Umthombo: FAIR
U-Chávez empeleni wayezozama ukulandela izithembiso zakhe zokushintsha uhlelo futhi aqinisekise ubukhosi bezwe lakhe.
Isithombe ngu-Northfoto/Shutterstock
Isiqephu esilandelayo sithathelwe encwadini entsha yababhali, Usongo Olungajwayelekile: Umbuso WaseMelika, Abezindaba kanye Nemizamo Yeminyaka engama-20 Yemizamo Yokuketula umbuso eVenezuela., ekhishwa ngu Isibuyekezo sanyanga zonke Cindezela.
Esimeni sakhe seNyunyana ikheli ngoFebhuwari 6, 2019, uDonald Trump wathi:
Sima nabantu baseVenezuela ekufuneni kwabo inkululeko enhle—futhi siyakugxeka unya lombuso kaMaduro, izinqubomgomo zawo zezenhlalakahle eziphendule leso sizwe ekubeni esicebe kakhulu eNingizimu Melika saba isimo sobumpofu nokuphelelwa ithemba.
Ukuphawula kukaTrump okuhlekisayo akubhekwanga njengengxabano, ngoba abezindaba baseNtshonalanga, kubandakanya nezitolo ezilwa noTrump njenge New York Times, baye bachitha iminyaka eminingi bedlulisa amanga: ukuthi iVenezuela yayichume kakhulu futhi ibusa ngentando yeningi kwaze kwaba yilapho uHugo Chávez, kwase kuba umlandeli wakhe uNicolás Maduro, efika futhi echitha yonke into. Uma abafundi bekholelwa lokho, khona-ke bangase bazibuze, "Kungani uhulumeni wase-US engafanele ukusiza abantu baseVenezuela babuyele kuleso simo esiphumelelayo?"
Kodwa lesi simo sengqondo siwumphumela wokukhohlisa okuvamile ngomlando wezomnotho waseVenezuela, futhi akunaki ukuthi ukukhuphuka kweChávez empeleni kulethe kanjani uguquko lwentando yeningi, hhayi ukuhlehla, eVenezuela. Indaba exoxwa ngabezindaba baseNtshonalanga kufanele yenze abantu bazibuze ukuthi ngabe iChavismo yayingaba kanjani amandla epolitiki abusayo ukube yonke into yake yaba yinhle kakhulu eVenezuela.
'Kwake kwaba cebile'
Lesi simangalo esingacacile esimayelana nomlando wezomnotho waseVenezuela, ngezindlela ezihlukahlukene—“yake yachuma,” “eyake yacebe kakhulu”—sesitholakala yonke indawo kwabezindaba zaseNtshonalanga. Ukusesha kwe-Nexis kwamaphephandaba esiNgisi esithi "Venezuela" kanye "kanye nokuchuma" kuveze izingoma ezishisa izikhotha ezingama-563 phakathi kuka-2015 no-2019.
Isimangalo "esake saphumelela" asikwazi ukubhekisa engcebweni yemvelo yaseVenezuela: Izinqolobane ezinkulu zikawoyela negolide zisekhona. Inhloso ecacile yokuchaza iVenezuela ngokuthi “yake yaphumelela” ukuphakamisa ukuthi izimo zokuphila “zake zaba” nezezwe elicebile.
Ngakho-ke iVenezuela “yake yaceba” ngasiphi isilinganiso? Kwakunini ngempela lokho? Iyiphi indlela yokukala esetshenziswayo ukusho ukuthi ibicebe kakhulu? Ingabe yake yaba ku-10% ophezulu (nganoma yisiphi isilinganiso)? Ama-50% aphezulu?
Kuhlala kushiwo ukuthi izinsuku zenkazimulo yezomnotho zase-Venezuela zazisenkathini yangaphambi kwe-Chávez, kodwa intatheli yezezimali u-Jason Mitchell wenze lesi simangalo ngokusobala. Ukubhalela i-UK Usinga (2/18/17), wathi, “Eminyakeni engamashumi amabili edlule iVenezuela yayingelinye lamazwe acebe kakhulu emhlabeni.” Ngakho-ke iVenezuela kwakucatshangwa ukuthi yayijabulela isikhundla sayo esicebile ngo-1997, unyaka ngaphambi kokuba uHugo Chávez aqokwe okokuqala. Lokho kungamampunge.
