A ranar 24 ga watan Agusta ne aka kammala taron kolin Brazil-Rasha-Indiya-China-China da Afirka ta Kudu (BRICS) a birnin Johannesburg bayan wani babban abin takaici: kalubalen da aka dade ana fama da shi na girman dalar Amurka ya kasance har yanzu sakamakon dakarun masu ra'ayin rikau na kungiyar. Amma duk da haka bisa amincewar shugabannin BRICS, an gudanar da aikin fadada hanyar sadarwa, wanda ya hada da Argentina, Masar, Habasha, Iran, Saudi Arabia da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa (UAE).
Duk da haka, sanannen ƙarfin da ke cikin sabbin membobin ƙasashe masu fama da burbushin halittu, na mulkin kama karya da take haƙƙin ɗan adam - farar hula, tattalin arziƙin ƙasa da muhalli - yana haɓaka haɗarin ƙungiyar da ke akwai. Har yanzu, sauran kasashe 17 da suka nemi izinin, da wasu 20 da suka nuna sha'awarsu, na iya sanya kungiyar ta fi yin barazana a kan wadancan laifuka, abin da aikace-aikacen da irinsu Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Jamhuriyar Demokradiyyar Kongo, Kazakhstan suka gabatar. , Morocco, Sudan, Turkiya da Zimbabwe.
Wadanne ma'auni ne ake ɗauka don faɗaɗawa? Babu wata hujja da aka bayyana a wannan karon, amma a matsayinsa na manajan taron kolin Afirka ta Kudu Anil Sooklal da'awa, "Mun fito fili cewa dole ne kasashe su kasance daga Kudancin Duniya, suna da matsayi mai kyau a yankunansu, kuma na uku dole ne su kara wa BRICS kyakkyawan matsayi." Amma 'tsayi mai kyau' a bayyane ya haɗa da zalunci. Yakin da aka dade a Yemen wanda ya hada Iran da Saudiyya da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa, wanda ya yi sanadin mutuwar fararen hula 350,000 a cikin tsananin yunwa. Hukuncin kisa da Iran ta yi wa masu zanga-zangar nuna goyon baya a lokacin boren kare hakkin mata. Yakin basasar Habasha a Tigray. Kisan gillar da sojojin Saudiyya suka yi wa 'yan gudun hijirar Habasha da ke tsallaka kan iyakar Yaman da ke kan iyaka da kasar Yaman. Ƙin Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa ta mika 'yan'uwan Gupta da suka yi wa Afirka ta Kudu cin hanci da rashawa a cikin 2010s. Jam'iyyar Argentin ta kwanan nan ta kada kuri'a ga dan siyasa irin na Bolsonaro Javier Melia (wanda ke da nufin sarkidala tattalin arzikin gida) - kodayake mafi yawan masu ra'ayin mazan jiya na iya yin nasara a cikin Oktoba.
Kamar yadda aka saba tare da BRICS, lokacin da irin wannan rashin fahimta ya bayyana, yakan yi nuni da yanayin tafiya-dama na magana-hagu: maganganu masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na adawa da mulkin daular da ke nufin canza ra'ayin mazan jiya da hare-hare kan mazabun masu aiki na gida. Misali, yayin da take jawabi a taron matasan BRICS a watan Yuli, ministar shugaban kasar Afirka ta Kudu Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. sha'awa A kan yadda BRICS za ta "hanzarta rushewar tsarin mulkin duniya mara adalci." ya ce Busisiwe Mavuso, babban jami'in harkokin kasuwanci na Afirka ta Kudu,
Jawabin ya yi nauyi kan kalaman da suka gabatar da BRICS a matsayin wata gasa a duniya a kan kasashen yamma, maimakon kawancen da aka tsara don bunkasa ci gaba da hadin gwiwar mambobinta. Abin ban mamaki, a cikin wannan jawabin, Dlamini-Zuma ta koka da wadanda suka gwammace mu tura kayan danye maimakon kera kayayyaki ga duniya. Ba ta dakata ba ta yi la'akari da cewa dangantakarmu da Indiya da Sin tana da nasaba da Afirka ta Kudu na fitar da albarkatun kasa zuwa kasashen waje da shigo da kayayyakin da aka kera daga waje."
Kishin kasa mai tsattsauran ra'ayi na gwamnati, ba sabon abu ba ne, Shugaban Jami'ar Johannesburg a Afirka Diflomasiya, Chris Landsberg, ya fassara shi a matsayin wata alama ta Pretoria ta "ɗalilin ɗaukaka zuwa na biyu na yakin cacar baka, wanda kawancen adawa da mulkin mallaka ke jagoranta wanda gaskiya ne kuma gaskiya ne. na gaske, ba tare da duban ra'ayin sub-imperialist da sabon tsarin mulkin mallaka na membobin BRICS masu ƙarfi ba. Har ila yau, Afirka ta Kudu tana son dangantaka ta kud da kut da kasashen Yamma, kusan a kan tattalin arzikinta, tare da jaddada rashin yarda da siyasa tsakanin Pretoria da wadannan masu iko."
