Kulimbana kwamagulu ku South Africa kunatulutsa mendulo ziwiri zagolide mu 2014. The Times, "amene akutsogolera padziko lonse pa nkhani zowononga ndalama, ziphuphu ndi katangale, chinyengo pa kugula zinthu, kuwononga katundu, ndiponso umbava wa pa Intaneti,” ndipo 77 peresenti ya chinyengo chonse cha m’kati mwa anthu ochita katangale ndi akuluakulu apakati. (Izi zitha kuthandizira kufotokozera za SA mu 2013 monga, malinga ndi Fuko la Ndalama Zamdziko Lonse, dziko lachitatu lopindula kwambiri m'mabungwe pakati pazachuma chachikulu.)
Kenako mu Seputembala, kwa chaka chachitatu motsatizana, World Economic Forum ya Lipoti la Global Competitiveness Report adayika gulu la anthu ogwira ntchito ku South Africa kukhala gulu lankhondo lalikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi mwa mayiko 144 omwe adafunsidwa. Kukula kwa kulimbana kwa magulu a anthu ku South Africa kumawonekera m'nkhondo yamalingaliro monga momwe zidalili mu 2012.
Atsogola ku South Africa ndalama zamakampani strategic think tank ndi Center for Development and Enterprise (CDE). Sabata yatha Zowonjezera ku CDE ndi mkulu wa bungwe la Harvard Center for International Development Ricardo Hausmann—“Kukweza “liwiro la liŵiro” la South Africa”—akunena mfundo ziwiri zazikulu zokhudza, choyamba, nkhani yaposachedwa ndipo, chachiwiri, kukwera mtengo kwa ntchito ndi kutsika kwa ntchito.
Monga dandaulo lachitatu, Hausmann akutchula mfundo za anthu olowa m'dziko lodana ndi ogwira ntchito zaluso, nkhani yaying'ono yomwe CDE imachita kampeni pafupipafupi, komanso zomwe ndimavomereza. Nditasamukira ku South Africa mu 1990, malingaliro anga amalingaliro angafotokozedwe mwachidule m'mawu akuti, " kudalirana kwa anthu padziko lonse lapansi ndi deglobalization of capitalization. "
Uku ndi kukondera komweko komwe John Maynard adafotokoza kamodzi keynes: “Malingaliro, chidziwitso, sayansi, kuchereza alendo, maulendo ndi zinthu zomwe ziyenera kukhala zapadziko lonse lapansi. Koma katundu azigwiritsidwa ntchito panyumba nthawi iliyonse yomwe ingatheke, ndipo koposa zonse, ndalama zikhale zadziko. ”
Zosemphana zamaakaunti pano
Makamaka chifukwa chuma cha ku South Africa chatero osati anakhala M'malire a mayiko, makamaka pambuyo poti maulamuliro a kusinthana adachotsedwa pang'ono mu 1995. Makampani ambiri akuluakulu omwe adalembedwa pa Johannesburg Stock Exchange adasamuka zaka zisanu pambuyo pake. Ndipo, mwina chifukwa chakuti chiyambireni kumasula mabizinesi molimbika mu 1994 sitinagule katundu wokhazikika panyumba, chotsatira chake ndi chimodzi mwazosowa zapadziko lonse lapansi zamaakaunti.
Kulipira ngongole zomwe zasokonekera, kubwereketsa komwe kukukulirakulira padziko lonse lapansi kumawonetsa zomwe zitha kukhala vuto lalikulu langongole (yapakati m'deralo, ngongole za boma za ndalama za rand ndi chizindikiro kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe anthu amawononga zimayika dziko la South Africa kumapeto kwa gulu la anzawo omwe akutukuka kumene). Ngongole yakunja yakwera kuchoka pa $25 biliyoni mu 1994 kufika pa $140 biliyoni lerolino; kuyambira 2006, chiŵerengero cha ngongole zakunja/GDP chinakwera kuwirikiza kawiri kuchoka pa 18% mchaka cha 2006 kufika pamalo owopsa a 38%, osati patali kwambiri ndi vuto lapakati pa 1985 pomwe pulezidenti wa tsankho, PW Botha, analibe chochita koma kuchitapo kanthu. kusakhulupirika.
