Ubushiqela Obuthaka Kabi
Umbuso wobushiqela wezempi waseMyanmar (Burma), owathatha amandla ngo-2021, kungazelelwe usengcupheni yokuhlaselwa ngamabutho okumelana nama-hodgepodge ahambisana ngokukhululekile ngaphansi koHulumeni Wobumbano Lwesizwe. Lawa mabutho ayizinhlobo ezimbili: amabutho ezinhlanga ezincane, kwesinye isikhathi abizwa ngokuthi yi-Three Brotherhood Alliance, anomlando omude wokuphikisa uhulumeni wezempi, kanye namaqembu asekela intando yeningi esekelwa yi-NUG ahlangene kusukela ngesikhathi kuketulwa umbuso ngo-2021. (A ncwadi zezintatheli zaseMyanmar ezidingiselwe eThailand zibala amaqembu ahlomile angama-30 esewonke, angu-10 awo angamabutho ezinhlanga).
Okwenza ukuthi ukumelana kube yingozi kakhulu kwezempi manje ukuthi amabutho ahlukahlukene ayaxhumanisa futhi aya ngokuya ephumelela enyakatho nasenyakatho-mpumalanga, izindawo ezisemngceleni weChina kanye neThailand neNdiya. Abaphikisayo bathumbe amadolobha, bashaqa izikhali, futhi bathola ukuzinikela kwamanye amayunithi kahulumeni, muva nje okuhlanganisa nebutho lonke. Izinkulungwane zabantu zibalekile empini, ikakhulukazi eNdiya.
Umbutho wezempi waseMyanmar unamabutho aphakeme phansi nasemkhathini, nokho umbiko we-BBC uthi: “Ngemva kweminyaka emibili nengxenye yokulwa nokuvukela ngezikhali okwabangelwa ukuketulwa kwezikhali okuyinhlekelele, amasosha abukeka entekenteke, futhi kungenzeka anganqotshwa.” UMkhandlu Wezobudlelwano Nangaphandle cwaningo kusikisela ukuthi okunye ukuketula umbuso kwezikhulu zebutho ezingeneme kungenzeka.
Isikhundla saseChina
I-China ibonakala idlala nhlangothi zombili, akungabazeki ukuthi iyawazi umthelela wezokuphepha wokusekela eyodwa kuphela.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iye yasekela ngokuqhubekayo ukucindezelwa kwe-junta. Ubuholi baseMyanmar benza sengathi konke kuhamba kahle ebudlelwaneni neChina. Igcizelela ukuthi izibopho ziqinile nokuthi ubudlelwano bamasu buqinile. Ubufakazi bakamuva wukuvakasha kwechweba ngoNovemba 27 ngemikhumbi emithathu yaseShayina, okuhlanganisa nombhubhisi, ukulungiselela ukuhamba kwemikhumbi ehlangene.
Nokho, ngemuva kwezigcawu, imibiko ikhombisa ukungenami phakathi kwezikhulu ngobudlelwano beChina namaqembu amavukelambuso, ikakhulukazi ukuthengiswa kwezikhali kulawo maqembu. Lokho kucasuka kwaholela embhikishweni wokuqala ngqa wokulwa neChina ngaphandle kwehhovisi lenxusa lase-China e-Yangon ngomhlaka-17 Nov.
Umnyango wezangaphandle waseChina umkhulumeli kudingeke ukuthi ikhiphe isitatimende esisemthethweni esiqinisekisa ababhikishi ukuthi iChina ayilokothi igxambukele ezindabeni zangaphakathi zaseMyanmar.
Iziphathimandla zaseShayina zisondelene ngempela namaqembu ezizwe avukelayo, athembise ukuvikela ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamaShayina ezindaweni amaqembu alawula kuzo. Indawo yasemngceleni osenyakatho-mpumalanga iyindawo yezenzo zobugebengu—ukushushumbiswa kwezidakamizwa kanye nemisebenzi ye-cyberscam—ekhathaza i-China ngenxa yomthelela wayo kubantu baseShayina kanye namandla okuba nezibhelu emngceleni.