Ƙashin mulkin mallaka
Lallai wani lokaci, idan muka dubi kudurorin koli, jami'an BRICS suma magana daidai, daidai da wani yanki na daular a cikin tattalin arzikin duniya, inda shugabanninsu suka fito karara sun amince da rashin taimakonsu don yin wani gagarumin sauyi. Kafin yin la'akari da abubuwan da ke tattare da rikice-rikicen tattalin arziki da ke kawo cikas ga fatan BRICS na yakin kudin duniya, la'akari da harshe a cikin Sanarwar Johannesburg II (na farko da ya kasance a cikin 2018) yana kwatanta ci gaba da biyayyar BRICS ga cibiyoyi masu sassaucin ra'ayi na Yamma, kamar yadda aka bayyana a cikin waɗannan kudurori rabin dozin:
- 8. Mun sake tabbatar da goyon bayanmu ga buɗaɗɗe, gaskiya, gaskiya, abin da za a iya faɗi, haɗaka, daidaito, rashin nuna bambanci da tushen ƙa'idodi. Tsarin ciniki tsakanin bangarori daban-daban tare da kungiyar ciniki ta duniya (WTO) a tushenta...
- 9. Muna kira da bukatar a samar da ci gaba wajen samun nasarar gudanar da adalci da tsarin kasuwancin noma mai dogaro da kasuwa...
- 10. Muna goyon bayan mai ƙarfi Global Financial Safety Net tare da tushen ragi da isassun Asusun lamuni na Duniya (IMF) a cibiyarta… Duk wani daidaitawa a cikin hannun jari ya kamata ya haifar da shi yana ƙaruwa a cikin rabon kaso na kasuwanni masu tasowa da ƙasashe masu tasowa (EMDCs)…cikin ciki matsayin jagoranci a cikin cibiyoyin Bretton Woods, wanda ke nuna rawar EDCs a cikin tattalin arzikin duniya…
- 27. Muna karfafa cibiyoyin hada-hadar kudi da kungiyoyin kasa da kasa da su taka rawar gani a ciki gina yarjejeniya ta duniya kan manufofin tattalin arziki kuma… don ci gaba da aiwatar da shawarwari… daga Rahoton Review mai zaman kansa na G20...
- 29. Mun lura cewa yawan basussukan da ake bin wasu ƙasashe yana rage yawan kuɗin da ake buƙata don magance ƙalubalen ci gaban da ake fuskanta… Ɗaya daga cikin kayan aikin, da sauransu, don magance raunin bashi tare shine ta hanyar aiwatar da abin da ake iya faɗi, cikin tsari, lokaci da daidaitawa. Tsarin gama gari na G20 don Maganin Bashi, tare da halartar Masu ba da lamuni a hukumance, masu ba da lamuni masu zaman kansu da Bankunan Raya Ƙasashen Duniya daidai da ka'idar aikin haɗin gwiwa da rarraba nauyi mai kyau.
- 30. Mun sake tabbatar da Muhimmancin da G20 ke da shi na ci gaba da taka rawar da ake takawa ta dandalin tattaunawa kan hadin gwiwar tattalin arziki da hada-hadar kudi na kasa da kasa wanda ya kunshi kasuwanni masu tasowa da masu tasowa da kuma kasashe masu tasowa inda manyan kasashe masu tasowa ke neman hanyoyin magance kalubalen duniya baki daya. Muna sa ran samun nasarar gudanar da taron koli na G18 karo na 20 a New Delhi a karkashin shugabancin G20 na Indiya. Mun lura da damar da za a gina ci gaba mai dorewa don canji ta hanyar Indiya, Brazil da Afirka ta Kudu ne ke jagorantar G20 daga 2023 zuwa 2025 tare da nuna goyon bayansu ga ci gaba da hadin gwiwa a shugabanninsu na G20 tare da yi musu fatan samun nasara a cikin ayyukansu. (An ƙara jaddadawa)
Saƙo mai sauƙi a nan, shi ne, maimakon kawar da babban teburin ikon tattalin arzikin yammacin Turai, ƙungiyar tana da niyyar daidaitawa da kuma sake amincewa da wannan "tsarin da ya dogara da dokoki" - duk da cewa akwai sabani mai haske, wato akidarta mai tushe, Yarjejeniyar Washington. , ya haifar da wahala sosai a cikin al'ummomin BRICS masu karamin karfi. Wannan mubaya'ar ba sabon abu ba ne, domin tun daga shekarar 2008 lokacin da aka kafa G20, kasashen BRICS sun kasance kan gaba wajen hada-hadar kudi da manufofin kasashen yamma. A cikin irin wannan tsarin na duniya - kuma a cikin ƙasashen yammacin+BRICS' zuba jari kai tsaye na ƙasashen waje a cikin ƙasashe matalauta - muradun mulkin mallaka da na 'yan mulkin mallaka ke yin cudanya da juna.
