Njengoko iNkulumbuso yangoku yaseIndiya uManmohan Singh ebeka emngciphekweni ulawulo lwakhe kwilinge lokujongela phantsi inkcaso enkulu yoluntu yokungena kwisivumelwano samandla enyukliya ne-United States, ekhohliswa njengesivumelwano "sembali" esiya kukhulula uqoqosho lwaseIndiya kwaye sinyuse umgangatho walo wehlabathi, iJapan. Ugqaliselo luvavanya ishumi leminyaka le-India-Pakistan liqhuba ukulungiselela inzuzo kwi-sweepstakes yenyukliya yase-Asia. NKSK
"Thina baseMelika siphila phakathi kwamageza. Amageza alawula imicimbi yethu egameni locwangco nokhuseleko. Igeza eliyintloko libanga izibizo zokuba ngunjengele, umphathi-mkhosi, umongameli, isazinzulu, umlawuli, unobhala welizwe, nkqu nomongameli. . . . umhla nezolo, amageza aqhubeka nokuhamba ngendlela engaxengaxengiyo yokuphambana: iintshukumo eziziingqikelelo, ziqhelekile, kangangokuba zikhangeleka ngathi zizenzo zesiqhelo zamadoda aqhelekileyo, ingekuko ukunyanzelwa yinyambalala kwabantu abatyekele ekufeni ngokupheleleyo. ngobubele, amageza athathele kuwo ukuba asikhokele ngokuthe ngcembe ukuya kweso senzo sokugqibela sobudenge esiya konakalisa ubuso bomhlaba.
Lewis Mumford (1946), ekuphenduleni ibhombu yeathom yaseMelika yaseHiroshima naseNagasaki kunye nokubhengezwa kovavanyo olongezelelweyo lwezixhobo zenyukliya.
Iminyaka elishumi yovavanyo lwezixhobo zenyukliya kaMeyi 1998 zaseIndiya nasePakistan zathi cwaka kuwo omabini la mazwe. Akukho misitho yaseburhulumenteni eyenza imisitho yokukhumbula uvavanyo, ngelixa imisitho yoluntu ibimbalwa kwaye ibingafumani nkxaso ingako. I-Press Information Bureau yaseIndiya yakhupha ingxelo ngoko yakubiza ngokuba โluSuku LweSizwe Lobugcisa,โ ikhumbula uMeyi 11, 1998, โnjengexesha elicacileyo lokukhula kobuchule bobugcisa,โ kodwa ingakhankanyi nto ngovavanyo lwenyukliya.[1] Umphathiswa wemicimbi yezangaphandle ePakistan ukhuphe isiteyitimenti esifutshane sokuphawula isikhumbuzo, ebabiza ngokuba "lusuku lwembali kukhangelo lwesizwe lokhuseleko." [2] Yayisikhalo esikude kulonwabo lwamazwe omabini kunye nochulumanco loluntu ngexesha iimvavanyo.
Eli nqaku liphonononga uphuhliso olunxulumene nezixhobo zenyukliya kumazantsi eAsia ukusukela ngo-1998. imfazwe. Sichaza uphuhliso kulwakhiwo lomyalelo wezixhobo zenyukliya, uvavanyo kunye nokuthunyelwa kwemijukujelwa ukuba iphathe ezi zixhobo, kunye nemeko yangoku yokuveliswa kwezinto ezidubulayo (i-plutonium kunye ne-uranium etyetyisiweyo) yezixhobo zenyukliya.
Ukwala iNyukliya
Olunye uphawu olumangalisayo lweminyaka ukusukela kuvavanyo lwenyukliya lukaMeyi 1998 kukukhula konxibelelwano phakathi kweenyaniso zenyukliya kunye nenkqubo yoxolo eqhubekayo yala mazwe mabini. Iinkokeli zazo zombini ezi zizwe ziziphatha ngokungathi le bhombu ziyikhulisayo ayiphumeleli kwinkqubo yoxolo ezithi ziqhubela phambili, nangona imigaqo yezixhobo zenyukliya eziyikhuthazayo ekhaya ijolise ekutshabalaliseni elinye ilizwe.
Umkhwa waqala kwintlanganiso kaFebruwari 1999 eLahore phakathi kwenkulumbuso yaseIndiya uAB Vajpayee kunye nenkulumbuso yasePakistan uNawaz Sharif. Ngelixa iSibhengezo saseLahore sathembisa "amanyathelo akhawulezileyo okunciphisa umngcipheko wokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ngengozi okanye ngokungagunyaziswanga" kunye "namanyathelo okwakha ukuzithemba kwinyukliya kunye nemimandla eqhelekileyo, ejolise ekuthinteleni ungquzulwano," izibophelelo zokwenene ngala mazwe mabini zibaliwe. kumanyathelo angafihlisiyo kakhulu (Mian and Ramana 1999). Iingxoxo ezalandelayo azizange ziqhubele phambili kwaye zanikezela ngamanyathelo awayengabalulekanga ebusweni beengxaki zenyukliya amazwe amabini aye ahamba kuwo kunye nogqatso lwezixhobo phakathi kwabo (uMian et al. 2001; uMian, Nayyar noRamana 2004).
Ukuqhubela phambili kokungafuni ukulwa nebhombu kutyhilwe mva nje kwintlanganiso kaMeyi ka-2008 yabaphathiswa belizwe laseIndiya kunye nePikistan e-Islamabad. Isiteyitimenti sabo esidibeneyo sithe "iingxoxo bezibanjwe kumoya wobuhlobo nokwakhayo" kwaye "bagqibe kwelokuba baqhubele phambili inkqubo yoxolo kunye nokugcina umfutho wayo." [3] Abaphathiswa baphawule "iqela lezinto ezibalulekileyo ezifezekisiweyo," kubandakanya imemorandam yokuqonda ukuvumela ukuhamba emoyeni ngakumbi phakathi kwamazwe amabini, isivumelwano sokuba iilori ziwele kumda we-Wagah-Attari, kunye nesivumelwano sokuvumela ibhasi yaseDelhi-Lahore ukuba yenze uhambo olunye olongezelelweyo lweveki. Isivumelwano sika-2007 "sokuNcitshiswa koMngcipheko kwiiNgozi eziNxulumene neZixhobo zeNyukliya" senza kuphela indawo yesine kuluhlu lweempumelelo.
Kodwa oku kulindelwe. Phantse iminyaka eli-10 emva kokuba iingxoxo zenyukliya ziqalisiwe, konke okukhoyo ukubonisa sisivumelwano sokwazisana malunga novavanyo lwemijukujelwa kunye nomnxeba wenyukliya xa kukho iingozi. Oku kuphakamisa ukusilela kwentelekelelo kunye nentando yezopolitiko ukuzibandakanya ngokunzulu nengozi yenyukliya. Inkqubo yoxolo ayibonakali ukuba iyaqaphela ukuba ukususela kwi-1998, kukho imfazwe kunye nengxaki enkulu yomkhosi, zombini ebonisa izisongelo zenyukliya (uRamana noMian 2003).
