Standard&Poors (S&P) yakapa South Africa maawa mashoma ekutarisira neChishanu chapfuura, mushure mekunge huruva kubva kumhepo yezvematongerwo enyika yesvondo rapfuura yagadzikana. Sangano iri rakadzikisira mari dzehurumende dzinoshandiswa pamari yemuno (Rand) kunyange hazvo ranga richiramba nyaya yaityiwa pazvibatiso zvepasi rose. Yakanga iri nguva yekuti vakuru vemabhizimisi nevemapato ezvematongerwo enyika vatariswe, asi mukutura befu havasi kutarisa kure zvakakwana.
Panguva yekuderera kwemamiriro ezvehupfumi pamwe nekushaikwa kwemabasa kuri kuramba kuchikwira, vaongorori vemuno nevekunze vangangove vakakanganisa kuona mutungamiri wenyika, VaJacob Zuma, semunhu apotsa ashandiswa. Bato riri kutonga reAfrican National Congress (ANC) rakashandura nzira dzakaedzwa dzekuverengera pamwe nekuvavharisa kuti dzichengetedze zvakare VaZuma nemusi weMuvhuro wapfuura. Musangano wekupera kwesvondo rapfuura weANC National Executive Committee (NEC) yanga yafunga pfungwa yekuti anofanirwa kusiya chigaro, pamwe achitsiviwa nemutevedzeri wake, bhirionea (uye aimbove mushandi wemubatanidzwa) Cyril Ramaphosa, pamberi peyakarongwa Zvita 2017 ANC. vhoti yehutungamiriri. (Mumwe ari kukwikwidza zvikuru kumutungamiri weANC ndiaimbova mudzimai waZuma, sachigaro weAfrican Union ari kubuda, Nkosozana Dlamini-Zuma, pamwe nemubati wehomwe weANC, Zweli Mkhize, angangove mumiriri wekubvumirana.)
Chikamu chimwe muzvitatu chevamiriri veNEC vakatsigira kubviswa kwaVaZuma, asi VaZuma vakaramba vachitonga. Kugona kwebato 'kuzviruramisa' kunoratidzika kunge kwapera, paine vatungamiriri vazhinji 'vatorwa' nehurongwa hwakanyatsogadzirwa hwakavakirwa pahama nhatu dzekuIndia, maGupta. Mutevedzeri weGurukota rezvemari, VaMcebesi Jonas, vakapa humbowo hwehurongwa uhu munaKurume wapfuura, nenzira yekupihwa kwavakaitwa neveGupta kuti vave gurukota rezvemari (pamwe chete ne$43 miriyoni yekukurudzira) kana vakaita zvido zvavo mumakondirakiti makuru ekutenga zvinhu.
Munyori mukuru weANC VaGwede Mantashe zvakaziviswa, “Tichabata nemufananidzo wakakura. Isu tiri kuramba kuita hudiki pakubata nenyaya iyi nekuti kutyisidzira uku kwakakura pane chiitiko chimwe chete ichi.” Muna May, zvisinei, iye rakaguma ongororo yeGupta 'state capture', ichiti 'haina zvibereko' zvichifungidzirwa kuti hapana humbowo hwakakwana. Zvisinei, mwedzi wapera, Mudziviriri weHurumende akazvimirira ari kubuda, Thuli Madonsela, akaburitsa gwaro rinopfupisa humbowo hwehumbowo hweGupta, izvo zvakamanikidza mutungamiri wehurumende yemagetsi kusiya chigaro achinyadziswa.
Svondo rapfuura rakatonyanya kunetsa, ko nekuedza kwemukati meANC kubvisa VaZuma. Pasina kupokana, mapato anopikisa kubva pakati-kurudyi (Democratic Alliance) nekuruboshwe (Economic Freedom Fighters) akatambira chinyararire kuenderera mberi kwekutonga kwaZuma nekuti mhedzisiro yakaipa kwazvo ingadai yakatsiva Ramaphosa. Zvisinei nebasa raakaita mukupondwa kwemuMarikana, achanyanya kutsvinyira kunyomba mumwedzi iri kutevera.
Zvakare zvakayerwa kungonyara chete junk
Asi vatengesi vakuru vanga vachitarisira kuti VaZuma vachadonha, uye kuti kukwira kwaRamaphosa kuchapedza kutyisidzira kwebasa kune vezvematongerwo enyika vavanofarira veANC, Gurukota rezvemari, Pravin Gordhan. Nekuda kwesimba rakawanda rinoshandiswa nemasangano anoona nezvezvikwereti, VaGordhan vanoratidzika kunge vasina kugadzirira kuchinja kwedare remakurukota uko VaZuma vari kuda kutyora. Masangano aya anoramba aine simba iri nekuti nepo Fitch, Moody's neS&P vakapa tsinhiro yehutongi hwaZuma mumashoko avo achangoburwa, havana kudzikisira South Africa kuita junk status. Chikwapuro chinoramba chakamira pamusoro peSouth Africa, chakamirira maresheni aChikumi anotevera.
