[Prefatory Cherechedzo: Iyi idzokororo yechinyorwa chakaburitswa se #534 muna Chivabvu 14, 2018 muTRANSCEND Media Service ine zita rekuti "World Order Mushure meCold War." Ichi chinyorwa chinokurukura hukama hunogona kuitika mune ramangwana rezvematongerwo enyika hunogona kupa hutungamiriri hwepasirese hunobatsira, hunodiwa zvakanyanya kana zvimhingamupinyi zvazvino zvepasirese zvichisangana nedivi rino renjodzi.]
Hondo Yemashoko yakapera nekukasira uye zvinoshamisa, kwete chete kutangirwa neGorbachev kupfava kwechimiro chepfungwa asi kupa kwake kupasirese kweimwe nzira inosimudzira kune geopolitical kukwikwidzana uye predatory neoliberal globalization: kudzivirira hondo uye kuchengetedzeka kwakafanana, pamwe neshanduko dzemukati dzedemocratizing dzakajekeswa. nemashoko okuRussia glasnost uye perestroika. Pakutanga, zvaiita sevanonzwira tsitsi vacherechedzi kuchinja kwesocialism kwakafanana nepurogiramu yekuvandudza iyo Franklin Roosevelt akanga ashandisa muUnited States kuedza kununura nyika kubva pakadzika kweKuderera Kukuru. Kushaya mukana wegoridhe weshanduko yepasi rose Madokero akatarisa nemufaro wekukunda sezvo Soviet system yakaparara. Panzvimbo yekukweretesa mutungamiri mutsva uyu muMoscow ruoko rwekubatsira United States yakaita zvese zvaigona kuita kukurumidza kuparara kweSoviet. Yakasiyana sei, uye zviri nani, nyika ingadai yakave dai Washington yakatsvaga kugadzira Gorbachev's Kremlin mukugadzirisazve kurongeka kwenyika pamwe nemitsara yehunhu!
Uyu mukana wakarasika wekushandura bipolarity yakaipa yenguva yeCold War mugwara rebipolarity yakanaka yakaratidza kukundikana kwakakosha kwenhoroondo yekufungidzira kwetsika nezvematongerwo enyika. Izvo zvakakosha zvebipolarity yakanaka ingadai yakabatanidza shanduko yehurongwa hwehondo uye hutongi hwehupfumi sehwaro hwehurongwa hwenyika. Izvi zvinosanganisirwa nekumbundirwa kwekuchengetedzwa kwakafanana padanho renyika dzakazvimiririra, kuchengetedzwa kwevanhu sechikamu chenharaunda, uye kuvimba nekuita mutemo kwakasimba mukudyidzana kwakatarisana nematambudziko epasirese akadai sezvombo zvenyukireya, shanduko yemamiriro ekunze, hurombo hwakanyanya, uye. kutama.
Mhedzisiro yeCold War yakaratidza nzira dzinoverengeka dzekusashanda zvakanaka: kutadza kwakaitwa neAmercan-inotungamirwa West kuziva uye kuita pane imwe hurongwa hwepasi rose hwaishandira kufarira kwevanhu pane kuramba uchitsvaka geopolitical ambitions nekuvimba nekumanikidzira diplomacy, hupfumi hwenyika husina kudzorwa zvakakwana, uye simba remauto. Nenjodzi dzakasiyana siyana dzepasirese dziri kuuya, zvine kukurumidza kupfuura nakare kose kuongorora kana kuchine mukana wekumuka kwemaitiro akanaka ehurongwa hwenyika. Mhedziso pfupi yezvakakanganisika mushure mekupera kweCold War inoshanda senhanganyaya yekuongorora zvingagadziriswa, kunyangwe zvisingaite zvingaitike pasina kuviriswa kweshanduko yepasi rose mukutsigira hutongi hwepasirese.
Mhinduro Yakakundikana: Unipolarity
Hondo Yemashoko payakapera, imwe nguva yairatidza kuti ndiyo nzira yakanyatsojeka yemamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika epasi rose mushure mekuguma kusingarwadzi kweCold War bipolarity, nerombo rakanaka ichiitika pasina hondo huru kana kurwisana kwevanhu. United States kunyangwe mukana wemukana wakavhurika wakafara, wakaita seusina kuzviona, uye panzvimbo pacho wakavaka zambuko rekuenda kupi napo rinonzi 'full spectrum dominance.'
