adatsogolera NYSE mchaka cha 2022, pakukwera kwamitengo ya 80 ndi 53 peresenti motsatana, pomwe anayi otsatirawa akulu kwambiri - Equinor yaku Norway, Shell ya London ndi BP ndi Paris-based Total - onse adawona kuwonjezeka kwamitengo kuchokera ku 28 mpaka 40 peresenti mu 2022. Kuchokera ku Big Pharma, opambana awiriwo anali a Merck ndi Eli Lilly pa 45 ndi 32 peresenti, motsatana, kutsatira kukwera kwakukulu kwamitengo ya 2020-21 kamodzi kokha katemera wa Covid ndi phindu lamankhwala lidalimbikitsidwa ndi "Opaleshoni yomwe boma la Trump silinachitepo. Warp Speed" thandizo.
Mchitidwe wongopeka wa capital capital
Koma izi zinali zosiyana, chifukwa US Federal Reserve idakweza chiwongola dzanja kuyambira kumapeto kwa 2021, kukula kwachuma kudachepa ndipo mavuto angongole adayamba. Ndi katundu wopeza chiwongola dzanja tsopano kubetcha kwabwinoko, Index ya Wiltshire ya masheya onse aku US adatsika ndi 21 peresenti mu 2022, ndipo pakati pamakampani 500 apamwamba (S&P500) panali opindula 132 okha komanso ena otayika.
Kupatula Tesla, kampani yayikulu yotsatira yomwe idakumana ndi ngozi yowopsa ya NYSE inali Zuckerberg's Meta (Facebook), kutsika ndi 64 peresenti, kutsatiridwa ndi makampani ena atatu akuluakulu a IT ku West Coast: Advanced Micro Devices (55 peresenti), Bezos 'Amazon (50 peresenti). ndi Nvidia Semiconductors (komanso 50 peresenti). Makhalidwe a omwe amapereka zazikulu kwambiri - Netflix ndi Disney - adagwa ndi 51 ndi 44 peresenti, motsatana. Magawo awiri akuluakulu a NYSE, Apple ndi Microsoft, adagwa 27 ndi 29 peresenti motsatira. Magawo awiri akuluakulu amabanki - Bank of America ndi JP Morgan - adatayanso 26 ndi 15 peresenti ya kuwerengera kwawo, motsatana.
Ku Asia, kampani imodzi yofunika kwambiri m'zaka zaposachedwa inali Tencent, yolembedwa ku Hong Kong ndi chiwongola dzanja choyambirira cha 2021 cha US $ 916 biliyoni. Koma pofika Okutobala 2022, pomwe Xi adasankhidwanso pamsonkhano wa Chipani cha Chikomyunizimu (zomwe zidapangitsa kuti osunga ndalama ambiri padziko lonse lapansi atayitse magawo aku China chifukwa chodana ndi mabungwe azigawo zabizinesi a Big Tech), mtengo wamsika wa Tencent udatsika mpaka US $ 251 biliyoni, 74. kugwa kwaperesenti (ngakhale kuti posakhalitsa kunawonjezeka kawiri mu mtengo). Kampani yachiwiri yofunika kwambiri ku Asia, Alibaba (yomwe idatchulidwa ku Hong Kong ndi New York), idakwera kwambiri kumapeto kwa 2020 pa $ 868 biliyoni koma atafufuzidwa chifukwa chophwanya mpikisano ndi malamulo ogula, idatsika ndi 81 peresenti mpaka $ 168 biliyoni zaka ziwiri. kenako.
Zambiri chifukwa cha chikhulupiriro chakhungu chomwe osunga ndalama ambiri amakhala nacho, kotero kuti magawo a Blue Chip atha kuthana ndi mkuntho wakutsika mtengo. Makampani 100 apamwamba pamisika yapadziko lonse adataya $7.2 thililiyoni pamagawo mu 2022. Zotayika zidali zazikulu kwambiri m'malo amphamvu kwambiri a capitalism yapadziko lonse, U.S., wokhala ndi makampani 16 mwa 20 apamwamba (mabungwe omwe si a U.S. anali apachiwiri. wakale wa Saudi mafuta parastatal Aramco, 11th-Tencent wamkulu, 14th-opanga TSMC wopanga semiconductor waku Taiwan; ndi Arnault wa 15th-pa udindo wa Louis Vitton, kapena LVMH).
