Atolankhani aku US adalengeza kuti chisankho cha Iraq pa Marichi 7 chikutsimikizira kulanda dziko la US kuvota kusanathe. Koma zoona zake n’zosiyana. Michael Schwartz, wolemba Nkhondo Yopanda Mapeto: Nkhondo ya Iraq mu Context adalankhula ndi a Eric Ruder a SocialistWorker.org pazomwe atolankhani sanamvetse - ndikuyika zomwe zachitika posachedwa m'dera lalikulu.
AKULU a ku QUS akulengeza za chisankho cha Iraq pa Marichi 7, 2010, ngati chipambano cha demokalase ku Middle East. Koma boma la Iraq la Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki lidawonetsa kufooka kwake, chisankho chisanachitike, komanso pazotsatira.
Michael Schwartz. ZOONA ndi chisankho chamthunzi kwathunthu. Pokonzekera chisankho, panali kusamvana kosangalatsa, tiyeni titchule, kumbali ya boma la Maliki ponena za chisankho ichi. Kumbali ina, adakhala chaka chatha kapena kuposerapo akuyesera kukopa magulu am'deralo omwe akuganiza kuti angalole boma, lomwe liri ku Green Zone kokha, kuti lipemphere kumadera ambiri a Sunni ndi Shia omwe adakwiyira boma lalikulu komanso ku US
Panthawi imodzimodziyo, anayamba kumanga atsogoleri ambiri a gulu la Sunni Awakening, pofuna kuti akhazikitse zinthu ziwiri zomwe utsogoleri wa m'deralo umene unayambira m'madera a Sunni udzakhala ndi chisankho pakati pa kupita kundende kapena kumuthandiza. .
Chakumapeto kwa kampeni yachisankho, Maliki adayesa njira ina - kulepheretsa anthu omwe akufuna zisankho, makamaka atsogoleri a Sunni. Izi zidathetsedwa ndi ziwonetsero zosiyanasiyana - kuphatikiza, mwachiwonekere, kuchokera ku US, zomwe zidawona kuti kuyankha kunali koopsa kwambiri. Ngakhale kuti mtsogoleri wamkulu wa Sunni sanayenerere, mgwirizano womwe unaphatikizapo mtsogoleri wotsutsa wodziwika kwambiri wosasankhidwa adatuluka pachisankho ndi mavoti ochuluka.
Funso limodzi lofunika kufunsa, ndipo sindikudziwa yankho lake, limachokera ku kuba kwachisankho komwe kunachitika ku Afghanistan. Maliki akadakondadi kukhala ndi chigonjetso chotere, ngakhale chitabedwa, koma zikuwoneka kuti palibe kuthekera kochita upandu wotere, chifukwa panali zolimbikitsa zokwanira kutero. Popeza kuti US mwina sichinali cholepheretsa, kulephera kwake kuyesa chinyengo chambiri kuyenera kuwonetsa mphamvu za otsutsa.
Pali mitundu yosiyanasiyana yotsutsa yomwe ilipo ku Iraq panthawiyi-ndi zigawenga za Sunni zomwe sizimangokhala; kukana kowoneka bwino kwa mabungwe m'madera ena a Sunni ndi ma Shia ambiri nthawi zambiri amakhala m'maboma ang'onoang'ono; ndi zomwe zingatchedwe kutsutsa kwanyumba yamalamulo, opangidwa ndi aphungu omwe amaimira zofuna za m'deralo zomwe adawasankha, choncho ali okonzeka kulimbana ndi Achimereka ndi Maliki - ngakhale mphamvu zawo kuti akwaniritse zambiri kuposa kutsutsa pakamwa ndizochepa.
Zosawoneka bwino ndi kukana kwa mabungwe komwe kumakhala m'malo osiyanasiyana a boma la dziko - makamaka makampani amafuta adziko lonse, ndi mabungwe omwe afooketsedwa koma osachotsedwa omwe amayang'anira nkhani zotere pamagetsi ndi chitetezo chamkati; ntchito yogwira ntchito, yomwe yatsitsimula ndipo ikugwira ntchito kwambiri; ndi magulu osiyanasiyana a mafuko ndi achipembedzo amene saloŵerera m’ndale zadziko kapena mbali zina zake.
Ndikuganiza kuti tiyenera kunena kuti kukana kotereku komwe kumayandama kudera la Iraq kukukhudza kwambiri machitidwe a boma ndi ntchito. Pafupifupi zinthu zonsezi zimatsutsana ndi ndondomeko zamakono za kayendetsedwe ka Maliki, zonse zokhudzana ndi mafuta - nkhani zazikulu ku Iraq - ndi momwe zimakhalira ku US.
Boma la US silinagwirizane ndi zoyesayesa za Maliki pokonza chisankho, koma silinawatsutsenso. Ndipo akuluakulu aku America avomereza mosabisa zotsatira za chisankho chomwe chikuwoneka kuti chikulowera m'malo mwa Maliki ndi utsogoleri watsopano wosachezeka ndi chikoka cha US.
Omwe apambana modzikuza amafuna kuti palibe kusintha kwa njira yochotsera. Iwo akufuna kuti maboma asinthe kwambiri. Ndipo iwo - mosasamala - adalembetsa kukana kwawo ku malonda amafuta chifukwa chokhala ndi makampani amafuta apadziko lonse lapansi. Inde, a US akudandaula kuti makonzedwe awa sakukwanira mokwanira.
