Kulumikizana kwankhondo pakati pa asitikali apamadzi aku Russia ndi China, magulu ankhondo, ndi asitikali apamlengalenga ayamba. Ndi uthenga womveka kwa Washington, womwe walimbitsa ntchito zake posachedwa ku Asia, zomwe zikuwonetsa kuti ngati dziko lomwe likuyang'anizana ndi Pacific, likufuna kuchita mbali yofunika kwambiri ku kontinentiyi, yomwe ikufuna kukhala ndi kufalikira kwa China.
Obama, paulendo wake ku Laos, woyamba ndi Purezidenti waku America komanso womaliza ku Asia ngati Purezidenti, adanena momveka bwino kuti United States ndi otsimikizira kukhazikika kwa Asia. Mmodzi ayenera kuganiziranso kuti kontinenti yayikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi ikudutsa m'mbiri ya dziko (China, Japan, India) ndi populism (Philippines). Kuwongolera kwamagulu ankhondo ndi uthenga womveka bwino: United States siyingasankhe zomwe zidzachitike ku Asia.
Russia idawonedwa kale ndi NATO ngati mdani wokhala nawo, wozunguliridwa ndi malire a Eastern Europe. Kutengeka kwa Crimea, kulowererapo kum'mawa kwa Ukraine, kenako nkhondo ku Syria, kwapatula Kremlin, chinthu chomwe sichinachitikepo kale ndi Europe ndi America.
Msonkhano sabata yatha, pakati pa Obama ndi Putin ku G20, udatha moyipa kwambiri. Pangano losalimba la kutha kwa nkhondo ku Syria lomwe linafika pakati pa nduna zakunja zakunja, silithetsa mkangano wonse pakati pa mayiko awiriwa, omwe akadali okonzeka kumenyana wina ndi mnzake ndi nkhondo yosadziwika, mpaka Siriya yomaliza. Mgwirizano waku Western akufuna kusunga zilango ku Russia.
Lingaliro ndiloti womalizayo, wofooka chifukwa cha kutsika kwa mitengo ya mafuta ndikuwona kuchepa kwakukulu kwa ndalama zake, zidzachititsa kuti Putin avomereze kuvomereza ukulu wa Kumadzulo, motero akukakamizika kuchepetsa zochita zake padziko lonse lapansi.
Lingaliro ili limabweretsa kusakambirana, popeza aliyense akudikirira kuti Putin amvetsetse kuti sangakhale ndi zolinga zapadziko lonse lapansi. Monga Obama adanena, "Russia ndi mphamvu yachigawo." Ndipo dongosolo lachidziwitso ladzaza ndi kusanthula momwe chuma cha Russia chikudutsa muvuto, komanso momwe kuchepa kwa chuma kudzasokoneza ubale pakati pa Putin ndi anthu a ku Russia.
Tsopano, kusanthula pang'ono mozama kumapereka njira yokayikira kwambiri mphamvu ya njira iyi. Poyamba, zilangozo zili ndi cholemetsa chosiyana ku Europe kuposa ku United States. Ikugogomezera kuti GDP yaku Russia yatsika ndi 3.5 peresenti. Koma pambali pa izi, kutsika kwamitengo yamafuta (kutumiza kwakukulu ku Russia) kumatenga gawo lalikulu kwambiri, kuchokera pa $ 100 mbiya mpaka madola 50 apano, zonse zili chete pamtengo wa zilango za Kumadzulo, zomwe zayimitsa kutumiza kunja kwa Russia.
Malinga ndi European Commission, kumapeto kwa 2015, inali $ 100 biliyoni. Koma apa pali kusiyana kwakukulu, komwe kwatsekedwa mosadziwika bwino. Kutumiza kwa US ku Russia kudatsika ndi 3.5%, pomwe azungu adatsika ndi 13% (43% yazaulimi). Kwa mbali yake, katundu waku Europe wochokera ku Russia adatsika ndi 13.5%.
Komanso malinga ndi European Commission, European GDP idatsika ndi 0.3% mu 2014 ndi 0.4% mu 2015, chifukwa chachindunji cha chilangocho. Izi sizikudetsa nkhawa Germany koma mayiko ngati Italy, omwe kukula kwawo kuli pafupi ndi ziro (ndipo gawo lawo laulimi lakhudzidwa ndi kutayika kwa msika waku Russia), osaiwala kuti kukula konse kwa European GDP kuli pafupi ndi 1 peresenti. Koma, yankhani mabwalo a NATO, kusiyana pakati pa kuchepa kwa GDP ya Russia ndi ku Ulaya, kumasonyeza kuti zilango zimagwira ntchito, ndipo ndi nthawi yochepa kuti Putin ayambe kulamulira.
