Seboka sa Lefatše sa Moruo se kopane Davos bekeng ena. Ho bokelloa ha lihlopha tse ngata tse ruileng ka ho fetesisa le baetapele ba linaha ho tlama hore ho nahanoe ka litsela tseo moferefere oa bokhaphithaliste oa lefats'e o ka re nkang ka 2023. Re ithutile lithuto life ho theoheng ha matlotlo a mangata hakaale a moruo - ho kenyeletsoa le maruo a baetapele ba plutocrats - ka 2022? har'a mahlomola a mangata hakaale a lipolotiki, a tikoloho le a moruo oa sechaba?
Karolo e 'ngoe e bontšitsoeng ho Forum e ncha Tlaleho ea Kotsi ea Lefatše ea 2023, ho na le maikutlo a macha a ho tšoha har'a batho ba fetang 2,700 ba tlileng kopanong, bao selemong sena - ba 53.rd kopano e joalo tlas'a tataiso ea Klaus Schwab - e kenyelletsa baetapele ba European Union, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Jeremane, Finland, Greece, Spain, Philippines, Korea Boroa le Afrika Boroa, hammoho le bonyane ba limilione tse likete tse 100 (empa ha ho le ea mong ea tsoang Russia ka lebaka la likotlo. ).
Sehlooho sa Foramo se reng, “Tšebelisano-’moho Lefats’eng le Arohaneng” se bontša tšebeliso ea lentsoe le lecha (le tumileng morao tjena ke setsebi sa moruo sa lipolotiki sa Univesithi ea Columbia, Adam Tooze): “Re na le kotsi ena ea ho hlaha ha mathata a mangata,” mohlahlami oa Schwab, Saadia Zahidi, o pheha khang, “hobane. ho etsahala lintho tse ngata ka nako e le ’ngoe.” Nakong eo ho neng ho batla ho se na thuso lipakeng tsa linaha tse ngata, buka ea morao-rao ea setsebi sa moruo sa Univesithi ea New York Nouriel Roubini e behile mathata ana a lefats'e ho fihla ho leshome. MegaTreats.
Boholo ba ba tlileng Foramong ba tseba hantle maemo a moruo a polycrisis. Le ka nqane ho ts'enyeho ea lidolara tse libilione tse 'maloa e amanang le tlhaselo ea Russia ea Ukraine, likhohlano tsa mebaraka ea matla le lijo, likoluoa tsa boemo ba leholimo, Covid-19 e tšoarellang kapa pheletso ea tšohanyetso ea China ea ho koaloa ha seoa, ho bile le liphetoho tse ling tsa tectonic mabapi le hore na matlotlo a bohlokoa hakae. seo se tšoenyang batho bana ba maemo a holimo, bao bongata ba bona ba tlang Davos ba futsanehile ho feta seboka se fetileng ka Mots'eanong o fetileng.
'Me matšoenyeho a joalo a ka boela a tataisa mekhatlo ea sechaba, ea basebetsi le ea tikoloho - mohlomong le baetapele ba' maloa ba mebuso e tsoelang pele - ha ba hlahloba maemo a fetohang a ho bokella chelete eo ba sokolang ho eona, ntlha e nkiloeng moqoqong o latelang.
Mohlala, maqakabetsi a mokoloto oa 2022 le ho feto-fetoha ha 'maraka oa setoko le ho feto-fetoha ha lichelete - haholo-holo tse amanang le ho phahama ha litefiso tsa tsoala tse sebelisoang ke US Federal Reserve le libanka tse bohareng tse ikopantseng, ho loants'a inflation ea litheko tse holimo - ke matšoao a bohlokoa. Ha li tsebise feela mekhatlo ea lefatše e nchafalitsoeng ea toka ea moruo ("litšenyehelo tsa ho phela"), empa hape li bonts'a tšibollo e tebileng eo hoo e batlang e le litlaleho tsohle likhoeling tse tlang li tla baka bohloko bo tšabehang sechabeng le ho thibela pholiso e hlokahalang haholo ea tikoloho.
Re ka qala ka ho hopola ka moo lits'ebetso tse sa leka-lekaneng tsa nts'etsopele li bakiloeng ke likhohlano tsa maemo a moruo le maano a naha a sa hlahiseng litholoana lilemong tse 50 tse fetileng, ho tloha ka 1973 tse hlohlelletsang liphetoho tsa matla moruong oa lefats'e oa lipolotiki:
- tšekamelo ea nako e telele (ea lilemo tse 50) ea "ho bokella chelete e ngata ho feta tekano" - ke hore, bokhoni bo feteletseng bo hlahang mafapheng a tlhahiso ea moruo oa lefats'e, lethathamong la thepa, matlotlo a lichelete le mebaraka ea basebetsi - tse e-s'o ka tsa rarolloa ka nepo, empa ho e-na le hoo, li lelekoa. ka katleho e telele ea Asia Bochabela;
- ho tsieleha ho bakoang ke tlhahiso ea bokapitale ba Bophirima, ka thoko ho liindasteri tse ling tse neng li sebetsa ka linako tse ling - ho tloha ka 2005-014 le 2020-22 - joalo ka ha ho nyoloha ha theko ea "commodity super-cycle" ho ile ha hohela batseteli le ho putsa lipotoloho tsa lichelete;
- ho koaloa ha liindasteri tse ngata tse hlokang mosebetsi o boima tseo pele li neng li ithorisa ka lifeme tse kholo, le ho ata ho nkela basebetsi sebaka ka mechini;
- matla a maemo a holimo a eseng feela a lichelete tsa lichelete tsa malapeng le tsa machaba, empa hape le moruong o mongata, motse-moholo o sekametseng kantle ho naha le oa khoebo; le
- taolo ea mohopolo oa "Washington Consensus", o khothaletsang taolo ea neoliberal, privatization le phano ea phaello ea eseng feela ea thepa le lits'ebeletso empa hape le meralo ea motheo ('me ka hona ts'ebetso e tlase ea matsete libakeng tsa lentsoe e sa nkuoe e le chelete e ngata).
