Kunobva: The Analysis
Mhoroi, ndini Paul Jay. Kugamuchirwa kuAnalysis.news. Mumasekondi mashoma, tichabatanidzwa naPatrick Bond; tichataura nezve iri kuuya COP26 [2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference] uye kuti tekinoroji ichamhanya sei mukati uye kuchengetedza nhasi kana kwete. Ingodzoka munguva pfupi. Ndokumbira usakanganwe bhatani rekupa, bhatani rekunyorera, bhatani rekugovera, mabhatani ese.
Hurumende nemakambani pasi rose vanonyatsoziva nezvenjodzi yedambudziko remamiriro ekunze. Havasi kushayiwa ruzivo kana dzidzo; zvese zviri kunze uko. Asi, sezvakataurwa neMunyori Mukuru weSangano Romubatanidzwa Wenyika Dzepasi Pose, hutungamiriri hwavo huri kure nezvinodiwa kudzivirira kurova imwe-poinzi-shanu madhigirii ekudziya mukati memakore gumi nemashanu uye pedyo nemadhigirii matatu. Iye akati, ndinofunga kuti nhamba yake yaive mbiri-poinzi-nomwe kana mbiri-poinzi-pfumbamwe pakupera kwezana ramakore. Uye kubva pane zvandinoziva uye kubva pane zviri kutaurwa nesaenzi nezvemamiriro ekunze, ndiyo fungidziro inochengetedza yezvingangouya. Mune zvese zvingangoitika, zvirinani, tiri munzira yekurova madhigirii maviri, pamwe nekukurumidza se15.
Kana iwe ukatarisa mhando yezviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze zvakanyanya zvinoitika pamadhigirii maviri, izvo zvinofanirwa kunge zvichitonhora. Hapana chirevo chinodiwa. Sezvandakataura, chero vanhu vane ruzivo vanoziva zvese izvi, kusanganisira vezvematongerwo enyika nevehupfumi. Saka vanogona sei kuramba vachinzvenga uchokwadi hwengozi yacho? Ehe, vanogona kufunga kuti vakapfuma zvakakwana kuti varege kukanganiswa, asi ndinofunga zvakanyanya. Vanotenda kuti tekinoroji ichauya ichichengetedza zuva uye kuti kupera kwemafuta ezvicherwa kunogona kumirira kana kuitwa zvishoma nezvishoma kupfuura zviri kushevedzwa nemasainzi emamiriro ekunze, kana kuti zvimwe kusatombodaro.
Tekinoroji yavari kunyanya kuvimba nayo ndeyekutora kabhoni kubva mumhepo uye inogonesa kugadzirwa kwehydrogen, iyo inofanirwa kuve yakachena simba. Zvakanaka, kana zvichishanda, ini ndiri zvese. Muchokwadi, ngatirambei tichipisa marasha uye chero. Tichangosuka magasi egreenhouse kure. Dambudziko nderekuti, sekutaura kwandinogona kutaura, kuverenga kwemunhu ari kunze uko; hapana humbowo hwekuti tekinoroji iyi inoshanda, zvirinani kwete pachiyero chinodiwa. Ehe, pane imwe kabhoni kubatwa uye sequestration inoita kunge inoshanda, asi hapana pese pese pesero yaungatora kugadzirisa zviri kuuya. Saka vakuru ava vari kuramba here? Kana kuti zvimwe ndiri.
Iye zvino akabatana nesu kuti tikurukure iri kuuya COP26 ndiPatrick Bond. Patrick inyanzvi mune zvematongerwo enyika uye purofesa paYunivhesiti yeJohannesburg Dhipatimendi reSociology. Haasi sainzi wezvemamiriro ekunze, asi semuongorori wezvematongerwo enyika, mumwe wevanhu vane ruzivo rwepamusoro vandinoziva nezvesainzi yemamiriro ekunze. Akanyora Zvematongerwo enyika eZvemamiriro ekunze, zvichibva pakukokwa kweSouth Africa kwe2011 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change Summit, uye akanyora zvakawanda pamusoro pezvematongerwo enyika edambudziko remamiriro ekunze. Uye anobatana nesu zvino kubva kuJohannesburg; tinotenda nekubatana nesu, Patrick.
Patrick Bond
Zvakanaka kudzoka neAnalysis. Ndinokutendai nekundiwana.
Paul Jay
Saka pamwe ndini ndakazvishaya nekuti zviri pachena, vepamusoro havavhunduke zvakanyanya nemamiriro ezvinhu. Ehe, [Joe] Biden akange aine rhetoric iri nani kupfuura manejimendi eDemocratic Party anga ave nawo munguva yakapfuura. Uye John Kerry arikumhanya achitaura rudzi rwezvinhu sezvaungatarisira kubva kuna John Kerry. Asi kunyangwe Biden akapfuudza hurongwa hwake pasina Joe Manchin achikwenya mutsipa wake. Uye isu tine uyu mufananidzo wakanaka kumusoro pawebhusaiti izvozvi waJoe Manchin anotaridzika kunge nyanzvi yekurwa nemaoko akatenderedza mutsipa waBiden.
Asi izvo zvave kutodarika izvo hurongwa hweBiden hwaive nekuti chirongwa cheBiden chainyanya kutsamira pakubata kabhoni uye nyukireya-yakagadzirwa, pamwe kwete yakawanda hydrogen muchirongwa cheBiden, zvirinani izvo zvandakaverenga. Zvisinei, ndinofungidzira kuti unobvumirana neni. Kana ikashanda, kana ichigona kuitwa pachiyero, saka rarama hupenyu hurefu hwe capitalism. Wakachengeta zuva. Asi pane zvandiri kurasikirwa nazvo pano?
Patrick Bond
Zvakanaka, kungoti mari inodyidzana yetekinoroji yatinofanirawo kukonzeresa. Uye saka kune mafambiro anonakidza, mafambiro eMarudzi, uye vatsoropodzi vesainzi kubva mukati menharaunda yehunyanzvi vari kubvunza mibvunzo yakanaka kwazvo pamusoro peizvi zvese. Ngativadaidzei mhinduro dzenhema nekuti ivo vakarongedzerwa, pamwe chete nemisika, inobvisa. Tekinoroji nemisika zvinowanzoiswa pamwechete mumhando yakafanana- tinoidaidza kuti ecological modernization philosophy, sevaponesi, senzira dzekuisa mukati mehurongwa hwekunze kana kuona mafomu epamberi anobvumira shanduko yemukati yehurongwa.
