Kushanya kuchangobva kuitika kweInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde kuPretoria (pakati pezvimbo muGhana neAngola) hazvinzwisisike. Kusiyana nechikumbiro chevatori venhau veIMF - "Madame Lagarde vachaita misangano nevakuru, pamwe nemisangano yakadzama nebazi rakazvimirira, veruzhinji, vezvikoro, vatungamiriri vechikadzi, uyezve vezvenhau" - hapana ruzivo rwakakwana. pano, pasina zviitiko zveveruzhinji zvakarongwa.
Hurukuro yakavhurika, yakajeka yeruzhinji nezve nhoroondo inozvidemba yeIMF uye hurongwa hwazvino hunodiwa zvakanyanya, mumamiriro ezvinhu apo vezvematongerwo enyika vashoma nevakuru vakuru vari kunetsekana kwenguva pfupi kuti vadzore zvinonzi "state capture" uye kudzosa mari yakabiwa kumuteresi. Kubvisa makore gumi ekupambwa kwevaimbove Mutungamiri Jacob Zuma nehumambo hweGupta (hama nhatu dzekune dzimwe nyika pamwe nemazana evakasungirirwa) harisi basa diki.
Saka pamwe nekusagadzikana kuti Lagarde achasangana nemumwe wevatungamiriri vakuru mushure meZuma/Gupta, Gurukota rezvemari, Tito Mboweni, uyo akatumira kaviri (muna 2013 na2016) nezvenyaya yehuori hwaLagarde muFrance. Akawanikwa aine mhosva ye "kusaita hanya" yekupa $430 miriyoni kune tycoon - Adidas muvambi Bernard Tapie - uyo akapa kune yake Conservative Party paakanga ari gurukota rezvemari (muna 2017 akamanikidzwa kudzosera nyika yeFrance).
Kudzorera huwori zvechokwadi kuri mumhepo yePretoria. Mwedzi miviri yadarika, VaMboweni vakatsiva VaNhlanhla Nene, avo vakasiya basa vachinyadziswa nekunyepa kwavakaita misangano yavakaita neGupta muchivande. Asi Mboweni pachake ari kuronga chibvumirano chekubvisa mari muchivande here, sezvakaitika muna Zvita 1993 apo IMF yakapa chikwereti chine mukurumbira wakashata chemadhora mazana masere nemakumi mashanu emamiriyoni emadhora - "Faustian Pact" (maererano neaimbova Gurukota rezvehungwaru Ronnie Kasrils) yakazara nevimbiso yeWashington Consensus-kumutungamiri ari kubuda FW. de Klerk, kuitira "kuisa chivimbo chezvemari chepasi rose" muhurumende iri kuuya yaMandela?
Mushure mekushoropodzwa "zvisina maturo" kweSouth Africa nemasangano matatu ane simba kwazvo (kunyangwe ari fungidziro) mumwedzi gumi nemisere yadarika, Mutungamiri Cyril Ramaphosa vakaedza nesimba kudzoreredza kuvimba kwavo. Zvakadaro, nekambani huru yezvemagetsi eEskom yave kuedza kukanda imwe bhiriyoni yemadhora manomwe muchikwereti kuHomwe yenyika iri kushushikana zvakanyanya, Ramaphosa anoda here kudzorerwa mari kubva kuBretton Woods Institutions?
Chokwadi, chakanyanya kukosha, chikwereti cheEskom chekunze chakonzera nyonga nyonga, sezvakaitika muna Ndira paine "tsamba yakamirira yekutadza kubhadhara kubva kuWorld Bank" iyo "inogona kuunza kurangarirwa kwechikwereti cheEskom chemabhiriyoni makumi maviri nemashanu," sezvakataurwa naCarol Paton. Zuva reBusiness? (Musangano wechimbichimbi waRamaphosa nevakuru veBhange muDavos zuva raitevera waizorodza kwechinguva.)
