KULELI sonto, abaholi bamazwe amaningana ase-Asia — India, China, Korea, Japan, kanye nezifunda zase-ASEAN — bazohlangana eMalaysia eNgqungqutheleni yokuqala ngqa yaseMpumalanga Asia (EAS). I-Australia ne-New Zealand, njenge-India, esemaphethelweni e-East Asia, nayo imenyiwe engqungqutheleni njengoba ithathwa njengebalulekile esimweni somnotho walesi sifunda. Eminyakeni eminingi kwenziwa, i-EAS iseyinto yenani elingaziwa. Amazwe abambe iqhaza ayazi ukuthi umcimbi ubalulekile, ngisho noma engenaso isiqiniseko sokuthi kungani. Izwe okuwukuphela kwalo elicace bha ngokubaluleka kwale ngqungquthela yi-United States, okuyiyona ebona ukubaluleka kwamasu ngoba ngeke ibe khona. I-US inebutho elikhulu futhi elikhulayo lamasosha ezwenikazi elisuka eTurkey nase-Iraq entshonalanga kuya e-Kyrgyz Republic enyakatho nase-Okinawa empumalanga. Amasosha ayo alwa izimpi ezimbili enhlabathini yase-Asia. Kodwa-ke, abantu bayakhohlwa iqiniso lokuthi i-US ayikho e-Asia.
Ngenkathi uMahathir Mohammed waseMalaysia eqala ukwenza isiphakamiso se-East Asian Economic Caucus ngeminyaka yawo-1990, iWashington yawuphikisa kakhulu lo mbono. IJapan, ngaphansi kwengcindezi yezohwebo evela e-US ngeSuper 301, iqale yaveza ukuthi iyaweseka lo mqondo kodwa yahlehla ngokushesha. Lesi siphakamiso sasheshe sabuna. Kube nezizathu ezizwakalayo zezomnotho zokuthi isiphakamiso saseMalaysia sihluleke ukuthola amandla ngaleso sikhathi: I-China ne-India kwakungebona abadlali abakhulu futhi amazwe ase-Asia ayehweba kakhulu nezwe langaphandle kunomunye nomunye. Futhi uhlelo lukaDkt. Mahathir lwezepolitiki lwalungelona oluhehayo. IMpi Yomshoshaphansi yayiphelile, kwakukhulunywa "ngobuningi" kanye nokukhathazeka okuncane e-Asia ukuthi izwekazi lalizodinga inhlangano ukuze ivimbele ukusetshenziswa kwamandla aseMelika. Kulesi sikhala sesikhungo, i-US, ne-Australia zingenelele ne-APEC, inkundla exhumanisa i-East Asia ne-Americas, ngaleyo ndlela kuhlanjululwa umqondo we-Asia.
Kule minyaka eyishumi nengxenye, sonke isimo samasu e-Asia sishintshile. Kunezici ezintathu ezihlukene ezihilelekile. Okokuqala, amaphethini ohwebo — kanye nemvelo yezinhlelo zokuhweba — e-Asia nasemhlabeni wonke kushintshe kakhulu. Ngaphandle kokuqala kweNhlangano Yezohwebo Yomhlaba ngokugcizelela kwayo isimo `sesizwe esithandwa kakhulu', kube nokuqhuma kwezindawo zokuhweba ezikhethwayo (ama-PTA) emhlabeni jikelele. I-Asia inesabelo sayo sama-PTA aphakathi kwamazwe amabili kodwa akukho lutho ezingeni lezizwe ngezizwe ukufanisa nalokho okwenziwe yiYurophu, iNyakatho Melika, kanye neNingizimu Melika. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuhweba kwe-intra-Asian kukhuphuke kakhulu. Ukuhwebelana kwezwe ngalinye lase-Asia neqembu `Lamazwe Athuthukayo ase-Asia' kukhuphuke ngesivinini esikhulu kunokuhweba kwawo nomhlaba wonke phakathi kuka-1991-2000, kuphawula u-Ramesh Chand weSikhungo Sikazwelonke Somnotho Wezolimo Nocwaningo Lwenqubomgomo. i-monograph yakamuva, Ukuhwebelana Kwamahhala e-Asia (Isisekelo Sezemfundo, 2006). I-China ithathe indawo ye-US njengozakwethu obaluleke kakhulu kwezohwebo neNingizimu Korea. Uhwebo lwaseNdiya neDAC lwenyuka lusuka kumaphesenti ayi-11.8 ohwebo lulonke ngo-1990 lwaya kumaphesenti angama-24 ngo-2000 (Okuwukuphela okukhulu okuhlukile kulo mkhuba yiShayina, ngenxa yomthamo omkhulu wokuhweba kwayo emhlabeni wonke). Lokhu kuchema komakhelwane kwezohwebo kuphakamisa ukuthi i-Asia ilandela indlela efanayo neyaseYurophu eyayenza ngesikhathi ilungiselela ukuhlanganiswa kwayo okusemthethweni njengenhlangano yokuhweba.
