Ileta ye-EPW evela eMelika, ngoFebruwari 11, 2006
Imizamo yase-US yokujonga "ukwanda" inohanahaniso kwaye ayisebenzi. Ekubeni i-US (kunye namanye amagunya enyukliya) engazibandakanyi ekuthotyweni izixhobo, abanethemba abaqinisekanga malunga nokuba kutheni kufuneka banqatshelwe "isixhobo esipheleleyo". Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla (njengokuchasene ne-Iraq ngo-2003 kwaye ngoku inokwenzeka ukuba ihlasele i-Iran) isebenza kuphela ukwenza amanye amazwe akholelwe ukuba ukuba babenayo ibhombu baya kukhuseleka.
I-United States izama ukuthintela i-Iran ekubeni ifumane amandla okwenza izixhobo zenyukliya. Oku kuphela kolu ngcelele lwamva nje lwamadabi olubonakala lungenasiphelo kule minyaka ingama-60 idluleyo lokulawula ukuba amanye amazwe anokufikelela phi kwezi zixhobo. Ngeli xesha iye yasilela ukuqonda ukuba njengamandla amakhulu axhobe ngenyukliya iyinxalenye yengxaki njengenxalenye yesisombululo. Njengoko isithandi sobulumko saseRoma uSeneca wachazayo malunga neminyaka engama-2000 eyadlulayo, โamandla phezu kobomi nokufaโ musa ukuzingca ngawo. Nantoni na abayoyikayo kuwe, uya kusongelwa ngayo.รข
I-US yaba lilizwe lokuqala ukwakha ibhombu yeathom. Lilo lodwa eliwasebenzisileyo emfazweni. Iqonda amandla amakhulu ezixhobo zenyukliya, yacinga ngendlela yokukhusela igunya layo lenyukliya kwanangaphambi kokuba lenze ibhombu. U-Leslie Groves, owayephethe iprojekthi yebhombu, ecetywayo kwi-1943 ukuba i-US izame ukufumana ulawulo olupheleleyo lwazo zonke izixhobo ze-uranium ezaziwayo emhlabeni, ukumisa nabani na ongomnye onokufikelela nakwizinto ezisisiseko apho izixhobo zenyukliya zenziwe. .
Yakhe yasebenzisa ibhombu yeathom, i-US yamkele umgaqo-nkqubo wokuba bodwa kunye nokungabandakanyi, ukugcina oko kwakubizwa ngokuba รขโฌลisixhobo sokuphumelelaรขโฌ . Yala ekuqaleni ukusebenzisana neqabane layo elikufutshane ngexesha lemfazwe, i-UK, ukuyinceda ifumane izixhobo zenyukliya. IBritane yaqhubeka yaza yakha enye kunjalo.
Uloyiko lokuqala รขโฌลlokwandaรขโฌ yayiyiSoviet Union รขโฌโ nayo eyayilihlakani le-US emfazweni. Kwakukho ingxoxo-mpikiswano e-US ngo-1947 malunga nokuba ingahlasela na i-Soviet Union kwangaphambili, kubandakanya nezixhobo zenyukliya, zombini ukujonga ukunyuka kwayo kunye nokuyeka ukufumana amandla ayo enyukliya. Abacwangcisi bemfazwe base-US bacebise ukuba umgaqo-nkqubo mawube kukuba รขโฌลukwenziwa nje kwezixhobo zenyukliya ngelinye igunya, okanye kwanokuthengwa kwezixhobo zokuqhekeka, kungenza izizathu zokuthatha amanyatheloรขโฌ . I-US ayizange incede iFransi ngenkqubo yayo yezixhobo zenyukliya, kodwa ayizange ivimbe iqabane layo xa ekuqaleni kwee-1950s yagqiba ekubeni ihambe yenyukliya. Kodwa yayilibali elahlukileyo xa lalifika eTshayina kwiminyaka eli-10 kamva.
I-US ithathele ingqalelo ukuhlasela i-China xa kubonakala ngathi i-China inokuba sele iza kufumana izixhobo zenyukliya. Ngo-Epreli 1963, iinkosi ezihlangeneyo zabasebenzi base-US zenza izicwangciso ezisusela kuhlaselo lomoya oluqhelekileyo ukuya kuhlaselo lobuchule lwenyukliya kwizixhobo zenyukliya zaseTshayina. Kwakukho uphando olufanayo lwesebe likarhulumente wase-US ngo-1964. Phakathi kwezinye iindlela ezicetywayo yayizizohlwayo, ukungena ngaphakathi, ukubhukuqa kunye nokutshatyalaliswa, kunye nohlaselo.
Logic of Non-Proliferation
Ingcinga engemva kwale migaqo-nkqubo yabanjwa kolunye lwezifundo zakuqala zase-US malunga neziphumo zezixhobo zenyukliya kwezopolitiko zamazwe ngamazwe. Yaxoxa, ngo-1956, ukuba ingxaki yayingekokuba nje โabakhuphisi abaqhelekileyo abakumgangatho ofanayoโ babenokufumana ezi โzixhobo zipheleleyoโ kodwa โkusenokwenzeka ukuba ezinye izizwe ezisezantsi kwisikali samandla zinokubamba iathom. izixhobo nokutshintsha lonke unxulumano lwamazwe amakhulu namancinane.โ Yayikukuthintela ukuba kunokwenzeka oko ukuze i-US ijike ingqondo yayo ekuthinteleni ukwanda.