Chifukwa chake zikuwoneka ngati zotsatira za chisankho zibweretsanso vuto lina lachikhumbo cha US kuti Iraq ikhale likulu la US hegemony ku Middle East.
Koma zovuta izi sizingayandikire zomwe asitikali aku US akuti amawopa: "kuwonongeka" kwadongosolo. Kumbukirani kuti boma ili silinakhalepo kunja kwa Green Zone. Zilizonse zomwe zingachitike mkangano udzakhala wokhudza mfundo za Green Zone zomwe zimangokhudza dziko lonselo, kupatulapo mfundo zokhudzana ndi mafuta, zomwe zingatheke - ngati zitulutsa ndalama zatsopano - zimabweretsa chuma chomwe chingakhudze kwambiri. moyo watsiku ndi tsiku.
Choncho ndizovuta kwambiri kudziwa zotsatira za chisankho. Ndithudi, padzakhala mkangano pa mtundu wa boma limene lidzakhazikitsidwe. Ndipo zitha kuonekeratu kuti Maliki adzakhala mtsogoleri wa boma, ngakhale ambiri a nyumba yamalamulo angakonde kumuchotsa. Chotsatira chomaliza chidzakhala chotsatira chazandale zamalonda zamahatchi munyumba yamalamulo.
Ndikuganiza kuti zenizeni za Iraq m'zaka zisanu zikubwerazi zidzatsimikiziridwa kwambiri ndi zomwe zikuchitika pansi kusiyana ndi zomwe zimachitika ku nyumba yamalamulo, kapena zomwe zagamulidwa ku Green Zone kumene Maliki ndi utsogoleri wa diplomatic waku America amakhala.
Q. POYAMBA, atolankhani ambiri adalengeza kuti chisankhochi chinali chipambano chachikulu kwa otsatira a Moktada al Sadr. The New York Times anathamanga chidutswa chodzaza ndi mantha ponena za "kusadziŵika" kwa Sadr, koma ndithudi nkhawa yawo yeniyeni sikunali kusadziŵika kwake, koma monga momwe nkhaniyo inaneneranso, "kukhazikika kwake ... kutsutsa maubwenzi aliwonse ndi United States." Patatha milungu iwiri, nkhani yatsopano idawonekera: kulimbana komwe kukukulirakulira pakati pa Maliki ndi Allawi, chidole cha US yemwe adakhala ku ukapolo kwa zaka pafupifupi 30 asanabwerere kudzakhala nduna yayikulu ya boma lokhazikitsidwa ndi US A. Nkhani ya Los Angeles Times ngakhale adagwira mawu mkulu wina waku US yemwe sanatchulidwe yemwe adati sizinganenedwe kuti Maliki atha kulengeza kuti ndi lamulo lankhondo.
Michael Schwartz. ZOWONJEZERA ZA MALIKI zoti alengeze zankhondo zikuwoneka ngati zopanda pake kwa ine. Kunena zowona, iye wakhazikitsa kale malamulo ankhondo, malingana ndi mmene iye analolera kutumiza asilikali m’malo osiyanasiyana kuti athetse mikangano. Ngati akanatha kuletsa kusagwirizana, akadayesetsa kutero chisankho chisanachitike, popeza wakhala akudziwa kwa miyezi ingapo kuti chisankho chachilungamo chidzapangitsa kuti mgwirizano wake ukhale wocheperako poyerekeza ndi ambiri omwe akufunikira kuti apitirize kulamulira.
Nanga n’cifukwa ciani tsopano angasankhe kugwilitsila nchito malamulo ankhondo ndi kuloŵelelapo m’magulu ankhondo kuposa mmene wakhala akugwilitsila nchito? Chifukwa chake ndikuganiza kuti izi zitha kukhala zolondola.
Kumbali inayi, zolankhula zake zitha kuwonetsa kumbuyo kwa zochitika zomwe US akuyendetsa Izi zitha kukhala zoyamba - kapena kupitilizabe - kuyesa kulungamitsa kupitiliza kulowererapo kwa asitikali aku US, kupitilira tsiku lomaliza la Disembala 2011, pomwe asitikali onse aku US akuyenera. kukhala kunja.
Tikudziwa kuti utsogoleri mu ulamuliro wa Obama sukufuna kuchotsa asilikali onse a US. Akufuna kukhala ndi asilikali pafupifupi 50,000 kumeneko, chomwe chinali cholinga choyambirira kuyambira nkhondo isanayambe. Akufuna kukhala ndi maziko asanu okhalitsa, omwe adamangidwa kale ndikugwira ntchito popanda chizindikiro cha kuchepa. Akufuna kukhala ndi akazembe a 2,000 mkati mwa Iraq, okhala mu kazembe wa madola mabiliyoni ambiri omwe ali ku Green Zone, akuyendetsa likulu la Ufumu wa America ku Middle East. Ndipo kotero mwina iyi ikhala nthawi yomwe lonjezo lochotsa kwathunthu lidzasinthidwa.
Nthawi yonseyi, pamene funsoli linaperekedwa kwa akuluakulu a asilikali a ku America ngati asilikali a US ku Iraq akufunikira kwambiri ku Afghanistan, yankho linali, "Ayi, sangathe kuchoka. 'Pangani vuto latsopano."
