Musangano weWorld Economic Forum uri kusangana muDavos svondo rino. Kuunganidzwa kwevazhinji vevakapfuma vemakambani epamusoro uye vatungamiri venyika kunomanikidza kufunga nzira nyonganiso yepasi rose yecapitalist inogona kutitora muna 2023. Ndezvipi zvidzidzo zvatakawana kubva mukuderedzwa kwehupfumi hwakawanda kudaro - kusanganisira hupfumi hwevanotungamira plutocrats - muna 2022? pakati pekutambura kwakanyanya kwezvematongerwo enyika, kwezvakatipoteredza uye zvemagariro nehupfumi?
Muchikamu chinoratidzwa mune itsva Forum Global Risk Report 2023, pane pfungwa itsva yekuvhunduka pakati pevanopinda 2,700, avo gore rino - makumi mashanu nevatatu.rd musangano wakadai uchitungamirwa naKlaus Schwab - unosanganisira vatungamiriri veEuropean Union, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, Germany, Finland, Greece, Spain, Philippines, South Korea neSouth Africa, pamwe chete nemabhirioni zana (asi hapana anobva kuRussia nekuda kwezvirango. )
Dingindira reForamu, "Kubatirana Munyika Yakatsemuka" rinoratidza kushandiswa kwezwi idzva (rakafarirwa nguva pfupi yadarika nenyanzvi munyaya dzezvematongerwo enyika yeColumbia University Adam Tooze): "Tine njodzi iyi yekubuda kwepolycrisis," anotsiva Schwab Saadia Zahidi anopokana, "nekuti. zvinhu zvakawanda zviri kuitika panguva imwe chete.” Munguva yepedyo-isingabatsiri kupindira kwemarudzi akawanda, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini bhuku rekupedzisira rinopisa matambudziko epasi rose kusvika gumi. MegaThreats.
Vazhinji vanopinda Forum vanonyatsoziva nezvehupfumi hwe polycrisis. Kunyangwe kudarika mabhiriyoni akati wandei emadhora 'anokosha ekuparadza ane chekuita nekupinda kweRussia kuUkraine, simba uye kusagadzikana kwemusika wezvekudya, njodzi dzemamiriro ekunze, Covid-19 yakasimba kana kuguma kweChina nekukurumidza kuvharika kwedenda, kwave nekumwe shanduko yetectonic mukukosheswa kwemidziyo. zvinonetsa vanhu vepamusoro ava, vazhinji vavo vanouya kuDavos varombo kupfuura musangano wapfuura Chivabvu apfuura.
Uye kushushikana kwakadaro kunogonawo kutungamira mafambiro emagariro, evashandi uye ezvakatipoteredza - uye pamwe nevatungamiriri vashoma vehurumende dzinofambira mberi - pavanenge vachiongorora shanduko dzekuunganidza mari dzavanonetsekana nadzo, pfungwa inotorwa muchinyorwa chinotevera.
Semuyenzaniso, matambudziko echikwereti cha2022 uye misika yemusango uye kushanduka kwemari - zvakanyanya kuenderana nekukwira kwemitengo yemubereko inoiswa neUS Federal Reserve pamwe nemabhanga epakati, kurwisa kukwira kwemitengo kwakanyanya - zviratidzo zvakakosha. Ivo havangozivise chete mafambiro ezvehupfumi epasi rose ("mutengo-we-kurarama"), asi zvakare anoratidza kudzika kwakadzika kwekuti nechero nhoroondo mumwedzi iri kuuya kuchaita kuti mumwedzi iri kuuya kukonzerese kurwadza kwemagariro uye kudzivirira kupora kunodikanwa kwezvakatipoteredza.
Tinogona kutanga nekurangarira kuti maitiro ebudiriro asina kuenzana akakonzerwa sei nekupokana kwezvehupfumi uye kupokana kwemitemo yenyika mumakore makumi mashanu apfuura, kubvira muna 50 zvakakonzera kuchinja kwemasimba mukati mehupfumi hwenyika hwezvematongerwo enyika:
- kwenguva refu (makore makumi mashanu) maitiro e "kuwandisa kwemari" - kureva, masimba akawandisa ari kubuda muzvikamu zvehupfumi zvepasi rose, zvinyorwa, hupfumi hwemari uye misika yevashandi - izvo zvisati zvambogadziriswa zvakanaka, asi panzvimbo pekudzingwa, senge. kuburikidza neEast Asia's refu boom;
- Kumira kwakakonzera kuderera kwekubuda kweWestern capitalist, kunze kwemaindasitiri ekuwedzera ayo aigara achichinja - kubva 2005-014 uye 2020-22 - se "commodity super-cycle" kukwira kwemitengo kwakakwezva vatengesi uye kupa mibairo matunhu ekuwedzera emari;
- kuvharwa kwemaindastiri akawanda ekushanda nesimba aimbozvirumbidza mafekitari makuru, uye kutsiviwa kwakapararira kwevashandi nemichina;
- iyo ascendant kirasi simba re kwete chete mudzimba uye yepasirese mari capital, asiwo mune dzakawanda hupfumi, kunze-inotungamirwa uye mercantile capital; uye
- hutongi hwepfungwa ye “Washington Consensus”, kusimudzira kudzoreredzwa kweneoliberal, kushambadzira uye kuita purofiti kupihwa kwete chete zvinhu nemasevhisi asiwo zvivakwa (uye nekudaro kurongeka kwekudyara kwemari munzvimbo dzezwi dzisingaonekwe dziine mari yakakwana).
