Le massicce scoperte di gas naturale al largo della costa orientale di Israele e Palestina sono destinate a rendere Tel Aviv un hub energetico regionale. Resta ancora da vedere se Israele sarà in grado di tradurre gli indicatori positivi delle riserve di gas, in gran parte non sfruttate, in una reale ricchezza economica e strategica.
Ciò che è certo, tuttavia, è che il Medio Oriente è già alle prese con una grande guerra geostrategica, che ha il potenziale per diventare un vero e proprio confronto militare.
Non sorprende che Israele sia al centro di questo crescente conflitto.
“Last week, we started to stream gas to Egypt. We turned Israel into an energy superpower,” Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, vantato during a cabinet meeting on January 19.
Netanyahu’s self-congratulating remarks came on the heels of some exciting financial news for the embattled Prime Minister, as both Jordan and Egypt are now Tel Aviv’s clients, receiving billions of cubic meters of Israeli gas.
For Netanyahu, pumping Israeli gas to two neighboring Arab countries constitutes more than just economic and political advantages – it is a huge personal boost. The Israeli leader is trying to convince the public to vote for him in yet another elezioni generali in March, while pleading to Israel’s political elite to give him immunity so that he can stay out of prison for various corruption charges.
For years, Israel has been exploiting the discovery of massive deposits of natural gas from the Leviathan and Tamar fields – located nearly 125 km and 80 km west of Haifa respectively – to reconstruct regional alliances and to redefine its geopolitical centrality to Europe.
La strategia israeliana, tuttavia, ha già creato potenziali conflitti in una regione già instabile, espandendo il gioco di potere per includere Cipro, Grecia, Francia, Italia e Libia, nonché Egitto, Turchia, Libano e Russia.
On January 2, Netanyahu was in Athens signing a gas pipeline deal, alongside Greek Prime Minister, Kyriako Mitotakis, and Cyprus President, Nicos Anastasiades.
The EastMed pipeline è proiettato to travel from Israel to Cyprus, to Greece and, ultimately, to Italy, thus transporting eastern Mediterranean gas directly to the heart of Europe.
A few years ago, this scenario seemed unthinkable, as Israel has, in fact, importati much of its natural gas from neighboring Egypt.
Il giacimento israeliano di Tamar ha parzialmente corretto la dipendenza di Israele dal gas importato quando ha iniziato la produzione nel 2003. Poco dopo, Israele ha trovato nuovamente gas, questa volta con un potenziale molto maggiore, nel massiccio giacimento di Leviathan. Il 31 dicembre 2019, Leviatano ha iniziato a pompare gas per la prima volta.
Il Leviatano si trova nel bacino levantino del Mar Mediterraneo, una regione ricca di idrocarburi.
“Leviathan is estimated to hold over 21 trillion cubic feet of natural gas—enough to fill Israeli power-generation needs for the next 40 years, while still leaving an ample supply for export,” wrote Frank Musmar in the BESA Center for Strategic Studies.
Egypt’s share of Israeli gas – 85 billion cubic meters (bcm), with an estimated cost of $19.5 billion – is acquired through the private Egiziano entity Dolphinus Holdings. The Jordanian deal was signed between the country’s national electricity company NEPCO, and American firm, Noble Energy, which owns a 45% stake in the Israeli project.
I giordani protestano in massa contro l’accordo sul gas di Israele, poiché vedono la cooperazione economica tra il loro paese e Israele come un atto di normalizzazione, soprattutto perché Tel Aviv continua a occupare e opprimere i palestinesi.
The echoes of the popular protests have reached the Jordanian parliament which, on January 19, unanimously voted in favor of a law to ban gas imports from Israel. Israel is diversifying beyond exerting regional economic dominance to becoming a big player on the international geopolitical stage as well. The EastMed pipeline project, estimated at €6bn, is expected to cover 10% of Europe’s overall need for natural gas. This is where things get even more interesting.
La Turchia ritiene che l’accordo, che coinvolge i suoi stessi rivali regionali, Cipro e Grecia, sia progettato specificamente per emarginarla economicamente escludendola dal boom degli idrocarburi del Mediterraneo.
Ankara is already a massive energy hub, being the host of Turkstream, quale feed Europe, with approximately 40% of its needs of natural gas coming from Russia. This fact has provided both Moscow and Ankara not only with more than economic advantages but geostrategic leverage as well. If the EastMed pipeline becomes a reality, Turkey and Russia will stand to lose the most.
In a series of successive, and surprising moves, Turkey retaliated by signing a maritime border deal with Libya’s internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA), and by committing to send military support to help Tripoli in its fight against forces loyal to General Khalifa Haftar.
“Turkey will not permit any activity that is against its own interests in the region,” Fuat Oktay, Turkey’s Vice-President, told Anadolu News Agency, adding that “any plan that disregards Turkey has absolutely no chance of success.”
Although European countries were quick to condemn Ankara, the latter has succeeded in changing the rules of the game by staking a claim to vast areas that are ha anche affermato by Greece and Cyprus as part of their so-called exclusive economic zones (EEZ).
Not only will Turkey be perforazione in Libya’s territorial waters for natural gas, but in disputed water near Cyprus as well. Ankara is accusing Cyprus of violating “the equal claim to discoveries”, an arrangement that followed the military conflict between both countries in 1974.
Se il problema non verrà risolto, il progetto del gasdotto EastMed potrebbe potenzialmente trasformarsi in un sogno irrealizzabile. Quello che sembrava un accordo redditizio, con un immenso significato geopolitico dal punto di vista israeliano, ora sembra essere un’altra estensione del più ampio conflitto mediorientale.
While the EU is eager to loosen Russia’s strategic control over the natural gas market, the EastMed pipeline increasingly appears unfeasible from every possible angle.
However, considering the massive deposits of natural gas that are ready to fuel struggling European markets, it is almost certain that the Mediterranean natural gas will eventually become a major source of political disputes, if not a war.
Ramzy Baroud è un giornalista e redattore di The Palestine Chronicle. È autore di cinque libri. Il suo ultimo è “Queste catene saranno spezzate: Storie palestinesi di lotta e sfida nelle carceri israeliane” (Clarity Press, Atlanta). Il dottor Baroud è un ricercatore senior non residente presso il Centro per l'Islam e gli affari globali (CIGA), Università Zaim di Istanbul (IZU). Il suo sito web è www.ramzybaroud.net
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