Ka mor'a mohato oa pele oa bothata ba ho bokellana ho feteletseng lefatšeng ka bophara lilemong tsa bo-1970, haholo-holo ka mokhoa oa "stagflation" (ho ema ho kopanngoa le inflation), lilemo tsa bo-1980 e ne e le bakeng sa Lefatše la Boraro lilemo tse leshome tse lahlehileng ka lebaka la likoloto tse ngata. Ho tloha bofelong ba lilemo tsa bo-1980, ho qhoma ha mathata a lichelete nako le nako - le ho phatloha ho sa fellang - ho ile ha totobala, ho lebisa US Federal Reserve ho leano la ho fana ka beile bakeng sa litsi tse nkoang e le "tse kholo haholo hore li ka hloleha." Ha tsitsipano ea lichelete e ntse e tsoela pele bohareng ba bo-1990 ba mathata a 'maraka a ntseng a hlaha, ho hloleha ha Long Term Capital Management, ho putlama ha dot.com, le ho se lekane ho ile ha phahama.
Bohlale ba semmuso ba banka e bohareng ea Bophirima bo ile ba qala ho kenyelletsa "Quantitative Easing" - ho tsamaisa mochini oa khatiso oa chelete ka lebelo le felletseng - ka holim'a litefiso tsa beile le litefiso tse tlase haholo tsa tsoala ho tloha bofelong ba 2008, ha libanka tsa matsete, inshorense le ho putlama ho hoholo ha moruo ho tloha US ho pota lefatše. Ts'ebetso e phetoa ho tloha ka Hlakubele 2020 ho fihlela Pulungoana 2021, 'me ka lichelete tsa moruo tse maemong a holimo haholo, bofuma le ho se lekane li ile tsa mpefala hammoho le mahlomola a Covid-19, ha bonyane batho ba limilione tse 15 ba hlokahala (ha milione e 'ngoe ea China e lebelletsoe ho timela mathoasong a 2023. joalo ka ha litšitiso tse thata li ne li fokotsoa).
Sena sohle se ne se khotsofatsa ho ba kaholimo ho piramide ea leruo, ho fihlela 2022. Pejana, ho tloha ka Hlakubele 2020 ho fihlela Pulungoana 2021, leruo la banna ba leshome ba ruileng ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng le nyolohile ho tloha ho $700 billion ho ea ho $1.5 trillion.
Ka nako eo, lenane la barui le ne le etelletsoe pele ke mohoebi oa theknoloji ea hlahetseng Pretoria, ea hōlisitsoeng Johannesburg, Elon Musk, eo lifeme tsa hae tse ka sehloohong e neng e le Tesla le SpaceX. Ho elella bofelong ba selemo sa 2021, leruo la hae le ile la fihla sehlohlolong sa hoo e ka bang $300 bilione, le phatlohile ka liperesente tse fetang 1000 nakong ea Covid-19. Mothehi oa mabenkele a Amazon Jeff Bezos o tsebile thepa e fetang $200 billion, le ho tse 4th-8th maemo e ne e le theknoloji le Big Data tycoon Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Mark Zuckerberg le Steve Ballmer, kaofela pakeng tsa $ 104-138 limilione tse likete.
The plutocrats' roller-coaster
Empa litaba li ile tsa fetoha haholo ka 2022, ha boholo ba lifolete tse ruileng ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng li putlama qetellong ea selemo:
Batho ba leshome le metso e 'meli ba ruileng ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng, ka December 2022, ho latela Forbes
boemo bo | lebitso | Bilione | mohloli o moholo | naha |
1 | Bernard Arnault | $179.1 | LVMH | France |
2 | Elon Musk | $146.5 | Tesla, SpaceX | United States |
3 | Gautam Adani | $127.7 | Infrastructure | India |
4 | Warren Buffett | $107.6 | Berkshire Hathaway | United States |
5 | Jeff Bezos | $107.3 | Amazon | United States |
6 | Bill Gates | $103.3 | Microsoft | United States |
7 | Larry Ellison | $102.4 | oracle | United States |
8 | Mukesh Ambani | $89.6 | Diversified | India |
9 | Carlos Slim Helu | $81.4 | Telecom | Mexico |
10 | Steve Ballmer | $78.5 | Microsoft | United States |
11 | Larry Page | $77.3 | United States | |
12 | Michael Bloomberg | $76.8 | Bloomberg LP | United States |
Source: https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/
Ka lebaka la lintlha tse ka nģ'ane ho taolo ea esita le li-plutocrat tsena, ka 2022 ba ile ba thefuleha ka tsela e sa lebelloang, 'me batho ba 500 le malapa a ka holimo ho $1.4 trillion. Musk o ile a theola halofo ho ea ho $ 146 limilione tse likete ka mor'a ho becha liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 44 ka ho reka mokhoa oa hae oa ho itlosa bolutu oa sechaba, Twitter. Boleng ba kabelo ea Tesla bo theohile ka liperesente tse 65 ka 2022 ka lebaka la ho se tšepe batseteli ho tsosolositsoeng taolong ea nako ea hae, kholo le kelello, mme qalong ea 2023 ha e fane ka tahlehelo e sa feleng. Letlotlo la Bezos le lona le ile la putlama, ho fihla ho $107 bilione, haholoholo ka lebaka la hore Amazon e lahlehetsoe ke halofo ea boleng ba eona (le kamorao ho tlhalo e fokolisitseng leruo).
