Njengoba iNew Delhi kanye ne-Islamabad belungiselela ukuqala kabusha inkhulumomphendvulwano yabo yamazwe amabili, inqubomgomo yaseNdiya maqondana nomakhelwane wayo osentshonalanga ibhekene nenselelo engakaze ibonwe. Indlela i-India eyenza ngayo impendulo yayo esimeni esiyinkimbinkimbi nesishintsha ngokushesha e-Pakistan nase-Afghanistan izoba nomthelela ngokwezinga elikhulu isiphetho sesinye sezifunda eziguquguqukayo kakhulu emhlabeni, okuyingxenye yenkinga lapho umlando womhlaba wenziwe khona. Ukubhekana nenselele kudinga ukuqondiswa kabusha okuqinile kwezinye zezindawo ezibalulekile nezinto ezibalulekile zenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yaseNdiya. Cabanga nge-Afghanistan kuqala.
Ushintsho olukhulu lwenzeka ekulinganiseni kwamandla e-Afghanistan. Amasosha aseNorth Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) aholwa yi-United States kanye namasosha e-Afghan National Army asethule i-Operation Mushtarak ("ndawonye" e-Dari), okungenye yezigameko ezinkulu zokuhlasela kwamasosha aseNtshonalanga kusukela ekuhlaselweni kwe-Afghanistan ngo-Okthoba 2001. ukusebenza, namasosha angu-15,000, kwaqala ngokuhlasela kukaMarjah (inani labantu: 80,000) esifundazweni saseSouth Helmand, inqaba yamaTaliban iminyaka eminingi. Ngokungafani nezinye izinhlaka zamasosha ezenziwa yi-US-holwa yi-International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), i-Operation Mushtarak yenzelwe ukwakha imodeli entsha edlula ukucaciswa kweTaliban. Ihlose ukumisa kabusha ubukhosi base-Afghan ngokufaka uhulumeni wezakhamuzi, ohlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zomphakathi futhi ongazuza ukwesekwa okudumile nokuba semthethweni. Eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili edlule, amadolobha amaningi namadolobhana asulwe eTaliban-Al Qaeda ngamasosha e-ISAF abone amasosha ebuya futhi azimisa kabusha. Kulokhu, amasosha azoletha uhulumeni wase-Afghan okuhlanganisa namaphoyisa futhi aqhubeke nokuweseka. Njengoba uGeneral Stanley McChrystal, umkhuzi omkhulu waseMelika, akubeka: โSinohulumeni osebhokisini, olungele ukungena.โ
I-New York Times yabika: โNgaphezu kwanoma yisiphi isikhathi kusukela ngo-2001, amasosha aseMelika nawe-NATO azogxila kancane ekubulaleni abashokobezi baseTaliban kunokwakha izakhamuzi zase-Afghan nokwakha izwe lase-Afghanistan. 'Isibalo sabantu akusona isitha', uBrigadier General Larry Nicholson, umkhuzi wamasosha asemanzini eningizimu ye-Afghanistan, etshela iqulu lamasosha kuleli sonto. 'Isibalo sabantu siwumklomelo - yingakho singena.' โ
Kungokokuqala ukuthi i-US inake intuthuko kanye nezikhungo zokubusa e-Afghanistan - into okufanele ngabe iyenze ngokushesha ngemuva kokuxoshwa kweTaliban ngo-2002. Ukuthi lo mfanekiso wokwakha isizwe uzophumelela noma cha akucaci. Ekuvivinyweni iqhinga elisha lokulwa nokuvukela umbuso elihlongozwe uGeneral McChrystal, okuyisisekelo lapho uMengameli waseMelika uBarack Obama esanda kunquma ukuthumela amasosha ase-US angu-30,000 10,000 e-Afghanistan futhi abhale amanye angu-113,000 150,000 avela kwamanye amazwe e-NATO, okukhuphula amandla e-ISAF esuka ku-XNUMX kuya ezingaphezu kuka-XNUMX ngo-August. Lokhu kuhlasela, kubalwa, kuzowenza buthaka amaTaliban ngokwanele ukuthi abaningi babo bafune ukuhlubuka e-Afghan National Army (ANA) futhi bangene ohlelweni lokuhlanganisa nokubuyisana. I-US izoqala ukuhoxisa amasosha ngoJulayi ngonyaka ozayo.
