Esikhathini esingaphansi konyaka, i-India ne-China zikwazile ukudida abahlaziyi emhlabeni jikelele ngokuguqula umbango wabo ohlonishwa kakhulu wokutholwa kwempahla kawoyela negesi emazweni esithathu bawenza ubudlelwano obusafufusa obungashintsha amandla emakethe yamandla omhlaba. .
Okusengcupheni akuyona nje indaba yokuthengwa ngokuhlanganyela, nakuba izivumelwano ezibaluleke kakhulu ezisayinwe eBeijing ngoJanuwari 12 ngesikhathi sokuvakasha kukaNgqongqoshe wePetroleum and Natural Gas uMani Shankar Aiyar ucabanga ukuthi i-ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) kanye neChina National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) ukubeka amabhidi ahlangene kumaphrojekthi athembisayo kwenye indawo. Kunalokho, amathemba okubambisana kwamaSino-Indian kulo lonke ubude beketango le-hydrocarbon angavula indlela yokwakhiwa kwemakethe yamandla yase-Asia kanye nezakhiwo - i-axis kawoyela yase-Asia ' enemiphumela emikhulu yezwe le-United States.
Imakethe yamazwe ngamazwe yama-hydrocarbons ayiyona imakethe yamahhala futhi ayikaze ibe yiyo. Kukhona i-cartel yabahlinzeki 'the Inhlangano Yamazwe Athumela Uphethiloli ‘ kanye nemakethe ehleleke kahle eqhutshwa ngokuyinhloko isidingo somnotho wezimboni othuthukile emhlabeni, wonke amalungu OECD. Uhwebo lwenziwa ngamadola, okuqinisekisa ngempumelelo ukuthi amazwe emhlabeni jikelele abamba izimali zawo zangaphandle ikakhulukazi njenge-greenbacks. Futhi izintengo zisethwa ngesisekelo se-Western benchmark crudes njenge-West Texas Intermediate ne-Brent, engekho emele lutho ngaphandle ingxenye encane yamafutha akhishwayo futhi idayiselwa emazweni ngamazwe. Aqine kakhulu amandla e-monopsonist e-U.S. naseYurophu kangangokuthi uwoyela uthunyelwa e-Asia usuka ePersian Gulf kubiza cishe u-$2 umphongolo ngaphezulu. Lokhu okubizwa ngokuthi yi-Asian oil premium.
Kulesi sibalo esibi kufanele kwengezwe okunye okungaguquki okubili. Okokuqala, indima ye abaqageli abahweba ngekusasa likawoyela ku-New York Mercantile Exchange kanye ne-International Petroleum Exchange futhi abanyuse amanani kawoyela afinyelela emazingeni aphezulu ngokungenangqondo. Le nkinga izoba yimbi kakhulu. ‘Kunenani elikhulu lemali ecatshangelwayo eya esikhathini esizayo samandla,’ uJames Cordier, umongameli weLiberty Trading Group eTampa, eFlorida, utshele i-Associated Press ekuqaleni kwale nyanga. Okwesibili, ukuba khona kwezempi okukhulu futhi okukhulayo kwe-US e-Asia okusekela uhlelo lwe-petro-dollar-unipolar futhi kuwumthombo omkhulu wokungazinzi nobudlova. Isikhundla sase-Asia asikwazanga ukuba sibi kakhulu. Izwekazi elisingatha abakhiqizi abakhulu emhlabeni kanye nabathengi bamandla abakhula ngokushesha liyaphoqeleka ukuthi lidlale ifilimu yesibili, lithembele ezikhungweni, izinhlaka zokuhweba kanye nebutho elihlomile elivela ngaphandle kwesifunda ukuze lihwebe ngokwalo. Isimo esinjalo senza ipolitiki engazinzi kanye nezomnotho ezimbi, ingasaphathwa eyokuma kwezwe. I-Asia Emaphakathi iseduze neChina ne-Iran kodwa i-US isichithe ingxenye engcono yeshumi leminyaka izama ukwenza isiqiniseko sokuthi amapayipi athwele uwoyela negesi asuka lapho aya ngasentshonalanga. Amapayipi egesi axhumanisa i-Iran ne-India enza umqondo wezezimali kodwa usongo lwezijeziso zase-US zisho ukuthi le phrojekthi ingase ingasuki phansi. Uma ikhulu lama-21 lizoba 'ikhulu le-Asian', ukunganaki kwe-Asia emkhakheni wamandla kufanele kuphele.