Sena se ile sa siea morui oa Fora Bernard Arnault e le monna ea ruileng ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng, empa hoo e batlang e le bo-ralibilione ba bang kaofela ba ne ba tsoa US, ntle le Maindia a mabeli - Gautam Adani le Mukesh Ambani - le privatizer ea mehala ea mehala ea Mexico Carlos Slim. Ka kakaretso Forbes ' Lenane la barui ba 2022 le tlalehiloeng ka mokhoa o ikhethileng oa libaka har'a batho ba limilione tse likete tse 2,668: "Ho theohile ho matla ka ho fetesisa ho etsahetse Russia, moo ho nang le limilione tse likete tse 34 ho feta selemong se fetileng" (li-oligarchs tse anngoeng ke likotlo tsa lichelete li kenyelletsa Vladimir Potanin, Leonid Mikhelson, Vladimir Lisin, Alisher Usmanov. , Alexey Mordashov, Roman Abramovich, Gennady Timchenko, Suleiman Kerimov, Victor Rashnikov, Alexei Mordashov le ba bang).
Ho sa le joalo Chaena, taolo e thata ea Beijing ea Big Tech e fokolitse palo ea batho ba limilione tse likete ba Chaena ho tloha ho 694 ho ea ho 607 (ea bobeli ho US ka 735), ho kenyeletsa le ba Hong Kong le Macau. Tse peli tse tummeng ka ho fetisisa, "Pony" Ma Huateng oa Tencent le Jack Ma oa Alibaba, li ile tsa oela ka tlase ho $ 40 limilione tse likete ka thepa e 'ngoe le e' ngoe.
William Robinson o ngola bukeng ea hae e ncha, Na Global Capitalism e ka Mamella?, hore sehlopha sena se emetse boetapele ba Sehlopha sa Transnational Capitalist se thehiloeng ho tsoa "kopanong ea mafapha a etelletseng pele har'a lihlopha tsa naha tsa bokapitale." Empa ho tšoarella - le bokhoni ba ho sebetsa ka bonngoe - ba "beng le baokameli ba mekhatlo e meholo ea machaba le mekhatlo ea lichelete eo hona joale e tsamaisang moruo oa lefats'e" e ile ea belaelloa ka 2022.
Leano la bokhaphithaliste ba Transnational
Le hoja ka mokhoa o hlakileng ho bonahala ho na le sehlopha se joalo, se nang le mabitso le mehopolo e ka hlahisoang phatlalatsa kapa e tlohetsoe ka mokhoa o ikhethileng (ho latela tse ratoang ke World Economic Forum, Bilderberg Group le marang-rang a mang a phahameng), ke ho fetola mantsoe liketsong moo momahano oa mokhatlo o hlophisitsoeng. sehlopha se ka tsejoa. 'Me matla a sehlopha sa bokhaphithaliste ba linaha tse ling a ntse a belaelloa, ho latela mefokolo ea morao-rao ea mekhatlo ea eona e etelletseng pele, haholo-holo likopanong tsa linaha tse fapaneng: haholo-holo Bretton Woods Institutions le World Trade Organisation, kapa sebaka sa bohlokoahali seo Big Oil e natefeloang ho sona khahlano le taolo ea maemo a leholimo. libeso tsa khale - Tumellano ea Tumellano ea Matla a 1994, e fanang ka mokhoa oa Investor-State Dispute Resolution mokhoa o ratang chelete le ho thibela maano a makhaola-khang a phokotso ea mesi.
Ehlile, ho hloleha ha linaha tse ngata lilemong tse mashome tsa morao tjena ho bonts'a lehloeo la mekhatlo ea machabeng ho mefuta ea litharollo tsa machabeng tse hlokahalang bakeng sa mathata a hajoale a lefats'e. Joalo ka ha Robinson a e beha, batho bana ba maemo a holimo le bo-ralipolotiki ba hiriloeng ba ntse "ba haelloa ke mekhatlo ea lipolotiki e sebetsang ho rarolla bothata bona, ho tsitsisa sehlopha se secha sa matla a lefats'e, le ho aha bocha hegemony ea capitalist, ka lebaka la karohano lipakeng tsa moruo oa lefats'e le tsamaiso ea naha ea naha. matla a lipolotiki.”
Ntle le mokhoa o tsitsitseng oa ho bokella chelete, batsamaisi ba lichelete ba etelletseng pele ba ile ba bonahala ba se na thuso le ho feta, hobane "Ha menyetla e ntse e putlama bakeng sa matsete a inahaneloang lekaleng le leng, Sehlopha sa Transnational Capitalist se ile sa fetohela lekaleng le leng ho laolla masalla a lona," Robinson o hlokometse. Ehlile ka 2022, keketseho ea chelete e kholo ea data e kanna ea fokotseha (bonyane ka nakoana, joalo ka ha bubble ea Dot.Com e ile ea phatloha ka 2000-01), haholoholo har'a bathehi ba li-FANG tse phatlohang tsa 2010s (Facebook, Apple, Netflix le Google) le lik'hamphani tse peli tse kholo tsa China (Tencent le Alibaba).
Leha ho le joalo, kananelo e kholo ea boleng ba kabelo ka 2022 e etsahetse makaleng a mang. Mmaraka o moholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng oa lichelete oa khoebo - New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) - o bone litheko tse ntseng li phahama tsa "motse-moholo oa bohata" (seo Karl Marx a se bitsitseng lipapiso tsa thepa, joalo ka liabo tsa mebaraka ea setoko) makaleng a mararo: Oli e Khōlō, Sesole. -Industrial Complex le Big Pharma. Lehlohonolo lena le bakiloe ke koluoa ea matla, tlhaselo ea Russia ea Ukraine le phano ea liente tse limilione tse likete tse 13 tsa Covid-19 ka 2021-22, ka ho latellana.
Lifeme tsa US Exxon le Chevron li ile tsa etella pele NYSE ka phaello ea 2022, ka liperesente tse 80 le 53 tsa keketseho ea theko ea karolo ka ho latellana, ha tse 'ne tse latelang tse kholo ka ho fetisisa - Norway's Equinor, London-based Shell le BP le Paris-based Total - kaofela li bonahetse keketseho ea boleng ba kabelo ho tloha. Liperesente tse 28 ho isa ho tse 40 ka 2022. Ho tsoa ho Big Pharma, bahloli ba babeli ba ka sehloohong e ne e le Merck le Eli Lilly ka liperesente tse 45 le 32, ka ho latellana, ho latela keketseho e makatsang ea theko ea 2020-21 hang ha ente ea Covid le phaello ea kalafo e matlafalitsoe ke "Ts'ebetso e neng e e-so ka e bonoa ea puso ea Trump. Lithuso tsa Warp Speed”.