Kwa ine, nkhani ya izi inali yoti zisankho zitha kubweretsa zotsatira zomwe sizikhala zovomerezeka ku US, ndipo angafunike asitikali kuti asinthe zotsatira zake. Ndiye zikhoza kukhala kuti tikamva Maliki akunena kuti, "Ndiyenera kulengeza lamulo lankhondo" komanso "Allawi ndi wosalamulirika" komanso "Sangathe kulamulira anthu ake" ndi "Suni ayambanso kumenyana." ," atha kukhala kuwonetsa kwa oyang'anira a Obama kudandaula za zotsatira zoyipa zomwe amawopa nthawi zonse.
Kulengeza lamulo lankhondo kukakhala, ngakhale kuli tero, sitepe lomwe silinachitikepo. Njira ya kayendetsedwe ka Bush nthawi zonse inali yochenjera kuposa pamenepo. Kulengeza malamulo ankhondo ndi kugwiritsa ntchito asitikali kuti asinthe zotsatira za zisankho kungakhale kupita kunkhondo.
Panali kangapo pamene zinali zoonekeratu kuti olamulira a Maliki sanali kuchita momwe boma la Bush likufunira. Ndipo, pakati pa okonza zankhondo aku US, panali zokamba zonse zokhudza kulanda boma kuti alowe m'malo mwake. Koma anadziletsa chifukwa chakuti kuwopseza kupanduka kunapangitsa kukhala koopsa kwambiri kuyesa.
Panalinso nthawi zosiyanasiyana pamene Maliki ankafuna kugwiritsa ntchito asilikali olemera kuti aphatikize mphamvu zake, ndipo a US ankamuletsa nthawi zambiri kuposa momwe amamulola kutero. Kotero uku kungakhale kuchoka ku ndondomeko yachikhalidwe yaku America kumeneko.
Poganizira mtundu wa kusimidwa - ndi kulephera kotheka - kusuntha koteroko, sindikuganiza kuti ayesa. Koma sindikanasiya, chifukwa mwanjira ina izi ndizovuta kwambiri zomwe US yakumana nazo panthawi yamavuto aku Iraq.
Cholinga chonse cha Iraq ngati likulu lachifumu la US chikhoza kutha. Panthawi ina, angafunike kusankha ngati akufuna kuyambiranso nkhondoyo kuti ayese kukonzanso Iraq, kapena kulola kuti ichoke. Chifukwa chake sizingatheke kuti izi zichitike.
F. GANIZO LANGA linali loti ngati mkulu wa boma ku United States akunena kuti Maliki akhoza kulengeza kuti ndi lamulo lankhondo, ndiye kuti dziko la US silinapeze zotsatira zomwe likufuna. Ndipo ngati mafunde odana ndi US omwe akutsogozedwa ndi Allawi ndi Sadr ali omwe akupikisana kwambiri kuti achotse Maliki, ndiye kuti mwina chinthu chosavuta kuchita ndichoti Maliki agwetse nyundoyo. Izi zimapatsa US chifukwa chabwino chochotsera mgwirizano wankhondo (SOFA) womwe umalamula kuti asitikali aku US atuluke kumapeto kwa 2011.
Michael Schwartz. INDE, ndikuvomereza kuti lingaliro ili liyenera kukhala gawo la malingaliro awo. Koma atha kukhala ndi njira yocheperako yong'amba SOFA. Adanenapo nthawi zambiri m'mbuyomu kuti Maliki atha kuganiza kuti akufunika kukhala ndi America, ngakhale palibe zosokoneza, kuti aletse kupanduka kwamkati kapena kuwukira kunja. Ngati Maliki atha kubwezeredwa pampando kapena kuchitapo kanthu asanachoke paudindo, atha kupangitsa kuti ziwoneke ngati asitikali aku US alipo poitanidwa. Kuchita koteroko, komabe, kungayambitsenso kukana mwamphamvu, ngakhale zachiwawa.
Chofunikira ndichakuti ma equation amphamvu omwe akubwera pambuyo pa chisankhochi ndi oyipa kwambiri ku US - ndikuti olamulira a Obama atha kusankha kuti afunika kumenya nkhondo kuti akonzenso mphamvu zankhondo kukhala mbiri yovomerezeka. . Izi, ndikuganiza, ndizomveka.
Munkhaniyi, ndikofunikira kuzindikira kuti a Sadrist afotokoza momveka bwino malingaliro awo osakambilana kuti US iyenera kutuluka. Kuphatikiza apo, a Sadrist akhala akulimbana kwambiri nthawi yonseyi potsutsa kukhalapo kwa makampani akunja m'minda yamafuta ku Iraq. Akufuna makampani amafuta adziko lonse.
Chifukwa chake ndizovuta pawiri, monga momwe US ikukhudzira. US yawapatsa mwayi uliwonse m'miyezi isanu ndi umodzi yapitayo kuti asinthe momwe amaonera kukhalapo kwa US. Ndipo ngakhale ma Sadrist apereka malo m'malo ambiri, sanaperekepo mfundo ziwirizi. Monga momwe iwo angakhalire ndi chikoka chachikulu pa boma lomwe langokhazikitsidwa kumene, zikuwoneka kuti adzafuna kudana ndi gulu lankhondo laku US lomwe likupitilizabe.