Eqinisweni, lapho uChávez ekhethwa okokuqala ngo-1998, iVenezuela yayinamaphesenti angama-50. izinga lobumpofu, naphezu kokuba umthumeli kawoyela omkhulu amashumi eminyaka ambalwa. It waqala ukuthumela ngaphandle uwoyela ngeminyaka yawo-1920s, futhi kwaba ekuqaleni kwawo-1970 lapho abakhiqizi bakawoyela abakhulu baseMpumalanga Ephakathi, iSaudi Arabia ne-Iran. idlulile I-Venezuela ekukhiqizeni. Ngo-1992, i- New York Times (2/5/92) kubike ukuthi “bangama-57% kuphela abantu baseVenezuela abakwazi ukuthenga ukudla okungaphezu kokukodwa ngosuku.” Ingabe lokho kuzwakala “njengelinye lamazwe acebe kakhulu emhlabeni”? Ngokusobala akunjalo, kodwa kufanelekile ukusho okwengeziwe ngezibalo ezingasetshenziswa ukudukisa abantu ngomlando wezomnotho waseVenezuela.
Imali engenayo kanye nokusabalalisa
Izazi zezomnotho zivame ukusebenzisa I-GDP ngayinye ukuhlola ukuthi izwe linothile kangakanani. Ngokuyisisekelo isilinganiso sesilinganiso semali engenayo yomuntu ngamunye. Ukube izintatheli bezinendaba nokunemba lapho zithi iVenezuela yake yaba “ecebile,” kusho ukuthi yizibalo ezingasicaphuna.
Ishadi elingezansi libonisa idatha yeBhange Lomhlaba ye-GDP yangempela yase-Venezuela (eshintshiwe ngokwenyuka kwamandla emali) ngomuntu ngamunye kusukela ngo-1960, futhi liphikisana nendaba yabezindaba yaseNtshonalanga egqugquzelwa ngokungaphezi yokuthi uguquko olusuka empumelelweni luye ebumpofu lwenzeka ngenxa ye-Chavismo. I-GDP yangempela ngomuntu ngamunye ifinyelele phezulu 1977, ngasekupheleni kwe-boom kawoyela, bese kuncipha isikhathi eside. Lapho uChávez ethatha izintambo ngo-1999, wayekwelinye lamaphuzu aphansi kakhulu emashumini eminyaka. Kwabe sekwehla nakakhulu imizamo yokuqala emibili yokuketula uChávez esikhundleni: ukuketulwa umbuso kuka-April 2002 futhi, ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kamuva, ukuvalwa kwenkampani kawoyela kahulumeni—“isiteleka sikawoyela.” Ngo-2013, i-GDP yangempela ngomuntu ngamunye yalulama ngendlela emangalisayo, yacishe yafinyelela inani eliphakeme kakhulu lika-1977.
Ngaphansi kwe-Chávez, izinga lobumpofu lanqanyulwa ngesigamu, ngakho-ke kukhona ukuhlobana phakathi kwe-GDP ngomuntu ngamunye nezimo zokuphila eVenezuela. Kepha i-GDP yezwe ngomuntu ngamunye, ngokwayo, ayisho lutho ngokuthi imali engenayo yabiwa kanjani. Futhi lokho kungenza futhi ukuqhathanisa kwamazwe omhlaba kudukise kakhulu.
Isibonelo, i-1980 yayiseduze kakhulu nenani eliphakeme elingokomlando laseVenezuela ku-GDP yangempela ngomuntu ngamunye, ikleliswe endaweni yama-32 emhlabeni ngalowo nyaka lapho kulungiswa ukuze kuthengwe amandla okulingana, njengoba izazi zezomnotho zitusa ukuze kuqhathaniswe amazwe ngamazwe. Kodwa izinga lokufa kwezinsana zalo likleliswe endaweni yama-58 emhlabeni, ngaphansi kakhulu kweCuba, izinga lokufa kwezinsana zalo laliku-28 ngalowo nyaka. Ukufa kwezinsana kuyinkomba yezempilo eyisisekelo esiza ekuvezeni izinga umcebo wezwe osetshenziswa ngalo ukuzuzisa abantu balo. Eqinisweni, izinga lokufa kwezinsana zaseVenezuela ngo-1980 lalinjalo ngaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kukhulu njengalokho eCuba.
