Ungayithukutheli imininingwane yesivumelwano senuzi sikaJulayi phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran. Okubalulekile ukuthi izibalo zamandla eMpumalanga Ephakathi zisanda kushintsha ngezindlela eziphawulekayo.
UWashington noTehran bamemezele isivumelwano sabo senuzi ngoJulayi 14 futhi yebo, eminye imininingwane isahlukaniswa. Impela abaphathi baka-Obama baxoxisane neChina, iRussia, iGreat Britain, iFrance neJalimane, okusho ukuthi i-Iran nabanye ohulumeni abahlanu kumele bagunyaze imininingwane enamakhasi ayi-159 โUhlelo Lwesenzo Oluphelele Oluhlangene.โ I-UN, nayo obekumele isayine isivumelwano, isivele isivele kuvunyelwene ukuthatha izinyathelo zokuqeda unswinyo olubhekiswe e-Iran.
Uma sonke singakabi ochwepheshe be-insta kuma-centrifuges kanye nezilinganiso zokucebisa, abezindaba bazoqinisekisa ukuthi ezinyangeni ezimbili ezizayo - lapho iCongress izophikisana futhi ilinganise ukugunyaza isivumelwano - sizoba njalo. Kuzodingidwa amasu okuqinisekisa. Ama-Israyeli azothi i-apocalypse isiseduze. Futhi wonke umuntu oyinoma ngubani uzofunga esibhakabhakeni ukuthi usathane unemininingwane. Ngemibukiso yezingxoxo yangeSonto, oklebe bazophikisana ngokungapheli mayelana nephupho elibi elizayo, kanye nokuxega kwamadolo kukamongameli kanye โokukhohlisayoโ Unobhala Wezwe, uJohn Kerry. (Nokho-ke, akekho oqaphelayo ozobuza ukuthi kungani izinqumo zikamongameli ezedlule zokwethula noma ukuqhubeka nezimpi eMpumalanga Ephakathi zingamukelwanga okungenani ngohlobo olufanayo lokungabaza njengemizamo yakhe yamanje yokunqanda eyodwa.)
Kunamaphuzu amabili abalulekile okufanele uwasuse kuzo zonke izinkulumo ezithukuthele ezizayo: okokuqala, akukho lutho lwalokhu futhi okwesibili, udeveli akekho emininingwaneni, nakuba engase avele kulezo zinhlelo zezinkulumo zangeSonto.
Nakhu okubaluleke kakhulu: ngesikhathi esibalulekile futhi ngaphandle kokudutshulwa, i-United States ne-Iran sezifike endaweni yoshintsho enkathini yobutha obusobala. Isivumelwano senuzi sibophezela lezi zizwe zombili eminyakeni yokuxoxisana futhi sishiya umnyango uvulekele ebuhlotsheni obugcwele kakhulu. Ukuqonda ukuthi lokho kubaluleke kangakanani kudinga ukubheka emuva.
Umlando Osheshayo Wobudlelwano base-US-Iranian
Inguqulo emfushane: ubudlelwano bebubi cishe iminyaka engamashumi amane. A kancane inguqulo ende Nokho, yayizoqala ngo-1953 lapho i-CIA isiza ukuhlela ukuketula umbuso ukuze kuketulwe undunankulu wase-Iran okhethwe ngokwentando yeningi, u-Mohammad Mosaddegh. Umholi wezwe - uhlobo nje lwensizwa izikhulu zase-US ezike zaphupha ngayo kusukela ama-ayatollah athatha izintambo ngo-1979 - uMosaddegh wayefuna ukwenza imboni kawoyela yase-Iran ibe izwe. Lokho, ngaleso sikhathi, kwakuyinto engekho ngokuphelele eWashington naseLondon. Ngakho kwadingeka ahambe.
Esikhundleni sakhe, uWashington ufake umholi wonodoli ofaneleka kakhulu kuma-republic amabhanana, u-Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. I-US yamsiza ekugcineni ibutho lamaphoyisa eliyimfihlo, i-Savak, ayeqondise ngqo kubaphikisi bakhe bezombusazwe, bentando yeningi nokunye, kuhlanganise nalabo ababesekela uhlobo lwesisekelo samaSulumane esasingajwayelekile eNtshonalanga ngaleso sikhathi. UWashington wawadla uwoyela we-Shah futhi, ngokuphindaphindiwe, wamdayisela izikhali zesimanje azithakathayo. Ngawo-1970, i-US iphinde yahlinzeka ngophethiloli wenuzi kanye nobuchwepheshe be-reactor e-Iran kubo akhela phezu UMongameli uDwight Eisenhower โAma-athomu Okuthulaโ uhlelo, olwaqala uhlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran ngo-1957.
