Imibono mayelana nendlela yokuqeda impi yase-Ukraine miningi. Abekho abavela e-Ukraine. Abekho abazuze amandla. Nazi, nokho, izibonelo ezintathu zalokho abantu abanolwazi abakucabangayo, kanye nokuhlola kwami.
Ngemuva kwe-Stalemate
Amalungu amabili okusungulwa kwenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yaseMelika, uRichard Haass noCharles Kupchan, banikeza indlela eya ekuthuleni okuxoxiswana ngayo odabeni luka-April Izindaba Zangaphandle. Bayavuma ukuthi “izimo azikakavuthwa ukuze kuxazululwe ngezingxoxo,” kodwa basikisela ukuthi “ukungqubuzana kwegazi” empini kunganikeza ithuba. Bahlongoza “isu elilandelanayo elinezinhlangothi ezimbili okuhloswe ngalo, okokuqala, ukuqinisa amandla ezempi e-Ukraine bese kuthi, lapho inkathi yokulwa iphela ngasekupheleni kwalo nyaka, isuse iMoscow neKyiv enkundleni yempi kuyibeke etafuleni lezingxoxo.”
Ingxenye yokuqala yesu labo idinga ukunikezwa kwezikhali okukhulu nakakhulu e-Ukraine, "ukulahlekelwa okukhulu" okubekwe eRussia, kanye nokucatshangelwa kokuphikiswa okuphumelelayo kwe-Ukraine. Ingxenye yesibili izobe isiwukumisa ukudubulana, lapho womabili amabutho ehlehlela emuva endaweni engenamasosha eqashwe i-UN noma i-Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Njengoba kusaqhubeka isivumelwano sokuthula, izingxoxo zokuthula zazizoqala, ngezindlela ezimbili: Izingxoxo zase-Ukraine-Russia emgqeni owodwa, inkhulumomphendvulwano ye-NATO-Russia kwenye.
Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi ababhali bagcizelela kakhulu usizo lwezikhali e-Ukraine-hhayi nje izikhali eziningi, kodwa izikhali ezibulalayo kakhulu, okuhlanganisa nezindiza eziphambili-kungase kube nzima ukuqonda ukukholelwa kwabo ekulandeleni i-diplomatic. Isimo singase senzeke, njengoba bebikezela, kodwa lokho akubangeli ngempela ugqozi kunoma yiluphi uhlangothi ukuthi luyeke ukulwa. Izikhali ezengeziwe zingase zisho impi eyengeziwe, akunjalo?
Ngokunengqondo, izindleko ezimbi zempi kuzo zombili izinhlangothi kufanele zibe abanye iphuzu ukukhuthaza isithakazelo ekumiseni impi, kodwa nini? Umphumela onengqondo ngokulinganayo wesimo samanje ukuthi impi idonsa omunye unyaka, ukuthi azikho izingxoxo zokuqeda umlilo noma zokuthula, nokuthi ngenxa yokukhathala, izinhlangothi zombili zithatha umhlalaphansi ngemuva kwanoma yimiphi imingcele amabutho azo akuyo.
I-athikili ye-Haass-Kupchan ibalulekile ngenxa yombiko wezindaba wokuthi laba babhali ababili, kanye nenhlobonhlobo yezinye izikhulu zikahulumeni zangaphambili, bahlangana ngokwethukela ngo-Ephreli nabathile baseRussia-kuhlanganise nongqongqoshe wezangaphandle waseRussia, uSergey Lavrov-ezingxoxweni mayelana nokuphela. impi. Lolu hlobo lwe-diplomacy luvame ukubizwa nge-Track 2 ukuze luhlukanise ku-Track 1, noma izingxoxo ezisemthethweni phakathi kwezikhulu eziphezulu zikahulumeni.
Ngokuvumelana ne Izindaba ze-NBC, eyaphula indaba, abahlanganyeli baseRussia bacatshangwa ukuthi banendlebe kaPutin. Abaphathi beBiden bebezazi lezi zingxoxo futhi bazisiwe ngemiphumela yabo, kodwa ayizange imelelwe ngokusemthethweni.
Imininingwane eminingana ebalulekile mayelana nalezi zingxoxo ayaziwa: ingqikithi yazo, ukuthi abahlanganyeli bahlangana kangaki, yini eye yaziswa kubaholi baseRussia noma base-US, ukuthi izingxoxo ziqhubekisele phambili inqubo yokuthula noma cha, ukuthi babengobani ababambiqhaza baseRussia, nokuthi iTrack noma cha. 2 umzamo uzoqhubeka.