Kodi choyambitsa chake ndi chiyani? Hausmann akuwonetsa kuchepeka kwa akaunti komwe kukukulirakulira chifukwa chakulephera kwathu kugulitsa kwambiri ndi anzathu akunja: "Pamene ine ndi anzanga tidayamba kulangiza boma la South Africa mu 2004 tidagogomezera kufunikira kochulukitsa zogulitsa kunja kuti tipeze ntchito zambiri komanso kuti tipeze ndalama ku akaunti yomwe ilipo. kuchepa. Chifukwa chakusowa kwa mphamvu zogulitsa kunja South Africa sikupita kulikonse. "
Iye akupitiriza kuti, “Ndalama ya rand (ndalama ya SA) yafooka kwambiri, zomwe zikuyenera kukondera zogulitsa kunja kusiyana ndi zochokera kunja, koma sitinawone izi zikukhudza manambala otumiza kunja. Ntchito zotumiza kunja ndizovuta kupanga chifukwa zimafunikira kupikisana ndi ena ogulitsa kunja kumadera ena adziko lapansi. Koma palibe njira yozungulira izi. Kutumiza kunja, ndi ntchito zokhudzana ndi kutumiza kunja, ndizomwe zimakulitsa kukula. ”
Kugogomezera kwa Hausmann pazabwino zamalonda monga pachimake chavuto laakaunti laposachedwa. Pa zaka zisanu zapitazi pomwe pali deta yonse, kuyambira 2009-13, South Africa idasowa ndalama zokwana R14 biliyoni ($ 1.2 biliyoni). Mosiyana, ukonde mwadzina kutuluka kwa phindu, zopindula ndi chiwongoladzanja inali R315 biliyoni ($27.4 biliyoni).
Mwanjira ina, si malonda osakwanira koma kutaya magazi m'thupi zomwe zimabweretsa mavuto. Kutuluka kwa ndalama zololedwa ndi zoletsedwa kuchokera ku South Africa ndizovuta kwambiri kotero kuti zidafika mpaka 23% ya GDP m'chaka chapamwamba cha 2007, malinga kwa katswiri wa zachuma pa yunivesite ya Wits, Seeraj Mohamed.
Vuto la Hausmann ndi CDE ndikuti ngati chifukwa chenicheni chakusokonekera kwa akauntiyi ndi kutchulidwa, mocheperapo kuzindikiridwa moona mtima, funso lotsatira lomveka likubwera: kodi timasiya bwanji kutuluka kwa phindu, zopindula ndi chiwongoladzanja?
Pali mayankho awiri omveka omwe Keynes angavomereze. Choyamba, kuyimitsa ndege zazikulu zosaloledwa, mwa zina poyang'anira makampani monga fib-prone Lonmin-wa mbiri ya Marikana Massacre-omwe Bermuda mkono "wotsatsa" ndi wokwera mtengo mokayikira, malinga ndi Alternative Information and Development Center (AIDC); kapena De Beers, wopereka wamkulu wa CDE yemwe adawononga ndalama zokwana $2.83 biliyoni za diamondi za ku South Africa kuyambira 2005-12, malinga kwa anzanga Khadija Sharife ndi Sarah Bracking.
Mu 2011, Sharife's "Woyipa ndi Wopukutidwa" ovuta imasonyeza kuti, ngakhale kuti 12 peresenti ya diamondi padziko lonse—yokwana madola 1.73 biliyoni—inachokera ku South Africa, ndalama zopezera ndalamazo zinali madola 11 miliyoni okha: “Makampani kuno amalipira ndalama zotsika kwambiri kuposa za mayiko ena a mu Afirika. Makampani amathanso kuchepetsa kapena kuletsa misonkho yogulitsa kunja ngati apereka diamondi zokumbidwa kwanuko ku boma kuti agule - ngakhale boma la South Africa silimagula miyala yamtengo wapatali, nthawi zambiri chifukwa chamitengo yokwera kwambiri. Pakusemphana maganizo kwachiwongola dzanja, a De Beers 'amapereka' antchito olipidwa ku bungweli State Diamond Trader, woimbidwa mlandu woyesa diamondi zoperekedwa ndi De Beers ndi makampani ena ku boma kuti agule.
Wotsogolera wa CDE Ann Bernstein Kodi mukufuna kutsutsana pagulu za kuchepa kwa akaunti, pogwiritsa ntchito De Beers ngati kafukufuku? Ndiko kuti, monga kafukufuku woperekedwa kuti asawonetse "chitsanzo chochititsa chidwi kwambiri cha mayiko ambiri omwe akusintha chuma cha dziko lakumwera kwa Africa" (Botswana), monga momwe wachitira. ankadzinenera a De Beers, koma m'malo mongoganizira za kupeŵa msonkho kwa nyumba ya migodi?
