Karl von UClausewitz, isihlakaniphi sezempi sasePrussia esidumile, saziwa kakhulu nge- aphorism yaso ethi "Impi iwukuqhutshekwa kwenqubomgomo yombuso ngezinye izindlela." Kodwa kwenzekani empini uma ingekho inqubomgomo yombuso ehambisanayo?
Eqinisweni, manje sesiyazi. I-Iraq War 3.0 yaseWashington, i-Operation Inherent Resolve, yilokho okwenzekayo. Ezigabeni zayo zokuqala, ngabuza ngokubhuqa, โYini engase ihambe ngokungahambi kahle?โ Njengoba le mishini ingena enyangeni yayo yesine, impendulo yalowo mbuzo isivele icace bha: cishe yonke into. Kungase kube isikhathi sokubuza, ngakho konke ukungathรญ sina: Yini engase ihambe kahle?
Ukwazi Right from Okubi
Impi yakamuva yaseMelika yethulwa njengomsebenzi wokusiza abantu. Umgomo wokuqhunyiswa kwawo kokuqala kwamabhomu kwakuwukusindisa ama-Yazidis, iqembu abambalwa baseMelika ababeke bezwa ngalo kuze kube yileso sikhathi, ekuqothulweni kohlanga ezandleni ze-Islamic State (IS). Nokho, phakathi namasonto ambalwa, umkhankaso wokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu wawuqhubeka ngokumelene ne-IS kulo lonke elase-Iraq naseSyria โnokuhlangana kwayo kwabazimiseleyoโ kanye namasosha ayi-1,600 ase-US aphansi. Umthambeka oshelelayo? Kwakuyi-Teflon-coated. Cabanga ngalokho okwenzeka njengoba iminyaka eminingana yokukhuphuka kwenkathi yaseVietnam yasekuqaleni kucindezela kusemester.
Futhi ngaleso sikhathi, yini ehamba kahle? Impendulo emfushane: Cishe lutho. I-squint ngempela, kanzima ngempela futhi mhlawumbe "izindaba ezinhle" ukuthi i-IS ayikathathi ukulawula okuningi kwe-Iraq neSiriya, nokuthi i-Baghdad ayizange ilahleke. Lawa mathuba, nokho, ayengenakwenzeka ngisho ngaphandle kokungenelela kwe-U.S.
Futhi kungase kube khona โukunqobaโ okukodwa nje emkhathizwe, nakuba umphumela namanje awukacaci. IWashington ingase "iwine" edolobheni laseKurdish elivinjezelwe yi-Kobane, khona kanye emngceleni waseTurkey. Uma kunjalo, kuzoba a zamangaukunqoba okuqinisekisiwe ukuthi ngeke kufeze lutho olubalulekile. Phela, phakathi nokuqhuma kwamabhomu nokulwa, idolobha selicishe libe khona wabhubhisa. Okufika emqondweni yinkathi yempi yaseVietnam khumbula ngesikhulu saseMelika esingaziwa mayelana nenhloko-dolobha yesifundazwe eyaqhunyiswa ngamabhomu iBen Tre: โKwadingeka ukuba kucekelwe phansi idolobha ukuze kulisindise.โ
Bangaphezu kuka-200,000 XNUMX ababaleki asebebalekile kakade eKobane, abaningi banokungabaza ukuthi bayoke bakwazi ukubuya, ngenxa yomonakalo okhona. I-US ihambe ebuhlungwini obukhulu ukukhomba ukuthi bangaki abalwi be-IS ababulewe yiziteleka zayo lapho. Impela i-464, ngokweqembu elizinze e-U.K. lamalungelo abantu, inombolo ecacile ngendlela ongasolwa ngayo, kodwa akunandaba. Njengoba umlando ubonisa, ukubalwa komzimba kulolu hlobo lwempi kusho okuncane.
Futhi lokho, bakwethu, โkuyizindaba ezinhle.โ Manje, bambelela, ngoba nazi izindaba ezimbi.
