Ua ʻae aku nei ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa mai ka hoʻouka ʻana o Kepakemapa 11, 2001, ua kōkua ʻo ia iā Pakistan e hoʻopaʻa i kāna mau mea kaua nuklea a me nā mea hana i hana ʻia. Ua hoʻokipa ʻo Pakistan i kēia kōkua. Ua ʻōlelo kekahi pūkaua Pakistani mua i komo i loko o ka hale kaua nuklea "makemake mākou e aʻo mai nā hana maikaʻi loa o ke Komohana."
Akā ʻo ka US track record no ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i kāna mau mea kaua nuklea, nā mea nuklea a me nā ʻike mea kaua, ʻaʻole ia he mea paipai. Inā ʻaʻole hiki i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ke hoʻopaʻa i kāna ʻoihana nuklea ponoʻī, no ke aha e manaʻo ai ʻo Pakistan e hana maikaʻi ia?
Ma ka lā 11 o Nowemapa, ua hōʻike ʻo The Washington Post ua hoʻouna ʻo ʻAmelika i "mau ʻumi miliona mau kālā o nā lako e like me nā mea ʻike intrusion a me nā ʻōnaehana ID no ka mālama ʻana i nā mea kaua nuklea o Pakistan." I hoʻokahi pule ma hope mai, ua hōʻike ʻo The New York Times, e noho ana ma ka moʻolelo no ʻekolu mau makahiki, ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka papahana, "I loko o nā makahiki ʻeono i hala iho nei, ua hoʻohana ka hoʻokele Bush ma kahi o $100 miliona ma kahi papahana hoʻokaʻawale loa. e kōkua iā Gen. Pervez Musharraf, ka pelekikena o Pakistan, e hoʻopaʻa i nā mea kaua nuklea o kona ʻāina. ʻO ke kōkua mai nā "helikopter a hiki i nā aniani ʻike pō i nā mea ʻike nuklea."
Ua ʻōlelo ka pūʻali koa US i ka hilinaʻi e pili ana i ka palekana o nā mea kaua nuklea o Pakistan. Ua ʻōlelo kekahi ʻōlelo a ka Pentagon, "I kēia manawa, ʻaʻohe o mākou hopohopo. Manaʻo mākou aia lākou ma lalo o ka mana kūpono. " Ua haʻi aku ka luna hoʻomalu o ka US Joint Chiefs of Staff "ʻAʻole au i ʻike i kahi hōʻailona i kēia manawa ua pilikia ka palekana o kēlā mau mea kaua."
Kolo Laka
ʻO kahi hopohopo e pili ana i ka palekana o nā mea kaua nuklea ma Pakistan, ʻo ia ka poʻe Islamist i ka pūʻali koa e hopu i ka mana o nā mea kaua a hoʻāʻo e hoʻohana iā lākou. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Pakistan ua hahai ʻo ia i ka hiʻohiʻona US a hoʻokomo i nā hoʻololi paʻa paʻa coded, i kapa ʻia ʻo Permissive Action Links, ma kāna mau mea kaua.
Mai ka 1960s ka hapa nui o nā mea kaua nuklea US i manaʻo ʻia ua pale ʻia mai ka hoʻohana ʻole ʻia e nā hoʻololi paʻa paʻa coded hiki ke hoʻāla ʻia e kekahi mea i ʻike i ke ʻano kūpono o nā huaʻōlelo. Ua hoʻokomo ʻia kēia mau hoʻololi i ka makahiki 1962 e Robert McNamara i ka wā i noho Kakauolelo ʻo ia no ka mālama ʻana i ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā mea kaua nuklea US.
Wahi a Bruce Blair, he luna hoʻokele hoʻokele missile ma mua, ʻo Strategic Air Command, nona ke kuleana no nā missiles a me nā pōkā nuklea, hoʻokomo i nā hoʻololi akā hoʻonohonoho i nā hui ʻana o nā laka āpau i kahi kaula o nā zeros. Ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia nā code no ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā missiles nuklea US ma OOOOOOOO a hiki i ka hopena o 1970s. ʻO ke kumu? ʻAʻole makemake ʻo Strategic Air Command e loaʻa nā pilikia a i ʻole ka lohi i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i nā missiles nuklea ma muli o ka pono e hoʻokomo i kahi hoʻonohonoho paʻakikī o nā helu.