Ukukhanyelwa kweNyukliya eMzantsi Asia akulophawu lokungakhathaleli, okanye ukungakhathali xa ujongene nengxaki enkulu. Kukumfamekisa ngabom ukuchasana phakathi kwelizwi nesenzo. IPakistan kunye neIndiya zithetha ngoxolo ngelixa zigalela izixhobo ezinqabileyo ekuphuhliseni izixhobo zabo zenyukliya, iziseko zophuhliso kunye nokuzisebenzisa, kunye neemfundiso ezijolise ekulweni imfazwe yenyukliya. Njengoko la mazwe mabini abeka isiseko sobugcisa nesentlangano kwinto eyayibhalwe ngokufanelekileyo ngexesha lemfazwe ebandayo yamandla amakhulu njengeMutually Assured Destruction (MAD), ingxelo ehlangeneyo yabaphathiswa bamazwe angaphandle inokulawula kuphela ukuvumelana ukuba โAmaqela eNgcali kwiNyukliya kunye neeCBM eziqhelekileyo [ Amanyathelo okwakha ukuzithemba] kufuneka athathele ingqalelo izindululo ezikhoyo nezongezelelekileyo ngamacala omabini ngenjongo yokuphuhlisa amanyathelo okwakha ukuzithemba ngakumbi kwiinkalo zenyukliya neziqhelekileyo."
Ugqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya luyinxalenye yolwakhiwo olukhulu lomkhosi ukusukela kwiimvavanyo. Ngokuchaseneyo namabango abaxhasi bezixhobo zenyukliya okuba ukwakha izixhobo zenyukliya kunciphisa inkcitho yasemkhosini eqhelekileyo, [4] amanani okwenene kuwo omabini la mazwe abonisa ukonyuka okubalulekileyo nokungaguquguqukiyo (bona itheyibhile 1). Kuwo omabini la mazwe, inkcitho kwiinkqubo zezixhobo zenyukliya isasazwa kuwo wonke amasebe kwaye ayichazwa esidlangalaleni.
Itheyibhile 1: Inkcitho yoMkhosi eIndiya nasePakistan, i-1998-2005 (Imali yeNgingqi, amaxabiso angoku kwiKhalenda yeminyaka).
Ngenxa yokungabi namandla okuzakhela izixhobo eziphambili zezixhobo zesiqhelo, la mazwe mabini atyala imali eninzi ekuthengeni izixhobo ezivela kumazwe ahlukeneyo. Uluhlu lwesi-2 lubonisa isixa-mali esichithwe yi-Indiya nePakistan phakathi kuka-1998 no-2006. Kuninzi okuseza kwenziwa. Ingxelo yeNkonzo yoPhando yeKhomishini kaSeptemba ka-2007 yase-US yaphawula ukuba ngo-2006, iPakistan yabekwa kwindawo yokuqala kumazwe ehlabathi lesithathu ngokwexabiso lezivumelwano zokuthengwa kwezixhobo, emva kokutyikitya izivumelwano ezinjalo ezixabisa i-5.1 yebhiliyoni yeedola. I-Indiya ibekwe kwindawo yesibini ngezivumelwano zokuthengwa kwezixhobo ze-$3.5-bhiliyoni (Grimmett 2007).
Itheyibhile 2: Ukungeniswa kweArms yaseIndiya neyasePakistan, ngo-1998-2006 (ngezigidi zeedola zase-US ngamaXabiso aQoqoyo ka-1990)
Amanqanaba aphezulu enkcitho yempi kunye nokuthengwa kweengalo zihamba kunye nentlupheko kunye nentlupheko exhaphakileyo kumazwe omabini, kunye nokuthembela okuqhubekayo, ngakumbi ePakistan, kuncedo lophuhliso lwamazwe ngamazwe ukunceda ukubonelela ngeenkonzo ezisisiseko ezifana nezempilo kunye nemfundo.
Ukuwela imida yeNyukliya
Abaxhasi bezixhobo zenyukliya bebesoloko bethembisa ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya ziya kuthintela imfazwe, ukuba aziyi kuzisa uxolo. Ingxoxo elula yayikukuba ukoyika ukutshabalaliswa zizixhobo zenyukliya zelinye icala, akukho lizwe liya kuba semngciphekweni wemfazwe. Kwisithuba esingangonyaka wovavanyo, nangona kunjalo, iIndiya nePakistan zaya emfazweni kummandla waseKargil eKashmir. Nangona imimandla yelizwe yayinqongophele, le mfazwe yasuba imiphefumlo engamawaka aliqela.
Uqhankqalazo lwasemoyeni lwenziwa okokuqala ukusukela kwimfazwe yowe-1971. Izixhobo zenyukliya zisebenzele ukukhuthaza amagosa aphezulu aseIndiya nasePakistani ukuba akhuphe izoyikiso zenyukliya; ngokubala enye, ubuncinane 13 izoyikiso zenyukliya ezingathanga ngqo nezithe ngqo zenziwe (Bidwai and Vanaik 1999, vii). Le ngxaki ayizange isonjululwe zizisongelo zenyukliya okanye ngonxibelelwano. IPakistan yafuna ungenelelo lwaseMelika ukumisa umlo kunye nokunceda ukusombulula ingxabano yaseKashmir. UNdunankulu uNawaz Sharif uchazwa ngokuba "unqwenela" kwizibheno zakhe zoncedo kwaye wabhabha waya eWashington ukudibana nomongameli wase-US uBill Clinton (Riedel 2002). UClinton wala ukubandakanyeka ngaphandle kokuba iPakistan irhoxise imikhosi yayo eKargil ngaphandle kwemiqathango, kwaye wajongana noSharif ngolwazi lokuba umkhosi wasePakistan uhlanganise imijukujelwa yenyukliya. U-Sharif kuthiwa wabonakala "othukile" xa ejongene nale nyaniso, kwaye wathi i-India inokwenza okufanayo, kodwa wakhanyela ukuba unike umyalelo wokuba kubanjwe imijukujelwa yasePakistan. Ukusilela ukufumana inkxaso evela e-US ukuze kupheliswe umlo, iPakistan yavuma ukurhoxa kwangoko.
Uhlaselo lomkhosi kaDisemba 2001 kwisakhiwo sepalamente eDelhi lwabangela enye ingxaki. Amajoni angaphezu kwesiqingatha sesigidi, malunga nesibini kwisithathu kuwo engamaIndiya, afuduselwa kumda wePakistan. Amagosa aphezulu kunye nabezopolitiko kuwo omabini la mazwe baye basebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya izihlandlo ezininzi. UNdunankulu uVajpayee walumkisa: "akukho sixhobo esiya kugcinwa ekuzikhuseleni. Nasiphi na isixhobo esikhoyo, siya kusetyenziswa kungakhathaliseki ukuba yingozi kangakanani intshaba "(Shukla 2002). Abaninzi ehlabathini lonke babesoyika okona kubi.
