Ma projekiti awiri amgwirizano wachigawo akukumana ku South America: Pacific Alliance ndi UNASUR. Zonsezi ndi zosagwirizana, kutengera zofuna za mayiko omwe amatsutsana nawo zomwe zimapatsa maiko onse amderali vuto. Palibenso malo anzeru kapena zododometsa.
"Pali chizolowezi china pakati pa malingaliro athu ophatikizana olowetsa malingaliro ambiri pazantchito zosiyanasiyana zachigawo," adalemba Carlos Chacho Alvarez, mlembi wamkulu wa ALADI (Tiempo Argentino, Juni 2, 2013). Chifukwa cha izi amakhulupirira kuti kutsutsa Pacific Alliance ku Mercosur yokulirapo "zimayimira chizindikiro choyipa, ngati sichobwerera m'mbuyo". Mulimonse momwe zingakhalire, Alvarez amayika gawo lake pa UNASUR ndi CELAC "monga ma projekiti awiri omwe amafunitsitsa kwambiri komanso ofunikira m'derali", omwe popatula United States ndi Canada amawulula malingaliro awo (1).
"Kontinenti yagawika", akutero Purezidenti wakale waku Brazil Henrique Cardoso ponena za kubadwa kwa Pacific Alliance (Vuto, Novembala 30, 2012). "Mwanjira zina tikutaya kufunika kwathu pazandale ku Continent, zomwe zinali zosakayikitsa", adawonjezera. Cardoso amakhulupirira kuti njira yopitira kudziko lake ndi "kukambitsirana mozama ndi United States," zomwe "timachita mantha nthawi zonse."
Poyang'ana pamagulu awiriwa, Purezidenti wa Peru Ollanta Humala adakumana ndi Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, pamsonkhano wa "Zaka khumi za Mgwirizano wa Strategic pakati pa Brazil ndi Peru, 2003-2013" ndipo adanena kuti m'zaka khumi adapita patsogolo kwambiri pakuphatikizana kwa Peruvia ndi Brazil komanso koposa zonse pakumvetsetsa kuti uwu ndi mgwirizano wachilengedwe wopanga bloc yanyanja ziwiri za Atlantic-Pacific." (Liwu la Russia, Juni 6, 2013).
Pazochitika zomwezo Lula adakumbukira kuti zaka khumi zapitazo adatsutsidwa kwambiri m'dziko lake chifukwa adasaina pangano la mgwirizano wa mgwirizano ndi Peru, popeza akuluakulu a ku Brazil ankaganiza kuti chitukuko chikhoza kulimbikitsidwa chifukwa cha ubale wamalonda ndi United States ndi United States. Europe: “South America kunalibe, ngakhalenso Latin America; Africa ndi maiko Aarabu kunalibe. Ndinkaganiza kuti tingasinthe malo amalonda ndi ndale za dziko ngati tidzikhulupirira tokha, koma sinali nkhani yophweka. ", adatero Purezidenti wakale.
Lula anachirikiza nkhani yake ndi deta yosatsutsika: malonda a mayiko awiriwa adachokera ku madola 650 miliyoni mu 2003 kufika pa 3,700 miliyoni mu 2012. Ndalama zachinsinsi za ku Brazil ku Peru zinakwana madola 6 biliyoni ndipo zinayambitsa vuto lalikulu: logulitsa katundu wamakampani omwe ali ndi umisiri wapamwamba kwambiri. cholinga chakuti chuma chonsecho "chigwire ntchito molumikizana". Motero mwachidziwitso adayandikira mfundo yofunika kwambiri ya njira iliyonse yophatikizana.
Mapangano a Free Trade Agwirizana pamodzi
Pacific Alliance idabadwa mu Epulo 2011 ndi "Lima Declaration", zomwe adachita Purezidenti Alan García, pakati pa mayiko anayi omwe anali ndi mgwirizano wamalonda ndi United States: Mexico, Colombia, Peru ndi Chile. Pa June 6 2012 "Mgwirizano wa Framework wa Antofagasta" unasindikizidwa ndi apurezidenti Sebastián Piñera, Juan Manuel Santos, Humala ndi Felipe Calderón. Panama ndi Costa Rica anali mamembala oyamba kuyang'ana, omwe adalumikizidwa ndi Spain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand ndi Uruguay, ndipo pambuyo pake adawonjezedwa Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Japan, Honduras, Paraguay, Portugal ndi Dominican. Republic.