Leyo Coalition
UMnyango Wezwe waseMelika izinhlu 60 ababambiqhaza ku ubumbano amazwe asekela imizamo ye-U.S. ngokumelene ne-Islamic State. Amaningi alawo mazwe (iSomalia, i-Iceland, iCroatia, neTaiwan, phakathi kwawo) awakaze aphinde azwakale ngaphandle kwamahholo aseFoggy Bottom. Abukho ubufakazi bokuthi โama-alliesโ aseMelika aseMelika afana neSaudi Arabia, Qatar, kanye ne-United Arab Emirates, kabani ngezimali ikade isize amaqembu amavukelambuso aseSyria, okuhlanganisa ne-IS, futhi ukuhlanganyela kwawo kusenesikhathi ekuhlaseleni okumbalwa kwasemoyeni okwabizwa ngokuthi ukunqoba, asandiza.
Njengoba zingekho izizwe ezimbalwa ezivame ukubonakala emaqenjini epolitiki ezwe laseMelika (iCanada, amaBrits, ama-Aussies, futhi ngokwandayo kulezi zinsuku, amaFulentshi), lokhu kungcola kwamazwe ngamazwe kuguquke ngokushesha kwaba konakele eWashington. Okubi nakakhulu, amazwe afana neTurkey okungenzeka ukuthi empeleni abambe iqhaza elibalulekile ekunqobeni i-Islamic State kubonakala sengathi ahlezi ngaphandle. Naphezu kwendlela okuyiyo kubika e-US, impi entsha yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi ibukeka, emazweni amaningi, njengelinye icala le-American unilateralism, elidlala ngqo emlandweni we-Islamic radical.
I-Iraqi Unity
Isixazululo sokugcina sezepolitiki sokulwa nempi e-Iraq, uhulumeni wase-Iraq "obandakanya wonke umuntu". iyahlangana AmaShia, amaSunni, namaKurds, awazange athathe isikhathi nakancane ukuxokozela. Yize uNdunankulu u-Haider al-Abadi ekhethe umSunni ukuthi ahole uMnyango Wezokuvikela wezwe futhi aqondise a yawa Ibutho lase-Iraqi, ukukhetha kwakhe okukhulu kakhulu kwakungenxa UNgqongqoshe Wezangaphakathi. Wakhetha u-Mohammed Ghabban, usopolitiki wamaShia owaziwa kancane owavele waba ngumfelandawonye ne-Badr Organization.
Noma bembalwa e-US abakhumbula abantu bakwa-Badr, wonke amaSunni e-Iraq ayakwenza lokho. Ngesikhathi sokubusa kwaseMelika, amasosha ase-Badr agijimela amaqembu abulalayo adume kabi, ngemuva kokungena eMnyangweni Wezangaphakathi ofanayo ahamba nawo manje. Ukuphakama komholi we-Badr ukuze - kumaSunni - mhlawumbe isikhundla sekhabhinethi esibaluleke kakhulu kunazo zonke simele izipikili ezimbalwa ebhokisini lobunye base-Iraq. Kuphinde kuhambisane nethonya elikhulayo le Amasosha eShia uhulumeni wase-Baghdad ucele ukuvikela inhloko-dolobha ngesikhathi lapho ibutho lase-Iraq lingakwazi ukwenza umsebenzi.