Zvichitevera nhanho yekutanga yedambudziko rekuwandisa kwepasi rose muma1970, kunyanya kutora chimiro che "stagflation" (kusamira kwakasanganiswa nekukwira kwemitengo), ma1980 aive eNyika Yetatu makore gumi akarasika nekuda kwekuwanda kwechikwereti. Kubva mukupera kwema1980, kubuda kwemari nguva nenguva - uye kuputika kwechikamu - kwakava pachena, zvichitungamira US Federal Reserve kugwaro rekubvisa mari yechibatiso kumasangano anonzi "akakura kwazvo kuti atadze." Sezvo kusagadzikana kwemari kwakaenderera mberi pakati/pakupera-1990s misika ichiri kusimukira, kutadza kweLong Term Capital Management, kuparara kwedot.com, saka kusaenzana kwakawedzerawo.
Hungwaru hwebhangi repakati reWestern bank hwakatanga kusanganisira "Quantitative Easing" - ichimhanyisa muchina wekudhinda mari nekukurumidza - pamusoro pekubhadhara mari yechibatiso uye mibairo yakaderera kubva mukupera kwa2008, sekubhengi kwekudyara, inishuwarenzi uye kuparara kwehupfumi kwakakura kubva US pasi rose. Maitiro aya akadzokororwa kubva munaKurume 2020 kusvika muna Mbudzi 2021, uye nemari yehupfumi padanho repamusoro, hurombo nekusaenzana kwakawedzera pamwe nekutambura kweCovid-19, sezvo vanhu vanosvika mamirioni gumi nemashanu vakafa (neimwe miriyoni yeChina yaitarisirwa kufa kutanga kwa15. sezvo zvivharo zvakasimba zvakarerutswa).
Izvi zvese zvaigutsa kune avo vari pamusoro-soro pepiramidhi rehupfumi, kusvika 2022. Kare, kubva munaKurume 2020 kusvika Mbudzi 2021, hupfumi hwevarume gumi vakapfuma pasi rose hwakakwira kubva pamadhora mazana manomwe emadhora kusvika pamadhora bhiriyoni gumi nemazana mashanu.
Panguva iyoyo, rondedzero yakapfuma yakatungamirwa neakaberekerwa muPretoria, Johannesburg-akasimudzwa tech muzvinabhizimusi, Elon Musk, ane mafemu makuru aive Tesla neSpaceX. Pakupera kwa2021, hupfumi hwake hwakakwira kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu emadhora, hukaputika nezvikamu zvinopfuura zana muzana panguva yeCovid-300. Amazon shopping muvambi Jeff Bezos akati inongopfuura mabhiriyoni mazana maviri emadhora muzvinhu, uye mu1000th-8th zvinzvimbo vaive tech uye Big Data tycoons Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Mark Zuckerberg naSteve Ballmer, vese vari pakati pemadhora zana nemakumi matatu nemasere emadhora.
The plutocrats 'roller-coaster
Asi zvinhu zvakachinja zvakanyanya muna 2022, sezvo mazhinji emapotifolio akapfuma pasirese akadonha pakupera kwegore:
Vanhu gumi nevaviri vakapfuma pasirese, Zvita 2022, maererano neForbes
chinzvimbo | zita | Mabhiriyoni | mabviro | nyika |
1 | Bernard Arnault | $179.1 | LVMH | Furanzi |
2 | Elon musk | $146.5 | Tesla, SpaceX | nyika dzakabatana |
3 | Gautam Adani | $127.7 | Infrastructure | India |
4 | Warren Buffett | $107.6 | Berkshire Hathaway | nyika dzakabatana |
5 | Jeff Bezos | $107.3 | Amazon | nyika dzakabatana |
6 | Bill Gates | $103.3 | Microsoft | nyika dzakabatana |
7 | Larry Ellison | $102.4 | pangataura | nyika dzakabatana |
8 | Mukesh Ambani | $89.6 | Diversified | India |
9 | Carlos Slim Helu | $81.4 | Telecom | Mekisiko |
10 | Steve Ballmer | $78.5 | Microsoft | nyika dzakabatana |
11 | Larry Page | $77.3 | nyika dzakabatana | |
12 | Michael Bloomberg | $76.8 | Nhoroondo ye Bloomberg L.P. | nyika dzakabatana |
Source: https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/
Nekuda kwezvinhu zvakanyanya kudarika kudzora kweava plutocrats, muna 2022 vakatambura nekuderera kwehupfumi kusati kwamboitika, nevanhu mazana mashanu epamusoro uye mhuri dzakadzika madhora mazana mashanu emadhora. Musk akadzika nepakati kusvika kumadhora mazana mana nemakumi mana nematanhatu emadhora mushure mekubhejera madhora mabhiriyoni makumi mana nemana pakutenga zvake zvekuzvivaraidza nazvo zvenhau, Twitter. Kukosha kwaTesla kwakadonha nezvikamu makumi matanhatu neshanu muzana muna 500 zvichipihwazve kusavimbika neanodyara mari mukutonga kwake nguva, kukura uye pfungwa dzakajairika, nekutanga kwa1.4 zvichipa magumo mukurasikirwa. Bezos 'net yakakosha yakadonhawo, kusvika kumadhora zana nemakumi manomwe emadhora, zvakanyanya nekuda kweAmazon kurasikirwa nehafu yekukosha kwayo (uye zvakazoitika pakurambana kunoparadza hupfumi).
