[Prefatory Cherechedzo: Chinyorwa chiri pazasi chinyorwa chakagadziridzwa cheAugust 2, 2023 kubvunzurudzwa nemutori wenhau weIran, Javad Heiran-Nia. Zvinyorwa zvine mhinduro dzangu zvakatsikiswa mumagazini, Tahrir Bazaar [link: https://www.tahlilbazaar.com/news/235594/Professor-Falk-China-s-influence-in-the-Persian-Gulf-has-worried>] Chitarisiko chiri panhaurirano yedunhu yakarongwa munaGunyana 2023 pakati peIran neIraq nenhengo nhanhatu dzeGulf Cooperation Council (GCC), yakaumbwa muna 1981. tsiva kusawirirana nekugadzikana muMiddle East, uye mukuita kuwana rusununguko rwezvematongerwo enyika kubva kuUS/Israel hegemony. Kusimukira uku kunoratidzawo kuwedzera kubatanidzwa kweChina mudunhu, kunonyanya kuoneka mukusimudzira hukama pakati peIran neSaudi Arabia uye nekugadzira nzvimbo yezvematongerwo enyika kupa Saudi Arabia neOPEC kuzvivimba kunodiwa kumisikidza kugadzirwa kwemafuta nemitengo. hwaro hwezvinofarirwa nenyika pane kupindura kudzvinyiriro dzepasi rose dzinoitwa nenyika dzinotengesa oiri.]
1. Zvakarongwa kuita musangano uyu Gunyana padanho reMunyori Mukuru weUnited Nations nekutora chikamu kwemakurukota ekunze kwenyika sere dzeIran neIraq neGCC nhengo. Chirongwa cheSecretary General chenhaurirano yedunhu chinosanganisirwa muUN Security Council Resolution 598, izvo zvakakonzera kupera kwehondo yeIran-Iraq. Ndedzipi ongororo yako pamusangano uyu?
Zvinoshamisa kuti SC Res. 598 yakagamuchirwa muna 1987 haisati yaitwa makore anopfuura makumi matatu nemashanu gare gare. Tichitarisa kupindirana kwemakakatanwa, kunyanya Hondo yeGulf muna 35 uye US/UK mu1991 kurwisa Iraq, iyo yakaitwa pasina mvumo yeUN uye nekutyora kweUN Charter uku kunonoka kwenguva refu hazvishamisi. Kutyorwa kwaisanganisira kushandisa zvirango zvepasi rose, chisimba chisiri chekudzivirira, 'kuvhunduka uye kutya' maitiro. kupindira kwekuchinja kweutongi, kugara kwenguva refu, kunyimwa kodzero dzehuchangamire, kukundikana kwekuvaka nyika, zvinotarisika kuti kugadzirisa makakatanwa kwekare uku nekudzivirira hondo kuri kumutsiridzwa mune iyi mweya mutsva wakakomba, unoratidzika sekutsvaga kugadzikana. Panguva ino zvakaoma kutarisira zvichaguma kubva kumusangano waGunyana nekuda kwekukurudzira kwakasiyana kwevatori vechikamu zvakananga uye maitiro evatambi vepasi rese vane mukurumbira seUS neChina zvisati zvaburitswa. Chido chenyika sere dziri kutora chikamu kubvuma kuita nhaurirano yedunhu yekuongorora inosanganisira Iran neIraq pachayo ibudiriro inokurudzira, zvichiratidza kuti Israel, pamwe neUnited States 'ine simba redunhu rakaderera muna 2003 kupfuura kare nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakati wandei.