Kuregererwa uku kwakasiya vanhu vese veSouth Africa vanoziva nezvehupfumi chenjera kupemberera. Nekudaro, yeChishanu chapfuura statement neS&P - kazhinji mutongi akasimba kupfuura Fitch naMoody's - akashaya pfungwa uye chivimbo, kunze kweanofungidzirika neo-liberal nostrum kuderedza kushomeka kwebhajeti uye kuderedza simba shoma revashandi zvakanyanya. Nekune rimwe divi, kusagona kweS&P kunogona kubvumira maSouth Africa kupokana zvirinani simba rinosanganisira remasangano ezviyero.
Nokuti ivava masangano ane ngozi avo vakakanganisa - semuenzaniso sezvo kuparara kwemari yepasirese muna 2008 kwakaungana, zvichipa AAA magiredhi ekudyara kuLehman Brothers neAIG nguva pfupi vasati vapunzika, pamwe naEnron mazuva mana isati yadonha muna 2001 - inogona kuve njodzi kune vanoisa mari nehupfumi hwakazara. .
Hazvishamisi kuti musangano wevatungamiri veBrazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) weGoa muna Gumiguru wakabvumirana explore "kumisikidza yakazvimirira BRICS Rating Agency zvichibva pamisimboti yakanangana nemusika, kuitira kuti iwedzere kusimbisa hutongi hwepasirese." Zvisineyi, nekuona kusamira zvakanaka kwe “misimboti ine chekuita nemusika” muhurongwa hwehupfumi hwenyika hwakashata, uye nekupihwa hutongi hwevakuru vezvehupfumi muBRICS, zano iri rinoratidzika serinozvikunda sekuchinja kweBRICS kunonzi 'hutongi' hwe. International Monetary Fund muna Zvita wapfuura. Zvadaro, kunze kweSouth Africa (iyo yakarasikirwa ne21 muzana yevhoti), ina BRICS yakawedzera IMF migove yekuvhota pamutengo weNigeria neVenezuela (imwe neimwe yakarasikirwa -41%), nedzimwe nyika dzakawanda dzine urombo kubva kuAfrica neLatin America.
Svondo rino mubvunzo mukuru wekufungisisa ndewekuti sei, tichitarisa zvematongerwo enyika uye kusamira zvakanaka kwehupfumi hwenyika, South Africa isina kudzikiswa kusvika pakuita tsvina? S&P yakadzikisa muyero wenjodzi yezvibatiso zvenzvimbo, asi kwete changamire (yekunze) giredhi rechikwereti. Zvikonzero zvikuru zvakapa S&P kutaura:
“Maonero akaitwa muSouth Africa anoratidza maonero atinoita musika mukuru uye unoshanda wemari yemuno inotambira mari yakatarwa, pamwe nekuzvipira kwevakuru mukubatanidza mari zvishoma nezvishoma. Tinoona zvakare kuti masangano emuSouth Africa akaita sematare edzimhosva, anoramba akasimba ukuwo South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB) ikaramba iine gwara remari rakazvimirira.”
Translation:
- “musika mukuru uye unoshanda wemuno wemuno wakagadziriswa mari” = mari dzemudyandigere neyeinishuwarenzi dzinoramba dzichitenga mabhondi ehurumende nekuti zvidzoreso zvekuchinjana zvakasara zvinomanikidza 75% yemari yakadaro kuti igare mukati meSA uye kugadzira kudiwa kukuru kwezvibatiso zvehurumende;
- "Chitsidzo chevakuru pakugadzirisa mari zvishoma nezvishoma" = Gordhan akavimbisa kuti kushomeka kwebhajeti kuchadonha kubva pa3.4% yegore rino kusvika pa2.5% panosvika 2019, kunyangwe izvi zvinoda kudimburwa mumwongo wekare. tokenistic rubatsiro rwemagariro evanhu. Zvichaguma nekuwedzera kwazvino kune 17 miriyoni vanogamuchira anowira pasi pe inflation yakatarisana nevarombo;
- “Masangano emuSouth Africa, akaita sematare edzimhosva, anoramba akasimba” = matare haangopedzi mhirizhonga yaVaZuma chete, asi chakakosha zvikuru kuti vanotsigirawo zvechitendero kodzero dzemidziyo, iyo muSouth Africa iri pachinhanho makumi maviri neina.th yakachengeteka zvikuru kubva munyika zana nemakumi mana surveyed neDavos-based World Economic Forum; uye
- “SARB inochengetedza gwara remari rakazvimirira” = zvisinei nechikwereti chakanyanya kukwirisa chevatengi (inoda kusvika hafu yevakwereti vari kushanda munyika vari 'chikwereti chakakanganiswa,' maererano neNational Credit Regulator, yatadza kubhadhara katatu), SARB yakakwidza mubereko katanhatu kubva muna 2014, kusvika pakati pepamusoro-soro pasi rose.