Izvi zvakasiya tycoon yeFrance Bernard Arnault semupfumi pasi rose, asi vangangoita mamwe mabhiriyoni emadhora aibva kuUS, kunze kwemaIndia maviri - Gautam Adani uye. Mukesh Ambani - uye mumiriri wezvekufonera wekuMexico Carlos Slim. Zvose Forbes ' 2022 vakapfuma vakanyorwa kuderera kwenzvimbo pakati pe2,668 mabhirioni: "Kudonha kwakanyanya kwazvo kwakaitika muRussia, uko kune 34 vashoma mabhiriyoni kupfuura gore rapfuura" (oligarchs yakarohwa zvakanyanya nezvirango zvemari yaisanganisira Vladimir Potanin, Leonid Mikhelson, Vladimir Lisin, Alisher Usmanov. , Alexey Mordashov, Roman Abramovich, Gennady Timchenko, Suleiman Kerimov, Victor Rashnikov, Alexei Mordashov nevamwe).
Zvichakadaro muChina, mutemo wakasimba weBeijing weBig Tech wakaderedza huwandu hwemabhirioni eChinese kubva pa694 kusvika pa607 (wechipiri kuUS ne735), kusanganisira avo vari kuHong Kong neMacau. Vaviri vanonyanya kuzivikanwa, "Pony" Ma Huateng weTencent naJack Ma weAlibaba, vakawira pasi pemadhora makumi mana emadhora mune imwe neimwe.
William Robinson anonyora mubhuku rake idzva, Ko Global Capitalism Inogona Kutsungirira?, kuti boka iri rinomiririra hutungamiriri hweTransnational Capitalist Kirasi yakagadzirwa kubva pasi rose "kubatanidzwa kwezvikamu zvinotungamira pakati pemapoka erudzi rwecapitalist." Asi kusimba - uye kugona kuita pamwe chete - kwe "varidzi nemaneja emakambani makuru epasi rose nemasangano ezvemari ari kufambisa hupfumi hwenyika" zvakazopokana muna 2022.
Transnational capitalists 'strategic void
Nepo zvekutaura pachiita kunge kune boka rakadai, rine mazita nemafungiro angave akaitwa pachena kana kusiiwa akasarudzika (kuburikidza nezvinofarirwa neWorld Economic Forum, Bilderberg Group nemamwe makuru makuru network), kuri mukushandura mazwi kuita chiito kuti kubatana kwe kirasi inogona kuzivikanwa. Uye iro simba rekirasi retransnational capitalism riri mubvunzo, zvichipihwa masangano ayo anotungamira 'kutadza kwazvino, kunyanya mumubatanidzwa wenyika dzakasiyana-siyana: kunyanya Bretton Woods Institutions neWorld Trade Organisation, kana kunyange nzvimbo inonyanya kubatsira Big Oil inofarira kupokana nemamiriro ekunze. fossil fuels - iyo 1994 Energy Charter Treaty, iyo inopa Investor-State Dispute Resolution nzira inofarira capital uye kudzivirira yakasimba emissions-kuderedza mitemo.
Kuve nechokwadi, kutadza kwekudyidzana kwenyika dzakawanda mumakumi emakore achangopfuura kunoratidza ruvengo rwezvematongerwo enyika kune marudzi emhinduro dzepasirese dzinodiwa kutenderera kwazvino kwematambudziko epasirese. Sekutaura kunoita Robinson, ava vepamusoro pamwe nevezvematongerwo enyika vakabhadharwa vachiri "vasina mashandiro ezvematongerwo enyika ekugadzirisa dambudziko, kudzikamisa hurongwa hutsva hwepasi rose, uye kuvakazve capitalist hegemony, zvichipihwa kusawirirana pakati pehupfumi hwepasi rose uye nyika-yakavakirwa hurongwa masimba ezvematongerwo enyika.”
Pasina nzira yakabatana yekuunganidza mari, mamaneja emari anotungamira aitaridza kuve akanyanya kupusa, nekuti "Sezvo mikana yaoma yekufungidzira kwekudyara mune rimwe chikamu, Transnational Capitalist Kirasi yakangotendeukira kune imwe chikamu kuti iburitse zvayakasara," Robinson akadaro. Chokwadi muna 2022, kuwedzera kwemari muBig Data kunogona kunge kwakadzikira (nguva pfupi, sezvakaita Dot.Com bubble rakaputika muna 2000-01), kunyanya pakati pevakatanga ma2010s 'akaputika FANG shares (Facebook, Apple, Netflix uye. Google) uye makambani maviri makuru eChina (Tencent neAlibaba).
Zvakangodaro, kukoshesa kukuru kwekugovana muna 2022 kwakaitika mune mamwe zvikamu. Musika mukuru wepasi rose wezvemari - iyo New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) - yakapupurira kukwira kuri kuita "mari yemanyepo" (izvo Karl Marx akadana kumiririra kwepepa kwezvinhu, semasheya emusika wemasheya) muzvikamu zvitatu: Big Oil, the Military. -Industrial Complex uye Big Pharma. Iri rombo rakanaka raive mhedzisiro yedambudziko resimba, kupinda kweRussia kuUkraine uye kupihwa kwemabhirioni gumi nematatu ekudzivirira kweCovid-13 muna 19-2021, zvichiteerana.