Zvakakodzera kutaura kuti nhaurirano yedunhu iri kuuya yakarongwa nenzira inounza Iran neIraq muhurukuro nenyika dzeGulf kwete maArab Middle East yese kana dunhu rose. Siria, Egypt, Rebhanoni, Palestine, Yemen yakabviswa (pamwe neIsrael), uye pamwe havana kumbokokwa. Iyi dhipatimendi nerutsigiro rwayo inogona zvakare kunzwisiswa sekutsiva vatambi vedunhu nevedunhu reUS uye kunyangwe China senzira inosarudzika yekuwana 'runyararo, rwakakwana, runoremekedzeka, uye rwakasimba' rwakataurwa kare mune ino. Security Council yekutanga yaive mhinduro kuhondo refu inoparadza pakati peIraq neIran. Chiri kukonzeresa kutaura kwakakura kudai kwehukama hune runyararo mumamiriro ezvinhu epanguva ino hazvina kuburitswa pachena panguva ino. Zvichajeka mukati memusangano munaGunyana chero zvinyorwa zvemisangano zvinoburitswa kana zvishoma. Chiziviso chekupedzisira chinopihwa, makurukota ezvekunze akaungana anosangana nevezvenhau chiitiko ichi chisati chaitwa uye chapera, uye vanobvumirana zvakanyanya kusangana zvakare kana kuramba vachisangana nguva nenguva.
Nyaya yekuti uyu musangano wemakurukota ezvekunze, uye vasiri vamiriri vepasi vepasi kana vakuru-vakuru venyika, inoratidza kuzvipira kwakasimba kuchiitiko ichi nehurumende dziri kutora chikamu. Panguva imwecheteyo, hapana tarisiro yekuti chiitiko chenhaurirano chimwe chete ichi, zvisinei kuti musangano wakabudirira zvakadii uye nekukunda Declaration, pachayo ichaburitsa mhedzisiro yekukurumidza kana inoshamisa. Inonyanya kufungidzirwa semavambo anovimbisa enguva refu yakanonoka yekuyananisa uye kugarisana.
Iran inomira kuti iwane zvakanyanya kubva pachiitiko ichi, uye chiitiko chinotevera, sezvo iri nhanho yekubatanidzwazve mune zvakajairika zvematongerwo enyika uye hupfumi hwedunhu uye kure nekuenderera mberi kwekuzviparadzanisa nevamwe. Saudi Arabia inogonawo kuwedzera kutendeseka nekuda kwekuedza kwayo kwazvino kutevedzera yakazvimirira dhipatimendi yedunhu, iyo dzimwe nguva yakasiya zviri pachena kubva kumitemo inosarudzwa neUS. kugadzirisa hukama hwayo neIsrael. Panguva ino, kufungidzira kwakadaro hakufaniri kutorwa zvakanyanya. Chokwadi chekuti musangano uyu urikuitika zvachose ibudiriro ine tariro tichitarisa kusawirirana kwemakumi emakore achangopfuura kuMiddle East, kunyanya mukudyidzana neIran. Chinhu chikuru chisingazivikanwe chinosanganisira mwero wekuti vatambi vasiri vedunhu nevekunze kwedunhu vanozokanganisa maitiro kubva kuseri kwezviitiko.
2. Mushure mekuvandudzwa kwehukama pakati peIran neSaudi Arabia, kuvandudzwa kwehukama pakati peIran nedzimwe nyika dzeArabu kunogona kuonekwa. Ko kugadzira nzira yenhaurirano yedunhu kungabudirira kusvika papi mumhepo yakadai?
Musangano uyu wakatsigirwa neUN unoratidzika kunge unoenderana nenguva ichangoburwa yekudyidzana pakati pehurumende iyo yakatanga kugadzirisa hukama hweIran neNyika dzeArab mushure memakumi emakore ekunetsana nekunetsana sezvaiitwa munguva yeHondo yeSyria yakatanga muna 2011. Musangano waGunyana unogonawo kutariswa hukama nekudzikira kweUS hegemonic ambitions, kugona, uye zvakakosheswa munzvimbo mudunhu, uye zvishoma nezvishoma kusimuka kwenzvimbo yekusimbisa kuwana kugadzikana. Imwezve fungidziro ndeyekudyidzana pakati pekutsvaga kweIsrael kugarisana neSaudi Arabia nedzimwe nyika dzeArab, uye iyi Iran/Iraq/Gulf inoenda kukugadzirisa hukama sehwaro hwekuwana kubatana uye kugadzikana kwemukati.
