Ithathiwe America's iinkokheli ixesha elide ukufunda izifundo zenyukliya. Umongameli uHarry Truman, owathatha isigqibo sokuqhushumba Hiroshima kwaye Nagasaki wayibiza ibhombu yeathom โnjengeyona nto inkulu embalini.โ Phantse kwiminyaka engama-20 kamva, xa iMerika iphulukene nolawulo lwenyukliya, ivaleleke kugqatso lwezixhobo olwalukhula ngamandla kunye neSoviet Union, yaza yasinda kwintlekele eyayisongela imfazwe yenyukliya, uMongameli uJohn F. Kennedy wayichaza le bhombu njengelijike ihlabathi laba libhombu. intolongo apho umntu alindele ukubulawa kwakhe. Ukukhawuleza phambili eminye iminyaka engamashumi amabini, phantsi koxinzelelo lwemibutho yoxolo, uMongameli uRonald Reagan wavumelana nenkokeli yaseSoviet uMikhail Gorbachev ukuba amandla amakhulu kufuneka aphelise zonke izixhobo zenyukliya.
Ayizizo zonke iipolitiki kunye nobudlelwane boluntu. Kwanawona magorha abandayo akudala ngoku sele eqalile ukuthetha ngesidingo esingxamisekileyo sokuphelisa izixhobo zenyukliya. Bazibona njengesona sisongelo esikhulu kumandla aseMelika namhlanje. NgoJanuwari 2007, owayesakuba ngoonobhala belizwe uGeorge Shultz noHenry Kissinger, owayesakuba ngunobhala wezokhuselo uWilliam Perry, nowayesakuba ngusihlalo weKomiti yeSenethi yeeNkonzo zoXhobo, uSam Nunn bamkela โusukelo lwehlabathi elingenazixhobo zenyukliya.โ Lo mbono waqinisekiswa kwi-2008 ngoonobhala bangaphambili belizwe kunye nokukhusela kunye nabanye, bobabini baseRiphabhlikhi kunye noDemocrat, kuquka uMadeleine Albright, uJames Baker, uZbigniew Brzezinski, uWarren Christopher, uColin Powell noRobert McNamara. Kodwa, kwakhona, akuzange kubekho tshintsho kumgaqo-nkqubo.
Nakuba AmericaIinkokeli ziye zaqala ukuqonda ukuba ukukhangela ukhuseleko lwenyukliya luhambo oluyindleko kwaye oluyingozi oluya kuthatha ubomi balo, alunasiphelo, kwaye luzisa iingozi ezintsha ezinzulu, olu lwazi luphumelele nzima aluzange lufike. WaseMzantsi Asia. Kwiminyaka elishumi ukusukela ngoMeyi 1998 uvavanyo lwezixhobo zenyukliya ngo Indiya kwaye Phakistan, ingqiqo yenyukliya iyaqhubeka ityhileka apho ngokungayekeleliyo.
Bobabini oorhulumente baseIndiya nabasePakistan bathengise iimvavanyo zenyukliya kuluntu lwabo njengokuqinisekisa ukhuseleko lwesizwe. Imfazwe yaseKargil yalandela nje unyaka emva kovavanyo. Imfazwe yangqina ukuba ibhombu ayinakukhusela Indiya ukusuka ekuhlaselweni kwaye kwakungekho siqinisekiso soloyiso ngenxa Phakistan. Yabonisa ukuba amazwe amabini axhobe ngenyukliya anokulwa imfazwe yaye kwimeko enjalo iinkokeli zamazwe omabini ziya kusongela ukusebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya. Kwakufuneka kucace ngokukhawuleza ukuba ibhombu yayingeyonto yokuzikhusela.
Kodwa uKargil wayengonelanga ukufundisa ukulumka nokuzibamba. Kwiminyaka emibini kamva, Indiya kwaye Phakistan ulungiselele ukulwa kwakhona. Kuqikelelwa ukuba imikhosi eqikelelwa kwisiqingatha sesigidi yabalekiselwa emdeni, yaye izisongelo zenyukliya zenziwa ngokulahlwa.