I-Beijing ayizange iwagxeke amabutho aphikisayo noma agunyaze imizamo ye-junta yokuwaqeda. Ngokusho kuka-a umbikoyi-US Institute of Peace (USIP), "iBeijing icishe yagunyaza lokhu kucasula ngemuva kokuthi ojenene be-junta bengazinaki izicelo zabo zokuthi babambe iqhaza ezikhungweni zobugebengu ezinenzuzo enkulu emngceleni omuhle kakhulu kubantu baseChina."
Lokho cishe sekuthole ukunakwa kojenene: I-junta manje ibika ukuthi i-China yenza izingxoxo zokuthula phakathi kweqembu elikhulu eliphikisayo elihlomile nohulumeni.
Ngemva Kokunqoba: Izinselele Ezizayo
Ukuphumelela kwezempi kwamasosha aphikisayo kubangela umbuzo, Ingase ibukeke kanjani iMyanmar uma inganqoba—okungukuthi, ukuphoqelela ukuwa kwebutho lezempi?
Ucwaningo lwe-USIP, ngokumangazayo, lunethemba. Nakuba abanye ochwepheshe bengase babikezele ukwehlukana kokumelana ngokobuhlanga nepolitiki, okunye okutholakele ocwaningweni lwe-USIP ukuthi:
“Iningi [lamasosha aphikisayo] ligqugquzelwa ikakhulukazi isifiso sokuvikela imiphakathi ebuthweni elihlaselayo kanye nokuzuza umbono omusha wezombangazwe nezenhlalo. Amasosha amaningi okumelana . . . banezimpande emiphakathini abayisebenzelayo. Ngokunjalo, izinhlangano ezimelene nezinhlanga [EROs] zaqala njengezinhlangano zomphakathi emashumini eminyaka adlule, hhayi amaqembu ahlomile, futhi ziyaqhubeka nokusebenzela imiphakathi yazo.”
Mayelana namandla okunqoba ukungezwani nokwakha iMyanmar entsha, ucwaningo lwe-USIP luthola:
“Ukuzuza uhlelo olusha lwezepolitiki ngeke kucace futhi kuzodinga iminyaka yezingxoxo zezwe. Kodwa ucwaningo lwe-USIP lukhombisa ukuthi inhlangano isivele yenze inqubekelaphambili ephusile ebheke ekubuyisaneni kuzwelonke kanye nokwakha umbono owabiwe. Izinhlobo ezahlukene zokubambisana phakathi kwama-ERO kanye nemiphakathi yase-Bamar mayelana nokusebenza kwezempi, ukuhlinzekwa kwezinsizakalo zezenhlalakahle kanye nokusabela kobuntu kubonisa ubumbano olukhulayo. "
Ezinye izinto ezimbili umnyakazo okuzodingeka uzifeze: ukuphambukisa abalimi ekukhiqizeni i-opium, nokuhlehlisa ukukhula kwezwe okumile. Ihhovisi le-UN leDrugs and Crime likwenzile nje lokhu kumemezela ukuthi iMyanmar idlule i-Afghanistan njengomholi womhlaba ekukhiqizeni i-opium.
Ukungavikeleki okwandayo ngokusobala kube nomthelela ekwandeni kokusetshenziswa kopopi. Kube negalelo nasekunciphiseni kakhulu uhwebo, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe, ukwehla kwamandla emali, kanye nokuxoshwa kwabantu abangaba yizigidi ezingu-2.5, ngokusho kweBhange Lomhlaba. Ibhange amaphrojekthi ukukhula komnotho jikelele kweMyanmar ngephesenti elilodwa.
Ingabe inhlangano ehlukahlukene yokuphikisa ingahlangana ukuze yakhe umphakathi onobulungiswa nolinganayo? Uma ukude kungase kubonakale sengathi izingqinamba ziyaphikisana, kodwa esimweni esithile saseMyanmar, ukukhululwa esisindweni esinzima samasosha kungase kube isithako esibalulekile ekwakheni ukuvumelana kwezwe lokubusa kwentando yeningi kanye nobulungiswa bezenhlalakahle.
UMel Gurtov, ogunyazwe ngu PeaceVoice, unguProfesa Emeritus Wesayensi Yezombangazwe e-Portland State University kanye namabhulogi at In Interesting Abantu.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
Nikela