I-US izungeza imibuthano eMpumalanga Ephakathi, ihlanganisa ndawonye imifelandawonye lapha, ithola abangani abangabazi lapho, futhi endaweni ngemva kwendawo izama ukuthola ukuthi ubani ngempela isitha sesitha sayo. Umphumela uyilokho nje obungakulindela: izinxushunxushu ziqhubeka nokucekela phansi noma yini esele ezizweni ubuthakathaka bazo obubangela i-jihadism iMelika ezama ukuyiqeda.
Futhi endabeni yakudala yemiphumela ebingahlosiwe, cishe ngaso sonke isikhathi lapho iWashington yenza elinye iphutha eMpumalanga Ephakathi, i-Iran ingenelele ukuze isizakale. Cabangela lelo zwe amandla akhulayo esifundeni futhi unikeze i-American clumsiness ngokukhuphuka okusha kwe-Iranian.
Izindaba Zanamuhla - Nomlando Othize
I-U.S. isanda kuphetha umoya ushaya ngokweseka amasosha ase-Iraqi athandwa yi-Iran njengoba athatha idolobha laseTikrit ku-Islamic State (IS). Ngesikhathi esifanayo, iWashington yaqala ukuhlinzeka intelligence futhi ukufaka amafutha emoyeni ngesidingo somkhankaso wokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu eSaudi ngokumelene namasosha ase-Iran athanda eYemen. I-Iran iyaqhubeka nokweluleka nokusiza uMongameli waseSyria u-Bashar al-Assad, iWashington engathanda ukumsusa esikhundleni futhi, njengengxenye yesu layo laseSyria, iyaqhubeka nokuhlinzeka nokuqondisa iHezbollah eLebanon, iqembu i-US elibheka njengengubo yamaphekula.
Ngaleso sikhathi, i-U.S kuxoxiswane Uhlaka lwesivumelwano ne-Iran lapho inqubekelaphambili ekuvimbeleni kanzima uhlelo lwayo lwenuzi izodayiswa ukuze kuqedwe unswinyo ekugcineni futhi kunikezwe ukuqashelwa kwezobunxusa. Lokhu nakanjani kuzoqinisa isimo seTehran njengamandla esifunda, kuyilapho kwehlisa amandla amadlelandawonye aseMelika esikhathi eside i-Israel, iSaudi Arabia kanye neGulf States.
Umcwaningi ohlakaniphile ngokungangabazeki angapenda konke lokhu okungenhla njenge realpolitik I-ballet engxenyeni yaseWashington, kodwa iqiniso libonakala lilula kakhulu futhi libuhlungu kakhulu. Kusukela ekuhlaselweni kwe-Iraq ngo-2003, inqubomgomo yase-US esifundeni ihlanganise ukudideka ngezinga elikhulu nokuqhuma okungahambi kahle kwezenzo ezingahlelekile nezesikhathi esifushane kakhulu. Izwe elihlomule kakhulu yi-Iran. Ayikho indawo ebonisa lokhu kangcono kune-Iraq.
Iraq I-Redux (Namanje futhi)
Ngo-April 9, 2003, ngaphezudlwana nje kweminyaka eyi-12 edlule, amasosha ase-US adiliza isifanekiso sikaSaddam Hussein eBaghdad. I-Firdos Square, okufanekisa ukumaka lokho uGeorge W. Bush ayethemba ukuthi kwakuyisiqalo somkhankaso wokwenza kabusha iMpumalanga Ephakathi emfanekisweni waseMelika ngokungalethi nje i-Iraq kodwa iSiriya ne-Iran esithendeni. Futhi akungabazeki ukuthi ukuhlasela kwe-Iraq ngempela kwamisa izehlakalo ezisalungisa lesi sifunda ngezindlela obungakaze uzicabange.