Izi zimabweretsa kusinkhasinkha kwina komwe kulibe m'ma TV. Sitinganyalanyaze kuti Putin amasangalala ndi ulemu waukulu pakati pa anthu aku Russia. Kafukufuku wodziyimira pawokha amamupatsa kutchuka komwe kumayambira 60% mpaka nsonga za 78%, maperesenti osadziwika kwa mtsogoleri aliyense waku Western.
Kutchuka kumeneku kwawonjezeka kuyambira pamene Putin adalanda Crimea, adalowererapo ku Ukraine, akumangirira mpeni kumbali ya NATO, (yomwe amatha kutembenuza momwe akufunira), ndikulowererapo ku Syria. Yankho la mabwalo ovomerezeka ndikuti izi zidachitidwa kuti abise zovuta zapakati pazachuma komanso zachuma.
Komabe, pamakhala mavuto akakhala otero. Anthu aku America ali otsimikiza kuti panthawi ya utsogoleri wa Reagan ku United States anali kukhala m'nyengo yosangalatsa yazachuma, pomwe zenizeni, kuchepa kwachuma kudakwera kuchoka pa 800 biliyoni kufika pa 2,750 thililiyoni.
Tsopano ndizosavuta kutsimikizira anthu aku Russia kuti akumadzulo akuyesera kusokoneza chuma chawo. Komanso, anthu aku Russia ndi anthu, malinga ndi akatswiri a zachikhalidwe cha anthu, amatha kufinya ogula ndalama zambiri kuposa nzika zakumayiko akumadzulo, chifukwa cha mbiri komanso chikhalidwe.
Komabe, kuwunikira kwakukulu kuyenera kupangidwa pa chinthu chofunikira chosokonekera: kukhalapo nthawi imodzi kwa European Community ndi Nato, mabungwe awiri omwe ali ndi zolinga zosiyana, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimapanga zochita za schizophrenic.
Cholinga cha bungwe la European Community ndi kulimbikitsa mgwirizano ndi chitukuko cha mayiko a ku Ulaya, potengera zomwe anthu ambiri amayendera komanso zomwe amakonda.
Cholinga chovomerezeka cha Nato ndikuchitapo kanthu pofuna chitetezo cha mayiko a Kumadzulo, omwe amapangidwa nthawi imodzi ndi United States (atsogoleri amphumphu) komanso ochokera ku Ulaya.
Zotsatira zake, Europe imapatsa Nato chitetezo chake. Malinga ndi akatswiri ambiri, Nato amafanana ndi anthu omwe ali mu Sewero la Pirandello "Makhalidwe asanu ndi limodzi omwe akufunafuna wolemba". Kutha kwa nkhondo yozizira komanso kutha kwa chiwopsezo cha Soviet zikadatanthauza kutha kwa Nato. Koma kuchotsa bungwe nthawi zambiri kumakhala kovuta kuposa kupanga. Chifukwa chake kwa nthawi yayitali, Nato yakhala ikuyang'ana mdani yemwe angavomereze kukhalapo kwake.
Monga momwe mwambi wachi China umanenera kuti: Ukayika nyundo mโmanja mwa mwamuna, adzayangโana paliponse misomali yotuluka. Mochuluka kwambiri pankhaniyi, kuti mkulu wotsiriza wa NATO, General panopa, walengeza kuti Russia ndi chiwopsezo chachikulu kuposa ISIS.
Komabe, palinso sukulu yamalingaliro yomwe imawona kuti akumadzulo ndi olakwa pochita zonse zomwe angathe kuti atsimikizire kuti Putin anali wodekha pamene adayamba kukhala bwenzi la Bush.
Sitiyenera kuiwala kuti mgwirizano wa Gorbachev wovomereza kugwa kwa khoma la Berlin unali zotsatira za kudzipereka kwa NATO kusunga malire ake.
