IHAMMERWE YIngcinezelo, uguquko lwaseSyria lukwingxaki, kwaye i-US kunye neYurophu ziyangenelela ngethemba lokubumba isiphumo ukuze sihambelane ne-ajenda yabo yama impiriyali kuMbindi Mpuma.
Kuqikelelwa ukuba abantu abangama-5,000 babulewe yimikhosi yaseburhulumenteni eSyria ukusukela oko kwaqala uqhankqalazo ngoFebruwari, kwaye amawaka amaninzi avalelwe entolongweni kwaye angcungcuthekiswa. Kodwa nabani na ocinga ukuba iWashington inamalungelo oluntu abantu baseSyria entliziyweni kufuneka akhumbule ukuba kwiiveki zokuqala zoqhanqalazo kwiinyanga ezilithoba ezidlulileyo, i-US yathula njengoko imikhosi kaMongameli uBashar al-Assad izama ukutshabalalisa intshukumo yokuqala yoqhanqalazo. idolophu yaseDaraa. UNobhala kaRhulumente u-Hillary Clinton uchaze u-Assad "njengomguquli," kunye noSihlalo weKomiti ye-Senate yezoBudlelwane bamazwe angaphandle uJohn Kerry, owaphuhlisa ubudlelwane obusondeleyo no-Assad kwiminyaka yamuva, baphikisana ngokunika umongameli ithuba.
Ummelwane wakwaSirayeli-oye wachaza iSyria njengesona sisongelo esikhulu-kwaye uphembelele i-US ukuba igcine u-Assad endaweni, kumdla "wozinzo" kuMbindi Mpuma. Kumphezulu, u-Israel uthetha ngolawulo lwaseSyria ngokungathi lutshaba olusebenzisana neIran. Kodwa i-Assad iseyeyona ndlela ikhuselekileyo. Ukuba ulawulo luyatshintsha okanye intshukumo yedemokhrasi ifumana isiseko sekhonkrithi eSyria, uSirayeli akazi ukuba alindele ntoni.
Njengoko ukubulawa kwabantu kwaqhubeka kwaye intshukumo yoguquko yasasazeka, i-US yagqiba ukuba iintsuku zika-Assad zibaliwe kwaye zatshintshela kumbono wokutshintsha kolawulo. INtshona iphinde yakhuthazwa ziziphumo zovukelo lwaseLibya, olwathinjwa ngenxa yeebhombu ze-NATO, "abacebisi" basemkhosini kunye nabangaphambili ababesebenzisana norhulumente kaMuammar el-Qaddafi.
Abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo wama-impiriyali ke ngoko baxoxa ngendlela yokulungelelanisa ungenelelo lwabo eSyria. Uhlaselo lohlobo lwase-Iraq alukho etafileni ngenxa yezizathu ezicacileyo zomkhosi, ezopolitiko kunye nezoqoqosho. Kodwa iSebe likaRhulumente, abaphathiswa bamazwe angaphandle aseYurophu kunye nobhedu lomkhosi banexhala lokuba kwanephulo lokuqhunyiswa kwebhombu yaseLibya linokuyiqhekeza iSyria, ibangele uhlobo lwemfazwe yamakhaya ebonwa kwiLebhanon engummelwane.
Injongo yabo, ke ngoko, kukukhupha urhulumente ka-Assad ngelixa begcina urhulumente eqinile.
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Ngenxa yoko, iNtshona ngoku ubukhulu becala inciphisa ukungenelela kwayo kwizohlwayo kunye nenkxaso yezopolitiko kubachasayo. Ngelixa ilungu le-NATO laseTurkey livumele ukusekwa kwesiseko soMkhosi waMahala waseSyria-owenziwe ngabavukeli kumkhosi waseSyria-kukho ubungqina obuncinci bokuba aba balo banikwe izixhobo kunye noqeqesho lolo hlobo lunikezelwe kwimikhosi yabavukeli baseLibya.
Ngoko ke, ugqaliselo longenelelo lube luzohlwayo. Amagunya aseNtshona-asebenza ngeTurkey kunye ne-Arab League-anethemba lobhukuqo-mbuso oluza kugxotha u-Bashar al-Assad kwaye lushiye izixhobo zokhuseleko zaseSyria zinjalo.