Ngemuva kokuhlasela kwe-Iraq kanye nokuhlala kwabantu, i-Arab Spring yaqhakaza futhi uhlulekile. (Isinqumo sakamuva sokuphatha u-Obama sokuphinda baqale kabusha ukuthunyelwa kwezikhali kuhulumeni wezempi ka-Abdel Fattah al-Sisi e-Egypt singathathwa njenge-coup de grรขce.) Namuhla, ukulwa kushubile eLibya, eSiriya, eYemen, eMaghreb, e-Egypt. Uphondo lwase-Afrika, nezinye izingxenye zeGreater Middle East. Amaphekula ahlasela ezindaweni ezinokuthula uma kuqhathaniswa Tunisia. Kukhona manje a de facto I-Kurdistan ezimele - yagcina ukuba ngokoqobo ngekhulu leshumi nesithupha - okuhlanganisa idolobha laseKirkuk. Amazwe angaphambili azinzile asephenduke izifunda ezihlulekayo futhi ikhaya lamaqembu amaphekula ayengekho ngisho nalapho amasosha ase-US ewela umngcele wase-Iraq ngo-2003.
Futhi-ke, eminyakeni eyi-12 kamuva e-Iraq ngokwayo impi iyaqhubeka. Ubani manje okhumbula uMongameli u-Obama ememezela ukunqoba ngo-2011 futhi encoma amasosha aseMelika ngokufika ekhaya "amakhanda aphakemeโ? Ngaleso sikhathi wayebonakala egeza izandla zakhe unomphela enqwabeni yesihlabathi esinamathelayo esinsundu esasiyi-Iraq kaBush. Kuchithwe izigidigidi, kwalahleka izimpilo ezingabaliwe noma zonakalisiwe, kodwa njengoba kwenzeka eVietnam emashumini eminyaka ngaphambili, i-US yayizoqhubekela phambili futhi ingabheki emuva. Kakhulu ngephupho lokuphumelela I-Pax Americana eMpumalanga Ephakathi, kodwa okungenani kwase kuphelile.
Uyazi ukuthi kwenzekani ngokulandelayo. Ngokungafani naseVietnam, iWashington yabuyela emuva, yashintsha ngokushesha isenzo sokusiza abantu ngo-Agasti 2014 londoloza the Yazidi abantu ekubhujisweni ezandleni ze-Islamic State baye emkhankasweni wokuqhunyiswa kwamabhomu eSyria nase-Iraq. Umfelandawonye we izizwe 62 kwakheka. (Baphi bonke manje ngenkathi i-U.S. iqhuba 85% kukho konke ukuhlasela komoya ngokumelene ne-IS?) Thepha ku-massive ukugeleza kwezingalo kwavulwa. Umqambi we-2007 "ukuphakamaโ e-Iraq futhi a i-leaker wemibhalo eyimfihlo ephezulu, ujenene osewathatha umhlalaphansi kanye nowayenguMqondisi weCIA uDavid Petraeus, wabuyiswa ukuze athole iseluleko. Ukuqhuma kwamabhomu angamashumi amabili nane nesikhombisa kwaba yisimiso sosuku futhi abeluleki bezempi base-US abayizinkulungwane ezimbalwa babuyela izisekelo ezijwayelekile ukuqeqesha kabusha ingxenye ethile yebutho elakhiwe eMelika elalisanda kuwa futhi lashiywa amadolobha amane ayisihluthulelo asenyakatho kumaphekula e-Islamic State. I-Iraq War 3.0 yayiqhubeka ngokusemthethweni kanye nama-pundits amaningi - kuhlanganise nami - ibikezele ukukhuphuka okuzinzile ne-quagmire evamile ezolandelwa.
Umphumela onjalo ngeke ukhishwe okwamanje, kodwa okwamanje kusengathi u-Barack Obama usedlulele emaphethelweni kwalasha wase-Iraq, walunguza, wabe esenyusa amahlombe akhe. Kokubili abaphathi bakhe kanye namasosha ase-US avela okuqukethwe okwamanje ukuthi angahlehli noma acindezele kakhulu.
Abantu baseMelika babonakala bezizwa ngendlela efanayo. Ngaphandle kwe-Republican Congress (futhi nalapho ngendlela enomsindo omncane kunokuvamile), kukhona izingcingo ezimbalwaโฆ kahle, noma yini. Iziteleka zomoya eziqhubekayo zihlala "zihlinza" kwezombusazwe zasekhaya, uma kungenjalo e-Iraq naseSiriya. Akunakwa futhi kuncane okubikwa ngakho lapha, akubanga namphumela kubantu baseMelika. Nokho bahlala benele ukuqinisekisa uphiko olufanele ukuthi amasosha aseMelika aseyithuluzi elingcono kakhulu lokuxazulula izinkinga phesheya, ngenkathi ekhuthaza abakhululekile abafuna ukukhombisa ukuthi bangaba lukhuni njenganoma ngubani ongena ku-2016.