ʻAʻole paha i ʻike ʻo Robert McNamara ʻo nā laka āna i kauoha ai e kau ʻia ma luna o nā mea kaua nuklea he mea waiwai ʻole, a ʻo ka pūʻali koa me ka mana pololei o nā mea kaua e pale ana i nā ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo no ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i nā missiles nuklea. Ua ʻike wale ʻo McNamara i kēia mai Bruce Blair i Ianuali 2004. Ua huhū ʻo McNamara. Akā, e like me kā Blair i ʻike ai, ʻo ia wale nō "kekahi o nā mea lōʻihi e kuhikuhi ana i ka naʻaupō o nā pelekikena a me nā mea kākau ʻōlelo pale a me nā luna hoʻomalu nuklea e pili ana i ke kūlana maoli o nā mea nuklea."
Na Nuke Ala
ʻO nā pilikia me ka mālama ʻana i nā mea kaua nuklea ʻaʻole ia he mea pili i ka mōʻaukala Cold War. I ʻAukake i kēia makahiki, ua hoʻouka ʻia ʻeono mau pahi kaua nuklea US ma luna o kahi pahu pahu ma Minot Air Force Base ma North Dakota a lele i ka ʻāina a hiki i Barksdale Air Force Base ma Louisiana. Ua hoʻokomo pono ʻia nā pahi kaua holo moku i ka pahu pahu no 24 mau hola ma mua o ka lele ʻana a no nā hola ma hope o ka pae ʻana me ka ʻike ʻole o kekahi e lawe ana i nā poʻo kaua nuklea. ʻO ia "he kaula i ʻike ʻole ʻia o nā hemahema o ke kaʻina hana," e like me ka ʻōlelo a General Richard Newton, ke kōkua hope o nā limahana no nā hana no ka US Air Force.
E like me ka mea i hōʻike ʻia e ka mea loiloi nuklea Hans Kristensen, ua hōʻike ʻia ka hanana i "ka haki ʻana o ke kauoha nuklea a me ka mana no ka mālama ʻana i nā mea kaua nuklea." ʻO ka maʻalahi, ʻaʻole ʻike ka poʻe o ka ʻāina, a ʻaʻole hoʻi i hopohopo e nānā, ke hoʻouka nei lākou i nā mea kaua nuklea ma luna o ka mokulele; ʻAʻole i ʻike a hopohopo paha ka mea hoʻokele a me nā ʻauwaʻa o ka pahu pahu i ka nānā ʻana i kā lākou lawe ʻana i nā mea kaua nuklea; ʻAʻole i ʻike nā luna hoʻokele o kēlā me kēia kahua i ka haʻalele ʻana a i ʻole ka hōʻea ʻana mai o nā mea kaua nuklea; a, ʻaʻole ʻike nā luna aupuni no nā mea kaua nuklea i hea kēia mau mea kaua nuklea a i ʻole e neʻe ʻia ana lākou ma ka ʻāina. Ua nalowale nā mea kaua no nā hola he 36.
ʻO nā ʻīpuka, nā kiaʻi, a me nā pū
ʻO kahi hopohopo koʻikoʻi e pili ana i ka palekana nuklea ma Pakistan ʻo ia ka pilikia o nā pūʻali koa Islamist radical e hana ana i kahi noi no kāna mau mea kaua nuklea a i ʻole kāna waihona o nā mea e hana ai i nā mea kaua nuklea. Ke ulu nei ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana ma nā wahi e pili ana iā Afghanistan e laha nei ma waena o ka ʻāina ʻo North-West Frontier Province o Pakistan a i kona mau kūlanakauhale nui.