UBurhan Ghalioun, inkokeli yeBhunga leSizwe laseSyria (SNC)-iqela elichasayo elinobudlelwane obusondeleyo neNtshona-uthi ufuna into efanayo: "Sifuna ukwahlula phakathi kolawulo kunye nombuso waseSyria. Akusayi kubakho ziphithiphithi ezifana neLibya. Sisenamaziko omkhosi anamandla esifuna ukuwagcina."
Inkokeli ye-SNC ithi ichasene nongenelelo lwendlela yaseLibya kwaye ifuna amaSyria enze eyabo inguqu. Kodwa ucela ngokucacileyo ukuba i-UN igunyazise indawo engenanto yokubhabha yokukhusela iimbacu kwaye inike inkcaso indawo ekhululekileyo yokulungelelanisa:
Siyabacela [uluntu lwamazwe ngamazwe] ukuba bahlole zonke iindlela ezinokukhethwa ukuze benze kwaye banyanzelise indawo ekhuselekileyo eSyria kwaye bayeke ubungendawo obenziwa kwiidolophu zaseSyria. Sifuna indawo ekungabhabhiyo kuyo ngokuyinxenye: ukugubungela indawo enyiniweyo, ngaphezulu nje kwendawo enye. Asifuni ukutshatyalaliswa ngokupheleleyo kokhuselo lomoya waseSyria.
Imodeli ebonakalayo ye-SNC yindawo ekungabhabhayo eyamiselwa phezu kwe-Iraqi Kurdistan yi-US kunye neBritane emva kweMfazwe yeGulf ka-1991. Amanani aphambili kwi-SNC ngabaukujikeleza uxwebhu elungiselelwe ngumbutho wezokhuseleko wamazwe ngamazwe waseBritane ochaza indlela "indawo ekhuselekileyo" enjalo inokumiselwa ngayo ngamagunya aseNtshona.
Iimbono zikaGhalioun azibanjwanga ngawo onke amalungu kwi-SNC, equlathe omabini amacandelo olawulo lwangaphambili kunye nemikhosi yasekhohlo yeziko. Kodwa nguGhalioun ophakanyiswa yi impiriyali njengomntu ophambili.
Okwangoku, kukho iyantlukwano phakathi komanyano lwama-impiriyali i-US izama ukuyisebenzisa.
Ngokwenxalenye yayo, iTurkey ifuna ukuphepha imfazwe yonke okanye ukubetha umoya kwe-NATO, okunokubangela ingxaki yababaleki kwimida yayo. Ikwafuna ukuzibonakalisa kwakhona eSyria, ummandla woBukhosi baseTurkey baseTurkey. Oku kuya kunika iTurkey, eyandayo kwipolitiki yaseMbindi Mpuma, impembelelo ebanzi kwilizwe lama-Arabhu.
Ukungenelela kwe-Arab League kwahlulahlulwe. Igqiza lombutho elibhengezwe kakhulu eSyria libandakanya abameli abavela kumazwe aseGulf abasebenza njengabameli baseWashington kunye namanani afana nowayesakuba ngumkhosi waseSudan otyholwa ngolwaphulo-mthetho lwemfazwe onokuthi abe novelwano no-Assad kuneenjongo zase-US.
Kodwa ngokubanzi, igqiza le-Arab League lalijonge ukuba lingayeki okanye libhentsise ingcinezelo yovukelo, kodwa libonelele ngoqwalaselo lwama impiriyali-ukukhangela enye indawo yodidi olulawulayo ku-Assad. Umyalezo: Ditch Assad, kwaye ungagcina izixhobo zakho zokhuseleko kunye namalungelo ezoqoqosho, njengoko oongxowankulu kunye nobhedu lomkhosi eJiphutha bezama ukwenza emva kwexesha likaMubarak.
Isithembiso sisenokuhenda injengele yaseSyria okanye ipolitiki ejonge ukugcina ulusu kulawulo lwange-Assad. Kodwa okwangoku, ukhetho lwe-Egypt lujongeka lunobungozi kudidi olulawulayo lwaseSyria. I-junta yomkhosi eqhuba i-Egypt inobunzima ekuhambeni inguqu yayo ukuya kwidemokhrasi enomda kakhulu, kwaye iingxaki zokuhamba okunjalo eSiriya zinkulu kakhulu. Ngenxa yothungelwano oluqinileyo kumbindi weqela elilawulayo laseSyria, akukho nto ixelayo ukuba i-anti-Assad iya kuphelela phi-kwaye inokuphuma lula kulawulo kwaye ikhokelele ekutyhilekeni korhulumente.