Noma ngabe leli qhinga liphumelela esifundazweni saseHelmand, kunzima ukubona ukuthi linganwetshwa kanjani kulo lonke elase-Afghanistan ngaphandle kokwenza isibalo esikhulu kakhulu samasosha kune-150,000. Futhi imibono yomphakathi awekho emazweni angama-40 anikele ngamasosha ku-ISAF - ikakhulukazi ngamanani amancane; isibonelo, oyedwa ovela e-Georgia, abane base-Austria, nabayisikhombisa ngamunye abavela e-Ireland nase-Jordan - uthanda ukuthumela amabutho engeziwe empini abantu abaningi abayibona njengengenakunqotshwa. Lokhu kuyiqiniso nge-US, lapho amaphesenti angama-59 abantu aphikisana nokuthumela amasosha amaningi.
Udaba olubucayi ukuthi amabutho aholwa yi-US angakwazi yini ukulimaza owanele kumaTaliban futhi asungule ukufana kweziphathimandla zomphakathi ukuze inqubo yokuhlanganisa okuxoxwe ngayo engqungqutheleni yakamuva yaseLondon e-Afghanistan ikwazi ukusebenza. Impendulo emfushane ithi, lokhu akwenzeki kunikezwe irekhodi le-ISAF kanye nohlobo lodweshu lwase-Afghan. Kuze kube manje, amasosha e-ISAF angu-113,000, asekelwa ngamasosha angu-104,000, awakwazanga ukubamba, ukuvimba noma ukubulala isibalo esincane samadoda e-Al Qaeda aphephele esifundeni - alinganiselwa ku-100 e-Afghanistan kanye nama-300 ePakistan.
Ukuphakama kwezinombolo okunqumayo, kanye nokuphakama kwezicishamlilo - okuhlinzekwa ngama-drones, amabhomu aqondiswa nge-laser, izindiza zokulwa nazo zonke ezinye izikhali zobuchwepheshe obuphezulu - akuzange kuvumele i-ISAF ukuthi inqobe i-Taliban-Al Qaeda. Ngempela, ezingxenyeni ezithile ze-Afghanistan, amaTaliban athuthuka ngokuzethemba. Iningi labalweli bayo mancane amathuba okuthi lijoyine i-ANA, neholo layo eliphansi nokuziphatha kahle, noma ngabe lifunjathiswa, njengoba i-US ihlose ukwenza. Ngokulandela umkhuba osekukudala wasungulwa, abalwi base-Afghan bayakwazi ukugcina isifumbathiso ngenkathi becekela phansi i-ANA.
Iqiniso liwukuthi i-US ayinalo isu elicacile lokuqeda impi yase-Afghanistan - ngaphezu kwalokho eyayinalo ngenkathi iyiqala. IGlobal War on Terror kaGeorge W. Bush kwaba ukusabela kwamadolo ekuhlaselweni kwangoSepthemba 2001 kusukela esikhungweni esinomqondo oqinile wezempi, owakhipha isinqumo ngokuzenzakalelayo njengokushushisa abaholi be-Al Qaeda esithangamini sezomthetho esifana ne-International Criminal Court noma inkantolo ekhethekile eyakhiwe ngaphansi kweNhlangano Yezizwe Ezihlangene futhi yakha i-Afghanistan entsha ngokusebenzisa izikhungo zentando yeningi nokubamba iqhaza okudumile ohlelweni lwentuthuko oluxhaswe ngokukhululekile - kakhulu njengoHlelo lukaMarshall.