Iimfazwe zomkhosi zika-1999 kunye no-2001-02 zinika izifundo ezibalulekileyo. Isifundo sokuqala sesokuba, ukuba nezixhobo zenyukliya zikufuphi, iinkokeli zaseIndiya nasePakistan zikulungele ukuzisebenzisa ukwenza izoyikiso ngexesha lobunzima ukuzama ukunyanzela isisombululo ngokwemiqathango yazo kunye nokuphembelela ingqwalaselo yamazwe ngamazwe kunye nokungenelela. Le yindlela yokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ngaphandle kokuzidubula. Njengoko uDaniel Ellsberg wabonisa, "umpu usetyenziswa xa ukhomba entloko yomntu ekudibaneni ngokuthe ngqo, nokuba i-trigger ikhutshwe okanye ayitsalwanga" (Ellsberg 1981).
UKargil uphinde wabonisa ukuba izixhobo zenyukliya zitshintshile ukubala komngcipheko kubaphathi kunye nabenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo. U-Benazir Bhutto ongasekhoyo wabonisa ukuba kwi-1996, iinjengele zasePakistan ziye zabonisa izicwangciso zendlela yokusebenza ye-Kargil, engazange ivume (Anonymous 2000). Kubonakala ngathi iimvavanyo zika-1998 zaqinisekisa iinkokeli zasePakistan ukuba umsebenzi unokuba nokwenzeka ngezixhobo zenyukliya ukuze kuthintelwe nasiphi na isigqibo esinokuba sisigqibo saseIndiya. Imfazwe yaseKargil yabonwa ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo ziinkokeli zamazwe amabini. KwiPakistan, iKargil imele ubungqina bokuba izixhobo zayo zenyukliya ziyakuthintela iIndiya ekuqaliseni uhlaselo olukhulu lomkhosi. E-Indiya, uKargil wayethetha ukuba kuya kufuneka afune iindlela zokulwa imfazwe elinganiselweyo engayi kukhokelela ekusetyenzisweni kwezixhobo zenyukliya ekugqibeleni. Nangona ingazange ikhule ibe yimfazwe, izinto ezininzi zenza ukuba intlekele ka-2001-02 ibe ngumqondiso onobungozi kwikamva kunemfazwe yaseKargil. Ngokungafaniyo neKargil, apho iPakistan yalahleka ngokucacileyo, ngakumbi kwezopolitiko, omabini amacala athi uloyiso ngo-2002. Abanye eIndiya babona isithembiso sikaMongameli uPervez Musharraf sokuba uya kulawula imibutho yomkhosi esekelwe ePakistan njengobungqina bokuba i-Indian "coercive diplomacy" yasebenza nangona iPakistan inezixhobo zenyukliya. . EPakistan, abanye babona izixhobo zenyukliya zithintele iIndiya ekuweleni umda, nangona imikhosi yayo emininzi kunye nezoyikiso zokuhlasela iinkampu zomkhosi ePakistan. Ukuba ungquzulwano olukhulu lomkhosi kunye nezixhobo ezinamandla zenyukliya zibonwa ngamacala omabini njengoloyiso kwandisa amathuba okuba kwenzeke iziganeko ezifanayo kwixesha elizayo.
Ngelixa iinkokeli zasePakistan zigxininisa ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya ngo-1999 kunye no-2001-02, iinkokeli zaseIndiya zenze inqaku lokukhanyela indima kwezo zoyikiso. Inkulumbuso uVajpayee ubanga ukuba ingxaki ka-2001-02 ibonise ukuba i-Indiya ibize ngempumelelo i-bluff yenyukliya yasePakistan (Vanaik 2002). UGeneral VP Malik, owayesakuba yintloko yabasebenzi basemkhosini, wathi izixhobo zenyukliya azinamsebenzi kwaye azizange zidlale indima ethintelayo ngexesha lemfazwe yaseKargil okanye intlekele ka-2002. Esi sikhundla sichazwe ngamanye amagosa aphezulu asemkhosini waseNdiya (Mehta 2003). Ukuphendula kwisicwangciso sePakistan sokusebenzisa izoyikiso zenyukliya ukuvuselela ukungenelela kwamanye amazwe, ngo-2004 umkhosi waseIndiya wamkela imfundiso entsha neyingozi yemfazwe ebizwa ngokuba yi "Cold Start" - enenjongo yokunika iIndiya amandla "okutshintsha ukusuka ekukhuseleni ukuya kwimisebenzi ehlaselayo kwasekuqaleni. kungquzulwano, kuxhomekeke kwinto eyothusayo kwaye inganiki iPakistan naliphi na ixesha lokuzisa i-diplomatic leverages kumdlalo we-vis-a-vis India" (Pant 2007). Imisebenzi ekhubekisayo iya kubandakanya uhlaselo olukhawulezayo, oluqinisekileyo ngaphaya komda kunye nePakistan kwaye, abanye abahlalutyi bayaxoxa, "ukuzisa ukupheliswa kwemfazwe okuncomekayo, imeko oyithandayo kukusika iPakistan ibe mbini phakathi kwayo" (Ahmed 2004). Ugwayimbo lwenzelwe ukuba lukhawuleze kwaye lube nesigqibo kangangokuba "luya kulungiselela impindezelo yenyukliya" (IE 2006).
I-Indiya iqhube uvavanyo lweli qhinga ngoMeyi 2006 kunye nesenzo esikhulu somkhosi kufuphi nomda wePakistan (ToI 2006). I sange shakti (amandla adibeneyo) umthambo udibanise iinqwelomoya zogwayimbo, iitanki, kunye namajoni angaphezu kwama-40,000 asuka kwiSecond Strike Corps kumdlalo wemfazwe nenjongo yawo umphathi waseIndiya achaze โnjengokuvavanya imfundiso yethu yemfazwe ka-2004 ukuqhawula amathambo isizwe ngempumelelo nangexesha elifutshane kunokwenzeka" (DN 2006). Jikelele uDaulat Shekhawat, umlawuli wezidumbu wachaza ukuba "Sikholelwa ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba kukho indawo yesiteleka esikhawulezayo nakwimeko yokuhlaselwa kwenyukliya, kwaye kukuqinisekisa le mfundiso esiyiqhube lo msebenzi" (IANS 2006).
Ingozi yomgaqo-nkqubo onjalo yeyokuba iinjengele zasePakistan zinokuthatha imigaqo-nkqubo ebandakanya ukusebenzisa izixhobo zabo zenyukliya kwangethuba kungquzulwano, kunokuba baphulukane nazo zombini izixhobo kunye nemfazwe. Kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo, kwicala labo, abacwangcisi bemikhosi yasePakistan baye babeka esidlangalaleni "imigca ebomvu" enokuthi ibangele ukusebenzisa kwabo izixhobo zenyukliya. Jikelele Khalid Kidwai, Pakistani Army Strategic Plans Division umlawuli, uye wachaza ukuba Pakistan unokunyanzelwa ukuba asebenzise izixhobo zenyukliya ukuba: (1) I-Indiya ihlasela iPakistan kwaye ithatha indawo enkulu yommandla wayo; (2) I-Indiya itshabalalisa inxalenye enkulu yemikhosi exhobileyo yasePakistan; (3) I-Indiya ibeka umqobo wezoqoqosho okanye imida ukufikelela kumanzi omlambo; okanye (4) I-Indiya idala ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko okanye ukuguqulwa okukhulu kwangaphakathi ePakistan (uMartellini noCotta-Ramusino 2002).