Otsutsa a Alliance akuti mayiko anayi omwe akukhudzidwa akuyimira anthu 200 miliyoni, 55 peresenti ya ku Latin America zogulitsa kunja ndi 40 peresenti ya GDP m'deralo. Awiri odziwika bwino azachuma mderali, Oscar Ugarteche ndi waku Brazil José Luis Fiori, amasanthula njira zachigawo ngati masewera a chess, momwe kusuntha kwa gawo limodzi ndi m'modzi mwa osewera kuyenera kutsagana ndi kuyankha kwa wina. ndizokwanira kutsutsa komwe walandira. Pamene "kuphwanya malamulo" adachotsa Fernando Lugo m'boma, Paraguay idalekanitsidwa ndi Mercosur ndipo izi zidapangitsa kuti khomo la Venezuela litheke. Momwemonso, munthu ayenera kutanthauzira kulengedwa kwa Pacific Alliance: monga yankho la kulengedwa kwa UNASUR yotsogoleredwa ndi Brazil.
Pamene Mgwirizanowu udapangidwa, Ugarteche adalimbikira kunena kuti: "Maboma atatu aku South America a gululi (Chile, Colombia ndi Peru) amagwirizana kuti sanasaine chikalata chopanga Banco del Sur (Bank of the South), achita. osati panopa ndi mapangano malonda ndi Mercosur, kumene owona, ali ndi Mapangano Free Trade anasaina ndi United States zimene zikuphatikizapo ziro msonkho, zomwe zimalepheretsa mgwirizano uliwonse ndi Mercosur amene pansi ndi asanu peresenti, ndipo alibe yaikulu dziko mafakitale. gawo" (Ayi, Epulo 26, 2011). Mapeto ake anali akuti Mgwirizanowu ndi "wotsutsana ndi chikoka cha Brazil ku South America", chomwe "chimagwira ntchito osati kupikisana koma kuletsa chikoka chimenecho."
Komabe, m'nkhani yaposachedwa, katswiri wa zachuma akunena kuti m'zaka zaposachedwa "ndi Pacific Alliance yomwe yasintha kwambiri", osati chifukwa cha zabwino zake zokha, chifukwa cha kusakhazikika kwa Mercosur chifukwa cha kusokonekera kwa ubale pakati pa Buenos Aires. ndi Brasilia (Ayi, Epulo 24, 2013). Mwa mayendedwe awa ndi njira yomwe Paraguay adachita pambuyo pa Lugo. Ngakhale zili choncho, Mgwirizanowu ukukumana ndi mavuto ambiri, omwe amatsutsana ndi magulu a anthu amalonda a ku Colombia kuti agwirizane ndi mgwirizano womwe supereka mwayi watsopano koma "umagwira ntchito zowononga malonda ndi kupanga ntchito."
Zovuta ndi kuphatikiza
Zambiri pazachuma chakunja (DFI) zitha kuganiziridwa ngati x-ray yaderali. DFI yakula kwambiri ku South America, kuchoka ku madola mabiliyoni a 30 m'zaka zoyamba za zaka khumi za 2000 kufika ku 143 biliyoni mu 2012. Izi zikutanthauza kuti zakhala zikuwonjezeka, malinga ndi lipoti laposachedwapa la CEPAL (2).
Ndizofunikira kudziwa kuti maiko atatu a Andes a Pacific Alliance adachoka ku DFI ya 11 biliyoni ya madola kumayambiriro kwa zaka za zana lino kupita ku 58 biliyoni. Uku ndiye kukula kwakukulu m'derali. Koma zomwe zimasonyeza khalidwe la chuma cha dziko ndi gawo limene ndalamazi zimayendetsedwa.