Lawo masosha asebenzise lesi simo njengezaba zokuhlanganisa umkhankaso ububi ngokumelene namaSunni abamaka ngokuthi โIS,โ njengase-Iraq War 2.0 kakhulu U-Sunni wabulawa ngokushesha zabizwa ngokuthi โal-Qaeda.โ Ngaphezu kwalokho, amasosha ase-Iraq ane wenqabile ukuthi bayeke ukuqhulula amabhomu nokwenza iziteleka zomoya ezindaweni ezihlala amaSunni nakuba undunankulu ethembise ukuthi bazokwenza lokho. Lokho kwenza i-al-Abadi ibukeke ingasebenzi futhi ingenangqondo. Isibonelo? Kuleli sonto, i-Iraq iqambe kabusha idolobha osebeni loMfula i-Euphrates ukukhombisa ukunqoba kwe-IS. I-Jurf al-Sakhar, noma โibhange elinamatshe,โ yaba yi-Jurf al-Nasr, noma โibhange lokunqoba.โ Kodwa-ke, idolobha elake laba ngamaSunni manje selingenalutho ngezakhamuzi zalo ezingu-80,000, futhi isakhiwo ngemva kwesakhiwo sehliswe yiziteleka zomoya, ukuqhuma kwamabhomu, nokudubula kwezikhali okuhlanganiswe amasosha ase-Badr.
Phakathi naleso sikhathi, iWashington ibambelele ku- i-trope ekhohlisayo kakhulu ye-Iraq War 2.0: isimangalo sokuthi I-Anbar Awakening - Isu lebutho laseMelika lokuhlomisa izizwe zamaSunni futhi lizilethe e-Iraq entsha ngenkathi lixosha i-al-Qaeda-in-Iraq ("elidala" IS) - lasebenza phansi ngempela. Njengamanje, leli yiqiniso eliyisisekelo lezepolitiki zaseMelika. Ukwehluleka okwalandela, vele, kwakuyiphutha lalabo ababengama-Iraqis, ikakhulukazi uhulumeni wamaShia eBaghdad owangcolisa konke okuhle okwenziwe ngamasosha aseMelika. Ngemva kokuzikhohlisa ekukholelweni le nganekwane, iWashington manje inethemba lokuthi hlanganisa kabusha I-Anbar Awakening futhi ilethe amaSunni amadala afanayo e-Iraq entsha, ngenkathi ixosha i-IS (i-al-Qaeda โentshaโ).
Ukuze uzikholise ukuthi lokhu kuzosebenza, kufanele ushaye indiva isimo sikahulumeni wase-Baghdad futhi ukholelwe ukuthi i-Iraqi Sunni ayinalo inkumbulo yokushiywa yi-US okokuqala ngqa. Okufika emqondweni kungowomhlaziyi oyedwa buka yempi yamanje: uma ekuqaleni singaphumeleli, yenza okufanayo kanzima, ngobuchwepheshe obungcono, futhi ngezindleko ezinkulu.
Ukuqonda ukuthi amaSunni angeke akhohliswe kabili yi-con efanayo, uMnyango Wezwe manje ukudlala phezulu umqondo wokwakha ibutho lezempi elisha, โunogada wesizweโ wamaSunni. Cabanga ngalokhu njengohlelo lokusekelayo oluvela esihogweni. Lawa mayunithi angeke abe lutho ngaphandle kokuthi aqanjwe kabusha ngamasosha amaSunni futhi angeke ahlanganiswe neButho Lase-Iraq. Kunalokho, babezohlala endaweni yamaSunni ngaphansi komyalo wabaholi bendawo. Kakhulu ubumbano.
Futhi lapho kulele esinye isici esingakwazi-ukuhamba-kwesokudla sesu lase-U.S.
Ukungahlangani Kwamasu
Amabutho ase-Iraq okungenzeka aqondaniswe ne-Islamic State ahlanganisa ibutho lase-Iraqi, amasosha aseShia, amanye amasosha esizwe samaSunni, amaKurdish peshmerga, nama-Irani. Lawa maqembu, kahle kakhulu, athintana kuphela ngezikhathi ezithile, futhi awavamile ukuxhumana nhlobo. Ngamunye unawo imigomo yakho, ngokungqubuzana nalawo amanye amaqembu. Nokho bamele ukubumbana uma kuqhathaniswa nengxubevange yabalwi eSyria, abahlale belungele ukuhlabana njengokuhlasela umbuso kaBashar al-Assad kanye/noma i-IS.