Izvo zvakakoshawo kusimuka kwezvimwe zvinonetsa mudunhu kuUS nevamwe, kusanganisira zvisiri zvezvematongerwo enyika mukati medunhu zvinokurudzira kutsiva hukama hwekupokana nazvo. vanoshandira pamwe pahwaro hwekutanga. Kushushikana kwakanyanya kuri kutoitika kuMiddle rese zvichikonzerwa nekudziya kwakanyanya kwepasirese, izvo zvaunza rekodhi kupisa kunokanganisa hutano uye kutyisidzira kurarama mune ramangwana mukati medunhu. Hutongi hwejekerere hwevatambi vedunhu hunoda zvakanyanya kupfuura nakare kose kuti vatarise kugona kwavo kugadzirisa matambudziko pane izvi zvitsva zvinotyisidzirwa nekugara zvakanaka kunobva mukusagadzikana kuri kuramba kuchikwira pakati pekuvandudza hupfumi hwazvino nenzvimbo yechisikigo. Mupfungwa iyi, mauto nehondo zvinova zvipingaidzo zvinodhura kubva mukuedza kwakarebesa kunonoka kuwana chengetedzo yenyika neyevanhu zvakapihwa zvakanyanya kuchinjika ecology nezvematongerwo enyika munyika yanhasi.
3. Zvichitevera kudzikira kwekuvapo kweAmerica mudunhu iri, kudyidzana mudunhu iri maererano nenyaya dzekuchengetedzwa kwakakosha kwenyika dzedunhu iri kwawedzera. Iwe unoongorora maitiro aya seane hunyanzvi kana zano?
Zvinoita sekuti kuchenjerera kuri mugwara pamusoro pezvazvino uye zvenguva yemberi zvematunhu evatambi vakuru vasiri veMiddle East. Haisi chete misiyano yezvematongerwo enyika iri kuongororwa zvakare pasi pemamiriro ezvinhu aripo, asiwo tarisiro yekuwana kugarisana murunyararo pakati peGulf monarchies neIslam Republic of Iran, zvisinei nekuramba vachiomerera kutsika dzinopikisa dzedzidziso yeIslam nekuita. Kumwe kusavimbika kuri kunetsa kana kubatikana kweAmerica munguva pfupi yapfuura kune imwe nzvimbo pasirese, kunyanya Ukraine neTaiwan, kwakapa vatungamiri veSaudi chivimbo chinodiwa kuti varambe vachibatana neIran nevamwe vari kunze kwemiganhu yayo vachiisa pamberi kune zvido zvenyika. Zvinokoshawo ndezvekuti kutambura kwenguva refu kubva muruvengo rwedunhu uye hutongi hwezvirango hwepasi rose hwakawedzera kufarira kweIran pane zvakanakira nhaurirano, kunyanya kana ichibvumidzwa kuve nhanho yekuyananisa uye hukama hunoenderana nezvido zvakafanana uye kubatsirana. Idzo mbiri Iran neSaudi Arabia dzingangove dzakakanganisika nekupikiswa kwadzo mumhirizhonga yezvematongerwo enyika muYemen, izvo zvingangove zvichidzika pasi pechido chavo chekutsiva kugadzikana kwekunetsana semusimboti wekuchengetedzeka kwenyika yavo mune ramangwana.
4. Kutora chikamu kweChina mudunhu iri - kunyangwe isina huwandu hwemauto uye chengetedzo panguva ino - zvichave nemhedzisiro yei pamatunhu?
Kuwedzera kwekuratidzira kweChina kunopesana nehutongi hwemauto hwakamboitwa neUnited States mudunhu kazhinji pachena mukutsigira zvinangwa zveSaudi neIsrael, sekuYemen kana nekuremekedza kurwira kodzero dzePalestine. Ndinotenda kuti kuedza kweChina kunoshamisa kuita nhaurirano pakati peRiyadh neTehran kwakonzera kusagadzikana muWashington. Ko iyo US inofanirwa kuyedza kudzoreredza zvishuvo zvayo zvehegemonic kuburikidza nekumanikidza diplomacy kana kuti iite vhezheni yayo yeyakajairwa uye kugadzikana-yakatarisana diplomacy mudunhu? Kusvika papi China inokurudzirwa nekunetseka kwayo zvine chekuita nekuchengetedzwa kwesimba uye kuvimbiswa kwekuwana mafuta eGulf? Uye kusvika papi China iri kutumira Hurumende yeUS meseji kuti iite kana ikapindira pane zvechinyakare Indo-Pacific kubatikana kweChina, ipapo China ichadzorera nekupinda munzvimbo dzave neUS kuvapo kwakasimba.