Mafemu eUS Exxon neChevron akatungamira NYSE muna 2022, pa80 ne53 muzana mutengo wemasheya uchikwira zvichiteerana, ukuwo mana anotevera makuru - Norway's Equinor, London-based Shell neBP neParis-based Total - vese vakapupurira kukosha kwekugovana kunowedzera kubva. 28 kusvika 40 muzana muna 2022. Kubva kuBig Pharma, vaviri vahwina vakuru vaive Merck naEli Lilly pamakumi mana neshanu nemakumi matatu neshanu muzana, zvichiteerana, zvichitevera kuwedzera kunoshamisa kwemitengo ye45-32 kana Covid vaccine uye purofiti yekurapa yawedzerwa nehutongi hwaTrump husati hwamboitika. Warp Speed” rubatsiro.
Fictitious capital inonyangarika chiito
Asi izvi ndizvo zvaisarudzika, nekuti neUS Federal Reserve yakasimudza mubereko kubva mukupera kwa2021, kukura kwehupfumi kwakadzikira uye kushushikana kwezvikwereti kwakabuda. Nezviwanikwa zvinowana mubereko zvino kubheja kuri nani kwekudyara, iyo Wiltshire Index yezvikamu zvese zvakarongwa zveUS yakadonha 21 muzana muna 2022, uye pakati pemafemu mazana mashanu epamusoro (S&P500) paingova nezana nemakumi matatu nevaviri vakawana uye vamwe vese vakarasikirwa.
Kunze kweTesla, kambani huru yakatevera kutambura nenjodzi huru yeNYSE yaive Zuckerberg's Meta (Facebook), yakaderera ne64 muzana, ichiteverwa nemamwe makambani makuru matatu eWest Coast IT: Advanced Micro Devices (55 muzana), Bezos 'Amazon (50 muzana) uye Nvidia Semiconductors (zvakare 50 muzana). Hukoshi hwevanonyanya kupa zvemukati - Netflix uye Disney - yakadonha ne51 uye 44 muzana, zvichiteerana. Zvikamu zviviri zvikuru zveNYSE, Apple neMicrosoft, zvakadonha 27 uye 29 muzana zvakateerana. Iwo maviri makuru emabhangi emasheya - Bank of America naJP Morgan - vakarasikirwawo ne26 uye 15 muzana yekukosha kwavo, zvichiteerana.
MuAsia, femu imwechete yakakosha mumakore achangopfuura yaive Tencent, yakanyorwa muHong Kong nepamusoro pekutanga-2021 musika capitalization yeUS $916 bhiriyoni. Asi pakasvika Gumiguru 2022, panguva iyo Xi akasarudzwa patsva pamusangano weCommunist Party (zvikakonzera kuti vakawanda vemaridzi vekunze varase migove yeChinese vachipa ruvengo rwake kune yakazvimiririra-Big Tech), mutengo wemusika waTencent wakadzika kusvika kuUS $251 bhiriyoni, makumi manomwe neina. muzana inodonha (kunyangwe yakakurumidza kuwedzera kaviri muukoshi). Kambani yechipiri yakakosha zvikuru yekuAsia, Alibaba (yakanyorwa mbiri muHong Kong neNew York), yakakwira mukupera kwa74 pamadhora mazana masere nemakumi masere nemasere emadhora asi mushure mekuferefetwa nekutyorwa kwemakwikwi nemutemo wevatengi, yakadonha ne2020 muzana kusvika yakaderera yemadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matanhatu emadhora makore maviri. gare gare.
Zvakawanda nekuda kwekutenda kwebofu uko kune vanoisa mari zhinji, zvekuti Blue Chip migove yaigona kukwira kunze kwedutu rekuderera. Mafemu zana epamusoro pamisika yepasi rose akarasikirwa nemadhora matrillioni manomwe nemazana maviri mumigove yemitengo muna 100. Kurasikirwa kwakakura munzvimbo yakasimba yepasirose capitalism, US, inotambira gumi nematanhatu emakambani makumi maviri epamusoro (makambani asiri eUS aive pechipiri. yaimbova Saudi mafuta parastatal Aramco, 7.2th-yakakura Tencent, 14th-akaisa Taiwanese semiconductor mugadziri TSMC; uye Arnault's 15th-akaiswa Louis Vitton, kana LVMH).
Geographically-uneven overvaluations
Iko kuderedzwa kwaifungidzirwa, kupihwa kuwedzeredza kwemusika wemasheya kuchikonzerwa nehurongwa hwemari hwakasununguka, asi nzvimbo isina kuenzana. Mukupera kwa2020, padhuze nepamusoro penguva yevanofungidzira, iyo "Buffett Indicator" - kureva, capitalization yemusika (iyo yakazara kukosha kwemafemu akanyorwa) yakakamurwa neGross Domestic Product - inobatsira kuongorora kuti zvikamu zvemisika yenyika zvinopa masaini ekuti mari yemari yakayerera kupi kana. pachinzvimbo chakamira, kazhinji nekuda kwezvidzoreso zvekuchinjana. Kune akawanda anomalies. Pakutanga kuburikidza nenzvimbo dzechitatu muBuffett Indicator, uye zvechokwadi ma indexes aikurumidza kusimuka mukati mekupera kwa2010s, aive Hong Kong (ine 1777 Buffett Indicator muna Zvita 2020), Iran (508) neSaudi Arabia (345).
