Izivumelwano Zezikhali kanye Nokuqina Kwezingxabano
Kukhala izinsimbi e-Tokyo, eSeoul, nase-Washington mayelana nokuthenga kukaKim Jong Un ngesikhathi sokuhlala kwakhe izinsuku eziyisi-6 e-Vladivostok. Wavakashela uhla olugcwele lwezakhiwo zamasosha aseRussia—izisekelo, izindawo ezicitshwayo, amachweba, ichweba lasemkhathini. UKim wayebonakala enesithakazelo esithile kubuchwepheshe basemkhathini, ngokungangabazeki ngenxa yokwehluleka kokwethulwa komkhathi okubili kwakamuva.
Kusukela emibikweni eyahlukene, ukuthengiselana kuzokwenzeka ngezindlela ezimbili. I-Russia cishe izohlinzeka iNorth Korea ngosizo kubuchwepheshe bemicibisholo, naphezu kokujeziswa kwe-UN ekuhlolweni kwemicibisholo yaseNyakatho. I-Russia ingase futhi inikeze usizo lokudla ukuze iqede umkhakha wezolimo waseNyakatho Korea ohlale unezinkinga, futhi ingase inyuse isibalo sabasebenzi ebathumela eNyakatho Korea. INorth Korea kungenzeka inikeze iRussia izikhali ezahlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa iziqhumane eziningi zamarokhethi, amagobolondo ezikhali, izibhamu ezidubulayo, ama-drones, nemicibisholo.
Ngokuvamile kukholakala ukuthi iRussia, naphezu kokujula kwezimboni zayo zempi, idinga kabi izinto eziyisisekelo zempi njengamagobolondo ezikhali. Kepha iChina ibingumphakeli omanqikanqika, ikakhulukazi ishiya insimu iye e-Iran naseNyakatho Korea. (Khumbula ukuthi iSouth Korea muva nje ivumile ukuqala ukudayisela i-Ukraine izikhali. Futhi iSouth Korea isiphenduke umlingani omkhulu wezempi nezimboni nePoland, ithatha isexwayiso kuVladimir Putin ngonyaka odlule.)
INorth Korea ngokuzumayo iyintandokazi yamanxusa aseRussia naseChina. NgoJulayi, iRussia yathumela ungqongqoshe wezokuvikela uSergei Shoigu ukuthi avakashele eNyakatho Korea, okokuqala ngqa kusukela ezinsukwini zaseSoviet lapho ungqongqoshe wezokuvikela waseRussia evakashele eNyakatho Korea.
Ngemva kohambo lukaKim Jong Un oluya eVladivostok, ungqongqoshe wezangaphandle waseChina uWang Yi waya eNyakatho Korea, nongqongqoshe wezangaphandle waseRussia uSergei Lavrov wenza okufanayo. Ingqikithi yalokho kuvakasha akukavezwa, kodwa mhlawumbe akusona nje isinyathelo sokuqinisa ubudlelwano babo.
Kungenzeka futhi ukuthi baphendula intuthuko emithathu: isivumelwano sakamuva sezinhlangothi ezintathu seSouth Korea, i-US kanye neJapan sokujulisa ukubambisana kwezokuphepha; umjikelezo omusha wemihlangano yezikhulu zezokuvikela zase-US kanye ne-South Korea mayelana nokuvimba iNorth Korea ngokusebenzisa iQembu Lezeluleko Lenuzi elisanda kwakhiwa; kanye nenkulumo esezingeni eliphezulu eSouth Korea, nakuba ivinjelwe iWashington, mayelana nokwakha ezayo izikhali zenuzi.