Zaka zisanu zapitazo, Iyad Allawi anali chidole chowona mtima kwa-ubwino waku America, koma adadzipanga kukhala wokonda dziko. Monga mtsogoleri wazomwe zakhala ngati voti yayikulu kwambiri mu nyumba yamalamulo yatsopano, malingaliro ake odana ndi America ndiwofunika kwambiri. Ndipo monga a Sadrists, amatsutsanso kwambiri malonda amafuta.
Ngati Allawi ndi Sadr atha kupanga mgwirizano ndikuwongolera boma - zikuwoneka kuti onse adzakhala ocheperako, koma ochepera pa magawo awiri pa atatu omwe akufunika kuti apange boma - boma lomwe langokhazikitsidwa kumene lingangotsala pang'ono kutha. yesetsani kuwongolera zonse zomwe zingachuluke kwambiri ndalama zamafuta. Izi zikusiyana ndi Maliki, yemwe angakhale wokonzeka kulola mabungwe amafuta padziko lonse lapansi kuwongolera mafutawo.
Izi zitha kubweretsa boma lamphamvu la Iraq lomwe lingathe kugwira ntchito ndi Iran kuti likhazikitse gulu lamphamvu lachigawo - vuto lalikulu kwambiri ku US Kuthekera kwa izi kungakhale chifukwa chokwanira kuti olamulira a Obama akhale ndi nkhawa. Ndi funso losangalatsa.
Chinthu china choyenera kuganizira ndi funso la mphamvu zomwe zikulamulira zigawo zosiyanasiyana za Baghdad kunja kwa Green Zone komanso m'madera osiyanasiyana ndi madera akumidzi ku Iraq. M’madera ena mulibe. Ndipo m'malo ena, mutha kunena kuti boma limaperekedwa ndi mapangidwe am'deralo omwe achitika panthawiyi.
Kotero ku Basra, mwachitsanzo, pali pafupifupi boma la mzinda, koma osati kwenikweni. Ndi gulu la madera omwe amayendetsedwa ndi magulu osiyanasiyana am'deralo omwe adayambitsa mizu m'zaka zingapo zapitazi. A Sadris amalamulira madera ena, koma achotsedwa m'malo ena. Chipani cha Fadhila [chipani cha Shia chomwe chinatulukamo, koma tsopano chikutsutsana ndi, Sadists] chikulamulira m'madera ambiri. Supreme Council ilibe chilichonse pansi. M'mizinda ina ing'onoing'ono, muli magulu a utsogoleri ogwirizana.
Ambiri mwa maboma amenewa amatsogozedwa ndi utsogoleri wa mderalo popanda kukhalapo kwa dziko kapena kudalirana kulikonse. Izi ndi zoona makamaka pamene mafuko apeza utsogoleri; amatha kukhala amphamvu m'deralo komanso okonzekera bwino, makamaka akakhala ndi maubwenzi amphamvu ku mizikiti makamaka m'madera a Sunni. Chifukwa chake madera akumaloko atha kukhala ndi boma logwirizana, koma kukhalabe odziyimira pawokha komanso odziyimira pawokha ku boma ladziko lomwe lili ku Green Zone.
Mabungwe amderali nthawi zonse amalimbikitsa boma la dzikolo, kuyitanitsa gawo lawo lamafuta amafuta komanso kuti mafuta azikhala pansi paulamuliro wawo. Pakalipano iwo sanapambanepo pang'ono ponena za ndalama zogulira mafuta, koma kupambana kwakukulu pakukolola chuma chapafupi.
Ku Basra, mwachitsanzo, boma laderalo lalanda malo opangira magetsi ndikuletsa magetsi ku gridi ya dziko kuti athandize zosowa za m'deralo. Ku Anbar, madera akumaloko adachotsa mafuta m'mapaipi ndi magalimoto ndipo adagwiritsa ntchito ndalama zamsika zakuda kuti azilipira chilichonse kuyambira mapulojekiti akumaloko mpaka zigawenga mpaka zigawenga.
Ndizotheka kuti mgwirizano womwe a Sadrist ali mbali yake, kapena mgwirizano womwe ungakhalepo wamtsogolo pakati pa gulu la Sadrist ndi gulu la Allawi, ungakhale chiwonetsero cha magulu am'deralo omwe akugwira ntchito limodzi mosatsimikizika kuti anene. mfundo za dziko. Ndipo lamulo la dzikolo likhoza kukhala ngati galimoto imene boma lenileni la dziko lingamangidwe nalo.
Malinga ndi malingaliro a US, boma "lotsika" loterolo likhoza kukhala loopsa kwambiri, chifukwa chinthu chimodzi chomwe boma loterolo lingakhale ndilokonda dziko kwambiri. Izi ndi zomwe US analanda Iraq kuti achotse.
Kotero pakhoza kukhala kukonzanso kwa nkhanza za ku America, kubwezeretsanso madera a m'deralo omwe amapanga maziko a mphamvu za mapangidwe osiyanasiyanawa, akuyang'ana makamaka Sadrists, komanso maziko a Sunni a Allawi kuti athetse maziko awo.
Izi, kwenikweni, zomwe nkhondo yoyamba idalipo, ndipo nkhondo yatsopanoyo imatha kuwoneka yofanana, kuphatikiza kulondera, kuwukira nyumba komanso kuwononga nyumba zomwe "zosungira" zigawenga. Izi zikuwoneka ngati zotheka kutali, koma mawonekedwe a zinthu angapangitse okonza mapulani aku US kuti aganizire izi ngati njira yomaliza kuti asapemphedwe kuti achoke.