Ikozvino paive neimwe yeavo vakaedzwa kuita kuti system ishande yega nekugadzirisa kusakwana kwayo. Uye iro raive gomba reozone raikura nekuda kwema chlorofluorocarbons akange achiuya. Uye muMontreal muna 1987, gadziriso iyoyo yehunyanzvi, yaive yekurambidza maCFC ekare [Chlorofluorocarbons] uye kuatsiva nemaHCFC [Hydrochlorofluorocarbons], saka ndezvefiriji.
Paul Jay
Saka ndiani ari kuramba apa? Ndiri mukuramba tekinoroji, kana ivo vari kungoramba chinhu chose?
Patrick Bond
Eya, Paul, pfungwa yekuti tekinoroji inogona kugadzirisa matambudziko dzimwe nguva ndeyechokwadi. Uye pave paine matambudziko anotyisa sedambudziko reAIDS [Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome], takaona vekwedu muSouth Africa nekondinendi yese, kumaodzanyemba, U.S, nedzimwe nzvimbo vachitendeukira kuruzivo rwemichina. Kumishonga yemaAntiretroviral. Uye isu tatendeukira kuhunyanzvi hwekudzivirira COVID. Saka hatisi kupikisa tekinoroji.
Mubvunzo ndewokuti, inoshamwaridzana here? Tinogona here kuita kuti ive yakajairika toipa mukana uri nani, uye inoshanda here? Mubvunzo mukuru watichakurukura izvozvi, asi zvakare, ndezvipi mhedzisiro? Ndeapi mamwe emitengo, semuenzaniso, hupfumi hwakasvibira hungangove hwakavakirwa pazvicherwa zvePasi zvisingawanzo kana maseru ehydrogen anogona kubva kunzvimbo dzinokwikwidzwa dzemigodhi uko Palladium neRhodium neboka rePlatinamu simbi vatove pasi pekupokana kwakanyanya? Kana munyaya yependi inoratidzira zvakanyanya. Idzi dzinobva kujecha riri pamhenderekedzo yegungwa yedu muSouth Africa. Vamwe vezvakanakisa ilmenite; iyo titanium dioxide yavanoshandisa mupendi inopenya zvikuru yatinoda kupenda pamusoro pematenga edzimba, zvichida mumigwagwa kumisa kupisa Zvitsuwa mumaguta.
Izvi zvakare zvinokwikwidzwa muchikamu munzvimbo mbiri huru muSouth Africa. Kupondwa kwakawanda, kusanganisira kunyange CEO weRio Tinto subsidiary yemuno.
Saka hondo dzakasimba dzakawanda dziri kuitika. Zvakare mibvunzo mikuru yekuti, semuenzaniso, kana ukadyara sango rekugadzira, matanda emiti kuitira sequester uye kudhirowa kabhoni. Unobva watanga zvimwe zvinhu zvakawanda zvinoparadza zvipenyu. Mvura ichanyura. Iwe uchave nerenje rakasvibira uko zvisikwa zvipenyu zvinoparadzwa. Uye zvino, hongu, iwe unotema sango iro, kana rinodzika mumoto wesango, uye kabhoni yese inoburitswa zvakare.
Aya ndiwo mamwe e, ngatitii, enhema mhinduro maficha ekugadzirisa tekinoroji. Uye wobva waisa pamwechete tekinoroji mumisika. Iwe une ideology inodaidzwa kuti ecological modernization, uye ndeyekuronga nzira yekutonga nekushandisa tekinoroji inogadzirisa uye misika semidziyo. Kana iwe uri technocrat, iwe uri muBill naMelinda Gates Foundation, semuenzaniso, kana United Nations, iyo Intergovernmental Panel pamusoro peKuchinja Kwemamiriro ekunze. Uye muzviitiko zvakawanda, vari kutsigira izvi nekuvapa mari pasina hanya nemagariro avo. Kana, ngatiti, kururamisira kwemamiriro ekunze.
Uye ndipo pandinofunga kuti pane gakava rinoshamisa rinofanira kuitwa pakati pehuzivi huviri hwakasiyana. Imwe ingori bhizinesi semazuva ese. Ngatinyure imwe kabhoni iri kumusoro uko, tsvaga nzira dzekugadzira dzekuiteedzera. Kune rimwe divi, isu tinokwanisa kuramba tichienda kubhizinesi semazuva ese uye kuita purofiti kubva mumazana emadhora emadhora zana. Mumwe wekuCanada, Mark Carney, uyo ari Gavhuna weBhange reEngland, ari kuedza chaizvo kuwana capitalism kuunza tekinoroji uye kuunza mumisika nemari yekuita kuti zvese zvishande.
Kune rumwe rutivi uye kune rumwe rutivi vangave varatidziri vari kusunda kururamisira. Zvizvarwa zvechivanhu, vanhukadzi, vechidiki. Uye ivo vari kutaura chaizvo kucheka kushandiswa. Cheka izvi zvinobuda, asi zvimwe nekuda kwevapfumi munyika, vanhu vari kuchamhembe kwepasirese, seni muJohannesburg, isu tinofanirwa kugadzirisa mashandisiro edu akawandisa uye dambudziko rekuwedzeredza muhupfumi hwenyika. Idzi ndidzo nzvimbo dzakafara dzegakava rakanakisa. Uye zvinosuruvarisa, muGlasgow, tichanzwa rimwe divi, riri sirivheri bullet tech inogadzirisa uye mashiripiti emisika.
Paul Jay
Ngatikurukurei izvi. Saka ngatikanganwei kururamisira kwemamiriro ekunze, chikamu chekururamisira kwechinguva zvakadaro. Ngatikanganwei kuti mineral extraction inouya nedzimwe njodzi uye dzimwe nyaya dzawasimudza. Ngatitii izvo kukuvara kwechibatiso, kukuvara kwakakosha nekuti nzanga yakarongeka yevanhu iri panjodzi, saka tinofanira kuzviita zvakadaro. Kubva pane zvandiri kuverenga nekuwana, kusave chero rudzi rwesainzi mune izvi, pane zvakanyanya kunaka, kuti dai paive nekudyara kukuru, kukuru kwekudyara mukutora kabhoni uye kutorwa, izvo zvandisingakwanise kutaura nemazvo, zvinogona kurova. 20% yezvinodiwa, pamwe.
