Ngokuqhelekileyo, amajelo ahlulekile ukuhlalutya ukuba kutheni isiphumo sonyulo lwaseJamani sisona sibi kakhulu. UMerkel akanguye ophumeleleyo, kodwa uyinkokeli ngoku ekwisikhundla esibuthathaka kakhulu, ekuya kufuneka enze izinto ezininzi ezivumelanayo kwaye ahlawule ngoku iimpazamo zakhe. Masenze ubuncinane awona manqaku abalulekileyo amane okuhlalutya.
Inqaku lokuqala: ukuhla kwamaqela emveli
Ngoku iminyaka ethile, amaqela emveli alawula amazwe awo ukusukela ekupheleni kweMfazwe yesiBini yeHlabathi aye angabinamsebenzi. Unyulo lokugqibela lwaseFransi lwabona ukuwa okusebenzayo kwamaqela e-Socialist kunye ne-Gaulist, ngokufika komviwa ongaziwayo ngokupheleleyo, uMacron, ngoku une-60% yezihlalo ePalamente. Kwenzeka okufanayo ngaphambili kunyulo lukamongameli waseAustria.
Le nkqubo ngoku iqalile eJamani. Iqela likaMerkel, iCDU, liye lasebenza kakhulu ukusukela oko yadalwa. Kwaye iqela labo, i-CSU (i-CDU yaseBavaria) iphulukene nesigidi seevoti ezimangalisayo. Kuye kwenzeka okufanayo kwiSPD, eyabona imvume ephantsi ukususela kumaxesha anamhlanje. La maqela mabini, kunyulo oludlulileyo ebene-67.2% yeevoti, ngoku afumene nje i-53.2%. Kwaye, njengayo yonke indawo, iivoti ezilahlekileyo zaya kumaqela angafumananga ukungoneliseki, kwaye umnqweno wokohlwaya ukusekwa wawubonakala. I-Linke, i-radical left-wing party, ifumene i-0.6% eyongezelelweyo, ngabavoti abagatya ukwanda kokungalingani kwezentlalo, kwaye abazange bakholelwe ukuba i-SPD iya kuhluka kwi-CDU kulo mbandela. I-Green ifumene i-0.5% eyongezelelweyo, ngabo bacatshukiswa sisithembiso sikaMerkel sokunyusa iindleko zokukhusela kwi-2% ye-GDP, ukukholisa uTrump. Kodwa oyena mntu wayephumelele kakhulu yayiyi-AfD, iqela lasekunene eligqithileyo, elalingumjelo wokungoneliseki kwabantu kubaphambukeli, kwiManyano yaseYurophu, kunye neminye imixholo yobuzwe neyabantu. I-AfD ifumene i-12.6 % yeevoti, yaba liqela lesithathu kunye namalungu angama-96 epalamente. I-AfD ifumene iivoti ze-980.000 kwi-CDU, i-470.000 evela kwi-SPD, iivoti ze-400.000 ezivela kwi-Linke. Kodwa, okubaluleke kakhulu, iivoti ze-1,200.000 ezivela kubantu abangazange bavote kunyulo oludlulileyo. Kuvoto, ama-60% kubo athi โbadanile yimeko ekhoyo yezopolitikoโ. Ngaxeshanye inkampani yokuvota i-Infratest Dimap, yafumanisa ukuba ama-84% ajonga imeko yezoqoqosho yaseJamani โilungileโ, xa oku kwakungama-74% kwiminyaka emine eyadlulayo, kunye ne-19% kwiminyaka esibhozo eyadlulayo. Unyulo lwalungekho ngokucacileyo kuqoqosho, kodwa malunga nokufuduka kunye nokulahlekelwa kwesazisi saseJamani.
Ke ngoko, uloyiso lukaMacron phezu kweLe Pen ayisosiphelo samaza oluntu. Kwaye abambalwa bayathandabuza ukuba ukuba uMacron ulahlekelwa sisibheno sakhe (njengoko sele senzeka), kwaye umlo wakhe wohlaziyo lwentlalo unqanyuliwe ngokubonakaliswa kobuninzi, uLe Pen uya kuphumelela ukhetho olulandelayo. Kwaye amaqela achasene nenkqubo kulo lonke elaseYurophu akazange aphumelele kunyulo lokugqibela, kodwa akazange aphulukane ne-eithe. Ngoku ziyinaliti yokulinganisa kuwo onke amazwe aseNordic, kwaye banokuvakalisa, njengoFarage, umsunguli weqela elichasene neYurophu UKIP, xa elahlekelwa ukhetho lokugqibela lwaseBrithani: akunamsebenzi, umyalezo wethu ube yinxalenye yabo bonke. inkqubo yezopolitiko. Kwaye uBrexit wayengowona mzekelo ubalaseleyo wokuba wayenyanisileโฆonke amaqela kumazwe eNordic kwafuneka abandakanye amanqaku abantu abaninzi, ngakumbi abafudukayo.