IWashington ngokuvamile yenza sengathi lezi zingubo ezihlukahlukene ezingqubuzanayo zingahlanganiswa emingceleni njengezicucu eziningi ze-chess. UMongameli u-Obama, nokho, akayena u-Dwight Eisenhower nge-D-Day e-Normandy ekhomba amaNgisi emgomweni owodwa, abaseCanada kwenye, ekugcineni baxhumane nokumelana namaFrance endleleni eya enkululekweni yaseParis. Ngokwesibonelo, i Ama-Irani futhi amasosha aseShia ngeke aze enze sengathi alandela imiyalo yaseMelika, kuyilapho ipolitiki yasekhaya yase-U.S ibeka inselele kunoma yimiphi imizamo yokuphatha ka-Obama yokuxhumanisa nama-Irani. Uma bekufanele ukhethe isizathu esisodwa sokuthi kungani, ekugcineni, i-US kuzomele ihoxe e-Iraq futhi, noma inikele ingxenye esentshonalanga yezwe ku-IS, noma ibeke amabhuzu amaningi phansi, udinga ukubheka. hhayi ngaphezu kokungahlangani kwamasu โkwemifelandawonyeโ ehlukene ehlukene e-Iraq, eSyria nasemhlabeni jikelele.
I-Islamic State
Ngokungafani ne-U.S., i-Islamic State inesu elihlangene futhi inokuqala. Amasosha ayo abambe ngempumelelo futhi aphathe indawo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Lapho bebhekene namandla omoya abakwazi ukumelana, njengasesidlangalaleni sase-Iraq Idamu laseMosul ngo-August, abalwi bayo, ngendlela yakudala yamavukela-mbuso, bahlehla futhi bahlanganisa kabusha. Le nhlangano yenza umkhankaso ononya ngempela wezinhliziyo nezingqondo, ukubulala AmaSunni abaphikisana nawo kanye namaShia abawathumbayo. Kwesinye isigameko esihlasimulisa umzimba, i-IS yabulawa 300 amaSunni baphonsa imizimba yabo phansi emthonjeni. Iphinde yenza muva nje intuthuko ebalulekilengasenhloko-dolobha yamaKurdish, i-Erbil, ihlehlisa izinzuzo zangaphambili ze-peshmerga. Abaholi be-IS bathumela ngempumelelo eyabo inguqulo yeziteleka zomoya - amabhomu azibulale - enhliziyweni ye-Baghdad futhi sebevele sebededele izibhamu zokuqala enhloko-dolobha. IGreen Zone, ikhaya likahulumeni wase-Iraqi kanye neNxusa laseMelika, ukuze baziphathe kahle.
Imithombo emikhulu yezimali ye-IS, amafutha ashushumbisiwe futhi Isihlengo izinkokhelo, zihlala zivikelekile ngokunengqondo, nakuba umkhankaso wokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu e-U.S. kanye nokwehla kwamanani kawoyela omhlaba kuye kwanciphisa ngokuphawulekayo imali engenayo kawoyela. Ukunyakaza kuyaqhubeka ukuqasha ngokuphawulekayo ngempumelelo kokubili ngaphakathi nangaphandle kweMpumalanga Ephakathi. Konke ukuhlasela kwaseMelika, zonke izenzo ezikhuphukayo, zonke izitatimende ezikhukhumezayo mayelana nezinsongo zobuphekula ziqinisekisa i-IS ezilalelini zayo eziyinhloko zamaSulumane.
Izinto azihambi kahle naseSyria. I-Islamic State izuza ekungeneni kwamandla okudalwe umzamo wesikhathi eside wombuso we-Assad wokucindezela ukuvukela kwabantu bomdabu baseSunni. Amasosha axhumene ne-Al-Qaeda asanda kweqa izindawo ezibalulekile ezisenyakatho ebezilawulwa amaqembu amavukelambuso aseSyria asekelwa yi-US futhi futhi, njengase-Iraq, ithunyelwe Izikhali zase-U.S. sezifike ezandleni zontamolukhuni. Akukho okuhambe kahle Amathemba aseMelika ukuthi amaqembu aseSyria amaphakathi azohlinzeka ngosizo olubalulekile kunoma yiliphi ikusasa ongalicabanga empini ebanzi yokulwa ne-IS.