Vese vari vatatu vaive nemaitiro akasiyana. Kutanga, iyo Hong Kong Hang Seng index yakabata ese Tencent neAlibaba - makambani maviri makuru eAsia kusvika 2022 - uye nekudaro akakwira mukutanga kwa2018, pamberi pekutanga kweBeijing kusungirirwa paBig Data. Indekisi yacho yakabva yapunzika makumi mashanu nenomwe muzana kusvika pakuderera kwayo kwazvino muna Gumiguru 57. Chechipiri, iyo Saudi Tadawul Stock Exchange yakakwira zvakanyanya nekuda kweInitial Public Offering yeAramco mukupera kwa2022, ichikwira kusvika pakakwirira muna Kubvumbi 2019, mushure mezvo musika wakadonha ne2022 muzana. kusvika pakupera kwa 26. Chechitatu, Tehran Stock Market yakawedzera muna Kurume-Nyamavhuvhu 2022 nekuda kwezvinhu zvitatu: kushambadzira zvishoma kwemabhizinesi ehurumende makumi mana nemapfumbamwe, kushandisa kwehurumende mari dzekunze dzehomwe yehupfumi yekudyara mumusika wemuno, uye. kukwira kwemitengo kunotyisa kwakapinza mari yakasara yemhuri muzvikamu (kuitira kuti isarasikirwa nemari mumabhanga nekuda kwekuderera kwemutengo). Pakazosvika Nyamavhuvhu 2020, iyo Tehran bubble yakasvika pakuputsika, uye mumwedzi mipfumbamwe yakatevera yakadonha ingangoita 49 muzana isati yapora zvishoma.
Misika yechina-kusvika-yechitanhatu inodhura zvakanyanya mukupera kwa2020, sekutsanangurwa kweBuffett Indicator vachishandisa misika yemasheya, yaive South Africa (312), Switzerland (277) uye United States (193). Mushure mekuwedzera kunoshamisa kwa2021 uyezve tsaona 2022, zviyero izvi hazvina kushanduka. KuSouth Africa kwainge kuine nyonga nyonga sezvo huwandu hwemari yenzvimbo yaitsamira pana Tencent, zvichipihwa kuti chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chevaridzi vekambani yekuChina chaive nekuda kwebheji remhanza yevanoisa mari muna 2001 remadhora 35 miriyoni muchiratidzo chaPony Ma. Izvi zvakaita kuti kambani yake - yenguva yerusaruraganda yevachena-simba vezvenhau kambani Naspers - ikwire mumutengo, ichibatanidza ingangoita zvikamu makumi matatu kubva muzana zveJohannesburg Stock Exchange pakakwirira pamberi pa30.
Muchikamu chinotevera pakati pemisika mikuru yemasheya yakasimbiswa zviri nani, misika isina kusimba: Singapore, Sweden, Netherlands, Canada, France, Japan, Australia neSouth Korea.
Pakuyera saizi yemisika yese (kwete iyo Buffett Indicator yehukama), United States yakasvika madhora zviuru makumi mana mukupera kwa40, ichiteverwa neChina pamadhora gumi tiririyoni, Japan neHong Kong inosvika zviuru zvishanu zvemadhora, uyezve misika midiki mumusika. UK, France, Canada, India neSwitzerland.
Misika yemasheya yakanga isiripo. Zvimwe zvokufungidzira zvemari pfuma akasimuka uye akaputsika zvikuru mberi, akadai Bitcoin kukosha, pasi kubva anenge $1 miriyoni imwe neimwe muna November 2021 kusvika $293,000 nekutanga 2023, sezvo yose cryptocurrency kukosha yakawira kubva $3 tiririyoni kusvika $850 bhiriyoni panguva imwe cheteyo (Bitcoin kazhinji anomiririrwa rinenge. 40 muzana yemusika, inoteverwa neEthereum pa18 muzana). Sezvo kupenga kwakasvika kumagumo, imwe yemisika mikuru - FTX, yakavambwa na Sam Bankman-Akakwenenzverwa - yakazarurwa mukupera kwa2022, panguva yekunyadzisa kwepamusoro-soro kubhuroka, sehurongwa hwekubiridzira hwePonzi. (Zvakacherechedzwawo ndezvekuti akange atsigira ruzhinji rwevane mahofisi ebato reDemocratic Party nemadhora makumi mana emamiriyoni emadhora muna 40 mumipiro - kunyanya muma primaries vachipesana nevanoda kukwikwidza - kuitira kuti awane rutsigiro rwemutemo uye nekudzora zviito zvake.)
Huzhinji hwekufungidzira huripo mune aya emanyepo emitengo yemitengo - kutanga kumusoro uyezve kubva kutanga kwa2022 zvichidzika - inogona kuteverwa kune masimba makuru ehupfumi hwemamaneja ebhanga. Kutenda kuQuantitative Easing, kubhengi kubhengi uye mitengo yakaderera yemubereko muna 2009-13 uye 2020-21, mari yekunyepedzera yakawanikwa mumutengo, inopfuura nekuremerwa kwechokwadi kwemitengo yeasset.
Asi hunhu hwemombe hunokunda, uye kutonga pamusoro pekuyerera kwemari mumisika yepasirese yakaramba yakanyura zvakanyanya mumaoko edzimba dzakati wandei dzinotungamira dzekudyara: BlackRock ine $9.6 tiririyoni mukutonga kweasset mukupera kwa2022; Vanguard Group, $8.1 trillion; Kuvimbika, $4.2 tiririyoni; Union Bank yeSwitzerland, $4.4 trillion; State Street, $4.0 tiririyoni; Morgan Stanley, $3.2 trillion; JP Morgan Chase, $ 2.9 trillion; Chikwereti Agricole, $2.9 tiririyoni; Allianz, $2.8 trillion; Capital Group, $ 2.7 trillion; Goldman Sachs, $2.4 trillion nezvimwe zvakadaro. Ivo vekupedzisira vanobatsirwa neasina musoro stock market capitalizations vainyanya ava uye mamwe mainvestigation emasangano.