Kushanya kwaLagarde kwakajeka kunopesana nerwendo rweMutungamiriri weWorld Bank, Jim Yong Kim, pakati pekupisa kweGlobal Citizen inorwisa hurombo kune vechidiki vanosvika zviuru makumi mapfumbamwe munhandare yeSoweto: "Ndinokuudza, haugone kuvimba nemunhu anopfuura makumi matatu kuti usarudze ramangwana rako!”
Kim akasanganawo naRamaphosa kuti vakurukure, iye tweeted, kuronga maguta uye hutsanana (pamwe pacho paizoda zvikwereti zvebhangi zveU.S.). Akadzidzisawo kuWits University Chikoro cheGovernance nezvekudyara kwevanhu, pane imwe nguva achishora mumwe aimbove kuruboshwe, mutevedzeri wake, Vice Chancellor Adam Habib, nekuva "mudzidzi weTrotsky."
Zvikwereti kuSouth Africa kubva kuIMF neWorld Bank zvinonyatsodiwa here? Nekune rimwe divi, vatungamiri vavo vari pano mushure memusangano waChikunguru weBrazil-Russia-India-China-SA Johannesburg, uyo wakasimudzira zvakare tarisiro yehurongwa hwekuvandudza hupfumi hwenyika hweBRICS.
Semuenzaniso, zvisinei nekunyunyuta kwehasha kwevanorwira kodzero dzenharaunda pahofisi yavo yeAfrica Regional Center, BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) yakakurumidza kuzivisa zvikwereti kumasangano matatu epasi. Imwe yeidzi, $180 miriyoni yeEskom, yanga “yakamira” kubva muna 2016 nekuda kwepfungwa dzechipiri dzaMukuru Brian Molefe: aipikisa kubatana kwechikwereti chemagetsi emagetsi ekunze kugedhi reEskom (pachinzvimbo, Molefe aida kutora chikwereti chenyukireya, izvo Mboweni — panguva iyoyo aive director weNDB — zvaakange atsigira pachena muna 2015, ari kuRussia kumusangano weBRICS wegore iroro.
Zvimwe zvikwereti zvakaenda kuna Siyabonga Gama weTransnet (akadzingwa basa nekuda kwehuwori hune chekuita neGupta masvondo mashoma akatevera) nemadhora mazana maviri emamiriyoni ekuwedzera nzvimbo yekuDurban port-petrochemical complex — chirongwa chave kuoma nechando nekuda kwechitsotsi chekubiridzira kwekambani yekuItaly ine mukurumbira wakashata. Guptas)—neBanga reBudiriro reSouthern Africa rekukweretesa madhora mazana matatu emamiriyoni emadhora kumasevhisi (tichifunga kuti kune vane chikwereti vasara, vachikwanisa kubhadhara mibereko yakakwirisa kuti ikwanise kukweretesa chikwereti chemari yakaoma kune zvivakwa zvemuno).
Akatsanangura muratidziri weEarthlife Africa, Makoma Lekalakala, uyo akahwina mubairo we2018 Goldman Environmental Prize semurwi mukuru muAfrica gore rino, “Eskom neTransnet zviri kuongororwa nehuwori nekusafambisa zvakanaka. Hapana ongororo yakaitwa pachikwereti cheTransnet. Kana ariwo mashandiro anoita bhanga re[BRICS], tinofanira kuzvigadzirira kukurumidza kushatisa nharaunda tichitsvaga purofiti.”
Asi maBretton Woods Institutions haasi nani, uye gore rapfuura, Ramaphosa akashora kurerekera kweWashington achiti: “Hatifanirwe kuenda kuIMF nekuti kana taenda tinenge tave munzira inodzika, tinenge tichipa rusununguko rwedu. maererano nekutonga nyika yedu uye kupa hutongi hwedu. " Vakataura nezve njodzi yekudzikiswa kwe "kuderedzwa kwekushandisa munharaunda" izvo zvinotarisirwa neIMF kuraira kuEskom "kuti ibvise magetsi emahara kune varombo nevarombo."
