Uyalazi ihlaya? Uchaza okuthile okubonakala kubheke enhlekeleleni - umngane owela i-Death Valley engenawo uphethiloli emotweni yakhe - bese wengeza, "Yini engase yonakale?"
Injalo iMpumalanga Ephakathi namuhla. I-US iphinde ibe sempini lapho, iqhumisa amabhomu ngokukhululeka kulo lonke elase-Iraq naseSyria, iluleka lapha, idonsela phansi lapho, ukwakhiwa komfelandawonye esifundeni ukuze kuqhume umlilo omncane ovela eqoqweni lama-alcitrant allies, futhi ifuna kakhulu amabhuzu angewona amaMelika. ukubeka phansi.
Lapha-ke, kunezimo eziyisikhombisa ezimbi kakhulu engxenyeni yomhlaba lapho isimo esibi kakhulu ngaso sonke isikhathi bekuhamba phambili okunikezwayo. Phela, njengoba wonke lawo mandla ezempi eqala ukusetshenziswa endaweni eguquguqukayo kakhulu emhlabeni, yini engase yonakale?
1. AmaKurds
Amazwe amaKurd ngokuvamile awabheka njengawo kudala ahlukaniswa phakathi kweTurkey, i-Iraq, iSiriya ne-Iran. Alikho kulawo mazwe elifisa ukunikela noma iyiphi indawo kubantu abambalwa abacabanga ukuzimela, futhi bathole izwe lamaKurd elinamandla, elifutha uwoyela emingceleni yabo.
ETurkey, indawo ehlala amaKurd ehlala emngceleni ne-Iraq sekuyiminyaka iyindawo yempi esezingeni eliphansi, lapho ibutho laseTurkey lidubula ngamabhomu, liqhunyiswa ngamabhomu, futhi ngezikhathi ezithile lithumela ibutho layo ukuthi liyohlasela amavukelambuso lapho. E-Iran, inani lamaKurd lincane kunase-Iraq futhi indawo yomngcele phakathi kwamazwe amabili ivulekele indawo yokuhlala nokuhweba. (Abase-Irani, ngokwesibonelo, kubikwa ukuthi bahluza uwoyela ku-Iraqi Kurds, abawufaka emakethe futhi bathenga negesi yemvelo e-Iran.) Lelo zwe nakuba kunjalo liye layihlanza indawo yasemngceleni wamaKurd ngezikhathi ezithile.
AmaKurds abelokhu elwela izwe lawo kusukela okungenani ngo-1923. Ngaphakathi e-Iraq namuhla, ngawo wonke umqondo ongokoqobo ayizwe elizimele elinohulumeni wawo kanye nezempi. Kusukela ngo-2003, bebenamandla ngokwanele ukuphonsela inselelo uhulumeni wamaShia e-Baghdad ngobudlova kakhulu kunabo. Isifiso sabo sokwenza lokho sicindezelwe ingcindezi evela eWashington ukuthi igcine i-Iraq iphelele. NgoJuni, nokho, amasosha abo, iPeshmerga, ashaqa idolobha laseKirkuk, elicebe ngowoyela, ngemuva kokuwa kwebutho lase-Iraq eMosul nakwamanye amadolobha asenyakatho lapho bebhekene nezidlamlilo ze-Islamic State (IS) . Ngokuntula enye indlela, abaphathi baka-Obama bavumela amaKurds ukuthi angene.
I-Peshmerga iyingxenye enkulu yenkinga yamanje. Esidingweni esisondele kakhulu samasosha athile anamandla, i-US kanye nabalingani bayo be-NATO manje sebewahlomisa futhi abaqeqeshe, basebenza njengamasosha abo asemoyeni ngendlela enkulu, futhi bayabasekela njengoba bengena endaweni ephikisana neBaghdad. njengempendulo efanelekile "ku-caliphate" entsha. Lokhu kusho ukuthi, esikhathini esizayo, iWashington kuzomele ibhekane nenkinga yokuthi ingasibuyisela kanjani i-genie ebhodleleni uma i-Islamic State ike yahlehliswa noma yephuka.