Uma uthi nhlรก, inguqulo yaseMelika ye-Iraq War 3.0 inomuzwa we Ukungenelela emoyeni waseLibya - ukuntuleka okufanayo kokukhathazeka, okungukuthi, ngomdlalo omude. Kodwa i-Iraq 2015 ayikho iLibya 2011, ngoba kulokhu ngenkathi iMelika ihlezi emuva, i-Iran iyakhuphuka.
I-Iran Ascendant
IMpumalanga Ephakathi yayisilungele ushintsho. Ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwe-Iraq ngo-2003, umcimbi wokugcina omkhulu wenguquko endaweni kwaba iwe yaleso stooge saseMelika sakudala, i-Shah yase-Iran, ngo-1979. Ngale kwalokho, imibuso eminingi yezigebengu eyayibusa kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-1960, ukuphakama kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi, yayimile, kanjalo nemingcele eminingi yayimisiwe ngisho nangaphambili, kwe ngemuva yeMpi Yezwe I.
I-Iran kufanele ithumele iMelika ubhasikidi wezithelo ukuyibonga ngokubeka inkundla kahle kakhulu ngokukhuphuka kwayo. Ekuqaleni, ngo-2003 i-United States yaqeda izinsongo ezinkulu zasemngceleni we-Iran: uSaddam Hussein wase-Iraq ngasentshonalanga kanye namaTaliban e-Afghanistan empumalanga. (AmaTaliban abuyile impela, kodwa agxile ngenkuthalo kuhulumeni wase-Afghan ongunodoli waseMelika.) Isiqubulo eside sezimpi zaseWashington kuwo womabili lawo mazwe sathuntutha ngisho nokunambitheka okuthembekile komphakathi waseMelika omele igazi ngokuningi okufanayo, futhi kwapholisa izinhlelo zenkathi kaBush. eTel Aviv naseWashington ngeziteleka zomoya ngokumelene nezikhungo zenuzi zase-Iran. (Phela, uma iPhini Likamongameli u-Dick Cheney akakwazanga ukudonsa i-Iran ngaphambi kokushiya isikhundla ngo-2008, ngubani ngo-2015 eMelika ozokwenza lokho?)
Kungcono kakhulu kwabase-Irani, ngenkathi uSaddam wayenjalo alengisiwe ngo-2006, abazange nje balahlekelwe yisitha esasihlasele izwe labo ngo-1980, baqala ukulwa. impi ngokumelene nabo abangazange baphele iminyaka eyisishiyagalombili, kodwa bazuza umngane e-Iraq entsha. Njengethonya le-U.S sabuna kude ngokwehluleka kokhetho lwase-Iraq lwangoMashi 2010 ukukhiqiza uhulumeni omele wonke umuntu, i-Iran yangenela ukuze ihlanganise isivumelwano esiholele kuhulumeni wamahlelo wamaShia e-Baghdad ozimisele ngokuqinisekisa ukuthi idlanzana lamaSunni lezwe lizohlala lingekho emandleni unomphela. Ukuphatha kuka-Obama kubonakala sengathi akunandaba nokuzuza kwe-Iran e-Iraq ngo-2010 - futhi kubonakala kunjalo futhi ngo-2015.
I-Iran e-Iraq
E-Tikrit, amasosha e-Shia aholwa yi-Iran asanda kukhipha i-Islamic State edolobheni. Owayephethe kwakunguQassem Suleimani, umholi weqembu I-Qods Force (iyunithi ye-Iranโs Revolutionary Guards), eyayinabo ngaphambilini ice imizamo esebenza ngonya yamabutho akhethekile ase-Iranian ngokumelene namasosha ase-US e-Iraq War 2.0. Wabuyela kulelo zwe futhi wahlanganisa umfelandawonye wakhe wamasosha angamaShia ukuze athathe iTikrit. Bonke sebenesikhathi eside bezuza ekusekelweni kwe-Iran, njengoba sekunjalo nebutho lase-Iraq elisanda kubuswa ngamaShia.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ama-Irani abonakala ezilethe awabo amathangi futhi mhlawumbe ngisho amabutho aphansi ngokuhlaselwa komuzi. Nabo bathutha izinhlelo ze-rocket ezithuthukisiwe e-Iraq, izikhali ezifanayo iHamas ezisebenzise ngokumelene no-Israyeli ezingxabanweni zakamuva.