Izimo ezihlosiwe zivumela ushintsho. I-Asia Ephakathi iqhamuke njengomkhiqizi omkhulu futhi i-India ne-China yimazwe amabili ezomnotho akhula ngokushesha emhlabeni. Abahlinzeki bendabuko, nabo, banokuningi abangakuzuza emakethe yase-Asia, ikakhulukazi uma lokhu kusho ukuzinza okukhulu nokubikezelwa kwezintengo. I-Saudi Arabia ingase ithande amanani aphezulu kodwa hhayi amanani ‘aphezulu ngokungenangqondo’. Akuyona into emane iqondana nje ukuthi uhambo lokuqala lwaphesheya kweNkosi u-Abdullah luye e-China, e-India, ePakistan naseMalaysia nokuthi i-ajenda yakhe, okungenani e-Beijing nase-Delhi, ibandakanya izinhlelo ezibalulekile ezihlobene nogesi njenge indawo yokugcina uwoyela ehlongozwayo esiqhingini sase-Hainan.
Ukuze ubudlelwano obusha bamandla e-India-China busebenze, nokho, womabili la mazwe kumele alungele ukutshala imali edingekayo yezepolitiki. Kukhona izinsolo zendabuko okufanele ubhekane nazo, ngaphandle kweqiniso lokuthi ukubambisana kwezohwebo phakathi kwezinkampani, noma ngabe ziphethwe umphakathi, kungangena ebunzimeni obungokoqobo. Izivumelwano zomuntu ngamunye zisazophikisana futhi akufanele zibe imbangela yesilungulela ngokungadingekile, imibiko yakamuva IMyanmar inikezela ngegesi eChina ukuba yisibonelo. Kukhona nendima engeyinhle ye-U.S., ebona i-India njengesixhumanisi esibuthaka kakhulu kuchungechunge olusafufusa lwase-Asia. Namuhla, iWashington izama ngenkuthalo ukuphambukisa iNew Delhi kude nomsebenzi wokudala izakhiwo zesifunda ezintsha ngokulenga isanqante senuzi kanye nesithembiso sesimo samandla omhlaba ngokubambisana nayo. I-India kuzofanele imelane nalokhu kuheha uma iphrojekthi yase-Asia izoya noma yikuphi.
Isisekelo sobambiswano olusha lwe-Sino-Indian energy isiphakamiso sokuthi i-OVL ne-CNPC ifake amabhidi ahlangene ezinsizeni emazweni wesithathu. NgoDisemba odlule, izinkampani ezimbili zathenga ngempumelelo i- Izizinda zikawoyela ze-al-Furat eSyria futhi namuhla kubikwa ukuthi basebenzela ukuthengwa kwempahla eRussia I-Udmurtia Republic. Kuke kwaba nezimpi ezibuhlungu esikhathini esidlule 'eKazakhstan, ngokwesibonelo, i-OVL yahlulwa amaShayina' futhi kunezindawo lapho i-China izodlula i-India ngenxa nje yamaphakethe ayo ajulile kanye ne-élan yamasu amakhulu. Isibonelo salokhu yisinqumo seChina National Overseas Oil Corp ngasekuqaleni kukaJanuwari sokuthi Thenga insimu ye-Akpo eNigeria amasonto ngemuva kukahulumeni kaManmohan Singh veto Ukuthola okuhlongozwayo kwe-OVL kwenkambu enenzuzo ‘njengeyingozi’ kakhulu. Nokho, ububanzi bokusebenzisana phakathi kwalamazwe womabili bukhulu kakhulu.
Nakuba abanye abahlaziyi baseNtshonalanga beyichitha imizamo yamaShayina namaNdiya yokuthola 'amafutha e-equity' 'kungani uthenge insimu lapho ungahlala uthenge uwoyela emakethe, bayabuza ukuthi' yilesi sici sobambiswano okungenzeka sikhombise kakhulu. kuyacasula ukusungula ama-majors kawoyela ekuqaleni. Bobabili abenzi bakawoyela baseShayina nabamaNdiya babona iseluleko esimelene nowoyela we-equity njengokuzisiza bona, njengoba iseluleko esifanayo singanikezwa kalula izikhulu zikawoyela zaseNtshonalanga azenza ukuthengwa kwamandla afanayo emhlabeni jikelele. Njengoba uMnu u-Aiyar etshela uMa Kai, usihlalo weKhomishini Yentuthuko Yezwe kanye Nezinguquko enamandla yaseChina, ngaphambi nje kokuba la madoda amabili asayine i-MoU yawo, ‘Lapho izinkampani ezivela ezinhlangothini zombili ziletha isicelo esihlanganyelwe, akukho phrojekthi esingeke sifinyelele kuyo. Izikhulu eziphezulu zikawoyela zaseShayina zayibuyisela ngentshiseko le mizwa. "Kufanele siye phambili ndawonye futhi sicele," uChen Geng, umongameli we-CNPC, utshele uMnu Aiyar. 'Kungenjalo yiqembu lesithathu eliwinayo'.