IMosul, idolobha lesibili ngobukhulu e-Iraq futhi manje elingaphansi koMbuso WamaSulumane, iyisibonelo esisobala kakhulu. Uma kubhekwa isimo esidabukisayo sebutho lase-Iraqi, amaKurds ngelinye ilanga angase asithathe. Lokho ngeke kwehle kahle e-Baghdad futhi umphumela ungase ube udlame olukhulu lwamahlelo ngemuva kwesikhathi eside i-IS ingasekho. Sinikezwe umbono omncane walokho okungenzeka edolobheni lase-Hassan Sham. AmaKurds ayibuyisele ngenyanga edlule. Kulolu hlelo, kubikwa ukuthi ezinye izakhamizi zamaShia zicheme nezitha zazo, amaphekula amaSunni e-IS, kunokuba zisekele iPeshmerga ethuthukayo.
Isimo esibi kakhulu: IKurdistan enamandla iphuma enxushunxushwini yamanje yenqubomgomo yaseMelika, ibhebhezela enye impi enkulu yamahlelo e-Iraq ezokwazi ukuchitheka imingcele. Ukuthi i-Kurdistan ibonwa njengezwe elinesihlalo se-UN, noma ivele ibe yizwe elifana ne-Taiwan (langempela lilonke kodwa igama), izoshintsha amandla aguquguqukayo esifundeni ngezindlela ezingabeka izinkinga zamanje emthunzini. Ukushintsha ibhalansi yamandla okunesikhathi eside kunemiphumela engahlosiwe, ikakhulukazi eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Buza u-George W. Bush mayelana nokuhlasela kwakhe i-Iraq ngo-2003, okwasusa iningi lesiphithiphithi samanje.
I-2. igalikuni
Ngeke, vele, ukhulume ngamaKurds ngaphandle kokuxoxa ngeTurkey, izwe elibanjwe oqotsheni. Amabutho ayo alwe iminyaka ephikisana nenhlangano yamaKurdish ehlukanisayo, eyenziwe samuntu yi-PKK, iqembu laseTurkey, i-NATO, i-European Union, ne-United States bonke abahlukanisa njengenhlangano yamaphekula. Izingxabano phakathi kwamaTurkey kanye ne-PKK zathatha izimpilo ezingu-37,000 ngeminyaka yawo-1980 kanye no-1990 ngaphambi kokuba zincishiswe kusukela emathunjini kuya ekushiseni ngenxa ye-European Union diplomacy. "Inkinga" eTurkey akuyona into encane - idlanzana layo lamaKurd, abantu abangaba yizigidi eziyi-15, benza cishe ama-20% abantu.
Uma kukhulunywa ngokuthatha isinyathelo eSyria, amaTurkey akhona endaweni engqubuzanayo ngoba iWashington igcobe amaKurds amabhuzu ayo phansi. Noma ngabe icabanga ukuthi yenzani, i-US isiza ukunika amandla idlanzana lamaKurdish eSyria, okuhlanganisa nezinto ze-PKK ezihlotshiswe ngasemngceleni waseTurkey, ngezikhali ezintsha nokuqeqeshwa.
Iqembu elibusayo laseTurkey alinalo uthando oluthile ngalabo abaphethe i-Islamic State, kodwa ukwenyanya kwalo umbusi waseSyria u-Bashar al-Assad kangangokuthi abaholi balo kudala bezimisele ukusiza i-IS ikakhulukazi ngokubheka enye indlela. Isikhathi eside, iTurkey ibilokhu iyindawo esobala yokungena "kumasosha angaphandle" esendleleni eya eSyria ukujoyina i-IS. ITurkey iphinde yasebenza njengendawo yokuphuma kuwoyela omningi wemakethe emnyama - $1.2 kuya ku-$2 wezigidi ngosuku - i-IS eyisebenzisele ukuzixhasa yona. Mhlawumbe ngokubuyisela emuva, i-Islamic State idedele abathunjwa baseTurkey abangama-49 ebibaphethe, okuhlanganisa nezinxusa ngaphandle kwamavidiyo ajwayelekile okunqunywa amakhanda. Ukuphendula izicelo zase-US zokwenza โukuthi thizeni,โ iTurkey manje isikhipha izinhlawulo kubashushumbisi bakawoyela, nakuba lezi sezenze isamba esingu-$5.7 million kuphela ezinyangeni eziyi-15 ezedlule, okubonisa uhlobo lokuzibophezela kweTurkey kumfelandawonye.