Ketso e iqapetsoeng e nyamelang
Empa tsena e ne e le mekhelo, hobane ha US Federal Reserve e nyolla litefiso tsa tsoala ho tloha bofelong ba 2021, kholo ea moruo e ile ea theoha 'me likhatello tsa likoloto tsa hlaha. Ka thepa e fumanang phaello e se e le bethe e betere ea matsete, Index ea Wiltshire ea likarolo tsohle tse thathamisitsoeng tsa US e theohile ka liperesente tse 21 ka 2022, 'me har'a lifeme tse 500 tse holimo (S&P500) ho ne ho e-na le ba fumaneng chelete ba 132 feela ba bang ba lahlehetsoe.
Ntle le Tesla, feme e kholo e latelang e ileng ea hlaheloa ke kotsi e mpe ea NYSE e ne e le Zuckerberg's Meta (Facebook), ho theosa le liperesente tse 64, e lateloa ke lik'hamphani tse ling tse tharo tse kholo tsa IT tsa West Coast: Advanced Micro Devices (55%), Bezos 'Amazon (50%). le Nvidia Semiconductors (hape le karolo ea 50 lekholong). Litekanyetso tsa bafani ba litaba tse kholo ka ho fetisisa - Netflix le Disney - li theohile ka liperesente tse 51 le 44 ka ho latellana. Likarolo tse peli tse kholo tsa NYSE, Apple le Microsoft, li theohile ka liperesente tse 27 le 29 ka ho latellana. Likarolo tse peli tse kholo tsa banka - Bank of America le JP Morgan - le tsona li lahlehetsoe ke karolo ea 26 le 15 lekholong ea boleng ba tsona, ka ho latellana.
Asia, feme e le 'ngoe ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa lilemong tsa morao tjena e ne e le Tencent, e thathamisitsoeng Hong Kong e nang le tlhōrō ea lichelete tsa pele tsa 2021 tsa US $ 916 limilione tse likete. Empa ka Mphalane 2022, ka nako eo Xi a ileng a khethoa hape kopanong ea Mokha oa Makomonisi (ho ileng ha etsa hore bo-ramatsete ba bangata ba machabeng ba lahle likarolo tsa China ka lebaka la bora ba hae ho indasteri e ikemetseng ea Big Tech), boleng ba mmaraka ba Tencent bo ne bo theohetse ho $251 billion, 74. liphesente tse putlama (le hoja kapele e ile ea imena habeli ka boleng). Feme ea bobeli ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa ea Asia, Alibaba (e thathamisitsoeng habeli Hong Kong le New York), e fihlile sehlohlolong ho elella bofelong ba 2020 ho $868 bilione empa kamora ho fuputsoa ka tlolo ea tlholisano le melao ea bareki, e theohile ka liperesente tse 81 ho isa tlase ho $168 billion ea lilemo tse peli. hamorao.
Ho hongata haholo bakeng sa tumelo e foufetseng eo bo-ramatsete ba bangata ba neng ba e-na le eona, hoo likarolo tsa Blue Chip li neng li tla khona ho hlōla sefefo sa ho theoha ha boleng. Lifeme tse 100 tse holimo limmarakeng tsa lefats'e li lahlehetsoe ke $7.2 trillion ka boleng ba kabelo ka 2022. Tahlehelo e bile kholo ka ho fetisisa setsing se matla sa bokhaphithaliste ba lefats'e, US, e amohelang lifeme tse 16 ho tse 20 tse holimo (likoporasi tseo e seng tsa US e bile boemo ba bobeli. mehleng ea khale ea oli ea Saudi Aramco, 11th- Tencent e kholo ka ho fetisisa, 14th-mohlahisi oa semiconductor oa Taiwan oa TSMC ea behiloeng; le Arnault ea 15th-e behiloe Louis Vitton, kapa LVMH).
Likhakanyo tse sa leka-lekaneng tsa sebaka
Litheolelo li ne li lebeletsoe esale pele, ha ho nahanoa ka theko e phahameng ka ho fetesisa ea 'maraka oa setoko e hlohlellelitsoeng ke maano a hlephileng a lichelete, empa sebaka se ne se sa lekana. Bofelong ba 2020, haufi le nako ea tlhoro bakeng sa bahanyetsi, "Buffett Indicator" - ke hore, capitalization ea 'maraka (theko e felletseng ea lifeme tse thathamisitsoeng) e arotsoeng ke Gross Domestic Product - e thusa ho lekola hore na likarolo tsa mebaraka ea naha li fana ka matšoao a hore na chelete e phalletse kae kapa ho e-na le hoo e ile ea khomarela, hangata ka lebaka la taolo ea phapanyetsano. Ho na le li-anomalies tse 'maloa. Sebakeng sa pele ho isa libakeng tsa boraro ho Letšoao la Buffett, 'me ehlile li-index tse neng li nyoloha ka potlako ho elella bofelong ba lilemo tsa 2010, e ne e le Hong Kong (e nang le 1777 Buffett Indicator ka December 2020), Iran (508) le Saudi Arabia (345).