Chimwe chikonzero S&P ine tarisiro inofungidzirwa kuti "kushomeka kwekutengeserana kuri kudzikira pamutengo wakaderera wemafuta (uyo unoumba chikamu chimwe muzvishanu chezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuSouth Africa)," asi kutaura zvazviri, kushomeka kwekutengeserana kwakangoputika. South Africa yaive nekutengeserana bhiriyoni imwe nemazana mana emadhora masaridzwa muna Chivabvu, asi izvi zvakava $330 miriyoni dhefisiti muna October. Zvichakadaro mumwedzi wapfuura, mutengo wemafuta wakakwira ne21%, kubva pamadhora makumi mana nematatu kusvika pamadhora makumi mashanu neshanu padhiramu, uye neChishanu chapfuura, mubatanidzwa weOPEC uchangoburwa kucheka zvinobuda. Chinangwa kuisundidzira kupfuura $60 mumavhiki anouya. (Uye randi rakasimba rakaonekwa mugore ra2016 harina kudzikamisa kukwira uku: mumwedzi wapfuura, rand rakadonha kubva pa13.2/$ kusvika pa13.8/$; nhamba yaro yekupedzisira yaive R6.3/$ makore mashanu apfuura.)
Kuburitsa runyararo
Haisi chete iyo S&P's rudimentary yekutarisa kubva pachinangwa, kunyarara mukutaura kwayo kuri kukanganisawo. Kana tikafunga nezvematambudziko anogona kukonzera dambudziko rezvemari pano, S&P yakashoropodza zvinoshamisa pamusoro pechikwereti chekunze kwenyika. Iyo yekupedzisira SARB Quarterly Bulletin zvinyorwa chikwereti chepamusoro-soro (sereshiyo yeGDP) munhoroondo yeSA yemazuvano: 43% (yakakwirira kudarika PW Botha's default level ye40% muna 1985).
Uyewo S&P haitauri kuyerera kwemari kusiri pamutemo (kwanga kuri Inofungidzirwa neGlobal Financial Kutendeseka pamadhora makumi maviri emabhiriyoni pagore); kana chikamu chemari yekubhadhara dhefisiti nekuda kwepurofiti uye dividend kubuda (kazhinji inodarika $10 bn/gore) zvichitevera kuwandisa kwekuchinjana kwekudzora kusunungurwa; kana mareti emuberero epamusoro-soro epasi rose emuSouth Africa pamabhondi ehurumende yemakore gumi, pa10% (yechitatu pakati pemakumi matanhatu ehupfumi hukuru, chete. dzikisa kupfuura mitengo muBrazil neTurkey iyo yose inobhadhara 11%). Kubhadharisa kwemakambani pakubvisa mari kunze kwenyika - uko kunonzi neTreasury Kenneth Brown kunoda vateresi madhora bhiriyoni gumi nenomwe pagore - hazvibvumidze kutaurwa.
Kuchikwereti cheS&P, zvisinei, sangano iri rakapa vatsoropodzi vebhizinesi hombe tsigiro diki nekuona "kuda kwechikamu chekambani kunonoka kuisa mari yakazvimirira, kunyangwe mibairo yakakwira uye nenzvimbo hombe dzemari." Mune chiratidzo chakapesana, zvakadaro, S&P zvakare akapa nyika inotungamira disinvestor, Anglo American, an yakagadziridzwa Rating Chishanu (ese masangano ezviyero akange adzikisa Anglo kuita junk chinzvimbo muna Kukadzi). S&P haisi kuda kudzikisa mafemu ekubvisa mari, uye kudzoreredza kunotungamirwa nenyika - senge muna 1960s South Korea - haisi pamakadhi. Saka mukuburitswa kwenhau uku kushoropodza kwemakambani edu makuru' 'capital strike' kwaingove kushoma. zvakataurwa nepepanhau rega rega (Business Report).
Zvichiri kundirwadza kudaro Gupta uye (Stellenbosch-based Afrikaner tycoon) Rupert mhuri, masangano matatu anoyera acharamba achikwezva kupomerwa kwe "state capture!" maererano nehurongwa hweveruzhinji uhu mhuri yekunze yeneoliberal inotaridzwawo nekuzvifarira kwenguva pfupi, nguva nenguva kutarisa kwakakomba uye kuparadzwa kwehupfumi hwenyika. Mhinduro ine musoro chete inofambira mberi delinking kubva kumasekete ezvemari yenyika umo masangano aya anounganidza simba rawo risina kufanira.
Patrick Bond anodzidzisa hupfumi hwezvematongerwo enyika uye ecology yezvematongerwo enyika paWits School of Governance: [email inodzivirirwa]
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