ʻO ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o ka hoʻoweliweli e hopohopo ai, ua nui nā pilikia e hoʻāʻo nei e hōʻoia i ka hiki ʻole i nā mea hoʻoweliweli ke kau i ko lākou mau lima i nā mea e hana ai i nā mea kaua nuklea. Ke hoʻohana nei ka US Department of Energy i $ 1.3 biliona i kēlā me kēia makahiki no ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i kāna mau keʻena i loaʻa ka nui o nā mea kaua nuklea i hoʻohana ʻia ma o ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā pā, nā kiaʻi, nā kāmela, nā mea ʻike intrusion, a pēlā aku. Akā ʻaʻole koi ʻia ka nui o kēia mau mea hana a hiki ke pale aku i kahi hui 19-ikaika o ka poʻe hoʻouka kaua e like me ka mea i komo i loko o ka 9/11 hijacking mokulele.
ʻO ka hiki ʻole o ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i nā mea kaua ma nā keʻena US ua hōʻike ʻia e nā hoʻomaʻamaʻa i lawe ʻia e nā mea hoʻouka kaua i nā mea i lawa e hana ai i kahi mea kaua. Hōʻike nā hōʻike e hāʻule ka palekana ma nā pūnaewele ma mua o 50% o ka manawa. ʻO ka Project on Government Oversight, kahi hui ʻīlio kiaʻi kūʻokoʻa, ua hōʻike ʻia i ka wā o ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana ma Los Alamos National Laboratory ma New Mexico, ua hiki i kahi hui US Special Forces "hiki ke ʻaihue i ka uranium no nā mea kaua he nui. ” Ma kahi ho'āʻo palekana ma hope o ka pūnaewele hoʻokahi, "ua loaʻa i ka poʻe hoʻoweliweli hoʻohenehene ka mana o nā mea nuklea koʻikoʻi, inā e hoʻopau ʻia, e hoʻoweliweli i nā wahi nui o New Mexico, Colorado a me nā wahi ma lalo o ka makani."
ʻIke Nukelea
ʻO kahi hopohopo nui e pili ana iā Pakistan ʻo ia ka hiki i nā ʻepekema a me nā ʻenekinia i loko o kāna papahana nuklea ke kaʻana like i ka ʻike mea kaua me nā ʻāina ʻē aʻe a i ʻole nā hui Islamist. Ua kamaʻāina loa ka moʻolelo o AQ Khan, e like me ka moʻolelo o kekahi mau kānaka ʻepekema nuklea kahiko o Pakistan i ʻike ʻia ua hui pū me ke alakaʻi Al-Qaeda ma Afghanistan.
Ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, aia kahi moʻolelo lōʻihi a pilikia o nā ʻike mea kaua nuklea e nalowale ana mai nā hale hana nuklea mea kaua, a pau i nā wahi i manaʻo ʻole ʻia. ʻO Klaus Fuchs ka mea kiu atomika mua a kaulana loa, nāna i hāʻawi aku i nā mea huna o ka papahana kaua nuklea US i ka Soviet Union i ka wā o ke Kaua Honua II. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Fuchs ua hana ʻo ia no nā kumu ideological.
I kēia mau lā, ua hōʻuluʻulu ka Project on Government Oversight i kahi papa inoa o nā hōʻike e pili ana i ka nalowale o nā ʻike i hoʻopaʻa ʻia mai ka US nuclear complex. Ua loaʻa iā lākou he 17 mau hanana i ka makahiki 2004 wale nō kahi i hoʻouna ʻia ai ka ʻike i hoʻopaʻa ʻia mai Los Alamos me ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā pūnaewele unclassified. Ua alakaʻi kēia i ka 'Oihana o Energy, ka mea nāna e hoʻokele i ka papahana kaua nuklea US, e pani i nā hana āpau e pili ana i nā pahu paʻakikī hiki ke hoʻoneʻe, laptops, CD a me DVD, flash drive a me nā mea like, ma waena o ka paʻakikī holoʻokoʻa.
I kekahi hihia koʻikoʻi, ua nalowale nā diski lolouila i loaʻa nā ʻike mea kaua nuklea a ua ʻike pohihihi ʻia i kekahi mau pule ma hope o kahi mīkini kope. I kekahi hihia, ua ʻike ʻia ka ʻike pili e pili ana i nā hoʻolālā nuklea i ka wā o ka hoʻouka ʻana i kahi hale lāʻau. I Ianuali 2007, aia kahi hanana i hoʻouna ʻia ai kahi leka uila e pili ana i nā mea kaua nuklea i hoʻopaʻa ʻole ʻia e kahi ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo nuklea Pentagon kiʻekiʻe a laila hoʻouna ʻia e nā poʻe ʻē aʻe. Ua wehewehe ʻia ʻo ia ʻo "ka hōʻeha koʻikoʻi loa o ka palekana aupuni US."