Kuchulukirachulukira kwapamalo-kusiyana
Kutsikaku kunali kodziwikiratu, chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwa msika wamasheya komwe kumalimbikitsidwa ndi ndondomeko zandalama zotayirira, koma mosagwirizana ndi malo. Chakumapeto kwa chaka cha 2020, pafupi ndi nthawi yochuluka ya ongoyerekeza, "Buffett Indicator" - mwachitsanzo, ndalama zamsika (zofunika zonse zamakampani omwe adatchulidwa) zogawidwa ndi Gross Domestic Product - zimathandizira kuwunika komwe mawonekedwe amisika yamayiko amapereka zidziwitso za komwe ndalama zandalama zimayendera kapena m'malo mwake adakakamira, makamaka chifukwa chowongolera kusinthana. Pali anomalies angapo. M'malo oyamba mpaka achitatu mu Buffett Indicator, komanso omwe akukwera kwambiri kumapeto kwa 2010s, anali Hong Kong (ndi 1777 Buffett Indicator mu December 2020), Iran (508) ndi Saudi Arabia (345).
Onse atatu anali ndi mawonekedwe apadera. Choyamba, index ya Hong Kong Hang Seng idakhala ndi Tencent ndi Alibaba - makampani awiri akulu aku Asia mpaka 2022 - motero adakwera kwambiri koyambirira kwa 2018, isanakwane kuzungulira koyamba kwa Beijing pa Big Data. Mlozerawu udagwa 57 peresenti mpaka kutsika kwake kwaposachedwa mu Okutobala 2022. Chachiwiri, Saudi Tadawul Stock Exchange idakwera makamaka chifukwa cha Kupereka Kwaufulu kwa Aramco kumapeto kwa 2019, kukwera mpaka pachimake mu Epulo 2022, pambuyo pake msika udatsika ndi 26 peresenti. mpaka kumapeto kwa 2022. Chachitatu, Tehran Stock Market idakula kwambiri mu Marichi-Ogasiti 2020 chifukwa chazifukwa zitatu: kukhazikitsidwa pang'ono kwa mabizinesi aboma 49, kugwiritsa ntchito kwa boma ndalama zakunja za thumba lake lachuma kuti likhazikitse msika wamba, ndi kukwera kwa mitengo kwamphamvu komwe kunalowetsa ndalama za mabanja ambiri m'magawo (kuti asataye ndalama m'mabanki chifukwa cha kuchepa kwamitengo). Pofika mu Ogasiti 2020, kuwira kwa Tehran kudafika pachimake, ndipo m'miyezi isanu ndi inayi yotsatira idagwa pafupifupi 50 peresenti asanachira pang'ono.
Msika wachinayi mpaka chisanu ndi chimodzi wokwera mtengo kwambiri kumapeto kwa 2020, monga momwe Buffett Indicator imagwiritsa ntchito misika yayikulu, inali South Africa (312), Switzerland (277) ndi United States (193). Pambuyo pakuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa 2021 kenako kuwonongeka kwa 2022, ziwerengerozi sizinasinthe. Dziko la South Africa linali losakhazikika kwambiri popeza kuti ndalama zambiri zakumaloko zidadalira Tencent, popeza pafupifupi umwini wagawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu mu kampani yaku China idachitika chifukwa cha kubetcha kwamwayi kwa osunga ndalama mu 2001 kwa $35 miliyoni m'masomphenya a Pony Ma. Izi zidapangitsa kuti kampani yake - kampani yapanthawi ya tsankho ya Naspers - kukwera mtengo, kuphatikiza pafupifupi 30% ya Johannesburg Stock Exchange pachimake chisanafike 2018.