Ngo-1979, ngemva kwezinyanga zemibhikisho nokubona isiphetho sakhe emigwaqweni yaseTehran, uShah wabaleka. Umholi wezenkolo u-Ayatollah Khomeini wabuya ekudingisweni ukuze alawule isizwe kulokho okwaziwa ngele-Islamic Revolution. "Abafundi" base-Iran badlulise amashumi eminyaka entukuthelo emelene neMelika phezu kuka-Shah kanye namaphoyisa akhe omshoshaphansi ekuthatheni iNxusa leNxusa laseMelika eTehran. Esimweni lapho abantu baseMelika abambalwa beminyaka ethile okungenzeka basikhohlwe, izisebenzi zaseMelika ezingama-52 zabanjwa lapho izinyanga ezingaba ngu-15.
Ukuziphindiselela, i-US, phakathi kwezinye izinto, izosiza u-autocrat wase-Iraq uSaddam Hussein (uyamkhumbula?) empini yakhe ne-Iran ngeminyaka yawo-1980, kwathi ngo-1988, umkhumbi-mcibisholo oqondisiwe waseMelika ePersian Gulf uzodubula phansi i-Iran Air. indiza, yabulala bonke abantu abangu-290 ababekumkhumbi. (Washington bathi kwakungengozi.) Ngo-2003, lapho i-Iran ifinyelela eWashington, ngemva kokuphumelela kwezempi yaseMelika e-Afghanistan, uMongameli uGeorge W. Bush wamemezela lelo zwe ingxenye โye-Axis of Evil.โ
I-Iran kamuva yaxhasa ngezimali, yaqeqesha, futhi yasiza ekuholeni ukuvukela umbuso kwamaShiite ngokumelene ne-United States e-Iraq. Ngemfashini ye-tit-for-tat, amabutho ase-US agasele ihhovisi lenxusa lase-Iran lapho futhi labopha abasebenzi abambalwa. Njengoba iWashington ihoxisa kancane amasosha ayo kulelo zwe, i-Iran yandisa ukwesekwa kwayo kubaholi be-pro-Tehran eBaghdad. Lapho uhlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran lukhula, i-US yahlasela amakhompyutha ayo ngohlelo olungayilungele ikhompuyutha, yethula lokho okwakukhona i-cyberwar yokuqala emlandweni. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, iWashington yafaka unswinyo lwezomnotho ezweni kanye nomkhakha walo obalulekile wokukhiqiza amandla.
Ngamafuphi, kule minyaka engu-36 edlule, ubudlelwano base-US-Iranian bebunobutha, buphikisana, bungenazithelo, futhi ngokuvamile bungenangqondo. Alikho izwe elibonakala lihlomulile, njengoba womabili aqhubeka ezibophezele ekulweni.
I-Iran Ascendant
Naphezu kwemizamo emihle kakhulu ye-United States, i-Iran manje isinamandla amakhulu eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Futhi esukuma. (IWashington ihlala enye ingxenye yaleyo โco.โ)
Enye gxuma ngokushesha emlandweni okhohliwe kakhulu: i-US yakhubeka enkathini yangemva kwe-9/11 ngokuhlasela okubili okwaqeda ngobunono izitha ezibalulekile ze-Iran emingceleni yayo esempumalanga nesentshonalanga - uSaddam Hussein e-Iraq kanye neTaliban e-Afghanistan. (Okokuqala, yiqiniso, kuhambe kahle; lokhu kwakamuva ukwenza kangcono kulezi zinsuku, nakuba kungenakwenzeka ukuthi kusabise i-Iran isikhathi esithile.) Njengoba lezo zimpi zaziqhubeka zopha ngaphandle kokunqoba okwakuthenjisiwe, ukukhathala kwezempi kweMelika kwaqeda isifiso sokuphatha kukaBush sokuteleka kwezempi ngokumelene ne-Iran. Yeqa cishe iminyaka eyishumi ngaphambili futhi iWashington manje isisekela buthule okungenani eminye yemizamo yezempi yalelo zwe e-Iraq ngokumelene ne-Islamic State. Ukuphatha kuka-Obama kubukeka sengathi okungenani kushiye phansi ukubheka kwelinye icala ngenkathi iTehran iqinisekisa ukuthi izoba nombuso wopopayi eBaghdad. Emasu ayo ahluleka kakhulu eYemen, Lebanon naseSyria, iWashington isinxuse abantu base-Irani ukuthi babambe iqhaza eliphambili kulezo zindawo. Banayo.