Omunye unyaka okuvezwe ngawo umlando ngo-1989, lapho kwenzeka khona ukubulawa kwabantu abampofu kamuva ababizwa ngokuthi iCaracazo. Ngokwe-GDP nge-capita ngayinye (ilungiselwe ukuthenga i-parity yamandla), i-Venezuela zibalwa phezulu eMelika Ephakathi neseNingizimu—kuyilapho uhulumeni wawo enza ukubulawa kwabantu abampofu okunedumela elibi kunawo wonke emlandweni wawo wanamuhla.
Lesi sibhicongo sadalula imvelo ewumgunyathi yokuchuma kanye nentando yeningi yaseVenezuela. Ichaza ngokunyuka kukaChávez, futhi iveza nokuthi uhulumeni wase-US kanye nabezindaba basize kanjani uhulumeni waseVenezuela owadala lesi sibhicongo.
Ukusuka eCaracazo kuya eChavismo
Yaqala ngo-February 27, 1989. Amasosha aseVenezuela wabulala amakhulu, futhi ngokunokwenzeka izinkulungwane, zabantu abampofu phakathi nenkathi yezinsuku ezinhlanu. Abampofu bavukele ekuvukeleni uhlelo olubekwe yi-IMF “lokulungiswa kwesakhiwo” olubandakanya ukukhushulwa kanzima kwamanani kaphethiloli kanye nemali yokugibela amabhasi. Lolu hlelo lwabekwa nguMongameli uCarlos Andres Pérez, indoda eyayikhankasile Bethi ukuthi izinhlelo ze-IMF zazifana “nebhomu lenutroni elabulala abantu kodwa lashiya izakhiwo zimile.”
Umongameli wase-US uGeorge H. W. Bush esibizwa Pérez ngoMashi 3, 1989, ngenkathi isibhicongo saseCaracazo sisenzeka, ukuze axolise noPérez futhi anikeze imalimboleko yaseVenezuela. Ukulandisa kwezindaba zase-US zaseVenezuela kufanelana nenqubomgomo kaBush yangaphandle. A New York Times isihloko (11/11/90) mayelana neVenezuela kaClifford Krauss uchaze uPérez “njengomuntu othanda intando yeningi emphakathini.” Akukho nelilodwa igama elabhalwa ngesibhicongo saseCaracazo. Lesi sihloko sigxile ekubongeni kukaBush kuPérez, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ngokukhuphula ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela waseVenezuela ukusiza ukuvikela iMelika emiphumeleni emibi yezomnotho ngemuva kokuhlasela kwe-Iraqi eKuwait.
NgoFebhuwari 5, 1992, uLieutenant Colonel Hugo Chávez waqala ukwaziwa kabanzi kubantu baseVenezuela ngokuzama ukuketula umbuso wamasosha. Ngosuku okwabhuntsha ngalo ukuketulwa kukaChávez, isihloko sezindaba kumagazini we- New York Times (2/5/92) wabiza iVenezuela ngokuthi "omunye wohulumeni bentando yeningi ozinzile eLatin America," futhi uPérez ngokwakhe ngokuthi "intando yeningi ehamba phambili," naphezu kwesibhicongo saseCaracazo eminyakeni emithathu kuphela ngaphambili, okungakaze kukhulunywe ngakho. I Times futhi wacaphuna ngaleso sikhathi-uMongameli Bush ebiza uPérez "ngomunye wabaholi abakhulu bentando yeningi enkabazwe yethu."
Hhayi omunye uPérez
Lapho uChávez eqala ukusebenza ngemva kokhetho ngo-1999, uhulumeni wase-US akazange aqale ukuhlasela. Uma ucubungula inkulumo-ze yomkhankaso wokulwa ne-IMF kaCarlos Andres Pérez—umongameli owabe esebulala abantu abaningi ukuze enze uhlelo lwe-IMF lokungabi namali—akumangazi ukuthi i-US izomuzwa uChávez isikhashana. Mhlawumbe uChávez wayezoba umkhohlisi ngendlela efanayo—ngakho-ke kufanele ukusekelwa yi-US.