Ngokuqhelekileyo ayihoywa ukuba yinqanaba eliphakathi, umdlali oyintloko kolu tshintsho. Ukungalingani kwezentlalo eYurophu kuye kwakhula rhoqo, kwaye abaninzi abakumgangatho ophakathi bangamahlwempu okanye boyika. IJamani ingumzekelo omhle. Ngelixa ukungabikho kwemisebenzi yehla kunye ne-Merkel ukusuka kwi-11% ukuya kwi-3.8%, abo basondeleyo kumgca wentlupheko basuka kwi-11% ukuya kwi-17% yetotali. I-Merkel isuka kwintsilelo yoluntu ye-100 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ukuya kwi-surplus ye-20 yezigidigidi, kodwa kwangaxeshanye intlupheko iphindwe kabini ukuya kwi-10%, kwaye kukho abantu abazizigidi ezi-2 abanemisebenzi emibini ukubanceda bafikelele ekupheleni kwenyanga. Kwaye abadla umhlala-phantsi abahlala ngaphantsi kwenqanaba lentlupheko, banyuke nge-30%. I-15.7% epheleleyo yamaJamani ngoku ahlala phantsi kwentlupheko. Kwaba, baphantse babe zizigidi ezi-3 ngabantwana.
Ngaba uloyiko kunye nokuphazamiseka kwabakumgangatho ophakathi kuphela abaye batyhala iBrexit kunye neTrump? Ingcali yezoqoqosho uHomi Kharas, ingcali kudidi oluphakathi, iqwalasela ukuba i-43% yabemi behlabathi (abamalunga ne-3.200 yezigidi) ngoku babumba abakumgangatho ophakathi wehlabathi. Ikhula minyaka le nge-160 yezigidi. Into eqhelekileyo kubo kukuba ingakumbi abo bakumgangatho ophakathi balindele lukhulu kurhulumente kwaye babeka ukukhula koqoqosho ngaphambi kwayo nantoni na. Bancedwa yi-Intanethi kunye namajelo eendaba ezentlalo, ukuba bawazi amalungelo abo, kunye neengozi zabo. Kumazwe atyebileyo, imfundo enkulu inceda abantu. Kumazwe asakhasayo, ingcinezelo koorhulumente inamandla ngokufanayo. Owona mzekelo ubalaseleyo yiTshayina. Phakathi kuka-2002 no-2011, kuye kwakho ukwanda okumandla kuqhanqalazo kunye nokuphulukana nokuthenjwa kweziko likarhulumente, nangona ixesha lokukhula koqoqosho. Inyani kukuba ukugcina ukukhula kunye nobulungisa bentlalo kunye, udinga izixhobo. Kwaye oku kuyingxaki ekhohlo. Umyalezo wayo wemfuza kukwabiwa kwakhona kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba. Sinokukwenza njani oku xa sikwilizwe lezinto ezinciphayo?
Inqaku lesibini. I-antisystem iba yinkqubo emiliselweyo
UBill Emmot, owayesakuba ngumlawuli we-Economist, ubhale wathi: โSiphila kwixesha lesiphithiphithi sezopolitiko. Amaqela angaphantsi konyaka ubudala athathe amandla eFransi nakwi-megalopolis yaseTokyo. Iqela elingaphantsi kweminyaka emihlanu likhokela uvoto e-Itali. I-White House ibamba i-billionaire engazange ibe namava kwezopolitiko. Kwaye kufuneka songeze ukuba phambi kwengxubakaxaka ka-2009, akukho qela labemi beli lizwe okanye iqela labemi beli lizwe limelweyo ePalamente.