I-Track 2 diplomacy inenzuzo kwezinye izimo. Isetshenziswe izikhathi ezingaphezu kwezimbalwa ekusebenzelaneni kwase-US neNyakatho Korea, okuhlanganisa okudume kakhulu yilowo owayenguMongameli. UJimmy Carter ngesikhathi eya ePyongyang ngo-1994, njengoba nje i-US neNorth Korea kwakubonakala sengathi ibheke emqhudelwaneni wenuzi. Ukuthi izingxoxo ze-US-Russia Track 2 zihlakaniphile yini kusazocaciswa. Ukungazi amagama abo bonke abahlanganyeli baseRussia kuphakamisa imibuzo mayelana nokufinyelela kwabo kuPutin, ingasaphathwa ithonya labo naye.
Okubaluleke kakhulu, uma kuza ekuxoxisaneni ngezivumelwano zamazwe ngamazwe, izingxoxo zika-Track 2 azikwazi ukuthatha indawo ka-Track 1. Izikhulu zangaphambili kanye nabeluleki abanakho ukuma ukuze bazibophezele noma banqumele ohulumeni babo imigomo. (Ngisho noJimmy Carter akazange; wacasula uMnyango Wezwe ngokuya eNyakatho Korea, kodwa uhambo lwakhe lwaphumelela.)
Uhlelo lokumiswa komlilo olwethulwa yilaba bantu baseMelika ababili kulezi zingxoxo, nokho, lungathathwa amaRussia njengenkomba yalokho okucatshangwa yisikhulu iWashington. Lelo cebo, elithembele kakhulu embuthweni wezempi, lingase liqhubekisele phambili ukukholisa uPutin nombuthano wakhe ongaphakathi ukuthi ukuqhubeka nokulwa kuphela okufanele ukuphishekelwa—okuphambene ncamashi nethemba labantu baseMelika, futhi okuphambene ncamashi nalokho noma yiluphi uhlelo lokuthula okufanele luhlanganiselwe uma luzoba nokwethembeka.
Umhlaba Wokuthula
Umphathi wabasebenzi kuNobhala-Jikelele we-NATO uthole ukunakwa okungaphezu kokuncane lapho ethi indlela yokuthula e-Ukraine ukuhwebelana nomhlaba neRussia ukuze kube nesivumelwano sokuthula kanye nesithembiso sobulungu be-Ukraine ku-NATO. Unobhala-jikelele, u-Jens Stoltenberg, uwudubule phansi lo mbono, ethi indlela yokuxazulula “ukweseka i-Ukraine ngezempi. Uma ufuna ukuthula okuhlala njalo, nje, khona-ke ukusekelwa kwezempi kwe-Ukraine kuyindlela yokufika lapho. Akukho ukungabaza ngalokho.”
Wengeze wathi: “Yi-Ukraine, futhi yi-Ukraine kuphela, enganquma ukuthi izimfuneko zezingxoxo zikhona nini. Futhi ubani onganquma, eduze kwetafula lokuxoxisana, yisiphi isisombululo esamukelekayo. Umsebenzi wethu wukubaseka.”
Noma kunjalo, umhlaba wokuthula uwumbono ozwakala kaningi, ikakhulukazi inqobo nje uma impi yase-Ukraine ihluleka ukukhiqiza noma yiluphi ushintsho olukhulu enkundleni yempi. Enye indlela yokusekelwa okungapheli kwe-Ukraine izwakala iyinhle, kodwa futhi iyincwadi yempi engapheli-impi esivele ibize ingxenye yesigidi izimpilo nokulimala kwamasosha nhlangothi zombili, ngokusho kwesikhulu saseMelika.
Iqala Ukukhuluma Manje
A New Yorker i-athikili ka-Keith Gessen inikeza imicabango yomhlaziyi waseRussia we-RAND Corporation, uSamuel Charap. Imibono yakhe isuka enkolelweni yokuthi unswinyo olunzima eRussia kanye nokwengezwa njalo kwezikhali zase-Ukraine kubukela phansi noma yimaphi amathuba okuqeda impi. Uthanda ukuxoxisana noma kuliwa.