Izicwangciso ezimbini zomkhosi ezithweleyo zinokuba yintlekele ukuba zidibana kwindawo yedabi. Iinjengele zaseIndiya zisenokuba nethemba, kwaye zithembise iinkokeli zazo, uhlaselo oluqinisekileyo kodwa olulinganiselweyo olungayi kuxhokonxa ukusebenzisa kwePakistan izixhobo zenyukliya.[5] Kodwa kuyo nayiphi na inkathazo, ukunyuka ngokungalindelekanga okanye ngabom kuhlala kuyingozi. Imida yeNyukliya inokugqithwa ngaphandle kokuba nabani na onenjongo eneneni, ngempazamo, ukuba elinye icala lingaqondi ukuba elinye liceba ntoni kwaye lenzani, okanye kubushushu balo mzuzu. Imfazwe yaseKargil inika imizekelo. EPakistan, uSharif wayengazi ukuba iinjengele zakhe zazisenza ntoni. E-Indiya, inkxalabo malunga nokunyuka kwakhokelela ekucingeni ukuba kukho imfuneko yokulawula njengoko iKomiti yeKhabhinethi yezoKhuseleko (CCS) yacebisa ngokuchasene nokusebenzisa amandla omoya, isoyika ukuba iya kuwandisa umda wongquzulwano, kuphela ukuphinda kuqwalaselwe isigqibo sayo kwaye inike imvume yokuya phambili. emva kweveki yokulwa komhlaba akubanga nanzuzo (Ganguly and Hagerty 2005, 154).
UCwangciso lokutshatyalaliswa kweMisa
Onke amazwe axhobe ngenyukliya afunda ngokukhawuleza ukuba ukuba nebhombu kunye nokufuna ukugrogrisa ngokuyisebenzisa akwanelanga. Isebenza kuphela njengesoyikiso xa umchasi ekholelwa ukuba ingasetyenziswa njengoko bekucetyiwe. Kufuneka ithathe kuzo zonke iimpawu zesixhobo. Ukususela ngowe-1998, i-Indiya nePakistan ziye zaseka imibutho esesikweni yokucwangcisa nokulawula ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya.
Indiya
Kwiinyanga ezithile emva kokuba eyalele uvavanyo lwenyukliya, urhulumente we-Bharatiya Janata Party yaseIndiya waseka iBhunga leSizwe loKhuseleko, eliquka iBhodi yeeNgcebiso ngoKhuseleko lweSizwe (NSAB).[6] Ngo-Agasti 1999, i-NSAB yakhupha ingxelo yayo eyilwayo malunga nemfundiso yenyukliya (DND) yaseIndiya (NSAB 1999). NgoJanuwari 2003, ikomiti yekhabhinethi karhulumente wase-Indiya kukhuseleko lwesizwe yapapasha ingxelo emfutshane esemthethweni ngemfundiso yenyukliya (PMO 2003). Ubudlelwane phakathi kwaba babini buye bacaciswa ngumququzeleli wokuqala we-NSAB, owaxoxa ukuba uxwebhu lwamva lubonisa ukuba "ikomiti yekhabhinethi yokhuseleko lwesizwe ... yamkele imfundiso yenyukliya esayilwayo" (Subrahmanyam 2003). I-DND ivakalisa ukuma kwamazwe ezixhobo zenyukliya. Yabhengeza: "I-India iya kulandela imfundiso yothintelo lwenyukliya oluthembekileyo." Ngokwe-DND, olu sukelo lufuna:
(1) imikhosi yenyukliya eyaneleyo, enokusindeka kwaye ilungiselelwe ukusebenza;
(2)umyalelo owomeleleyo kunye nenkqubo yolawulo;
(3) ubukrelekrele obusebenzayo kunye namandla okulumkisa kwangethuba;
(4) ucwangciso noqeqesho lwemisebenzi yenyukliya; kwaye
(5) intando yokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya.
Ezi zixhobo zenyukliya ziza kuthunyelwa kwi-triad yezithuthi zokuhambisa "inqwelomoya, imijukujelwa eshukumayo esekwe emhlabeni kunye nee-asethi eziselwandle" ezilungiselelwe "ukuphindezela ukohlwaya" ukuze "zenze umonakalo ongamkelekanga kumhlaseli." I-DND ibize "amandla aqinisekisiweyo okutshintsha ukusuka kwi-peactime deployment ukuya kumandla anokuqeshwa ngokupheleleyo ngexesha elifutshane." Ikomkhulu lenkonzo exhobileyo lathi emva koko lanikwa ingxelo yokuba "liyila izikimu ezineenkcukacha zokungenisa iintlobo ngeentlobo zezixhobo zenyukliya kunye nezixhobo ezincedisayo kunye nenkxaso kwimiyalelo yazo yedabi. . . . [kunye] nomyalelo ofanelekileyo kunye nezikhokelo zolawulo" (Karnad 2002) , 108).
Ukwamkela kukarhulumente waseIndiya imfundiso yothintelo lwenyukliya yahluke kakhulu kwizikhundla zoorhulumente bangaphambili. Kutsha nje ngo-1995, kwiNkundla yeHlabathi yezoBulungisa ("iNkundla yeHlabathi"), ummeli waseIndiya wachaza uthintelo lwenyukliya "njengezothe kwiimvakalelo zomntu kuba oko kuthetha ukuba ilizwe xa lifuneka ukuba likhusele ubukho balo liya kwenza ngokungakhathali ngokungenalusini. iziphumo kubantu bayo kunye nabachasayo."
Ngaphandle kweengxaki ezisisiseko zobuchule kunye nezokuziphatha ngokunqanda, uluvo lokuba kukho okanye kunokubakho "isithintelo esincinci" esizinzileyo asinasihlahla. Akwanelanga ukubeka uphawu "lumkele izixhobo zenyukliya" ukuze wonke umntu alufunde kwaye athathele ingqalelo. Imbali yeNyukliya icebisa ukuba oko kubonakala kwamkelekile kobunye ubunkokeli kunokubonakala kungenakunyamezeleka kwenye kwaye kunokuxhomekeka kwiimeko. Kwingxelo echazayo, uNjengele Thomas Power, intloko ye-US Strategic Air Command, ngowe-1960 wathi "Oyena usondeleyo kwindoda enye eyazi ukuba yintoni eyona nto incinci yokuthintela iya kuba [yinkokeli yaseSoviet] uMnu. Khrushchev, kwaye ngokunyanisekileyo andicingi ukuba uyazi ukusuka kwiveki enye ukuya kwenye. Unokukwazi ukufumana isohlwayo kwiveki ezayo kunokuba afuna ukuyifumana namhlanje. Ngoko ke isithintelo asiyiyo ikhonkrithi okanye isixa esilinganiselweyo "(Schwartz 1998).