Inye kuphela into eyayishoda: amandla omoya. Ngemva okuningi edidekile, lapho kubonakala sengathi ukuhlasela kwe-Tikrit kuphazanyiswe izimpi ze-Islamic State ezimba kahle edolobheni elivaleleke kakhulu, abaphathi baka-Obama bavuma ukuyihlinzeka.
Ngasohlangothini lwase-US, umoya wokuphelelwa ithemba ngesinqumo sokwethula iziteleka zasemoyeni eTikrit wawuzwakala. Ungakuzwa, ngokwesibonelo, kulesi sitatimende somkhulumeli wePentagon ecishe enxusa uhulumeni wase-Iraq ukuthi avune iWashington phezu kweTehran: โNgicabanga ukuthi kubalulekile ukuthi ama-Iraqi aqonde ukuthi okungaba wusizo olukhulu kubo nguzakwethu othembekile kulokhu. ukulwa ne-IS. Amandla ezempi athembekile, aqeqeshiwe, athuthukile ayinto ehlala ngokusobala futhi eqondile nomfelandawonye. "
Cabanga nje ukube ubutshele isosha laseMelika - noma ujenene - osuka e-Iraq ngo-2011 ukuthi, eminyakeni embalwa kamuva ezweni lapho ayebukele khona abangani befa, i-US izosebenza njengokwesekwa kwe-Iran emoyeni. Cabanga nje ukube ubumtshele ukuthi uWashington uzobe esiza amanye amasosha aseShia afanayo atshala ama-IED ukuze abulale abantu baseMelika balandele amaSunni - futhi empeleni becela ithuba lokwenza kanjalo. Ubani owake wayibamba?
Imikhawulo Yamandla Omoya 101
I-White House ngokungangabazeki kucatshangelwe ukuthi amabhomu ase-U.S. azobonakala njengento enqumayo e-Tikrit nokuthi uhulumeni wehlelo e-Baghdad uzofika ngokwemveloโฆ Ini? Njengathi kangcono kunama-Irani?
Kuyinqaba njengoba โisuโ elinjalo lingase libonakale ebusweni balo, lifakazele ngisho nokungaziwa ngokusebenza. Inkinga enkulu ngamandla omoya ukuthi, nakuba inhle ekwephuleni izinto, ayinqumeli. Akukwazi ukucacisa ukuthi ubani ozongena esithabathabeni sombusi ngemuva kokuthi kusuke uthuli. Amabutho aphansi kuphela angenza lokho, ukuze ukunqoba ku-Islamic State e-Tikrit, noma ngabe iziteleka zasemoyeni zadlala yiphi indima, zinganika amandla lawo masosha e-Shia asekelwa yi-Iranian. Akudingeki ube uchwepheshe wezempi ukuze wazi ukuthi lena yimvelo yamandla omoya, okwenza kusimangaze nakakhulu ukuthi osomaqhinga baseMelika babonakala beyizimpumputhe ngakho.
Mayelana nokuthanda iWashington kangcono ngesandla sayo sokusiza, kunezimpawu ezimbalwa zalokho. Izikhulu zaseBaghdad azizange zisho lutho ngegalelo leMelika, zincoma kuphela "ukusabalala kwezindiza zase-Iraqi kanye nomfelandawonye wamazwe ngamazwe." Amasosha aseShia aphansi acasulwe futhi adelela i-United States - njengoba ebona - ukuphazamisa emizamweni yabo yokuthatha iTikrit bebodwa.
