GREG WILPERT: Ndiyo The Real News Network, uye ini ndiri Greg Wilpert muBaltimore.
Imwe yenhaurirano huru dzehutongi hwaTrump pamwe nevanopikisa veVenezuela nderekuti Venezuela iri kutambura nedambudziko revanhu risati ramboitika nekuti hupfumi hwayo hwadonha. Sekureva kwavo chikonzero chedambudziko rehupfumi uye kutama kubva kuVenezuela kuri mukuyedza kuvaka socialism muVenezuela.
DONALD TRUMP: Asi chinhu chinosuwisa zvikuru. Hatisi kutsvaga chimwe chinhu kunze kwekuchengeta vanhu vazhinji vari kufa nenzara mumigwagwa. Zviri kuitika ikoko zvinonyadzisa. Iyi yaive imwe yenyika dzakapfuma kwazvo pasi rose, uye kamwe-kamwe yangova, ine makaro, ine urombo. Hapana chikafu, hapana mvura, hapana air conditioning, hapana chero chinhu.
GREG WILPERT: Tichisiya mubvunzo wekuti mamiriro ezvinhu akakodzera here kunzi dambudziko revanhu, chimwe chinhu chaimbova Mutori wenhau weUnited Nations, Alfred de Zayas, chakapokana, chisingarambiki ndechekuti kune dambudziko rehupfumi muVenezuela. Chaizvoizvo izvi hupfumi, dambudziko pamwe nekukwira kwayo kukuru uye kushomeka, rakauya sei? Mhosva ndeyaani? Uye socialism ndiyo ine mhosva here? Uye Venezuela inogona kubuda mudambudziko rehupfumi iri?
Tisati taongorora maitiro ehupfumi hweVenezuela panguva yemutungamiri weMaduro, zvine musoro kuti titarise muchidimbu nguva iyo Maduro asati atora chigaro. Kubva muzana ramakore rechi20, Venezuela yave iri nyika huru inotengesera mafuta kunze. Sezvineiwo, muna 1920 Venezuela ndiyo yaive musika mukuru weoiri kunze kwenyika. Kugadzirwa kwemafuta ekuMiddle East hakuna kudarika Venezuela kusvika kuma1960. Kungofanana nanhasi, kare kare oiri kutengesa kunze kwenyika kwakagadzira pamusoro pe90 muzana yemari yeVenezuela. Somugumisiro, mamwe marudzi ose okugadzirwa kweupfumi, akadai sokurima, akaderera kusvika pachikamu chiduku zvikuru chebasa roupfumi hwenyika. Chero bedzi mitengo yemafuta yakakwira, izvo zvavakaita zvakaringana kusvika mukupera kwema1970, hupfumi hweVenezuela hwakakura pamwe chete nekukwira kwemitengo yemafuta. Hupfumi hwakawedzera apo mitengo yemafuta yakawedzera zvakapetwa kana pakurambidzwa kwemafuta eOPEC muna 1978.
Zvisinei, zvishoma nezvishoma, mitengo yemafuta yakatanga kupinda muchikamu chekusagadzikana uye kunyange kudzikira, ichidzika pasi pemadhora gumi padhiramu muna 10, gore iro Chavez akasarudzwa kuva purezidhendi weVenezuela. Pamwe chete nekusagadzikana kwemutengo wemafuta uku, hupfumi hweVenezuela hwakanyurawo kubva kune rimwe dambudziko kuenda kune rinotevera. Izvi zvakapa mamiriro esarudzo yaHugo Chavez muna 1998. VeVenezuela vakanga vaneta nekusagadzikana kwehupfumi uye kuderera kunoramba kuripo. Real per capita GDP yakanga yadzikira nezvikamu makumi maviri nezvinomwe kubva muzana mumakore makumi maviri pakati pa1998 na27. Zvichakadaro, urombo hwakakwira kubva pa20 kubva muzana kuenda pa1979 muzana. Chavez chakatanga kuita panyaya dzehupfumi ndechekukwidza mitengo yemafuta. Akashanyira nyika dziri nhengo dzeOPEC uye akakoka musangano wechipiri wevakuru venyika dzeOPEC muCaracas mukupera kwa1999 kuti vanyengetedze nhengo dzeOPEC kuti dzitevedzere chiyero chekugadzirwa kwemafuta uye kukwidza mitengo yemafuta. Zvishoma nezvishoma mitengo yemafuta yakakwira, nekuwedzera kusimba nekuda kwehondo yeIraq muna 15. Mitengo yemafuta yakaramba ichikwira zvishoma nezvishoma munguva yose iyi, ichisvika pakakwirira pamadhora zana nemakumi mana padhiramu Lehman Brothers isati yaparara uye dambudziko rezvemari repasi rose ra65. Saizvozvowo, veVenezuela hupfumi hwakawedzera uye GDP yega yega yakakwira zvishoma nezvishoma, ichiwedzera ne2000 muzana, uye urombo hwakadzika nehafu kubva pa2003 muzana kusvika 140 muzana yemhuri pakati pa2008 na35.