Pasina zvakakomba zvakanyanya kubuda kunze kwemafuta efossil, haugone kubata ne80%, uye pamwe iyo 20% haina kutomboitika. Asi ngativapeiwo 20% mukati menguva yatinayo. Ndiri kukanganisa here pamusoro peizvi maererano nekururamisira kwemaindasitiri ekuwedzera kana kuti kwete? Izvo hazvisati zvichingoshanda mune chero rudzi rwekukurumidzira yatinayo.
Patrick Bond
Hongu, ndinofunga chikonzero ichi chinoshanda, uye kune vamwe vatyairi vendege vari kuburitswa mune mamwe mafossil mafuta emakambani madenderedzwa, ndeyekuti kana iwe uchikwanisa kutora kabhoni iyi, unoitora, uye unoichengeta. Chaizvoizvo, iyo yekuchengetera inowanzo kupomba oiri yakawanda uye gasi kubva kune dzimwe nzvimbo uko kune zvakasara zvakachengetwa zvinoda iyo yakawedzera kudzvanywa. Saka isu tave kutotarisa kushungurudzwa kweiyo pfungwa. Asi zvakare, munyika yakaita seSouth Africa, magetsi angu mazhinji ari mulaptop iyi anobva kusimba rinopfurwa nemarasha, angangoita 85%.
Pane chido chekuda kuongorora izvi, maererano nevakuru vedu vanoda kuchengetedza magetsi emagetsi emarasha achishanda kwenguva yakareba sezvinobvira, uye havana kukwanisa. Uye chimwe chinhu pairi ndechekuti inoda rakawanda simba rakawanda kungoita sequester. Simba rinosvika 20% rinopinda mukutora kabhoni nekuchengetera kungokwesha nekuchenesa nzvimbo dzinoburitsa CO2[Carbon dioxide] uyezve kuwana kumwe kwakagadzikana kuisa pasi pevhu. Kana taona huwandu hwakakura hwe CO2 pasi pevhu muLake muCameroon, semuenzaniso, uye vanobuda, vanoputika.
Bva, miuyo yacho ingwavaira. Zviuru zvakati kuti zvakafa muchiitiko ichocho. Ini ndinofunga mupfungwa, isu hatina chokwadi nezve tekinoroji uye kuchengetedzeka kwayo. Uye izvo zvinonyatsoenda kune akasiyana mamwe geoengineering enhema mhinduro. Imwe iri kuyedzwa muno muSouth Africa ndeyekuenda munzvimbo yakatenderedza Antarctic, ingori kumahombekombe kweSouth Africa, kunodonhedza masimbi mugungwa, ayo angaite sequester, anodonhedza CO2 nekuti yaizogadzira algae maruva. Uye sezvavaitora CO2, ivo vaizowedzera kurema, uye vaizonyura pasi. Ndiyo imwe dzidziso iri kuedzwa.
Chimwe chatisina kuona pano zvakanyanya, asi chakayedzwa muEurope, uye nzvimbo shoma, kuisa aerosol, kazhinji SO2 [Sulfur Dioxide] mumhepo sechidzitiro chekudzivirira zuva kuti risarove pasi se. zvakaoma sezvazvakaita munzvimbo zhinji dzepasi. Saka rudzi rwenhema mhinduro yekungoisa imwe mhando yeamburera kumusoro uko. Imwe ingave iyo nhanho iyo inoteedzera zvirimwa, CO2, kureva, kuburikidza nephotosynthesis iwe unodhirowa pa CO2, uye zvinomera zvinogadzira okisijeni. Izvozvo zvinogona kuvandudzwa ne geoengineering?
Uye saka pamwe inonyanya kushuvira uye yakasarudzika yeaya geoengineering mhinduro dzenhema kuve nezvinomera zvakagadziridzwa genetic izvo zvisingagone kungoita inches mashoma asi chaizvo yadhi yakadzika. Uye muSan Diego, paSalk Institute, nyanzvi yebiologist ine tarenda inodaidzwa kuti Joanne Chory ari kunyatsobudirira mune vamwe vatyairi vekutanga mukuita kuti CO2 iyi idzorwe. Asi ipapo iwe unofanirwa kufukidza machuru makuru emaruwa edu kuti udaro. Uye mubvunzo wekuti ivhu nezvikafu zvaro zvichanyatsoita zvakanaka here pamwero mukuru, asi ndiwo mumwe mubvunzo mukuru, une ngozi.
Saizvozvowo, nekugadzira-
Paul Jay
Nei kune ngozi?
Patrick Bond
Zvakanaka, zvine njodzi nekuti isu hatingoziva kuti yakakura sei geoengineering. Saka tine misangano yakasiyana-siyana yeUnited Nations inotarisana neizvi, uye ivo, zvechokwadi, vaizozvitora nekuda kwekumanikidzwa kubva kumasayendisiti anonyanya kunetseka pamusoro pemhando iyi yeFrankenstein kana Dr. Strangelove nzira. Vaizotora danho rekuchengetedza kuti vadzivise izvi. Saka kune magungano ezvipenyu zvakasiyana-siyana akanyatsotaura kuti hatidi kuona mamwe geoengineering. Isu hatizivi kuti chii chichabuda mune izvi.
Paul Jay
Vanhu vazhinji vandinoziva avo vakanyanya kuoma nezvemamiriro ekunze vanotsigira zvakanyanya izvo zvandinofungidzira imhando ye geoengineering, neimwe nzira, kunze kwekunge yakasikwa, inova kurima patsva uye kushandisa ivhu nemhuka poop uye. vakadaro. Iyoyo haisi imwe yemhinduro here?
