Standard&Poors (S&P) idapatsa South Africa kuyembekezera kwa maola ochepa Lachisanu lapitalo, fumbi lamphepo yamkuntho sabata yatha litakhazikika. Bungweli lidatsitsa chikole cha boma chomwe chimagwiritsa ntchito ndalama za m’dziko muno (rand) ngakhale kuti silinachite mantha ndi nkhani yazachuma pazachuma za mayiko. Inali nthawi yoyang'ana akuluakulu abizinesi ndi zipani zandale, koma pakuwuma mtima sakuyang'ana patali mokwanira.
Panthawi yomwe zinthu zatsala pang'ono kugwa pansi komanso kukwera kwa ulova, owonera m'dziko muno komanso ochokera kumayiko ena akulakwitsa kuganiza kuti Purezidenti Jacob Zuma ndi wotsala pang'ono kuwononga ndalama. Chipani cholamula cha African National Congress (ANC) chinatembenukira ku njira zozengereza zoyesedwa bwino ndi njira zobisa kuti zitetezenso Zuma Lolemba lapitali. Msonkhano wapitawo sabata yatha wa ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) udaganizira lingaliro loti atule pansi udindo, mwina kuti alowe m'malo ndi wachiwiri wake, bilionea (komanso wakale wa bungwe lazamalonda) Cyril Ramaphosa, zisanachitike Disembala 2017 ANC. voti ya utsogoleri. (Mmodzi yemwe akupikisana nawo kwambiri pa pulezidenti wa ANC ndi mkazi wakale wa Zuma, wapampando wotuluka wa African Union Nkosozana Dlamini-Zuma, ndi Treasurer wa ANC Zweli Mkhize yemwe angakhale wopikisana nawo.)
Gawo limodzi mwa magawo atatu a nthumwi za NEC zidagwirizana ndi kuchotsedwa kwake, koma a Zuma adapitilirabe kulamulira. Kukhoza kwa chipanichi 'kudziwongolera' kukuwoneka kuti kwatha, ndi atsogoleri ambiri 'ogwidwa' ndi dongosolo lokonzekera bwino lomwe likukhudzana ndi abale atatu ochokera ku India, a Gupta. Wachiwiri kwa nduna ya zachuma Mcebesi Jonas adapereka umboni wa dongosololi mu Marichi watha, monga momwe a Gupta adamupempha kuti akhale nduna ya zachuma (pamodzi ndi chilimbikitso cha $ 43 miliyoni) ngati angakwaniritse zofuna zawo pamakontrakitala akuluakulu.
Mlembi wamkulu wa ANC Gwede Mantashe analengeza, "Tithana ndi chithunzi chokulirapo. Tikukana kuchitapo kanthu pankhaniyi chifukwa chiwopsezo chake ndi chachikulu kuposa chochitika ichi. ” Mu May, komabe, iye inatha kafukufuku wa a Gupta ‘state capture’, ponena kuti ‘zinali zosapindulitsa’ chifukwa cha umboni wosakwanira. Koma mwezi watha, Mtetezi wa Public Protector, Thuli Madonsela, adatulutsa lipoti lofotokoza mwachidule umboni wa vuto la Gupta, lomwe lidakakamiza mtsogoleri wa bungwe lamagetsi kuti atule pansi udindo monyozeka.
Sabata yatha zinali zochulukirachulukira, zomwe zidachitika mkati mwa ANC kuyesa kuchotsa Zuma. Mosakayikira, zipani zotsutsa zapakati-kumanja (Democratic Alliance) ndi kumanzere (Economic Freedom Fighters) zinalandira mwakachetechete kupitiriza kwa ulamuliro wa Zuma chifukwa chotsatira choipa kwambiri chikanakhala cholowa m'malo mwake ndi Ramaphosa. Ngakhale adachita nawo kuphedwa kwa Marikana, adzakhala wotsutsa kwambiri kunyozedwa m'miyezi ikubwerayi.
Adavoteranso zamanyazi chabe
Koma osunga ndalama mwachiwonekere akuyembekeza kuti Zuma agwa, ndikuti kukwera kwa Ramaphosa kudzathetsa ziwopsezo zandale zomwe amakonda wa ANC, Nduna ya Zachuma Pravin Gordhan. Poganizira kuchuluka kwa mphamvu zomwe mabungwe owerengera ngongole ali nazo, Gordhan akuwoneka kuti sanachitepo kanthu pakusintha kwa nduna komwe kunkayembekezeredwa kuti a Zuma asokonezeke. Mabungwewa amasungabe mphamvuyi chifukwa pomwe Fitch, Moody's ndi S&P adapereka ndemanga zopanda chiyembekezo paulamuliro wa Zuma m'mawu awo aposachedwa, sanachepetse dziko la South Africa kukhala lopanda pake. Chikwapucho chikhalabe pamwamba pa mutu wa South Africa, kuyembekezera kuyesedwa kwa June wotsatira.