Sikuyekela kumfundi ukuba aqwalasele indlela, ukuba unikwe uxanduva, ukumisela inani lezixeko angathanda ukuzitshabalalisa ukuze avelise impembelelo ephazamisayo kubunkokeli belinye ilizwe. Ngaba baya kukubona kwanele ukusongela ngokutshabalalisa i-Islamabad, iRawalpindi, iKarachi, iLahore, neFaisalabad ukuba iinjengele zasePakistan zithintelwe? Kwaye, ngokuchaseneyo, zingaphi izixeko zaseIndiya abangathanda ukuzibona zitshatyalalisiwe ngaphambi kokuba zithintelwe - ngaba ukubeka emngciphekweni ukutshatyalaliswa kweDelhi, iMumbai, iKolkata, iChennai, kunye neBangalore inokwanela? Ngaphandle kwezicwangciso zikaRhulumente, akukho themba lokukhusela uluntu olusebenzayo ngokuchasene nohlaselo lwenyukliya olunjalo (Rajaraman, Mian and Nayyar 2004). Itheyibhile yesi-3 inika uqikelelo lwengozi ezinokuthi zibe nesiphumo sohlaselo lwenyukliya ngesixhobo esinye esilingana neHiroshima kwidolophu nganye kwezi (McKinzie et al. 2001).
ITheyibhile 3: Uqikelelo lwabaNxwelerhekileyo kwiNyukliya kwiziXeko eziMakhulu zaseIndiya nasePakistan.
Ukuqonda ukuba igama elithi "ubuncinci" linentsingiselo encinci okanye ayinantsingiselo kumxholo wothintelo lwenyukliya, ayimangalisi into yokuba amaxwebhu emfundiso yenyukliya yaseIndiya anganikeli inani kwikota, ubuncinane. Kananjalo uninzi lweengcali zenyukliya okanye abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo.[7] Ukuba umntu ebenokuhamba ngamanqaku oluntu ngabanye ababhali bemfundiso, i-arsenal ecwangcisiweyo inokubala amakhulu ezixhobo zenyukliya, kwaye ibandakanye iindidi ezahlukeneyo. Uthethathethwano kwisivumelwano senyukliya sase-Indo-US lucebisa ukuba abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo baseIndiya babonakala benomdla wokuba nenketho yokwakha isitokhwe sezixhobo zenyukliya ukuze kuvumeleke isixhobo esikhulu kangaka (Mian et al. 2006).
Imfundiso yenyukliya yaseIndiya iqinisekisa ukuzibophelela ekungasetyenziswani kokuqala (NFU) kwezixhobo zenyukliya kungquzulwano. Uninzi lubonisa ukuba obu bubungqina bokuba iIndiya ayifuni kuhlasela nabani na ngezixhobo zayo zenyukliya, kwaye izixhobo zayo zenzelwe ukhuselo. Nangona kunjalo, oku kunokuba nzima ukukuphumeza kwintlekele kunokuba abalandeli bayo bebange kwaye basenokungabathembi abanye nangayiphi na imeko. Kungquzulwano phakathi kwamazwe amabini axhobe ngenyukliya, umgaqo-nkqubo ongqongqo we-NFU unokubandakanya ukulinda ukuba ibhombu yomnye iqhushumba phambi kokuba iphendule. Amava abonisa ukuba abaqulunqi bomgaqo-nkqubo basenokungacebi ukwenza njalo. NgoFebruwari 2000, ephendula kwizisongelo zokuhlaselwa kwenyukliya yasePakistan, uNdunankulu uVajpayee wathi, "Ukuba bacinga ukuba siya kubalinda ukuba balahle ibhomu kwaye babhekane nokutshatyalaliswa, bayaphazama" (Gardner 2000). IPakistan ithi indawo ye-NFU yaseIndiya ayithembekanga. I-ambassador yasePakistan kwiNkomfa yeZizwe eziManyeneyo malunga nokuchithwa kwezixhobo uye waxela ukuba "i-India ngokwayo ayibeki ukuthembeka 'kwi-no-first-use'. Ukuba yenze njalo, bekufanele yamkele isiqinisekiso saseTshayina 'sokuqala ukusetyenziswa' kunye nokungasebenzisi. Izixhobo zenyukliya ezichasene nezixhobo zenyukliya ezingezona zenyukliya. Oku bekuya kuthintela imfuneko yokufunyanwa kwezixhobo zenyukliya zaseIndiya "(Akram 1999). I-Indiya ibeke iimeko kumgaqo-nkqubo wayo we-NFU kwimfundiso yayo yenyukliya. Yandisa uluhlu lweemeko ezinokutsala impendulo yenyukliya ukubandakanya ukuhlaselwa ngezixhobo zekhemikhali kunye nebhayoloji (CBW). Esi silumkiso malunga nohlaselo lwe-CBW lunokuba linyathelo lokuqala lokugatya ngokupheleleyo umgaqo-nkqubo we-NFU. Ingxelo yemfundiso yenyukliya yowama-2003 ikwaquka inkcazo yemibutho esekwe ukulawula izixhobo zenyukliya kunye nemijukujelwa. Aba bebeza kuba phantsi koluhlu olunemigangatho emibini olubizwa ngokuba yiNuclear Command Authority (NCA), nequka ibhunga lezopolitiko, usihlalo wayo yinkulumbuso, kunye nesigqeba esilawulayo, umcebisi wezokhuseleko kuzwelonke wenkulumbuso. Ibhunga lezopolitiko lilo lodwa iqumrhu elikwaziyo ukugunyazisa ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya. Nangona kunjalo, "amalungiselelo eenye iintambo zomyalelo wokuziphindezela kuqhankqalazo lwenyukliya kuzo zonke iimeko" nazo zikhankanyiwe; oko kukuthi, ilindele iimeko ezinokuvela apho umntu ongenguye inkulumbuso anokufuneka, kwaye abe nako, ukuyalela ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya.
Phakistan
Umbutho onoxanduva lokuqulunqa umgaqo-nkqubo kunye nokusebenzisa ulawulo kuphuhliso kunye nokusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya zasePakistan nguGunyaziwe woMyalelo weSizwe (NCA). Yayilwa ngoFebruwari 2000, iNCA inamacandelo amathathu: iKomiti yoLawulo lweNgqesho (ECC), iKomiti yoLawulo loPhuhliso (DCC) kunye neCandelo leziCwangciso zoBuchule (SPD). Abameli bomkhosi ngesininzi kubo bonke. Igunya lenzelwe ukuba lichotshelwe yinkulumbuso njengentloko karhulumente. Kodwa, ngoDisemba ka-2007, u-Musharraf wakhupha ummiselo we-NCA, owawunika i-inshorensi esemthethweni kumzimba, wawususa kuwo nawuphi na umngeni osemthethweni, wamenza (njengomongameli) usihlalo. Igunya "linomyalelo opheleleyo kunye nolawulo lophando, uphuhliso, ukuveliswa kunye nokusetyenziswa kweteknoloji yenyukliya kunye ne-space kunye , , , ukhuseleko kunye nokhuseleko lwabo bonke abasebenzi, izibonelelo, ulwazi, ufakelo okanye imibutho."[8] I-ECC iquka intloko. karhulumente kwaye ibandakanya abaphathiswa bekhabhinethi bemicimbi yangaphandle, ezokhuselo nezangaphakathi; usihlalo wekomiti edibeneyo yeenkosi zabasebenzi (CJCSC); iintloko zenkonzo yasemkhosini; umlawuli-jikelele weSPD (igosa eliphezulu lomkhosi), elisebenza njengonobhala; nabacebisi bobugcisa. Le komiti kucingelwa ukuba inikwe ityala lokwenza umgaqo-nkqubo wezixhobo zenyukliya, kubandakanywa ukuqulunqwa komgaqo-nkqubo ngesigqibo sokusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya. Iimeko zePakistan zokusebenzisa izixhobo zayo zenyukliya zichazwe ngasentla.
