EKUFINYELENI esivumelwaneni phakathi kwawo sokubika i-Iran kuMkhandlu Wezokuphepha WeNhlangano Yezizwe ngokwehluleka ukuthobela izinqumo zangaphambili ze-International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), amazwe e-P-5 kanye neJalimane ayeke uHulumeni waseManmohan Singh ukuba ahlukane. Uma kunokuvumelana emhlanganweni wangoFebhuwari 2-3 we-IAEA Board of Governors (BoG) mayelana nesinqumo esisalungiswa esibika i-Iran, i-India idinga ukuhambisana nayo. Futhi noma ngabe i-Cuba, i-Venezuela, kanye nezwe elilodwa noma amaningi angachemile enqaba ukusekela lesi sinqumo, amavoti okuqinisekisa okungenzeka aseRussia neChina azonikeza uHulumeni We-United Progressive Alliance umqamelo owanele wokubhekana nanoma yikuphi ukugxekwa kwezepolitiki yasekhaya.
Ngemuva komhlangano wangoMsombuluko waseBrithani, iChina, iRussia, iFrance, iJalimane kanye ne-United States, izinombolo ezivuna ivoti eliqinisekisiwe ku-BoG enamalungu angama-35 zizoba phezulu kunalezo ezazikhona ngoSepthemba odlule. Ngemva kokwenza lelo voti langempela รขโฌโelithole i-Iran ingathobeli izibopho zayo zokuvikela รขโฌโ I-India isibuyele ekubeni umdlali omncane imibono yakhe ayinandaba kangako kwabase-Irani ngisho nangaphansi kwe-P-5. Kunoma ikuphi, njengoba i-Big Five isinqume ngesinyathelo esithile, kuncane okuyigugu noma yiliphi izwe noma iqembu lamazwe elingakwenza ngempela ukuze lime endleleni kulesi sigaba segeyimu okungenani.
I-Russia ne-China, abebekade bephikisana nokubika i-Iran ku-UNSC, bathathe isinqumo esiphusile sokuhlehla. Inhloso yabo, mhlawumbe, wukulwa ngolunye usuku, enkundleni yempi lapho bengasebenzisa khona amandla abo e-veto.
E-India, impikiswano mayelana nevoti likaHulumeni waseManmohan Singh ngokumelene ne-Iran ngoSepthemba odlule yayihlukanisiwe kangangokuthi kwakuvame ukukhohlwa ukuthi izigxobo zaziphakeme kakhulu kunokuphepha kwegesi noma isiphetho sesivumelwano sokubambisana kwezikhali zenuzi ne-U.S. okufanele kuqondwe yiwo wonke umuntu ukuthi i-US izimisele ngokubeka inkundla yokungqubuzana kwezempi ne-Iran. Futhi ukuthi inkambo nomphumela wokungqubuzana okunjalo kuzoba nemiphumela emibi kakhulu esifundeni sethu kunempi yase-Iraq kuze kube manje.
Ukuvumelana okwenzeka eLondon ngoMsombuluko kubuyisela emuva ngenyanga uhlelo lwezikhathi okuzokwenziwa ngalo le nhlekelele. Kunqunywe ukuthi iBhodi Lababusi libike i-Iran eMkhandlwini Wezokuphepha kuleli sonto kodwa leli sonto ngeke lilusukumele lolu daba ukuze lucutshungulwe kuze kube yilapho uMqondisi Jikelele we-IAEA uMohammed el-Baradei ethule umbiko wakhe wakamuva nge-Iran ku-BoG isonto lokuqala likaMashi. Kunevalvu yokugcina yokuphepha efakwe yiRussia neChina: Baphikelela, futhi i-US kanye nabalingani bayo bavumelana, ukuthi uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha kufanele futhi โulindeโฆ noma yisiphi iSinqumo esivela emhlanganweni kaMashi [weBhodi le-IAEA], ngaphambi kokuthatha isinqumo sokuthatha isenzo sokuqinisa igunya lenqubo ye-IAEA."
Ephepheni okungenani, lokhu kusho ukuthi uMkhandlu Wezokuphepha ngeke usebenze ngisho nangoNdasa ngaphandle kokugunyazwa okucacile okuvela kwesinye isinqumo se-IAEA. Kusazobonakala ukuthi lesi sigaba somthetho sihlanganiswa kanjani nesinqumo esisalungiswa esizosatshalaliswa kuBhodi ye-IAEA ngomhla zi-2 kuNhlolanja.