Ramaphosa anoramba achiramba kuti Bretton Woods Institutions ichabvisa South Africa: "IMF, kwete, hatisi kutarisa IMF. Bhanga reNew Development Bank rine nzvimbo yatingakwanise kuwaniswa. Uye isu tiri kuongorora izvozvo zvakare. Uye tinoda kuzviita nenzira isingade vimbiso yehutongi. " Chaizvoizvo, Ramaphosa angangove asingareve iyo BRICS NDB, inoita zvikwereti zvakanangana nepurojekiti, asi panzvimbo payo madhora zana emabhiriyoni eContingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), iyo inopa bhirioni mazana matatu emadhora ekukweretesa kuSouth Africa kuti itore ipapo, kana kusakwana kwechimbichimbi-yekubhadhara.
Nekune rimwe divi, iyo BRICS inoratidzika kunge isina kuwirirana nhasi kupfuura muna Chikunguru, nekuti mutungamiri mutsva weBrazil, Jair Bolsonaro, anogona kudonha kubva mubloc uye, padiki, acharovera hutongi hwake kunaDonald Trump. Asi zvisinei nekutaurwa kakawanda kweSinophobia, Bolsonaro ichangobva kubvuma neshungu kuti ienderere mberi nekutenderera kweBRICS misoro-ye-nyika yekutambira (kunyangwe izvi zvingangoitika muBrasilia Mbudzi unotevera). Pachave neakawanda Trump-maitiro ezvematongerwo enyika, ehupfumi uye kunyanya mhirizhonga yezvakatipoteredza kutanga muna Ndira 1 paanova mutungamiri, sekufamba pamusoro peAmazon.
Asi kana tichienzanisa naMbudzi, vashoma vemukati vandakataura navo pakushanya kutanga kwemwedzi uno (kusanganisira aimbove Gurukota rezvekunze, Celso Amorim) vanotya kuti Bolsonaro ichadzikisa bloc kuRICS kuburikidza ne "Braxit," mabatiro aakaita kuUN Framework Convention on. Climate Change summit. (Akafanotungamira Michel Temer akange abvuma kuitambira kuBrazil mukupera kwegore rinouya, asi Chile yave kuzotora.)
Musiyano unowanzo taurwa pakati pezvirongwa zveBRICS neWashington, sezvakataurwa nemunyori waZuma Gayton Mckenzie, semuenzaniso, yaive ngano. Kubva 2014, Lagarde akanakidzwa nesimba rekubhadhara mari kune vanokwereta veBRICS (kwete chete SA, asiwo Brazil neRussia vanotambura nejunk), nekuti Zvinyorwa zveCRA zveChibvumirano zvinoti kana Pretoria (kana chero mumwe mukwereti achida) mabhiriyoni manomwe emadhora anotevera mumari yeBRICS mukati mechikamu chayo chemadhora mabhiriyoni gumi eCRA, inofanira kutanga yawana chirongwa cheIMF chekugadzirisa.
Kana Pretoria ichida mari yekubhadhara zvikwereti zvekunze zviri kuwedzera kunetsa muna 2019, nzanga iyi yakaputsika ingakwanisa kumirisana neIMF, zvichipihwa iro Bhizinesi reBusiness Day rakatodaidzwa kuti 2018 "sage fiscal consolidation"? Kudzikiswa kwakanyanya kwemari yezvivakwa zvakasiya kunyange mutongi gava pagakava, Meya weJohannesburg, VaHerman Mashaba, vachichema chema nekudzikiswa kwebhajeti rehomwe nechikamu che65 percent kuchirongwa cheguta cheguta.
Pasi rose, masangano ezvemari eBRICS haasi kusvika pazvinodiwa zvekubhadharisa mari kana kuparara kwemari kwakafanana nekwa1998 na2008 kukaonekwazve mumavhiki anouya, semuenzaniso nekuda kwe "kuparara kwakaomarara" kwaitarisirwa neBritain kubva kuEuropean Union musi wa29 Kurume. kunyangwe kusagadzikana kwehupfumi kwemavhiki mashoma apfuura, mari yekuSouth Africa ndiyo yainyanya kushanduka pasi rose (kubva pamakumi matatu nerimwe aitengeswa zvakanyanya). Rand riri kuramba richinetsa muchidimbu nekuda kwegurukota rezvemari, VaMalusi Gigaba, muna Kukadzi 31, kudzoreredzwa kwezvidzoreso zvekuchinjana pamadhora mabhiriyoni makumi mana nematatu emari yemunzvimbo inosima mari inokwanisa kubva muSouth Africa. (Izvi zvinoisa muchirevo chekutyisidzirwa kwekubuda kwemabhiriyoni manomwe emadhora kubva kuCitibank's World Government Bond Index kamwe apo Moody anozodonhedza demo rekusarudzika pachiyero chezvibatiso.)