Futhi lokho kuklwebha kuphela ukukhuphuka okusha kwe-Iranian esifundeni. Ngaphandle komonakalo owenziwe unswinyo lwezomnotho oluholwa yi-US, amandla angempela e-Iran asekhaya. Cishe iyisizwe samaSulumane esizinze kunazo zonke eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Sekuyizinkulungwane zeminyaka ikhona phakathi kwemingcele yayo yamanje. Icishe ihluke ngokuphelele ngokobuhlanga, ngokwenkolo, ngokwamasiko, nangokolimi, kanye namadlanzana ayo ngokuqhathaniswa. isilawuli. Nakuba lisabuswa ingxenye enkulu yabefundisi balo, izwe nokho liye labhekana nochungechunge lwezinguquko ezikhulayo zentando yeningi kusukela ngoguquko lwango-1979. Okubaluleke kakhulu, ngokungafani nazo zonke ezinye izizwe zaseMpumalanga Ephakathi, abaholi base-Iran ababusi ngokwesaba uguquko lwamaSulumane. Bebevele benayo.
Kungani i-Iran Ingabi Nazo Izikhali Zenuzi
Manje, mayelana nalawo nukes. Kungadingeka umuntu oyimpumputhe ebumnyameni ukuthi angaboni iqiniso elilodwa elisobala ngeGreater Middle East: imibuso i-US ephikisana nayo ivame ukuzithola iqhuma isiphithiphithi lapho isilahlekelwe izinhlelo zayo zenuzi. Abakwa-Israel baluchithile uhlelo lukaSaddam njengoba benza olwaseSyria emoyeni. ILibya kaMuammar Qaddafi yehle kakhulu ngenxa yoshintsho lombuso ogqugquzelwe yiMelika/NATO ngemuva kokudela ngokuzithandela izifiso zakhe zenuzi. Ngasikhathi sinye, akekho eTehran ongaphuthelwa ukuthi ubulungu beNorth Korea ekilabhini yokushintsha umbuso abuzange buvuselelwe kanjani lapho lelo zwe selingene ngezikhali zenuzi. Cabangela lezo zizathu ezinhle zokuthi i-Iran yakhe uhlelo oluqinile lwezikhali zenuzi - futhi ingaluyeki ngokuphelele.
Nakuba, kusukela ngo-2002, iWashington ingazange ithathe usuku ekugijimeni kwayo e-Iran, akulona kuphela izwe abefundisi abesabayo. Banesiqiniseko sokuthi u-Israyeli, ngezikhali zenuzi ezingaziwa kodwa zangempela, uyakwazi futhi ngelinye ilanga angase azimisele ukuletha isiteleka ngemicibisholo, indiza, noma. owasemanzini.
Manje, nansi indida eyengeziwe: Ama-sabers aseMelika kanye nama-nukes akwa-Israel nawo achaza ukuthi kungani i-Iran izohlale iyizwe elinganqamuki lenuzi - eliphethe iningi noma bonke ubuchwepheshe nezinto ezidingekayo ukwenza isikhali esinjalo, kodwa ikhethe ukungathathi izinyathelo zokugcina. . Ukuthi izwe liseduze kangakanani nokuba nesikhali senuzi esisebenzayo nganoma yisiphi isikhathi kubizwa ngokuthi โisikhathi sokugqashuka.โ Uma i-Iran ibingase isondele kakhulu, ngesikhathi esifushane kakhulu, noma empeleni ihambe ngokwenuzi, ukuhlasela okubhubhisayo kuka-Israyeli kanye/noma i-United States bekungaba into engenakugwenywa. I-Iran ayiwona umphakathi womhlaba wesithathu. Izindawo zayo zasemadolobheni kanye nengqalasizinda ziyizinhlobo zezinto imikhankaso yokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu eklanyelwe ukuphephula. Ngakho-ke biza uhlelo lwenuzi lwase-Iran njengomdlalo wenkukhu, kodwa lowo bonke abadlali abahilelekile bahlale bazi ukuthi ubani ozocwayiza kuqala.
I-US-Iran Nuclear Accord
Ngakho-ke uma i-Iran ibingeke ibe amandla enuzi eqiniso futhi uma umhlaba usuhlale ne-Iran njengezwe eliwumngcele isikhathi esithile manje, ingabe isivumelwano sikaJulayi sinendaba?
Kunezimpendulo ezimbili zalowo mbuzo: ayikwenzi futhi iyakwenza.