Kupumulako kunasiya anthu onse a ku South Africa odziwa zachuma mosamala kukondwerera. Komabe, Lachisanu lapitali mawu Wolemba S&P - woweruza wokhwima kwambiri kuposa a Fitch ndi Moody's - analibe kuganiza bwino komanso kukhudzika mtima, kupatula malingaliro odziwikiratu a neo-liberal kuti achepetse kuchepa kwa bajeti ndikuchepetsa chikoka chochepa cha ogwira ntchito. Kumbali inayi, kulephera kwa S&P kumatha kuloleza anthu aku South Africa kuti atsutsane bwino ndi mphamvu zonse za mabungwe owerengera.
Za izi mabungwe oopsa amene zolakwa zake - mwachitsanzo. pamene vuto la zachuma padziko lonse la 2008 linafika mofulumira, kupatsa AAA ma grade grade grade kwa Lehman Brothers ndi AIG atangotsala pang'ono kugwa, komanso kwa Enron masiku anayi asanagwe mu 2001 - zikhoza kukhala zoopsa kwa osunga ndalama ndi chuma chambiri.
Ndizosadabwitsa kuti msonkhano wa atsogoleri a Goa ku Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) mu Okutobala adavomereza kufufuza "Kukhazikitsa bungwe lodziyimira pawokha la BRICS Rating Agency potengera mfundo zomwe zimakonda msika, kuti alimbikitse kasamalidwe kaulamuliro wapadziko lonse lapansi." Komabe, poganizira momwe "mfundo zokhazikika pazamalonda" sizikuyenda bwino m'dongosolo lazachuma padziko lonse lapansi, komanso kutengera kulamulira kwa akuluakulu aboma pazachuma mu BRICS, njira iyi ikuwoneka ngati yodzigonjetsera ngati kusintha kwa BRICS komwe akuti "ulamuliro". International Monetary Fund mwezi watha. Kenaka, pambali pa South Africa (yomwe inataya 21 peresenti ya mavoti ake), BRICS inayi inawonjezera magawo ovota a IMF powononga Nigeria ndi Venezuela (iliyonse yomwe inataya -41%), ndi mayiko ambiri osauka ochokera ku Africa ndi Latin America.
Sabata ino funso lalikulu loyenera kulilingalira ndilakuti, chifukwa chiyani, chifukwa cha ndale zanyan kotheratu komanso kusayenda bwino kwachuma, dziko la South Africa silinatsitsidwe mpaka kufika pazakudya? S&P idatsitsa chiwopsezo chachitetezo chaboma, koma osati kalasi yangongole (yakunja). Zifukwa zazikulu zomwe S&P idapereka ndikuti:
"Ziwerengero za ku South Africa zikuwonetsa momwe timaonera msika wawukulu komanso wogwira ntchito wandalama zapadziko lonse lapansi, komanso kudzipereka kwa aboma pakuphatikiza ndalama pang'onopang'ono. Tikuwonanso kuti mabungwe aku South Africa, monga makhothi, amakhalabe olimba pamene South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) ikusunga ndondomeko yodziyimira payokha pazachuma. "
Translation:
- "Msika waukulu wadziko komanso wokhazikika wandalama zokhazikika" = ndalama za penshoni ndi inshuwaransi zimangogula ma bondi aboma chifukwa zowongolera zotsalira zimakakamiza 75% yandalama zotere kukhala mkati mwa SA ndikupanga kufunikira kwakukulu kochita kupanga kwa zitetezo za boma;
- "Kudzipereka kwa aboma pakuphatikiza ndalama pang'onopang'ono" = Gordhan adalonjeza kuti kuchepa kwa bajeti kudzatsika kuchokera pa 3.4% mpaka 2.5% pofika 2019, ngakhale izi zikufunika kuti zichepetse zomwe zidalipo kale. chizindikiro ndalama zothandizira anthu. Izi zipangitsa kuti pakhale kuwonjezeka kwaposachedwa kwa olandila 17 miliyoni kugwa kutsika kwa mitengo ya inflation komwe anthu osauka amakumana nawo;
- "Mabungwe aku South Africa, monga makhothi, amakhalabe olimba" = sikuti makhothi amangophwanya nthawi zonse zomwe Zuma wachita, koma chofunika kwambiri amatetezanso ufulu wa katundu, womwe ku South Africa uli pa 24.th otetezeka kwambiri mwa mayiko 140 kufufuzidwa ndi Davos-based World Economic Forum; ndi
- "SARB imasunga malamulo odziyimira pawokha pazandalama" = ngakhale ali ndi ngongole zambiri za ogula (pafupifupi theka la obwereketsa mdziko muno ndi 'kusokonekera kwa ngongole,’ malinga ndi a National Credit Regulator, ataphonya kubweza katatu), SARB yakweza chiwongola dzanja kasanu ndi kamodzi kuyambira 2014, kufika pamlingo wapamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi.