Zvisinei, apo isu tichiramba tichibhadhara pedyo ne9 muzana yakaoma-yemari yechikwereti pamabhondi ehurumende yemakore gumi (kunyange yakakwirira kudarika iyo Venezuela), pachava nevatengi vanoda-kusvikira nyika inotevera yezvemari yakanyungudutsa ratchets rates kunyange yakakwirira. Uye kunyangwe BRICS ichipopota nezve shanduko yeIMF kuitira kudzikisira mutoro weanokwereta mamiriro, hapana shanduko muhuzivi hwehupfumi pasi peLagarde. Zvakatoipisisa, Africa yakarasikirwa nesimba rekuvhota mukupedzisira kugadziridzwa kwechikamu, muna 10, kusanganisira Nigeria ne2015 muzana uye South Africa ne41 muzana. Nyika huru dzakasimudza masheya adzo eIMF iChina (21 muzana), Brazil (35 muzana), India (23 muzana) neRussia (11 muzana).
Imwe nzira: kurambwa kwemabhanga ane huori
Shanduko yeIMF inosiya vanhu vazhinji vemuAfrica vaine izwi rakaderera kunoonekwa sekuremara, Ramaphosa pachake aiita seakabvuma mukutaura kuUnited Nations munaGunyana, achinyunyuta kuti IMF nemamwe masangano epasi rose "anofanira kuvandudzwa uye kuvandudzwa kuti vawedzere. zvinobudirira kutarisana nezvinetso zvenyika yazvino uye kubatsira zviri nani zvido zvevarombo nevanoshorwa.”
Nekuti zvido zvavo hazvishandiswe neveWashington kana kukweretesa kweNDB kune vane huori vehurumende, "varombo nevakashoreka" vanoda rimwe zano. Sezvakangoita mumazuva eJubilee 2000 sangano rekuramba zvikwereti, iro raitungamirwa muSouth Africa makumi maviri emakore apfuura nemudetembi mushakabvu Dennis Brutus naAnglican Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, kunonoka kwatinotaura nezvazvo, uye kuongorora, chikwereti chekunze cheSouth Africa. Kusanganisira vanokwereta vehurumende nevepachivande (avo nyika inovimbisa kuti mari yakaoma iripo kuti vadzorerwe), chikwereti chekunze chakamira pamadhora bhiriyoni gumi nenomwe kubva pakati pegore (kubva pamadhora mabhiriyoni makumi maviri nemashanu muna 171). Huwandu uhu, hwakaziviswa neSA Reserve Bank svondo rapfuura, hwakaderera nezvikamu zvisere kubva muzana kubva muna Kurume 25 pamadhora zana nemakumi masere nematatu emadhora, asi zvichikonzerwa ne “kutengesa kwevasiri vagari” kwemabhondi ehurumende ane mari yakawanda pamwe nekukosha kwemitengo.
