Kana tikatarira shure kuhondo huru dzezana ramakore rakapfuura uye tichitarira mberi kungozi iri kukura yehondo yakarwiwa nezvombo zvenyukireya, pane mukaha mumwe wakatanhamara mukunzvera nokunzwisisa. Mukaha uyu uri paruzivo rwangu hauwanzobvumwa, kana kukurukurwa, nevatungamiriri vezvematongerwo enyika kana kutariswa munzvimbo dzinonzi dzakazvimirira dzenhau dzekuMadokero. Zvechokwadi, gaka racho rinoratidzika kunge rakarambwa zvakajeka, uye rakapiwa hegemonic twist, nehutungamiri hweBiden, kunyanya neAntony Blinken akadzokorora kusimbirira kuti mutemo weAmerica kunze kwenyika, kusiyana neayo evadzivisi vayo vakuru, 'inotongwa-inotongwa.'
Pakutanga kuona 'hutongi-hutongi' hunogona kunge huri chirevo chipfupi chekutevedzera mutemo wenyika dzakawanda. Blinken haaiti chirevo chakadaro, uye kunyangwe mutemo wekune dzimwe nyika hawk angave nenguva yakaoma kuomesera maitiro eAmerica epasi rese se 'anotongwa nemutemo,' asi angati, kana kuti anotenda, achitevera Thucydides, 'iyo yakasimba ita sezvavanoda. , asi vasina simba vanoita zvavanofanira kuita.' Vamwe vakafungidzira kuti 'kutonga-kutonga' semutsara wesarudzo mazuva ano muWashington inonyatso hukama nekuzvarwa patsva kwe 'Pax Americana,' kana sezvandakambotaura kuti kubviswa kweMonroe Doctrine iyo yakatungamira US yekune dzimwe nyika mutemo kune. Latin America kuti izivise mushure mekutonga kweSoviet muna 1991 izvo chaizvoizvo Monroe Doctrine yenyika, kana kuonekwa kubva kune imwe maonero, NATO-IZATION yenyika yepashure peCold War.'
Mabhii akadaro anotsamwisa anoita seanotsanangura mhinduro yeNATO kuRussia 2022 kurwiswa kweUkraine, iyo kubva pazuva rekutanga yakabatwa neWest sechiitiko chakajeka cheCrime Against the Peace, inowanzoonekwa sehondo yehasha, uye yakaziviswa na. ruzhinji rwenyika nenzira yeUN General Assembly Resolution ES-11/1, Kurume 00, 2022, nevhoti ye122-5, ine makumi matatu nevaviri vasingabvumirwe kusanganisira China neIndia) kunyangwe pasina tsigiro yakafanana yekutevera kusvika pakushora. kurwiswa nenzira yekuisa zvirango, kupa zvombo, uye mauto ezvematongerwo enyika akatarisana nekukunda kwemauto pane kubvumirana mune zvematongerwo enyika kunoitwa kuburikidza nekumisa kurwa kunoteverwa nenhaurirano.
Izvo zvinoratidzika kune vakawanda, kunyanya kuMadokero, zviri pachena pakutanga kutarisa kuUkraine Hondo hazvina kunyatsojeka kana kutarisisa kwakatorwa. Pane nyaya yemamiriro ehondo isati yatanga yekutsamwisa kweUkraine neNATO pamwe nekodzero yeRussia yeveto yakadzika midzi muUN Charter, inosvika kuchiedza chakasvibira chakapihwa vanokunda muHondo Yenyika II pakushandiswa kwemauto epasi rose. kungwara kana zvasvika kunyaya dzerunyararo nechengetedzo, uye mukuita izvi vanofuratira zvisungo zveChata yekutsvaga kugadzirisa kune runyararo kwegakava repasi rose.
Kurwiswa kweUS/UK kusingafungirwe kuIraq muna 2003 kunoratidza iyi kaviri mwero inoratidzwa nemhinduro yekurwiswa kweRussia, sezvakaita hurumende yeNATO-kuchinja kupindira muLibya neEuro-America kutsigira kupindira kweSaudi muYemen uye vazhinji vemauto. mimwe mienzaniso inodzokera kuHondo yeVietnam. Mune mamwe mazwi, 'kutonga-kutonga' sechinhu chinoshanda chinoita sechinoreva kusava nemhosva pese apo US, vanobatana nayo neshamwari, pavanotanga 'hondo dzesarudzo' uye kuzvidavirira maererano nemutemo wepasirese kune vadzivisi vayo, kunyanya vakwikwidzi vayo vezvematongerwo enyika, avo vari. vakaramba mabhenefiti aidiwa ekodzero yavo yevhoti uye vane mhosva yekutevedzera mutemo wenyika dzepasi rose muhondo/runyararo domain sezvainounzwa muUN Charter. Muchokwadi, mutemo wepasirese hausi chidziviso kuUS/NATO zvine chekuita nekugadzira hondo, asi unoshanda segwara rehurongwa uye propaganda chishandiso chekushandisa kurwisa vavengi. Kunyepedzera kwakadaro mukuendesa chiremera chemutemo kunoonekwa zvakanyanya kunze kweMadokero semuenzaniso wakajeka wehunyengeri hwehunhu hunodzikisira kazhinji chishuwo chekutsiva mutemo wemutemo nechisimba muhukama pakati peMasimba Makuru munguva yenyukireya.