Kanaka Nukelea
Hōʻike ka mōʻaukala ʻo ka pilikia paʻa loa no ka palekana o nā mea kaua nuklea, nā mea a me nā ʻike, ʻo ia ka poʻe e hana a mālama i ka paʻakikī nuklea. Loaʻa i ka United States kahi papahana hilinaʻi o nā mea kaua nuklea e nānā i nā poʻe i ʻae ʻia e hana me nā mea kaua nuklea. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Pakistan ua ʻae ʻo ia i kahi papahana like.
Ua ʻike ʻia kahi noiʻi kūʻokoʻa o ka papahana hilinaʻi nuklea US ma waena o 1975 a me 1990, ua hōʻole ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma waena o 3% a me 5% o nā pūʻali koa i hoʻomaʻemaʻe mua ʻia no ka hana ʻana me nā mea kaua nuklea. Ua hoʻoneʻe ʻia kēia poʻe ma muli o ka pilikia o ka lāʻau a i ʻole ka waiʻona, ka hoʻopaʻi ʻia no ka hewa koʻikoʻi, ka mālama ʻole ʻana, ka hilinaʻi ʻole a i ʻole ka hana ʻino, ka manaʻo maikaʻi ʻole, a me nā ʻano e hōʻike ana i nā pilikia me ke kānāwai a me ka mana.
Ke hoʻomau nei nā pilikia e like me kēia. I ʻOkakopa 2006, ua hopu ʻia kekahi limahana hana lab Los Alamos me ka "ʻae palekana kiʻekiʻe loa" i hopu ʻia ma kahi pahu lāʻau cocaine. I hoʻokahi makahiki ma hope mai, ua hoʻoneʻe ʻia ka luna o kahi moku nuklea US mai kāna mau hana ma hope o ka ʻike ʻia ʻana ʻaʻole i hana ka poʻe o ka moku i nā māka palekana i kēlā me kēia lā ma kāna reactor nuklea no hoʻokahi mahina a laila hoʻopunipuni i nā moʻolelo o kēlā me kēia lā e uhi i ka hala.
Palekana Hoʻopunipuni
Ma hope o 60 mau makahiki o ka noho ʻana me ka pōkā, ʻaʻole i hoʻonohonoho ʻo ʻAmelika i kāna hale nuklea ponoʻī. Ke hoʻomau nei ʻo ia i nā pilikia koʻikoʻi me ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i kāna mau mea kaua nuklea, nā mea nuklea a me nā ʻike e pili ana i nā mea kaua. ʻAʻole hōʻike i kahi hōʻailona o ke aʻo ʻana mai kāna mau hewa ponoʻī, hiki i ka United States ke hoʻopau wale i ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka manaʻo hoʻopunipuni o ka palekana a me ka hilinaʻi e pili ana i ka palekana o nā mea kaua nuklea ma Pakistan.
ʻO ke ala ʻoiaʻiʻo e hoʻopaʻa ai i nā mea kaua nuklea a me nā mea waiwai ʻaʻole i loaʻa iā lākou. ʻO ke ala wale nō e hōʻoiaʻiʻo ai ʻaʻole e hāʻawi nā ʻepekema mea kaua nuklea i ka ʻike, ʻo ia ka pāpā ʻana i nā ʻepekema mai ka hana ʻana i ia mau mea kaua. ʻO kekahi mea pōkole o ia mea ke lawe nei i ka pilikia a me ka makemake e uku i ke kumukūʻai no ka noho ʻana i kahi honua nuklea.
ʻO Zia Mian, he kulekele haole e nānā ana (www.fpif.org) columnist, alakaʻi i ka Project on Peace and Security in South Asia ma ka Program on Science and Global Security, ma ke Kula ʻo Woodrow Wilson o ke Kulanui ʻo Princeton no ka Public and International Affairs.
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