Isimo edolobheni elivinjezelwe yi-IS i-Kobani sibonisa inkinga. AbaseTurkey kuze kube manje benqabile ukungenelela ukuze basize amaKurds aseSyria. Amathangi aseTurkey ahlala angenzi lutho emagqumeni abheke impi yesandla nesandla engaphansi kwemayela kude. Amaphoyisa aseTurkey avimbe amaKurds aseTurkey ukuthi afinyelele edolobheni ukuzosiza. Izindiza zaseTurkey ziqhumise ngamabhomu amavukelambuso e-PKK ngaphakathi kweTurkey, eduze nomngcele wase-Iraq.
Ngaleso sikhathi, iziteleka zasemoyeni zase-US zenza okungaphezu kokucacisa imikhawulo yamandla omoya futhi zinikeze izazi-mlando zesikhathi esizayo izinto ezizobhala ngazo. Amabhomu aseMelika angahamba kancane i-IS, kodwa awakwazi ukuphinda abambe izingxenye zedolobha. Emfushane kokucekela phansi i-Kobani ngomoya ukuyisindisa, amandla ase-US anqunyelwe ngaphandle kwamabutho aphansi aseTurkey. Ngaphansi kwezimo ezikhona manje, abalwi be-Islamic State bazolithatha idolobha noma bazosha kancane njengoba belikhipha ngamaKurds.
Intengo yaseTurkey yokungenelela, emenyezelwe esidlangalaleni, iwukudalwa kwendawo yebhafa ephoqelelwe yi-US ngasemngceleni. AbaseTurkey bazodinga ukuthatha le ndawo phansi, banikeze indawo yaseSyria eTurkey (njengoba indawo evikelekile ehlala amaKurds ingeke yenze). Lokhu kuzobandakanya ukuzibophezela okuqhubekayo okuvela eWashington, okungenzeka kubeke izindiza zempi zaseMelika ekungqubuzaneni okuqondile nezindiza zaseSyria, okwakuzodingeka ziqhunyiswe ngamabhomu, kwandise impi. I-buffer zone izophinda iqede noma yiziphi izivumelwano eziyimfihlo ezingaba khona phakathi kwe-US ne-Assad. Le ndawo izomela okunye ukuzibophezela okuvulekile, okudinga izinsiza ezengeziwe zase-US engxabanweni esevele ibiza abakhokhi bentela baseMelika okungenani amaRandi ayizigidi ezingu-10 ngosuku.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inqubomgomo yamanje yaseWashington idinga ukuthi iTurkey ibeke eceleni imigomo yayo kazwelonke ukuze isisize sifeze ezethu. Sibonile ukuthi isimo esinjalo senzeka kanjani esikhathini esidlule. (I-Google โPakistan kanye ne-Taliban.โ) Kodwa njengoba u-Kobani esezindabeni, i-US isengaphumelela ukucindezela abantu baseTurkey ukuthi benze izenzo ezilinganiselwe, njengokuvumela izindiza zempi zaseMelika ukuthi zisebenzise izikhumulo zezindiza zaseTurkey noma ukuvumela i-US iqeqeshe amavukelambuso aseSyria endaweni yayo. . Lokho ngeke kuguqule iqiniso lokuthi iTurkey ekugcineni izogxila ezinhlosweni zayo ngaphandle kwama-Kobanis amaningi azayo.
Isimo esibi kakhulu: Izinxushunxushu esikhathini esizayo saseMpumalanga yeTurkey, kuyilapho ilanga likhanya ku-Assad namaKurds. Ukuthutheleka kwababaleki kakade sebekhokhisa abantu baseTurkey intela. Izinkulumo ezikhona ngaphakathi kweTurkey zingashintsha zibe mhlophe qhwa, kanti abaseTurkey bazithola sebengqubuzana namabutho amaKurd njengoba i-US ihlezi ithule eceleni ibukele umfelandawonye elwa nomunye, umphumela obungahlosiwe wokugxambukela kwawo eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Uma indawo ye-buffer ingenzeka, phonsa ithuba lokulwa okuqondile phakathi kwe-US ne-Assad, lapho uMongameli waseRussia u-Vladimir Putin engase athole ithuba lokuphinda ahlanganyele endaweni.