Izvi zvinonyanya kuratidzwa uku kwehuviri huviri uye hunyengeri hwetsika sezvinoratidzwa neimwe rondedzero yeBlinken yerudzi rwehurongwa hwenyika hwaanosimbisa akamiririra US. yenhoroondo mushure meHondo Yenyika II, uye nekudaro chokwadi chekuti Ukraine (neCrimea) muganho kuRussia, ine nguva yakareba yakapindirana ruzivo rwenhoroondo, hukama hwemadzinza, uye kusagadzikana kwenzvimbo zvinobatwa sezvisina basa. Chokwadi, maCuba kana maVenezuel, kana vekare vekuChile uye zvechokwadi veCentral America, vangaregererwa kana vakaseka zvakanyanya, vachipihwa nechisimba kuedza kweWashington kuramba ruzhinji rwenyika idzi ruremekedzo kwekodzero dzavo dzehutongi, kusanganisira kunyange kodzero isingabvisiki yekuzvimiririra. -kutsunga. Nzvimbo dzepesvedzero dzinobvumwa kuti dzinenge dzichishungurudza nharaunda dzine muganho, ingave dzakachengetwa neRussia kana United States, uye zvakadaro munyika isina kutongwa zvakanaka nzvimbo dzakadaro mune mamwe matunhu ematunhu anoita mabasa akakosha ekudzivirira hondo. Vanogona kudzikisira kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika kunogona kunzi kuregeredza nevashori kumatunhu akaganhurwa eruvengo kunogona kunzi nekupa mabhureki pakukwira panguva dzedambudziko. Mabvazuva/Madokero nzvimbo dzekupesvedzera kuchengetedza runyararo rwepasirese panguva dzematambudziko akanyanya eHondo Yemashoko, kunyanya panguva yeBerlin Crises(1950s), Soviet Interventions muEastern Europe (1956-1968), Cuban Missile Crisis (1961) .
Panzvimbo pekuparadzira nezvikamu zvepesvedzero vatungamiriri venguva yehondo veUS, UK, neUSSR muHondo Yenyika II vakaziva kunyangwe panguva yechikonzero chavo chakajairika kurwisa Naziism kuti kukwikwidzana kwemashure kwehondo pakati pevakakunda kuteedzera zvido zvavo zvenyika nekuwedzera pesvedzero yepfungwa, yezvematongerwo enyika, uye yehupfumi, kunyanya muEurope inogona kuita njodzi. Vatungamiriri ava, kunyange zvazvo vachitsigira pfungwa dzine utsinye, vakatsvaka zvibvumirano kuti vadzivise kunetsana kwapashure pehondo muEurope pamisangano yakatevedzana. Vatungamiriri veUS, USSR, neUK vakawana zvibvumirano, kunyanya muna 1945 kuYalta nePotsdam, izvo zvingave zvakaita zvakawanda kudzivirira kutsvedza muHondo Yenyika III kupfuura chokwadi cheUN Charter uye pamwe kunyangwe dzidziso yakakumbirwa yeMutual. Assured Destruction (kana kuti MAD inoreva the pathology of genocidal peacemaking in the nuclear age).
Izvi zvibvumirano zvenguva yehondo hazvina kushandisa zvakajeka mutauro wekunyomba wezvikamu zvesimba asi zvakasimbisa kupatsanurwa kune chekuita nekugara kwenyika dzeEurope dzaimbotongwa nenyika dzakakundwa dzefascist, nekutarisisa kwakapihwa Germany iyo yaionekwa seine mhosva uye ine ngozi. mutambi pakati peAxis Powers. Panyaya iyi, yoga pakati penyika dzeEurope, Germany yakakamurwa kuva East Germany neWest Germany, uye guta rayo guru reBerlin rakakamurwa zvine mukurumbira kuita West Berlin neEast Berlin. Kune yese yeEurope, Soviet Union yakapihwa basa rekugara uye kuvaka nyika muEast Europe nepo vakundi vakatora basa rakafanana muWestern Europe.
Mutauro wekupatsanura uyu hauna kurambidza ose ari maviri 'masimba makuru' kuti asapinda muhondo dzinoparadzirwa mumwe nomumwe muHondo Yemashoko. Zvakadaro chayakaita ndechekukurudzira kungwara kwepasirese nenzira yairemekedza iyi nguva yehondo yekuongorora kutonga. Kungwara uku kwaipesana zvakanyanya nemhinduro yekuzvimba kweveMadokero kukurwisa kweRussia muna 2023 kuUkraine, kwakasimudzirwa nekuzvidza diplomacy, kubvumirana kwezvematongerwo enyika, uye kutsvaga pachena kukundwa kweRussia kuitira kusimbisa mushure meCold War. unipolarity kana tasvika panyaya dzerunyararo nekuchengetedzeka. Pasina panikiro, mhepo yenguva yehondo muna 1944-45 yakabetsera kukukosha kwekutora matanho ekudzivirira kudzivirira kudzoka kwehondo huru yakarwiwa pamusoro pekutonga uye remangwana reEurope. Musangano wePotsdam wakatora nguva isingasviki vhiki bhomba reatomu risati radonhedzwa paHiroshima, Harry Truman achiudza Stalin kuti US yaive nechombo chikuru chaizokurumidzisa kukanda mapfumo pasi kweJapan, sezvayakaita.