Ke ngoko sinamava amancinci malunga nendlela eziphatha ngayo inkqubo ye-antiparty xa ilawula. Kodwa ukuba sibheka eUnited States, ePoland naseHungary, ngokucacileyo bazama ukubeka phantsi kolawulo lwamaziko oluntu, kungekhona ngenxa yemilinganiselo yedemokhrasi eyabazisa emandleni, kodwa iphulo elitsha lokwesaba kunye nokuhaha: i-globalization, immigration. , ukugxothwa kwemisebenzi ngokuzenzekela, ukungalingani, ubuhlanga, kunye โnelizwe lam kuqalaโ. Kwaye amaqela achasene nenkqubo, abo bonke bathumele umyalezo wokuvuyisana ne-AfD, bajonge kuPutin njengomzekelo wezopolitiko oza kulandelwa (ngaphandle kwePoland ngenxa yezizathu ezicacileyo). Kodwa iUrban of Hungary ithetha ngokuphandle โngedemokhrasi engenankululekoโ njengesona sizathu siphambili sokulwa ne-EU (nePoland ngemilinganiselo yobuKatolika nxamnye neYurophu yehlabathi).
Kufanelekile ke ngoko ukucinga ukuba xa i-AfD, iLe Pen, kunye nenkampani iza kulawula, (ukuba indlela eya kwi-antisystem ayiyekwa), siza kubona ukwehla okukhulu kwedemokhrasiโฆ kuba sineJapan, iIndiya , I-China, iTurkey, iiPhilippines, ukukhankanya nje abambalwa, abangabobuzwe, i-xenophobe kwaye bathambekele ekuboniseni umbono wabo, njengoko abaduni baseRashiya benza kunyulo lokugqibela.
Kufuneka sijonge ukwehla kolutsha ekuthatheni inxaxheba kwezopolitiko njengento entsha ekhathaza kakhulu. Imiba ephambili kulwabiwo lohlahlo lwabiwo-mali iya ngokuya isiya kubantu abadala, abavotayo. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuba uninzi lwabantu abatsha abavoteli amaqela achasene nenkqubo, kodwa bayarhoxa. Ukuba abantu abatsha baye bavota, ngekhe sibe neBrexit kunye neTrump. Kunyulo lwaseJamani, kuphela i-10% yabo baphakathi kwe-18 kunye ne-24 avotela i-AfD: onke amanye amaqela eminyaka enza njalo, kwaye kufuneka siye kwiqela elidala kakhulu, abo bangaphezu kweminyaka engama-70 ukuze babone ukuhla, ukuya kwi-7% kuphela. ivoti . Kodwa i-69 pesenti yabadala bavotela i-CDU kunye ne-SPD, ngokuchasene ne-41% yabancinci. Ngoko ke, ingcamango yokuba ulutsha lufudukela ekunene luyintsomi. Bakhetha ukuzikhwebulaโฆkodwa ingxaki ihleli. Ukuyeka kwabo kunceda zombini inkqubo ukuba ihlale, kunye ne-antisystem ukuba iphumelele. Kodwa thatha i-Italiya, umzekelo, eqhutywa liziko lasekhohlo, iPD. Basanda kuvuma inkuthazo yolutsha olungaphangeliyo (lusondele kwi-30%), emva kokunika i-30 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ukuba ihlangule kwiibhanki zengingqi ezine. I-antisystem ye-M5S, ngoku ehamba phambili kwi-polls, yenze ukulwa nenkqubo yezemali ibe yinto ephambili. Ukuba ubusemncinci, ufundile kwaye awuphangeli, ubuya kukhetha ntoni?
Inqaku lesithathu: Unyulo lwaseJamani luyintlekele eYurophu
Isibheno seYurophu ehlangeneyo siye saphela ixesha elide. Yaba yimfashini ukubonisa amaziko aseYurophu njengeqela labaphathi abangenakuphendula, ngaphandle kokunxibelelana nenyani, ngenjongo yokuxoxa ngobungakanani beetamatato. Enyanisweni, yiBhunga labaPhathiswa, eliqulunqwe ngabameli bamazwe, abathatha izigqibo: i-EU inokuphumeza kuphela. Kodwa kuba lula kwezopolitiko ukubuyela umva usuka eBrussels kwaye wenze izigqibo, ngakumbi ezo zingathandwayo, njengediktat ebekwe kwilizwe lakho. Oku, kunjalo, sesinye sezizathu ezininzi zokuhla kweYurophu njengeprojekthi yezopolitiko. Kodwa kuluncedo ukukhumbula lo mdlalo, kuba ubonisa ukungakhathali kodidi lwezopolitiko. Akuzange kubekho umanyano lokwenyani emva kweprojekthi yaseYurophu. Ilizwe ngalinye likhangele kuphela izabelo, kwaye ngoku, kungekhona naloo nto (njengoko umzekelo wePoland neHungary, abamkeli abakhulu kakhulu babonisa). Ke, iYurophu isingise phi?