M'malo mwake, mayiko onse a ku Ulaya omwe kale anali Soviet Union alowa mu NATO. Ndipo, woimira mchitidwewu, womwe umatanthauzidwa ngati kuzungulira kwa Moscow (pamene Madrid amatanthauzira ngati chotengera) ndikuvomerezedwa kwaposachedwa kwa Montenegro ku Nato, yemwe adavomereza kuti ali ndi gulu lankhondo lopangidwa ndi amuna 3,000.
Tsopano, ndi kusanthula mosamala, ndi bwino kunena kuti Nato amanyamula kwambiri ndale mayiko kuposa Europe. Ngakhale chifukwa, kunena zoona, Europe yachepetsa ndalama zowonongera zankhondo, popeza ikupereka ndalama zolipirira chitetezo chake ku United States. Palibe mwangozi kuti Trump, akufotokoza mfundo yake panthawi yachisankho chake, adalonjeza kuti ngati atakhala Purezidenti, Azungu ayenera kulipira ngongole zawo. Izi zitha kuchititsa kuchepa kwakukulu kwa mphamvu za Nato ku Europe.
Kuwongolera kophatikizana ku South China Sea ndi gawo lofunikira kwambiri komanso lofulumira pakati pa Russia ndi China. Ngakhale kuchepa kwachuma cha China, pomwe Beijing idasaina ngongole za madola 25 biliyoni kumakampani aku Russia: Russia, kumbali yake, idadzipereka ku mgwirizano wopereka gasi wa 38 biliyoni wamafuta pachaka, kwa zaka 30, ndi ndalama zokwana madola 400 biliyoni.
China Development Bank yapereka ngongole ku Sberbank ya $ 966 miliyoni. Beijing yakhazikitsa thumba la ndalama zoyendetsera ulimi ku Russia la ndalama zokwana madola 2 biliyoni ndipo lapereka ngongole yokwana madola 19.7 biliyoni pa njanji yolumikiza Moscow ndi mzinda wa Kazan. Mayiko awiriwa adagwirizananso kuti awonjezere malonda awo apakati pa 200 biliyoni pofika chaka cha 2020. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, mgwirizano wamalonda womwe sunachitikepo ukukula pakati pa mayiko awiriwa.
Chifukwa chake, funso lomwe Europe iyenera kufunsa, kuvula chipewa chake cha Nato ndikuvala chipewa cha European Union, ndiloti ikuyenera kukankhira Russia m'manja mwa China. Mwina ndi nthawi kutsegula kukambirana mwatsatanetsatane ndi Russia, m'malo kukambirana payokha sitepe iliyonse ya milandu, Siria mosiyana Ukraine, ku Crimea, ku nkhani ya Georgia, ku Eastern Europe ndi zina zotero.
Kuchokera ku kafukufukuyu, pabuka funso lofunika kwambiri. Kodi ndi njira yoyang'ana kutsogolo kwa Europe, ngati zilangozo zinali ndi zotsatirapo, kukhala ndi dziko lankhondo lalikulu komanso lofunika kwambiri pazachuma monga Russia, pafupi ndi malire, pamaondo ake komanso ndi anthu omwe amanyazitsidwa ndikukhumudwa, otsimikiza (zikomo kwa umboni) kuti Europe ikulepheretsa Russia kukhala ndi malo olungama padziko lapansi? Kodi iyi ndi njira yabwino kwambiri yopezera chitetezo ku Europe? Mwina kukambirana ndi Russia kukanakhala bwino, kuti tipeze ndondomeko ya chitetezo, komanso malonda ndi malonda omwe ali ndi zosowa zazikulu, monga malinga ndi akatswiri azachuma padziko lonse lapansi tikupita ku nthawi yayitali.
Koma funso ngati European schizophrenia ya zipewa ziwiri, za Nato ndi EU, (masiku ano pavuto), zimathandiza kukambirana uku. Makamaka chifukwa Putin akupanga dongosolo lake la mgwirizano wa ku Ulaya: Mgwirizano wokhala ndi ufulu wa anthu ambiri, ndi Salvini ndi Le Pen, kukwaniritsa kuyamikira kwa Trump, kukhala chitsanzo cha demokalase yopanda malire, monga momwe Pulezidenti wa ku Hungary Orban amanenera. Izi zimachepetsa chitetezo cha ku Ulaya. Koma ali kuti mtsogoleri wokhoza kukhala ndi masomphenya atsopano, enieni komanso a nthawi yaitali a chitetezo ku Ulaya? Kodi tikutsimikiza kuti izi ndizotheka popanda Russia?
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