Kunyange zvazvo yakaitwa isati yashandiswa bhomba reatomu iyi dhipatimendi yenguva yehondo yaitya kuziva kuti hondo yeramangwana yaizoparadza zvakanyanya kupfuura hondo mbiri dzekare dzepasirese. Nenzira iyi, mitsara yekukanganisa muEurope yakagadzwa mumamiriro etariro uye kutya, asiwo mukati memiganhu yakatarwa nehurumende-centrism uye geopolitical ambition, zvichikonzera kukurumidza kukakavara kunodzima tarisiro yekuchengeta kugarisana kwepasirese mushure mehondo, nokudaro zvichideredza tariro ye Kupfuura makwikwi ane njodzi huru yeSimba Guru zvekare. Izvi zvakatungamirira kuCold War bipolarity nemafungiro ayo akaomarara, echiuto, enzvimbo, uye ezvematongerwo enyika emakakatanwa akanyanya. Uye zvakadaro Hondo Yenyika III yakadziviswa, pasinei nekufona kwepedyo, mumakore 45 akatevera mushure mekupera kweHondo Yenyika II.
Pfungwa ye 'geopolitical fault lines' uye kunyangwe 'nzvimbo dzepesvedzero' haina kusimbiswa mukuita kana dzidziso yehukama hwenyika, asi kuvepo kwavo kwakakosha pakuchengetedza runyararo nekuchengetedzeka pakati peMasimba Makuru, uye nepasirese kazhinji. . Izvi zvine chekuita negeopolitical fault lines chikamu chimwe chikonzero chekutadza kwemutemo wepasirese kuve nekwaniso yekusimbisa nguva dzose miganho pamaitiro ekumanikidza ekutonga Masimba Makuru, achivapa de facto kusarangwa kwekuita zvinopfuura miganhu yemutemo. Mupfungwa iyi, geopolitical fault mitsara uye miganhu yenzvimbo dzakabvumiranwa inopa yakagadziridzwa inotsiva mutemo wepasirese nekumisikidza zvakabvumiranwa zviri pamutemo miganho pahunhu hunotsigirwa nezvisungo zveGreat Powers, izvo zvinozivikanwa kuti kana zvadarika zvinokonzeresa kusawirirana kwakanyanya, uye pamwe nenjodzi. hondo, pakati penyika dzine zvombo zvikuru pasi pose zvingaguma.
Chinhu chikuru ndechekuti mhinduro yeBiden/Blinken kuHondo yeUkraine uye kusimuka kweChina kuzvidza hungwaru hwezvematongerwo enyika uye hunyanzvi hwezvematongerwo enyika hwakabatsira kuponesa nyika kubva mukupisa kwakashata panguva yeCold War Era. Hongu, hondo dzinodhura dzakatanga munyika dzakapatsanurwa dzeKorea neVietnam, asi munzvimbo umo pakanga pasina mvumo yekupatsanurwa kwechinguvana kwakaiswa kubva kunze uye hurongwa hwekupokana uku kwainzi kupatsanurwa kwechinguvana kwaive kwakasiyana sekusiyana neGermany uko ivo. dzaive dzemhando yepamusoro. Pasinei neizvi, mumamiriro ezvinhu eKorea neVietnam, matanda akanga achiri akakwirira zvakakwana kuti US ityisidzire kushandiswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya kuchengetedza mamiriro ezvinhu, zvakanyanya kutyisa maererano neKorea, uye China ichiita pamusana pekuchengetedzwa kwemuganhu yakapinda. kunetsana.
Inobuda ichitaura kuti geopolitical fault mitsara uye nzvimbo dzekufurira zvirambidzo zvechipiri izvo kusakosha kunoratidza kusasimba kwemutemo wepasi rose uye UN. Kugadzirisa kusasimba uku kunofanirwa kukosheswa nehurumende uye vanorwira runyararo. Panguva ino, nzvimbo dzepesvedzero kucherechedzwa kwekuwanda, nhanganyaya yehurongwa hwepasirese hwakabatana, uye chiratidzo chekuti matambudziko akasiyana kune kunaka kweveruzhinji pasi rose anokonzerwa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze uye zvombo zvenyukireya zvechokwadi anoda 'hurongwa hwenyika hutsva' kuratidza zvinosungirwa kuti nyika dzinotungamira dziite zvakabatana kwete kupokana. Zvichida, Hondo yeUkraine ichiri kukwanisa kududzirwa kuburitsa shanduko yakadaro mumaonero nemaitiro.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta