Esikhathini esingaphansi kwezinyanga ezinhlanu iPakistan ifake uhulumeni wayo wokuqala wentando yeningi okhethwe ngokukhululekile kulandela iminyaka eyisishiyagalombili yokubusa kwamasosha, kubukeka sengathi ibheke enkingeni enkulu. Kubikwa ukuthi kuqubuka ukungqubuzana okungenzeka kube kukhulu phakathi kukaMengameli uPervez Musharraf kanye nenhlangano ebusayo kazwelonke eholwa yiPakistan People's Party (PPP), ebheke ekuceleni uMengameli ukuthi ehle esikhundleni noma abhekane necala.
Emhlanganweni omelene ne-US eKarachi ngoJulayi, izishoshovu ze-Islami Jamait Talba, uphiko lwabafundi lwe-Jamaat-i-Islami, zakugxeka ukuqhuma kwamabhomu ezindaweni zezizwe zasePakistan okwenziwa amasosha omfelandawonye aholwa yi-US asuka e-Afghanistan.
NGESIKHATHI esingaphansi kwezinyanga ezinhlanu iPakistan ifake uhulumeni wayo wokuqala wentando yeningi owakhethwa ngokukhululekile ngemva kweminyaka eyisishiyagalombili yokubusa kwezempi, kubukeka sengathi iphinde yabhekana nenkinga enkulu. Kubikwa ukuthi kuqubuka ukungqubuzana okungenzeka kube kukhulu phakathi kukaMengameli uPervez Musharraf kanye nenhlangano ebusayo kazwelonke eholwa yiPakistan People's Party (PPP), ebheke ekuceleni uMengameli ukuthi ehle esikhundleni noma abhekane necala.
Ngokwemibiko yabezindaba yasePakistan, isinqumo sokubeka phambili udaba lokubekelwa icala mayelana nokubuyiselwa kwamajaji axoshiwe siphume emhlanganweni obalulekile wangomhla zi-5 ku-Agasti phakathi kobambisene nosihlalo we-PPP u-Asif Ali Zardari kanye nosihlalo we-Pakistan Muslim League (N) uNawaz Sharif. Yize kungekho ukuqinisekiswa okusemthethweni kwalokhu yinoma yiliphi iqembu, lokhu kubonakala kuzwakala.
Kunoma ikuphi, isinqumo esibikiwe manje sekudingidwa ngaso namanye amaqembu ahlanganisa umfelandawonye. Bangase bakuvume noma bangavumi. Kodwa akubalulwanga ukuthi uMusharraf uzogadla kungazelelwe futhi axoshe uhulumeni - ngaphambi kokuthi isiphakamiso sokuqulwa kwecala sihanjiswe ePhalamende Likazwelonke. Impela, isizathu sokumbeka icala kubukeka kuwukunovalo lokuthi ubelokhu exoxisana namaqembu epolitiki ehlukene, okuhlanganisa neqembu elithembekile noma iKingโs Party, iPML (Qaed-i-Azam), ngenhloso yokuhlakaza uhulumeni kazwelonke nowezifundazwe. kanye namaBandla asebenzisa amandla akhe ngaphansi kweSigaba 58 (2)b soMthethosisekelo.
Ukungqubuzana kungase kugwenywe ekugcineni. Umfelandawonye obusayo ungase ulwe namahloni okuthweswa icala - umsebenzi onzima ukuwenza ngaphansi kwezimo ezivumayo - futhi ukhethe isinyathelo esithambile njengokucela uMusharraf ukuthi akhulume nePhalamende Likazwelonke futhi acele ivoti lokuzethemba, ngokuhambisana nesiphakamiso sakhe sangaphambilini sokuthi yenza njalo.
Kungenzeka futhi ukuthi uMusharraf ngokwakhe uzothatha isinqumo sokuphonsa ithawula ngokwazi ukuthi angeke akwazi ukuthola ukwesekwa yi-United States noma i-Pakistan Army ukuze athole inkambo yokulwa. Phela akasekho esimeni esibucayi sokwenza inqubomgomo yansuku zonke, futhi i-US ayimdingi njengomfelandawonye obaluleke kakhulu mayelana nokushushiswa kweMpi Yezwe Lonke Yobuphekula e-Afghanistan nasezindaweni zasemngceleni IPakistan ikhathazekile. Ngaphandle kwalokho, iWashington izokuthola kunzima kakhulu futhi kungathandeki ukubhekana nenkinga entsha enkulu ePakistan phakathi nonyaka wokhetho.
UMusharraf, naye, kungenzeka angakujabuleli lokho, uma kwenzeka echitha uhulumeni okhona manje, wokubamba olunye ukhetho ezinyangeni ezintathu, lapho i-PML kaNawaz Sharif ingase iqhamuke njengeqembu elikhulu kunawo wonke.
Noma ngabe kwenzekani, imigomo yombango wezepolitiki oqhubekayo ePakistan ibonakala ishintsha. U-Zardari, omelene ngokuqinile nokubuyiselwa kwangaphambi kwesikhathi kwamajaji axoshiwe eNkantolo Ephakeme kanye Nezinkantolo Eziphakeme, kanye nokususwa kuka-Musharraf, kungenzeka azithole esebuthakathaka futhi ezivikela. Ukuthi, futhi ngayiphi indlela, uSharif ucindezela inzuzo yakhe kusazobonakala.
UZardari ulahlekelwe kakhulu yijaji elibuyiselwe, elingavula ithuba lokubhekisisa i-National Reconciliation Ordinance kaMusharraf, lapho uZardari noBenazir Bhutto bavunyelwa ukuthi babuyele ePakistan kwavalwa amacala amaningi ababebhekene nawo. UMusharraf, naye, angaba senkingeni enkulu uma iProvisional Constitutional Order, abeka ngaphansi kwayo umthetho wezimo eziphuthumayo ngoNovemba odlule futhi yaxosha amajaji angaba ngu-40, ingabanjwa.
Nokho, ezinye izinto zicacile. Kungaba ubuwula ukuthi i-India ize ibonakale icheme noMusharraf. Okwesibili, isimo sasePakistan kungenzeka sibe sibi kakhulu. Kunengozi yokuthi izinzuzo ezitholakala enkambweni yakamuva ebheke embusweni wentando yeningi zizoguguleka kabi, zize zilahleke. Njengoba le kholomu (Frontline, Julayi 4) yasho, lezi zindlela ziphikisana nezikhundla kanye nokugunyazwa, zibheka kabi ama-Three A (Army, Allah kanye neMelika), futhi zivuna ukulinganisela nokuziphendulela, ngaphandle kokuhlukaniswa kwama-mullah, amaqembu abo achithwa Ukhetho lukaFebhuwari. Amathrendi aphinde ahlanganise nosekelo olubanzi lwenqubo yokuthula ne-India.Sekuvele kukhona ukuhlehla okubalulekile okubonakalayo ePakistan. Ibhizinisi lokuphatha lisefrijini elijulile. Umnotho wasePakistan usesimweni esibi futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhamba ngamaphesenti angama-20 ngonyaka, amanani okudla enyuka ngamaphesenti angaphezu kwangama-30. Ukuphelelwa ithemba nobumnyama kugcwele yonke indawo. Ngokwenhlolovo yemibono eyenziwe yi-International Republican Institute ezinze e-US, cishe amaphesenti angama-86 abantu basePakistan bakholelwa ukuthi izwe labo libheke endaweni engafanele.
Khonamanjalo, ayanda amandla ontamolukhuni abakholelwa kujehad enobudlova. Isikhumbuzo seminyaka yokuqala ye-Lal Masjid yahlaselwa isiphepho kwaba nokuqhuma kwemibhikisho yamasosha. Izinkulungwane zabesifazane zathembisa ukukhulisa izingane zabo ukuze zifele ukholo โempini engcweleโ. Amasosha ashisa izikole zamantombazane ezindaweni zeTribal Agency, lapho umthetho wombuso ungaqhubeki khona. Noma ubani angaphakamisa i-lashkar noma ibutho elizimele futhi adale isiphithiphithi.
INGCINDEZI EBUSO
Okuwukuphela kwenzuzo kukho konke lokhu ibutho lezempi, okufanele lijabulele ukungabi nangqondo kobuholi bomphakathi. Kodwa igunya lamasosha limi kabi kakhulu futhi ukwamukelwa kwalo okudumile, okuthathe igxalaba onyakeni odlule, kwehla amapayipi amasha.
Amasosha angaphansi kwengcindezi enkulu evela e-US ukuthi akhuphule ukusebenza kwawo ngokumelene neTaliban ngasemngceleni we-Afghanistan, noma avumele i-US eholwa yi-International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) ukuthi yenze ukuhlasela okulwa namasosha. I-Frontier Corps yayo ayizimisele futhi ayikwazi ukulwa ne-pro-Taliban ngokuphumelelayo futhi ingaphansi kwengcindezi yokuthi amasosha ayo aqeqeshwe yi-ISAF emisebenzini yokulwa nabavukeli.
Umphumela uba ukukhula kokuphelelwa amandla kanye nokwehla kwesiphithiphithi, okuphinde kube yisihloko sencwadi entsha ephazamisayo yentatheli engumakadebona u-Ahmed Rashid, elandelela umlando wasePakistan wangemva kukaSepthemba 11, 2001, phakathi kwempi eholwa yi-US yobushokobezi, ukungaphumeleli kanye ukugcinwa kokuthula okungenamsebenzi, ukuthembela ezikhulwini zempi ezinonya kanye nemibango yasendaweni eshubile - konke kuphambene nesizinda sezifiso zesifunda sasePakistan kanye nobudlelwano bayo obunzima neNdiya, manje esenezelwa isici esiyingozi senuzi kuyo.
Izehlakalo ezimbili zakamuva zenze lesi simo saba nzima nakakhulu. Esokuqala yisaziso esikhishwe uhulumeni wasePakistan ngoJulayi 26 ebeka i-Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) ngaphansi koMnyango Wezangaphakathi, nokuhoxiswa kwayo kungakapheli amahora ayisikhombisa kulandela imibhikisho yehhovisi likaMengameli kanye nekomkhulu lamasosha. Lokhu kuye kwabizwa ngokuthi โi-fiasco yonyakaโ. Esinyathelweni sakamuva, uhulumeni ubeke ngokusemthethweni lo myalelo.
Okwesibili izinsolo ezikhulayo ezikhungweni ze-US zokuthi i-ISI ibambe iqhaza emisebenzini eminingi yomshoshaphansi e-Afghanistan, okuhlanganisa nokuhlaselwa kukaJulayi 7 kweNxusa laseNdiya eKabul, lapho kwabulawa khona amaNdiya amane kanye nabanye abangu-56. Lokhu kube nomthelela omubi - kodwa ngesihawu, akuzange kuhoxiswe - inqubo yokuthula eshubile futhi emile neNdiya. Lolu hlelo seluvele lusesigabeni esibucayi uma kubhekwa uhulumeni wezakhamizi obuthakathaka wasePakistan kanye nokhetho lukazwelonke lwase-India cishe kusasele izinyanga eziyisishiyagalolunye.
Isaziso nge-ISI sabekwa isikhathi ukuze siqondane nokuvakasha kukaNdunankulu u-Yousuf Raza Gilani e-US kanye nokuqinisekisa uMengameli uGeorge W. Bush ukuthi i-ISI ngaphansi kokulawulwa yizakhamuzi izosebenzisana kakhulu ne-US empini yayo yokulwa namaphekula. Ukuhoxa kwayo kwaba nomphumela ophambene, okuholele ekutheni uBush abuze uGilani ukuthi ubani olawula i-ISI. Okubaluleke nakakhulu, yagqamisa ukuba sengozini kukahulumeni wezakhamuzi ngokumelene nebutho lezempi, elingafuni ukuyeka ukulawula le nhlangano enedumela elibi futhi kudala yasebenzisa inqubomgomo yePakistan maqondana ne-India kanye ne-Afghanistan. Lokhu kubuyisela emuva intando yeningi yasePakistan.
Umlayezo Okhonjiwe
Intuthuko yesibili ibaluleke kakhulu. NgoJulayi 12, i-Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) yathumela isekela lomqondisi wayo, uStephen R. Kappes, ePakistan nobufakazi bokuxhumana kwe-ISI namaphekula e-Al Qaeda. Kanye no-Admiral Mike Mullen, uSihlalo weJoint Chiefs of Staff, wethula "umlayezo oqondile" ezikhulwini zasePakistan. Ukucaphuna i-New York Times: "ukuhlolwa kwe-CIA kukhomba ngokuqondile ukuxhumana phakathi kwamalungu [e-ISI] kanye nenethiwekhi yamaphekula. eholwa nguMaulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, izikhulu zaseMelika ezikholelwa ukuthi zigcina ubudlelwano obusondelene nezikhulu eziphezulu ze-Al Qaeda ezindaweni zezizwe zasePakistan. UHaqqani kuthiwa ungubuso beTaliban ephinde yavuka ezindaweni ezilawulwa yiFederally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Kungokokuqala ukuthi i-CIA ibhekane ne-Islamabad ngezobunhloli eziphakamisa ukuthi ibidlulisela kumasosha abalulekile mayelana nezinhlelo ezihleliwe ze-ISAF zokulwa namaTaliban, ngaleyo ndlela ibenze bakwazi ukubalekela ukuhlasela. Kusukela ngaleso sikhathi, i-CIA kanye nohulumeni waseNdiya bathi i-ISI ihileleke ekuhlaselweni kweKabul, eqinisekisa izinsolo eziphindaphindwe kaningi zikaMongameli wase-Afghanistan uHamid Karzai kanye nokuhlonza kwakhe i-ISI njengomthombo wokuhlaselwa kwamaphekula okuningi okubalwe ukuthunaza izwe lakhe. Iziphathimandla zasePakistan ziyakuphika lokhu, kodwa hhayi ngokugculisayo.