Zvinoratidzika mukutarisa kuti US yakatambura neyakaoma mitezo yekukunda mushure mekudonha kweSoviet, inokudzwa mune dzakasiyana siyana dzakapfupikiswa nhoroondo dzekukunda kwayo, zvine simba zvakanyanya, pamwe, naFrancis Fukuyama's. Kuguma Kwenhoroondo. Vatungamiriri vemasangano akatsigira mhinduro yakatungamirwa neAmerica pakurwiswa kweIraq nekutorwa kweKuwait muna 1990, kunyanya nerutsigiro rwechibvumirano chekuchengetedza runyararo kuUN, uye chiziviso chakarira chaGeorge HW Bush che'hurongwa hwenyika hutsva.' Akatora chishuwo ichi pane zvinoonekwa mukana mutsva wekubatana kweP-5 pasi pemutungamiri weUS uye basa rinoshanda reUN, pakupedzisira richiita sekuzadzisa zvinangwa zveChata. Nehurombo, tariro idzi hadzina kumbobvira dzafungwa, uye dzakaratidza mune chero chiitiko kuve kwenguva pfupi.
The Bush, Sr. Hutungamiri hwakaratidza nekukasira kusazvipira kwayo pakubuda kwehurongwa hwenyika hutsva hunopfuura mukana uye wenguva pfupi weiyo label kubatsira kuunganidza kubvumirana kweIraq kutsigira nzira inopokana zviri pamutemo kuhondo. Pfungwa yekuti uku ndiko kwaive kutanga kwemhando dzakakomba dzehutongi hwepasi rose mushure meHondo Yemashoko yakanga isipo mukufungidzira kwezvematongerwo enyika kweAmerica. Asi kuderera kwechikonzero chekushanda kwemauto kwakakunda kukunda nyore muGulf War kwakakunda iyo yainzi Vietnam Syndrome, nokudaro kudzoreredza chivimbo cheUS mukukoshera kwesimba rayo rehondo. Kwete kubva pakukundwa kwekuzvininipisa muVietnam kwaive nekutenda kweveruzhinji kuti muchina wehondo unogona kukunda nekukurumidza munguva uye nemari inogamuchirwa.
Hutungamiri hwaBill Clinton hwakange husisakwanise kuumba mhinduro inovaka yepasi rose kune zvitsva zvehupenyu hwepasirese sezvaive zvakaita mukuru Bush. Clinton akasimudzira maonero ehudzvinyiriri ehurongwa hwenyika hutsva nekupa pamberi pekubudirira kwemari yepasi rose vachirasikirwa nekugara zvakanaka kwevanhu. Ichi chinangwa chekufambisa kutenderera kwemari yepasi rose chakabatsira mukushanduka kwakashata kwekusimbisa kwepfungwa kubva kuKeynesian kuenda kuNeoliberal economics, zvichiwedzera kuregeredza kunetseka kwemhedzisiro inokuvadza yevanhu yemisika isina kudzorwa, kugadzira nhanho yemhando dzakasiyana dzematambudziko. Kuchinja uku kune neoliberalism ndiko kwakanyanya kukonzera kusaenzana kwakanyanya kuri kukanganisa mirairo yemukati yeruzhinji yenyika dzakawanda, pamwe nekusatarisisa kudziya kwepasirese. Kusarudzika kunozoitika kunobatsira kutsanangura kusimuka kwevamiriri vakasarudzwa vakasununguka vane mukurumbira wakatsamira paruvengo rusina mufungo kuhurongwa hwakagadzwa.
Zvichida mugumisiro unosuruvarisa wemhinduro dzakadaro kusvika kumagumo eHondo Yemashoko wakanga uri mukana wakarasika wekushandisa nzira mbiri huru dzehutungamiri hwakanaka hweUnited States: kunyatsokurudzira nhaurirano dzepasi rose kuti dzibudirire kubviswa kwezvombo zvenyukireya uye mamwe maitiro ekubvisa mauto; nekusimbisa UN nekuwedzera nhengo dzisiri dzeWestern zvachose kuSecurity Council kuratidza mamiriro matsva ezvematongerwo enyika, pamwe nekuisa veto kumamiriro ekuzvidzivirira.