Ka boraro ba bona ba ne ba e-na le litšobotsi tse ikhethang. Taba ea pele, index ea Hong Kong Hang Seng e ile ea tšoara Tencent le Alibaba - lik'hamphani tse peli tse kholo tsa Asia ho fihlela 2022 - mme ka hona e ile ea fihla sehlohlolong mathoasong a 2018, pele ho mokhahlelo oa pele oa likhohlano tsa Beijing ho Big Data. Lenane lena le ile la senya karolo ea 57 lekholong ho ea tlaase ea morao tjena ka October 2022. Ea bobeli, Saudi Tadawul Stock Exchange e ile ea phahama haholo-holo ka lebaka la Phatlalatso ea Pele ea Sechaba ea Aramco ho elella bofelong ba 2019, e nyolohela tlhōrōng ka April 2022, ka mor'a moo 'maraka o ile oa theoha ka karolo ea 26 lekholong. Ho fihlela bofelong ba 2022. Ea boraro, 'Maraka oa Tehran Stock o ile oa phahama ka Hlakubele-Phato 2020 ka lebaka la lintlha tse tharo: ho etsa likhoebo tse 49 tsa mmuso, ts'ebeliso ea mmuso ea lekeno la kantle la letlole la eona la leruo le ikemetseng ho tsetela 'marakeng oa lehae, le ho phahama ho hoholo ha litheko ho kentseng chelete ea malapa a mangata liabong (e le hore ho se ke ha lahleheloa ke chelete libankeng ka lebaka la ho theoha ha boleng). Ka Phato 2020, bubble ea Tehran e ile ea fihla pheletsong, 'me likhoeling tse robong tse latelang e ile ea putlama hoo e ka bang liperesente tse 50 pele e fola hanyane.
Limmaraka tsa karolo ea bone ho isa ho tsa botšelela tse turang haholo ho elella bofelong ba 2020, joalo ka ha ho hlalositsoe ke Letšoao la Buffett le sebelisang limmaraka tsa mantlha tsa setoko, e ne e le Afrika Boroa (312), Switzerland (277) le United States (193). Kamora ho eketseha ho hoholo ha 2021 le likotsi tsa 2022, likarohano tsena li ne li sa fetohe. Afrika Boroa e ne e sa fetohe ka ho fetesisa kaha chelete e ngata ea chelete ea lehae e ne e itšetlehile ka Tencent, kaha hoo e ka bang karolo e le 'ngoe ho tse tharo ea beng ba feme ea Machaena e ne e le ka lebaka la ho becha ha bo-ramatsete ba lehlohonolo ka 2001 ho $35 milione ponong ea Pony Ma. Seo se ile sa etsa hore feme ya hae - feme ya mehleng ya kgethollo ya batho ba basweu ya Naspers - e nyolohele ka theko, e kenyeletsang hoo e ka bang diphesente tse 30 tsa Johannesburg Stock Exchange pele ho 2018.
Mokhahlelong o latelang har'a mebaraka e meholo ea li-stock e ne e thehile limmaraka tse sa fetoheng hantle: Singapore, Sweden, Netherlands, Canada, France, Japan, Australia le Korea Boroa.
Ha ho metha boholo ba limmaraka (eseng maemo a lekanyelitsoeng a Letšoao la Buffett), United States e fihletse hoo e ka bang $40 trillion ho elella bofelong ba 2022, e lateloe ke China ka $10 trillion, Japane le Hong Kong hoo e ka bang $5 trillion, le mebaraka e menyenyane haholo. UK, Fora, Canada, India le Switzerland.
Limmaraka tsa li-stock li ne li sa tsamaee. Matlotlo a mang a inahaneloang a lichelete a ile a phahama 'me a oa haholo ho feta, joalo ka boleng ba Bitcoin, ho theoha ho tloha hoo e ka bang $ 1 milione e' ngoe le e 'ngoe ka November 2021 ho ea ho $293,000 pele ho 2023, ha palo ea chelete eohle ea cryptocurrency e theoha ho tloha ho $3 trillion ho ea ho $850 limilione tse likete ka nako e tšoanang (Bitcoin e ne e emela hoo e ka bang 40 lekholong ea 'maraka, e lateloa ke Ethereum ka karolo ea 18 lekholong). Ha craze e fihla pheletsong, e 'ngoe ea limmaraka tse kholo - FTX, e thehiloeng ke Sam Bankman Fried - e ile ea senoloa ho elella bofelong ba 2022, nakong ea bosholu bo tlotlollang ba boemo bo phahameng, e le morero oa bolotsana oa Ponzi. (Hape se hlokomelehang ke hore o tšehelitse batho ba bangata ba nang le liofisi tsa mekhatlo ea neoliberal Democratic Party ka linyehelo tsa liranta tse limilione tse 40 ka 2022 - haholo likhethong tse khahlano le bakhethoa ba tsoelang pele - molemong oa ho fumana ts'ehetso e potlakileng ea molao le taolo mesebetsing ea hae.)
Boholo ba bofokoli bo inahaneloang bo akarelletsoang lits'ebetsong tsena tse iqapetsoeng tsa theko ea capital - pele ho ea holimo 'me ho tloha qalong ea 2022 ho ea tlase - bo ka saloa morao ho matla a batsamaisi ba libanka tse kholo tsa moruo. Ka lebaka la Quantitative Easing, litefo tsa libanka le litefiso tse tlase tsa tsoala ka 2009-13 le 2020-21, chelete e iqapetsoeng e fumanoeng ka theko, ho feta tekanyetso ea 'nete ea boleng ba thepa.
Empa tlhaho ea mehlape ea rena, 'me taolo holim'a phallo e kholo ea lichelete' marakeng oa lichelete tsa lefats'e e lutse e tsepamisitsoe haholo matsohong a matlo a mangata a matsete a etellang pele: BlackRock e nang le $ 9.6 trillion tsamaisong ea thepa ho elella bofelong ba 2022; Sehlopha sa Vanguard, $8.1 trillion; Botšepehi, liranta tse libilione tse 4.2; Union Bank ea Switzerland, liranta tse libilione tse 4.4; State Street, liranta tse libilione tse 4.0; Morgan Stanley, liranta tse libilione tse 3.2; JP Morgan Chase, $ 2.9 trillion; Credit Agricole, $2.9 trillion; Allianz, liranta tse libilione tse 2.8; Capital Group, $ 2.7 trillion; Goldman Sachs, $2.4 trillion le tse ling tse joalo. Bajalefa ba ho qetela ba lichelete tse sa utloahaleng tsa 'maraka oa setoko e ne e le bona le batseteli ba bang ba mekhatlo.