Alal misali, shekarun 2010 sun shaida alkawurra akai-akai, a cikin magana da aiki, don sake fasalin ikon jefa kuri'a a Cibiyar Bretton Woods (BWIs). An kammala atisayen na BWI a matsayin wani kaso na shekarar 2015, inda kungiyar BRICS ta ba da gudummawar dalar Amurka biliyan 75 a cikin kudaden mayar da hannun jari, a shekarar da ta gabata an shigar da Yuan cikin kwandon kudaden hukuma na IMF. Adadin kuri'un da IMF ta kasar Sin ta samu ya karu da kashi 37 cikin dari a shekarar, na Brazil da kashi 23, na Indiya da kashi 11 cikin dari, da na Rasha da kashi takwas cikin dari, amma wannan karin kudin bai wuce kudin kasashen yamma ba.
Kasashen biyu da suka yi asarar kaso mafi tsoka a zaben su ne Najeriya da Venezuela (kashi 41 kowannensu) har ma da Afirka ta Kudu ta fadi da kashi 21 cikin dari. Kuri'ar kasar Sin ta tashi daga kashi 3.8 zuwa kashi 6.1 cikin dari na jimillar kuri'un, kuma kasashen BRICS biyar (manjojin kasashen yammacin Turai) sun amince su kai kusan kashi 15 cikin 2011 da za a iya amfani da karfin tsigewar. Amma ba a jin tasirin wannan tasirin a cikin canje-canje ga manufofin Washington Consensus, ko kuma a cikin "muƙamai na jagoranci a cikin cibiyoyin Bretton Woods." BRICS ba ta yi wani yunƙuri ba don yin takara tare a cikin ƙungiyar IMF da ke hannun Turai lokacin da ta canza hannu a 2019 da 2012, ba lokacin da Amurka ta kakaba shugabannin Bankin Duniya a 2019, 2023 da 100 ba. Dalar Amurka biliyan XNUMX na BRICS madadin tsare-tsare na IMF. Kuma musamman a cikin kundinsa na Afirka ta Kudu, sabon bankin raya BRICS ya sha maimaitawa bayar cin hanci da rashawa tare da lamunin da bai dace ba.
Zuwan takunkumin yanayi, a lokacin duban gaskiya na sake fasalin kudin
Duk da haka, an sami rashin jituwa tsakanin ƙungiyar masu fafutukar neman 'yancin cin gashin kai na BRICS, a ɗaya hannun, da kuma yammacin duniya, dangane da munanan takunkumin "ƙananan yanayi" a cikin tsarin daidaita iyakokin Carbon wanda, farawa a cikin Tarayyar Turai, za ta sanya haraji kan shigo da kayayyaki tare da manyan matakan makamashin iskar gas:
- 63. Muna adawa da shingen kasuwanci ciki har da waɗanda ke ƙarƙashin hujjar tinkarar sauyin yanayi da wasu kasashen da suka ci gaba suka kafa kuma mu nanata kudurin mu na inganta hadin kai kan wadannan batutuwa. Mun jadada cewa matakan da aka dauka don magance sauyin yanayi da asarar rayayyun halittu dole ne su kasance WTO-daidaitacce…Muna nuna damuwarmu kan duk wani matakin nuna wariya na WTO wanda zai yi gurbata kasuwancin duniya, kasada sabbin shingen kasuwanci da matsawa nauyin magance sauyin yanayi da asarar rayayyun halittu ga mambobin BRICS da kasashe masu tasowa.
Kalmomin a nan suna wakiltar wani nau'i na hana yanayi, saboda an riga an sami mummunar murdiya a cikin kasuwancin kasa da kasa, zuba jari da kuma kudi saboda gazawar tsarin jari-hujja na shigar da hayakin iskar gas na kamfanoni, gurbatar yanayi da raguwar albarkatu cikin lissafin farashin. Bisa la'akari da barazanar bala'o'in yanayi da yanayin yanayi da ke haifarwa ga duniya, musamman ga kasashen BRICS+, sha'awar ci gaba da rikice-rikice na kare muhalli shine "mafi girman gazawar kasuwa da duniya ta gani," a cewar masanin tattalin arziki na Burtaniya Nick Stern.
Kuma akai-akai tun daga 2021, mai masaukin baki mai mulkin Afirka ta Kudu - na jihohi da na kamfanoni - sun sake nanata cewa takunkumin sauyin yanayi na yammacin Turai game da fitar da makamashi mai karfi shine babban dalilin da ya sa tattalin arzikin ya lalace. Saboda yawan wutar lantarkin da ke tattare da kayayyakin da ake fitarwa a kasar zuwa kasashen waje, kasashen da suka amince da karin harajin Carbon za su sanya harajin kwastam - wani lokacin dala 100/ton idan aka kwatanta da dalar Amurka 0.35/tonne - ta yadda za a hana 'lekakar carbon'. Irin wannan jadawalin kuɗin fito zai iya zama mai ɓarna ga ƙungiyoyin Ƙungiyoyin Masu Amfani da Makamashi - galibin kamfanoni na ƙasashen Yamma suna yin tsayayya da ƙazantawa saboda suna ganin ƙarancin nauyi da tsadar jari daga hasken rana, iska da ajiya.