Enyanisweni kukho imibono emithathu yeYurophu. Omnye ngumbono kaJuncker, intloko ye-EU. Ibiza ukuqinisa amaziko aseYurophu, kunye nokuqinisa iinjongo zentlalontle, kude kube ngoku ishiye izinto eziphambili kwezoqoqosho kunye nezorhwebo. Akunjalo ukuba uJuncker uqhubela phambili: uyaqonda nje ngaphandle kokwenza oko, amaqela achasene neYurophu aya kuba nobomi obulula. Umbono wakhe kukuqinisa iYurophu njengelizwe elibalaseleyo, kunye namazwe avuma amandla angaphezulu, ukuze asebenze ngcono. Emva koko kukho umbono weMacron, ohamba kwicala elifanayo, kodwa evela kwilizwe elihlala likhusela ngomona ulongamo lwayo lwesizwe. Nangona kunjalo uyaqonda ukuba kweli hlabathi likhuphisanayo, akukho lizwe laseYurophu linokuhamba kude, kwaye iYurophu eyomeleleyo iyimfuneko. Emva koko kukho iYurophu kaMerkel, ebhekiselele kwimanyano yamazwe, apho izigqibo zithathwa ngamalizwe, (iJamani njengeyona inamandla), kunye ne-EU ezisebenzisayo. Ukusukela oko uMacron wangena kulawulo, ebelwela ukuvuselelwa kwe-entente yesiFrentshi-yaseJamani, eyimfuneko kwiYurophu esebenzayo. IMacron kunye namazantsi eYurophu bebecela intlalontle yengeniso yaseYurophu, ukuze kugcinwe ababuthathaka kwaye bakhule ngokufanayo, benze iNgxowa-mali yezeMali yaseYurophu ukoyisa ingxaki, umphathiswa omkhulu wezemali noqoqosho, ukhuselo oluqhelekileyo lwaseYurophu kunye neqela elininzi. amanyathelo asekuhlaleni okubuyisela ukholo kwabalahlekileyo baseYurophu eYurophu.
Ewe, yile nto kanye iJamani iye yavota ngalo lonke ixesha. AmaJamani akafuni ukwabelana ngeengeniso zabo nabalahlekileyo. Kule ngxoxo-mpikiswano, kukho ingxoxo enamandla yenkolo neyokuziphatha: inqobo yokuziphatha yamaProtestanti ngokuchasene nenkcubeko yamaKatolika yokuxolelwa ngokulula. IGrisi yayiyintsimi yokuqinisekisa imfundiso ye-ordo liberalism, imbono yaseJamani yezoqoqosho, apho ukuhamba lula kunye nokungabikho kokuziphatha kufuneka kohlwaywe. Esi yayisisilumkiso nakwamanye amazwe, afana ne-Itali, iSpain kunye nePortugal. Isiphumo sezohlwayo eGrisi, eyayiyi-4% nje yoqoqosho lwaseYurophu, kukuba emva kweminyaka esixhenxe kukho ubuncinane i-20% yokungaqeshwa, ilahleko ye-25% yoqoqosho lwaseGrisi, ukucutha ipenshini ephantse ibe yi-40%, kunye ne-20% yabemi abaphantsi kwentlupheko. Akufanele ilibaleke ukuba icandelo elikhulu lemali-mboleko yebheyile yaya kuqala kwiibhanki (ingakumbi isiJamani), ukuhlawula iikhredithi ezinkulu ababenazo kunye nemo yamaGrike eyaphukileyo, kwaye hayi kubemi. Kwaye ngoku izikhululo zeenqwelo moya kunye namazibuko ziphantsi kolawulo lwaseJamani.