Akunandaba ngempela ngoba isivumelwano sishintsha kancane phansi. Uma izinhlinzeko zesivumelwano zisetshenziswa ngendlela esiziqonda ngayo njengamanje, ngaphandle kokukopela, i-Iran izosuka kancane kancane ezinyangeni ezimbili kuya kwezintathu. Phuma isikhathi ukuya onyakeni noma ngaphezulu. I-Iran ayinawo ama-nukes manje, ibingeke ibe nama-nukes ukube bekungekho sivumelwano, futhi ngeke ibe nama-nukes ngokuvumelana. Ngamanye amazwi, isivumelwano saseVienna saziqeda ngempumelelo izikhali zokucekela phansi okukhulu ezingakaze zibe khona.
Kunendaba ngempela ngoba, ngokokuqala ngqa emashumini eminyaka, imibuso emibili emikhulu eMpumalanga Ephakathi ivule umnyango wobudlelwano. Ngaphandle kwesembozo sezepolitiki sesivumelwano, i-White House ayisoze yacabanga ukuthatha isinyathelo sesibili esiya phambili.
Kuyintuthuko ngoba ngakho i-US ne-Iran bavuma izintshisekelo ezabiwe okokuqala ngqa, njengoba bebona ukuqhubeka kwabo. izingxabano eSyria, Yemen, nakwezinye izindawo. Yileyo ndlela izitha ezisebenzisana ngayo: awudingi ukwenza amadili afana nesivumelwano sikaJulayi nabangane bakho. Ngempela, incazelo kaMongameli Obama yokuthi isivumelwano sizokwenziwa kanjani - sisekelwe yokuqinisekisa, hhayi ukwethemba โ kumelela ukukhethwa kwamagama okunembayo. Kubhekiselwa kuMongameli uRonald Reagan, osebenzise inkulumo ethi โthemba kodwa uqinisekiseโ ngo-1987 lapho esayina iSivumelwano Samasosha Enuzi Aphakathi NabaseRussia.
Isivumelwano safinyelelwa ngendlela yasesikoleni esidala, ngokuhlala etafuleni izinyanga eziningi nokuxoxisana. Osopolitiki bathintana nochwepheshe. Abesilisa nabesifazane ababegqoke amasudi, abangawugqokile umfaniswano, babekhuluma kakhulu. Inqubo, mhlawumbe engaziwa esizukulwaneni se-post-9/11 esiphakanyiswe ku- machismo elithi โungabe unathi noma umelene nathi,โ kubizwa ngokuthi ukuyekethisa. Kuyingxenye ebalulekile yekhono eliya ngokuya lingajwayelekile kubantu baseMelika: idiplomacy. Umgomo awukona ukunqoba isitha, ukuthola izilungiso ezisheshayo, ukuxazulula zonke izinkinga zamazwe amabili, noma ukuzuza ukukhululwa kwe ezine AmaMelika agcinwe e-Iran. Umgomo uwukuthola isixazululo esivumelanayo senkinga ethile. Ubuhlakani obunjalo bombuso bukhombisa uhlobo lobuhlakani benqubomgomo yezangaphandle abavoti baseMelika abavamisile ukubona ukusetshenziswa kusukela uBarack Obama aklonyeliswa ngendondo yeNobel Peace Prize (2009).Cuba kube okuhlukile).
Konke Kumayelana Nemali
Ngenkathi i-diplomacy ilethe i-United States ne-Iran kuleli qophelo, ukheshi iyona ezokhulisa futhi igcine ubudlelwano.
Iran, kanye Okwesine ngobukhulu Izinqolobane zikawoyela ongahluziwe ezifakazelwe kanye nendawo yesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni, isilungele ukuqala ukudayiswa ezimakethe zomhlaba ngokushesha nje uma unswinyo selunyukile. Intsha yakhona kubikwa ukuthi ilangazelela ukusebenzelana okukhulu namazwe aseNtshonalanga. Ukwesulwa kwenswinyo kuzovumela amabhizinisi ase-Irani ukuthi afinyelele enhlokodolobha yomhlaba kanye namabhizinisi angaphandle ukufinyelela ezimakethe zezentengiselwano zase-Iranian ezilambile.