Ho timela ho lakatsehang ha dollar
Ho qala bofelong ba 2021, bo-ralibanka ba bohareng le bona ba lokela ho qosoa ka ho senya moruo oa 'nete ka leano la lichelete le thata ho feta le nepahetseng. Sepheo sa molula-setulo oa Fed Jerome Powell e ne e le ho emisa inflation e ntseng e phahama ka potlako, leha ho ne ho ntse ho totobala ho fihlela ka 2022 hore mohloli oa mantlha oa keketseho ea litheko e ne e se tlhoko e feteletseng ea bareki le keketseho ea meputso ea basebetsi. (Ba-Progressives ho e-na le hoo ba qositse matla a litheko tsa oligopolies.)
Ho phahama ha theko ho emetse phokotso e tobileng ea boleng ba boleng ba chelete, e leng ho utloisang batho ba futsanehileng bohloko bao hangata moputso oa bona o sa batleng ho lokisoa ha inflation. Empa ka inflation, ho joalo le ka melato ea likoloto - puseletso ea sekoloto le phaello - e oela maemong a nnete (bakeng sa bonyane likoloto tse neng li sa rekoe ka sekhahla se feto-fetohang, ke hore ho nyoloha le sekhahla sa tsoala ea 'maraka).
Empa leha inflation e ne e le molemo (e le mokhoa oa ho theola boleng) ho ba alimang ba nang le likalimo tse sa fetoheng, bothata bo boholo nakong e tlang e ne e le boima ba mokoloto oa lefats'e. Ehlile, haeba Quantitative Easing e sa sebelisoe hape nakong ea khatello ea maikutlo nakong e tlang ho tlosa mathata a lichelete hape, ho ka hlaha mathata a felletseng a likoloto tsa domino.
Ka Mphalane 2022, IMF ea Mphalane 2022 Phello ea Moruo oa Lefatše e amohetse hore ho phatloha ha tšepo ka mor'a Covid ho se ho felile:
“Mosebetsi oa moruo lefatšeng ka bophara o theohile ka mokhoa o pharaletseng le o matla ho feta kamoo ho neng ho lebeletsoe, ka theko e phahameng ho feta e bonoang lilemong tse mashome a ’maloa. Mathata a litšenyehelo tsa ho phela, ho tiisa maemo a lichelete libakeng tse ngata, tlhaselo ea Russia ea Ukraine, le seoa se ntseng se tsoela pele sa Covid-19 kaofela li boima haholo ponong. Kholo ea lefats'e e lebelletsoe ho theoha ho tloha ho liperesente tse 6.0 ka 2021 ho ea ho liperesente tse 3.2 ka 2022 le liperesente tse 2.7 ka 2023.
Ka lehlakoreng le leng, tsamaiso ea lefats'e ea bokapitale e ne e se e le nakong ea ho putlama ha lichelete lefatšeng ka bophara ka 2008-09, e se e le molemo ka ho chechisa morao le maqheka a mang a ho falla. Ke ka lebaka leo puseletso ea sekoloto se entsoeng ka lidolara ke motho e moholo ka ho fetisisa lefatšeng, Lefapha la Lichelete la United States, le ne le ntse le tšehetsoa habonolo ke bakoloto ba machaba. Lebaka le bonolo la hore phallo e joalo e tsamaee esita le ho thepa e khutlisang chelete e tlase joalo ka Lichelete tsa Lichelete tsa US, ke karolo eo chelete ea lidolara tsa Amerika e bileng le eona e le sebaka se sireletsehileng ho tloha ka 1944. Ha e le hantle, ho bile le nako e khutšoane ea morao-rao ea bo-1970 ha khauta e kopana. e nkile taolo ka lebaka la inflation ea US.
Joalo ka ha setsebi sa moruo sa lipolotiki se thehiloeng Poland, Richard Westra a bua ka nako eo, "dolara e le chelete e kholo ea lefats'e, mathata a ho nyoloha ha litheko tsa US a ile a romelloa lefatšeng ka bophara. Bahlolisani ba tsoetseng pele moruong, haholoholo, ba ile ba qala ho bonya ka mekhoa ea ho khutlisa dollar sebakeng sa eona sa WWII. ” Leha ho na le bokhoni ba Polokelo ea Lichelete le Federal Reserve ho sebelisa hampe matla ao a lefats'e a maholo a moruo, leha ho le joalo dolara e ile ea lula e tiile, leha e hopotsa Westra,
"Lidolara li ile tsa tlala limmaraka tsa lefats'e tlas'a maemo ao phaello ea 'nete e neng e le ka tlase ho tekanyo ea theko ea dollar, e leng ho theha paradeise ea ho alima lidolara tsa lefats'e, Federal Reserve Molula-setulo oa mehleng eo, Paul Volcker, a phahamisitse sekgahla sa tsoala sa US. Litefiso tsa mabitso li tla tloha li nyolohela ho hoo e ka bang karolo ea 21 lekholong. "
Ka mokhoa o ts'oanang, har'a ho feto-fetoha ha hona joale, dollar e ile ea phahama khahlanong le lichelete tse ling tse ngata ka 2022, joalo ka 2020 le 2008. Hore na tokisetso ea chelete e 'ngoe e ka hlaha ho tsoa sehlopheng sa Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa, joalo ka ha ho nahanoa hangata ke batšehetsi ba chesehang, ho sa ntse ho tla bonahala. Empa ho latela liphapang tse kholo tsa bloc le ho se tsitse ha moruo, le mehlala ea baetapele ba BRICS ba ts'episang haholo molemong oa phetoho ea lichelete tsa lefats'e empa ba sa fane ka letho (e mpa e le Banka e Ncha ea Nts'etsopele ea Lefatše), e felletseng ka botlalo. ho hlasela matla a dollar ho bonahala ho le thata haholo. Ts'epo ea hore ho tla ba le mokhoa o mong ho feta IMF ("Contingent Reserve Arrangement" ea $100 bilione), kapa mekhatlong e leeme ea New York ea litekanyetso tsa mekoloto, kapa ho its'etleha ha moruo oa BRICS ka lidolara bakeng sa khoebo ea machabeng, ha ea ka ea phethahala.