I-US ngokuyisisekelo ibifuna ukujezisa i-Al Qaeda-Taliban ngo-9/11 futhi ibanciphise ngokwezempi. IWashington kanye nabalweli bayo baqamba noma yiliphi inani lezizathu zokungenelela e-Afghanistan, njengoba benza e-Iraq kanye naseYugoslavia yangaphambili - okuhlanganisa ukulwa nenhlekelele yomhlaba wonke yobuphekula, ukwakha intando yeningi, ukwenza umphakathi ube wesimanjemanje owawusabanjwe ngesikhathi senkathi ephakathi kanye nokukhuthaza ukusiza abantu. inhloso yokukhulula abesifazane base-Afghan. Kodwa njengoba u-Obama ekubeka enkulumweni yakhe yangoDisemba 1 ememezela ukudlondlobala kwempi, inhloso yangempela โkwakuwukuphazamisa, ukudiliza, nokunqoba i-Al Qaeda e-Afghanistan nasePakistan, kanye nokuvimbela amandla ayo okusongela iMelika kanye nabalingani bethu esikhathini esizayoโ. Lokhu akuhlangene kangako nabantu base-Afghan kuneMelika.
Isiphetho asinakugwenywa ukuthi i-US izoshiya i-Afghanistan kusiphithiphithi esibi, nesiqiniseko esincane sokuthi "umfutho weTaliban" ungahlehliswa futhi "ikhono layo lokuketula uhulumeni" likhubazekile - izinhloso ze-US ezishiwo. Njengoba isimo sase-Afghanistan sishintsha ngezindlela zayo eziguquguqukayo nezingagxilile, i-US izoncika kakhulu ePakistan, hhayi nje ngokusekelwa kwezinto kodwa nokulamula kwezepolitiki. Eqinisweni, u-Gen. Pervez Ashafaq Kayani unikeze ukulamula ngokuthola ibutho elikhulu le-Taliban, elilawulwa ngabazalwane baseHaqqani, ohlelweni lokubuyisana lwase-US.
IPakistan izofuna ukunweba futhi ijulise umthelela wayo e-Afghanistan, okuhlanganisa nethonya layo lezempi, hhayi okungenani ngoba inovalo ngemisebenzi yaseNdiya lapho. Izophinde iqhubekisele phambili isivumelwano esinzima ne-US nganoma yiluphi usizo olunikeza amasosha e-NATO, okuhlanganisa nolunye usizo lwezempi nolwezomnotho. Ngokweqile, ingacela okuthile okufana nesivumelwano senuzi phakathi kwe-India ne-US
Usongo ekuvikelekeni kwesifunda
Akukho kulokhu, okuhlanganisa ne-Afghanistan eneziyaluyalu ngokwengxenye ngaphansi kokulawulwa kweTaliban, okubonisa kahle ukuphepha kwesifunda. Kwaba kubi ngokwanele ukuthi i-US isayine isivumelwano senuzi ne-India, esingagcini nje ngokugunyaza izikhali zenuzi zaseNdiya kodwa esivumela i-India ukuthi yandise izikhali zayo zenuzi. Ngokugcina ama-reactors ayo ayisishiyagalombili embusweni wokuhlolwa kwamazwe ngamazwe, i-India ngonyaka ingakhiqiza i-plutonium elinganiselwa ku-200 kg yezinga lezikhali kuphethiloli esetshenzisiwe nge-uranium yomdabu kuphela - eyanele amabhomu e-Nagasaki angama-40 kuye kwangama-80 ngonyaka - ngaphandle kokwandisa kakhulu izikhungo zayo zempi yenuzi. Kungaba kubi kakhulu uma iPakistan ingathola ilayisense efanayo. Lokhu kuzosho umjaho osheshisiwe wezikhali zenuzi eNingizimu ye-Asia.
Okubi nakakhulu kuzoba umphumela wokukhuphuka kombango we-India-Pakistan e-Afghanistan, okuqinisekile ukugcina lelo zwe elimpofu kakhulu, elihlukene futhi elihlaselwe yimpi emathumba isikhathi eside, eside. Lokho kungadala indawo yokuthi amaTaliban namanye amabutho anontamolukhuni ukuthi ande, ngaleyo ndlela kuqhubekisele phambili ukucekela phansi iPakistan futhi kwandise usongo lwamaphekula eNdiya kusuka emaqenjini amajehadi.