Yiyo loo nto imikhosi ka-Assad yayizimisele ukudubulisa abaqhankqalazi ababesiya ezitalatweni ukuze banxibelelane nabakhi-mkhanyo be-Arab League. Nokuba yayiyintoni na injongo yabathunywa ngabanye, baye basebenza ngokufanelekileyo njengababheki ekujoliswe kubo kulawulo. Iividiyo ezininzi eziposwe ngabaphembeleli benguqu zibonise ukuba abalindi abenzi nto njengoko ucinezelo lwenzeka, ngenxa yokuba bengakwazi okanye bengafuni kwenza nto.
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NGEXA iNtshona ingazange ikwazi ukugxotha uAssad, ngokunjalo nombutho wenguqu awuzange uphumelele.
Ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-40, urhulumente weBaath Party uye wadlala ngeeyantlukwano zonqulo nezobuhlanga ukuze uqinise ulawulo lwayo. Uninzi lwamadoda aphambili emkhosini nakwezopolitiko asuka kwiqela lamaSilamsi eAlawite.
Urhulumente, naye, uye wabonakala njengomkhuseli wabambalwa-Alawites, kunye namaKrestu kunye neDruze, ngokuchasene nesininzi samaSilamsi angamaSunni. Esi yayisisizathu esichaziweyo sokubulawa kwabantu ngo-1981 eHama.
AmaKurds, nangona kunjalo, ayecalucalulwa ngokucwangcisiweyo, kubandakanya nokwalelwa kwamalungelo obumi kubantu abamalunga nama-300,000-de urhulumente wanikezela ngotshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo kumzamo ongaphumelelanga wokutsala amaKurds kude kwintshukumo yenguqu.
Kukwenza lula kakhulu, nangona kunjalo, ukuchaza urhulumente njengolawulo lwe-"Alawite". U-Assad uye walawula ngokubambisana nothungelwano lweshishini leSunni, kwaye olu budlelwane buye bahlengahlengiswa yi-neoliberal market-oriented reforms eziye zahlengahlengisa amanye amashishini ngokwesiko alawulwa ngurhulumente. U-Assad ukwachophele uhlengahlengiso kwamanye amashishini ngokwesiko alawulwa ngabarhwebi abasele bemisiwe. Oonyana bolawulo oluphezulu bebesebenzisa unxibelelwano losapho lwabo lwezopolitiko ukungenelela kumashishini abarhwebi bemveli.
Ngelo xesha, kukho amaKristu amaninzi achasene nolawulo kwaye kude nawo onke ama-Alawites axhasayo. Abaninzi base-Alawites bayayichasa ngenxa yokuba bavakalelwa kukuba intsapho yakwa-Assad ithathe amanyathelo ngamagama abo abafuni ukudibanisa nawo-kwaye abazange bazuze.
Ngethemba lentshukumo yoguquko enqumle iinkolo kunye nobuhlanga, urhulumente wazama ukuphinda ayibambe indima yakhe njengomkhuseli wabantu abambalwa-kutsha nje esalatha kwiziqhushumbisi kwikomkhulu laseDamasko njengomsebenzi weal-Qaeda kunye neSunni. Abaphembeleli benguquko bathi urhulumente ngokwakhe watyala iibhombu njengesizathu sokucinezela ngakumbi.
Nokuba yeyiphi na intsusa yohlaselo, kucacile ukuba uAssad kunye norhulumente bagqibe kwelokuba ukuqhuba umzabalazo kwimfazwe yamakhaya lelona themba labo lokufumana iqela elilawulayo, ibutho labantu abaphezulu emkhosini kunye negcuntswana labantu ukuba babambelele kubo.
Ingxaki yolawulo, nangona kunjalo, kukuba ayinamajoni athembekileyo ngokwaneleyo ukwenza uqhushululu ngaxeshanye kwilizwe lonke. Ke ngoko, izama ukuthomalalisa intshukumo ngohlaselo lomkhosi kwizixeko ekujoliswe kuzo, ngelixa isebenzisa abahlaseli kunye nezihange ukoyikisa abaqhankqalazi kwezinye iindawo.