M'gawo lotsatira pakati pa misika yayikulu yayikulu idakhazikitsidwa bwino, misika yosasinthika: Singapore, Sweden, Netherlands, Canada, France, Japan, Australia ndi South Korea.
Poyezera kukula kwake kwa misika (osati kuchuluka kwa chizindikiritso cha Buffett), United States idafikira pafupifupi $40 thililiyoni pofika kumapeto kwa 2022, kutsatiridwa ndi China pa $10 thililiyoni, Japan ndi Hong Kong pafupifupi $5 thililiyoni, kenako misika yaying'ono kwambiri. UK, France, Canada, India ndi Switzerland.
Misika yamasheya sinalipo. Ena zongopeka chuma chuma ananyamuka ndipo anagwa kwambiri, monga mtengo Bitcoin, kutsika pafupifupi $1 miliyoni aliyense mu November 2021 kuti $293,000 ndi oyambirira 2023, monga okwana cryptocurrency kuwerengera anagwa $3 thililiyoni kuti $850 biliyoni pa nthawi yomweyo (Bitcoin amaimira pafupifupi 40 peresenti ya msika, ndikutsatiridwa ndi Ethereum pa 18 peresenti). Pamene chilakolakocho chinatha, imodzi mwamisika yayikulu - FTX, yokhazikitsidwa ndi Sam Bankman-Wofinya - idavumbulutsidwa kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2022, panthawi yachiwonetsero chochititsa manyazi chambiri, monga dongosolo lachinyengo la Ponzi. (Chochititsanso chidwi ndichakuti adathandizira ambiri omwe anali ndi maofesi a Neoliberal Democratic Party ndi $40 miliyoni mchaka cha 2022 - makamaka m'ma primaries motsutsana ndi omwe akupita patsogolo - kuti alandire chithandizo chofulumira komanso chowongolera pazoyeserera zake.)
Kuchuluka kwazinthu zongopeka zomwe zikukhudzana ndi kusintha kwamitengo yamitengo iyi - kuyambira kukwera kenako kuyambira koyambirira kwa 2022 kutsika - zitha kutsatiridwa ndi mphamvu zazikulu zachuma za mamanejala apakati pazachuma. Chifukwa cha Quantitative Easing, kubweza ngongole kubanki komanso chiwongola dzanja chochepa mu 2009-13 ndi 2020-21, ndalama zopeka zomwe zidapezedwa pamtengo, kupitilira kuwerengera kwenikweni kwamitengo yamtengo wapatali.
Koma chibadwa cha ng'ombe chimapambana, ndipo kuwongolera kuchuluka kwa ndalama m'misika yamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi kumakhalabe kokhazikika kwambiri m'manja mwa nyumba zingapo zotsogola zotsogola: BlackRock yokhala ndi $ 9.6 thililiyoni pakuwongolera chuma kumapeto kwa 2022; Gulu la Vanguard, $ 8.1 trilioni; Kukhulupirika, $4.2 thililiyoni; Union Bank of Switzerland, $4.4 trilioni; State Street, $4.0 trilioni; Morgan Stanley, $ 3.2 trilioni; JP Morgan Chase, $ 2.9 trilioni; Ngongole Agricole, $2.9 thililiyoni; Allianz, $2.8 thililiyoni; Capital Group, $ 2.7 trilioni; Goldman Sachs, $2.4 thililiyoni ndi zina zotero. Omwe adapindula kwambiri ndi capitalizations yamisika yopanda nzeru anali makamaka awa ndi mabungwe ena ogulitsa.
Kufa kofunidwa kwa dola
Kuyambira kumapeto kwa 2021, mabanki apakati akuyeneranso kuimbidwa mlandu chifukwa chosokoneza chuma chenicheni ndi mfundo zandalama zolimba kuposa zoyenera. Cholinga cha wapampando wa Fed Jerome Powell chinali kuyimitsa kukwera kwa inflation, ngakhale zinali zoonekeratu kudzera mu 2022 kuti gwero lalikulu lakukwera kwamitengo sikunali kufunikira kwa ogula mopitilira muyeso komanso kukwera kwa malipiro a antchito. (Progressives m'malo mwake adadzudzula mphamvu zamitengo ya oligopolies.)