Ubuso boku kunyanzeliswa kwe-austerity, eyona nxalenye ebaluleke kakhulu yomoya ochasene neYurophu, yayinobuso bomphathiswa wezeMali ongenakho kunye nokukhubazeka, uSchauble. Kodwa kwakungekho mathandabuzo ukuba wayeyipro Europe, nokuba iYurophu esekwe kwimodeli yaseJamani. Kodwa ngoku uye wahamba ukuba abe nguMongameli wePalamente, ukuba ashiye indawo yakhe kusihlalo weFPD, iqela lenkululeko, uChristian Lindner, ochasene neYurophu. I-FDP ichasene ne-euro, ifuna iGrisi ngaphandle kwe-Euro, ifuna umgaqo-nkqubo oqinileyo kubabaleki: ngamanye amazwi, ulungile kakhulu. I-Merkel, i-Chancellor elumke kakhulu, ngokuqinisekileyo ayiyi kukwazi ukuhlangabezana nokulindela kukaMacron kunye noJuncker. IYurophu iya kuphinda ihlale ilindile. I-Italiya mhlawumbi iya kuqhutywa yiNkulumbuso eselula (ukusuka kwi-M5S ye-antisystem) engavavanywanga ngokupheleleyo eneminyaka eyi-31, evakalise ukuba ingathanda ukushiya i-Euro, kwaye inciphise amandla eBrussels. Umsinga ochasene neYurophu awukanqunyanyiswa konke konke, ngokuchasene nenzondelelo yeendaba.
Inqaku leSine: Uxanduva lukaMerkel
Akukho mathandabuzo ukuba ukufuduka okukhulu kwesigidi esinye samaSyria, kunikeze isixhobo esinamandla kwi-Afd, kunye nenkululeko, ukubanceda bafumane amandla. Kodwa ixesha liya kungqina ukuba yayisisigqibo esilumkileyo, esibuliswe luqoqosho lwaseJamani. Ubalo lubonisa ukuba abafuduki bangabemi abangumzekelo, bahlawula irhafu, kwaye bazisa inzuzo kwilizwe elibafumanayo. Ewe, sibona kuphela ibali lezigebenga kunye nabadlwenguli, ukuba amaqela obuhlanga asebenzise ngempumelelo, kuba ngamaxesha anzima ukufumana i-scapegoat kulula kwaye kulula. Kodwa uMerkel ukhwele nje i-idiosyncrasy yaseJamani, engakhange enze naluphi na umzamo wamanani wokuhlanganisa abemi kumbono. Uyazi ukuba iphupha eliyimfihlo lamaJamani kukuba ngumSwitzerland: akukho nxaxheba kwihlabathi (ngaphandle kweshishini), akukho vavanyo, akukho mngcipheko. Uye waba ngumzekelo weso ngqondo - uyakuvuyela ukubizwa ngokuba nguMutti, umama. Ngaphandle kwabafuduki, wathatha omnye umngcipheko, owawukuyeka inyukliya, emva kwentlekele yaseFukushima. Ke ngoko, akenzanga nto ukwazisa abemi ngoxanduva lwabo lwaseYurophu. Wayebakhusela kulo naliphi na idini lokuba ngabemi baseYurophu, wala nasiphi na isicelo se-EU, i-IMF kunye ne-Wold Bank sokuchitha intshiyekela enkulu eyenziwa yiJamani ngorhwebo lwangaphakathi kwiYurophu. Isikhundla sakhe yayikukuba: siza kuyigcina imali esiyenzileyo ngokusebenza nzima kwethu. Kwaye uSchauble yayisisixhobo sakhe nje. Ngoku, ngenxa yoburhulumente bakhe bomdibaniso ongaqhelekanga uya kucela isithuba seBhanki Enkulu yaseYurophu kukhetshe waseJamani, uJedemans, osuka kwiBhanki yaseJamani: inkampani elungileyo kuChristian Lindner. Iintsuku zobumnyama ziyeza eYurophu; I-Merkel ngowona mzekeliso ubalaseleyo womahluko phakathi kweJamani yaseBonn, eqhutywa ngabapolitiki abazimiseleyo nabazinikeleyo, kunye neJamani yaseBerlin, eliqumrhu elizingcayo, elingenambono. Kwaye emva kokuchitha i-100 yeebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni ngonyaka, iminyaka engama-20, i-East Germany ihlala isemva ngokungenathemba, kwaye kulapho i-AfD yathatha esona sabelo sikhulu seevoti.
Ngobusuku obusemva konyulo, umgqatswa weSPD, uMartin Shultz, wathi ejonge emehlweni akhe: Nksk Merkel, ungoyena ulahlekileyo. Nguwe onoxanduva loloyiso lwe-AfD. Masithembe ukuba ngokuzithandela okanye hayi, uMutti uya kuba nguye onoxanduva lokuphela kwephupha laseYurophu.
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Inqaku elidandathekisa kakhulu.