3. eSyria
Cabanga ngeSyria njengempi yaseMelika ebingakaze yenzeke. Naphezu kweminyaka eminingi yezingcingo zokuthi i-US ingenele kanye nokudlala ngothando namaqembu amavukela-mbuso aseSyria, abaphathi baka-Obama bakwazile (ngokuncane nje) ukukugwema lesi sihlava. NgoSepthemba 2013, uMongameli u-Obama wahamba waze wafika onqenqemeni lokuthumela amabhomu kanye nemicibisholo yokuhamba ngesikebhe ngokumelene nebutho lezempi lika-Assad mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwezikhali zamakhemikhali. Wabe esesebenzisa iCongress engasebenzisani kanye ne-Putin-gambit ehlakaniphile njengezaba zokuhlehla.
Imodeli yalo nyaka - ungamnaki u-Assad, ukuhlasela i-IS - yavela emasontweni ambalwa nje njengoba isenzo esilinganiselwe sobuntu siguqukela ekulweni kwaze kwaba sekugcineni ngokumelene ne-IS e-Iraq sabe sesiqhumisa amabhomu iSyria ngokwayo. Njenganoma yimuphi ubuqili bomlingo, sonke sakubukela kwenzeka kodwa namanje asikwazi ukuthola ukuthi ubuqili benziwa kanjani.
ISiriya namuhla iyizwe eliyincithakalo. Kepha endaweni ethile kulelo zwe kukhona ama-unicorns - izidalwa okuvame ukukhulunywa ngazo kodwa ezingakaze zibonwe - "amavukelambuso aseSyria aphakathi nendawo" aphethwe ngabaphathi baka-Obama. Bangobani? Incazelo yokusebenza ibonakala ifana nokuthi: abantu abamelene no-Assad, ngeke balwe naye okwamanje, kodwa okwamanje kungenzeka balwe ne-Islamic State, futhi ababona "isisekelo esiyisisekelo." I-US ihlela ukubajikijela izikhali futhi ibaqeqeshe ngokushesha nje lapho ingathola ezinye zazo, izihlole, futhi iziyise eSaudi Arabia. Uma uthenga isitoko emakethe yaseSyria, bheka noma ubani obhalwe ukuthi โinkosi yezempi emaphakathi.โ
Ngenkathi i-US kanye nomfelandawonye wayo ihlasela i-IS, ezinye izifundazwe (noma okungenani abantu abacebile) kulelo qembu labazalwane bayaqhubeka nokufaka imali ku-caliphate entsha ukuze basekele indima yabo yokuzijuba njengomvikeli wamaSunni kanye nommeleli osebenzayo ngokumelene nokunikezwa amandla kwamaShia. e-Iraq. IPhini likaMongameli uJoe Biden usanda kubiza abanye babambisene baseMelika kulokhu kulokho okubizwa ngokuthi enye yezingoma zakhe ezidumile, edinga ukuxolisa nxazonke. Uma ufuna ukubona isimo esingcono kakhulu sekusasa laseSyria, bheka iLibya, izwe elingenelele ngemuva kwe-US elinesiphithiphithi, eliqoshwe amasosha.
Isimo esibi kakhulu: I-Syria njengendawo engalawulwa, indawo entsha yamaphekula namaqembu alwayo agqugquzelwa abantu bangaphandle. (I-Pakistani Taliban isivele yafunga ukuthi izothumela amasosha ayosiza i-IS.) Phonsa ithuba lokuthi iqembu elithile libambe noma yiziphi izikhali zamakhemikhali ezisele noma imicibisholo ecitshwayo efana ne-SCUD enjenge-surface-to-surface ephuma ekhabetheni lika-Assad, futhi amathuba okufa nokubhujiswa awapheli. . Kungase kusakazeke ngisho naku-Israyeli.