Kukwera kwa inflation kumayimira kutsika kwachindunji kwa mtengo wandalama, zomwe zimapweteketsa anthu osauka omwe ndalama zawo sizisintha kusintha kwa inflation. Koma ndi kukwera kwa mitengo, momwemonso udindo wa ngongole - kubwezeredwa kwa onse akuluakulu ndi chiwongoladzanja - zimagwera m'mawu enieni (osachepera ngongole zomwe sizinagulitsidwe pamtengo wosiyana, mwachitsanzo, kukwera ndi chiwongoladzanja cha msika).
Koma ngakhale kukwera kwa mitengo kunali kothandiza (monga njira yochepetsera mtengo) kwa obwereka omwe ali ndi ngongole zokhazikika, vuto lalikulu lanthawi yomwe ikubwerayo linali ngongole yapadziko lonse lapansi. Zowonadi, ngati Quantitative Easing sichigwiritsidwanso ntchito panthawi yamavuto am'tsogolo kuti athetse vuto lazachuma kachiwiri, ngongole yokhazikika ya domino ikhoza kuchitika.
Mu Okutobala 2022, IMF ya Okutobala 2022 Maonedwe a Economic Padziko Lonse adavomereza kuti kuphulika kwa chiyembekezo cha pambuyo pa Covid kudachitika:
“Ntchito zazachuma padziko lonse zikuyenda pang'onopang'ono komanso mokulira kuposa momwe timayembekezera, ndipo kukwera kwamitengo kwakwera kuposa momwe tawonera m'zaka makumi angapo. Mavuto azachuma, kukhwimitsa zinthu zachuma m'magawo ambiri, kuwukira kwa Russia ku Ukraine, komanso mliri wa Covid-19 womwe ukukulirakulira, zonse zikulemetsa kwambiri. Kukula kwapadziko lonse lapansi kukuyembekezeka kutsika kuchoka pa 6.0 peresenti mu 2021 kufika pa 3.2 peresenti mu 2022 ndi 2.7 peresenti mu 2023.
Kumbali ina, utsogoleri wadziko lonse wa capitalist unali, pofika nthawi yamavuto azachuma padziko lonse lapansi mu 2008-09, zidakhala zabwino pakuyimitsa ndi njira zina zochotsera mavuto. Chifukwa chake kubweza ngongole ya dollar ndi wobwereketsa wamkulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi, U.S. Treasury, anali kulipidwabe ndi ngongole zapadziko lonse lapansi. Chifukwa chosavuta cha kuyenda kotereku kusuntha ngakhale kuzinthu zobweza zotsika ngati U.S. Treasury Bills, ndi gawo lomwe ndalama za dollar yaku US zakhala nazo monga malo otetezeka, kuyambira 1944. adatenga udindo chifukwa cha inflation ya U.S.
Monga momwe katswiri wazachuma wochokera ku Poland Richard Westra ananena za nthawi imeneyo, ndi "dollar monga ndalama yapadziko lonse lapansi, mavuto okwera mitengo a ku US adatumizidwa padziko lonse lapansi. Ochita nawo mpikisano pazachuma, makamaka, adayamba kukopana ndi njira zosinthira dola pamalo ake a WWII. " Ngakhale kuti Treasury ndi Federal Reserve imatha kugwiritsa ntchito molakwika mphamvu zapadziko lonse lapansi pazachuma, komabe dola idakhazikika, ngakhale, imakumbutsa Westra,
"Madola adasefukira m'misika yapadziko lonse lapansi pomwe chiwongola dzanja chinali chotsika mtengo wa inflation, ndikupanga paradiso wobwereketsa wapadziko lonse lapansi, Wapampando wa Federal Reserve wamasikuwo, a Paul Volcker, adakweza chiwongola dzanja cha US mosagwirizana. Mitengo yodziwika bwino idzakwera pafupifupi 21 peresenti. "
Momwemonso, mkati mwa kusakhazikika komwe kulipo, dola idakwera motsutsana ndi ndalama zina zambiri mu 2022, monganso mu 2020 ndi 2008. Otsatira achangu, zikuwonekerabe. Koma poganizira kusiyana kwakukulu kwa bloc ndi kusakhazikika kwachuma, komanso zitsanzo za atsogoleri a BRICS omwe akulonjeza zambiri zakusintha kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi koma osapereka kanthu (kang'ono kakang'ono, komwe kamene kamakhala ndi katangale kamene kamakhala ndi katangale wa World Bank monga New Development Bank), yomwe ili ndi zonse. kuwukira mphamvu ya dollar kumawoneka ngati kosatheka. Ndikuyembekeza njira ina yopitira ku IMF ("Contingent Reserve Arrangement" ya $ 100 biliyoni), kapena mabungwe okomera ngongole ku New York, kapena kudalira chuma cha BRICS pa madola kuti achite malonda apadziko lonse lapansi, sizinachitike.