Ngakho, izinsongo zenuzi ezisobala zenziwa yi kokubili AmaKorea. Cabanga ngalokhu umbiko emaphephandabeni aseNingizimu Korea ngesitatimende esihlanganyelwe se-US-ROK ngemva kokuvakasha kwesikhulu somnyango wezokuvikela wase-US: “Uhlangothi lwase-US luphinde lwaqinisekisa ukuzibophezela kwalo 'kwe-ironclad' ekuvikeleni iNingizimu Korea, lusebenzisa 'uhlu olugcwele' lwamakhono alo ezempi, futhi waphinda wathi noma yikuphi ukuhlasela kwenyukliya kweNyakatho ngokumelene ne-US kanye nabalingani bayo kuzoholela 'ekupheleni kombuso kaKim'. "
Okunye Ukubuka
Ingabe ukuhlolwa okusha kwemicibisholo ye-ballistic yaseNyakatho Korea noma ngisho nesivivinyo senuzi esilindelwe isikhathi eside sesikhombisa sizosondela? Ingabe usongo oluvela eNyakatho selukhuphukele kwelinye izinga? Abahlaziyi abaningi base-US naseNingizimu Korea babonakala becabanga kanjalo, kodwa nansi eminye imibono.
Abantu ababili abanolwazi olunzulu mayelana neNyakatho Korea, uRobert Carlin kanye noSiegfried Hecker, bangena bajule ohambweni lukaKim eRussia. Babhala ukuthi "kuwumphumela woshintsho olubalulekile kunqubomgomo yaseNyakatho Korea, ekugcineni belahle umzamo weminyaka engama-30 wokulungisa ubudlelwano ne-US."
Ngokuphambene nombono ovamile weNyakatho Korea, laba chwepheshe bathi njengoba uKim etshale imali eningi ezikhalini zenuzi nemicibisholo, waphinde wabheka ukuzisebenzisa njengezingxoxo zezingxoxo ne-US, ngethemba lokuthi angathola iziqinisekiso zokuphepha njengengxenye yobudlelwano obujwayelekile. Kepha uKim wagcina ephethe ngemuva kokusebenzelana kwakhe noTrump kanye nokunganakwa kukaBiden ukuthi ukujwayelekile bekungafezeki.
Ngaleso sikhathi, wathuthela eduze kwaseMoscow naseBeijing. Ithuba eliphuthelwe yi-US? Mhlawumbe; futhi njengobudlelwane base-US ne-Iran, impi yase-Ukraine idonse ukunaka kwabenzi benqubomgomo yase-Washington kangangokuthi izingxoxo zokudala ezihloselwe ukugcina izikhali zenuzi ezinqolobaneni zabo azinakwa.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuvakasha kukaKim eRussia kungase kudale izinkinga eChina. I-Russia kungenzeka ukuthi ithole inzuzo ngaphezu kwe-China ngokuba umhlinzeki wezikhali obalulekile ePyongyang.
UKim wasebenzisa lesi senzakalo ukuze agcizelele ukusekela kwempi yaseRussia e-Ukraine, ethi: Ngokwesibonelo: IRussia “izozuza ukunqoba okukhulu emzabalazweni ongcwele wokujezisa iqembu lobubi elilangazelele ukubusa futhi elidla amasu okwandisa.” Inkokhelo elindelekile eRussia, ngokuqinisekile, kodwa mhlawumbe okunye okunye.
Ithonya elikhulu laseRussia eNyakatho Korea lingase liholele ekuvivinyweni okwengeziwe kwemicibisholo kaKim kanye nokushuba kwesimo enhlonhlweni yaseKorea. UPutin angathola lokho kuwusizo njengoba impi yase-Ukraine iqhubeka, kodwa amaShayina abelokhu ekhathazekile ngenkinga esemnyango wabo ebangelwa ukuhlolwa kwezikhali zaseNyakatho Korea.
Uma kubhekwa izinkinga zabo zasekhaya kanye nokungezwani ne-US namuhla, inhlekelele enhlonhlweni yaseKorea izobonakala ingamukelekile ikakhulukazi eBeijing. Kuzofanele ngicabange ukuthi umbono udluliselwe kuKim Jong Un nabaseRussia izikhathi ezingaphezu kwesisodwa.
Ukube ubudlelwano baseMelika neChina bebungcono, ukubambisana kweChina ekunqandeni uKim Jong Un kungabalwa. Akunjalo, futhi ngaleyo ndlela elinye ithuba elilahlekile lokunciphisa ukungezwani.
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Nikela