I-4 Israyeli
Umngcele wakwa-Israyeli neSyria, omakwe yiGolan Heights, ubulokhu umngcele wawo othule kusukela ngempi yango-1967, kodwa lokho manje kuyashintsha. Abashokobezi baseSyria abanokunambitheka okuthile basanda kuthumba amadolobhana asemngceleni kanye nendawo yokuwela kulezo zindawo eziphakeme. Abagcini bokuthula beNhlangano Yezizwe, abake bazulazula endaweni, iningi labo likhishwe ukuze baphephe. Ngenyanga edlule, i-Israel yadubula indiza yaseSyria eyangena endaweni yayo, ngokungangabazeki isexwayiso ku-Assad ukuba acabangele ibhizinisi lakhe kunokuthi acabangele indaba yempi.
Kucatshangwa ukuthi, abaphathi baka-Obama bebelokhu bezama ngemuva, okukhumbuza iMpi YaseGulf yango-1991 lapho i-Iraqi SCUDS iqala ukuna emadolobheni akwa-Israel, ukuze kuvinjwe lelozwe ekulweni okukhulu. Akuwona u-1991, nokho. Ubudlelwano phakathi kwe-US ne-Israel buyashintshashintsha kakhulu futhi bufakazela kakhulu. I-Israel ihlome kangcono futhi izithiyo zase-US ezifisweni zakwa-Israyeli zibonakale zibuthakathaka kakhulu kamuva nje.
Isimo esibi kakhulu: Ukunyakaza kwe-Israel, noma ukuqinisekisa ukuthi impi ihlala kude nomngcele wayo we-Golan Heights noma imvelo ecasulayo okuhloswe ngayo ukuvikela indawo ethile yaseSyria, ingasihlukanisa isifunda. โKufana nebhodlela elikhulu elinegesi elizungezwe amakhandlela. Udinga nje ukucisha ikhandlela elilodwa futhi yonke into ingaqhuma ngomzuzu,โ kusho ujenene wase-Israel osewathatha umhlalaphansi. Noma kunjalo, uma ucabanga ukuthi i-Israel ikhathazekile ngeSyria, lokho akulutho uma kuqhathaniswa nendlela ubuholi bayo okufanele buthukuthele ngayo ngokuvela kwe-Iran njengombuso wesifunda ohlale unamandla.
I-5. I-Iran
Yini engahamba kabi nge-Iran kulengxabano yamanje? Ngenkathi eMpumalanga Ephakathi kungavela okungalindelekile, okwamanje lelo zwe libukeka njengomnqobi omkhulu kuma-IS sweepstakes. Ngabe uhulumeni osekela i-Iranian Shia uzosala ephethe eBaghdad? Uyabhejwa. Ngabe i-Iran inikezwe i-carte blanche ukuhambisa amabutho aphansi e-Iraq? Hlola. Ingabe ibutho lomoya laseMelika lizoqhumisa amabhomu ligijimela amasosha angaphansi kwe-Iranian abambene ne-IS (ngendlela engekho emthethweni, kunjalo)? Akungabazeki. Ingabe iWashington ingahle izame ukuhlehla kancane ezingxoxweni zayo zamadoda aqinile enuzi? A amathuba. Ngabe umnyango ungashiywa uvulekile uma kukhulunywa ngokudalulwa kwenswinyo yezomnotho uma abantu baseMelika bedinga okuthile okwengeziwe okuvela e-Iran e-Iraq? Kungani kungenjalo?
Isimo esibi kakhulu: Ngolunye usuku, kuzoba nesifanekiso sika-Barack Obama maphakathi neTehran, hhayi e-Iraq.
6. I-Iraq
I-Iraq "iyindawo yamathuna ombuso" waseMelika. Uhlelo โolushaโ lwaseWashington lwalelo zwe luncike empumelelweni yezinhlelo ezimbalwa esezivele zehlulekile ngesikhathi zizanywa phakathi kuka-2003-2011, isikhathi lapho kwakunezinsiza eziningi kakhulu ezitholakala โkubakhi besizweโ baseMelika futhi okuncane kakhulu endleleni izinxushunxushu zesifunda, zimbi njengoba zazinjalo ngaleso sikhathi.