Chile ndi dziko lachiwiri mu buku la DFI, ndi madola 30 biliyoni mu 2012, koma theka la izi ndi migodi (49 peresenti) ndi gawo limodzi mwa magawo asanu mu gawo lazachuma. Colombia idalandira DFI ya 15.6 biliyoni ya madola, koma oposa theka amapita ku mafuta ndi migodi. Ku Peru, yomwe idalandira mabiliyoni 12.2, migodi yokha imatenga theka la ndalamazo (mwina 70 peresenti, ngakhale palibe deta).
Ku Brazil ubalewu ndi wosiyana ndendende: kupanga kumatenga chinthu chofanana ndi 40 peresenti ya ndalama (kutsika kuchokera pa 47 mpaka 38 peresenti m'zaka zaposachedwa) pomwe mafakitale owonjezera amakhala pafupifupi 13 peresenti. Izi zikutanthauza kuti gawo lalikulu la ndalama zakunja zomwe zimakwana madola 66 biliyoni (malo achinayi padziko lonse lapansi pambuyo pa United States, China ndi Hong Kong) zikupita kumagulu omwe amapanga malo oyenerera ogwira ntchito ndi kupanga zoonjezera.
Argentina ili pakati pa Brazil ndi mayiko a Andes. Pambuyo pa zaka khumi zakubwerera mwamphamvu, DFI kupita ku Argentina idakula ndi 27 peresenti mu 2012 kufika pafupifupi madola 12.5 biliyoni. Kumapeto kwa 2011, kupangidwa ndi gawo la DFI ku Argentina kudakhazikika mu 44 peresenti mumakampani ndi 30 peresenti muzantchito.
Chigawo chonsecho chikuvutika, ndizowona, kuchokera ku ndondomeko ya deindustrialization chifukwa cha mpikisano waku China. Koma zotsatira zake n’zosafanana. Nthawi zina kudalira zachilengedwe kumakhala kwakukulu, zomwe zimapangitsa maikowa kudalira kwambiri mitengo yamtengo wapatali pamisika yamasheya, makamaka pakusintha kwa msika waku China. Ndizotheka kuti kukwera komwe kwatchulidwa kwa Pacific Alliance kungakhale kocheperako kuposa utsi womwe ungasokonekera mitengo ikatsika.
Dziko la Chile silingathe kutengera kuchuluka kwa DFI m'njira yopindulitsa, chifukwa 26 peresenti ya izi imabwezeretsedwanso kunja kwa dzikolo ndi mabungwe aku Chile a mabizinesi akunja. CEPAL ikumaliza kuti dziko la Andes, lomwe limaonedwa ngati chitsanzo chotsatiridwa ndi akatswiri ambiri azachuma m'derali, siloposa "chipata cholowera misika ina ya ku Latin America."
Malinga ndi Fiori, maiko atatu aku South America a Pacific Alliance "ndi chuma chaching'ono kapena chapakati cham'mphepete mwa nyanja chomwe chimaperekedwa kumayiko akunja, popanda mgwirizano uliwonse wamalonda pakati pawo, kapena ndi Mexico." Dziko lokhalo lokhala ndi nyengo yofunda ndi maiko obala zipatso, Chile, “liri pafupifupi losafunika kwenikweni ku chuma cha South America, kuwonjezera pa kukhala limodzi mwa mayiko akutali kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi,” anatero katswiri wa zachuma wa ku Brazil.
Amakhulupirira kuti Pacific Alliance ilibe tsogolo labwino. Kutumiza kwawo kunja ndi kwakukulu kuposa kwa Mercosur, koma malonda awo apakati pazigawo ndi ochepa (2 peresenti ya zonse zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja poyerekeza ndi 13 peresenti ku Mercosur). Kunena zoona, ndi mgwirizano wamalonda womwe ulibe chidwi chophatikizana.
Vuto siliri lalikulu kwambiri la zabwino za Alliance monga zamavuto omwe Mercosur akukumana nawo tsopano. Kumbali imodzi, mayiko anayi omwe adakhazikitsa (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay ndi Uruguay) amatumiza zinthu zomwezo (makamaka soya ndi ng'ombe) kumisika yomweyo. Ndi dongosolo ili la zogulitsa kunja palibe kugwirizanitsa kotheka, komwe kumafuna maziko a kuyanjana kopindulitsa. Monga momwe Fieri amanenera, kuyambira pavuto la 2008 komanso kukula kwa China, makhalidwe a chuma cha South America omwe amalepheretsa pulojekiti iliyonse yophatikizana angowonjezereka: ndiko kuti, "ndizophatikizira zachuma zomwe zimatumizidwa kunja zomwe zimayendetsedwa ndi misika yakunja" (Milatho, Ogasiti 2013).