Kuparara kwaidiwa kwedhora
Kutanga mukupera kwa2021, mabhanga epakati anofanirwawo kupomerwa mhosva yekubata hupfumi chaihwo nehurongwa hwemari hwakasimba kupfuura hwakakodzera. Sachigaro weFed Jerome Powell chinangwa chake chaive chekumisa kukwira kwemitengo kuri kukurumidza kukwira, kunyangwe zvaive zviri pachena kusvika muna 2022 kuti kwainyanya kukosha kwekuwedzera kwemitengo kwaisava kudiwa kwevatengi uye kuwedzera kwemuhoro wevashandi. (Progressives panzvimbo pekupomera simba remitengo yemakambani oligopolies.)
Kukwira kwemitengo kwaimiririra kudzikira kwakananga kwehukoshi hwemari, izvo zvinozorwadzisa vanhu vanotambura vane mari dzavo dzisina gadziriso dzekukwira kwemitengo. Asi nekukwira kwemitengo, ndizvo zvakaitawo zvisungo zvechikwereti - kubhadhara kwezvose zviri zviviri principal uye mhindu - zvinowira mumatemu chaiwo (kune zvimwe zvikwereti izvo zvisina kutengwa pamutengo wakasiyana-siyana, kureva kukwira nemubereko wemusika).
Asi kunyange dai inflation yaibatsira (senzira yekudzikisa mutengo) kune avo vanokwereta vane zvikwereti zvakagadziriswa, dambudziko guru renguva iri mberi raive chikwereti chenyika. Chokwadi, kana Quantitative Easing ikasashandiswa zvakare munguva dzekushushikana kweramangwana kuitira kubvisa dambudziko rezvemari zvakare, chikwereti chakazara chedomino-default chinogona kuitika.
Muna Gumiguru 2022, iyo IMF yaGumiguru 2022 World Economic Outlook yakabvuma kuti kuputika kwepost-Covid tarisiro kwave kuita nzira yayo:
“Maitirwo eupfumi hwenyika yose ari kuderera zvakanyanya uye zvakanyanya kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, uye inflation yakakwira kupfuura yakamboonekwa mumakumi emakore anoverengeka. Dambudziko rekudhura-rekurarama, kuomesa mamiriro emari mumatunhu mazhinji, kupinda kweRussia kuUkraine, uye denda reCovid-19 riri kunetsa zvese zvinorema pamaonero. Kukura kwepasirese kuri kufungidzira kunonoka kubva pa6.0 muzana muna 2021 kusvika pa3.2 muzana muna 2022 uye 2.7 muzana muna 2023.
Nekune rimwe divi, hutungamiriri hwepasi rose hwakanga hwave, panguva yekuparara kwemari yepasi rose muna 2008-09, hwave hwakanaka pakumisikidza uye mamwe maitiro ekugadzirisa dambudziko. Saka kubhadharwa kwechikwereti chedhora nemukwereti mukuru pasi rose, US Treasury, kwainge kuchiri kupihwa mari nyore nevakweretesi vekunze. Chikonzero chiri nyore chekuyerera kwakadaro kunofamba kunyange mumidziyo inodzoserwa yakaderera seUS Treasury Bills, ibasa iro mari yedhora rekuAmerica yakaita senzvimbo yakachengeteka, kubvira muna 1944. Kutaura chokwadi, pakava nechinguvana mukupera kwema1970 pakapinda goridhe. akatora chigaro nekuda kweUS inflation.
Sekutaura kwakaita nyanzvi yezvematongerwo enyika yekuPoland, Richard Westra nezvenguva iyoyo, ne "dollar semari yepasi rose, dambudziko rekukwira kwemitengo yemuUS rakatengeswa pasi rose. Vakwikwidzi vehupfumi vepamberi, kunyanya, vakatanga kutamba nenzira dzekutsiva dhora munzvimbo yaro yeWWII. " Zvisinei nekugona kweTreasury neFederal Reserve kushandisa masimba masimba epasi rose, asi dhora rakaramba rakasimba, kunyangwe, rinoyeuchidza Westra,
"madhora akazadza misika yepasirese pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu apo mitengo yembariro yakanga iri pasi pemitengo yemadhora, zvichiita kuti pave neparadhiso yepasi rose inokwereta dhora, Sachigaro weFederal Reserve wemazuva ano, Paul Volcker, akakwidza mari yemumba yeUS. Mazita emitengo achakurumidza kukwira kusvika pa21 muzana. "
Saizvozvo, pakati pekusagadzikana kwazvino, dhora rakakwira richipesana nedzimwe mari zhinji muna 2022, sezvakangoita muna 2020 na2008. Kana imwe nzira yemari inogona kubuda kubva muboka reBrazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa, sezvinowanzofungidzirwa vatsigiri vane chido, zvicharamba zvichionekwa. Asi nekupa misiyano mikuru yebloc nekusamira zvakanaka kwehupfumi, uye zvakazoitika kune vatungamiriri veBRICS vachivimbisa zvakawanda munzira yekuchinja kwemari yepasi rose asi vachiunza pasina chinhu (kungori diki, rakazara nehuwori World Bank-style New Development Bank), yakazara yakazara. kurwiswa kwesimba redhora kunoratidzika kunge kusingaite. Tarisiro yeimwe nzira kuIMF (iyo $100 bhiriyoni "Contingent Reserve Arrangement"), kana kune akarerekera kuNew York masangano echikwereti, kana kuvimba nehupfumi hweBRICS pamadhora ekutengeserana nedzimwe nyika, hazvina kumboitika.