Inkinga kuPotomac
Ngenkathi isu laseMelika lingase lintuleke enkundleni yempi, liyaphila futhi liphilile ePentagon. Umbiko ku Daily Beast, ecaphuna a ukuvuza okukhulu, isanda kukwenza kwacaca ukuthi i-Pentagon brass "iyacikeka ngentambo emfushane i-White House ewafake kuyo." Abaholi abaphezulu bagxeka inqubo yokuthatha izinqumo zempi, ebhekwe nguMeluleki Wezokuphepha Kuzwelonke uSusan Rice, "njengohlanya futhi othathekile." UNobhala Wezokuvikela u-Chuck Hagel ubhale ukuputshuka ngokushesha memo kuRice isixwayiso sokuthi isu likamongameli waseSyria lase livele lidabukile ngenxa yenkungu yalo mayelana nemvelo yokuphikisana kwayo ne-Assad futhi ngoba alinawo "umdlalo wokugcina." Ngaleso sikhathi, "ingqondo" yezempi abasekeli seziqalile ukukhuluma - izithunzi zaseVietnam - mayelana "no-Obama i-quagmire. "
USihlalo Wama-Joint Chiefs uGeneral Martin Dempsey usekhulume kabili esidlangalaleni eveza ukungeneliseki kwakhe ngenqubomgomo ye-White House. NgoSepthemba uthe kuzoba njalo thatha Amasosha aphansi angu-12,000 kuya kwangu-15,000 ukuze alandele i-Islamic State. Ngenyanga edlule, yena ukuphakanyiswa ukuthi amasosha aphansi aseMelika angase, esikhathini esizayo, adingeke ukulwa ne-IS. Lezo zitatimende zihluke kakhulu nokugcizelela kuka-Obama ukuthi akusoze kwaba khona amasosha ase-US kule mpi.
Kwenye inselele eqondile, kulokhu ohlelweni lokudala lawo mayunithi Onogada Besizwe BamaSunni, uDempsey wabeka owakhe. izimo: akukho kuqeqeshwa nokweluleka izizwe kuzoqala kuze kube yilapho uhulumeni wase-Iraqi evuma ukuhlomisa amayunithi ngokwawo - umphumela ongenakwenzeka. Khonamanjalo, naphezu kokuthi i-White House ibeka phambili ekuqeqesheni ibutho elisha laseSyria elilinganiselwe lama-5,000 fighters, abaholi abakhulu bezempi abakakakwazi khetha isikhulu ukuqhubekisela phambili inqubo yokuhlola okufanele ikhiphe ukhula oluncane kunamavukela-mbuso amaphakathi.
Sekukonke, isimo sebutho lezempi esisondelene kakhulu nesikhumbuza ngokwenqaba kukaMacArthur uhambise ngentando kaMongameli uHarry Truman yezepolitiki phakathi neMpi YaseKorea. Kodwa ungabambi umoya wakho ngokuxoshwa kuka-Trumanesque kuka-Dempsey noma nini maduze. Okwamanje, izinto ezibonwa yiPentagon zibonakala zibheke kumuntu owile, okungenzeka ukuthi uSusan Rice, osondelene kakhulu nomongameli.
IPentagon ibeke phansi amakhadi ayo futhi acace ngokwanele: I-White House iyiphathi kabi impi. Futhi umlayezo wayo ucace nakakhulu: uma kubhekwa ukwenqaba ukucabangela ukuthumela lawo mabhuzu athinta phansi, i-Operation Inherent Resolve izohluleka. Futhi lapho lokho kwenzeka, ungasisoli; sikuxwayisile.