Don haka a wasu lokuta ana samun bambance-bambance masu mahimmanci a tsakanin buƙatun kayan duniya na masarautu da tattalin arzikin ƙasa. Mafi yawa, simintin kayan yana da sha'awa sosai yi daidai, Idan har har yanzu burin BRICS na iya cimma wani muhimmin abu rawar a cikin mulkin kamfanoni da yawa, ba don inganta shi ba (kamar yadda mutane da yawa suka himmatu ga talla da fatan son yin riya). A kusan duk lokatai da mafi yawan muryoyin Kudu masu dagewa suna tayar da adalci na tattalin arziki na duniya a matsayin damuwa, jarabar ita ce ta goyi bayan maganganunsu (ko da ayyukan da ba su dace da su ba), amma takunkumin yanayi a kan mega-emitters a cikin BRICS+ ba ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan lokutan ba.
Sauran manyan rikice-rikicen da ke faruwa akai-akai a tarurrukan BRICS shine kan dangantakar kuɗi da kuɗi, musamman tun lokacin da aka kakaba takunkumin kuɗi a kan Rasha a cikin Maris 2022 - gami da Bankin Raya Sabon BRICS (wanda Moscow ke da hannun jari na kashi 18 cikin ɗari). kamar yadda tabbatar da sabuwar shugabar ta Dilma Rousseff. Shugaban kasar Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva jãyayya ga sauran shugabannin kasashen da suka taru a Johannesburg, "Kirkirar kudi don hada-hadar kasuwanci da saka hannun jari tsakanin mambobin BRICS yana kara mana zabin biyan kudi kuma yana rage mana kasala."
Kuma wani jami'in fadar shugaban kasar Afirka ta Kudu, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, ya kasance musamman fushi game da tsarin Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (Swift), domin bayan mamaye Ukraine, "A yanzu an cire Rasha daga Swift, ko da yake babu Majalisar Dinkin Duniya takunkumi a kan Rasha Federation. A matsayinmu na mambobin BRICS, muna da damar duba hanyoyin yin mu'amala da juna ba tare da samun cikas ba da wasu bukatu da ke waje da muradunmu na kasa da kuma muradun MDD."
Amma waɗannan ra'ayoyin, da kuma shawarwarin ko dai na BRICS mai goyan bayan zinari ko na babban bankin yanar gizo, ko don renmimbi na kasar Sin ya zama mai canzawa, duk sun cika ta hanyar bincike mai tsauri. Rousseff kawai bayyana m buri na daga darajar rancen gida na bankin BRICS daga kashi 22 zuwa 30 nan da shekarar 2030, duk da barnar da rancen kuɗaɗen ke yi. Kuma ga jami'an jihar BRICS, bisa ga tsohon Marxist na Afirka ta Kudu – wanda yanzu neoliberal – ministan kudi Enoch Godongwana, “Ba mu da niyyar murkushe dala. Zai yi wuya kasashen da ke hada-hadar kasuwanci da kasashen yammacin duniya kamar Afirka ta Kudu, su ce ‘Zan iya murkushe dala’ saboda har yanzu ina kasuwanci da su sosai.”
Sim Tshabalala, babban jami'in gudanarwa na babban mai hada-hadar kudi na kasa da kasa na Afirka ta Kudu, Standard Bank, ya tunatar da kungiyar kasuwanci ta BRICS da shugabannin kasashe,
“halayen da ake buƙata na kuɗin ajiyar kuɗi na duniya. Waɗannan sun haɗa da kasancewa kuɗaɗen da babban bankin ƙasa ke bayarwa tare da ingantaccen tabbaci wajen aiwatar da manufofin kuɗi; kasancewar kuɗaɗen wata ƙasa ko wata ƙungiya mai ƙima mai ƙarfi daidai gwargwado akan manufofin kasafin kuɗi da biyan basussukan ta; kasancewa kyauta a cikin adadi mai yawa a yankuna da yawa; da cikakkiyar juzu'i a kowane lokaci. Wannan saitin halayen ba za a iya so da sauri ba - ko kuma yarda - wanzuwa, amma zai iya fitowa cikin shekaru da yawa a matsayin rikodin rikodi na ingantaccen sahihanci da amfani da yawa sosai. ”