Zvakadaro, pane zvinotarisirwa kuwedzera kwemubatanidzwa, chirongwa che "BRICS+", pamwe kutanga kwaNyamavhuvhu apo musangano wehutungamiriri uchaitwa muSouth Africa. Pakati pevane gumi nevaviri vangangove nhengo nyowani pane akati wandei ehudzvanyiriri petro-states - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Nigeria neAlgeria, iyo yakahwina rutsigiro rweBeijing neMoscow muna 2022 - inogona kushandura Calculus.
Mushure mezvose, hurongwa hwe "petrodollar" muna 1973 (mafuta emutengo wemadhora uye kunyanya-yemuArab purofiti yakadzokororwa nemuNew York mabhanga) yakapa mari yekuUS simba rakasimba mushure mekunge Richard Nixon abvisa Chibvumirano cheBretton Woods muna 1944 muna 1971. pamadhora mabhiriyoni makumi masere emadhora ezvaive zvikwereti zveUS - kureva, kubhadhara chendi imwe yegoridhe yakachengetwa muFort Knox pamadhora makumi matatu nemashanu ega ega akapihwa nevaridzi vemadhora epasirese - pamwe nekuderera kwekukwira kwemitengo ("stagflation," muchidimbu ichiratidzira mamiriro emusika wevashandi uye masangano akasimba evashandi. panguva iyoyo), akanga akanda hupfumi hweWashington mubvunzo. Volcker's high-interest hutongi hwakanga huri sarudzo yakashandura hupfumi hweUS (nekuda kwekuderera kwehupfumi hwenyika), kudzoreredza dhora rehegemony kwenguva ingangoita 80-35.
Nhasi, kushaya simba kwakawanda muUS-centric economic management iri kuoneka zvakanyanya, kwete zvishoma izvo, zvakare, stagflation. Zvakadaro zvisinei nenhaurirano dzese dzichangoburwa pamusoro pehurongwa hutsva hwemari uye yekubhadhara-hurongwa, basa redhora mu capitalism yenyika rinoramba rakadzama. Mukutanga kwa2023, ingangoita 60 muzana yematura ekunze epasirese akachengetwa nemabhanga epakati aive mumadhora (kubva paavhareji makumi matanhatu neshanu muzana kubva muna 65-2000). Chikamu chedhora chekutengeserana kwekunze chaive chikamu makumi mapfumbamwe kubva muzana, chezvikwereti zvakayambuka 20 muzana, zvezvikwereti zvepasi rose zvikamu makumi mashanu kubva muzana, 90 muzana yekutengeserana invoicing uye yekubhadhara SWIFT 52 muzana (kunyangwe Russia isati yadzingwa muna Kurume 50). Hupfumi hweUS nhasi hunogona kungotora 50 muzana chete yeGDP yepasi rose uye gumi nemaviri muzana yekutengeserana kwenyika, saka kushandiswa kwemadhora nemacapitalist epasi kunopa iyo Fed simba guru.
Uyezve, kana zvasvika kune mari yedhinominesheni yevanosarudzirwa mainvestimenti, zvichiri kuratidza kuti wechipiri mukurusa mumwe investor muUS Treasury mabhiri, China (ine inodarika $900 bhiriyoni mukupera kwa2022, zvishoma kuseri kweJapan $ 1.078 trillion), haafarire kuzunungusa izvo. chikepe panguva ino, zvisinei nekutsiga kweBeijing, zvishoma nezvishoma kutengesa kwemadhora. Mamwe matunhu makuru ega ega achitambira vane mari inodarika mabhiriyoni zana emadhora muUS Treasuries vaive vadyidzani veUS kana vanozvifarira vega mari vasingade kuita zvekutengesa nezvikonzero zvezvematongerwo enyika, kubvisa simba remadhora: United Kingdom ($100 bhiriyoni), Belgium (638 bhiriyoni), Cayman Islands (327 bhiriyoni), Luxembourg (297 bhiriyoni) uye Switzerland (296 bhiriyoni). Iine pakati pe $263 ne $100 bhiriyoni muT-bill holdings, imwe hafu-dozen kazhinji Western-centric hupfumi: Ireland, Brazil, France, Taiwan, Canada, India, Hong Kong, Singapore uye Saudi Arabia.
Powell anoita kunge arikutevera script yekare yekudzoreredza dhora, kunyangwe zvichirwadza sei. Mushure mezvose, muna 1979 iyo Volcker Shock yakanga yakonzera kudzikira kwepasirese uye dambudziko risati ramboitika rechikwereti kudzimba, makambani uye akawanda emari yepakati uye nyika dzine urombo. Mukutanga 2020s, neFed ichishandisa simba rayo kukwidza mubereko wepasi rose, mukana unoramba uripo wekuti kudzoka mukuderera kwepasirese kwaizokonzeresa imwe denderedzwa rezvingangove dambudziko rechikwereti.