Isinyathelo sokuqala ohlelweni lwakamuva lwaseMelika wukwakhiwa kukahulumeni โobandakanyayoโ e-Baghdad, okuyinto i-US efisa ngayo ukuthi izosusa umngcele phakathi kwabantu abangamaSunni abavukelayo nabanganelisekile kanye nombuso wamaSulumane. Ngemuva kwalokho sekwenzekile, ibutho lase-Iraq (eliqeqeshwe kabusha) lizobuyela enkundleni ukuze liqhube amabutho e-caliphate entsha ezindaweni ezisenyakatho yezwe futhi liphinde lithathe iMosul.
Konke lokhu akunangqondo, uma kungekona nje okungokoqobo. Phela, iWashington isivele yacwilisa amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-25 ekuqeqesheni nasekuhlomiseni lelo butho, kanye nezigidigidi eziningi emaphoyiseni amasosha. Umphumela: ingaphezu kancane kokuthi i-IS ithatha izikhali zezikhali zamaMelika ezisezingeni eliphezulu lapho amabutho ase-Iraqi esebalekile emadolobheni asenyakatho yezwe ngoJuni.
Manje, mayelana nalowo hulumeni obandakanya wonke umuntu. I-United States ibonakala icabanga ukuthi ukwakha uhulumeni wase-Iraq kufana nokukhethela abadlali beqembu lebhola lezinyawo. Uyazi, wina okunye, ulahlekelwe okunye, wenze ukuhweba okumbalwa, futhi uma kungekho kwalokhu okusebenzayo, usenokudubula ohlwini olusha kanye nerekhodi eliwinile ngonyaka ozayo. Njengoba u-Haider al-Abadi, undunankulu wakamuva kanye nethemba elikhulu lokubandakanya wonke umuntu, enguShia futhi owayenguzakwabo walabo abake bagcotshwa, manje ophoxekile uNouri al-Maliki, kanye nelungu leqembu elifanayo lezepolitiki, akukho okuningi washintsha phezulu. Ngakho-ke amathemba "wokubandakanywa" manje awela ezinqumweni zokuhola izinkonzo ezibalulekile zezokuvikela kanye nezangaphakathi. Bobabili sebeneminyaka bengamathuluzi engcindezelo kumaSunni akuleli. Okwamanje, u-Abadi usabambe njengongqongqoshe wabo bobabili, njengoba kwakunjalo noMaliki ngaphambi kwakhe. Ngempela, yini okungenzeka yonakale?
Ngokuqondene namaSunni, isu laseMelika lincike ekucabangeni ukuthi angafumbathiswa futhi aphoqelelwe ukuba ahlukane ne-IS, noma ngabe izinto zinjani eBaghdad. Lokho kunzima ukukucabanga, ngaphandle uma bentula yonke inkumbulo. Njengase-al-Qaeda e-Iraq phakathi neminyaka yokubusa kweMelika, i-Islamic State iyisiphazamiso samaSunni ngokumelene nohulumeni wamaShia, oyekwa ukwenza izinqumo zawo, aqhubeke nokuwabukela phansi, uma kungenjalo nje ukuwahlaba. Kusukela ngo-2007, izikhulu zaseMelika zafumbathisa futhi zaphoqa abaholi bezizwe zamaSunni ukuthi bamukele izikhali kanye nezinkokhelo zokulwa nezimpahla zamavukelambuso, okuhlanganisa ne-al-Qaeda. Leso sivumelwano, ngaleso sikhathi esasibizwa ngokuthi i-Anbar Awakening, safika nesiqiniseko sokuthi i-United States izohlale ihambisana nabo. (UJenene John Allen, manje oxhumanisa impi entsha yaseMelika e-Iraq, wayengumuntu obalulekile ekuhwebeni lokho โkuvuka.โ) IMelika ayizange ime. Esikhundleni salokho, yadlulisela lolu hlelo kuhulumeni wamaShia yaqonda emnyango obhalwe ukuthi โphumaโ. AmaShia ahlehlisa ngokushesha isivumelwano.