Nguva nyowani yekusagadzikana yakagadzwa mukutevera dambudziko rezvemari pasi rose apo Chavez akafunga kudzikisa mari inoshandiswa neveruzhinji nekuti mari dzemafuta dzaive dzadzikira. Sezvo mitengo yadzoreredza hupfumi hwakapora zvakare. Kushoropodza kwakajairika kwekutonga kwehupfumi hwaChavez panguva iyi ndeyekuti mari yemafuta haina kushandiswa kusiyanisa hupfumi. Izvi, zvisinei, hazvisi zvechokwadi. Chavez akaedza kusiyanisa hupfumi nekudyara mabhiriyoni emadhora kubva mumari yemafuta mune zvekurima uye munzvimbo itsva dzekugadzira maindasitiri, kubva panharembozha kuenda kumotokari kusvika kubhasikoro kusvika kune zvigadzirwa zvepetrochemical. Zvakare, kudyara kukuru muzvirongwa zvedzidzo kwaive kwakanangana nekubatsira kusiyanisa hupfumi.
Pakupedzisira, kunyanguvezvo, kuedza uku mukusiyana kwakakundikana. Vakakundikana nokuda kwezvikonzero zviviri zvakada kufanana. Kutanga, kubva muna 2003, hurumende yakaisa mwero wekuchinjana wakasarudzika kuitira kudzora kubhururuka kwemari uye kudzikira kwemari yayo, uyezve senzira yekubhadhara zvinhu zvakakosha kuburikidza nekubvumira vanopinda kunze kwenyika zvinhu zvakaita sechikafu nemishonga kuwana madhora akachipa. . Iyo yakatarwa yekutsinhana hurongwa yakashanda zvine musoro chero paine madhora akakwana aiuya muhupfumi. Zvakadaro, mutengo wemafuta pawakatanga kudzikira, kutanga muna 2008 uyezve muna 2014, hurumende yakadzikisa mari yayaiwana pakutenga madhora nemutengo wepamutemo uye nekudaro yekutenga kunze kwenyika. Izvi zvaireva kuti kunze kwenyika kwakadzikira uye mitengo yazvo yakakwira, izvo zvave kuwedzera inflation. Hurumende yakaedza kuchengetedza mitengo yakaderera kupfurikidza nokubatirira pachiyero chekuchinjana chakatarwa, uye kupfurikidza nokuunza kudzora kwakasimba kwemitengo. Asi kuita kwemisika mitema kwakatenderedza mitemo iyi, zvichikonzera kukwira kwemitengo kwakawanda, kukanganiswa kwemitengo, nemikana isingaverengeki yehuori.
Pakarepo mushure mekufa kweMutungamiri Chavez kubva kugomarara munaKurume 2013, kudzvanywa kwemari muchimiro chemusika mutema wekuchinjana kwakatora kumwe kurova. Mukaha uripo pakati pemutengo wemari wepamutemo nemutengo wekuchinjana wemusika mutema wakatanga kuwedzera kusvika pazvisati zvamboitika, zvichiwedzera kuwedzera inflation, huori, uye kushomeka. Mitengo yemafuta payakadzikira mukati megore rekutanga raMaduro muhofisi, ichideredza kutengeswa kwemafuta kubva kunze kwenyika, kutenderera uku kwakawedzera zvakare. Maduro akaedza kugadzirisa marongero ake ehupfumi nguva nenguva nekugadzirisa chiyero chekuchinjana chepamutemo zvishoma, asi gaka riri pakati peiyo chiyero chekuchinjana uye musika mutema wakaramba uchikura, zvekuti dhora rakatengwa pamutengo wepamutemo rinopedzisira rangodhura 1/100 yei. inodhura pamusika mutema. Zvino muna 2015 Mutungamiri Obama vakazivisa Venezuela se "chisina kujairika uye chinoshamisa kutyisidzira kuchengetedzeka kwenyika yeUnited States," zvichimubvumira kuisa zvirango zvakanangwa kune vamwe vakuru vakuru vehurumende iyo US inopomerwa mhosva yekuita zvinodhaka kana huori. Zvirango izvi, kunyangwe zvanga zvakanangana nevanhu, zvakatanga kuwanda kwezvirambidzo zvemari pakutengeserana kwemari yeVenezuel nemaakaundi ekubhanga, zvichikonzera kuvharwa kwemaakaunti, zvichiita kuti kunze kwenyika nekutengeserana kwemari kuomerwe nehurumende.