I-DCC ilawula izixhobo zenyukliya kunye nophuhliso lweenkqubo zezixhobo zenyukliya. Inamalungu afanayo omkhosi nobugcisa njengekomiti yezengqesho, kodwa ayinabo abaphathiswa bekhabhinethi abamele amanye amacandelo karhulumente. I-DCC iphethwe yintloko karhulumente kwaye iquka i-CJCSC (njengosekela sihlalo wayo), iintloko zenkonzo yomkhosi, umlawuli-jikelele weSPD kunye nabameli bophando lwezixhobo, uphuhliso kunye nemibutho yokuvelisa. Le mibutho ibandakanya i-laboratory yophando ye-AQ Khan e-Kahuta, iKhomishoni yaMandla e-Atomic yasePakistan, kunye neKhomishini yeSizwe yobuNjineli kunye neNzululwazi (ejongene nophuhliso lwezixhobo).
I-SPD yasekwa kwikomkhulu leenkonzo ezidityanelweyo phantsi kwe-CJCSC kwaye ikhokelwa ligosa eliphezulu lomkhosi (elisaqhubeleka ukuyikhokela emva kokuthatha umhlala-phantsi). Inoxanduva lokucwangcisa kunye nokulungelelanisa kwaye, ngokukodwa, ukuseka amanqanaba asezantsi omyalelo kunye nenkqubo yokulawula kunye neziseko zayo eziphathekayo.
Isityhilelo sika-2003 sokuba ngelixa wayeyintloko yenkqubo yokutyebisa i-uranium, u-AQ Khan wayethengisa kunye nokwabelana ngolwazi lobugcisa kunye nolwazi lwezixhobo kunye ne-Iran, iLibya, iNorth Korea, kwaye mhlawumbi abanye baye baphakamisa imibuzo ebalulekileyo malunga nokulawula kwePakistan kwi-complex yayo yenyukliya. I-US ibinceda iPakistan ukukhusela izixhobo zayo zenyukliya. Oku kuye kwabandakanya ukubonelela ngenkxaso nezixhobo ezixabisa malunga ne-100 lezigidi zeedola ukusukela nge-11 Septemba, 2001, kubandakanywa izixhobo zokubona izinto ezingenayo neenkqubo ze-ID, kunye nezixhobo zokubona inyukliya.
Oomatshini boKutshabalalisa ngobuninzi
Olona phawu lubonakalayo lwesakhono esikhulayo sezakhiwo zenyukliya ezifanelekileyo kuvavanyo oluthe rhoqo lweentlobo ngeentlobo zemijukujelwa ekwaziyo ukusebenza ngenyukliya. Olunye kolu vavanyo ngoku lwenziwa ziiyunithi zomkhosi endaweni yezazinzulu kunye neenjineli, kwaye kuthetha ukuba imijukujelwa ethile isasazwe njengeenkqubo zomkhosi ezinomyalelo wokulindisa kunye nezakhiwo zolawulo. I-Indiya iye yaphuhlisa okanye yafumana amacandelo enkqubo yokulumkisa kwangaphambili kunye ne-anti-ballistic missile (ABM) inkqubo yokukhusela (Ramana, Rajaraman kunye ne-Mian 2004).
Ukuphuhliswa kwemijukujelwa kuthwala umngcipheko omkhulu eMzantsi Asia. IJografi yenza amaxesha okubhabha okujulwa kwe-ballistic ukusuka eIndiya okanye ePakistan ukuya kwelinye izixeko zelizwe abe mafutshane kangangemizuzu emihlanu kwaye amaxesha okulumkisa anokuba mafutshane (Mian, Rajaraman, and Ramana 2003). Bekungayi kubakho xesha kwaphela lokuba abenzi bezigqibo bajonge izibakala, baphonononge imeko, badibane, okanye bavavanye iinketho. Kuya kubakho uxinzelelo lokufudukela kwimpendulo ecwangcisiweyo, echazwe kwangaphambili. Ukuba impendulo enjalo ibandakanya ukuqaliswa kwisilumkiso, ukuma okunokuthi kuxhaswe emkhosini (Ramana 2003), kuya kubakho ithuba elibonakalayo lemfazwe yenyukliya ngengozi.
Indiya
I-Indiya iye yaphuhlisa imijukujelwa esekwe emhlabeni kunye nemijukujelwa enokuthi igxothwe elwandle, kubandakanywa neenqanawa ezintywilayo. Ikwanazo neenqwelomoya ezikwaziyo ukuwisa iibhombu zenyukliya.
Eyona nkqubo iphambili yonikezelo lwenyukliya esekwe emhlabeni luthotho lweAgni lwemijukujelwa. Umsebenzi kwi-Agni waqala njengenxalenye yeNkqubo eDityanisiweyo yoPhuhliso lweMicimbi eKhokelwayo ngo-1983, kodwa umjukujelwa walungiswa ngokutsha ukususela kuvavanyo lwenyukliya ngowe-1998. I-Agni yokuqala yayinezixhobisi eziqinileyo nezingamanzi kwaye ayizange isetyenziswe.
Ngokulandelelana kweziganeko, imijukujelwa yokuqala ekwi-arsenal ngoku yi-Agni-2 enoluhlu lwe-2,500 km. Olu vavanyo lokuqala lomjukujelwa lwalungoAprili 1999 kwaye uvavanyo lwesibini lwalungoJanuwari 2001 (Mehta 2004). Uvavanyo lwesithathu lwenziwa ngo-Agasti 2004 ngokuthatha inxaxheba kwimikhosi exhobileyo (i-Subramanian 2005). Ngo-Oktobha 1999, i-Agni-1 "yenziwe njengeprojekthi yokuphahlazeka ... ukuvala umsantsa ophakathi kwee-Prithvi-2 (250 km) kunye ne-Agni-2 (2,500 km)" imijukujelwa. Umjukujelwa waqala ukuvavanywa ngoJanuwari 2002 kunye noluhlu lweekhilomitha ezingama-700 (uAneja noDikshit 2002). Umkhosi kunye nomkhosi womoya uyaziwa ukuba uye walwa malunga nokuba ngubani oza kulawula le mijukujelwa (Sawant 2002).