Patrick Bond
Oo, zvachose. Ini ndaizoenda zvakanyanya nehutongi hwechikafu uye hutongi hwekurima huri kunze kweiyo yekambani modhi, iyo inosanganisira yakawanda genetic shanduko yandisingazodaidza geoengineering. Ini ndingati agroecology. Masayendisiti evhu akatidzidzisa chaizvo kuti kudya kuri muvhu ndicho chinhu chakakosha. Uye sekushandisa kwatakaita mishonga yezvipembenene nefetereza, kunyanya mafetireza ane carbon-intensive. Uye sezvo takava nemapurazi emafekitari aya anga achiparadza mhuka nehupenyu hwezvirimwa. Kugona kuita izvozvo kunofanira kunyatsosimbiswa, kunyanya kutonga kwezvokudya, zvichipiwa kusaruramisira mugadziriro yezvokudya. Kudiwa kwemasystem echikafu kuitira kuti tisatakure chikafu madaro mahombe aya. Panogona kunge paine chinhu chimwe chinobatsira cheUNFCCC [[United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] maitiro.
Izvo chaizvo zviri muEU, UK, uye US ndingazvidaidza kuti imperialist protectionist instinct, uye inodaidzwa kuti kabhoni muganhu wekugadzirisa mashandiro, ayo anotarisa kusimba kwekabhoni yezvinhu zviri kuuya, kunyanya hupfumi hwekuMadokero. nyika. Uye zvavachaita ndezvekutaura, zvakanaka, pamwe tinofanira kunge tichidzivirira maindasitiri edu. Uye iyi ndiyo imwe itsva gimmick yemamiriro ekunze mutero unozobvumira rudzi rwedu rwevaTrump-rudzi rwevachena vanoshanda-kirasi vhoti kuti vati, zvakanaka, zvakanaka, mabasa edu ari kuchengetedzwa, uye mamiriro ekunze ndicho chikonzero isu tichikwanisa kuisa mutero pa. a carbon border kugadzirisa mechanism.
Dambudziko riripo nderekuti richakuvadza vashandi vepasirese yechitatu, uye maindasitiri munyika yechitatu achange anonoka kana mitero iyi yekugara kure-kure kana yakakwira kabhoni senge isu pano yakakomba. Uye ndinofunga kururamisira chete kwaizobvumira kuti kungava kuti kana mamiriro ekunze chikwereti kuti Northern nyika uye BRICS nyika, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. Vatatu veavo vari pakati pevana vepamusoro vezvenhoroondo emitters, uye zvavanogona kuita sezvavanoisa pamakabhoni ekugadzirisa bhodha nzira sezvo ivo CBAM dzimwe nyika.
Zvakanaka, ivo vanofanirwa kunge vachitora mari kubva ipapo uye vachibhadhara chikwereti chavo chemamiriro ekunze. Uye iyo ingave imwe yemakakatanwa nezve kana isu tichigona rejig misika. Iyo UNFCCC haisati iripo nekuti vanga vachimanikidzwa kubva kumakambani makuru kuti vasakanganise, toti, kabhoni mutero wezano. Ivo vangangove vari banker-run kabhoni mutero kana yekutengesa chirongwa. Kutengeserana kwekuburitsa kweEurope, California, zvikamu zveCanada, uye iko zvino kuChina nedzimwe nzvimbo shoma, uye zvakanyanya, mutero wekabhoni usiri kunyanya kugadzira, rudzi rwakapinda muna 2018 [Emmanuel] Macron, uye muna 2019. , [Lenín] Moreno muEcuador mudambudziko rakadai neFrench Yellow Vests uye kumukirana kweEcuador. Irwo rudzi rwemutero wekabhoni, unowanzoita maitiro, chimwe chinhu chatinofanira kudzivirira.
Asi ini ndinofunga kugadzira mutero wekugadzirisa kuti ingani kabhoni inobatanidzwa mukutengeserana, kureba kutakura, kutakura nendege uyezve kuyedza kutenga iyo mukati. Iyo ingave imwe yenzira dzinobatsira, uye ini ndingati ecological modernization maitiro sehunyanzvi hwatinoda. aigona kushamwaridzana anogona kuita basa. Asi kutonga kwemamiriro ekunze kuchiri kunetsa. Hatikwanise kuzvisiya nekuti mubvunzo wakakosha. Tinowanepi lithiamu iyo Elon Musk, murume akapfuma munyika yose kubva pano muJohannesburg uye neTesla yake uye kuedza kwake kuva nemabhatiri makuru, zvakanaka, ari kunyatsochera mukati? Akatsigira coup muBolivia muna 2019, uye ndiyo mhando yekuti, ngatitii, kukuvara kwekunze kunoenda nekugadzirisa tech kwatinofanira kugadzirisa. Iyo yegirini haidrojeni ine platinamu uye masimbi eboka pano ichave yakakwikwidzwa uye iyo ilmenite.
Uye ndinofunga pasi rose, isu tiri kudzidza nezve njodzi yehupfumi hwakasvibira hune mhando nyowani dzeextravism hardwired mukati mayo, uko kuchave nekupokana nekupokana uye zvakakomba zvakanyanya magariro-ecological uye ehupfumi mutengo.
Paul Jay
Saka kana iwe ukatora kabhoni kubatwa sechidimbu chayo uye ichiita kunge ndicho chidimbu chikuru chezvinofungwa nemaBidens enyika ino, uye sainzi inoita kunge isingaitsigire semhinduro, zvirinani sezvandinotaura, mukati nguva yakatarwa inodiwa. Zvadaro ngatiende kune hydrogen. Ko haidrojeni ndiyo imwe nzira chaiyo, kunyangwe ichida kukakavara, tsvina, kuburitsa kunokuvadza? Asi kunyange zvakadaro, zvinogoneka here pachiyero, uye regai nditi, zvinokwanisika here kuigadzira nesimba rinogara riripo pachiyero chinodiwa? Nekuti kunyangwe ichishanda kuchinjira kuhydrogen, zvinokwanisika here kuigadzira nenzira yakachena mukati menguva inodiwa?
Patrick Bond
Iri ndiro dambudziko. Semuyenzaniso, Sasol, inova kambani yaimbova yehurumende yakavambwa munguva yerusaruraganda kuyedza kudzivirira zvirango zvemafuta zvakatemerwa hurumende yerusarura muSouth Africa. Uye saka Sasol inotambira nzvimbo yekutanga yekuburitsa CO2 munyika, guta rinonzi Secunda, kwavanosvina marasha negasi kugadzira peturu yemvura. Uye zvino vari kuyedza kuve vakasvibira, uye vakatamisa zvinhu zvavo zvakawanda kumahombekombe kuenda kuUS sezvavanozvipa kuLake Charles, uko Louisiana, ivo chikamu chikuru cheCancer Alley ine mukororo mukuru.