Tabbas, a farkon shekarar 2023, Dalar Amurka ta kusan rasa amincinta da ake kyautata zaton cewa ba za ta iya yin tasiri ba yayin da Majalisar Wakilai ta Republican ta kawo wa kasar gaf da gazawa kan basussukan jama'a. Amma duk da haka, amfani da Dala a cikin tsarin biyan kuɗi na kasa da kasa na Swift (ba tare da hada-hadar intra-Eurozone ba) ya kasance kashi 59 cikin ɗari, idan aka kwatanta da Yuro da kashi 14 cikin ɗari, Fam ɗin Burtaniya a ƙasa da kashi 6 cikin ɗari, Yen a kashi 5, Kanada Dala a kusan kashi 3, kuma sama da kashi 2 kawai ga Renmimbi na kasar Sin. Kuma baya ga rashin daidaituwa a cikin musayar banki, manazarcin gida Jackie Cilliers bayar wasu dalilai na rashin tsoro:
“Babu wani abin da zai iya maye gurbin dala nan gaba. Ciniki tsakanin kasashen BRICS ya yi kankanta don dorewar kudin bai daya. Yana da ma'ana kawai don kasuwanci a cikin kuɗin ƙasa (ba a iya canzawa cikin yardar kaina) idan ma'aunin ciniki tsakanin ƙasashen ya fi ko žasa daidai. Alal misali, a kwanan nan Rasha ta sayar wa Indiya mai da yawa, inda ta yi mu'amala da rubi. Amma saboda Indiya tana fitar da kayayyaki da yawa zuwa Rasha fiye da yadda take shigo da su, yanzu Moscow tana zaune da rubi da ba za ta iya kashewa ba ko canzawa - sai dai siyan kayayyaki daga Indiya. Rinminbi na kasar Sin ba ya da isassun canji kuma ba ya da zurfin kasuwannin babban birnin kasar, da nuna gaskiya a kasuwa, da manyan bankunan tsakiya masu zaman kansu da kuma tallafawa cibiyoyin hada-hadar kudi na bankunan yammacin Turai. Har ila yau, akwai hasashe kan hadarin da ke da nasaba da makomar kasar Sin - kasar ta kasance mai cin gashin kanta da za ta yi gwagwarmaya don tabbatar da kwanciyar hankali yayin da ci gaban tattalin arziki ke raguwa. Har ila yau, Indiya za ta yi adawa da kudin bai daya, saboda damuwarta game da kasar Sin a matsayinta na kasa da kasa mai fafatawa a duniya."
The 'sub-imperialism!' slur - da slurs
A cikin mahallin irin wannan mummunan ma'auni na iko, akwai sauran labaran BRICS guda uku, wanda za a iya lakaftawa 'hype,' 'bege' da 'rashin taimako'. A wasu lokuta, ko da mafi bege ko zage-zage masu sharhi za su mika wuya ga shaidar halin daular sarauta; Jim kadan gabanin taron na Johannesburg, dan jaridar Brazil Pepe Escobar - wanda akasari jami'an Rasha suka yi bayani - abin kyama. lura Zazzafar cece-kuce kan ko shugaban kasar Rasha zai zo Johannesburg, bayan da kotun hukunta manyan laifuka ta kasa da kasa (ICC) ta gano cewa an yi garkuwa da dubun-dubatar yaran Ukraine, laifin yaki:
"Wannan Afirka ta Kudu ce ta ba da damar yin matsin lamba daga kasashen Yamma kan yarjejeniyar Rome ta ICC, a zahiri tana cewa ya kamata a kama Vladimir Putin idan ya shafi duk wani mai rattaba hannu kan ICC… An yi amfani da karfi a Pretoria da Johannesburg. Kuma saboda su ne mafi raunin hanyar haɗin gwiwa a cikin BRICS, dole ne su daina."
Amma ga wadanda ke cikin rukunoni biyu na farko, watau wadanda ke da manyan alkawurran siyasa na yin tsokaci kan BRICS ko kuma, a takaice, saka hannun jari kan karfin kungiyar, yana da matukar fusata idan aka fuskanci hujjar cewa kungiyar a zahiri ita ce. m: Ya zuwa yanzu ba a matsayin anti-emperialist ba madadin ga tsarin ikon tattalin arzikin kasashen yamma, amma a maimakon haka a matsayin sub-emperial Amplifier. Wannan haushi a hankali yana kaiwa ga nau'in caricature.