E-Colombo, uNdunankulu u-Manmohan Singh ulusukumele lolu daba no-Gilani, owathembisa ukuthi uzokhipha uphenyo oluzimele mayelana nezinsolo, ezinomthelela omkhulu ohlelweni lokuthula lwase-India-Pakistan.
Kodwa-ke, uMusharraf usesole i-India ngokudala uthuthuva eBalochistan. UMnyango Wezangaphandle wasePakistan uphinde wamangalela i-India ne-Afghanistan ngokudala udlame ezindaweni zabo zezizwe, futhi wabhikishela ukusebenza kwamanxusa aseNdiya emadolobheni ahlukahlukene ase-Afghanistan, okuhlanganisa iJalalabad, Kandahar kanye neMazar-e-Sharif. Isole ukuthi ohulumeni baseNdiya nabase-Afghan basebenze ngazwi linye, futhi bathwesa i-Afghanistan icala ngokwehluleka kwayo ukuvikela inxusa layo eliseHerat eWestern Afghanistan ekuhlaselweni ngoJulayi 31.
INDAWO YEMPILO ENKULU
Noma ngabe ikuphi ukufaneleka okuqondile kwalawa macala kanye nezindleko eziphikisanayo, kunokungabaza okuncane ukuthi i-Afghanistan isiphenduke inkundla yempi enkulu yombango we-India-Pakistan. Bobabili balwela ithonya noma ukubusa kulelo zwe.
IPakistan ayifuni nje ukugcina ithonya layo ezweni osekunesikhathi eside ilithatha njengegceke lamasu, noma isifunda esilinikeza โukujula kwamasuโ. Iphinde ifune ukuphika i-India noma yiliphi ithonya e-Afghanistan. Izinto eziningi eButhweni Lezempi lasePakistan zikholelwa ukuthi iTaliban ingasetshenziswa njengokuzivikela kumasosha e-ISAF eduze kweDurand Line, ngendlela esebenzise ngayo izidlamlilo zamajehadi eKashmir ngokumelene neButho LaseNdiya.
I-India, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ayifuni nje ukugcina nokujulisa ubudlelwano bayo obungokomlando ne-Afghanistan, okuwuhlelo olusemthethweni. Kubukeka sengathi futhi ibheka indawo lapho kuzoqalwa khona imisebenzi enezinga eliphansi ngaphesheya komngcele ingene ePakistan. Leyo njongo ingaphansi kokusemthethweni, futhi izingozi ezidonsela i-India ekubhekaneni okubi, okuvulekile, okungase kubulale abantu abaningi abangenacala, ikakhulukazi abantu base-Afghan, ukusiza okuyinqubomgomo yase-India.
Thola ekudambiseni ukungezwani
Ochwepheshe abaningi bamasu bama-hawkish baseNdiya bakhuthaza ukuzibandakanya okujulile kwamaNdiya e-Afghanistan. Kodwa i-India inokuningi okumele ikuzuze ngokudambisa nokuqeda lo mbango. I-India yenze uhlelo olukhulu losizo e-Afghanistan futhi isanda kwandisa isuka ku-$750 million yaya ku-$1.2 billion. Ngokungafani namaphrojekthi osizo aseNtshonalanga, i-India ithumela usizo lwayo ngqo kubamukeli, ngaphandle kokuxhumana nabantu abaningi. Usizo lwaseNdiya lugxile kangcono kunosizo lwaseNtshonalanga ezidingweni ezizwakalayo ekunakekelweni kwezempilo, imfundo, ezokuthutha zasemadolobheni, nasekuqeqeshweni kwezisebenzi zikahulumeni, osomaqhinga, amaphoyisa kanye nezobulungiswa. Lokhu kwenze i-India yazuza umusa omkhulu e-Afghanistan.
Kungaba yintshisekelo ye-India ukunikeza izindlela zokuphepha nezokwakha ukuzethemba e-Islamabad, okuhlanganisa namaphrojekthi osizo oluyimbumba e-Afghanistan. I-India kufanele ibandakanye i-Pakistan ngokuqhubekayo futhi isheshise inqubo yokuthula.
Lokhu kuyimpoqo yezombangazwe namasu. Okunye ukuncintisana ezweni elicekeleke phansi futhi elingazinzile, okuzolimaza izintshisekelo zakho zombili i-India nePakistan - futhi ngaphezu kwakho konke, abantu base-Afghan.
UPraful Bidwai ungumbhali wezindaba njalo wephephabhuku iFrontline kanye Nomunye Wenhlangano Yezizwe Ngezizwe.
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