Ma1990 akawana kuderera kwechinguva muhukama hwepasirese asi pasina kuperekedza kuvandudzwa kwemaitiro nekusimbisa masangano epasirese kusimudzira zvido zvepasirese. Hutungamiri hweUS hwaive hwakanangana nenarcissistic geopolitics isina kunyange yekuzvifarira yenguva refu chiratidzo. Kupera kwerudzi urwu kwakawedzera kukwidziridzwa nekusimuka kweneoconservative pesvedzero muUS yaifarira kuvimba nehukuru hwemauto kusimudzira zvido zvehurongwa, kunyanya kuMiddle East.
Mishandling Mega-Terrorism Mushure me9/11
Kurwiswa kwe9/11 paWorld Trade Center nePentagon sezviri pachena raive basa remutambi asiri wehurumende, achizivisa zviitiko zviviri zvakakura zvine chekuita nechimiro nemaitiro ehurongwa hwepasirese: chekutanga, kudzoreredzwa kwehukama hwepasirese, izvo zvaireva kusimudzira hukuru hwepasirese. zvematongerwo enyika pamusoro pehupfumi sevector ye geopolitical behaviour; chechipiri, kusarudza kuti mhinduro yakakodzera pakurwiswa inofanira kuumbwa nehondo paradigm pane kuparwa kwemhosva, iyo yaimbotembwa nayo kare nehurumende pakubata nehugandanga.
Mune imwe nzira, hondo yehugandanga yaiva yekuwedzera kwekusawirirana, kunyanya kupiwa pfungwa dzezvematongerwo enyika dzakataurwa naGeorge W. Bush kuti, 'iwe unesu, kana kuti nemagandanga.' Pamusoro pekuda uku kwekubatana nedivi rehugandanga, pane pfungwa yekuti hutongi hwenzvimbo yenyika chero ipi zvayo hunogona kutyorwa zviri pamutemo kana hurumende yayo ikatadza kana kusada kubvisa magandanga muvhu rayo. Iko hakuna nzvimbo dzakachengeteka kana nyika yese ikava nhandare yehondo.
Sarudzo yemutungamiri weBush Jr. yekubata kurwiswa kwa9/11 se'hondo' pane 'mhosva' yakonzera kushushikana kwakawanda pamusoro pekuderera kwebudiriro, uye kusiiwa kwemutemo wenyika dzakawanda uye vanhuwo zvavo. Mazita aAbu Ghraib naGuantanamo anoshevedzwa zvakakodzera kuti aratidze zvakakanganisika mumhinduro kuna 9/11, tichitarisa kuyedza kwekutanga kuratidza kupokana sekukanda magandanga akaipa kune vane nyasha.
Sekutadza kwekutanga kutora mukana wekupera kweCold War, kurwiswa kwa9/11 kwaive mumwe mukana wakarasika wekusimudzira kurongeka kwenyika nekugadzira hutongi hwekuchengetedzwa kwakafanana. Hutongi hwakadai hunogona kugadziridzwa kuti hutonge mhosva dzezvematongerwo enyika dzisiri dzehurumende uye masangano ezvematongerwo enyika ane mhirizhonga kuburikidza nekushandira pamwe kwemapurisa ehurumende, sekutsigirwa mumamiriro ezvinhu akasiyana nemauto nemauto.
Mhinduro ye9/11 nenzira yehondo dzakakakavadzana uye dzinodhura dzepasirese dzakatadza kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvavo zvekuchengetedza kunyangwe kuzvipira kukuru kwemauto kwakanetesa mutemo wepasirese, UN, uye multilateralism kazhinji. Yakakanganisawo zvakanyanya kunaka uye mukurumbira wehupenyu hwegutsaruzhinji munharaunda dzakasununguka nekudzvanyirira kwayo kodzero dzevanhu nezvematongerwo enyika.