Asi ndinofunga chinhu chikuru pamusoro pavo, vadzoka zvino ndokuti, tinoda kuva vakasvibira. Uye mukuru wavo, Fleetwood Grobler, akati tichaisa zvivakwa zvakakura zvezuva zvine solar yakadzika uye kugadzira iyi hydrogen reaction tichishandisa yedu yemuno maseru ehydrogen, iyo platinamu boka simbi. Uye saka zvinomutsa mibvunzo miviri. Ko, ndepapi pavaizoda kudzityaira? Izvi zvinoshanda here? Uye mhinduro ndeyerori nemabhazi. Saka kune mamwe emabasa anorema echikamu chezvifambiso uko, tingadai takafambisa yakawanda yemigwagwa iyi, kunyanya kutakura makona kubva mumigwagwa mikuru kupinda muchitima uye kushandisa solar nemhepo kumagetsi zvitima, izvo zvingave zvakanaka.
Asi sechipiri-chakanakisa, ndinofunga kuisa hydrogen masero mumabhazi edu uye mumarori edu angave anonakidza mutyairi. Uye wobva wabvunza, zvinogona kuitwa pamwero wakafara here? Uyezve, sezvandangoita, mubvunzo kuti kambani yakazvimirira ndiyo nzira chaiyo yekuyedza uye kuunza zvinhu pachiyero. Agenda yavo, yekuwana inenge 30% purofiti muyero mumari yakaoma. Zvichada kuwanda kwekudzvanya zvivakwa zvedu pano kuti tiwane rudzi urwu rwepurofiti inodiwa nevavanodyara mari.
Asi chinonyanya kukosha, chii chinyorwa chavo? Ivo, ndinofunga, vari kuyedza kuita kunge vari kusvibira nekuti ichi chikamu cheicho chinonzi net-zero zano reSasol nemamwe makambani makuru emafuta emafuta nemamwe makambani emaindasitiri anoda kuti tichawana mhinduro yetekinoroji. uye misika kuburikidza nekugadzirisa uye kutengesa emissions, kunyepedzera kuti mambure edu panosvika 2050 ndeye zero. Uye ndipo parikuitika kuwanda kwekutarisa kwemamiriro ekunze uye nesainzi yakanaka kutarisa kuri kuitika. Kubvunza, isu hatidi chero emissions. Uye iyo net-zero haisi zero chaizvo. Uye isu tinoda chaizvo kuzvipira kwechokwadi kune zero emissions.
Kana iwe ukatarisa, semuenzaniso, munzira iyo China iri kutanga kuburitsa izvi, iwe unowanzo kuwana nemakambani avo epakati magadzirirwo emitemo yavo yepakati, vanogona kuzviita nekukurumidza uye pamwero, hongu. Uye ini handisati ndamboona izvozvo zvichiitika nenzira inoshamisa. Somuenzaniso, nenzira yavakatanga nayo kuchinja kukuru kuzuva uye kumhepo. Saka ini ndinokahadzika zvishoma, ndichiziva kambani iyi zvishoma kuti ndivimbe chero chinhu chinobuda mumuromo meMukuru wavo.
Paul Jay
Saka sezvawakataura pakutanga, hazvina kufanana newe kana ini tinopesana nemhinduro dzetekinoroji; chaizvoizvo, kure nazvo. Ndinofunga zvingave zvakanaka kana paine mhinduro yetekinoroji. Ndinoziva kumashure panguva ye [George W.] Bush manejimendi, pakanga paine hurukuro yekuenda kumwedzi uye kuwana hydrogen, uye kana vaikwanisa kuita izvo, zvakanaka, zvinozoshamisa. Iyo inzira yakachena yekuiwana uye kugadzirisa dambudziko. Kunyange zvakadaro, vanoita sevakarega kutaura nezvazvo. Handisati ndanzwa thesis iyi nguva pfupi yadarika. Asi chinonyanya kukosha pano ndechekuti kunyangwe uye yakakura kana, ndichazvitaura zvakare, pamwe tekinoroji iyi inobata ne15%, 20%.
Uye ndiko kuve, ndinofunga, kubva pane zvandinoziva, tarisiro yakashata kuti inogona kubata ne15% kana 20% yedambudziko. Asi chero iyo geoengineering chidimbu cheizvi, uye zvirinani kubva pane zvandinoziva, ini handirambidze zvese zvinogoneka geoengineering mhinduro, izvo zvandinoziva dzimwe dzeshamwari dzangu dzinoita. Asi ini zvirokwazvo ndiri kufarira kuongorora, kushandisa imwe mari kutarisa. Uye mamwe masayendisiti emamiriro ekunze andinofunga kuti vatungamiriri chaivo venzvimbo maererano neIPCC[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] mishumo uye vakati tiri munzira yekurova madhigirii maviri panosvika 2050.
Vanotiwo pachave nechikamu chegeoengineering chemhinduro. Asi kunyangwe uchibvumirana nazvo kana usingabvumirani nazvo, masayendisiti ese andinoziva anoti unofanira kubvisa mafuta efossil, uye unofanira kuzviita nekukasira. Uye izvo hazvisi kuitika. Uye sezvandakataura pakutanga, vepamusoro vanoziva zvose izvi. Hatisi kutaura chero chinhu chiri kuzivisa chero munhu anoda kuziviswa haatomboziva.
Saka chii chiri kuitika mumusoro mavo. Uye zvinoratidzika kwandiri kuti zviri kuitika mumisoro yavo ndizvo zvakataurwa nenyanzvi yezvehupfumi, ndinotenda kuti zita rake ndi [William] Nordhaus, uye akahwina Mubairo weNobel. Anoti zvakanaka kudzikamisa tembiricha panopera zana rino pamadhigirii mana. Vanotenda, ivo vapfumi, vakuru venyika, vanogona kurarama munyika ine madhigirii mana. Uye kana vanhu vekuSouthern Hemisphere vakagumburwa, ndiregererei, zvakanaka, vatovepo. Saka ndeipi vamwe vanhu varombo muSouthern hemisphere. Vapfumi havana basa nevarombo muSouthern hemisphere ikozvino. Nei vachifanira kuva nehanya navo pakupera kwezana rino remakore?
