Nthawi zambiri, atolankhani alephera kusanthula chifukwa chake zisankho zaku Germany ndizoyipa kwambiri. Merkel si wopambana, koma mtsogoleri tsopano ali ndi malo osalimba kwambiri, omwe adzayenera kuchita zambiri ndikulipira tsopano chifukwa cha zolakwa zake. Tiyeni tikambirane mfundo zinayi zofunika kwambiri.
Mfundo yoyamba: kuchepa kwa maphwando achikhalidwe
Tsopano kwa zaka zingapo, zipani zamwambo zomwe zayendetsa mayiko awo kuyambira kumapeto kwa Nkhondo Yadziko Yachiwiri zikukhala zopanda ntchito. Chisankho chomaliza cha ku France chinagwa bwino kwa zipani za Socialist ndi Gaulist, ndikufika kwa munthu wosadziwika, Macron, yemwe tsopano ali ndi 60% ya mipando ya Nyumba Yamalamulo. Zomwezo zidachitika kale pazisankho zapulezidenti ku Austria.
Izi tsopano zayamba ku Germany. Chipani cha Merkel, CDU, chidachita bwino kwambiri kuyambira pomwe chidakhazikitsidwa. Ndipo chipani chake chaching'ono, CSU (CDU yaku Bavaria) chataya mavoti mamiliyoni ambiri. Zomwezo zachitikanso kwa a SPD, omwe adawona chivomerezo chochepa kwambiri kuyambira masiku ano. Zipani ziwirizi, zomwe mu zisankho zapitazi zidapeza 67.2% ya mavoti, tsopano zidangopeza 53.2%. Ndipo, monga kwina kulikonse, mavoti osowa adapita ku maphwando omwe adalandira kusakhutira, ndipo chikhumbo chofuna kulanga kukhazikitsidwa chinali chowonekera. Linke, chipani chotsatira chakumanzere, adapeza 0.6% yowonjezera, ovota akukana kusagwirizana kwa chikhalidwe cha anthu, ndipo samakhulupirira kuti SPD idzakhala yosiyana ndi CDU pa nkhaniyi. Wobiriwira adapeza 0.5% yowonjezera, ndi omwe adakwiyitsidwa ndi lonjezo la Merkel lowonjezera ndalama zodzitetezera ku 2% ya GDP, kuti akondweretse Trump. Koma wopambana kwambiri anali AfD, chipani chamanja chakumanja, chomwe chinali njira yobweretsera kusakhutira kwa anthu ochokera kumayiko ena, ku European Union, ndi mitu ina yadziko komanso anthu ambiri. AfD idapeza mavoti 12.6 %, kukhala chipani chachitatu komanso aphungu 96 anyumba yamalamulo. AfD yapeza mavoti 980.000 kuchokera ku CDU, 470.000 kuchokera ku SPD, mavoti 400.000 kuchokera ku Linkke. Koma chofunika kwambiri nโchakuti, mavoti 1,200.000 ochokera kwa anthu amene sanavote pa zisankho zapitazi. Mu kafukufuku wina, 60% a iwo adanena kuti "adakhumudwa ndi momwe ndale zilili." Nthawi yomweyo, kampani yopanga kafukufuku ya Infratest Dimap, idapeza kuti 84% idawona kuti chuma cha Germany ndi "chabwino", pomwe izi zinali 74% zaka zinayi zapitazo, ndi 19% chabe zaka zisanu ndi zitatu zapitazo. Zisankhozo sizinali bwino pazachuma, koma za anthu othawa kwawo komanso kutayika kwa chidziwitso cha Germany.
Chifukwa chake, kupambana kwa Macron pa Le Pen sikumapeto kwa mafunde a anthu ambiri. Ndipo ochepa amakayikira kuti ngati Macron ataya kukopa kwake (monga momwe zikuchitikira kale), ndipo kumenyera kwake kusintha kwa chikhalidwe kumayimitsidwa ndi mawonetseredwe ambiri, Le Pen angapambane zisankho zotsatirazi. Ndipo zipani zotsutsa dongosolo lonse la ku Ulaya sizinapambane pa zisankho zapitazi, koma sanagonjetse eithe. Tsopano iwo ndi singano yolinganiza m'mayiko onse a Nordic, ndipo akhoza kulengeza, monga Farage , yemwe anayambitsa chipani chotsutsa-Europe UKIP, pamene adataya chisankho chomaliza cha ku Britain: ndizosafunika, uthenga wathu wakhala mbali ya onse. ndale. Ndipo Brexit anali chitsanzo chabwino kwambiri kuti anali wolondola ... maphwando onse m'mayiko a Nordic amayenera kuphatikizira mfundo za anthu ambiri, makamaka pa olowa.