Ipo iyo US yaive ichiita zvechiuto adventurism panguva iyo hondo yairasikirwa nenhoroondo yayo, China, India, Brazil, Russia yaive ichiwana pesvedzero uye ichifambira mberi. G-20 yakavambwa kuti igadzire nzvimbo inomiririra yemitemo yehupfumi hwenyika asi kushaikwa kwayo kwemasangano uye chiremera chimwe chemamiriro ezvinhu anovhiringa ayo anoratidza kusakwana uye kusingawirirani kwemitemo yenyika dzehupfumi hwenyika. States, inotungamirwa neUnited States ichiwedzera kuvimba nehurongwa hwehupfumi hwenyika huchiunza njodzi dzinowedzera dzehondo dzekutengeserana uye nzira dzekudzivirira dzekudzivirira. Izvo zvakabuda inzira isingashande yehuwandu hwehuwandu hunosiya panjodzi zvirongwa zvekutengeserana, kudyara, nekusimudzira. Nechekuchengetedzeka kwepasi rose zvinoita sekunge kuri kubuda mubatanidzwa wemauto ekubatana pasina budiriro yezvematongerwo enyika, ichiratidza kusavimbika maererano nehutsinye hwakadzokororwa uye kuponda, kunofananidzirwa nemhinduro dzinonzwisa tsitsi kuHondo yeSyria kubvira 2011 uye kutadza kuchengetedza vanhu. Gaza iri pasi pekushungurudzwa kakawanda neIsrael mukati memakore mazhinji.
Dzimwe nzira dzeAnemic Multipolarity
Rudzi rweanemic multipolarity (sekukanganiswa neunipolar unipolar militarism) ichangobva kutsanangurwa haina kugadzikana kana paine kusawirirana kuri kuwedzera uye kukuvadzwa kunokonzerwa nekusaenda zvakakwana kumatambudziko aripo epasi rose. Sezvinoita sezviri pachena, ingave imwe nzira yekugadzira ichabuda kana kuti panogona kunge paine nhevedzano yemaitiro uye zviitiko zvine chekuita nekuipa kwemamiriro ezvinhu kubva kune imwe kana akawanda eaya asina kusangana epasi rose matambudziko. Nzira dzinonyanya kujeka dzedzimwe nzira dziri pasi peaya mamiriro hutungamiriri hune mutsa kune multilateralism kana bipolarity. Fungidziro iri pano ndeyekuti United States iri pasi paTrump, seyakatsigirwa neCongress uye isina hunhu, haichakurudzirwi kana kukwanisa kuita rudzi rwehutungamiriri hwayakanga yatora kubva 1945, zvinobvumwa kuti nguva dzose iine mibairo yakasanganiswa kubva pamaonero ehunhu. values.
Chii chingave multilateralism ine hutungamiriri hwakanaka hunorevei?China yakaratidza kugona kunoshamisa kwesimba rakapfava rekuwedzera kwesimba pamwe nekukwira kukuru kwekukura kwehupfumi munhoroondo yese. China inoita kunge ine ruzivo rwakakura uye rwechokwadi nezvekudiwa kwekugadzirisa matambudziko epasi rose uye kutonga kwekudziya kwepasirese, mutemo wenyukireya, uye hupfumi hwenyika. Kunyangwe ichigona kuburitsa mhando yepasirese
hutungamiri hunodiwa panguva ino yenhoroondo mubvunzo usina kupindurwa. Sezvinonyanya kuvimbisa Inotevera mutungamiri wepasi rose China achada kukunda zvipingamupinyi zvakawanda: chokwadi chekuti chiChinese hachitaurwe kunze kwemiganhu yayo; China haina mari inotengeswa pasi rose; China ine ruzivo rushoma pasi rose, seyakasiyana neredunhu, diplomacy; China ine nhoroondo yakashata yekodzero dzevanhu kumusha; uye dzidziso yechiChinese, pachayo pari zvino isinganzwisisike, haina vateveri vazhinji vekunze kunyangwe kuita kwayo ichiita sekunge kukurudzirwa.