Yankho lachiwiri lodziwikiratu ndikuwongolera ndalama, zomwe zimadziwikanso kuti zowongolera zosinthana, zomwe zidati keynes, "M'malingaliro mwanga kasamalidwe konse ka chuma chapakhomo kumadalira." Izi zikadali zolondola, zaka 80 pambuyo pake, komanso zatsopano lipoti ndi akatswiri a University of Massachusetts James Boyce ndi Léonce Ndikumana, “Njira Zothetsera Mayendedwe Akuluakulu” osiyanasiyana —kuphatikiza njira zowongolera zosinthana zosawononga ndalama—awunikidwanso.
Kunena zowona, poganizira momwe kafukufukuyu aliri wovuta kwa Hausmann ndi CDE, sindiyembekeza kuti akhale oona mtima mokwanira kuti awerenge maphunziro a AIDC, Mohamed, Sharife-Bracking, kapena Boyce-Ndikumana (sadatchulidwepo ndi CDE kapena mabungwe awo. alangizi), osalimbana momasuka ndi zovuta izi.
Komabe zikadziwika bwino zomwe zimayambitsa kuchepeka kwa akaunti yapano komanso njira zothetsera mavuto, mwina anthu aku South Africa atha kulimbana ndi osunga ndalama ndi okhometsa misonkho achiwerewere - monga momwe zidakwaniritsidwira kupeza mwayi wopeza mankhwala a Edzi zaka khumi zapitazo ndikuthetsa kuthandizidwa ndi makampani. tsankho zaka makumi awiri zapitazo?
Hausmann ndi Banki Yadziko Lonse alowa nawo nkhondo yaku South Africa
Hausmann walowa nawo nkhondo yaku South Africa pakhosi. Katswiri wazachuma waku Venezuela yemwenso ndi World Bank mlangizi, nthawi zonse amaitanidwa kuti alankhule molimbikitsa za “zachuma kuphatikiza" kuchokera ku mabanki monga JPMorgan, Citi, ndi Union Bank of Switzerland. Hausmann adalembedwa ntchito ndi Purezidenti wakale wa South Africa Thabo Mbeki ngati mlangizi wake wachuma padziko lonse lapansi kuyambira 2004-08 (zodabwitsa ndizakuti Mbeki wamkulu womaliza wa malankhulidwe monga purezidenti, mu Seputembara 2008, anali atalandira Hugo Chavez).
Koma ali ndi mbiri yodabwitsa. Hausmann anali nduna yokonza mapulani ku Venezuela mu 1992-93, muulamuliro wakatangale, wankhanza, wankhanza wa Carlos Andrés Pérez, ndi sikubisa kusakonda kwake boma lademokalase lomwe lilipo pano, losankhidwa koyamba mu 1998. Tsankho limeneli linawonekera kawiri kawiri:
- mu 2004, pamene Hausmann mlandu kunali Chinyengo chovota pakompyuta mu referendum yokumbukira (chigamulo anakanidwa ndi akatswiri ena ofufuza komanso a Jimmy Carter Center, omwe mwina ali otsogola padziko lonse lapansi a NGO pazisankho; ndi
- Zaka khumi pambuyo pake, pamene Hausmann ndi wolemba nawo molakwika ankadzinenera kuti Purezidenti wa Venezuela Nicolás Maduro anali atatsala pang'ono kubweza ngongole yakunja, motero akukweza chiwongola dzanja cha Venezuela.
As anafotokoza at Venezuela Analaysis ndi wolemba waku South Africa wokangalika ku Boston mgwirizano Suren Moodliar, "Ngati pali kukayikira kulikonse za nkhawa za Hausmann pa anthu osauka, tiyenera kufunsa komwe iwo adapumula pamene anali kulamulira ndikukhazikitsa ndondomeko yochepetsetsa. Mfundo za Hausmann zomwe zimadziwika kuti ndi liti he akudzudzula Nicolás Maduro pomutcha pulezidenti 'chigawenga chotentha.' Munthu angathe ndipo ayenera kudzudzula khalidwe lachiwewe, koma kuwonjezera mawu oti 'tropical' amawonetsa zinthu mosiyana. Awo a ife ochokera ku Global South kapena odziwa bwino tsankho la anthu olamulira amazindikira mosavuta zomwe mawuwa akutanthauza.”
Magulu olamulira amanenedwa chimodzimodzi. Mwa kupotoza deta, Hausmann akunena kuti ku South Africa, “chiŵerengero chimene malipiro akhala akuwonjezeka n’choposa mmene ntchito zikuchulukirachulukira.”