Uye ini ndinofunga maererano neshoko iro vanhu vanofanirwa kuwana, hakusi kushomeka kweruzivo pano. Hazvirevi kuti vakuru vanofanira kudzidziswa, uye haisi nhengo dzose dzevakuru, zvakare. Ndingati kune vamwe vanotowana dambudziko uye vane imwe nhanho yekuziva munharaunda, asi ruzhinji, kuverenga kwakatwasuka. Ini, vana vangu, mhuri yangu, hupfumi hwangu huchaita zvakanaka munyika yemadhigirii mana. Uye izvo zvinotipa nguva yekugadzirisa tekinoroji. Ndiri wrong here apa?
Patrick Bond
Kwete, wakarurama. Uye isu takaona zvimwe zvinokatyamadza zviitiko zverudzi rwezano rekuchengetedza munhu uye makaro. Isu takazviona neiyo yekudzivirira imperialism, umo, toti, maCanada akaraira zvakapetwa kashanu huwandu hwevagari, nepo Africa ichiri 4%. Chishuwo chekubatirira kukodzero dzepfuma yehungwaru iyo Angela Merkel, aimbove Chancellor weGerman, naBoris Johnson vakaratidza dzidziso yakakwana muWorld Trade Organisation munhaurirano idzodzo. Kana kuti nzira iyo vapfumi vakapfuma zvakanyanya panguva yeCOVID uye zvese zvedu kuedza kusimudzira kuvaka kumashure zvirinani, imwe ine musoro uye pamwe yepasirese system yemari yehutano kana hutano hwehutano kana mutual aid masisitimu kana rubatsiro kuona kuti vanhu vane zvakanaka. shanda.
Kunze kwedzimwe nyika shoma uko mafambiro anga akasimba zvakakwana kuti awane mamwe ezvaakawana, kazhinji, rudzi urwu rwenyaya ndeyeElon Musk's uye Jeff Bezos 'inokwira muhupfumi hwavo uye kugona kwavo kuvhara uye kuita sezvaunotaura, kuzvifunga ivo chete, kuenda kumwedzi, pamwe vanoda nyika B kana vachifunga kuti zvinogoneka. Asi ndinofunga kuti dambudziko guru nderekuti tichawana here mafambiro edu kuti ashande pamwe chete? Uye chimwe chezvinhu zvakakosha ndechekuti macapitalist audza vashandi vavo kuti dambudziko remamiriro ekunze richava dambudziko kwavari nekuda kweshanduko kune decarbonized masisitimu emagetsi nekutakura, ekurima, masisitimu ekugadzira, kuraswa, kunyangwe kushandiswa, izvo. zvichava zvakaipa kuvashandi.
Uye isu zviripachena tinofanirwa kutaura kune vashandi, panogona kuve neimwe nzira pamusoro payo. Tinogona kuita basa-rakapfuma, shanduko chete umo mabasa erutsigiro nemabasa ekuchengeta, kubatsirana kunopinda mukutarisira pasi, kwete chete kumhuri dzedu nenharaunda dzedu. Uye ini ndinofunga ndicho chinhu chakakosha chakasiiwa kunze kweUNFCCC nekuti idanho repamusoro uye harina kusanganisa mapindiro akasimba kubva kubato revashandi. Saizvozvowo, dzimwe nzvimbo dzekusarongeka kwevanhu munharaunda dzatanga tichiona uye tichitaura kuUS uye neLatin America yese pane kurwisa kurwisa masisitimu makuru kana mapaipi.
Vechidiki, kunyanya zvizvarwa zvinotevera vakati kuchizvarwa chedu, muri kutibata nekusaremekedza zvachose, chinova chokwadi. Sezvawakataura, ndezvechokwadi nezve kugona kweboka rakanyanya kuburitsa hutsi, inova yepamusoro 10% pasi rose uye kunyanya vepamusoro 0.1% avo vari vega kujecha. Havasi kufunga nezvezvizvarwa zvinotevera, handizvo here? Gender ndiyo imwe nzvimbo yakaoma, pamwe nenhangemutange North-South, umo United Nations yanga isina kusimba zvakanyanya, pamwe ichipa imwe tokenistic rutsigiro. Asi ndipo pakauya bato reCJ [Climate Justice] kwemakore mazhinji kubva mukupera kwema1990 ndokuti, isu tiri matunhu ane zvigadziriso zvematambudziko vasingadi kuve paWestern materialist nzira yekushandisa. Icho chikamu chedambudziko kuseri kwemazinga epamusoro ekushandiswa kwemunhu kuchamhembe.
Tinoda kuve neimwe nzira yekuita zvinhu, uye izwi iri rakashomeka nekuda kwesimba. Kazhinji zvinonzi mazwi matatu akasviba muUNFCCC, anoisa chivharo pane chero chinhu chine chekuita nekururamisira. Aya mazwi matatu iSeneti yeUnited States nekuti zvinoreva kuti chero chinhu chatinoedza kuti chigadziriswe nemukuru wenhoroondo emitter chichaitwa vetoed nacho, kana ari makumi mashanu kana makumi mashanu nemaviri, zvichienderana neWest Virginia kana Arizona Senator, chero chiyero ichocho, chingori. zvinoreva kuti vanofarirwa naJohn Kerry kana Joe Biden, venguva refu maSeneta eUS havana hushingi kana kuda kwezvematongerwo enyika kuti zvipfuure.
Uye ini ndinofunga padanho repasi munharaunda, isu hatina kukwana kunyadziswa munharaunda kweavo maSeneta eUS uye evakuru zvakanyanya munyika idzi, kusanganisira South Africa. Uye ndiro basa redu. Uye rimwe rematambudziko nderekuti UNFCCC icharamba ichichengeta chero kuvimbika uye ichipa tariro kune dzimwe nyika kuti, zvakanaka, havasi ivo vepamusoro here vachaita chimwe chinhu muGlasgow? Vaizozviita muCairo gore rinouya uye nzvimbo diki yekutandarira padyo neCairo yeCOP27?