Ukunqoba kulelo dolobha kuzokhulisa ukuthembela kukahulumeni ezikhungweni zezempi, uNdunankulu uHaider al-Abadi manje. ibhekisela "njengamavolontiya adumile," kunokuba inani elilinganiselwe lamasosha amaMelika kuze kube manje akwazi ukuqeqeshwa. (I-Pentagon ingase, ngendlela, ifune ukubona ukuthi i-Iran ingakwazi yini ukudlulisa noma yimaphi amathiphu okuqeqesha, njengoba amasosha abo, ngokungafani nebutho lase-Iraqi elisekelwa iMelika, kubonakala enza kahle.) Lokho futhi kusho ukuthi uhulumeni ngeke abe nawo. ukukhetha kodwa ukubekezelela amasosha angamaShia ububi kanye nezenzo ze Ukuhlanzwa kobuzwe asenawo kakade kuthathiwe indawo eSunni Tikrit futhi ngokuqinisekile izolandela kunoma yiziphi ezinye izindawo zamaSunni ngendlela efanayo โekhululiwe.โ Izimangalo eziphuma eWashington zokuthi i-U.S. izobe iqapha ngokucophelela izenzo zamabutho ase-Iraqi ziya ngokuya ziba yize.
Lokho uTikrit akwenzile, empeleni, ukuqinisa i-Iran ithonya phezu kukaNdunankulu u-al-Abadi, okwamanje ongaphezu kwebamba likameya waseBaghdad, owathi bathi ukunqoba eTikrit njengendlela yokwandisa udumo lwakhe. Lokhu kuwina kuphinde kuvumele uhulumeni wakhe ophethwe yiShia ukuthi athathe ukulawula amanxiwa aleyo ndawo eyake yaba ngamaSunni. Futhi akekho okufanele aphuthelwe uphawu olusobala olutholakala eqinisweni lokuthi idolobha lokuqala elikhulu elithathwe e-Islamic State endaweni yamaSunni liyindawo yokuzalwa kukaSaddam Hussein.
Okungcono kakhulu abaphathi baka-Obama abangakwenza ukubuka ngokungenakuzisiza njengoba uTehran noBaghdad bethatha okwabo iminsalo. Isifanekiso senzelwe ikusasa lapho ezinye izindawo zamaSunni, okuhlanganisa nedolobha lesibili ngobukhulu ezweni, iMosul, namadolobha amaSunni esifundazweni sase-Anbar zizophinde zithathwe ngokufanayo, mhlawumbe ngosizo lwamandla omoya waseMelika kodwa cishe ngesikweletu esincane esiya eWashington. .
I-Iran eSyria, Lebanon naseYemen
I-Tehran manje idlala indima ebalulekile efanayo kwezinye izindawo lapho ukukhubeka kwenqubomgomo yase-US kushiye izikhala, ikakhulukazi eSyria, Lebanon naseYemen.
E-Syria, amabutho ase-Irani, kuhlanganise ne-Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, iQods Force, kanye nezinsizakalo zabo zezobunhloli, luleka futhi usize Ibutho likaBashar al-Assad. Baphinde basekele izakhi zeHezbollah ezivela eLebanon ezilwa ngasohlangothini luka-Assad. Okungcono kakhulu, iWashington iphinda idlala i-fiddle yesibili, isebenzisa amandla ayo omoya ngokumelene ne-Islamic State futhi iqeqeshe ama-Syria "aphakathi" nawokuqala, abokuqala kubo. wenqabile ukuze baze babonakale empini yabo yokuqala.
E-Yemen, umbuso osekelwa yi-US, osekelwa abeluleki be-Special Forces kanye nomkhankaso wokubulala oqondiswe ngokuphelele we-drone, osanda kubhidlika. Inxusa laseMelika lasuswa ngoFebhuwari, okokugcina kulabo beluleki ngoMashi. Ukuthathwa kwenhloko-dolobha, iSanaโa, futhi kamuva nezingxenye ezibalulekile zezwe lonke ngamaHouthi, iqembu elincane lamaShiite angamavukela-mbuso, kumelela, ngamazwi elinye. Inqubomgomo Yangaphandle umlobi"Ukunqoba okukhulu kwe-Iran ... isinqumo samaHouthis sokuhlanganisa isiphetho sawo nezinhlelo zesifunda saseTehran sibeka engcupheni yokuhlukanisa iYemen futhi sifake izwe esiphithiphithini."