Uma elunywe, enamahloni kabili, pho kungani, eminyakeni embalwa kamuva, amaSunni ayengahamba ngalokho okubonakala kuyisenzo esibi esifanayo? Ngaphezu kwalokho, lena ibonakala inokushwabana okuphikisayo ikakhulukazi ngokombono waseMelika. Ngokwezinhlelo zamanje, i-US izokwakha "iyunithi yonogada kazwelonke" yamaSunni - amasosha angamaSunni ahlomile anegama elidayiswa kakhulu - ukuze alwe ne-IS ngokuwakhokhela nokubahlomisa ukuthi enze kanjalo. La masosha azolwa endaweni yamaSunni kuphela ngaphansi kobuholi bamaSunni. Ngeke babe nokuxhumana nohulumeni waseBaghdad kunawe. Lokho kuzosiza kanjani ukwenza i-Iraq ibe yizwe elibandakanya abantu bonke, elinobumbano? Kuyokwenzekani, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lapho amabutho ahlomile amahlelo esekhululiwe? Yini okungenzeka yonakale?
Naphezu komlando wayo ongaguquki wokwehluleka, "impumelelo" ye-Anbar Awakening iseyinganekwane ephikelelayo phakathi kongqondongqondo be-American Conservative. Ngakho-ke ungakhohliswa esikhathini esifushane ngezibonelo zasendaweni ezinamacilongo abezindaba zokubambisana kwamaSunni-Shia ngokumelene ne-IS. Cabangela imifelandawonye yesikhashana yokusebenzelana kalula phakathi kwesizwe nesizwe okungenzeka kungadluleli ukuhlasela okulandelayo. Lokho akusondeli nakancane esu lokunqoba kwesizwe. Kwakungekho ngaleso sikhathi, akunjalo.
Isimo esibi kakhulu: Udlame lwamaSunni namaShia lufinyelela ezingeni elisha, elidonsela abantu abangaphandle, mhlawumbe izifunda zeSunni Gulf, abafuna ukuvimbela isibhicongo. Ngabe ama-Shia Iranians, anamandla asevele esezweni, angama engenzi lutho? Ubani ongabikezela ukuthi lingakanani igazi elizochithwa, konke okubangelwa enye impi yobuwula yaseMelika e-Iraq?
7. Izwe laseMelika
Uma i-Iran ingaba umnqobi omkhulu wezombangazwe kulo mbango wezifunda eziningi, kusho ukuthi i-US izoba isihluleki esikhulu. UMongameli u-Obama (noma umlandeli wakhe) ekugcineni, ngokungangabazeki kufanele akhethe phakathi kwempi emkhathizwe kanye nokufaka amabutho aphansi ase-US kule ngxabano. Ayikho indlela engase ilethe imiphumela efiselekayo, kodwa lawo โmabhuzu aphansiโ azokhuphula imvelo yenhlekelele elandelayo.
Iphupho laseWashington langemva kwe-9/11 bekulokhu kungukuthi amandla ezempi - kungakhathaliseki ukuthi asezingeni eligcwele lokuhlasela noma ukuhlaselwa kwe-drone "yokuhlinzwa" - angashintsha isimo sezwe ngezindlela ezibikezelwe. Eqinisweni, okuwukuphela kwesiqinisekiso ukufa okwengeziwe. Konke okunye, njengoba iminyaka eyi-13 edlule isikucacisile, kusazothathwa, futhi ngezindlela iWashington iqinisekisiwe ukuthi ngeke ilindele.
Phakathi kwezimo ezingaba khona: Amasosha e-IS okwamanje angamakhilomitha kuphela ukusuka e-Baghdad International Airport, yona ngokwayo engamamayela ayisishiyagalolunye kuphela ukusuka eGreen Zone enhliziyweni yenhloko-dolobha. (Qaphela ukuthi i-M198 howwitzers IS ethathwe e-Iraqis ehlehlayo inobubanzi obungamamayela angu-14.) Isikhumulo sezindiza siyingosi ebalulekile yokukhishwa kwabasebenzi benxusa lapho bebhekene ne-mega-Benghazi engaba khona esikhathini esizayo kanye nokundizela izisebenzi eziningi njenge- I-Marine Quick Reaction Force isanda kuthuthela e-Kuwait eseduze. Isikhumulo sezindiza sesivele sivikelwe ngamasosha aseMelika angama-300-500, esekelwa izindiza ezinophephela emhlane nama-drones e-Apache. Izindiza ezinophephela emhlane ze-Apache ezisanda kuthunyelwa empini esifundazweni esiseduze sase-Anbar cishe zandiza zaphuma lapho. Uma amaphekula e-IS engase ahlasele isikhumulo sezindiza, i-US kuzomele isivikele, okusho ukulwa phakathi kwala mabutho womabili. Uma kunjalo, i-IS izohlulwa phansi, kodwa izowina ngokudonsa iMelika ijule obishini.