Komabe, pali kuwonjezeka koyembekezeredwa kwa bloc, ndondomeko ya "BRICS +", mwinamwake kumayambiriro kwa August pamene msonkhano wa utsogoleri udzachitikira ku South Africa. Mwa khumi ndi awiri omwe angakhale mamembala atsopano ndi mayiko angapo opondereza a petro - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Nigeria ndi Algeria, omwe adalandira thandizo ku Beijing ndi Moscow mu 2022 - zomwe zitha kusintha mawerengedwe.
Zinali, pambuyo pa zonse, dongosolo la "petrodollar" la 1973 (mafuta amtengo wa madola ndipo makamaka-mapindu aku Arabu a mphepo yamkuntho adasinthidwanso kudzera ku mabanki a New York) omwe adapatsa ndalama za US kulimba mtima Richard Nixon atathetsa mgwirizano wa Bretton Woods wa 1944 mu 1971. Pamtengo wa $80 biliyoni wa zomwe zinali ngongole zaku US - mwachitsanzo, kulipira golide wosungidwa ku Fort Knox pa $ 35 iliyonse yoperekedwa ndi omwe ali ndi dollar yapadziko lonse lapansi - kuphatikiza kutsika kwa inflation ("stagflation," mwa zina zikuwonetsa mikhalidwe yolimba ya msika wogwira ntchito ndi mabungwe olimba mtima. pa nthawiyo), adayika ndalama za Washington kukayikira. Ulamuliro wa chiwongola dzanja chapamwamba cha Volcker chinali chisankho chapakati chomwe chinasintha chuma cha US (potengera kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi), kubwezeretsa hegemony ya dollar kwa nthawi yosachepera 1980-2020.
Masiku ano, zofooka zambiri mu US-centric management management zikuwonekera mochulukira, zomwe ndi, kachiwiri, stagflation. Komabe mosasamala kanthu za zokambirana zaposachedwa za njira yatsopano yandalama ndi yolipira, gawo la dola mu capitalism yapadziko lonse lapansi lidakali lozama. Kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2023, pafupifupi 60 peresenti ya ndalama zosungiramo ndalama zakunja zomwe zimasungidwa ndi mabanki apakati zinali madola (kutsika kuchokera pa 65 peresenti kuyambira 2000-20). Gawo la dollar pazamalonda akunja linali 90 peresenti, ngongole zodutsa malire 52 peresenti, ngongole zapadziko lonse lapansi 50 peresenti, zamalonda zolipira 50 peresenti ndi zolipira za SWIFT 42 peresenti (ngakhale Russia isanathamangitsidwe mu Marichi 2022). Chuma cha US lero chitha kungotenga 22 peresenti ya GDP yapadziko lonse ndi 12 peresenti yamalonda apadziko lonse lapansi, kotero kugwiritsa ntchito madola ndi ma capitalist padziko lonse lapansi kumapangitsa kuti Fed ikhale yolimba kwambiri.