Phantsi kolu xinzelelo, bekunzima kwiiKomiti zoLungelelaniso zeNgingqi-imibutho yotshintsho olululo-ukubeka phambili enye indlela yezopolitiko ecacileyo ezimeleyo kwi-SNC eyandayo yokungenelela. I-Syria ekhohlo incinci kwaye ibuthathaka, yahlulwe phakathi kwemibutho ye-pro-regime kunye namaqela amancinci enguqu anyanzeliswa ukuba asebenze phantsi komhlaba ngenxa yengcinezelo karhulumente.
Iimanyano, ngaphezu koko, bezisoloko zilawulwa ngurhulumente. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, kunye nokwahlula phakathi kobuhlanga, inkolo, isizwe kunye nemimandla yengingqi, abasebenzi abazange bangene ngokuzimeleyo.
Ngelixa abasebenzi kumashishini angundoqo benokuba bathathe inxaxheba kuqhanqalazo, ubutshantliziyo babo benguqu abuzange bufike kwiindawo zokusebenza ngendlela engaguqukiyo okanye kwaphela. Oko kwahluke kakhulu e-Egypt, apho i-revolution yalo nyaka uphelileyo yandulelwa yiminyaka yomzabalazo wabasebenzi, ugwayimbo kunye nomzabalazo wemibutho ekhululekile kulawulo lukarhulumente.
Kubekho uqhanqalazo ngokubanzi kwizixeko ezininzi, kodwa olu ibilugwayimbo lwabahlali, iindawo zokusebenza zivaliwe ecaleni kweevenkile ezincinci kumboniso woqhanqalazo. Imiboniso ibe mbalwa kwidolophu-dolophu yaseDamasko kunye ne-hub yezorhwebo yase-Aleppo, kungekhona nje ngenxa yoxinzelelo olukhulu lwezopolitiko, kodwa ngenxa yokuba amanani oshishino kunye nomgangatho ophakathi baye bathandabuza ukuhlukana nolawulo. Kukwakho ukuqhekeka okugxile kuzo zozibini izixeko, kunye ne-snipers exhonywe phezulu phantse kuso sonke isakhiwo esikhulu.
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I-ADVANCE ye-revolution ixhomekeke ekubeni i-left-wing currents kwi-Local Coordination Committees ingakwazi ukudibanisa intshukumo yabasebenzi enokuthi ibethe ngamandla urhulumente-njengoko abasebenzi base-Egypt benzayo ekugqibeleni banyanzelise ukugxothwa kuka-Hosni Mubarak.
Ukulungelelanisa isenzo esinjalo kwimeko yengcinezelo kunye nemfazwe yamakhaya eqalayo kuya kuba nzima kakhulu, kunjalo. Kodwa ngaphandle kokuba amandla entlalontle yabasebenzi aziswa, ulawulo luya kuzama ukuguqa ukuhlanganiswa okuthandwayo ngokubulala, ukubanjwa, ukuhlushwa kunye nobunzima bezoqoqosho. Kuloo mfazwe yokuxhatshazwa, urhulumente waseSiriya uneenzuzo eziphambili.
Yintoni elandelayo? Imeko ayizinzanga kakhulu kwaye ayiqikeleleki. Ulawulo lunokwahlulwa ngenxa yoxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho kunye nokungakwazi ukutshabalalisa imvukelo. Okanye urhulumente angahlanganisela imfazwe yamakhaya yonke ngenjongo yokubambelela egunyeni. Ukungenelela kwama-Impiriyali kunokuvumela uAssad ukuba azame ukubanga isambatho sobuzwe kwaye azuze inkxaso yokulawula okuqhubekayo.
Kodwa izithuba zenguqu entsha zisekho. Umbuso waseSyria awuzu koyiswa nguMkhosi waMahala waseSyria kungquzulwano lomkhosi, kodwa ngovukelo oluninzi kwimikhosi exhobileyo enokuthi ithintele ingcinezelo kwiindawo eziphambili kwaye ivule indlela yovukelo olutsha. Abaqhankqalazi abathe ngenkalipho baququzelela ngokuchasene nengcinezelo enoburhalarhume banokuwuthatha umzabalazo bawuse kwiifektri kwaye baqokelele imikhosi enokuthi iphazamise urhulumente.
Ujiko olunjalo kubasebenzi ngumbono wenguqu yokwenyani yenguqu eSyria-hayi umanyano nama impiriyali ecetywa yiGhalioun ye-SNC.
UMais Jasser kunye noYusef Khalil bafake isandla kweli nqaku.
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