KUYANKHA KWA MALIKI pakuwonetsa mwamphamvu kwa Allawi ndiko kunena kuti Allawi, ngakhale iye ndi Shia, anali ndi zibwenzi zolimba ndi chipani cha Saddam Hussein cha Ba'ath Party ndikuti Allawi ali ndi cholinga chobwezeretsa ulamuliro wa Ba'ath, ndiko kuti, ulamuliro wa Sunni. a Shia. Chotero Maliki, amene m’mbuyomo anadzisonyeza kukhala wosapembedza, tsopano akuseŵera khadi lampatuko. Zogwirizana ndi izi ndi mgwirizano pakati pa Sadr ndi zipani zina zonse za Shia ku Iraq ndi boma la Shia ku Iran. Kodi mukuganiza kuti malingaliro ampatuko amtunduwu akugwira ntchito yanji mu ndale zaku Iraq masiku ano?
Michael Schwartz. SUNNIS KU Iraq alibe magulu a utsogoleri omwe amawonekera mdziko lonse omwe akufuna kuyimira chidwi chawo chamagulu. Kuyambira mchaka cha 2003, gulu lankhondo la US lalunjika gulu lililonse lomwe lili ndi zikhumbo zotere, kupatula ochepa omwe adathandizira kuwukira kwa US motsutsana ndi zigawenga za Sunni. Anthu okanganawa, omwe ankanamizira kuti akuimira zofuna za Sunni mu nyumba yamalamulo yapitayi, adadedwa kuyambira chisankho cha 2005 chisanachitike, ndipo adalandira mavoti ochepa ndipo mwina sanapeze mpando umodzi pachisankhochi.
Gulu la Sahwa - lotchedwa Awakening ndi atolankhani akumadzulo - silinagwirizane ndi mapangidwe ophatikizika, ngakhale pachigawo chachigawo, choncho lakhala lamphamvu m'madera osiyanasiyana popanda kupanga mapangidwe a dziko la Sunni. Zotsatira zake, a Sunni analibe njira ina iliyonse kupatula gulu la Allawi ili.
Gulu la Allawi ladzaza malo opanda kanthuwa polemba atsogoleri angapo ofunikira am'deralo ndi maboma omwe ali nawo mumgwirizano wawo wazisankho. Ngakhale Maliki adayesetsa kuletsa ena mwa omwe adasankhidwa, magulu amderali adapereka zigawo zawo pamndandanda wamasankho a Allawi, bwino kwambiri ku Anbar, komwe adapambana kwambiri, komanso ku Kirkuk, komwe adagonjetsa aku Kurds momveka bwino ndipo adazindikira kuti izi. chigawo chofunikira sichidzadutsa mwakachetechete kudera la Kurdish lachikoka.
Kupambana kwa Allawi, kotero, sikuyimira kapena kuyimira kupulumuka kwa chipani cha Ba'ath, ndipo sindikuganiza kuti aliyense ku Iraq amaguladi lingaliro lakuti Maliki akuyandama ponena za Allawi kukhazikitsanso ulamuliro wa Baathi. Chofunikira kwambiri, Allawi sanagwirizane ndi zotsalira za kukhazikitsidwa kwa Baathist mwanjira iliyonse yeniyeni. Magulu akumeneko amene iye akulimbana nawo, ena a iwo ndi achipembedzo cha Baath, koma sianthu omwe kale anali atsogoleri a Chipani cha Baath; ndi anthu amene anakulira nthawi imeneyi kuyambira kugwa kwa ulamuliro wa Baath monga atsogoleri am'deralo.
Ndikuganiza kuti kuchokera kumalingaliro a anthu omwe ali okhazikika mu ndale za Iraq - kuphatikizapo ngakhale a Shia ampatuko kwambiri kum'mwera kwa dziko - mlanduwu si wodalirika. Mwina Maliki akuganiza kuti mlanduwu udzasonkhanitsa anthu a m'madera a Shia, koma sizikuwoneka ngati izi zikuyenda bwino. Mwina ndi chionetsero chabe cha kusimidwa.
F. KAPENA Maliki akulozera uthenga ku US ngati pempho, kapena chiwopsezo, kuti US imuyike kumbuyo.
Michael Schwartz. INDE, zitha kukhala zogwiritsidwa ntchito padziko lonse lapansi. M'malo mwake, zitha kukhala kuti uku ndi kuyesa kwina kulungamitsa kupitilizabe kukhalapo kwa asitikali aku US kupitilira 2011. Salvo yoyambayo pambuyo pake ikhoza kukulitsa kuyitanitsa kuti asitikali aku US alowererepo, kuti abweretse "madera ovutitsa" awa omwe amapanga maziko a chisankho cha Allawi. kupambana.
M'malo mwake, mwina akulankhulanso ku US Pempholi likufanana kwambiri ndi zofuna za Obama - kunyoza mgwirizano wa Allawi wokonda dziko komanso wotsutsana ndi America - ndipo zitha kukhala mawu osavuta a zomwe ofesi ya kazembe wa US, yomwe yakhala ikuchita pafupipafupi. anadziŵikitsa dziko la Sunni monga kubwezeretsa kwa Ba'ath.