Komanso, zikafika ku gulu la ndalama za ndalama zomwe amazikonda, zikuwonekabe kuti wobwereketsa wachiwiri wamkulu kwambiri ku US Treasury bills, China (ndi $ 900 biliyoni kumapeto kwa 2022, kumbuyo pang'ono $ 1.078 thililiyoni ya Japan), alibe chidwi chogwedeza izi. ngalawa pakadali pano, ngakhale Beijing ikugulitsa pang'onopang'ono madola. Madera ena akuluakulu omwe ali ndi ndalama zoposa $ 100 biliyoni ku US Treasury anali ogwirizana ndi US kapena odzikonda okha omwe sakufuna kuchita nawo malonda ambiri pazifukwa zandale, kuchotsa mphamvu za dollar: United Kingdom ($ 638 biliyoni), Belgium (327 biliyoni), Cayman Islands ($297 biliyoni), Luxembourg ($296 biliyoni) ndi Switzerland ($263 biliyoni). Ndi pakati pa $100 ndi $250 biliyoni mu T-bill holdings, ndi ena theka la khumi ndi awiri omwe nthawi zambiri akumadzulo kwazachuma: Ireland, Brazil, France, Taiwan, Canada, India, Hong Kong, Singapore ndi Saudi Arabia.
Powell akuwoneka kuti akutsatira zolemba zakale zakubwezeretsa kwa dola, ngakhale zili zowawa bwanji. Kupatula apo, mu 1979 Volcker Shock idadzetsa kugwa kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi komanso mavuto omwe anali asanakhalepo ndi ngongole zamabanja, makampani ndi mayiko ambiri opeza ndalama zapakati komanso osauka. Kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 2020, ndi Fed kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zake kukweza chiwongoladzanja chapadziko lonse lapansi, mwayi ulipobe kuti kubwereranso kudziko lonse lapansi kungayambitse vuto lina lomwe lingakhale vuto la ngongole.
Kukula kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi komwe kumayembekezeredwa mu 2023 ndi kupitirira apo kunali kotsika - komanso kugawidwa mosagwirizana - kuposa momwe amafunikira kuti apititse patsogolo ngongole zomwe mayiko ambiri azachuma amakhala nazo. Ngakhale ku China, misika ya katundu ndi omanga nyumba zazikulu zidayamba kugwa ndi 2022. Nouriel Roubini wa yunivesite ya New York, mmodzi mwa akatswiri a zachuma ochepa kwambiri omwe anganenere za kuwonongeka kwa 2008-09, adadandaula za milingo yomwe sinayambe yachitikapo. zowonekera kubwereketsa, komanso Kumadzulo
"Ngongole zodziwika bwino monga ngongole zopanda ndalama kuchokera kumapulani a penshoni ndi njira zothandizira zaumoyo - zonsezi zidzapitirira kukula pamene magulu akukalamba. Kungoyang'ana ngongole zoonekeratu, ziwerengerozo ndi zodabwitsa. Padziko lonse, ngongole zonse zachinsinsi komanso zamagulu a boma monga gawo la GDP zidakwera kuchoka pa 200 peresenti mu 1999 kufika pa 350 peresenti mu 2021. Chiŵerengerochi tsopano ndi 420 peresenti m'mayiko onse otukuka, ndi 330 peresenti ku China. Ku United States, ndi 420 peresenti, yomwe ili yokwera kwambiri kuposa panthaŵi ya Kusoŵa Kwachuma Kwakukulu ndi pambuyo pa Nkhondo Yadziko II.”
"Kuwopsa" kumeneku (kumodzi mwa khumi), kwa Roubini, kunali maziko a:
"Kutera movutikira - kutsika kwachuma kwanthawi yayitali - pamwamba pavuto lalikulu lazachuma. Pomwe kuphulika kwa katundu kukuchulukirachulukira, chiwongola dzanja chothandizira ngongole chikuchulukirachulukira, komanso ndalama zomwe zimasinthidwa ndi inflation zimagwera m'mabanja, mabungwe, ndi maboma, mavuto azachuma komanso kusokonekera kwachuma kumayenderana. Kunena zoona, mayiko amene ali ndi chuma chambiri amene amabwereka ndalama zawozo angagwiritse ntchito kukwera kwa mitengo kosayembekezereka kuti achepetse mtengo weniweni wa ngongole yokhazikika ya nthawi yaitali. Ndi maboma omwe sakufuna kukweza misonkho kapena kuchepetsa ndalama zomwe akugwiritsa ntchito kuti achepetse kuchepa kwa ndalama zomwe mabanki apakati apeza, kuwonekanso ngati njira yochepetsera kukana.