I-Pakistan inovalo ngeqhaza le-India e-Afghanistan ngenxa yezizathu ezimbi nezinhle. Owokuqala uhlobene neqiniso lokuthi i-India ithokozela umusa omkhulu e-Afghanistan ngenxa yohlelo lwayo lokusiza umphakathi oluyizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.7, olukalwe emhlabeni wonke njengoluhamba phambili kuzo zonke izifundazwe. Ngokungafani nosizo lwaseNtshonalanga, oludluliswa ngezingqimba zabalamuli, usizo lwamaNdiya lulethwa kakhulu ngaphandle kwabaphakathi nabancane. Futhi ifaneleka kakhulu izidingo ze-Afghanistan nengqalasizinda yayo yakudala, okuhlanganisa imigwaqo emibi, ukuntuleka kwezikhungo zezokwelapha, izikole nochwepheshe abaqeqeshiwe. Ngawo wonke ama-akhawunti, uhlelo lwase-India lokuqeqesha izisebenzi zikahulumeni zase-Afghan, amanxusa, izishayamthetho, amajaji namaphoyisa ludume kakhulu.
Izizathu ezinhle zasePakistan zokwesaba i-India zihlobene nokuvulwa kwamanxusa amaningi yiNdiya emadolobheni lapho ingenawo amabhizinisi asemthethweni kanye nokukhathazeka ngokuthi lezi zingase zisetshenziselwe ukuxhasa isenzo esiyimfihlo nokudala izinkinga eBalochistan, okubonakala sengathi kube ubufakazi obuthile. Kubalulekile ukuthi i-India idambise ukwesaba kwePakistan futhi ibandakanye i-Islamabad ebudlelwaneni bokubambisana e-Afghanistan. Indlela engcono kakhulu yokwenza lokho ukubona ukuthi i-India nePakistan banezintshisekelo ezisemthethweni e-Afghanistan. I-India inobudlelwano obuneminyaka eminyaka ubudala ne-Afghanistan obusekelwe emasikweni, ezohwebo, umculo, ulimi nokudla - i-Afghanistan iwumthombo oyinhloko wezithelo ezomile kanye ne-heeng (asafoetida) engeniswe eNdiya. I-India nayo inesandla sezokuphepha ekuquketheni ukweqisa kwesitayela seTaliban nemithelela yayo yasekhaya.
I-Pakistan ayiyena kuphela umakhelwane oseduze ne-Afghanistan, inezifundazwe ezimbili eziguquguqukayo emngceleni ozinzayo ezibalulekile ekusindeni kwePakistan. IPakistan inamaPashtun amaningi ngaphakathi kwemingcele yawo kunokuhlala e-Afghanistan futhi inentshisekelo esemthethweni enhlalakahleni yabo kanye nokumelwa kwezepolitiki.
Ukuqashelwa kwezintshisekelo ezifanayo kufanele kuholele ekuhlanganyeleni okuthile ezinhlelweni zokuthuthukisa kanye nokuqukatha izici eziyingozi. Lokhu ngeke kube lula ukukufeza inqobo nje uma amasosha esanamandla e-Afghanistan futhi abheka i-Afghanistan njengebalulekile ekutholeni โukujula kwamasuโ. Kodwa i-India kumele izame konke okusemandleni ayo ukubeka ukubambisana ku-ajenda - uma kunesidingo, ngokwandisa ububanzi "bengxoxo eyinhlanganisela" futhi ngokuphakamisa ingqungquthela yesifunda ehilela bonke abadlali abathintekayo, kuhlanganise ne-Iran ne-China.