I-Saudis yethuka ngokushesha wangenela futhi ngokushesha ixhaswe ngokufaka kwabaphathi baka-Obama i-United States kwenye futhi ukungqubuzana ngomyalelo wokuphatha. Iziteleka zomoya zaseSaudi ezingapheli (mhlawumbe zisebenzisa ezinye ze $ 640 million amabhomu e-cluster athengiswa yi-US ngonyaka odlule). kusekelwe ngomunye futhi umfelandawonye, โโngalesi sikhathi iSudan, i-Egypt, i-United Arab Emirates, kanye neminye imibuso yamaSunni esifundeni. Usongo lokuhlasela, okungenzeka lusetshenziswe EGibhithe amabutho, ama-looms. Ama-Irani abenayo imikhumbi ethuthile endaweni ngenxa yokuvinjwa kwemikhumbi yempi yaseSaudi yaseYemen.
Noma ngabe kwenzekani, i-Iran izoqiniswa. Kuphakathi kokuthi izozithola isebudlelwaneni beklayenti nenhlangano yamaHouthi esedlulele emngceleni waseSaudi noma, uma iphindiselwa emuva, isiphithiphithi izwe e-Yemen elinehlumela le-al-Qaeda elihlala liqina. Noma yimuphi umphumela ngokungangabazeki uzohlukanisa amaSaudis (namaMelika) futhi uhlale kahle ne-Iran.
Ukwenza izinto zibe ngcono nakakhulu endaweni eyizicucu, amavukela-mbuso amaSunni angena ngokunyenya evela ezweni elingumakhelwane iPakistan muva nje. wabulawa onogada basemngceleni base-Iran abayisishiyagalombili. Lokhu cishe bekumele ukuhlasela kokuziphindiselela emuva kokuhilizisana kwaphambilini lapho i-Iranian Revolutionary Guards yabulala khona abasolwa abathathu ababengamasosha e-Pakistani Sunni. Uma usuqalile, imililo ijwayele ukubhebhetheka.
Kulabo abagcina amaphuzu ekhaya, ama-Irani manje abambe izikhundla ezibalulekile emazweni amathathu aseMpumalanga Ephakathi (noma okungenani izingcezu zamazwe angaphambili) ngaphezu kwe-Iraq.
I-Iran Iyakhuphuka kanye Nombuzo Wenuzi
I-Iran isesimweni esihle sokukhuphuka. Ngokwe-geopolitical, iyodwa esifundeni iyisizwe ebesikhona ngaphezulu noma ngaphansi kwemingcele yaso izinkulungwane zeminyaka. Icishe izinze ngokuphelele ngokobuhlanga futhi ngokwenkolo, amasiko, kanye nolimi olulodwa, kanye nedlanzana layo ngokuqhathaniswa isilawuli. Ngenkathi isabuswa ingxenye enkulu ngabefundisi bayo, i-Iran ibone izinguquko eziguqukayo zokhetho lwentando yeningi ezingeni lezwe. Ngokwepolitiki, umlando usohlangothini lwe-Iran. Uma ubeka eceleni i-1953 Ukuketula umbuso okusekelwe yi-CIA eyaketula undunankulu okhethwe ngokwentando yeningi u-Mohammad Mosaddegh futhi yabeka u-Shah osekelwa yi-US emandleni isikhathi esingangekota yekhulu, i-Iran isilungise ukubusa kwayo iyodwa isikhathi esithile.
Ngandlela-thile, naphezu kwamashumi eminyaka unswinyo, Iran, ne Okwesine ngobukhulu Izinqolobane zikawoyela ongahluziwe ezifakazelwe kanye nendawo yesibili ngobukhulu emhlabeni, ikwazile ukubamba umnotho wayo ndawonye, โโidayisa ukuthi imuphi uwoyela engakwazi ukuwenza ngokuyinhloko. Asia. Isilungele ukuthengisa uwoyela owengeziwe ngokushesha nje lapho unswinyo lusuka. Inezempi evamile ehloniphekile ngokwezindinganiso zendawo. Kubikwa ukuthi intsha yayo fisa ukusebenzelana okukhulu neNtshonalanga. Ngokungafani cishe nazo zonke ezinye izizwe eMpumalanga Ephakathi, abaholi base-Iran ababusi ngokwesaba inguquko yamaSulumane. Base benayo kakade - eminyakeni engu-36 edlule.