Pomaliza Roubini, "Amayi azovuta zonse zangongole zitha kuimitsidwa, osapewedwa."
Kwa mbiri yake, World Economic Forum ikudziwa zosemphana izi, komanso zatsopano zake Global Risk Report imatchula zinthu zingapo zodetsa nkhawa, kuphatikiza zambiri zomwe zikuwonetsa zosemphana ndi zachuma izi:
- Kuphulika kwa zinthu zamtengo wapatali: Mitengo ya nyumba, ndalama zosungiramo ndalama, magawo ndi zinthu zina zimasokonekera kwambiri ku chuma chenicheni, zomwe zimapangitsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa kufunikira ndi mitengo. Zimaphatikizapo, koma sizimangokhala: ma cryptocurrencies, mitengo yamagetsi, mitengo yanyumba, ndi misika yamasheya.
- Kugwa kwamakampani ofunikira mwadongosolo kapena njira zogulitsira: Kugwa kwamakampani ofunikira padziko lonse lapansi kapena njira zoperekera zinthu zomwe zimakhudza chuma chapadziko lonse lapansi, misika yazachuma kapena gulu zomwe zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kugwedezeka kwapang'onopang'ono pakuperekedwa ndi kufunikira kwa katundu ndi ntchito zofunika mwadongosolo. dziko lonse lapansi. Zimaphatikizapo, koma sizimangokhala: mphamvu, chakudya ndi katundu wogula wothamanga.
- Mavuto angongole: Ndalama zamakampani kapena zaboma zimavutikira kubweza ngongole, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti anthu ambiri azisowa ndalama kapena kulephera kubweza ngongole, mavuto azachuma kapena kulephera kubweza ngongoleyo komanso mavuto azachuma.
- Kulephera kukhazikika pamayendedwe amitengo: Kulephera kuwongolera kuchuluka kwamitengo yazinthu ndi ntchito, kuphatikiza katundu. Kuphatikizirapo kukwera kosasinthika (kutsika kwa mitengo) kapena kutsika (kutsika) kwamitengo.
- Kuchulukirachulukira kwa ntchito zachuma zosaloledwa: Kuchulukirachulukira kwa ntchito zachuma zosaloledwa padziko lonse lapansi komanso ziwawa zomwe zingasokoneze kupita patsogolo kwachuma ndi kukula chifukwa cha umbanda wolinganizidwa kapena zochita zosavomerezeka zamabizinesi. Kuphatikizira, koma sikumangokhala: kuyenda kosaloledwa kwachuma (monga kuzemba msonkho); ndi malonda oletsedwa ndi malonda (monga chinyengo, kuzembetsa anthu, malonda a nyama zakuthengo).
- Kutsika kwachuma kwanthawi yayitali: Kukula pang'onopang'ono kwapadziko lonse lapansi komwe kumatenga zaka zambiri ndikupangitsa kuti pakhale kuyimirira; kapena kutsika kwapadziko lonse (kutsika kwachuma kapena kukhumudwa).
Koma vuto ndi lakuti awa ndi okhawo zachuma mavuto patebulo. Ziwopsezo zokhazikika kwambiri zachilengedwe, zachikhalidwe, zapadziko lapansi komanso zathanzi, nazonso. Ndipo monga momwe nkhani yotsatira idzasonyezera, kulephera kwamakono kwa multilateralism - ngakhale kuphatikiza kwa imperialist / subimperialist monga G20 - kuthana ndi polycrisis sikunawoneke ngati kufooketsa kwambiri, kwa 80 kapena zaka zapitazo.
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