Ngo-2001, uhulumeni wase-US wabona ukuthi u-Chávez wayengeke afane no-Pérez, owenza ihlaya eligulayo ngenkulumo yakhe ephikisana ne-IMF lapho esesikhundleni. U-Chávez empeleni wayezozama ukulandela izithembiso zakhe zokushintsha uhlelo futhi aqinisekise ubukhosi bezwe lakhe. U-Chávez wamelana kabi nokuhlasela kwe-US e-Afghanistan, waze washo nokuthi inxusa laseMelika lafika limbiza futhi lamcela ngendelelo ukuthi ahlehlise isikhundla sakhe. Lokho kwamcasula uChávez ukuba akhiphe umyalo wokuba inxusa liphume ekamelweni. Lesi bekungumcimbi obalulekile ekubhujisweni kobudlelwane baseVenezuela/base-US (uBart Jones, Hugo!, I-Steerforth Press, 2007, k. 297).
Ngasekhaya, u-Chávez naye waba nesikhathi esifushane se-honeymoon neqembu elidala lase-Venezuela le-elite neliphakathi. Njengoba uGregory Wilpert ebeka Ukushintsha iVenezuela Ngokuthatha Amandla (I-Verso, 2006, p. 20):
Ngenkathi u-Chávez eqala ukuthatha izintambo, wajabulela izilinganiso zokugunyazwa ezingu-90%, ezingaphakamisa ukuthi ukucwasa ngokwebala nokwehluka kwesigaba sokugcina sokuphikiswa kwe-Chávez kwakungeke kube into ebalulekile.
Isigaba esiphakathi saseVenezuela sase singena ebumpofu amashumi amabili eminyaka futhi seseka uChávez ngo-1998 ngoba babelangazelela ushintsho.
Kodwa ngokushesha nje, izikhulu zezombangazwe ezindala, njengenxusa laseMelika, zamcasula kakhulu uChávez egomela igunya lakhe. Babelindele ukuhlonishwa kukaChávez. Imvelaphi yakhe yase-Afrika kanye neyoMdabu, kanye nemvelaphi yakhe yesigaba sabasebenzi, kwakungase kunganakwa, kwaze kwaba yilapho egwema abadayisi abavamile lapho eqoka kwikhabhinethi yakhe.
Udweshu lwashuba ngesikhathi isigungu esiphezulu, esakhethwa ngabavoti, sibhala umthethosisekelo omusha owabe usuphasiswa kunhlolovo. Iziphathimandla zezinguquko zaqokwa ngaphansi komyalelo omusha wentando yeningi. Njengoba uWilpert echaza (Ukushintsha iVenezuela, k. I-20):
Izicukuthwane ezindala zabe sezisebenzisa ukulawula kwazo imithombo yezindaba yezwe ukuze ziguqule isigaba esiphakathi simelane noChávez, kwakha umkhankaso owasizakala ngokucwasa okucashile nokucwasa ngokwezigaba zesiko laseVenezuela.
Ngo-2004, ngokubikezelwa, u-Chávez wayethembele kakhulu ekusekelweni abantu abampofu ukuze anqobe ukhetho (Ukushintsha iVenezuela, p. 268–269).
Umthethosisekelo omusha, inkathi entsha
Ngonyaka wokuqala ethatha izintambo, uChávez waqala inqubo enezinyathelo ezintathu ukunikeza iVenezuela umthethosisekelo omusha. Ngo-April 1999, waya kubavoti ebuza ukuthi bayafuna yini ukuqalisa lolu hlelo ngokukhetha umhlangano womthethosisekelo, nokuthi bayayivuma yini imithetho ecacisa ukuthi umhlangano uzokhethwa kanjani. Uhlangothi lwakhe luwine leyo nhlolovo ngamavoti angama-92% embuzweni wokuqala, kwathi ngo-86% kowesibili (okucaciswe imithetho eyisisekelo yokhetho) (Ukushintsha iVenezuela, iphe. I-21).