Koma izi ndi zongopeka; pakadali pano palibe umboni wachindunji wosonyeza kuti Maliki ndi mphaka ku US pankhaniyi. Chovuta ndichakuti atolankhani ofufuza sakupezanso zinthu izi, ndipo chidziwitsochi chikuchedwa kukula.
Ku Iran, ndikuganiza kuti utsogoleri waku Irani waganiza kuti sizingalephereke kuchita izi, ndipo ndikuganiza kuti abwerera kumbuyo pazomwe adayesetsa kuchitapo kanthu m'mbuyomu. Kumene akuyika zambiri za mphamvu zawo, ndikuganiza, ndi maubwenzi azachuma ndi olamulira a Maliki omwe angapirire kusintha kwa ulamuliro.
Akupereka magetsi ku zigawo zingapo za Iraq - makamaka, zigawo zomwe zili ndi anthu ambiri a Sunni - omwe sanalowe mu gridi yamagetsi yaku Iran. Madera ambiri tsopano akupeza magetsi kuchokera ku Iran patatha zaka zambiri akulandidwa m'manja mwa US. Tangoganizani momwe malingaliro a anthu akukhudzira madera awa, komwe US idadedwa kale.
Kapena, taganizirani za mzinda wa Shia wa Karbala, komwe aku Iran akupereka ndalama ndikumanga bwalo la ndege lamakono, kotero oyendayenda ochokera ku Iran komanso dziko lonse la Shia akhoza kuwuluka ku Karbala. Apanso, lingalirani mmene anthu akumaloko akukhudzidwira pamene bwalo la ndege latsopanoli likubweretsa mumzindawu anthu zikwi mazana ambiri odzaona malo ofunitsitsa kuwononga ndalama zambiri pa maulendo awo achipembedzo. Anthu aku Irani ayambanso kuyenga mafuta aku Iraq, chifukwa mphamvu yoyenga ku Iraq ili pansi pa zosowa za Iraq.
Chifukwa chake aku Irani akupanga mtundu wapakati pazachuma m'maiko awiriwa omwe ndikuganiza kuti akuwona ngati njira yokhazikika yopangira mgwirizano kuposa zoyesayesa zolemetsa zokhuza usilikali kapena zigawenga zomwe anali kuchita kale.
Izi zimawapangitsa kukhala mdani wamphamvu kwambiri ku US
Ndipo anthu aku Iran sali okha pakuyesetsa kwawo kumanga ubale wokhazikika wachuma ndi Iraq. Mwa makontrakitala onse amafuta omwe adaperekedwa chaka chatha, wosewera wamkulu kwambiri ndi CNPC, kampani yamafuta yaku China. Mapangano amafuta awa awonjezera mapangano ena azachuma omwe akuwonetsa kusinthasintha kwanthawi yayitali pakati pa mayiko.
Makamaka, Iran, China ndi mayiko ena akudzipereka kuti akhazikitse zomangamanga za Iraq, chifukwa ngati mafuta atuluka, payenera kukhala maziko omwe angathe kuwongolera pakapita nthawi. Osiyanasiyana omwe angakhale nawo komanso ogulitsa enieni akufuna kupereka misewu ndi mapaipi opita ku Iraq kuti atenge nawo gawo la kupanga mafuta ndi ndalama. Ndipo boma la Maliki ndilokondwa kukambirana za makonzedwe otere pomwe US sakumuwuza kuti sangatero.
Ndipo kumbukirani kuti ngakhale zonsezi zikuyenda bwino mkati mwa Iraq, bungwe la Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) - mgwirizano wachitetezo pakati pa Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan ndi Uzbekistan - tsopano ikuyitanitsa Iran kuti ikhale membala wathunthu.
SCO ndikuwonjezera gawo lachikoka cha China, ndipo aku China akuyembekeza kubweretsa Iran - kenakonso, Iraq - pansi pa ambulera yawo. Kukula kotereku kungapangitse mgwirizano pakati pa Iraq ndi Iran womwe ndi wokhazikika kuposa njira zina zandale zomwe Iran idachitapo kale.
Izi ndizowopseza kwambiri zomwe olamulira a Obama adapanga ku Iraq ngati likulu la ufumu wawo ku Middle East. Ndipo zikuwonetsa kuti zotsatira za chisankho sichinthu chofunikira kwambiri pakali pano. Mosasamala kanthu kuti ndani adzakhala nduna yaikulu komanso amene amapambana maudindo osiyanasiyana a nduna, maubwenzi awa azachuma ndi China ndi Iran adzakhala okopa kwambiri. M'malo mwake, izi zitha kuyesa boma lililonse lomwe silili cholengedwa chonse cha ndondomeko yaku America.
F. KODI pali kusiyana kotani pakati pa voti ya Allawi ndi ma Sadrists? Zikuwoneka kuti onse akuyesera kukopa voti yotsutsana ndi US.
Michael Schwartz. ASADRITS anali ndi zipani zina zingapo koma momwe chisankhocho chidayendetsedwera nthawi ino anthu amatha kulowa m'bwalo ndikuvotera ngati akufuna, koma amathanso kusankha munthu yemwe akufuna kumuvotera. slate mwa kusankha kwawo.