Muva nje, i-U.S., Iran, kanye ne-P5 (iBrithani, iFrance, iJalimane, iRussia, neChina) bafinyelele isivumelwano sokuqala sokuluvala ngokuphawulekayo uhlelo lwenuzi lwalelo zwe futhi basuse unswinyo. Kubonakala sengathi bobabili abaphathi baka-Obama kanye noTehran bamagange ukukuguqula kube umbhalo osemthethweni ekupheleni kukaJuni. Isivumelwano asisona isivumelwano kuze kube kusayinwa kulayini onamachashazi, futhi amaRepublican eCongress alola imimese yawo, kodwa inhloso ilapho ngokusobala.
Ukugcina izingxoxo zisendleleni, ekupheleni kukaJuni abaphathi baka-Obama bazobe sebekhiphele i-Islamic Republic inani $ 11.9 billion Ezimpahleni ebeziqandisiwe ngaphambilini, kusukela ekuthathweni kwenxusa lase-Iranian ngo-1979 e-US eTehran. Ngokungeziwe esikhukhuleni semali esiqondile, i-US yavuma ukuthi i-Iran ingase ithengise uwoyela ongabiza u-$4.2 billion, ngaphandle kokujeziswa. I-US izophinde ivumele i-Iran imali elinganiselwa ku-$1.5 billion ekuthengisweni kwegolide, kanye nokufinyelela okulula โkokwenziwe ngosizo lwabantu.โ Uma ubeka enye indlela, othile eWashington wayefuna lokhu kabi ngokwanele ukukukhokhela.
KuMongameli u-Obama kanye nabeluleki bakhe, lesi sivumelwano ngokusobala siwukubamba sekwephuzile (noma mhlawumbe okokugcina) ekwakhiweni kwefa, futhi mhlawumbe nokugwazwa okunecala ekuthetheleleni lowo Mklomelo Wokuthula KaNobel wangowezi-2009. Isifiso sokufaka uhlobo oluthile lwempumelelo yenqubomgomo yezangaphandle ezincwadini zomlando zesikhathi esizayo, okwamanje, ezisabisa ngokufunda kabi kulula ngokwanele ukukuqonda. Ngakho-ke akufanele kusimangaze muntu ukuthi uJohn Kerry, u-Obama kanye i-globetrotting Unobhala Wezwe, ngokuyisisekelo wahlala eSwitzerland ukuze axoxisane nama-Irani. Wahlala etafuleni eLausanne kuxoxisana ngenkathi uTikrit evutha, iSyria yancipha, izwe lakhe laxoshwa eYemen, futhi amaSaudis aqala impi yawo kulelo zwe elihlukunyeziwe. Ukuthi wayengenalutho angalusho nganoma yisiphi salezo zenzakalo, noma okuningi kwanoma yini enye eyenzekayo emhlabeni ngaleso sikhathi, kuyinkomba yokuthi abaphathi baka-Obama babeka inani elingakanani kulezo zingxoxo zenuzi.
Kubantu base-Irani, inqubekelaphambili yokuhweba ekwakheni izikhali zenuzi ukuze kususwe unswinyo ngokuphelele kwakuyisipho esikhangayo. Phela abaholi balo bayazi ukuthi izwe alisoze lahamba ngezikhali zenuzi ngokugcwele ngaphandle kokuqinisekisa iziteleka zakwa-Israel ezicekela phansi, futhi lilahlekelwe kancane ngesivumelwano esikhona ngesikhathi lizuza okuningi. Ukwamukelwa njengontanga yiWashington ezingxoxweni ezinjalo kuphela kusungula isimo sezwe labo njengamandla esifunda. Ngaphezu kwalokho, isivumelwano senuzi esandisa noma yikuphi ukungezwani phakathi kwe-US, Israel, kanye neSaudis sidlala ngamandla amasha kaTehran. Okokugcina, umnotho onamandla okungenzeka ukuthi uqhakaze uma unswinyo usususiwe uzonikeza izwe ithuba lemali engenayo emisha kanye nokuvuselelwa kokutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe. (Kulula ukucabanga osomabhizinisi baseShayina ku-Orbitz benza ukubhuka emoyeni njengoba ufunda lokhu.) Umnqobi omkhulu esivumelwaneni senuzi akunzima ukumyeka.