Alal misali, "Ina jin cewa ƙwaƙƙwaran sun zama masu haɗari sosai tare da maganganun banza game da mulkin mallaka," Roy Singham mai ba da agaji ya rubuta wa wani abokinsa a bara: "Sun zama masu ba da uzuri ga daular Amurka a cikin manyan manufofinta duk da cewa sun kasance masu goyon baya. yi kamar ba haka ba.” Kuma a cikin ruhu ɗaya, mai sharhin YouTuber geopolitical Danny Haiphong bayyana zuwa Ben Norton a farkon watan Agusta,
"Ina tsammanin akwai wasu da suke da gaske kamar BRICS naysayers. Ban sani ba ko ka gansu. Su ne, ka sani, akwai wani gunkin gaba ɗaya. Har ma mutane kamar Patrick Bond da wasu waɗanda ke kiran ƙasashen BRICS 'yan mulkin mallaka… Suna maimaita duk layin Cold War, da kyau, ba Washington ko Beijing ba. Ba Washington ko Tarayyar Soviet ba, oops hakika Tarayyar Rasha ce. Ka sani, kamar, akwai tunani a wurin. "
ya ce Norton,
“Wadannan mutanen, ba su san komai game da tattalin arziki ba. Ba su san komai ba game da haɓaka gurguzanci… Waɗannan mutanen ba su da mahimmanci kuma ba su fahimci tushen mulkin mallaka ba. Kuma a sake, sun yi kuskure game da komai. Mutane irin su Patrick Bond, sun yi kuskure game da Yugoslavia, sun yi kuskure da Tarayyar Soviet, sun yi kuskure game da Cuba, sun yi kuskure game da Nicaragua, sun yi kuskure game da Venezuela, sun yi kuskure game da yaki da Libya, wanda suka yi. duk goyon baya. Sun yi kuskure game da yakin Syria, wanda duk suka goyi bayansa. Kuma a yau sun yi kuskure game da Rasha da China, da ake zaton suna mulkin mallaka. Kuma sun yi kuskure game da BRICS kasancewa wata muryar neoliberalism…
"Ina nufin za ku iya ganin inda tarihi ke motsawa. A bayyane yake ko wane alkiblar BRICS ta dosa, kuma hakan ya bayyana dalilin da ya sa kasashe da dama a kudancin duniya, ciki har da kasashen da a tarihi suke kawancen kasashen yamma kamar Saudiyya da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa, shi ya sa su ma suke da sha'awar shiga da shiga tsakani. cikin wannan. Domin a yayin da duniya ke kara samun ci gaba mai yawa, sannan kuma da mulkin mallaka na yammacin turai ke cikin rikici da raguwa, hakan ya ba da damar numfashi da sararin samaniya ga kasashen kudancin duniya don bin sabbin hanyoyin raya tattalin arziki, ciki har da tsarin gurguzu, kamar yadda muke gani a kasar Sin. , kamar yadda muke gani a Vietnam, kamar yadda muke gani a Lao, a Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia.
“Duk wadannan kasashe suna cikin wannan kuma abin ban dariya ne saboda an ce mu saurari, kamar, ka sani, Patrick Bond, wanda bature ne a Afirka ta Kudu. Ba, ina nufin ka sani, za a iya samun farar fata da suke da kyakkyawan nazari akan wannan. Dama, kamar ni Bature ne, amma kamar, zo, wani bature a Afirka ta Kudu, wanda kullum yake sukar duk wani gwagwarmayar ‘Yancin Duniya ta Kudu, kawai yana ƙarfafa irin wannan tarihin mulkin mallaka.
Gayyatar mulkin Imperialism don shiga - ba yaƙi ba - ikon haɗin gwiwar duniya
To, mene ne manufar sub-emperialism? A cikin ruhun manazarta na asali, masanin ra'ayin dogaro na Brazil Ruy Mauro Marini, ƙungiyar BRICS na iya zama. fahimta kamar yadda ba kawai acceding zuwa mulkin mallaka a cikin hanyar da aka tattauna a sama ba, inda ake yin aikin 'mataimakin sheriff' don tsarin jari-hujja na duniya. Bugu da kari, wannan wurin kuma yana nuna abin da Marini ya kira babban ikon mulkin mallaka' ''haɗin kai na adawa'' tare da manyan ƙungiyoyin Amurka-EU-UK-Japan' da manyan kamfanoni.
A matsayin misali, mambobin G20 - ciki har da kasashe biyar na BRICS da wasu sabbin mambobin BRICS + guda biyu (Argentina da Saudi Arabia) - sun amince, lokacin da aka kaddamar da gawar a karshen 2008, don daidaita hanyoyin ceto abubuwan da ke faruwa a lokacin. Western kasuwannin hada-hadar kudi. Kuma tun daga lokacin, sun kasance - wani lokacin bacin rai - a cikin jituwa (ban da Rasha da ta dace da takunkumi na kudi da kuma kwace kadarorin don ci gaba da yunƙurinta na sake mayar da Ukraine mulkin mallaka - da fatan a ƙarshe a juya shi don ramawar yaƙi).
Tushen hadewar daular/suba-daular da za a samu a cikin shekarun 1990s na aikin manufofin neoliberal. Tun daga lokacin da yammacin duniya ke iko da masu hada-hadar kudi na bangarori daban-daban, WTO da UNFCCC ba su kadai ba, har ma da manyan kamfanoni na BRICS. Irin wannan matsayin sub-emperial, Marini shawara a cikin 1972 lokacin da aka kwatanta Brazil, yana wakiltar "nau'in da tsarin jari-hujja ya dogara da shi yayin da ya kai matakin cin gashin kansa da babban jari." Ana buƙatar faɗaɗa waje don ci gaba da samun riba a matakin da aka yarda da shi kamar yadda al'umma ke tsayawa, saboda "taro babban birni dangane da babban amfani da talakawan ma'aikata - birane da karkara - da kuma bayyanar da mulkin mallaka, godiya ga rikicin. , ta ikon mallakar masana'antu da kuma na kasa da kasa da babban jari na kudi."