Leha ho le joalo, ho na le katoloso e lebelletsoeng ea boloko, tšebetso ea "BRICS+", mohlomong mathoasong a Phato ha kopano ea boetapele e tla tšoareloa Afrika Boroa. Har'a litho tse ncha tse ka bang leshome ke linaha tse 'maloa tsa bohatelli - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Nigeria le Algeria, tse hapileng tšehetso ea Beijing le Moscow ka 2022 - e ka fetolang lipalo.
Ebile, hantle, tlhophiso ea "petrodollar" ea 1973 (oli e rekoang ka lidolara 'me haholo-holo phaello ea moea ea Maarabia e ileng ea sebelisoa hape ka libanka tsa New York) e ileng ea fa chelete ea US matla a nako e telele ka mor'a hore Richard Nixon a hlakole Tumellano ea Bretton Woods ea 1944 ka 1971. ka $80 bilione ea seo e neng e le mekoloto ea US - ke hore, ho lefa ounce e le 'ngoe ea khauta e bolokiloeng Fort Knox bakeng sa $35 e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe e hlahisoang ke beng ba lidolara tsa machaba - hammoho le ho theoha ha theko ea lichelete ("stagflation," karolo e 'ngoe e bontšang maemo a thata a mmaraka oa basebetsi le mekhatlo e matla ea basebetsi. ka nako eo), o ne a ile a etsa hore ho belaelloe boemo ba lichelete ba Washington. Puso ea phaello e phahameng ea Volcker e ne e le qeto e ka sehloohong e ileng ea fetola maruo a US (ka litšenyehelo tsa ho putlama ha lefatše), ho tsosolosa hegemony ea dollar bakeng sa bonyane nako ea 1980-2020.
Kajeno, mefokolo e mengata ea taolo ea moruo e bohareng ba US e bonahala haholo, 'me e boetse e le stagflation. Leha ho le joalo ho sa tsotellehe lipuisano tsohle tsa morao-rao mabapi le leano le lecha la lichelete le litefo, karolo ea dollar ho bokapitali ba machaba e ntse e tebile. Mathoasong a 2023, hoo e ka bang liperesente tse 60 tsa lichelete tsa lichelete tsa kantle ho naha tse neng li tšoaretsoe ke libanka tse bohareng li ne li le ka lidolara (ho tloha ho karolelano ea liperesente tse 65 ho tloha 2000-20). Kabelo ea dollar ea phapanyetsano ea phapanyetsano ea kantle ho naha ka nako eo e ne e le liperesente tse 90, tsa likalimo tsa moeli tse 52 liperesente, tsa mekoloto ea machabeng liperesente tse 50, liperesente tse 50 tsa invoice ea khoebo le liperesente tse 42 tsa litefo tsa SWIFT (le pele Russia e lelekoa ka Hlakubele 2022). Moruo oa Amerika kajeno o ka tseka liperesente tse 22 feela tsa GDP ea lefats'e le liperesente tse 12 tsa khoebo ea lefats'e, ka hona ts'ebeliso ea lidolara ke bo-ramatsete ba lefats'e e fa Fed matla a maholo.
Ho feta moo, ha ho tluoa tabeng ea lichelete tsa lichelete tsa lichelete tse ratoang, ho ntse ho bonahala eka motseteli oa bobeli o moholo ka ho fetisisa oa lichelete tsa lichelete tsa US Treasury, Chaena (e nang le liranta tse fetang limilione tse likete tse 900 ho elella bofelong ba 2022, hanyenyane ka morao ho $ 1.078 trillion ea Japane), ha a thahaselle ho sisinya seo. seketsoana mothating ona, ho sa tsotelehe thekiso ea Beijing e tsitsitseng, butle-butle ea lidolara. Libaka tse ling tse kholo tse amohelang beng ba chelete e fetang $100 bilione ho Matlotlo a US e ne e le lilekane tsa US kapa batseteli ba nang le thahasello ba sa ikemisetsa ho etsa thekiso e ngata ka mabaka a lipolotiki, ho theola matla a lidolara: United Kingdom ($ 638 billion). Belgium (libilione tse 327), Lihlekehleke tsa Cayman (liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 297), Luxembourg (liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 296) le Switzerland (liranta tse limilione tse likete tse 263). Ka chelete e pakeng tsa $100 le $250 bilione ho T-bill holdings, ke linaha tse ling tse halofo-dozen tseo hangata li leng bohareng ba Bophirima: Ireland, Brazil, France, Taiwan, Canada, India, Hong Kong, Singapore le Saudi Arabia.
Powell o bonahala a latela script ea khale ea tsosoloso ea dollar, ho sa tsotellehe hore na ho bohloko hakae. Ntle le moo, ka 1979 Volcker Shock e bakile ho putlama ha moruo lefatšeng ka bophara le mathata a neng a e-so ka a e-ba teng bakeng sa malapa, lik'hamphani le linaha tse ngata tsa meputso e mahareng le tse futsanehileng. Mathoasong a lilemo tsa bo-2020, ha Fed e sebelisa matla a eona ho phahamisa litefiso tsa lefats'e, monyetla o ntse o le teng oa hore ho khutlela ho putlama ha lefatše ho ka baka mathata a mang a mekoloto.