NgoJulayi kube nokhetho lokukhetha amalungu omhlangano. Abalandeli bakaChávez bawine izihlalo ezingu-125 kwezingu-131 zomhlangano. Umhlangano wabe usubhala umthethosisekelo, kwathi ezinyangeni ezine kamuva, wagunyazwa ngabavoti abangama-72% kwenye inhlolovo.
Umhlangano uphinde waqoka indikimba yezinguquko, eyaziwa ngokuthi iCongressillo (ingqungquthela encane), eyaqoka ummeli-jikelele omusha, umvikeli wamalungelo abantu, umqaphi Jikelele, umkhandlu kazwelonke wokhetho kanye nenkantolo ephakeme.
NgoJulayi 2000, uChávez waya kubavoti futhi ukuze athole igunya elisha likamongameli ngaphansi komthethosisekelo omusha futhi wanqoba kalula ngamavoti angu-59.8%. Kodwa lolu “kwakuwukhetho olukhulu,” njengoba uWilpert (Ukushintsha iVenezuela, p. 22) ikubeka, lezo "ezisuse izikhulu zezombusazwe zezwe cishe ngokuphelele ezindaweni eziphakeme zezikhungo zomphakathi zaseVenezuela":
Abantu abayizinkulungwane ezingamashumi amathathu nantathu bagijimela amahhovisi angaphezu kuka-6,000 ngalolo suku. Ekugcineni, u-Chávez uphinde waqinisekiswa esikhundleni ngamavoti angama-59.8%. Abalandeli bakaChávez bawine izihlalo eziyi-104 kwezingu-165 zeSishayamthetho Sikazwelonke kanye nezingu-17 kwezingama-23 zokuphatha. Ezingeni lendawo, amakhandidethi eChávez awaphumelelanga kangako, awina kuphela ingxenye yezikhundla zezimeya zomasipala.
Ominously, a New York Times Umhleli ngo-August 1999 kakade kwakucatshangwa ukuthi uzofundisa abantu baseVenezuela futhi kuhlanekezelwe inqubo yezinguquko yentando yeningi njengokuthatha amandla:
Kufanele baqaphe kakhulu izindlela uMnu. Chávez azisebenzisayo. Uzidonsela amandla ezandleni zakhe, futhi usebenzisa kabi umhlangano womhlangano oyisipesheli womthethosisekelo manje oseCaracas owakhiwe cishe bonke abalandeli bakhe.
UMnu. Chávez, owayengumkhuzi wama-paratroop owabamba ukuketulwa kwezempi kwezempi okungaphumelelanga ngo-1992, kuze kube manje akabonisi inhlonipho encane ngokuyekethisa okudingekayo embusweni wentando yeningi, iVenezuela osekuyiminyaka engu-40 yaba nayo.
Ngokusobala, noma iyiphi inqubo yenguquko yangempela eLatin America yayizohlanjalazwa yizikhungo ezikhululekile njenge New York Times.
Amanga abalulekile
Amanga adalulwe mayelana nesikhathi esedlule saseVenezuela enza ulaka lwase-US ngokumelene nayo lube khona njengamanje. Kufanelekile ukufingqa amanye alawa manga abalulekile:
- IVenezuela “yake yachuma” futhi yacekelwa phansi ukusebenzelana kwabantu. Eqinisweni, iVenezuela yayiyizwe elingalingani lapho iningi labantu lalimpofu naphezu komcebo kawoyela wezwe, owawungenise imali enkulu yokuthekelisa kwamanye amazwe kusukela ngawo-1920s.
- IVenezuela yayiyintando yeningi ngaphambi kweChavismo. Eqinisweni, umbuso wentando yeningi waseVenezuela wawuwuhlelo olunephutha elikhulu lapho osopolitiki beshintshana khona ngokubamba amandla ngokwesivumelwano esingeyona intando yeningi, futhi banciphisa ukuqina kwemiqala yabampofu baseVenezuela ngokwenza izibhicongo, njengeCaracazo.
- I-Chavismo yonakalise intando yeningi yaseVenezuela. U-Chávez wazama ngempela ukuketula umbuso ngo-1992, kodwa wangena esikhundleni ngokhetho lwango-1998, futhi ngemva kwalokho wenza izinguquko ngezinqubo ezibanzi zentando yeningi.
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