Don kwatanta yadda wannan ya bayyana a rukunin BRICS na Johannesburg, a cikin littafin 2019 bayan mutuwa, Marxist Samir Amin na Masar ya fashe game da Afirka ta Kudu wanda, "'yantar da shi daga mummunan mulkin wariyar launin fata, yanzu yana fuskantar babban kalubale mai tsanani: ta yaya za a wuce facade na dimokuradiyya mai launin fata don canza al'umma sosai? Zaɓuɓɓukan gwamnatin ƙasar Afirka, har ya zuwa yanzu, sun kauce wa tambayar, saboda haka, babu abin da ya canza. An ƙarfafa rawar da Afirka ta Kudu ta taka na mulkin mallaka, har yanzu tana mamaye da ita kamar yadda ta kasance ta hannun masu haƙar ma'adinai na Anglo-Amurka."
Tuni a cikin 2015, Amin ya rubuta a Bincike a cikin watanni muqala, "Contemporary imperialism," inda ya miƙa Wannan misali game da BRICS: "Ci gaba da hare-haren da Amurka/Turai/Japan ta gama-gari na mulkin mallaka a kan dukan mutanen Kudu yana tafiya da ƙafa biyu: ƙafar tattalin arziki - tsarin mulkin mallaka na duniya wanda aka tilasta shi a matsayin keɓaɓɓen manufofin tattalin arziki; da kuma kafa na siyasa - ci gaba da shiga tsakani ciki har da yaƙe-yaƙe na riga-kafi ga waɗanda suka ƙi shiga tsakani na mulkin mallaka. Don mayar da martani, wasu ƙasashe na Kudu, irin su BRICS, sun fi yin tafiya da ƙafa ɗaya kawai: sun ƙi tsarin siyasar mulkin mallaka amma sun yarda da tsarin tattalin arziki."
Shekaru biyar da suka gabata, Siphamondli Zondi - daya daga cikin manyan hukumomin BRICS na Afirka ta Kudu, wanda ke Jami'ar Johanensburg - ya yi irin wannan batu:
"Ko da yake wasu daga cikin kasashen G20 sun fito ne daga sassan tsarin duniya kasancewar kasashe masu tasowa ne, amma sake tsara karfin ikon duniya a kai a kai yana haifar da sanya su a tsakiya da kuma zama masu kishin kasa. Sun zama abin da Immanuel Wallerstein ya kira wani yanki na yanki ko abin da Patrick Bond ke nufi da ikon mulkin mallaka. A cikin babban tsarin siyasar geopolitics, mambobin G20 daga Kudu sun zama masu aiki tare da cibiyar ikon duniya don kiyaye matsayi, suna aiki don yin gyare-gyare maimakon canji na asali."
Yayin da ake neman yin gyare-gyare a bangarori daban-daban (yawanci mai ma'ana), kasashen BRICS karkashin jagorancin kasar Sin sun dade suna inganta karfin kamfanoni a cikin tsarin samar da hadin gwiwar kamfanoni a duniya da suke shiga - tare da kara ba da kudade. A cikin wannan tsari sun tsunduma cikin faɗuwar faɗuwar riba lokacin da ake samun albarkatun ƙasa daga ƙasashe matalauta. Biyan wannan ajanda, ƙauransu na babban jarin da aka taru shima ya ƙunshi, kamar yadda David Harvey (a farkon 2003) ya yi. bayyana, zama “masu fafatawa a fagen duniya. Abin da za a iya kiransa 'sub-emperialisms' ya taso… Kowace cibiyar haɓaka babban jari ta nemi gyare-gyare na tsarin lokaci-lokaci don babban abin da ya rage ta hanyar ma'anar tasirin yanki."
Lokacin da aka zo batun 'fitowar' China har zuwa Latin Amurka, Simon Rodriguez Porras da Miguel Sorans daga 'yan adawar Venezuela na hagu. yi kuka "Dangantakar Chavism da mulkin mallaka na kasar Sin za ta sami halaye na mika kai na gaskiya. Ba wai kawai an baiwa kamfanonin kasar Sin damar shiga cikin hada-hadar hadin gwiwa ba, an kuma samu wani babban bashi daga waje tare da kasar Sin, wani bangare nasa ta hanyar sayar da mai a nan gaba, don samar da ayyukan samar da ababen more rayuwa da aka kulla da kamfanonin kasar Sin, da kuma shigo da kayayyakin kasar Sin daga waje."
Har yanzu, darektan Cibiyar Tricontinental Vijay Prashad yayi daidai bukatar “Yawancin ƙarin fassarorin zuwa zamaninmu na yanzu don tantance ko jihohin BRICS - tare da lokutansu daban-daban - na daular mulkin mallaka a ma'anar Marini. Tabbas su ba jihohin daular mulkin mallaka ba ne." Har yanzu ba su kasance ba, tabbas, galibi saboda sansanonin ƙasashen waje na Pentagon 800 da kusan dala biliyan 900 na kashe kuɗi na shekara ba su da abokin hamayyar soja, koda kuwa Rasha tana da ƙarin makaman nukiliya.