Kholo ea moruo oa lefats'e e neng e lebelletsoe ka 2023 le ho feta e ne e le tlase - hape e ne e ajoa ka mokhoa o sa leka-lekaneng - ho feta maemo a hlokahalang ho feta likolotong tse teng meruong e mengata. Esita le Chaena, limmaraka tsa thepa le bahahi ba ka sehloohong ba matlo ba ne ba qalile ho putlama ka 2022. Nouriel Roubini oa Univesithi ea New York, e mong oa litsebi tse fokolang haholo tsa moruo ho bolela esale pele ho putlama ha 2008-09, o ile a bontša ho tšoenyeha ka maemo a neng a e-s'o ka a bonoa. ho hlakile ho alima haholo, mmoho le tsa Bophirima
"Mekoloto e kenyellelitsoeng joalo ka mekoloto e sa lefelloeng ho tsoa mekhatlong ea penshene ea pay-as-you-go le lits'ebeletso tsa tlhokomelo ea bophelo - tseo kaofela li tla tsoela pele ho hola ha sechaba se ntse se tsofala. Ha u sheba feela likoloto tse hlakileng, lipalo li hlolla. Lefats'eng ka bophara, kakaretso ea likoloto tsa poraefete le tsa mekhatlo ea sechaba e le karolo ea GDP e nyolohile ho tloha ho liphesente tse 200 ka 1999 ho ea ho liphesente tse 350 ka 2021. Hona joale karo-karolelano ke 420 lekholong ho pholletsa le moruo o tsoetseng pele, le karolo ea 330 lekholong Chaena. United States, ke karolo ea 420 lekholong, e phahameng ho feta nakong ea Ho oa ho Hoholo ha Moruo le ka mor’a Ntoa ea II ea Lefatše.”
"Megathreat" ena (e 'ngoe ea tse leshome), bakeng sa Roubini, e ne e le motheo oa:
"Ho thella ho thata - ho putlama ho hoholo ha nako e telele - ka holim'a koluoa e matla ea lichelete. Ha makhopho a thepa a ntse a phatloha, litekanyetso tsa ho lefella likoloto li ntse li eketseha, 'me meputso e fetotsoeng ke inflation e oela malapeng, likhoebong le mebusong, mathata a moruo le ho putlama ha lichelete ho tla fepana. Ha e le hantle, linaha tse tsoetseng pele moruong tse alimang ka chelete ea tsona li ka sebelisa ho phahama ho hoholo ho sa lebelloang ho fokotsa boleng ba sebele ba sekoloto se itseng sa nako e telele se tsitsitseng. Kaha mebuso e sa ikemisetsa ho nyolla makhetho kapa ho fokotsa tšebeliso ea chelete ho fokotsa likhaello tsa eona, ho etsa chelete ka khaello ea banka e bohareng ho tla boela ho nkuoe e le eona tsela ea ho se mamele.”
O phethela Roubini, "'M'e oa mathata ohle a likoloto a ka chechisoa, a sa qojoe."
Ka lebaka la eona, Seboka sa Lefatše sa Moruo se tseba ka likhohlano tsena, 'me e ncha Tlaleho ea Kotsi ea Lefatše e thathamisa letoto la lipelaelo, ho kenyeletsoa le tse ngata tse bontšang likhohlano tsena tsa moruo:
- Ho phatloha ha letlotlo la thepa: Litheko tsa matlo, lichelete tsa matsete, likarolo le thepa e 'ngoe li ntse li khaoha ho tsoa moruong oa sebele, e leng se lebisang ho theoheng ho matla ha tlhokahalo le litheko. E kenyelletsa, empa ha e felle feela ho: li-cryptocurrensets, litheko tsa matla, litheko tsa matlo le mebaraka ea setoko.
- Ho putlama ha indasteri ea bohlokoa ho latela tsamaiso kapa ketane ea phepelo: Ho putlama ha indasteri ea bohlokoa ea lefats'e kapa ketane ea phepelo e nang le tšusumetso moruong oa lefats'e, mebaraka ea lichelete kapa sechaba e lebisang ho ts'oenyeho ea tšohanyetso phepelong le tlhokong ea thepa le lits'ebeletso tsa bohlokoa. tekanyo ea lefatše. E kenyelletsa, empa ha e felle feela ho: matla, lijo le thepa ea bareki e tsamaeang ka potlako.
- Mathata a likoloto: Lichelete tsa khoebo kapa tsa sechaba li loanela ho bokella likoloto, e leng se bakang ho putlama ha batho ba bangata, ho ba le mathata a lichelete kapa ho hloleha ho lefa mekoloto.
- Ho hloleha ho tsitsisa maemo a theko: Ho se kgone ho laola maemo a kakaretso a theko ya thepa le ditshebeletso, ho kenyeletswa le thepa. Ho kenyeletsoa keketseho e ke keng ea laoleha (inflation) kapa phokotso (deflation) ea litheko.
- Ho ata ha mesebetsi ea moruo e seng molaong: Keketseho ea lefats'e ea mesebetsi e seng molaong ea moruo le pefo e ka bang mpefatsang tsoelopele ea moruo le kholo ka lebaka la botlokotsebe bo hlophisitsoeng kapa mesebetsi e seng molaong ea likhoebo. E kenyeletsa, empa ha e felle feela ho: phallo ea lichelete e seng molaong (mohlala, ho qoba lekhetho); le khoebisano e seng molaong le khoebisano (mohlala, ho qhekella, khoebisano ea batho, khoebo ea liphoofolo tse hlaha).
- Ho putlama ha nako e telele ho moruo: Haufi le lefela kapa kholo e liehang ea lefats'e e tšoarellang lilemo tse ngata e lebisang linakong tsa ho putlama; kapa ho fokotseha ha lefatše (ho theoha ha moruo kapa ho tepella maikutlong).
Leha ho le joalo, bothata ke hore tsena ke tsona feela a moruo mathata a tafoleng. Litšokelo tse tšoarellang haholo tsa tikoloho, tsa sechaba, tsa lipolotiki le tsa bophelo bo botle le tsona li ntse li tsoela pele. 'Me joalo ka ha moqoqo o latelang o tla bonts'a, bofokoli ba hona joale ba linaha tse ngata - esita le motsoako oa bo-imperialist / subimperialist joalo ka G20 - ho sebetsana le polycrisis ha e so bonahale e fokolisa haholo, bonyane lilemong tse 80 kapa ho feta tse fetileng.
ZNetwork e tšehelitsoe ka lichelete feela ka seatla se bulehileng sa babali ba eona.
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