Lokhu kusho ukuvuselela indlela yenqubomgomo yaseNdiya eya ePakistan. I-India idinga ukuthula nokubuyisana ne-Pakistan hhayi nje ngezizathu ezibalulekile njengokuzikhulula emthwalweni wokuncintisana kwesifunda, okubophela i-India phansi futhi kuyivimbele ukuthi ingene eNhlanganweni Enkulu Yezizwe. Ukubuyisana kubalulekile ukuze kube nokuthula, ukuphepha kanye nempumelelo esifundeni. I-India ayikwazi ukuvikeleka ngaphandle uma inokuthula, ngaphezu kwakho konke, nomakhelwane bayo, okufanele bona babe sendleleni yokuqinisa intando yeningi yabantu kanye nokukhula okubandakanya wonke umuntu.
I-India kumele yakhe isu lokudweba iPakistan ebudlelwaneni obuthi ithiyori yobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe โco-bondingโ- isimo sokusebenzisana phakathi kwezimbangi zangaphambili lapho zibophelana khona ekugwemeni izingxabano nokusebenzisana ngenani lezinhlelo zesikhungo, ezifana Ukubambisana kwe-Franco-German ngeminyaka yawo-1950 kanye no-1960, okwabeka izisekelo ze-European Economic Community futhi ekugcineni i-European Union.
Lokhu kusetha umongo omkhulu wokuqaliswa kabusha kwengxoxo ye-India-Pakistan. UNdunankulu uManmohan Singh uthathe isinyathelo esamukelekayo sokuqalisa kabusha inkhulumomphendvulwano eSharm El Sheik ngoJulayi odlule. Ngokushesha lesi sinyathelo santengantenga. Akumele kube khona ukuhlehla manje. Lokhu kungenzeka kuphela uma i-India isebenzisa indlela enwetshiwe futhi ingagcini ukugcizelela ekuhwebeni kwamazwe amabili kuphelele ebuphekulani kanye nezinye izindaba ezimbalwa ezifana nokwabelana ngamanzi omfula. โIngxoxo eyinhlanganiselaโ, nefomethi yayo emisiwe yezindaba ezimbili neziyisithupha eziqhutshwa kusukela ngo-1997, yenze, naphezu kokuphazamiseka, ukwakhiwa kwezinhlobo eziningi zokusebenzisana, okuhlanganisa ukuhwebelana okuthuthukisiwe phakathi kwabantu ababili kanye nokuqonda kangcono lapho ukuhlangana kungafinyelelwa khona. .
Lokhu ukuhlolwa kwe-litmus kwenqubomgomo yezangaphandle yaseNdiya. Uma i-India isondela engxoxweni ngokungabaza, ngokunqikaza, kanye nezinzuzo ezilinganiselwe, ibeka engcupheni yokwakha ukuzethemba okuncane kakhulu e-Islamabad ukuze kube khona ukushintshana okunezithelo. Uma ibona ukuthi iPakistan ibilwa nayo uqobo, ukuthi amaqembu amajehadi anethonya elikhulu emphakathini wasePakistan njengamasosha, ukuthi ubuholi bayo bomphakathi bubuthaka futhi buvinjelwa amajehadi namasosha, nokuthi ukuqinisa ubuholi kudinga isu. umbimbi namandla okumodareyitha kanye nentando yeningi ePakistan, khona-ke i-India ingazuza lukhulu.
Akunangqondo ukulindela impumelelo esheshayo ebudlelwaneni be-India-Pakistan. Kodwa inqubekelaphambili kancane kancane, ukuqondana okungcono nokubambisana - okuhlanganisa nesithembiso sohlangothi olulodwa lokuvula imakethe yaseNdiya ezinhlobonhlobo zezimpahla ezivela ePakistan - kungafinyelelwa. Ngokufanayo, ukunqanda ukuncintisana kwezempi kanye nokubangisana kwenuzi kuyinto ehamba phambili ephuthumayo.
Konke lokhu kusho ukuzibandakanya okungathi sรญna, okusondelene futhi okungaphazamiseki ngisho noma kuqashelwa ukuthi okunye ukuhlasela kwamaphekula okukhulu, okuhlanganisa ukusebenza kwesitayela sase-Mumbai, ngeke kukhishwe. Lena inketho enzima, efana nomuthi obabayo. Kodwa alikho elinye ikhambi lalesi sifo.
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