Mu zisankho za 2005, masileti osiyanasiyana adzaperekedwa - potengera mavoti awo onse - kuchuluka kwa mipando yanyumba yamalamulo, ndipo atsogoleri a ma slate amasankha omwe angakhale aphungu awo. Tsopano, ngakhale kuchuluka kwa mipando yanyumba yamalamulo yomwe yapambanidwa ndi mndandandawo ikutsimikiziridwabe chimodzimodzi, osankhidwa enieni omwe asankhidwa pa chisankho akutsimikiziridwa ndi mavoti awo onse.
Chifukwa chake zidapezeka kuti ovota ambiri adalowa m'malo ovotera ndipo adasankha kuvotera osankhidwa a Sadrist kuchokera ku slate yadziko momwe a Sadri adachita nawo. Izi zinali choncho makamaka ku Baghdad, ndipo zinali chonchonso m’mizinda ingapo yakumwera. M'chigawo cha Maysan, mwachiwonekere anali opambana kwambiri. Koma m’madera ena, ngakhale kumene slate yawo sinachite bwino monga momwe akanafunira, Asadrist anachita bwino kwambiri kuposa masileti ena onse.
Tsopano zomwe zikutanthauza kuti anthu wamba pansi akufunafuna Sadrists, choncho zimakhala zoona kuti a Sadri akadali ndi maziko pansi ndipo anthu akuwawona ngati oimira enieni a zofuna zawo.
Palibe kukayikira m'maganizo mwanga kuti ntchito yachitukuko yomwe Sadists akhala akuyesera kuchita m'madera ogwira ntchito ku Iraq, nthawi zambiri ndi kupambana kwenikweni, ikugwirabe ntchito yofunika kwambiri.
Iwo ali ndi maziko enieni, amatha kusonkhanitsa mazikowo, ndipo mazikowo amawathandiza chifukwa cha zomwe amapereka maziko pazochitika za dziko losalamulidwa ndi dziko lino lodzaza ndi maboma a proto.
Panthaŵi imodzimodziyo, maganizo oumirira maganizo a Asadristi afika pamlingo waukulu m’mbali zambiri, osati m’mbali ya makhalidwe aumwini, koma m’mbali za ndale ndi kulolera malingaliro ena.
Kwa nthawi yayitali, zikuwoneka ngati a Sadrist adadzipanga ngati mphamvu zotsogola m'malo a Shia, koma adatsimikizira kuti akadali ndi bungwe pansi ndi kudalirika kwakukulu, chifukwa anthu amawawona ngati omwe akuwatsogolera. kupereka mtundu wina wa mayankho azachuma ku mavuto awo. Ndikuganiza kuti ndizofunika kwambiri.
Kumbali ya Allawi, sindikuganiza kuti ndizosiyana, kupatulapo kuti Allawi ndi wojambula. Gulu la Allawi limapangidwa ndi magulu omwe ali ndi maziko amderalo, ndipo ndi maziko amderalo omwe akupereka mavoti awa. Kusanthula kukatuluka, ndikuganiza kuti tipeza kuti ndi anthu omwe akuyimira maziko amderalo omwe apambana zisankho m'mizinda yosiyanasiyana ya chigawo cha Anbar ndi madera ena ozungulira pomwe Allawi adawonetsa bwino. , makamaka ku Kirkuk, chomwe ndi chitsanzo chochititsa chidwi cha izi.
Kusiyana kwina ndikuti Sadrists ndi gulu ladziko, kapena gulu la quasi-nationalist lomwe limakhalapo m'madera onse a Shia, pamene gulu la Allawi ndi mndandanda wamagulu am'deralo omwe angogwirizana okha. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, iwo alibe ulamuliro wogwirizana wa ndale — pali anthu a Chisahwa, pali zipani zina zakale, pali anthu ena amene ali ndi kukhulupirika kwenikweni kwa Aba’ati koma anali otsika.
Chifukwa chake pali atsogoleri ena achipembedzo m'madera a Sunni, koma kulibe utsogoleri wadziko komanso maziko achidule a pulogalamu yogwirizana. Ndi gulu losakanikirana lamagulu omwe angagwirizane pazinthu zina osati pa zina. Atha kuvomereza kuti akufuna Allawi ngati nduna yayikulu, koma pakhala kusagwirizana kwakukulu pamalingaliro enieni.
Pakhala zofuna zambiri za mayankho am'deralo. Dera lililonse lomwe mgwirizano wa Allawi udapambana amafunsa kuti, "Zinthu zathu zili kuti?" pamene a Sadr atha kufotokoza ndondomeko yogwirizana yothandizidwa ndi mamembala awo onse a nyumba yamalamulo - ndipo, mwinamwake chofunika kwambiri - atsogoleri awo onse.
F. KUZANG'ANIRA mwachidule zomwe mukukangana, dziko la US linkayembekezera kuti zisankho zipereke boma lokhazikika, koma m'malo mwake zidabweretsa boma lofooka, losweka. Zotsatira zake, dziko la Iran tsopano ndi dziko lamphamvu kwambiri m'derali, ndipo zaka zisanu ndi ziwiri kupitilira, US ilibe zowonetsa pakuwononga ndalama zambiri zamagazi ndi chuma ku Iraq.