Kusukela ngo-November 2014, amaShayina, isibonelo, kakade Kabili ukutshalwa kwezimali kwabo e-Iran. Izinkampani zaseYurophu, okubalwa kuzo iShell nePeugeot, sezibambe iqhaza izingxoxo nezikhulu zase-Iran. Apple ixhumana nabasabalalisi base-Iranian. IJalimane yathumela ithimba lezohwebo eTehran. Izikhangiso zezimoto zase-Europe kanye nezimpahla zikanokusho seziqala ukuvela kabusha enhlokodolobha yase-Iran. Kuzodingeka kutholwe ubuchwepheshe nolwazi lwangaphandle olubiza amakhulu ezigidigidi zamaRandi uma izwe lizobuyekeza uwoyela negesi yemvelo. ingqalasizinda. Izindiza zayo eziningi zinamashumi eminyaka ubudala futhi zidinga ukushintshwa. Izinkampani zezindiza e-Dubai zengeza ngokushesha imizila emisha yase-Iran ukuhlangabezana nesidingo esikhulayo. Imali izogeleza. Ngemuva kwalokho, kuzoba nzima kakhulu oklebe baseWashington, Tel Aviv, noma eRiyadh ukuthi babuyisele umuthi wokuxubha eshubhuni, yingakho uzwa ukuklabalasa nokugedla kwamazinyo manje.
Ukwesaba Kwangempela kwama-Israyeli namaSaudis
I-Israel noma amaSaudi awakaze alindele ngempela ukuhwebelana ngama-missile volleys ne-Iran ehlome ngezikhali zenuzi, noma okunye ukuphikisa kwabo okuyinhloko esivumelwaneni kubambe amanzi amaningi. Abagxeki bathi isivumelwano sizohlala kuphela iminyaka 10. (Izinhlinzeko ezibalulekile zikhula eminyakeni engaphezu kweyi-10, bese ziyancipha.) Ukushiya eceleni ukuthi ishumi leminyaka liyimpilo yonke kwezombusazwe, le ndlela yokucabanga iphinde icabange ukuthi, njengoba ikhalenda lidlulela eminyakeni eyi-10 nosuku, i-Iran izosuka isivumelwano futhi uhambe ngobuqili. Kuyimpikiswano enelukuluku lokuyenza.
Ngokufanayo, noma iyiphi inkulumo yesivumelwano ethinta umjaho wezikhali zenuzi eMpumalanga Ephakathi isiphelelwe yisikhathi. Sekuyisikhathi eside u-Israyeli enebhomu, kungekho mncintiswano wezikhali owasungulwa. Ukwesaba okucashile kokuthi i-Iran izodala โiBhomu lamaSulumaneโ alinaki iqiniso lokuthi iPakistan, enezandla ezingcolile ngenxa yokuhlasela amaphekula kanye nenqwaba yabashisekeli bamaSulumane ekhona, ibe amandla enuzi kusukela okungenani. 1998.
Cha, okukhathaza kakhulu ama-Israel kanye namaSaudis ukuthi i-Iran izophinde ijoyine umphakathi wezizwe njengozakwethu kanye nozakwethu wokuhweba we-United States, Asia, kanye ne-Europe. Ukugibela a ezombusazwe Iziphathimandla zase-Iran ziqinisekise amanye amazwe angamaSulumane esifundeni ukuthi zithemba ukuthi lesi sivumelwano sizovula indlela yokubambisana okukhulu. Inqubomgomo yaseMelika ePersian Gulf, kanye ngokwethembekile egxile kuphela ezidingweni zayo zokuphepha namandla, kungenzeka (ekugcineni) iqale ukuhambisana neqiniso elikhulayo le-Eurasian elinezici eziningi. I-Iran enamandla iwusongo ngempela esimeni esikhona - yingakho ukucasuka eTel Aviv naseRiyadh - hhayi nje okwezempi. Amandla angempela ekhulwini lamashumi amabili nanye, eshoda ngempi ephelele, alele ngemali.
Isivumelwano sikaJulayi sivuma imephu yamandla omhlaba wangempela waseMpumalanga Ephakathi. Ayenzi i-Iran ne-United States abangani. Nokho, kuvula umnyango wokuthi abadlali ababili abakhulu besifunda bakhulume bodwa futhi bathuthukise izinhlobo zezibopho zezezimali nezohwebo ezizokwenza ukungqubuzana kungenzeki. Ngemuva kweminyaka engaphezu kwamashumi amathathu yokuzondana kwe-US-Iranian endaweni eguquguqukayo kakhulu emhlabeni, lokho akuyona impumelelo encane.
UPeter Van Buren washaya impempe ngokulahlwa koMnyango Wezwe kanye nokungaphathi kahle ngesikhathi kwakhiwa kabusha i-Iraq. Besiqonde Kahle: Ukuthi Ngisize Kanjani Ukulahlekelwa Impi Yezinhliziyo Nezingqondo Zabantu Base-Iraq. A TomDispatch njalo, yena ubhala ngezenzakalo zamanje at Besisho Kahle. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi Izipoki zika-Tom Joad: Indaba ye-#99Percent. Umsebenzi wakhe olandelayo kuzoba inoveli, Impi kaHooper.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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