Muna Nyamavhuvhu 2017, Mutungamiri Trump vakawedzera zvirango zvakanyanya nekurambidza masangano eUS nevanhuwo zvavo kutengesa muchikwereti cheVenezuela. Izvi zvakaita kuti zvitadze kuti Venezuela igadzirise chikwereti chayo, uyezve yakadzora hurumende kugona kuita kutengeserana nedzimwe nyika. Yakanga isiri masanga kuti kugadzirwa kwemafuta eVenezuela kwakatanga kudzikira panguva imwe chete iyo zvirango zvekutonga kwaTrump zvakatanga kushanda. Indasitiri yemafuta yeVenezuela inotsamira pane yakakosha kutsiva zvikamu uye mafuta anobva kuUS, izvo zvayaisakwanisa kupinza kunze. Nekuda kweizvozvo, kugadzirwa kwemafuta eVenezuela kwakaderera kubva pamamiriyoni maviri emadhora pazuva kusvika kumamiriyoni 2 pakati paAugust 1.2 naAugust 2017. Kukurumidza kuderera kwemari yemafuta kubva ku $ 2018 bhiriyoni mu93.6 kusvika ku $ 2012 bhiriyoni mu30.9 kwakakonzera kukurumidza kuderera kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika. Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwakawedzerawo kubva pamabhiriyoni makumi matanhatu nematanhatu emadhora muna 2018 kusvika pamadhora bhiriyoni gumi nerimwe muna 66. Kudzikira kwezvakatengwa kunze kwenyika, pamwe nekubiwa kwezvigadzirwa zvazvinopihwa nerubatsiro kune dzimwe nyika dzakavakidzana neBrazil neColombia, zvaireva kuti pakanga paine kushomeka kwechikafu nemishonga.
Pakazopera 2017 kushomeka uye inflation yainge yanyanya kuipa zvekuti hyperinflation yakatanga. Inflation yakaramba ichikwira nekuda kweiyo gap rinoramba richikura pakati pechitsinhano chepamutemo neiyo black market exchange rate. Sezvo zvigadzirwa zvakawanda zvakaunzwa kunze kwenyika pasina betsero, vaVenezuela nokudaro vakamanikidzirwa kupinda munzvimbo yokushandisa mari yavo pakarepo pavakaiwana, kuitira kuti vave nechokwadi chokuti hairasikirwi noukoshi hupi nohupi pavaiva nayo. Dzimwe nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinofungidzira kuti mari yakaraswa neVenezuela nekuda kwekuderera kwekugadzirwa kweoiri inofungidzirwa kuti yaisvika mabhiriyoni matanhatu emadhora pagore. Pamusoro pezvo, zvirango izvi zvatadzisa Venezuela kudzosera bhiriyoni imwe yemadhora pagore kubva kukambani yayo yemafuta yekuUS CITGO. Hurumende yeVenezuela inofungidzira kuti kurasikirwa kwese kwemari kuhurumende mumakore mana apfuura nekuda kwezvirango kunosvika mabhiriyoni makumi matatu emadhora. Mari yakarasika nekuda kwezvirango, kuderera kwemutengo wemafuta, uye hyperinflation yakagadzira dutu rehupfumi rakakonzera kuderera kunoshamisa kwehupfumi hweVenezuela. Pakazosvika 6, pamunhu GDP yakanga yadzikira ne1/30 maererano nedanho rayo muna 2017.
Mubvunzo mukuru panguva ino wasara ndewekuti Chavez naMaduro vaigona here kubata hupfumi nenzira dzakasiyana kuitira kuti husave muhuipi hunotyisa hwazviri ikozvino. Mubvunzo uyu wakaoma kupindura, asi pane zvimwe zvinhu zvitatu zvine chekuita nezveupfumi hwenyika izvo Chavez akatadza kugadzirisa panguva yehutungamiriri hwake. Chekutanga, sekupokana kwaita vazhinji, Chavez akatadza kurumura Venezuela kubva mumafuta. Zvisinei, sezvambotaurwa, izvi hazvisi zvekushaiwa kuedza. Chavez akadyara mabhiriyoni mukuedza kwakasiyana siyana kuwedzera mafuta anotorwa, kugadzira, uye kugadzirwa kwekurima. Zvisinei, inonzi nenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi 'chirwere cheDutch' chakaramba chichienderera mberi, izvo zvakaita kuti mari yemunyika iwedzere kukosheswa, uye nzvimbo itsva idzi hadzina kukwanisa kukwikwidzana nekutenga zvinhu kunze zvakachipa zvikuru, zvichiita kuti dzisanyanya hupfumi.