Okwesibili, ukukhula kweShayina neNdiya kanye nokutholakala kukawoyela negesi e-Asia Ephakathi kuguqule isimo samandla ase-Asia njengoba abanye babakhiqizi abakhulu nabathengi bama-hydrocarbons manje sebetholakala ezwenikazi. Kodwa-ke, ukuguquguquka kwezimakethe zomhlaba kawoyela negesi kusaqhutshwa izilinganiso ezibekwe yi-Europe kanye neNyakatho Melika. Ukuntengantenga kwentengo kwezinyanga zakamuva — okuwumkhiqizo wokuqagela ekuhwebeni kwe-western mercantile kunokuboniswa kokungafani kwangempela kwesidingo sokuhlinzekwa — kunikeza ugqozi kubakhiqizi abakhulu nabathengi base-Asia ukuthi bahlangane futhi babone ukuthi kungaba yini kwenziwa ukuqinisekisa ukuzinza okukhulu emakethe yamandla.
Okwesithathu, inqwaba yezinsongo ezintsha nezinselele zokuphepha zivele ngaphambi kuka-9/11 kanye nemiphumela yayo edinga indlela ehlangene yase-Asia. Lokhu kubandakanya ubushokobezi, ukumiswa kwamabutho ezempi angaphandle esifundeni, ukwakhiwa kwezikhali ezintsha zokucekela phansi abantu abaningi kanye nezimfundiso, imibono `yokushintsha kombuso' kanye `nempi yokuvimbela', kanye nezindaba zokuvikeleka olwandle kanye nokusiza ezinhlekeleleni.
Ngalunye lwalezi zinguquko ezintathu eziyisisekelo — kwezohwebo, ezamandla, nezokuphepha — luletha izinselele futhi luveza amathuba adinga izindlela ezihlukene zesikhungo. Akuyona into engaqondakali ukuthi unyaka odlule ubone imizamo emikhulu yamazwe amaningana ase-Asia ukusunduza kulokhu.
Ngasohlangothini lwezokuphepha, i-Shanghai Cooperation Organisation iguqukela ekubeni yinhlangano ebanzi exhumanisa i-China, i-Russia, namazwe ase-Asia Emaphakathi ne-India, i-Iran, ne-Pakistan —ejoyine njengezibukeli ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka. Kukhona nohlelo lwe-Russia-India-China olubandakanya ukubonisana njalo ngezindaba zamasu. Engqungqutheleni yayo yokugcina, i-SCO icele amasosha ombimbi aholwa yi-US esifundeni ukuthi acacise isikhathi esibekiwe ukuthi azohamba nini. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, le nhlangano isiqalile ukukhuluma ngokuthuthukisa amakhono esifunda ukubhekana nezinsongo ezibangelwa ubuphekula. Ukuzivocavoca okuhlangene kwezempi phakathi kweChina neRussia, kanye neChina neNdiya, kanye neNdiya neRussia sekubanjwe. AmaRussia manje akhuluma ngezivivinyo zamasosha ezinxantathu ezibandakanya la mazwe amathathu. Kungenzeka yini ukuthi i-SCO ibe yisibikezelo somzimba wokwakha ukuzethemba wase-pan-Asia ngokusekelwe kumqondo omusha wokuphepha wokuhloniphana nokubambisana esikhundleni sombono oyisidala, oyingozi "webhalansi yamandla"? Ukuze lokhu kwenzeke, i-India, i-China ne-Russia kufanele isebenzisane eduze kodwa i-Japan ne-South Korea nazo kuzodingeka zifakwe ngaphakathi kwe-SCO.