Esithombeni esikhulu, umfelandawonye wamanje omelene ne-Islamic State "wamazwe angaphezu kuka-60" i-US eyahlanganisela ndawonye ngeke uhlale. Kuhlelelwe ukuwohloka enqwabeni yemigomo yesikhathi eside engqubuzanayo. Ngokushesha noma kamuva, i-US kungenzeka iphinde izithole iyodwa, njengoba ekugcineni yenza empini yokugcina yase-Iraq.
Umphumela okungenzeka kakhulu kukho konke lokhu kubulala, noma ngabe isiphetho se-Islamic State, sibhebhethekisa isiphithiphithi e-Iraq, eSyria, nakwamanye amazwe esifundeni, okuhlanganisa neTurkey. Njengoba u-Andrew Bacevich aphawula, โNgisho noma singawina, siyahlulwa. Ukwehlula i-Islamic State kuzobophezela i-United States ngokujule kakhulu ebhizinisini elineminyaka engamashumi eminyaka likhona elibonakale libiza kakhulu futhi lingenzi lutho. " Ukulahlekelwa ukulawula izindleko zangempela zale mpi kuzophakamisa umbuzo: Ingabe i-US yake yalawula?
NgoSeptemba, iSiriya yaba izwe le-14 emhlabeni wamaSulumane ukuthi amabutho ase-US ahlasele, athatha, noma aqhumisa amabhomu kusukela ngo-1980. Phakathi nale minyaka eminingi yokulwa kwempi yaseMelika, imigomo iye yashintsha ngokungapheli, kuyilapho isimo eMpumalanga Ephakathi Ephakathi sibi kakhulu. . Ukwakhiwa kwentando yeningi? Ngeke usakuzwa lokho okuningi. Amafutha? I-US izoba isikhiqizi esiphelele. Ukunqoba ubuphekula? Leyo yincazelo yanamuhla, kodwa ubufakazi sebuvele bukhona bokuthi ukucosha izimpi esifundeni kukhuthaza ubuphekula kuphela. Ekhaya, iculo lokwesabeka likhula kakhulu, okuholela esimweni sokuphepha sikazwelonke esithuthukisiwe kanye nezizathu ezilokhu zinwetshwa zokuqapha umphakathi wethu.
Isimo esibi kakhulu: Impi yaseMelika eseMpumalanga Ephakathi ingena eshumini lesithathu leminyaka ingabonakali, i-vortex edla izimpilo zabantu, umcebo wezwe, kanye negumbi lokuphefumula ngengqondo laseWashington, njengoba ezinye izindaba ezibalulekile zinganakwa. Futhi yini engase ingahambi kahle kulokho?
UPeter Van Buren washaya impempe ngokulahlwa koMnyango Wezwe kanye nokungaphathi kahle ngesikhathi kwakhiwa kabusha i-Iraqi encwadini yakhe yokuqala, Besiqonde Kahle: Ukuthi Ngisize Kanjani Ukulahlekelwa Impi Yezinhliziyo Nezingqondo Zabantu Base-Iraq. I-TomDispatch ejwayelekile, ubhala ngemicimbi yamanje kubhulogi yakhe, We Meant Well. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi Ghosts of Tom Joad: A Story of the #99Percent.
Lesi sihloko sivele okokuqala ku-TomDispatch.com, i-weblog ye-Nation Institute, enikeza ukugeleza okuqhubekayo kweminye imithombo, izindaba, kanye nemibono evela ku-Tom Engelhardt, umhleli wesikhathi eside ekushicileleni, umsunguli we-American Empire Project, umbhali we Ukuphela KweMasiko Okunqoba, njengenoveli, Izinsuku Zokugcina Zokushicilela. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi Indlela Yempi YaseMelika: Izimpi ZikaBush Zaba Ngaka-Obama Kanjani (Izincwadi zeHaymarket).
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
Nikela