Chechipiri, Chavez haana kutora kuderera kwemutengo wemafuta. Chaizvoizvo, pakutanga kwehutungamiriri hwake Chavez akafunga kusagadzikana sedambudziko uye akatsigira kuumbwa kwehomwe yehupfumi yakazvimirira inonzi Macroeconomic Investment and Stabilization Fund. Yakanga yakagadzirirwa kuisa parutivi mari apo mutengo wemafuta wakakwira, uye yakabvumira hurumende kutora pairi kana mutengo wakaderera, nokudaro manheru kunze kwekuyerera kwemari yemafuta. Nekudaro, zvichitevera kudzimwa kweindasitiri yeoiri muna 2003, apo mari yaiwanikwa yaive shoma uye mutengo wemafuta wakatanga kukwira nekukurumidza, nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzeindasitiri yemafuta dzakatanga kufungidzira nezve peak oiri uye kusadzivirika kwekudzikira kwekugadzirwa kweoiri. Kufungidzira kwaitenderera panguva yekuti mutengo wemafuta waizosvika pamadhora mazana maviri padhiramu. Chavez akabvisa homwe iyi achifunga kuti yakanga isingachadiwi.
Chechitatu, zvakare zvichitevera kuvharika kweindasitiri yemafuta muna 2003, Chavez akaunza yakadzora yakadzora yakagadziriswa chiyero chekuchinjana. Izvi pasina mubvunzo zvaive zvakakosha panguva iyoyo nekuda kwekumhanya kwemari yeVenezuelan, Bolivar, mushure mekuedza kwe2002 uye kuvharwa kweindasitiri yemafuta muna 2003. Chero bedzi mari yemafuta ichiyerera uye ichiramba ichiwedzera, iyo zvaive nyore kuchengetedza iyi yakagadziriswa mwero wekuchinjana. Zvisinei, muna 2013 apo Chavez akafa, mukaha pakati pehuwandu hwepamutemo uye chiyero chemusika mutema chakanga chakura zvokuti kugadzirisa kwaizoreva kuparara kukuru kwehupfumi, Neyo Maduro akanga asingadi, uye mune zvematongerwo enyika zvichida asingakwanisi, kuisa pangozi.
Chekupedzisira, hatigone kusiya kunze kukanganisa kwezvirango. Sezvambotaurwa, migumisiro yavo yave ichiparadza. Asi handizvo zviri kukonzera kutanga kwedambudziko rehupfumi. Asi, midzi yedambudziko inogona kuwanikwa mukubhururuka kukuru kwemari uye kuedza kwakabatana kuchengetedza yakagadziriswa asi yakakurisa mutengo wekuchinjana. Kusaita mukutarisana nekukanganiswa kwemitengo kunoramba kuchikura uye kusiyana kwemitengo pakati peVenezuela nevavakidzani vayo, uye kusakwanisa kukunda zvipingamupinyi zvekugadzirisa hupfumi, zvirango zvino zvaita kuti mamiriro ezvinhu akaipa atonyanya kuipa, uye pamusoro payo zvinenge zvisingaiti kuti hurumende itore matanho ekugadzirisa, nokuti haina mari yekuita izvozvo.
Uyu Greg Wilpert weThe Real News Network. Tinotenda nekubatana nesu.
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Sezvo Greg anojekesa, zvinhu hazviwanzo kuita sezvazvinoratidzika munhau dzemazuva ese, uye chii chinotyaira nhepfenyuro iyi ikozvino chakatonyanya kuipa nekuti kune yakarongwa dhiraivha yekuparadza Venezuela munzira dzese dzinogoneka, ikozvino, ipfupi nekuvhomora kwemauto neUS. overt forces.
Somuenzaniso, tinonzwa kuti Colombia iri kugamuchira mamiriyoni 1.5 kubva kuVenezuela, vakawanda kana vashoma sevapoteri. Kuti izvi zvakarurama here kana kuti kwete, tingasaziva. Asi mishumo yave iripo kwenguva refu ichiti pamwe zvakapetwa kaviri kubva kuColombia mumakore achangopfuura nekuda kwekuti Colombia ndiyo inzvimbo dzine mhirizhonga uye huwori zvakanyanya muLatin America, asi zvakare ndiyo chete inowanikwa mubatsiri iyo US inayo munzvimbo iyoyo. uye mumwe anoda kuve nekuiswa kwemauto eUS. Ehe, manejimendi eUS haatarisiri kuti mugari wepakati azive izvi muUS. Hupfumi hweColombia kwemakore mazhinji hwave nechikamu chikuru chezvinodhaka icho chinotsamira pachiri, asi chokwadi US haisi kuzotaura pamusoro peizvi. Hazvisi nyore kuve uye kuramba uine ruzivo nezvenyaya idzi, asi pane refu uye yakajairika maitiro eUS akamonyoroka kubatanidzwa.