Vane zvikwereti zvikuru vekunze vanoramba vari Eskom neTransnet. Vakaita kondirakiti, mumakore masere apfuura, zvikwereti zvitatu zvakakura zveSouth Africa:
- muna 2010, $3.75 bhiriyoni kubva kuWorld Bank, kunyanya yeMedupi marasha-chigadzirwa chemagetsi (chibvumirano icho sachigaro weEskom Valli Moosa akashoropodzwa nemudziviriri weruzhinji nekuda kwe "zvisina kunaka" kunetsana kwezvido kubva paakagara muANC Finance Committee, panguva yehuori hunozivikanwa hweHitachi hwebato rinotonga);
- muna 2013, $5 bhiriyoni kubva kuChina Development Bank, kunyanya yeTransnet kutenga zvinhu zvekushandisa kubva kunze kwenyika, kunyanya kune huwori hwekuwedzera petrochemical muDurban uye njanji yekutakura marasha kuRichards Bay (mazana emamiriyoni emadhora akarairwa zvisiri pamutemo kuburikidza neChina South. Chitima kuenda kuhumambo hweGupta, pamwe nechikwereti "mubhadharo wekubudirira" kubva kuchikwereti cheChinese); uye
- muna 2016, $5 bhiriyoni zvakare kubva kuChina Development Bank, zvikuru kune imwe Eskom yemamwe marasha mega-jenareta, Kusile, yakatanga kurongwa naMolefe uye yakavandudzwa pamusangano weBRICS Sandton Chikunguru apfuura.
Hapana chimwe chezvikwereti izvi chinogona kururamiswa, kunyanya pazvikonzero zvezvakatipoteredza - sezvo vese vachikurumidza kuwedzera chikwereti chemamiriro ekunze isu vanhu vekuSouth Africa vane chikwereti kuzvizvarwa zvinotevera uye, nekukurumidzira, vemazuva ano vemuAfrica vakawirwa nekusanaya kwemvura nemafashama. Zvakare, nehuwori hwekutengwa kwehurumende hunodhura pakati pe35-40 muzana pachibvumirano, sekureva kwemutungamiriri weTreasury muna 2016, pane nyaya yakasimba yekuongororwa kwechikwereti chakazara, ichiteverwa nechikumbiro chekuti World Bank, China Development Bank. , Bhangi reBRICS nevamwe vanokweretesa vanotorawo mhosva.
Mushure mezvose, iyo Hitachi inobata neANC bapiro rekudyara Chancellor House yakatungamira hurumende yeUS kubhadharisa kambani yeJapan mari inosvika mamirioni makumi maviri emadhora muna 20 - nekuda kwekutyorwa kwemutemo wezvehuori hwekunze kuEskom - uye nekudaro gurukota rezvemabhizimusi ehurumende Pravin Gordhan (ane basa rekukwereta. $2015 bhiriyoni muna 3.75) svondo rapfuura akapomera kushaya simba kweHitachi nekuda kwekubvisa mutoro nguva pfupi yadarika, izvo zvega zvinofanirwa kukumbira kuramba chikwereti cheWorld Bank.
Jim Kim haafanire kungotaura ichi chikuru-uye pamwe chakaipisisa-chikwereti munhoroondo yesangano rake. Nzvimbo yeBhangi iri inosanganisirawo chikamu chikuru muchirongwa chine mukurumbira cheCPS-Net1 che "kubatanidzwa kwemari" kubvisa mamiriyoni evarombo vekuSouth Africa, uye chikwereti chemadhora mamiriyoni zana nemakumi mashanu muLonmin kusvika nguva pfupi yapfuura kuuraya kweMarikana kwa150 (nguva pfupi yapfuura. Kim akava purezidhendi) Bhangi raipemberera sechiitiko chepamusoro-soro chebasa rekambani.
Wedzera kune izvi zvese kutyisidzira kutsva kweFaustian Pact 2.0 kubva kuLagarde inopokana netsika. Kudiwa kwesangano idzva reJubheri kuri pachena. Zvirongwa zvese zviripo zvekurwisa huwori zvinofanirwa kuitwa nekukasika, asi tarisiro yedu inogara yakadzikira zvinoreva kuti “Ramaphoria” yechokwadi, iyo kana yakakomba ingasanganisira kuramba vafambisi vezvemari veGupta neANC, vakaita seWorld Bank, China Development Bank uye. BRICS Bank - ingori fungidziro. Pane kudaro, meme inotsanangura zvakanyanya mamiriro edu ehutongi ndeye, Ramazupta.
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VaPatrick Bond ndivo muzvinafundo wezvehupfumi hwezvematongerwo enyika paWits School of Governance.