Ndizowona kuti chifukwa cha chiwopsezo cha anthu ambiri kuyambira 2012, pakhala kuchepa kwaposachedwa kwa zokolola za anthu ogwira ntchito (monga momwe munthu angayembekezere popeza kupanga kwakukulu kudayimitsidwa). Koma kuti awonetsere kutsutsa kwake kwa ogwira ntchito ku CDE, Hausmann akuyamba index yake pamalo ochititsa chidwi: gawo lachitatu la 2006.
Mosiyana ndi zimenezi, katswiri wa zachuma Dick Forslund wa ku Alternative Information and Development Center ku Cape Town akupereka chithunzi cha 2000-14 chotengera ku South Africa Reserve Bank's Quarterly Employment Statistics. Limapereka nkhani zabwinoko, zowonetsa momwe zokolola zidachulukira malipiro kuyambira 2002-11.
Mu 2012, Forslund anali chid CDE ndi kabuku chifukwa chonena kuti zokolola zantchito zidatsika ndi 2.5% pachaka m'ma 2000. CDE idafika pazotsatira zodabwitsazi, Forslund anatsutsana, mwa “kugwiritsa ntchito matebulo a ziwerengero aŵiri mmene mbiri yakale yoperekedwa ndi olemba anzawo ntchito imapotoza manambalawo.
Koma zoona zake n’zakuti, Forslund anati, “Zochita za anthu ogwira ntchito zakwera pafupifupi 3%, kotala ndi kotala m’miyezi 12, m’zaka khumi zapitazi. Malipiro enieni awonjezeka pa avareji ya pachaka ya kupitirira pang’ono 2% panthaŵi imodzimodziyo kapena pamlingo wotsikirapo ndi 0.9 peresenti.” Chifukwa cha zimenezi, “gawo la malipiro a ndalama za dziko lakhala likutsika kuyambira 1998. Phindu la ndalama za dzikolo limakwera mofananamo.”
Monga mlangizi wake Hausmann, Banki Yadziko Lonse idagwidwa posachedwa ikugwiritsa ntchito deta yokayikitsa kwambiri Funsani kuti kusalingana kopambana kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi ku South Africa, komwe kuyezedwa ngati Gini Coefficient kuchokera ku 0 (yosafanana pang'ono) mpaka 1 (yosafanana kwambiri), ikufunika kuwerengeranso kuti 'zida zachuma' za msonkho ndi ndalama za boma. Banki imati Gini imatsika kuchokera pa 0.771 mpaka 0.596 izi zikaganiziridwa.
Kupatula kuti Bank amakana kuwerengera ndalama zothandizira boma la South Africa kumakampani, ndiye kuti zomwe akunenazo ndi zopanda pake. (Kukondera kwa banki kumawonekera kwambiri pamene lipotilo liri ndi chidwi kuvomerezedwa ndi a neoliberals akumaloko akufuna kuchepetsa bajeti, ngakhale ogwira ntchito akunena kuti sichinali cholinga chawo.)
Mu imelo kwa ine Lolemba, Disembala 8, wamkulu wazachuma wa World Bank ku Africa Francisco Ferreira adatsutsa nkhawa za anzawo a Gini Coefficient akusokoneza deta. Ndinafunsa makamaka za chisankho chonyalanyaza ndalama zothandizira makampani powerengera zotsatira za ndondomeko ya zachuma pa kusalingana, ndipo iye anayankha kuti: "Ndizotheka kuti anthu oganiza bwino akhoza kusagwirizana pa zisankho zinazake zomwe zatengedwa. Izi zati, njira yomwe [ogwira ntchito ku Pretoria] yandikhudza ine ndekha monga yoganiziridwa bwino, yomveka bwino, komanso yogwiritsiridwa ntchito bwino.
Ndi zimenezotu: kutsimikiziranso mopanda manyazi za kukondera kwa banki ndi kuvomereza “kumveka bwino” kwakusalinganika koipitsitsa kwa dziko lililonse lalikulu padziko lapansi. Pempho langa kwa Bank kuti tikambirane pagulu? Kunyalanyazidwa.
Mavuto azachuma ku South Africa akuipiraipira. Ndipo kutuluka kwakukulu mu akaunti yamakono, kuchepa kwa malipiro ndi phindu ngakhale kumenyedwa kwakukulu, ndi kusalinganika kodabwitsa kwa dziko palimodzi kumalongosola chifukwa chake gulu limodzi likupambana momveka bwino pakulimbana kwamagulu apa: likulu.
Koma izi sizikutanthauza kuti malingaliro amalikulu ali ndi kuyenera; iwo satero, monga mukuonera pambuyo ngakhale kusanthula kozama kwa kalasi.
Patrick Bond otsogolera University of KwaZulu-Natal Center for Civil Society ku Durban.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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