Ngeke ngiphinde
Amasosha aseMelika aphuma eMpini yaseVietnam efunga into eyodwa: lapho iWashington izofuna umuntu ozomsola, ngeke iphinde isale iphethe isikhwama. Ngokusho kwesikole esivelele sokucabanga komlando ngaphakathi kwePentagon, amasosha akwenza ngempumelelo lokho ayecelwe ukuba akwenze eVietnam, kodwa athola ukuthi ukuntuleka kwesu lomhlaba wonke kanye nokuphatha ngokweqile okuvela kubaholi bezepolitiki baseMelika kwenza kubonakale sengathi amasosha ayehlulekile. Lokhu kwakhula kusuka enganekwaneni yesikhathi sempi kwaba ukucabanga kwamasu e-Pentagon futhi kwabonakala kukho kokubili Imfundiso kaPowell futhi Imfundiso ye-Weinberger. Inguqulo emfushane yalokho kucabanga idinga ukuthi osopolitiki benze izinqumo ezicatshangelwayo zokuthi amasosha kufanele alwe nini, kuphi, futhi kungani. Lapho kukhethwa impi, kufanele bavumele amasosha ukuba angene ngamandla amakhulu, anqobe, futhi abuyele ekhaya.
Umbono usebenze cishe kahle kakhulu, wafinyelela umvuthwandaba wawo e-Iraq War 1.0, i-Operation Desert Storm. Emiqondweni yosopolitiki kusukela kumongameli uGeorge H.W. Bush kwehle, lokho "kunqoba" kwasusa isileti saseVietnam, kuphela kwamisa yonke inhlekelele eyayizolandela kusukela ezimpini zaseBush 43 kuya ezitelekeni zomoya zika-Obama namuhla. Akudingeki ube nebhola lekristalu ukuze ubone okubhaliwe esihlabathini e-Iraq naseSyria. Amasosha angakwazi kakade ukuzwa ukwehluleka okuzayo okulenga njenge-miasma phezu kweWashington.
Ngaphakathi noma ngaphandle, amabhuzu noma cha, noma ngabe amaphutha kanye nobuwula bawo, labo abaqhuba iPentagon kanye nebutho lase-US sebevele bekhankasa ngamasu okunqoba okungenani impi eyodwa: lapho i-Iraq 3.0 iwa, njengoba izokwenza, ngeke lawo ayelenga ukuze ome. Kuhlu olufushane kakhulu lwalokho okungahamba kahle, imali ehlakaniphile iku-Pentagon ephuma enqobile - kodwa kuphela eWashington, hhayi eMpumalanga Ephakathi.
UPeter Van Buren washaya impempe ngokuchithwa koMnyango Wezwe kanye nokungaphathi kahle ngesikhathi kwakhiwa kabusha i-Iraqi encwadini yakhe yokuqala, Besiqonde Kahle: Ukuthi Ngisize Kanjani Ukulahlekelwa Impi Yezinhliziyo Nezingqondo Zabantu Base-Iraq. A TomDispatch Njalo, ubhala ngezenzakalo zamanje kubhulogi yakhe, Besisho Kahle. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi Izipoki zika-Tom Joad: Indaba ye-#99Percent.
Lesi sihloko sivele okokuqala ku-TomDispatch.com, i-weblog ye-Nation Institute, enikeza ukugeleza okuqhubekayo kweminye imithombo, izindaba, kanye nemibono evela ku-Tom Engelhardt, umhleli wesikhathi eside ekushicileleni, umsunguli we-American Empire Project, umbhali we Ukuphela KweMasiko Okunqoba, njengenoveli, Izinsuku Zokugcina Zokushicilela. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi I-Shadow Government: Ukuqapha, Impi Yezimfihlo, ne-Global Security State ezweni elilodwa elinamandla (Izincwadi zeHaymarket).
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
Nikela