Kukura kwehupfumi hwepasi rose kwaitarisirwa muna 2023 nemhiri kwacho kwakadzikira - uyezve kugovaniswa zvisina kuenzana - kupfuura mwero unodiwa kukunda zvikwereti zvinowanikwa muhupfumi hwakawanda. Kunyangwe kuChina, misika yezvivakwa uye vanovaka dzimba vakuru vaive vatanga kuparara panosvika 2022. Nouriel Roubini weYunivhesiti yeNew York, mumwe wevashoma venyanzvi dzezvehupfumi vanofanotaura kuparara kwa2008-09, vakaratidza kushushikana pamusoro pemazinga asati amboonekwa. tsanangudzo kukwereta, pamwe chete neveMadokero
“Zvikwereti zvakazara senge zvikwereti zvisina mari kubva kubhay-as-you-go pension schemes nehurongwa hwekuchengetedza hutano - zvese zvicharamba zvichikura nezera revanhu. Kungotarisa zvikwereti zvakajeka, nhamba dziri kushamisa. Pasi rose, chikwereti chese chevanhu vakazvimiririra uye chehurumende sechikamu cheGDP chakakwira kubva pa200 percent muna 1999 kusvika pa350 percent muna 2021. The reshiyo yava 420 percent muhupfumi hwepamusoro, uye 330 percent kuChina. MuUnited States, i420 muzana, iyo yakakwirira kupfuura mukati moKuderera Kukuru Kwezvemari uye pashure peHondo Yenyika II.”
Iyi "megathreat" (imwe yegumi), yeRoubini, yaive hwaro hwe:
"Kumhara kwakaoma - kudzikira kwakadzika, kwenguva refu - pamusoro pedambudziko remari. Sezvo asset bubbles kuputika, zvikwereti-servicing ratios spike, uye inflation-yakagadziriswa mari inowira mudzimba, makambani, nehurumende, dambudziko rehupfumi uye kuparara kwemari kuchadyidzana. Kutaura chokwadi, upfumi hwepamusoro hunokwereta nemari yahwo hunogona kushandisa kukwira kwemitengo kusingatarisirwi kuderedza ukoshi chaihwo hwechimwe zita rechikwereti chenguva refu. Nehurumende dzisiri kuda kukwidza mitero kana kuderedza mari yekushandisa kuti dzideredze kushomeka kwadzo, kushaikwa kwemari kubhanga repakati kuchaonekwa zvakare senzira yekuramba. "
Anopedzisa Roubini, "Amai vematambudziko ese echikwereti anogona kumisikidzwa, kwete kudzivirirwa."
Kune chikwereti chayo, World Economic Forum inoziva kupokana uku, uye mune yayo itsva Global Risk Report inodonongodza nhevedzano yezvinetswa, kusanganisira zvakawanda zvinoratidza kupokana uku kwehupfumi:
- Asset bubble inoputika: Mitengo yedzimba, mari yekudyara, migove nezvimwe zvinhu zvinowedzera kubviswa kubva kuhupfumi chaihwo, zvichikonzera kudzikira kwakanyanya mukudiwa nemitengo. Inosanganisira, asi haina kugumira ku: cryptocurrencies, mitengo yesimba, mitengo yedzimba, uye misika yemasheya.
- Kupunzika kweindasitiri yakakosha kana cheni yekugovera: Kudonha kweiyo indasitiri yakakosha yepasirese kana cheni yekugovera zvine chekuita nehupfumi hwenyika, misika yezvemari kana nzanga zvinotungamira mukukatyamadzwa kwekupa uye kudiwa kwezvinhu zvakakosha nemasevhisi panguva. global scale. Inosanganisira, asi haina kuganhurirwa kune: simba, chikafu uye zvinokurumidza kufamba zvinhu zvevatengi.
- Matambudziko eChikwereti: Mari dzemakambani kana dzeveruzhinji dzinonetsekana kuunganidza zvikwereti, zvichikonzera kubhuroka kwevanhu vakawanda kana kushaikwa kwemari, matambudziko emari kana kukanganisa uye matambudziko makuru ezvikwereti.
- Kutadza kudzikamisa mitengo trajectories: Kutadza kudzora huwandu hwemutengo wezvinhu nesevhisi, kusanganisira zvigadzirwa. Kusanganisira kuwedzera kusingatarisike (inflation) kana kuderera (deflation) yemitengo.
- Kuwanda kwezviitwa zveupfumi zvisiri pamutemo: kuwandisa kwepasi rose kwezviitwa zveupfumi zvisiri pamutemo uye mhirizhonga inogona kukanganisa kusimukira kwehupfumi nekukura nekuda kwehutsotsi hwakarongwa kana zviitiko zvisiri pamutemo zvemabhizinesi. Inosanganisira, asi haina kuganhurirwa kune: kuyerera kwemari kusiri pamutemo (semuenzaniso kunzvenga mutero); uye kutengeserana nekutengesa zvisiri pamutemo (sekunyepera, kutengeswa kwevanhu, kutengeserana kwemhuka dzesango).
- Kuderera kwehupfumi kwenguva refu: Pedyo-zero kana kunonoka kukura kwepasirese kunogara kwemakore akawanda zvichitungamira kunguva yekumira; kana chibvumirano chepasi rose (kuderera kana kuora mwoyo).
Dambudziko, zvisinei, nderekuti izvi ndizvo chete zvoupfumi matambudziko ari patafura. Zvakanyanya kusimba zvakatipoteredza, zvemagariro, geopolitical uye hutano megathreats, zvakare. Uye sezvicharatidzwa nerondedzero inotevera, kusakwanisa kwazvino kwemultilateralism - kunyangwe maimperiist / subimperialist masanganiswa akadai seG20 - kugadzirisa iyo polycrisis hakuna kuoneka sekunopedza simba zvakanyanya, kweanoda kusvika makumi masere apfuura.
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