Esona sijulwayo samva nje kolu thotho yi-3,500 km-range Agni-3, eyavavanywa okokuqala ngoJuni 2006. Uvavanyo aluzange luphumelele (iNtatheli eYodwa ka-2007). Iimvavanyo ezilandelayo ngo-Aprili 2007 kunye noMeyi 2008 zabhengezwa njengempumelelo (Subramanian and Mallikarjun 2008). Amagosa oKhuseleko athi i-Agni-3 "inokutshabalalisa iithagethi kulo naliphi na ilizwe elisezantsi, empuma nakumazantsi-mpuma e-Asia" (ENS 2008). I-Agni-3 isephantsi kophuhliso kwaye iza kunikezelwa emkhosini emva kovavanyo lomsebenzisi omnye okanye ngaphezulu (Subramanian 2008).
Umkhosi wamanzi nawo uye wabeka ibango kwimijukujelwa. Umjukujelwa wokuqala ophuhliswe kumkhosi wasemanzini yiDhanush, umahluko wePrithvi umjukujelwa owawuza kugxothwa enqanaweni. Ukususela kuvavanyo lokuqala ngo-Apreli 2000, ukuqaliswa akuphumelelanga (PTI 2002). Umjukujelwa unoluhlu lwe-350 km kunye nomthwalo we-500 kg (uMbhali oMkhulu ngo-2007). Umjukujelwa wesibini womkhosi waselwandle yiSagarika, ekwabizwa ngokuba yi-K-15, enoluhlu lweekhilomitha ezingama-700. Mhlawumbi ngenxa yobunzima kunye novavanyo lokuqala lweDhanush, ukuqaliswa kweSagarika ezine zokuqala zagcinwa ziyimfihlo; kuphela uvavanyo lwesihlanu oluyimpumelelo ngoFebruwari 2008 lwabhengezwa esidlangalaleni (Subramanian 2008). Ubungakanani kunye nokuntsonkotha kwenkqubo yomjukujelwa kuye kwanceda ekuqhubeni ukwakhiwa kwemizi-mveliso yezomkhosi-mveliso edibanisa uMbutho woPhando noPhuhliso lwezoKhuselo, iilebhu zikarhulumente, icandelo likarhulumente kunye neenkampani zabucala, kunye neeyunivesithi. Iprojekthi ye-Agni-3, umzekelo, ibandakanye iifemu ezingaphezu kwama-250, iilebhu zophando ezininzi, kunye namaziko emfundo (Gilani 2007; Rediff 2008).
Phakistan
IPakistan iphuhlise iintlobo ezintathu zemijukujelwa ye-ballistic ebonwa ikwazi ukuhambisa imfazwe yenyukliya (Norris and Kristensen 2007). Ezi ziiGhaznavi, Shaheen, kunye neGhuri.
Nangona i-Ghaznavi yobude obufutshane kwathiwa ingene kwinkonzo ngo-2004, kwakungo-2006 kuphela apho kwathiwa ilungele ukusebenza. I-Shaheen enefuthe eliqinileyo iza kwiindidi ezimbini, i-Shaheen-1 emfutshane kunye ne-Shaheen-2 ephakathi. Le yokugqibela yavavanywa ngoFebruwari 23, 2007, ukuya kuluhlu lweekhilomitha ezingama-2,000. I-Ghuri ye-liquid-fueled, evela kumjukujelwa waseNyakatho Korea, yavavanywa okokuqala ngo-Epreli 1998, inyanga ngaphambi kovavanyo lwezixhobo zenyukliya. Uvavanyo lwamva nje lwe-missile yasePakistan luye lwenziwa ngamaqela ahlukeneyo e-missile yeqhinga (ngalinye lixhotyiswe uhlobo oluthile lomjukujelwa) lomyalelo womkhosi weqhinga lomkhosi kwaye zichazwa "njengemithambo yasendle." Umjukujelwa we-Ghuri we-1,300 km-uluhlu lweekhilomitha kunye ne-700 km-uluhlu lwe-Shaheen-1 zavavanywa ngumyalelo womkhosi weqhinga lomkhosi ngo-2006. AP 2).
IPakistan iye yaphuhlisa umjukujelwa ojikelezayo weekhilomitha ezingama-500, i-Babur, echazwe njenge "missile ejikelezayo ephantsi, ebambe umhlaba kunye nokuhamba okuphezulu, ukuchaneka kokuchaneka, kunye neempawu zokuphepha i-radar" (Garwood 2006). Olona vavanyo lwamva nje lwalo mjukujelwa, ngoMeyi ka-2008, lwachazwa "njengokuqinisekisa iiparamitha zoyilo lwenkqubo yezixhobo" kwaye kuthetha ukuba umjukujelwa usekwinqanaba lophuhliso (AFP 2008). IPakistan inokuthi ekugqibeleni ifune ukuxhobisa iinkwili zayo ngemijukujelwa enezixhobo zenyukliya.
Izibaso zeebhombu
Izinto ezimbini ezisisiseko ezisetyenziselwa ukwenza izixhobo zenyukliya yiplutonium kunye neuranium etyetyisiweyo. Isixhobo senyukliya esilula sesizukulwana sokuqala singenziwa malunga ne-5 kg โโyeplutonium okanye malunga nama-25 kg e-uranium etyetyisiweyo kakhulu. Uyilo lwezixhobo oluphucukileyo lusebenzisa imathiriyeli encinci. Ngexesha lovavanyo lwenyukliya, i-Indiya kwakuqikelelwa ukuba yayinezixhobo zeplutonium ezimalunga nama-300 kg, ezaneleyo malunga nezixhobo ezingama-60. Iingcali ziqikelela ukuba iPakistan ngoku ineekhilogram ezingama-550 (ezanele ngaphezu kwe-100 yezixhobo ezilula). Olu qikelelo lucinga ukuba i-Indiya isebenzise kuphela i-CIRUS kunye ne-Dhruva reactors kwi-Bhabha Atomic Research Centre complex ukuvelisa izixhobo zeplutonium. Ezi zixhobo zombane azivelisi mbane. Ngexesha lothethathethwano kunye neengxoxo zoluntu ezijikeleze isivumelwano senyukliya se-Indo-US, isebe lamandla e-atom linyanzelise ukuba kugcinwe izixhobo zenyukliya ezilithoba ukuze zisetyenziselwe ukuvelisa umbane ngaphandle kokhuseleko lwamazwe ngamazwe. Oku kuquka iirektha ezisibhozo zamanzi anzima, kunye neprototype ye-fast-breeder reactor (PFBR) eyakhiwa eKalpakkam kufutshane neChennai. Zonke zikhulu kakhulu kuneCIRUS kunye neDhruva. Ngokuzigcina ngaphandle kohlolo lwamazwe ngamazwe, i-Indiya iqinisekisa ukuba zingasetyenziselwa ukwenza izixhobo ze-plutonium.