Yini Okuphambili
Kulezi zinyanga zokugcina, naphezu kokukhala okuthukuthele, okwesabekayo kanye nezimfuno zikaNdunankulu wakwa-Israel uBenjamin Netanyahu, amalungu omndeni wasebukhosini waseSaudi i-neo- namanye ama-Conservatives eCongress, i-Iran ikhombise izimpawu ezimbalwa zokufisa uhlobo lokuzibhubhisa oluzobandakanya i-nuclear. (Ukube i-Iran yayidale ibhomu njalo lapho uNetanyahu ethi basengcupheni yokuba nelilodwa emashumini amabili eminyaka edlule, iTehran yayizogcwala yonke indawo.) Eqinisweni, ukuhweba ngamafu amakhowe no-Israyeli futhi ngokunokwenzeka i-U.S. ayizange ibukeke njengento ekhangayo. inhloso kubuholi base-Iran. Kunalokho, bancamela ukufuna uhlobo oluvamile lwethonya kulo lonke elaseMpumalanga Ephakathi. Babengebodwa kulokho, kodwa impumelelo yabo ibe yinto eyodwa esifundeni kule minyaka.
I-U.S. ihlinzeke ngezifundo zamahhala e-Afghanistan nase-Iraq zokuthi kungani empeleni ukuhlala endaweni engeyona indlela eya emathonyeni anjalo. Abaholi base-Iran abazange basishaye indiva iseluleko. Esikhundleni salokho, ukukhuphuka kwe-Iran kushukunyiswe iqoqo lezifunda zamakhasimende, ohulumeni abavumelanayo, amasosha anozwela kanye/noma abonayo, futhi - lapho konke okunye kwehluleka - amazwe angewona agcwele isiphithiphithi athembisa inkathazo encane kanye nokulimala eTehran kunezitha zayo ezihlukahlukene ezingaba khona.
Naphezu kwezinzuzo ze-Iran, i-US izobe iseyingane enkulu kunazo zonke ebhulokhi iminyaka, mhlawumbe amashumi eminyaka ezayo. Omunye unethemba lokuthi iMelika ngeke isebenzise lawo mandla ezempi nezomnotho ukugxeka amandla amasha esifunda eyasiza umbelethisi ngokungaqondile. Futhi uma noma yikuphi kwalokhu kukhombisa ukungqubuzana kwe-US okuzayo ne-Iran โesinamandla kakhulu,โ khona-ke sizobe sibonile indida enkulu, inhlekelele enkulu, nokumoshwa okubi kwegazi nezinsiza zaseMelika.
UPeter Van Buren washaya impempe ngokuchithwa koMnyango Wezwe kanye nokungaphathi kahle ngesikhathi kwakhiwa kabusha i-Iraqi encwadini yakhe yokuqala, Besiqonde Kahle: Ukuthi Ngisize Kanjani Ukulahlekelwa Impi Yezinhliziyo Nezingqondo Zabantu Base-Iraq. A UTom Dispatch Njalo, ubhala ngezenzakalo zamanje engosini yakhe, Besisho Kahle. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi Izipoki zika-Tom Joad: Indaba ye-#99Percent.
Lesi sihloko sivele okokuqala ku-TomDispatch.com, i-weblog ye-Nation Institute, enikeza ukugeleza okuqhubekayo kweminye imithombo, izindaba, kanye nemibono evela ku-Tom Engelhardt, umhleli wesikhathi eside ekushicileleni, umsunguli we-American Empire Project, umbhali we Ukuphela Kwesiko Lokunqoba, njengenoveli, Izinsuku Zokugcina Zokushicilela. Incwadi yakhe yakamuva ithi Uhulumeni Wethunzi: Ukubhekwa, Izimpi Eziyimfihlo, kanye Nezwe Lokuphepha Lomhlaba Wonke Ezweni Elinamandla Amandla Amandla (Izincwadi Ze-Haymarket).
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Nikela