Ngasohlangothini lwezohwebo, inqubo ye-EAS cishe izonikeza izimpendulo mayelana nesimo esinembayo sesikhungo ukubambisana okukhulu kwase-Asia okuzosithatha. Kanye nokwakhiwa kwendawo yokuhweba mahhala yase-Asia enezivikelo zezwe elisathuthuka, kunesidingo sokuthi i-Asia ithuthukise izikhungo zayo zezezimali. Ukungabikho kwalezo zikhungo kwaholela enkingeni yezimali yase-Asia yango-1997 kanye nasekuncipheni kwayo, njengoba amazwe afana ne-Indonesia neNingizimu Korea aphoqwa i-International Monetary Fund ukuthi yamukele imibandela engenangqondo.
Ekugcineni, i-front of energy ibone amasethi amabili emihlangano ethembisayo phakathi kwabakhiqizi abakhulu base-Asia nabathengi kulo nyaka, ebanjelwe isinyathelo soMnyango WaseNdiya WePetroleum kanye Negesi Yemvelo. Ku-ajenda akuzona nje izinyathelo eziphathelene nezezimali kanye ne-inventory ukuze kuzinziswe amanani kodwa, okubaluleke nakakhulu, ukwakhiwa kwamagridi amapayipi e-pan-Asian. I igridi ehlongozwayo engu-$22 billion - eyethulwe eNew Delhi ekupheleni kukaNovemba - izovumela igesi ukuthi ihambe kalula esifundeni, kugwenywe izindawo zokuminyanisa zasolwandle ezibucayi njengeStraits of Hormuz, Malacca, neTaiwan. I-Pan-Asian energy grids izophinde inikeze amandla amakhulu ekusebenzisaneni kwezombusazwe kwesifunda kanye nokuncika phakathi.
Uma kubhekwa intuthuko kulezi zindlela ezintathu, ukuvela kwezakhiwo zamasu ase-Asia kuyindaba yesikhathi kuphela. Indiza eyodwa e-US, engathanda ukuqeda zonke lezi zinhlelo zase-Asia kuphela.
Sekuyiminyaka iWashington iphumelela ngokungavikeleki kwase-Asia, okuvame ukubhebhethekisa izinsolo nezimbangi phakathi kwamazwe. Lapho kunombono wokungavikeleki — I-China iqhathaniswa neJapane, iChina ngokumelene neNdiya, iJapane iqhathaniswa neKorea, i-India ngokumelene nePakistan, ingasaphathwa ngokungavikeleki `okuncane' — yilapho indima enkulu ye-US "njengobalancer". ”
Nakuba kuqondakala ukuthi i-US ikhuthaze umqondo `wokulinganisela,' okungachazeki isinqumo saseNdiya sokwenza kanjalo. Ku inkulumo ku-India Economic Forum ngoNovemba 28, Unobhala Wezangaphandle u-Shyam Saran unikeze usizo lwe-US India kulo mdlalo `webhalansi yamandla'. "Uma sibheka e-Asia eminyakeni ezayo, akungabazeki ukuthi kukhona ukuguqulwa okukhulu kwamandla okwenzeka e-Asia," kusho uMnu Saran. “Kukhona ukuvela kweChina njengesizinda esinamandla kwezomnotho emhlabeni. Kuzokwanda amakhono iChina ezokwazi ukuwenza kulesi sifunda nangale kwayo. I-India nayo izoba ngumdlali omkhulu e-Asia ... Ngicabanga ukuthi i-India ne-United States bangaba nesandla ekulinganiseni okungcono kakhulu esifundeni sase-Asia. "
Nakuba uMnu. Saran evuma “ukusebenzelana okuqinile” kwe-India neChina, uyanezela: “Sikholelwa ukuthi mayelana nokuphatha isimo esikhulayo sezokuphepha e-Asia sidinga ukuletha amazwe amaningi ngaphansi komgomo wezokuphepha okuvunyelwene ngazo zombili kulesi sifunda. . Ngicabanga ukuthi i-US ne-India bangafaka isandla kulokho. ” I-China, cishe, iyizwe elikhulu elidinga "isiyalo" "sombono wokuphepha" lapho i-India ne-US "banganikela khona."
Akudingi ukuhlaziya okuningi ukuqaphela ukuthi le mibono iphikisana nomoya omusha obonakala e-Asia. Uma kuhlanganiswe nezinye izinguquko zakamuva kunqubomgomo yezangaphandle yase-India, baphakamisa ukuthi ukuzibophezela kwe-India e-Asia kungase kungabi namandla kunokuzinikela kwayo e-United States.
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