Ngaphandle kokuthola uwoyela negesi elinganayo, kunezinye izindawo lapho izinkampani zala mazwe womabili zihlela ukubambisana. AmaShayina asungule ubuchwepheshe bokubuyisela uwoyela obusiza ukugcina ukukhiqizwa ezindaweni ezigugayo zikawoyela njenge-Dagang ne-Daqing ezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu kunezinkambu zama-Indian zevintage. Uhlangothi lwaseShayina luphinde luphumelele ekuhloleni izitsha kanye nezinsimbi zokumba. Izinkampani zaseNdiya zinenzuzo kumasevisi okuhlola nokukhiqiza anikwe amandla yi-IT. Kunobubanzi bokusebenza ndawonye kodwa lokhu kungasho ukuthi isikhungo sezokuphepha sase-India asikuthembi kangako ukuzibandakanya kochwepheshe baseShayina ezindaweni zasekhaya, ikakhulukazi ezikude nogu, izindawo zamandla. La mazwe womabili adinga futhi ukubambana ngezandla ukuthuthukisa izindlela ezintsha zokuthutha amandla, okuhlanganisa amapayipi ngaphakathi kwesifunda kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezimpahla ezibuyiselwa emuva ezinqoleni ezinkulu kakhulu ezithwala ama-crude carriers (VLCCs) kanye nokushintshaniswa ukuze kutholwe ngokuhlanganyela ukudla okungcolile okuvela ezindaweni ezikude njengaseNtshonalanga Afrika naseVenezuela.
Imakethe kawoyela yase-Asia ngama-Euro?
Ngaphezu kwakho konke, i-India ne-China badinga ukukhumbula isithombe esikhulu 'ukuvela kwemakethe yase-Asia yemikhiqizo engcolile nemikhiqizo enezinkontileka zesikhathi eside nezintengo ezinzile, futhi, ekugcineni, i-Asian Energy Union. Njengoba uMnu u-Aiyar esho enkulumweni yakhe kochwepheshe bezamandla baseChina eBeijing, i-European Union yaqala impilo njengenyunyana yamalahle nensimbi ngaphambi kokuba ikhule yaba umphakathi ogcwele wezomnotho nezepolitiki. Ingabe amandla angadlala indima efanayo e-Asia lapho i-India ne-China esebenza njengamahange eshidi ngendlela i-France ne-Germany enza ngayo e-Europe? Njengoba i-India ne-China izibophezele ekwakheni izindawo zokugcina zikaphethiloli, i-South Korea ithembisa ukusebenza ku- ‘I-Inter-Asia Oil and Gas Transportation System’, kanye ne-Iran ihlela eyakhe ibhozi ye-hydrocarbon, umbono onjalo awusekho kude.
Okuxhunyaniswa nemakethe kawoyela yase-Asia umbuzo we-euro webhiliyoni wohwebo lwamandla olungewona amadola. Amazwe ase-Asia ehlangene abambe izimali zangaphandle ezingaphezu kwezigidigidi ezimbili zamaRandi, ingxenye enkulu yazo isezisetshenziswa zedola. Izinkambiso ezihlakaniphile ziphakamisa ukuthi ukuhlukahluka kwephothifoliyo ye-Asian reserve sekwephuzile. E-China, i- I-State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE isayine inhloso yayo yokuhlola 'ukusetshenziswa kahle' kwezinqolobane ze-forex zezwe naseNdiya, abahlaziyi abafana S. Venkitramanan baphakamise ukuthi i-RBI iqale ukucabanga ngendlela efanayo.
Enye indlela yokusekela lolu shintsho kungaba ukucabangela ukuhweba kwamandla okusekelwe ku-yen noma e-euro. I-dynamism yezomnotho yase-Asia ngekusasa elibonakalayo iphakamisa ukuthi okudingekayo wushintsho lwesu esikhundleni soshintsho lweqhinga ekwakhiweni kweziqiwi. Ukushoda okukhulu nokungasimami okwenziwa yi-U.S. kubukela phansi ‘izinga likawoyela’ ebelilokhu liwumgogodla we-dollar kanye ne-Washington iminyaka engaphezu kwamashumi amathathu. Ukuthembela kudola ngokuhweba kwamandla kuzolimaza abakhiqizi base-Asia nabathengi ngokufanayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Imakethe kawoyela yase-Asia ehweba ngama-euro aseYurophu. Manje ngokuqinisekile lokho kuyiresiphi enhle yomhlaba oxubile.
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