Iyi mibvunzo yandinofunga kuti Greta Thunberg akapa mhinduro yakanakisa kumwedzi wapfuura, inova blah, blah, blah. Izvi ndizvo zvese zvatiri kuwana, kana kuti James Hansen, nyanzvi yezvemamiriro ekunze. Paakabvunzwa nezveParis Climate Accord, akataura shoko rimwe chete, kuongorora kwesayenzi; zviri bhobho. Akashandisa mamwe maviri: chitsotsi, chenhema. Uye ini ndinofunga kuti delegitimization yezviri kuitwa nevakuru vane tariro yakawandisa mune tekinoroji. Nenzira, ivo havasi kutaura zvakanyanya nezvemisika, uye chikonzero chiri pachena ndechekuti misika inobhadhara, mafuta uye gasi uye marasha, uye zvichatonyanya kuipa sezvo nguva yechando inopinda kuchamhembe. nekukwira kuri kuita mitengo kuno kuSouth Africa, patiri kuedza kumisa migodhi yemarasha, mutengo wekutengesa kunze wakabva kubva pamadhora makumi mana, $40 ndofunga pazasi chaipo muna Kubvumbi 38, kusvika pamadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matatu munguva pfupi yapfuura.
Saka tiri kunyatsotarisa kudzoka kwemarasha. Ndiyo ngozi chaiyo, inova capitalism haisi yekuzvimisira kugadzirisa dambudziko. Iri kuita kuti zvinyanye nekukurudzira kubviswa kwemafuta efossil. Uye ndinofunga kuti ndiro dambudziko. Kunyangwe vevakuru vachienderera mberi nehunyanzvi uhu gadzirisa fungidziro uye misika misika, inotova haywire uye kabhoni misika inotsamira pamisika yemari, iyo inotsamira pakurerutsira kwehuwandu hwekuputira hupfumi hwemari kupfuura kukosha kwayo chaiko kuti isu tive nekuparara nenzira yatakaita. yakaita muEuropean Union emissions yekutengesa chirongwa muna Chikunguru 2008 kubva pa € 35 zvichidzika kusvika pakupedzisira € 8, uyezve kudzika kusvika ku € 3, uyezve muna Kubvumbi 2020, tsaona dzakafanana dzinoenderana zvakanyanya nemabhubhu muhurongwa hwemari hwenyika.
Uye isu tine bhamburu rakaipisisa munhoroondo yepasirese richiri kuvaka iko zvino nekurerutsa kwehuwandu. Uye izvo zvinoreva, ndinofunga, Paul, mumwe wemibvunzo mauto ekutonga kwemamiriro ekunze pasirese mune yavo blockadia modes mune akasiyana madiki marongero, nevechidiki vane kutsakatika kwehupanduki, vane mhirizhonga kwazvo, chiito chakananga kune vepamusoro. Tese tiri kubvunza, ko Glasgow ichave saiti iyo isu isu vanotsoropodza vevakuru ava vachawedzera kukurumidza kana senge mushure meParis, vachabira nyika kuti, oh, zvakanaka, ikozvino chibvumirano chave kushanda, uye ndinofunga kuti ndiwo mubvunzo wedu mukuru kwemavhiki mashoma anotevera sezvo Glasgow inotanga.
Paul Jay
Ndinofunga kuti chimwe chezvinhu zvinofanirwa kuitwa ndechekuti panofanirwa kuve nekukurudzira kukuru à la sangano rekodzero dzevanhu, asi kunyanya muNyika umo maRepublicans akasimba, uko kune mafuta akawanda efossil. Uye handireve kuti kunyanya boka revana vachena vemumaguta vanofanirwa kuenda kupro-Trump States, nekuti mune imwe neimwe yeidzi pro-Trump States, kune vanhu vazhinji vari kutoronga, vanowana mubvunzo wemamiriro ekunze, vakagadzirira uye vanoda uye vanoedza nepavanogona napo kutaura nevavakidzani vavo.
Uye vari kuronga ipapo. Asi havana zvekushandisa. Uye Democratic Party, ivo vanotarisa dunhu reCongress kana chero nhangemutange, uye vanoti, tinogona kuihwina here kana kuti kwete? Uye kana vasingafungi kuti vanogona kuihwina, havapi chishuvo chinoitika munhangemutange iyoyo. Saka havapi mari yemumiriri. Hapana chavanoita kubatsira mari kuronga pakati pesarudzo. Kana paine vanopa mari kunze uko, vangave nheyo kana vamwe, tarisisa mari yevanosimudzira mamiriro ekunze vanogara mumatunhu aya, vanogona kutaura nevavakidzani vavo uye vanogona kunyatso kuronga nekubatsira vanhu kudzidziswa maitiro ekuita. ronga uye sanganisa izvo nemeseji yekuti shanduko inoratidzika sei.
Ndinoramba ndichitaura kakawanda mubvunzurudzo dzemamiriro ekunze andiri kuita, hazvisi kundipfuura nekuti ndinowana kuti sei Biden asiri kutarisa nezvekuchinja, asi imhosva kuti havasi. Nekuti kana ukabatanidza zviwanikwa zvekuronga uye kuita sarudzo mune idzi pro-Trump fossil fuel States, chero kubva kuTexas kuenda kuPennsylvania, unozvipa zita, sanganisa izvo nevimbiso yekuti hapana mushandi wemafuta emafuta zvakananga kana kunyangwe vanhu vakawana mari yavo nenzira isina kunanga kuburikidza. mafuta efosi acharasikirwa nemari; vachawana rubatsiro.
Iwe unobatanidza iyo meseji neiyo mhando yekuronga kwenzvimbo. Inogona kubatsira, ndinofunga, kushandura zvematongerwo enyika kusvika pamwero mukuru wedzimwe dzeMatunhu aya. Uye ndinoziva kuti kune marudzi ese enhau dzetsika, asi ini ndanga ndiri mundege nguva pfupi yadarika ndichibhururuka kubva- ndanga ndichibvunzurudza Daniel Ellsberg, uye ndaibhururuka kubva kuBerkeley kuenda kuLA Uye ndakagara padivi pemurume uyu uyo, zvinoitika, ari anti-vaxxer, uye ini ndakagara padivi pake chaipo. Asi zvakadaro, ane pro-Trump pane zvese kunze kwemamiriro ekunze. Anoti, kwete, ndinowana mamiriro ekunze. Anogara muCalifornia. Anoona zviri kuitika. Uye ini chaizvo ndinofunga kuti nyaya yemamiriro ekunze inogona kunge iri chidimbu chiri panjodzi mukati mepfungwa uye kuzivikanwa kwemauto epro-Trump. Saka ndinofunga kuti ichi chinhu chinofanirwa kunge chiri musanganiswa wekuronga nekukurukurirana, izvo zvinofanirwa kuitwa nekuchimbidza.