Ngokuphambene nombono okhona wokuthi ukunqotshwa kwenkundla yempi kuphela okuzokwenza uPutin aphaphame, uCharap uthanda ukumiswa kwezimo zenkundla yempi kanye nokumiswa kokudubula okuzoqukatha izikhuthazo nezijeziso ezanele ukuvimbela ukuqala kabusha kwempi. Uphikisa ngokuthi, iRussia isivele yehluliwe: “Ithonya layo esifundeni, ukundiza kwethalente—imiphumela yamasu ibe mikhulu, nganoma iyiphi indlela.” Ngasohlangothini lwase-Ukraine, noma yikuphi ukuzuza okukhulu kwendawo akunakwenzeka, kuyilapho ukulwa okuqhubekayo kungase kuholele esigamekweni esingase sibangele ukwanda okusha.
UCharap kudingeke ukuthi abhekane nokugxekwa okuningi nokumangalelwa kanzima. Omunye, ongowase-Ukraine owamuzwa ekhuluma, wakhomba ukuhlupheka kwabo bonke labo bantu abasensimini ephethwe amaRussia. IRussia yayizobekwa kanjani icala ngamacala ayo empi? UCharap akabanga nampendulo ngaphandle kokuthi uhulumeni wase-Ukraine kuzodingeka akhethe phakathi kwezinhlobo ezimbili zokulahlekelwa, kungaba yimpi noma endaweni ehlalwa abantu—isinqumo esibi.
Noma kunjalo, uCharap wenza iphuzu elibalulekile ngaphambi kokuxoxisana ukulungiselela kungaba isinyathelo esihlakaniphile, lapho “empeleni ninikela ngezinsiza ezingaphakathi kuhulumeni ukuze nicabangele izinto ezingokoqobo futhi nithole izingcezu ezifanele.” Kepha lokho kuzodinga ukuthi iRussia ne-Ukraine, kanye ne-US, baqoke abameleli ukuthi baqale ukukhuluma.
Izithako Ezidingekayo Zohlelo Lokuthula
Noma yiluphi uhlelo lokuthula ludinga ukunaka okungenani lawa maqiniso amathathu. Okokuqala, njengoba uMongameli Zelensky eshilo, "isiphetho se-Ukraine asinakunqunywa ngaphandle kwe-Ukraine." Lokho kufaka phakathi izingxoxo zangaphambilini, izingxoxo ezisemthethweni, kanye nezingxoxo ze-Track II. Okwesibili, iRussia kumele ikhokhele ulaka lwayo. Ngokwemibiko yezindaba, umqondo wokusetshenziswa kwempahla yaseRussia engaba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-300 uzokwephula umthetho wamazwe ngamazwe.
Okunye, i New York Times kubika, “iwukusebenzisa inzuzo etholwa izinkampani zezezimali ezizinze eYurophu eziphethe impahla futhi zithumele leyo nzuzo e-Ukraine”—imali engaba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu zamaRandi ngonyaka. Lokhu kanye neminye imibono ejikelezayo manje ibonakala isekelwe esimisweni esisodwa: inzuzo evela empahleni yaseRussia, kodwa ekugcineni ibuyisele isimiso eRussia.
Lokho kuhambisana nephuzu lesithathu: Njengoba kucatshangelwa isifundo seMpi Yezwe I, iRussia akumelwe ijeziswe kanzima kangangokuthi inikeze usizo nenduduzo kwabavuseleli. Ukubuyiselwa kanye nokuqulwa kwamacala empi kufanele kushiye indawo yokukhuphuka kwenye iGorbachev, kungadali izimo zomunye uPutin. Umbono wesikole "sokunqoba okuphelele", ukuthi iRussia kumele ikhokhe kakhulu ngakho-ke ngeke iphinde ibe yi-imperialism-ethathwe esihlokweni esithi Isithombe sika-Eliot Cohen isihloko esithi, “Akwanele Ukunqoba I-Ukraine, IRussia Imelwe Ilahlekelwe”—kuyisisekelo esiyingozi somgomo.
Ekugcineni, njengoba uSamuel Charap esho, i-US idinga i-Plan B uma kwenzeka impi inzima. I-Ukraine akufanele ibe nesheke elingenalutho ukuze iqhubeke nokulwa ngokungapheli, kodwa futhi akufanele kube namadili ngemuva kwayo.
Izingxoxo angeke kube yinto embi, njengoba manje kubonakala kube njalo.
UMel Gurtov, ogunyazwe ngu PeaceVoice, unguProfesa Emeritus Wesayensi Yezombangazwe e-Portland State University kanye namabhulogi at In Interesting Abantu.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
Nikela