Kuphatikiza apo, komanso zolumikizidwa mwachindunji ndi zomwe tafotokozazi, mkangano wokhazikika pakati pa Brazil ndi Argentina pa zogulitsa kunja kwa mafakitale (magalimoto ndi zida zamagetsi zapakhomo) ukusokoneza mgwirizano wachigawo. Chilichonse chaku Argentina chomwe chimabwera ku Brazil chimataya ntchito ku Brazil, mosemphanitsa. Mapangano amalonda omwe alipo komanso zosankha zophatikizira sizinapangebe mafakitale omwe angathe kuthandizirana.
Pakuyambiranso kwawo kwa ndalama zakunja ku 2012, CEPAL imasiya kukayikira: "Ku South America (kupatula Brazil) njira yogawa DFI yomwe magawo omwe amachokera kuzinthu zachilengedwe akuwonekeratu, adakula". Migodi imatenga 51 peresenti yazachuma m'derali, ntchito 37 peresenti ndi mafakitale 12 peresenti yokha.
Nthawi yosankha
"Wina anganene mosakayikira kuti 'Pacific Rift' ili ndi malingaliro ambiri kuposa kufunikira kwachuma ku Latin America ndipo ikanakhala yopanda phindu pa ndale ngati sikunali gawo laling'ono la polojekiti ya Obama yopanga Transpacific Association (TPP chifukwa cha chidule chake cha Chingerezi). gawo lapakati mu mfundo zake zotsimikiziranso mphamvu zachuma ndi zankhondo m'chigawo cha Pacific", monga Fiori amanenera (Milatho, Ogasiti 2013).
Ichi mwina ndiye chimake cha funso. Mexico ili kale gawo losasiyanitsidwa muchuma cha US. Pambuyo pavuto la 2008, lomwe linaika malire aakulu a bajeti, njira ya United States imakhala "kutulutsa" kayendetsedwe ka mphamvu zawo zapadziko lonse, koma kusamala kuti zisamangidwe za mphamvu zachigawo zomwe zingasokoneze udindo wawo komanso makamaka awo. mlengalenga ndi zombo zapamadzi. Kupyolera mu kayendetsedwe kazachuma, Fiori akutsutsa, mphamvu zazikuluzikuluzi zikupitiriza kusamutsa ndalama zake ndi zovuta zake ku mayiko achitatu, monga momwe zinachitikira ndi bwenzi lawo lalikulu, European Union, kusunga nthawi yonseyi "kulamulira mwachisawawa kwa luso lamakono."
Poyang'anizana ndi mawonekedwe awa, zosankha zamayiko ena zitha kukhala zotsimikizika, ndipo koposa zonse zomwe ziyenera kutsatiridwa ndi Brazil. Pulofesa Ricardo Sennes, katswiri wa mayiko ku yunivesite ya São Paulo, amakhulupirira kuti kukula kwachuma pambuyo pa 2002 "kunakulitsa kusiyana pakati pa njira zachuma za mayiko osiyanasiyana, ndikuwonjezera asymmetry pakati pa Brazil ndi mayiko ena a m'deralo." (3)
Pazovuta zamapangidwezi munthu ayenera kuwonjezera kuti ku Brazil "zokonda zachitsanzo za maubwenzi apakati pazigawo zotengera mphamvu za ndale za ku Brazil osati pa chitsanzo cha mgwirizano wa chigawo" zimakhalapo. Kuchulukana kwa ntchito zamabizinesi sikufanana ndi njira yophatikizira. M'malingaliro ake izi zili choncho chifukwa pali "mgwirizano wamkati" wofooka womwe umakomera mgwirizano ndipo izi zimapangitsa kuti pakhale kulimbikitsana kwakukulu kwaukazembe komwe kumasiyana ndi kuchepa kwa mabungwe ogwirizana. Pomaliza, "regionalization, kuwonjezeka kwa maubwenzi a m'madera omwe samachokera ku ndondomeko ndi mgwirizano pakati pa mayiko, apita patsogolo mofulumira komanso mozama kuposa kugwirizanitsa zigawo."