Sezvo ini ndichifunga Hondo yeUkraine sechikamu chekumisikidza kwezvematongerwo enyika mushure mekupera kweCold War mukutanga 1990s, zvakawanda zvinoenderana nekuti kuchengetedzeka kwepasirese kunochengetedza chimiro chayo cheunipolar chakabuda mushure mekuiswa kweSoviet muna 1992 kana kudzokera kune imwe mhando nyowani. bipolarity (zvichida China/Russia v. NATO/India) kana shanduko kuenda kumhando dzemultipolarity dzinotsvaga kuvimba zvakanyanya nemubatanidzwa wekugadzirisa matambudziko epasi rose nekuda kwenyika, uye kunyanya, kuchengetedzwa kwevanhu.
5. Hukama hwekutengeserana uye kudyidzana kwehupfumi hungashandiswa kusvika papi panhaurirano dzematunhu?
Ndinotenda kuti hukama hwakasimba hwekutengeserana pasi pemamiriro mazhinji hunoburitsa nzira dzakanaka dzekudyidzana mune zvehupfumi, izvo zvinosimbisa maitiro ekugadzirisa kusawirirana. Kusimba kwakadai kunovakawo hwaro hwezvematongerwo enyika hwekuwedzera mukutengeserana, kudyara mari, kushanya, kuchinjana kwetsika nezvinodiwa zvakafanana, zvichipa zvikomborero zvakafanana. Uye zvakadaro zviyero zvehupfumi zvakadaro hazvigone kufungidzirwa sezvine izvi zvakanaka mhedzisiro. Zvinoenderana nekuona kuenzana kwezvido zvakaoma uye kazhinji maonero anopesana, pamwe nekuvapo kana kusavapo kwe geopolitical pressure. Zvakaoma kutaura pamusoro penyaya yakadai, iyo inogara ichienderana nemamiriro ezvinhu, ayo anogara achichinja.
Nezvikonzero zvambotaurwa, zviri kuitika mudunhu nepasi rose parizvino zvinotsigira kudzikamisa kudyidzana uye kuwedzera kwehukama hwehupfumi hunobatsira pakati penyika dzakapedza hafu yezana remakore rapfuura kana kupfuura mukurwisana kusina zvibereko, kunodhura, nengozi. Mhedzisiro yezviitiko zvakadaro pahukama neIsrael, kunyanya tichifunga kuti kuviriswa kwemukati menyika iyi kunoramba kuri kukuru, asi kwakakosha, kusingazivikanwe. Kana hurumende yeNetanyahu inonyanyisa ikakwanisa kubata masimba inogona kuyedza kukanganisa pfungwa kubva mukunetsana kwemukati nekudzoreredza kubatana kwenyika kuburikidza nekuita zviito zvinowedzera nemaune kusawirirana kwedunhu, kunyanya neIran, zvichitsigirwa nekutaura kwekupokana kuti kuchengetedzwa kwenyika yeIsrael kuri panjodzi. Hazvina mubvunzo kana mutambo uyu wekare wekutamba uchizoshanda pasi pemamiriro azvino, asi kufamba munzira kunogona kuve nengozi zvakadaro. Zvakare, zvine njodzi uye zvinounza matambudziko edunhu uye ekuwedzera-regional kungave kuitiswa kweannexationist uye imwe-nyika zviono padivi rerusaruraganda, settler colonial, Jewish exclusionary state of Israel.
ZNetwork inopihwa mari chete kuburikidza nerupo rwevaverengi vayo.
dhoneta