Kaลตirikaลตiri zanyalanyazidwa kuti ndi gulu lapakati, wochita sewero lalikulu pakusinthaku. Kusagwirizana pakati pa anthu ku Ulaya kwakula nthawi zonse, ndipo ambiri ochokera m'magulu apakati ndi osauka kapena amantha. Germany ndi chitsanzo chabwino. Pomwe ulova udatsika ndi Merkel kuchokera 11% mpaka 3.8%, omwe ali pafupi ndi umphawi adachoka pa 11% mpaka 17% ya onse. Merkel adachoka ku chiwongoladzanja cha anthu a madola mabiliyoni a 100, kufika pa 20 biliyoni, koma panthawi imodzimodziyo umphawi unawonjezeka kawiri mpaka 10%, ndipo pali anthu 2 miliyoni omwe ali ndi ntchito ziwiri kuti awathandize kufika kumapeto kwa mwezi. Ndipo opuma pantchito omwe amakhala pansi pa umphawi awonjezeka ndi 30%. A 15.7% athunthu aku Germany tsopano akukhala pansi pa umphawi. Mwa awa, pafupifupi 3 miliyoni ndi ana.
Kodi mantha ndi zokhumudwitsa za anthu apakati okha omwe adakankhira Brexit ndi Trump? Katswiri wazachuma Homi Kharas, wodziwika bwino pagulu lapakati, akuwona kuti 43% ya anthu padziko lonse lapansi (pafupifupi 3.200 miliyoni) tsopano akupanga gulu lapakati padziko lonse lapansi. Imakula chaka chilichonse ndi 160 miliyoni. Chodziwika kwa iwo ndi chakuti makamaka anthu otsika apakati amakhala ndi chiyembekezo chachikulu kuchokera ku boma ndipo amaika kukula kwachuma patsogolo pa china chilichonse. Amathandizidwa ndi intaneti ndi malo ochezera a pa Intaneti, kuti adziwe za ufulu wawo, ndi kuopsa kwake. M'mayiko olemera, maphunziro akuluakulu amathandiza kuzindikira. Mโmaiko amene akutukuka kumene, chitsenderezo pa maboma ndi champhamvu mofananamo. Chitsanzo chabwino kwambiri ndi China. Pakati pa 2002 ndi 2011, pakhala kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa zionetsero ndi kutaya chikhulupiriro mu bungwe la boma, ngakhale kuti nthawi yachuma ikukula. Chowonadi ndi chakuti kuti musunge kukula ndi chilungamo cha anthu palimodzi, mukufunikira zothandizira. Ndipo ili ndi vuto lakumanzere. Uthenga wake wa majini ndi kugawanso ndi kutenga nawo mbali. Kodi tingachite bwanji zimenezi tikakhala mโdziko la zinthu zimene zikuchepa?
Mfundo Yachiwiri. Antisystem imakhala dongosolo lozikika
Bill Emmot, yemwe anali mkulu wa bungwe la Economist, analemba kuti: โTikukhala mโnthawi ya zipolowe. Maphwando osakwana chaka chimodzi adatenga mphamvu ku France komanso ku megalopolis ya Tokyo. Chipani chochepera zaka zisanu ndichotsogolera zisankho ku Italy. White House ikulandila bilionea yemwe sanakumanepo ndi ndale. Ndipo tionjezere kuti mavuto a 2009 asanafike, panalibe chipani chofuna kudana ndi anthu ochokera kumayiko ena chomwe chidayimiridwa ku Nyumba ya Malamulo.
Chifukwa chake tilibe chidziwitso chochepa pa momwe machitidwe odana ndi zipani amachitira akakhala paudindo. Koma ngati tiyang'ana ku United States, Poland ndi Hungary, momveka bwino akuyesera kulamulira mabungwe a boma, osati chifukwa cha mfundo za demokalase zomwe zinawabweretsa ku ulamuliro, koma kampeni yatsopano ya mantha ndi umbombo: kudalirana kwa mayiko, kusamuka. , kuthamangitsidwa kwa ntchito, kusalingana, kusankhana mitundu, ndi "dziko langa choyamba". Ndipo maphwando odana ndi dongosolo, omwe onse atumiza uthenga wabwino ku AfD, amayang'ana kwa Putin ngati chitsanzo cha ndale chotsatira (kupatula Poland pazifukwa zomveka). Koma Urban of Hungary ikulankhula poyera za โdemokrase yopanda ufuluโ monga chifukwa chachikulu chomenyera EU (ndi Poland ya mikhalidwe ya Chikatolika motsutsana ndi Yuropu wakunja).
Ndizomveka kuganiza kuti AfD, Le Pen, ndi kampani ikayamba kulamulira, (ngati machitidwe odana ndi dongosolo sayimitsidwa), tiwona kuchepa kwakukulu kwa demokalaseโฆ komanso chifukwa tili ndi Japan, India , China, Turkey, Philippines, kungotchula ochepa chabe, omwe ndi okonda dziko lawo, xenophobe ndipo amakonda kuwonetsera masomphenya awo, monga momwe adachitira achi Russia pazisankho zomaliza.
Tiyenera kuyang'ana kuchepa kwa achinyamata mu ndale monga chinthu chatsopano chodetsa nkhawa kwambiri. Zofunikira pakugawidwa kwa bajeti zimapitilira mibadwo yakale, yomwe imavota. Ndikofunika kuzindikira kuti achinyamata ambiri savotera zipani zotsutsana ndi dongosolo, koma amapewa. Ngati achinyamata adavota, sitikanakhala ndi Brexit ndi Trump. Mu zisankho zaku Germany, 10% yokha mwa omwe ali pakati pa 18 ndi 24 adavotera AfD: magulu ena onse adachita izi, ndipo tiyenera kupita ku gulu lazaka zakale kwambiri, omwe ali ndi zaka zopitilira 70 kuti awone kuchepa, mpaka 7% yokha ya voti. Koma 69 peresenti ya akuluakulu adavotera CDU ndi SPD, motsutsana ndi 41% ya aang'ono kwambiri. Choncho, chiphunzitso chakuti achinyamata akusamukira kumanja ndi nthano chabe. Amakonda kudziletsaโฆkoma vuto likadalipo. Kudziletsa kwawo kumathandiza kuti dongosolo likhalebe, komanso antisystem kuti apambane. Koma tengerani Italy mwachitsanzo, yoyendetsedwa ndi gulu lakumanzere, PD. Iwo angovomereza kulimbikitsa kusowa kwa ntchito kwa achinyamata (pafupifupi 30%), atapereka madola 30 biliyoni kuti athandize mabanki anayi achigawo. Antisystem M5S, yomwe tsopano ikutsogolera zisankho, yapangitsa kuti nkhondo yolimbana ndi ndalama ikhale yofunika kwambiri. Mukadakhala wachinyamata, wophunzira komanso wopanda ntchito, mungasankhe chiyani?
Mfundo Yachitatu: Zisankho zaku Germany ndi tsoka ku Europe
Kukopa kwa Europe yophatikizidwa kwakhala kukuchepera kwakanthawi. Zinakhala zachilendo kuwonetsa mabungwe aku Europe ngati gulu la olamulira osavomerezeka, osakhudzana ndi zenizeni, akufuna kukambirana za kukula kwa tomato. M'malo mwake, ndi Bungwe la Atumiki, lopangidwa ndi nthumwi za Mayiko, omwe amatenga zisankho: EU ikhoza kuzikwaniritsa. Koma zimakhala zokomera ndale kubwerera ku Brussels ndikukapereka zisankho, makamaka zosakondedwa, monga diktat yomwe idakhazikitsidwa kudziko lanu. Izi, ndithudi, ndi chimodzi mwa zifukwa zambiri za kuchepa kwa Ulaya monga ntchito yandale. Koma ndizothandiza kukumbukira masewerawa, chifukwa akuwonetsa kusayanjanitsika kwa gulu la ndale. Panalibe mgwirizano weniweni kumbuyo kwa polojekiti ya ku Ulaya. Dziko lirilonse linkangoyang'ana zopindula, ndipo tsopano, osati ngakhale izo (monga chitsanzo cha Poland ndi Hungary, olandira ochuluka kwambiri amasonyeza). Ndiye, Europe ikupita kuti?
Pali masomphenya atatu a ku Ulaya. Chimodzi ndi masomphenya a Juncker, mtsogoleri wa EU. Ikufuna kulimbikitsa mabungwe a ku Ulaya, ndi kulimbikitsa zolinga za chikhalidwe cha anthu, mpaka pano atasiya zofunikira zachuma ndi zamalonda. Sikuti Juncker ndi wopita patsogolo: amangozindikira popanda kuchita zimenezo, maphwando otsutsana ndi Ulaya adzakhala ndi moyo wosavuta. Lingaliro lake ndikulimbitsa Europe ngati dziko lapamwamba, pomwe mayiko akuvomereza mphamvu zambiri, kuti agwire bwino ntchito. Ndiye pali masomphenya a Macron, yemwe amapita mbali imodzi, koma kuchokera kudziko lomwe lakhala likuteteza mwansanje ulamuliro wake wadziko. Komabe amazindikira kuti m'dziko lopikisanali, palibe dziko la ku Ulaya lomwe lingapite kutali, ndipo ku Ulaya kolimba ndikofunikira. Ndiye pali Merkel's Europe, yomwe kwenikweni ili ku chitaganya cha mayiko, komwe zisankho zimatengedwa ndi mayiko, (ndi Germany ngati yamphamvu kwambiri), ndi EU ikukwaniritsa izi. Kuyambira pomwe Macron adayamba kulamulira, wakhala akulimbikitsa chitsitsimutso cha French-German entente, zomwe ndizofunikira ku Europe. Macron ndi kum'mwera kwa Ulaya akhala akupempha kuti azigwirizana ndi ndalama za ku Ulaya, kuti apititse patsogolo ofooka kwambiri ndikukula mofanana, kupanga European Monetary Fund kuti athetse mavuto, nduna yaikulu ya zachuma ndi zachuma, chitetezo chofala ku Ulaya ndi angapo. njira zachitukuko zobwezera chikhulupiriro kwa otayika aku Europe ku Europe.
Izi ndi zomwe Germany idavotera nthawi zonse. Ajeremani sakufuna kugawana ndalama zawo ndi otayika. Mumkangano uwu, pali mkangano wamphamvu wachipembedzo ndi wamakhalidwe: chikhalidwe cha Chiprotestanti chotsutsana ndi chikhalidwe cha Katolika cha kukhululuka kosavuta. Greece inali gawo lotsimikizira chiphunzitso cha ordo liberalism, lingaliro la Germany pazachuma, komwe kuyenda kosavuta komanso kusowa kwa mwambo kuyenera kulangidwa. Ili linalinso chenjezo ku mayiko ena, monga Italy, Spain ndi Portugal. Zotsatira za chilango ku Greece, zomwe zinali 4% chabe ya chuma cha ku Ulaya, ndikuti patatha zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri pali kusowa kwa ntchito 20%, kutayika kwa 25% ya chuma cha Greek, kuchepetsa ndalama zapenshoni za pafupifupi 40%, ndi 20% ya anthu omwe ali paumphawi. Tisaiwale kuti chigawo chachikulu cha bail kunja ngongole anapita poyamba mabanki (makamaka German), kulipira ngongole yaikulu anali ndi wosweka Greek boma, osati nzika. Ndipo tsopano ma eyapoti ndi madoko ali pansi pa ulamuliro waku Germany.
Nkhope ya kukakamizidwa uku, yomwe ndi gawo lofunika kwambiri la mphepo yotsutsana ndi Ulaya, inali ndi nkhope ya nduna ya zachuma, Schauble. Koma panalibe kukayikira kuti iye anali pro Europe, ngakhale a ku Ulaya kutengera chitsanzo German. Koma tsopano wasuntha kukhala Purezidenti wa Nyumba Yamalamulo, kusiya malo ake kwa wapampando wa FPD, chipani cha liberal, Christian Lindner, yemwe ndi wotsutsa-European. FDP ikutsutsana ndi yuro, ikufuna Greece kuchoka ku Euro, ikufuna ndondomeko yolimba pa othawa kwawo: mwa kuyankhula kwina, ali kumanja. Merkel, Chancellor wanzeru kwambiri, sangathe kukwaniritsa zomwe Macron ndi Juncker akuyembekezera. Europe idzakhalanso pa standby. Italy mwina imayendetsedwa ndi Prime Minister wachinyamata (kuchokera ku antisystem M5S) wosayesedwa kwathunthu wazaka 31, yemwe adalengeza kuti akufuna kusiya Yuro, ndikuchepetsa mphamvu ya Brussels. Kulimbana ndi Europe sikunayimitsidwe konse, mosiyana ndi chidwi cha media.
Mfundo Yachinayi: Udindo wa Merkel
Palibe kukayika kuti kusamuka kwakukulu kwa Asiriya miliyoni imodzi, kwapereka chida champhamvu kwa Afd, ndi omasuka, kuti awathandize kupeza mphamvu. Koma nthawi idzatsimikizira kuti chinali chisankho chanzeru, cholandilidwa ndi chuma cha Germany. Ziwerengero zimasonyeza kuti Osamukira kudziko lina ndi nzika zachitsanzo, amalipira misonkho, ndipo amabweretsa phindu lalikulu kudziko lomwe limawalandira. Inde, tikuwona nkhani yokha ya zigawenga ndi ogwirira, omwe maphwando a xenophobe amagwiritsa ntchito bwino, chifukwa mu nthawi zovuta kupeza mbuzi ya scapegoat ndi yosavuta komanso yosavuta. Koma Merkel adangokwera ku Germany idiosyncrasy, osachita zowerengera kuti alimbikitse nzika kuti ziwonetse masomphenya. Amadziwa kuti maloto achinsinsi a ku Germany ndi kukhala Swiss: palibe kutenga nawo mbali padziko lapansi (kupatulapo bizinesi), palibe zoyesera, palibe zoopsa. Iye wakhala chitsanzo cha idiosyncrasy - ali wokondwa kutchedwa Mutti, amayi. Kupatula othawa kwawo, adangotenga chiopsezo china, chomwe chinali kusiya nyukiliya, pambuyo pa tsoka la Fukushima. Chifukwa chake, sanachite chilichonse kuti adziwitse nzika za udindo wawo ku Europe. Adawateteza ku nsembe zilizonse chifukwa chokhala a ku Europe, adakana pempho lililonse la EU, IMF ndi Wold Bank kuti awononge ndalama zambiri zomwe Germany idachita ndi malonda apakati pa Europe. Udindo wake unali: tidzasunga ndalama zomwe tapanga ndi ntchito yathu yolimba. Ndipo Schauble chinali chida chake basi. Tsopano, chifukwa cha boma lake lachigwirizano losamvetseka, apempha positi ya European Central Bank kwa hawk waku Germany, Jedemans, waku Bank of Germany: kampani yabwino kwa Christian Lindner. Masiku amdima akubwera ku Ulaya; Merkel ndi fanizo labwino kwambiri la kusiyana pakati pa Germany wa Bonn, woyendetsedwa ndi andale odzipereka komanso odzipereka, ndi Germany waku Berlin, yemwe ndi wodzikonda chabe, wopanda masomphenya. Ndipo atawononga mabiliyoni 100 pachaka, kwa zaka 20, East Germany idakali mmbuyo mopanda chiyembekezo, ndipo ndipamene AfD idatenga mavoti ake ambiri.
Usiku wotsatira zisankho, woyimira SPD, a Martin Shultz, adati akuyang'ana m'maso mwake: Akazi a Merkel, ndiwe woluza kwambiri. Inu ndi amene munayambitsa kupambana kwa AfD. Tiyeni tiyembekezere kuti mofunitsitsa kapena ayi, Mutti adzakhalanso ndi udindo pakutha kwa maloto aku Europe.
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Nkhani yokhumudwitsa kwambiri.