Izi zimawonekera pamene wina akuwona kuti mamembala a Mercosur akhazikitsa mapangano ozama kwambiri ndi mayiko omwe alibe mgwirizanowu kuposa momwe alili pakati pawo. Sennes akumaliza kuti kupitirira zolengeza, "projekiti ya m'chigawo cha Brazil si mbali yapakati pa ndondomeko yawo yapadziko lonse." Izi ndi mawu amphamvu, koma si zoona. Akufotokoza mwachidule motere: zokonda misonkhano yapamwamba osati mapangano a mabungwe; "Kuphatikizana kwachuma", komwe kumakhazikika pamafunso amalonda apawiri kuwononga kuphatikizika kopindulitsa, kwachuma komanso koyenera; kuika patsogolo mabungwe apakhomo a ngongole monga BNDES m'malo mwa mabungwe achigawo; ndikuthandizira njira zoyendetsera ndalama zabizinesi m'malo mochita mapangano am'madera olimbikitsa ndalama.
Kuyambira pa mulu wa zovuta izi, Fiori akufuna kusankha kovuta. Kuti Brazil ndi chigawocho zikhale "zozungulira" za maulamuliro akuluakulu, monga momwe zinalili ku Australia ndi Canada, ndi mapangano a "abwenzi okondedwa", motsatira ndondomeko ya Cardoso, ndi omwe ali olemekezeka m'mayiko onse, okhazikika kwambiri mu udindo wa ogulitsa katundu kunja. Kapena kuti ayambe njira ina, yokhazikika pakudzidalira pa mphamvu ndi zinthu zachilengedwe, kuphatikiza "bizinesi yamtengo wapatali, monga gawo lopangira zokolola zambiri zomwe zimapanga chakudya ndi zinthu" zomwe, popanda kusiya mwayi wogwirizana komanso wopikisana. à-vis the United States, "amavutika kuti awonjezere kuthekera kwawo pazisankho zanzeru" ("Brasil e América do Sul: o desafío da inserção internacional soberana", Brasilia, CEPAL/IPEA, 2011).
Olemekezeka asankha njira yawo ndikumenyera nkhondo. National Federation of Industry (CNI chifukwa cha chidule cha Chipwitikizi) ndi Federation of Industries of the State of Sao Paulo akukana kwambiri Mercosur ndipo saganiziranso za Unasur. Aecio Neves, phungu wa Social Democratic Party omwe akuimira magawowa, akuyankhula momveka bwino kuti: "Tiyenera kukhala olimba mtima kuti tiganizirenso ndi kukonzanso Mercosur. M'lingaliro ili, Pacific Alliance ndi chitsanzo cha kayendedwe ndi mphamvu." (La Nación, Juni 9, 2013).
Kumveka bwino uku kumasiyana ndi malo osawoneka bwino komanso otsutsana a magawo omwe akupita patsogolo. M'zochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi pano, palibe malo osalowerera ndale. "Maiko omwe amadziona ngati osalowerera ndale nthawi zonse amakhala opanda ntchito, kapena maiko omwe amatha kugonjera", Fiori akumaliza. Chifukwa cha ichi akutsindika kuti derali liyenera kudzikhazikitsa ngati "gulu la mayiko ogwirizana omwe angathe kunena kuti ayi, ngati kuli kofunikira, komanso okhoza kudziteteza ngati kuli kosapeŵeka."
(Yotembenuzidwa ndi Jordan Bishop).
- Raúl Zibechi, mtolankhani wa Urugyayan, akulemba ku Brecha ndi La Jornada ndipo ndi wothandizira wa ALAI.
zolemba
1) ALADI: Latin American Association for Integration. UNASUR: Union de South Amnerican Nations. CELAC: Community of Latin America and Caribbean States.
2) "La Inversión Extranjera Directa en América Latina ndi el Caribe 2012", Santiago, 2013.
3) Revista "Tempo do Mundo", Vol. 3, No. 2, Brasilia, December 2012.
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