Pamwe inguva isati yakwana kuverenga United States seyakabuda mumutambo wehutungamiriri. Zvinoita sezvingabvira, pamwe zvingangodaro, kuti hutungamiriri hwaTrump, neimwe nzira kana imwe, hucharambwa neimwe nzira kunze kwenjodzi yepasi rose, ndiko kuti, nekuramba sarudzo, kupomerwa mhosva, kusiya chigaro. Zvinoitawo sekunge kuenderera mberi kwekudzokera shure kuTrumpism kuchaitika muUnited States uye pamwe kune imwe nzvimbo, pamwe nekurambwa kweazvino mafungu epasi rose ekusarudzika nyika. Mafungiro matsva epasi rose anogona kugashira kumutsiridzwa kwekusika kwemarudzi akawanda, simba reUN nemamwe masangano epasi rose, uye kuratidza tsigiro yehunyoro huzhinji hwepasirese hurongwa hwehurongwa husina kunyanyonangana nezvido zvenyika, uye zvakanyanya kuenderana nekusimudzira kwepasi rose. nezvido zvevanhu.
Musiyano werudzi urwu rwemamiriro ehurongwa hwepasirese hune tariro hunobva kumamiriro ezvinhu ezvematongerwo enyika epasi rose anokonzerwa nekucherechedzwa kwakafanana kwezvinetso zvechimbichimbi. Mamiriro ezvinhu akadaro angatungamirira kune chingadanwa zvakanaka bipolarityumo United States neChina dzinodyidzana zvakanyanya sezvo mibatanidzwa munguva yehondo yakagadzira hukama hwakasimba hwekushandira pamwe kwenguva pfupi huri hukama huripo kare vanopikisa vezvematongerwo enyika. Izvi ndizvo zvakaitika kune anti-fascist coalition. Bipolarity yakadai yaizobatsirana nemultilateralism nekuisa pfungwa pakugadzira mitemo munzvimbo mbiri idzi dzehurumende dzechiremera, chinzvimbo, pesvedzero, uye kugona. Izvo zvaizowedzera kusvika kwavo kwazvino kusvika pakukomberedza zvakajairika uye kuchengeteka kwevanhu masisitimu ayo zvishoma nezvishoma akapa hurongwa hwehondo kusashanda uye kusatendeseka kuvimba nekumanikidza geopolitics. Munguva iyi chengetedzo yaizowedzera kuongororwa kubva pamaonero ekodzero dzevanhu, kururamisira kwepasi rose, kuenzana kwebudiriro, uye kuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza.
Kudzokorodza kwakadaro kwekuumbwa kwemitemo munzvimbo yekuchengetedzwa kwaizowana rudzi rutsva rwematanho maviri enyika kurongeka: (1) hutungamiri hunoitwa nekushanda pamwe chete kweChina neUnited States; (2) Kugadzira mitemo yepasirese uye bumbiro revanhu rinotevedzwa nenyika, sekufurirwa uye kurongeka nevatambi vemagariro pasi rese.
Mashoko Okupedzisira
Tiri kurarama munguva yekusagadzikana kwakanyanya, kunyangwe zviri kuramba zvichikanganiswa nematambudziko anooneka ehurongwa hwenyika. Mamiriro ezvinhu aripo iye zvino ane dambudziko, akagadziridzwa nekutaura kwakasiyana-siyana kwekusimudzira uye kusarura nyika iyo isingatarisirwe nekusawirirana nematambudziko epasi rose. Izvo hazvina kugadzikana zvakanyanya nekuti zvimhingamipinyi zviri pahurongwa hwepasirese zvinoda nekuchimbidza mwero wekubatana uye hutungamiriri hwepasirese kana dambudziko rinenge richitevera. Tinotarisira zvakanakisisa, kunyanya kusimba uye kuunganidza masangano ehurumende pamwe chete nekumukazve kwevatungamiri vane zviratidzo zvevatambi vehurumende nevasiri vehurumende vane hanya nekugadzira pamusoro pekusangana nematambudziko epasi rose.
Chii zvematongerwo enyika zvinogoneka panguva ino hazvizoiti. Vanhu venyika vanokodzera uye vanoda zvematongerwo enyika zvinoziva kuti chii zvakafanira uye anoshuva uye anoita kuti awane zviri chinodiwa. Danho rokutanga mugwara rakarurama kubvuma basa rinokosha raigona kuitwa nokuvimba kukuru mune zvinganzi. fungidziro yeruzhinji.
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