Chifukwa china chomwe S&P chili ndi chiyembekezo ndikuti "Kusokonekera kwa malonda kukutsika pamtengo wotsika wamafuta (omwe amapanga pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo asanu a zinthu zomwe zimagulitsidwa ku South Africa)," koma kwenikweni, kuchepa kwa malonda kunangophulika. South Africa inali ndi malonda a $ 1.4 biliyoni zotsala mu Meyi, koma izi zidafika $330 miliyoni kuchepekedwa mu October. Pakadali pano m'mwezi watha, mtengo wamafuta udakwera 21%, kuchokera $43 mpaka $52 pa mbiya, ndipo Lachisanu latha, mgwirizano waposachedwa wa OPEC kuti achepetse zotulutsa. Zolinga kuti apitilize $60 m'masabata akubwera. (Ndipo ndalama zolimba za randi zomwe zinachitiridwa umboni m’nyengo ya 2016 sizinachepetse kukwera kumeneko: m’mwezi watha, randi linatsika kuchoka pa 13.2/$ kufika pa 13.8/$; chiŵerengero chake chomaliza chinali R6.3/$ zaka zisanu zapitazo.)
Kuwulula chete
Sikuti zowonera za S&P sizikungoyang'ana, zomwe zili m'mawu ake ndizosokonezanso. Ngati tilingalira za zovuta zomwe zingayambitse mavuto azachuma pano, S&P idadzudzula modabwitsa ngongole yakunja ya dzikolo. SARB yomaliza Zolemba za Quarterly malekodi Ngongole yopambana kwambiri kuposa kale lonse (monga chiŵerengero cha GDP) m’mbiri yamakono ya SA: 43% (kuposa mlingo wa kusakhulupirika wa PW Botha wa 40% mu 1985).
Komanso S&P sinenanso zakuyenda kosaloledwa kwazachuma (komwe kwakhalako Akuti ndi Global Financial Integrity pa $20 bn/chaka); kapena ndalama zotsalazo kuchepekedwa chifukwa cha phindu ndi zotuluka (nthawi zambiri zimaposa $10 bn/chaka) kutsatira kuwongolera kosinthana kwakukulu; kapena ziwongola dzanja zapadziko lonse lapansi za South Africa pazaka 10 za bond, pa 9% (yachitatu pakati pazachuma zazikulu 3, kokha m'munsi kuposa mitengo ku Brazil ndi Turkey omwe onse amalipira 11%). Kuchulukitsa kwamakampani pakutulutsa boma - zomwe a Kenneth Brown wa Treasure akuti zimawononga okhometsa misonkho $ 17 biliyoni pachaka - sizitanthauza kutchulidwa.
Kungongole kwa S&P, komabe, bungweli lidapereka otsutsa mabizinesi akuluakulu osachepera ang'onoang'ono powona "zokonda zamakampani zomwe zikuchedwetsa ndalama zachinsinsi, ngakhale kuti ali ndi ndalama zambiri komanso ndalama zambiri." Mu chizindikiro chosiyana, komabe, S&P nayonso anapereka dziko likutsogolera disinvestor, Anglo American, ndi bwino rating pa Lachisanu (mabungwe onse owerengera adatsitsa Anglo kukhala osafunikira mu February). S&P safuna kutsitsa makampani omwe sagulitsa ndalama, komanso kubweza motsogozedwa ndi boma - mwachitsanzo. monga mu 1960s South Korea - si pa makadi. Chifukwa chake pakuwulutsa kwapawailesi kudzudzula koyambira kwamakampani athu akulu ""kugunda kwakukulu" sikunali kokwanira. kutchulidwa ndi magazini yokhayo ya komweko (Lipoti la Bizinesi).
Zimandikhudzabe ngati choncho Gupta ndi (Afrikaner tycoon yochokera ku Stellenbosch) Rupert m'mabanja, mabungwe atatu owerengera apitiliza kukopa chinenezo cha "state capture!" malinga ndi mfundo za boma zomwe banja lachilendo la neoliberal limapereka, limadziwikanso ndi kudzikonda kwakanthawi kochepa, kuyang'anira kwakanthawi kochepa komanso kudziwononga chuma cha dziko. Njira yokhayo yothetsera vutoli ndiyopita patsogolo kusokoneza kuchokera ku mabungwe azachuma padziko lonse lapansi omwe mabungwewa amaunjikira mphamvu zawo zopanda chifukwa.
Patrick Bond amaphunzitsa zachuma ndi zandale ku Wits School of Governance: [imelo ndiotetezedwa]
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