NgoSepthemba odlule, ukuvumelana okufinyelelwe ne-India namanye amazwe kwakuwukuthi nakuba i-Iran izobanjelwa ukungathobeli, isikhathi sombiko woMkhandlu Wezokuphepha sizonqunywa kamuva. Ukuvumelana namuhla ukuthi ngenkathi i-Iran izobikwa, isikhathi sanoma yisiphi isenzo soMkhandlu Wezokuphepha sizonqunywa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
I-gameplan yase-U.S
Ngaso sonke isikhathi lapho kujabulisa ingcindezi engapheli yeWashington e-Iran, umphakathi wamazwe omhlaba wenziwa ukuthi ukhuphukele phezulu esitebhisini amanqamu awo okugcina angaba unswinyo nempi kuphela. Lona kanye indlela i-US eyalandela ngayo ngokumelene ne-Iraq emzamweni wayo wokwenza ushintsho lombuso lapho. Impi yayo yokuqeda amandla isebenzisa unswinyo, ukuhlola, izindawo okungenwa kuzo impukane, ukuhlasela kwezindiza, kanye nezinqumo ezingenakwenzeka zathatha iminyaka engu-12 ngaphambi kokuba igcine ngokuhlasela okungamangaza muntu.
Enkulumweni eqotho ku-Arms Control Association eWashington ngesonto eledlule, uHans Blix, owayeyinhloko ye-UN Monitoring and Verification Commission (UNMOVIC), uphinde wabeka icala alenzile ngaphambi kokuthi i-US yayingakaze ibe nesithakazelo ngempela ekuhlolweni kwezikhali e-Iraq. โInkolelo yami ukuthi ukube besivunyelwe ukuqhubeka nokuhlola ezinye izinyanga ezimbalwa, ngabe sesikwazile ukuya kuzo zonke izingosi esizinikezwe ngabezobunhloli, futhi njengoba bezingekho izikhali zamasosha. ukucekelwa phansi kwenqwaba, ngabe sibike ukuthi abekho." Nokho, ngisho nangombiko onjalo, uDavid Ruppe we-Global Security Newswire wamcaphuna ethi, cishe impi yayingeke igwenywe njengoba โkwakunomfutho othile ngemva kwayo.โ
Ngabe sikhona isifundo kukho konke lokhu umhlaba ongasifunda njengoba inkinga yase-Iran iqhubeka kancane? UMnu. Blix ngokuqinisekile ucabanga ukuthi kukhona. "Namuhla, ngicabanga ukuthi ngikhathazekile nge-spin kanye nomfutho we-Iran," esho. Futhi kungenzeka. I-US ayazi ukuthi kunesinqumo sephalamende lase-Iranian, i-Majlis, efuna ukuthi i-Iran ihoxise ukwamukela kwayo okwesikhashana i-Extra Protocol ngokushesha nje lapho i-IAEA idlulisela udaba lwayo eMkhandlwini Wezokuphepha. I-Iran iwumphakathi onepolitiki oxube kakhulu futhi ohlukene phakathi futhi maningi amathuba okuthi amaLungu ePhalamende azofuna ukuqaliswa kwalesi sinqumo uma iBhodi le-IAEA livota ngendlela i-U.S. efisa ngayo. Kuzokwenzekani uma i-Iran isihoxile kuSivumelwano Esengeziwe, ijoyina, kule nqubo, amazwe ayi-106 angakawusayini lowo mbhalo? Abahloli be-IAEA ngeke besakwazi ukuvakashela izindawo ezingaphandle kwalezo esezivele zivikelekile.
Uma ngempela i-Iran yakhe izikhungo zenuzi eziyimfihlo รขโฌโnjengoba iBrithani ne-U.S. bekholelwa ukuthiรขโฌโngeke kube nomphumela omubi kakhulu ngombono wokungabhebhetheki kunokuba abahloli be-IAEA balahlekelwe `ukuhamba ngokuthanda kwakho'. Kodwa-ke, ngendlela ehlanekezelwe, yilokhu abaphathi bakaBush abanethemba lokuthi i-Iran izokwenza. Uma abahloli be-IAEA belahlekelwa ukufinyelela okukhethekile abakujabulelayo njengamanje, lokhu kuzovumela i-U.S. ukuthi ifune okunye ukukhuphuka รขโฌโ okuchaza ukuphuthuma kokufinyelela futhi.
Ingabe ikhona indlela yokuphuma kule nkinga? Kukhona, futhi ngaleyo ndlela kuhlanganisa ukuhlanganisa ukuqhubeka kokuhlolwa ngokuthuthukiswa kwamaphakheji amabili okuvumelana, eyodwa yezobuchwepheshe, enye yezomnotho. Owokuqala uzofuna ukunxenxa i-Iran ukuthi yamukele inguqulo yesiphakamiso sokucebisa i-Russian offshore futhi egcwalisa amalungelo e-Iran njengomsayini we-NPT. Iphakethe lesibili lizofuna ukuhlinzeka ngeziqinisekiso zeTehran ngokumelene unswinyo lwezomnotho kanye nezinsongo zezempi. Kungakhathalekile ukuthi iBhodi ye-IAEA inqumani kuleli sonto, i-India kumele ihlanganyele namanye amazwe ukugcizelela ukuthi i-US kanye nabalingani bayo bangehli endleleni yokuphoqelelwa nokubhekana.
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