Ziziphi izifundo eziye zafundwa? Akukho nanye, ngaphandle kokuba kwakufuneka bazilungiselele ngakumbi ukulwa imfazwe. Omabini la mazwe enze imidlalo emikhulu yemfazwe ecingela ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya.
Indiya kwaye Phakistan basavelisa i<em>plutonium kunye ne<em>uranium etyetyisiweyo nezizezona zithako ziphambili kwizixhobo zenyukliya. Abaqulunqi bemigaqo-nkqubo yenyukliya kuwo omabini la mazwe ngokucacileyo abacingi ukuba banezixhobo ezaneleyo. Abazange bachaze ukuba zingaphi izixeko abafuna ukukwazi ukuzitshabalalisa.
Kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo la mazwe mabini ebesenza ugqatso lwezixhobo zenyukliya. Olunye lweemvavanyo lulingo lomsebenzisi kunye nokuzivocavoca endle ngumkhosi. Baziqhelisa ukulwa imfazwe yenyukliya.
Njengoontanga babo kwamanye amazwe axhobe ngenyukliya, iinkokeli kunye nabacwangcisi bezomkhosi Indiya kwaye Phakistan zibonakala zingenakoyisa kwimiphumo yohlobo lwemfazwe abayicebayo nabayilungiselelayo. Imfazwe apho Indiya kwaye Phakistan ngamnye usebenzisa izixhobo zakhe zenyukliya ezihlanu kuphela kwizixeko zomnye unokubulala izigidi ngezigidi zabantu aze enzekalise abaninzi.
Iziphumo zenyukliya zinokuba mbi kakhulu ukuba Indiya kwaye Phakistan sebenzisa izixhobo ezimalunga nama-50 inye. Ngamnye wayenokwenza ezi zixhobo zininzi nezinye. Uphononongo lwakutsha nje olusebenzisa imifuziselo yemozulu yale mihla lubonisa ukuba ukusetyenziswa kwezixhobo ezingama-50 ilizwe ngalinye kula mazwe mabini kunokukhupha umsi owaneleyo ovela kwizixeko ezitshayo ukuze kubangele utshintsho kwimozulu, kuquka ukwehla okuyingozi kwemveliso yezolimo kunye nendlala egqubayo esenokuthabatha ishumi leminyaka. Iingxwelerha ziya kuba ngaphaya kokucingelwa.
Kusuku ngalunye oludlulayo, kunye nalo lonke utshintsho kurhulumente okhetha ukuqhubeka nemigaqo-nkqubo ekhoyo, izixhobo zenyukliya ziye zenziwa ngokunzulu ngakumbi kwiziko. Indiya kwaye Phakistan. UMzantsi Asia ubona uloyiso โlokutshabalalisa,โ inkqubo echazwa ngokudumileyo ngumbhali-mbali weNgesi kunye nomlweli woxolo u-EP Thompson njengebandakanya โinkqubo yezixhobo [zenyukliya], nayo yonke inkqubo yenkxaso yezoqoqosho, inzululwazi, yezopolitiko kunye neengcamango kuloo nto. inkqubo yezixhoboโinkqubo yezentlalo ephanda ngayo, โiyikhethaโ, iyivelise, iyilawule, iyayithethelela, ize iyigcine injalo.โ
Imbali yeminyaka engama-60 edlulileyo ifundisa ukuba ukufuna amandla enyukliya kongamela zombini ingqiqo kunye nokuziphatha. Iminyaka elishumi edlulileyo yenyukliya WaseMzantsi Asia icebisa ukuba ikamva lizakuba mfiliba.
UZia Mian, umbhali wemihlathi yezoMgaqo-nkqubo weZangaphandle ekuJoliswe kuwo (www.fpif.org), ukhokela iProjekthi yoXolo noKhuseleko kuMzantsi Asia kwiNkqubo yeNzululwazi noKhuseleko lweHlabathi, kwiSikolo seYunivesithi yasePrinceton iWoodrow Wilson yeMicimbi yoLuntu neyeHlabathi.
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