Michael Schwartz. NDIKUGANIZA kuti ndichidule chabwino kwambiri. Koma ngati mukuyang'ana njira yoti olamulira a Obama amve bwino pang'ono pazomwe zikuchitika, mutha kuwonetsa mapangano amafuta omwe atha kukwaniritsidwa ndipo pamapeto pake angalimbikitse boma lalikulu.
Kapena mutha kunena kuti Iraq tsopano ili ndi gulu lankhondo lomwe limati asitikali a 600,000, omwe US akuganiza kuti akhoza kukhala gulu lankhondo - ngakhale mutatumiza kumadera ambiri, simungathe kudalira. "kutonthoza" zambiri za chilichonse.
Chifukwa chake ali ndi chiyembekezo chakuyenda kwamafuta, ndipo ayamba gulu lankhondo - zinthu ziwiri zomwe zitha kupanga boma logwirizana - ngakhale palibe amene akuchita ziwonetsero. Koma ngakhale izi zitakhala maziko a boma lokhazikika, olamulira a Obama sangatsimikizidwe kuti boma lidzakhala bwenzi lodalirika lomwe lakhala cholinga choyambirira kuyambira chiyambi cha kuwukira.
Chifukwa chake pali zizindikiro zingapo zachiyembekezo pano kwa iwo, koma chilichonse mwachiyembekezocho chimakhala chovuta pang'ono. Ine ndikuganiza iwo ayenera kukhala odandaula kwambiri. Ngati alibe nkhawa, ndi chifukwa cha kudzikuza kwa mphamvu zomwe sanazindikirebe kuti makhadi omwe akugwira sakugwira ntchito momwe amayenera kugwirira ntchito.
Chifukwa chake ndikuganiza kuti Iraq, mwanjira ina, ili pamphambano. Koma sindikuganiza kuti chisankho ndichofunika kwambiri pa mphambano, koma ndi chizindikiro cha mphambanozo.
Pali chinthu chimodzi chomaliza chomwe ndikufuna kuwonjezera. Pali kulimbana kosakhazikika pansi ku Iraq chifukwa cha mgwirizano wamafuta omwe angokambirana kumene. Ambiri mwa osewera akuluakulu ndi makampani amafuta aboma m'malo mwa alongo asanu ndi awiri akale, ma Shells ndi Exxons ndi ena otero, omwe amasewera gawo locheperako.
Mapangano amafuta awa akuyenera kusokoneza kupanga mafuta ku Iraq, kuwirikiza katatu posachedwa, ndipo makampani osiyanasiyana amafuta akunja akuyenera kulowa ndikukhazikitsa njira zoyenera kuti izi zitheke. Komabe, pali zotsutsa zambiri, chifukwa makampani amafuta akufuna kubweretsa antchito akunja ndikuwona kupanga ngati nsanja ina yotumiza kunja. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, iwo ali mmenemo kuti angotulutsa mafutawo.
Koma pamlingo uliwonse, makampani amafuta aku Iraq, ogwira ntchito pamafuta ndi atsogoleri amderalo onse akufuna kuti chitukuko chamafuta ichi chikhale chomwe chimawalemeretsa. Akufuna kusunga ndalama ndi mphamvu ndi ukadaulo waluso mkati mwa Iraq.
Inde, makampani amafuta a boma la Iraq sali mabwenzi a anthu, koma ndi anzawo okha, ndipo safuna kuti makampani amafuta akunja aziwongolera zida zatsopanozi - akufuna kuwongolera. Ndipo ngati apambana nkhondoyi, zikutanthauza kuti ma Iraqi adzagwiritsidwa ntchito kuchokera pansi mpaka pamwamba, kuti madera azitha kutenga gawo lazopezazo, ndipo phindu likhoza kubwezeretsedwanso ku Iraq.
Zonsezi sizikhala zocheperako ngati makampani omwe ali ndi maboma akunja, makamaka China, atuluka ndikuwongolera magwiridwe antchito - koma osatheka. Ndipo zidzakhala zosatheka ngati makampani amafuta apadziko lonse lapansi, monga Shell ndi Exxon, apeza mphamvu zoyendetsera ntchito.
Koma sizikudziwikiratu kuti ndani azidzalamulira. Momwe makontrakitala adalembedwera, ndizosamvetsetseka. Pali zinthu zomwe zimalepheretsa makampani amafuta padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo pali zinthu zambiri zomwe zimawapatsa mwayi weniweni.
Ogwira ntchito mafuta amakhudzidwa kwambiri ndi izi, ndipo akulimbana nazo. Pali zowononga kale m'makontrakitala oyamba omwe akhazikitsidwa chifukwa atsogoleri am'deralo ndi mabungwe amawona kuti ogulitsa ndi ogwira ntchito akumaloko apeza gawo loyenera. Chifukwa chake mgwirizanowu udayimitsidwa chifukwa kukana kwawoko kukuletsa.
Kusinthasintha komweku kuchulukirachulukira pamakontrakitala onsewa. Ndipo tsopano, nyumba yamalamulo yatsopano idasankhidwa papulatifomu kuti mapanganowa achotsedwe ndikulembedwanso kuti apereke zitsimikizo zonse zaku Iraq kuwongolera mafuta. Kotero ine ndikuganiza kuti ndi pamene kulimbana kuli, chifukwa chuma cha Iraq chimadalira zomwe zimachitika ku chuma cha mafuta.
Kusindikiza kwa Tom Arabia ndi Matt Korn
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