UPeter Clausen, umbhali-mbali weSivumelwano sokuNgena koBume benyukliya (NPT), uye waqaphela ukuba kwi-US ixesha leli nyathelo lalinxulunyaniswa nokulandela imigaqo-nkqubo yongenelelo kunye nemidla yehlabathi. Ababhali, "akuzange kwenzeke ngengozi ukuba ixesha lothethathethwano lwesivumelwano lihambelana nophawu oluphezulu lwamanzi eMelika emva kwemfazwe yehlabathi ... yokuqulatha kwaye isoyikise ukufikelela kwaseMelika kulo mmandla.รข
ISoviet Union yayinomdla wayo wokungabhebhetheki. Oku kubangelwa yinkxalabo malunga nokwabelana okunokwenzeka kwe-US kwezixhobo zenyukliya kunye namahlakani ayo e-NATO, ngakumbi i-West Germany, ukuvela kwe-China yenyukliya kunye (njengase-US) imfuneko yokunciphisa izoyikiso ezinokwenzeka kwimimandla apho inokukhetha ukungenelela. Ezi nkxalabo zazisekelwe kakuhle. Ngasekupheleni kwee-1960s, i-US yathumela amawaka ezixhobo zenyukliya kunye namalungu azo kwamanye amazwe, kubandakanya iCanada, Cuba, Greenland, Iceland, Japan, Morocco, Philippines, Puerto Rico, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Belgium, Greece, Italy. , Netherlands, Turkey, UK and West Germany.
Ukutshintshiselana namanye amazwe athembisa ukuba asoze akhe izixhobo zenyukliya, izixhobo zenyukliya zithi ngelo xesha zathembisa ukuqhuba uthethathethwano ngentembeko malunga nokuthotywa kwezixhobo zenyukliya. Kodwa, yayisisithembiso esigxekayo, okona kulungileyo. Omnye umcebisi waseMelika waphawula ukuba ukuqhubeka uthethathethwano akuthethi ukufikelela nasiphi na isivumelwano sokuthotywa kwezixhobo, รขโฌลekubeni ngokucacileyo akunakwenzeka ukuxela kwangaphambili uhlobo oluchanekileyo kunye neziphumo zothethathethwano olunjaloรขโฌ . UBill Epstein, igqala lombutho weZizwe eziManyeneyo kummandla wolawulo lwezixhobo kunye nokuthotywa kwezixhobo, ubhala phantsi omnye wabathethi-thethwano baseMelika evuma bucala ukuba i-NPT โyeyona midlalo mikhulu yokuqhatha yala maxeshaโ.
Kwiminyaka engamashumi amathathu anesihlanu kamva, ithemba lokupheliswa kwezixhobo zenyukliya libonakala limfiliba. I-US eneneni izimisele ukuyiphucula yonke indawo yezixhobo zenyukliya kunye neziseko zokwenza ezi zixhobo. Amanye amazwe asebenzisa izixhobo zenyukliya ngokungathandabuzekiyo aya kulandela. Kodwa bonke banyanzelisa ukuba abanye bathobele i-NPT. I-Indiya nePakistan, ngelixa zingaphandle kwesivumelwano, ngoku zilandela ingqiqo yenyukliya efanayo: sinayo kwaye siya kuyigcina, awukwazi.
Iingxaki zokuziphatha okubi kunye nobudenge beminqweno yenyukliya yase-Iraq kunye neNorth Korea kwaye ngoku i-Iran ayibonakalisi nje iimpazamo kwisivumelwano kodwa kunye neendlela zokuyilawula. Umnqophiso ukhuthaza amazwe angeyiyo eyenyukliya ukuba alandele amandla enyukliya; eneneni ibanika รขโฌลilungelo elingenakuphikiswaรขโฌ kobu buchwepheshe bubiza imali eninzi nobunobungozi. Kwangaxeshanye iyaqonda ukuba obu bugcisa bubalulekile kwiinkqubo zezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye izama ukuyithintela ekubeni isetyenziselwe esi siphelo. Ukuchasana akunakuze kucace ngakumbi.
I-NPT inika indima ekhethekileyo kwi-Arhente yaMandla e-Atomiki yaMazwe ngaMazwe (IAEA) kunye nebhodi yayo yabalawuli njengabahloli abajongene neenkqubo zobupolisa zenyukliya kumazwe angezizo ezenyukliya. Ibhodi yabalawuli iqhuba le arhente kwaye ubulungu bayo bumiselwa ngendlela yokuba amazwe ezixhobo zenyukliya abe ngamalungu asisigxina. Lo ngumzimba othe wavotela mva nje ukuthumela i-Iran kwiBhunga lezoKhuseleko le-UN.
Ubuthathaka be-IAEA
Imbali ye-IAEA idiza ubuthathaka bayo ebusweni bokuzimisela kokusetyenziswa kwamandla aseMelika. Owona mzekelo ubalaseleyo unikelwe ziziganeko ezilandela uhlaselo luka-Israel ngo-1981 kwisixhobo senyukliya sase-Iraq i-Osirak. Umlawuli jikelele kunye nebhodi yabalawuli be-IAEA basigxeke kabukhali isenzo sikaSirayeli kwaye bacela inkomfa yajikelele ye-IAEA ukuba ithathele ingqalelo ukunqumamisa uSirayeli ekusebenziseni amalungelo kunye nenyhweba yakhe. Inkomfa yajikelele yema kancinane kwaye ivotela kuphela ukunqumamisa lonke uncedo lobuchule kuSirayeli.
Kunyaka olandelayo, inkomfa yajikelele ye-IAEA yaqwalasela isigqibo sokwala ukuthabatha inxaxheba kukaSirayeli kwintlanganiso. Xa ivoti ichasene noSirayeli, i-US yafuna isibheno, kwaye xa oku kwalahleka imbali esemthethweni yeerekhodi ze-IAEA zokuba "abathunywa base-United Kingdom kunye ne-US baphuma kwiholo yenkomfa, belandelwa ngokusondeleyo luninzi lwabanye abasentshona. abathunywa. Phambi kokurhoxa kwinkomfa yajikelele, umthunywa wase-US ubhengeze ukuba urhulumente wakhe uza kuphinda ahlole imigaqo-nkqubo yakhe malunga nenkxaso ye-US kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba kwi-IAEA nemisebenzi yayo. .
Imbali ikwaqaphela ukuba i-US ibisoloko inegalelo elikhulu kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwe-IAEA kunye neenkqubo zayo zoncedo lobugcisa. Akuzange kusimangalise xa, kwiinyanga ezimbalwa kamva, umlawuli jikelele we-IAEA kunye nebhodi yayo yachaza ukuba u-Israyeli wahlala elilungu elipheleleyo le-IAEA, kwaye i-US yaqala kwakhona ubudlelwane bayo kunye ne-arhente.
I-Israel ineyona nkqubo inkulu kwaye inempumelelo yezixhobo zenyukliya ngaphandle kwamazwe amahlanu ezixhobo zenyukliya. Ayikhange isayine i-NPT kwaye kukholelwa ukuba igcina isitokhwe se-100 kwaye mhlawumbi amakhulu aliqela ezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye ibe nemijukujelwa eyi-ballistic enoluhlu oluya kuthi ga kwi-4,000 km (eJeriko-2), kunye nenqwelomoya ekwaziyo ukuhambisa izixhobo zenyukliya. kunye nenkwili yazisa imijukujelwa yohambo lwenyukliya. Ngokwahlukileyo kakhulu kwinkxaso yezempi yase-US, ezoqoqosho kunye nezopolitiko kwi-Israel yayikusetyenziso lwezohlwayo kunye nokunyanzeliswa kwe-Iraq ukunyanzelisa ukuthotyelwa kwezivumelwano zokulawula izixhobo kunye nezigqibo ze-UN, ekugqibeleni ukuhlasela kwe-2003 kunye nokusebenza.
IWashington Post yabika ekuqaleni kuka-2005 ukuba i-US ibibhabha ngeenqwelomoya zokucupha e-Iran phantse unyaka รขโฌลukufuna ubungqina beenkqubo zezixhobo zenyukliya kwaye ibone ubuthathaka kukhuseleko lomoyaรขโฌ . Yathi รขโฌลubuntlola basemoyeni buyinto eqhelekileyo kumalungiselelo omkhosi wohlaselo lomoya ekugqibeleni kwaye bukwasetyenziswa njengesixhobo sokoyikisaรขโฌ . U-Ashton Carter, owayesakuba ngusekela nobhala wezokhuselo e-US, wathi ngoDisemba ka-2005 โuyakukhwankqiswa kwaye adaneโ ukuba iphulo elifihlakeleyo elichasene nenkqubo yenyukliya yase-Iran belingekaqalisi.
Ukwanda kwenyukliya kunokuthotywa kuphela ngeendlela ezinjalo. Ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kuya kwenza amanye amazwe akholelwe ukuba ukuba nje bebenayo ibhombu baya kukhuseleka. Le ndlela ikhokelela kwintlekele.
Enye indlela, ukunganandisi ngentsebenziswano nangemvume, ayinakuphumelela okoko nje i-US inyanzelisa ukugcina nokuphucula izixhobo zayo zenyukliya kunye nokuvumela amahlakani ayo ukuba abe nezi zixhobo. Kungayiphi ingxoxo abanye abanokweyiselwa ukuba bayeke, okanye bangazifumani, izixhobo zenyukliya? Ithemba ekuphela kwalo likukuqondana ukuba zonke izixhobo zenyukliya zenziwe ngobubi obulinganayo, kwaye akufanelekanga kubekho indawo kwihlabathi lethu kwezo zixhobo zitshabalalisayo.
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