Patrick Bond
Ndinofunga kuti wakarurama, uye kana tikakwanisa kutarisa, toti, California, apo Gavin Newsom akanzwa zvishoma zvekumanikidzwa, asi zvisati zvakwana nokuti, zvechokwadi, mupikisi wake akanga ari kurudyi musarudzo yekuyeuka. Asi rudzi rwekumanikidza kuri kupisa sango, kusanaya kwemvura, mamiriro akashata muCalifornia anomiririra apo [Gavin Christopher] Newsom akaramba achipa marezinesi ekumahombekombe. Uye ichi ndicho chishamiso chikuru chekuti kunyangwe mune zvingaite sekuti ndiyo yakanyanya kufambira mberi uye inofambira mberi yekungoita shanduko uye rubatsiro kune solar nemhepo, iwe uchine kupindwa muropa nevamwe vevakuru vemasimba ikoko kune echinyakare fossil mafuta zvikamu, izvo vakanyanya kutsigira Trump, asiwo maDemocrats.
Uye ndinofunga kuti ndicho chikonzero nei iyi nzvimbo yesarudzo yakaoma kwazvo kugadzirisa nyaya iyi, uye isu tichafanirwa kuramba tiri mumigwagwa. Asi kuva nevatyairi vendege vacharatidza vashandi kumativi ese aya deindustrializing uye mhando dzeMcJob mhando nzvimbo seWest Virginia, kuti iwe unogona kubva mumigodhi yemarasha uchienda kune chimwe chinhu chakanyanya kugadzira uye chine hutano, kudzorera mapaipi eLouisiana mune chimwe chinhu icho panzvimbo kusvipa kabhoni chingava chimwe chinhu chingava nzira yekubvisa. Mhando dzese dzesarudzo dziriko muSouth Africa.
Mamiriyoni Climate Mabasa kabhuku kanga kari kutenderera kweanopfuura makore gumi kuyedza kushanda, toti, vashandi vesimbi kuti vatenderere misoro yavo, kwete kungogadzira mota dzemhando yepamusoro dzekabhoni pamusika wekunze, asi zvifambiso zveveruzhinji kana kubva pakunyungudutswa uye kupinda mune chimwe chinhu chakanyanya. kugadzira nehunyanzvi hwavo hwakaiswa munzvimbo dzeindasitiri. Saka aya ndiwo mamwe ematambudziko makuru. Uye kana tikasaita izvo kuti tive nevashandi vemunharaunda, murume kana mukadzi, Vechivanhu uye kunyanya vechidiki vachiuya pamwe nechirongwa chezvakatipoteredza, imhosva yedu.
Zvakaitika. Kuchinja kukuru kwakaitika. Uye ndinofunga kunyadziswa munharaunda uko, semuenzaniso, kwakaenda neBlack lives Matter paConfederate statues mumaguta akaita seRichmond, Virginia, zvaireva kuti shanduko inoshamisa yakaitika mukuziva uye mune zvematongerwo enyika. Uye izvi zvinondipa tariro, sezvakaita shanduko kuma1980 pamusoro pemakambani aiita purofiti muno muSouth Africa yerusaruraganda. Kamwe kamwe divestment yakauya. Saka zvinokurudzira. Somuenzaniso, Paul, kunyange homwe yeHarvard University endowment fund, akakwanisa kuita chisarudzo ichocho chokuparadza nguva pfupi yapfuura nedzvinyiriro yakakwana inobva kumabhunu akavhenekerwa eUnited States.
Saka ndiko kunyadziswa kwevanhu. Maririyoni gumi nemana emadhora emari yabviswa kubva kumafuta ezvicherwa. Zviri kufamba. Asi hongu, isu tinofanirwa kuita kuti ifambe nekukurumidza. Uye ini ndinofunga zvakare, mubvunzo unobuda mumusangano weGlasgow ndewekuti, vevakuru vane chero kutenga pakutaura, tisiye isu. Tine zano, kana isu tinofanirwa kutora baton tonyatso famba nesimba rakawanda kurwisa kuvuza uku? Ini ndinofunga zvichave zvakanyanya zvekupedzisira nekuti ini handioni chero nzira iyo matambudziko makuru muGlasgow, ayo anosanganisira, nenzira, kumanikidza makambani kusiya mafuta avo echikafu pasi pevhu uye vazvizivise zvisingatsvikirwe kabhoni stranded assets uye kubata. nemari yemamiriro ekunze, kwete yekuita purofiti nevanofarira veMark Carneys, avo vanongoda kusanganisa mari yeruzhinji neyepachivande uye kuita mwero wakakwira wekudzoka kana mibairo muUS ichikwira, asi ichiri yakaderera. kushamwari dzake dzemari.
Uye ini ndinofunga ndiyo ichave nzvimbo huru yekurwira pano, ingave kumaodzanyemba kwasvika, asi iyo pfungwa yaiwanzo furatirwa, kuti kudzoreredzwa kwemamiriro ekunze kunofanirwa uye kuti mari yemamiriro ekunze inokanganisa mabhiriyoni zana emadhora pagore akavimbiswa naHillary Clinton. t inogamuchirika muchimiro chayo, zvikwereti zvemitengo yakakwira kana mamiriro kana nzira idzo makambani akazvimirira anogona kupinda uye kuita aya marudzi e venture capital type purofiti.
Paul Jay
Saka isu ticharamba tichitaura naPatrick muchikamu chechipiri. Saka, ikozvino, uku ndiko kupera kwechikamu chekutanga. Ndokumbira usakanganwe kupa uye kunyoresa uye kusaina pane iyo email runyorwa, uye isu tichave tichidhinda chikamu chechipiri zuva rinotevera kana maviri mushure mekunge taburitsa izvi, izvo zvese zvinenge zvangove ipapo. Tinotenda nekubatana nesu, Patrick.
Patrick Bond
Ndatenda.
Paul Jay
Tinokutendai nekubatana nesu paAnalysis.news.
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