Uphononongo lwe Iphaneli yaMazwe ngaMazwe yeMathiriyeli yeFissile, leyo thina cowrote, ibonisa ukuba ukuba kukho iuranium eyaneleyo ekhoyo ukubasa kuzo ireactor nganye yamanzi anzima inokuvelisa malunga ne-200 kg yesixhobo se-plutonium minyaka le (Mian et al. 2006). Ngokufanayo, i-PFBR inokuvelisa malunga ne-140 kg ye-plutonium yebanga lesixhobo minyaka le ukuba isebenza kwi-75 yepesenti yokusebenza kakuhle (Glaser and Ramana 2007). IPakistan ithembele kwi-uranium etyetyisiweyo kakhulu ukusuka kwisikhululo sayo sokutyebisa i-Kahuta centrifuge kuninzi lwezixhobo zayo zenyukliya ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Kuqikelelwa ukuba malunga ne-1,400 kg yesi sixhobo, ngokwaneleyo ukuba mhlawumbi izixhobo ze-60, kwaye zivelise ngokomyalelo we-100 kg ngonyaka (izixhobo ezine ezongezelelweyo ngonyaka) (ibid.). IPakistan ikwanesixhobo sokuvelisa iplutonium eKhushab esinokuvelisa malunga ne-10 kg ngonyaka (malunga nezixhobo ezibini ezinexabiso). Inokuba iqokelele isitokhwe seplutonium malunga ne-80 kg - eyaneleyo malunga nezixhobo ezili-15.
Njengempendulo kwisivumelwano senyukliya, i-NCA yasePakistan, eyayingusihlalo ka-Musharraf, yathi "Ngenxa yenyani isivumelwano [se-US-India] siza kwenza i-Indiya ivelise ubuninzi bezinto eziqhekezayo kunye nezixhobo zenyukliya kwinyukliya engakhuselekanga. kwi-reactors, i-NCA ivakalise isigqibo esiqinileyo sokuba iimfuno zethu ezithembekileyo zothintelo ziya kufezekiswa" (uSheikh 2006). Umphathiswa wangaphambili wasePakistan wangaphandle ucebise ukwakha indawo yesibini yokutyebisa i-uranium yaseKahuta njengendlela yokugcina kunye ne-India (Sattar 2006). IPakistan inokuthi iphinde isuke kwi-centrifuges yesizukulwana sokuqala kunye nesesibini ukuba uKhan wayithumela eLibya, eNyakatho Korea, nase-Iran ukuya koomatshini abanamandla ngakumbi (Hibbs 2007, 2007). Njengoko aba matshini beza kwi-intanethi, amandla emveliso yasePakistan kunye noluhlu lwe-uranium etyetyisiweyo inokunyuka kakhulu. IPakistan nayo ibonakala yakha ii-reactors ezimbini zokuvelisa iplutonium eKhushab (Warrick 2006; Broad and Sanger 2006). Umsebenzi ekugqibeleni kwezi kubonakala uqalile kwi-2006 (Albright and Brannan 2007). Nganye kwezi zixhobo zitsha zisenokulingana nereactor ekhoyo kwisiza. Nje ukuba zisebenze, ezi zixhobo ziyakuvumela ukwanda ngokukhawuleza kwezixhobo zasePakistan zeplutonium.
isiphelo
Kwiminyaka elishumi emva kovavanyo lwenyukliya, iinkokeli zaseIndiya nasePakistan ziyawaxhasa kwaye ziwaxhasa ngemali amalungiselelo emikhosi yazo yokulwa imfazwe yenyukliya. Imfazwe kunye nengxaki yomkhosi eyalandelayo, ishumi leminyaka lesiphithiphithi sezopolitiko kuwo omabini la mazwe, utshintsho kurhulumente waseIndiya, ukubhukuqa kunye nokutshintshela kwidemokhrasi ePakistan, kunye neengxoxo ezininzi zoxolo, aziphumelelanga ukuzisa utshintsho olunentsingiselo okanye ukuzibamba kumgaqo-nkqubo wenyukliya. . Iinkokeli zelizwe kunye nemikhosi exhobileyo isazimisele kwizixhobo zenyukliya. Umthetho-siseko osisikhokelo wezikhundla ezifanelekileyo zenyukliya uhlala uyimpumelelo yesakhono se-MAD. Kwangaxeshanye, iinkokeli zixelelana noluntu ukuba zizimisele ukuseka uxolo phakathi kwala mazwe mabini. Oku kukuphikisana okungenakwenzeka. Njengoko uAlbert Einstein wathi "Awukwazi ukukhusela kunye nokulungiselela imfazwe ngaxeshanye." Eyona nto inokuzuzwa kukufuna inzondo, intlekele, kunye neendleko zokukhangela inzuzo eyaziwa ngokuba "yimfazwe ebandayo."
Isantya esingazisoliyo sokuqhuba izixhobo zenyukliya kunye neenkqubo zemijukujelwa kula mazwe mabini kufuneka kuthotywe ngokukhawuleza. Ukungazinzi esele kutyhilwe lithemba lesivumelwano senyukliya ye-Indo-US kufuneka kusonjululwe. Ininzi into enokwenziwa. Amanyathelo okuqala acacileyo kukukhenkcisa ukuveliswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya, ukumisa olunye uvavanyo lwemijukujelwa, kunye nokulahla iimfundiso zomkhosi ezibandakanya okanye ezinokubangela ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya. Ukungaphumeleli ukujongana neenyani zenyukliya emsebenzini kwi-subcontinent kuqhuba umngcipheko wokuba i-Indiya nePakistan ziya kunikezela kwingqiqo ye-MAD yebhombu. Ngaphandle koko, ibhombu iya kuthatha ubomi bayo njengoko injalo e-US naseRashiya emva kweMfazwe ebandayo. Iya kugqitha ezopolitiko nenjongo. Kwanokuba ayisetyenziswa, iya kutyhefa amathemba ekamva elinoxolo.
amaNqaku
[1] "Usuku lweSizwe lweTekhnoloji luyabhiyozelwa," i-Code Information Bureau, uRhulumente waseIndiya, ngoMeyi 11, 2008.
[2] "Ishumi leminyaka yoXanduva kunye nokuZibamba," iSebe leMicimbi yezaNgaphandle, uRhulumente wasePakistan, ngoMeyi 28, 2008.
[3] Umbhalo weNgxelo eDityanisiweyo malunga neentetho zenqanaba labaphathiswa basePakistan-India, ngoMeyi 21, 2008.
[4] Jonga iSubrahmanyam (1990), Chellaney (1999), kunye noZehra (1997).
[5] Umzekelo, ngoJuni 2002 igosa lomkhosi waseIndiya lityhile izicwangciso zokuhlasela ngokukhawuleza ePakistan, lisongeza ukuba kwakukho kuphela "ithuba elincinci" lezixhobo zenyukliya ezisetyenziselwa ukuziphindezela (Bedi 2002).
[6] I-NSAB kufanele ukuba izimele kurhulumente, kodwa ilawulwa ngabaxoxisi (Babu 2003).
[7] Ngokomzekelo, umphathiswa wangaphandle uJaswant Singh wavuma ngokucacileyo kwi-Rajya Sabha ngoDisemba 16, 1998 ukuba "Ubuncinci abukho ubungakanani obuqingqiweyo bomzimba" (Rajagopalan 2005, 73).
[8] I-National Command Authority Ordinance, uRhulumente wasePakistan, ngoDisemba 13, 2007.
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