Amma wasu manyan malamai guda biyu, Sam Moyo da Paris Yeros, a cikin 2011 nuna Bambance-bambancen abubuwan zahiri na BRICS: “Matsakaicin shiga cikin aikin soja na Yammacin Turai shima ya bambanta daga wannan yanayin zuwa na gaba ko da yake, wani yana iya cewa, akwai 'schizophrenia' ga duk wannan, irin na 'ƙasa- mulkin mallaka." Abubuwan da suka shafi schizophrenia na soja sun haɗa da
- Lula na Brazil (wanda Dilma Rousseff ke biye) ya tura 36,000 sojojin zuwa Haiti a madadin Amurka da Faransa, murkushe rashin amincewar cikin gida na tsawon shekaru 13 da suka fara daga 2004;
- Burin Rasha, wanda Putin ya bayyana wa shugaban Amurka Bill Clinton a shekara ta 2000. to shiga NATO - da kuma amfanin gona na yanzu na 'yan haya na Wagner suna ƙara muhimmiyar rawa a ciki Wawashe albarkatun albarkatun kasa na Afirka a yankin Sahel da Afirka ta Tsakiya, wanda ke haɓaka gudummawar da waɗannan ƙasashe ke ci gaba da bayarwa ga sarƙoƙi na ƙimar duniya (yadda Wagner kuma ya yi ƙoƙarin yin nasara a Mozambique a cikin 2019 a madadin TotalEnergies);
- Kasancewar Indiya a cikin 'Tattaunawar Tsaro Quadrilateral' tare da Amurka, Japan da Ostiraliya, da China; ko
- Dubun-dubatar makamai na Afirka ta Kudu na kulla yarjejeniya da dakarun NATO a duk shekara ta hanyar regulator Armscor, da kuma tura sojoji 2021 zuwa kare jarin 'Methane na Jini' ta TotalEnergies da ExxonMobil a arewacin Mozambik a kan 'yan ta'addar Islama, a wani yanayi mai kama da irin rawar da aka taka - a matsayin jandariyya na hakar albarkatu na kamfanoni - da sojojin guda suka taka a cikin Jamhuriyar Afrika ta Tsakiya a 2013 kuma daga baya a gabas Jamhuriyar Demokiradiyyar Congo.
Har yanzu, haɗin gwiwar adawa a duk faɗin sassan ya kasance mai ruwa, saboda kamar yadda Justin Podur jãyayya kwanan nan a Rahoton Bayani na Black, yayin da "kowane mai mulkin mallaka lamari ne na musamman, a Afirka, an yi nazarin Afirka ta Kudu a matsayin mai mulkin mallaka ..." Amma China ko Rasha "ba ta dace da tsarin mulkin mallaka ba. Za su iya yin girman kai - ko kuma su yi takara - a yankunansu, amma ba sa yin hakan a karkashin inuwar mulkin Amurka." Gaskiya ne, amma yayin da dakarun siyasa ke ci gaba da kasancewa cikin juzu'i yayin da rikice-rikice daban-daban ke ci gaba da warware batutuwan da suka gabata, ana iya cewa kasar Sin tana da dabi'u da yawa na yin amfani da karfi (ta hanyar tsarin aikin bakin haure), tare da hadin gwiwar kasashen yammaci, neoliberal. multilaterals da kuma fadada yanki. Kuma har yanzu tattalin arzikin kasar Sin yana cikin mawuyacin hali babban jari mai yawa yana buƙatar gyara sararin samaniya.
Don haka yayin da Beijing ke ba (kamar yadda Prashad ya lura) ikon 'daular mulkin mallaka' a yau ta hanyar mafi yawan ma'auni ciki har da ikon kula da cibiyoyi da yawa, duk da haka Xi a cikin 2017 ya yi tsayin daka. Alama Sha'awar gwamnatinsa na karbar sandar fadada jari-hujja ya wuce a taron tattalin arzikin duniya, kamar yadda aka maye gurbinsa da Barack Obama mai ra'ayin kariyar baki Donald Trump. A matsayin wata alama ta zamani a cikin 2023, magajinsa, Joe Biden, wanda ke da niyyar kawar da China daga manyan hanyoyin fasaha na babban birnin kasar ya kara habaka Sinophobia kawai - wanda ke ba da shawarar yadda dangantakar Amurka da wani yanki mai dogaro gaba daya. Abokin huldar daular zai iya rikidewa zuwa wata babbar hamayya tsakanin sarakunan daular, musamman idan Taiwan ko tekun kudancin China ta zama wuraren gasar soji.
A Rasha hali ne haƙĩƙa mafi wuya a kwatanta, yafi saboda dan damfara halin sub-imperialism kamar yadda Putin ya yi. Yunkurin mamayar da ya yi wa Ukraine ya karya ka'idojin yadda aka saba barin gendarme na yanki ya yi yawo (ko da yake ya rabu da shi a Crimea shekaru takwas da suka gabata), kamar yadda ya yi. tsoho A kan bashin kasashen waje a watan Yuni 2022. A karshen batu, ko da yake, Ministan Kudi na Rasha Anton Siluanov da tabbaci ya bayyana cewa sha'awar don biyan bashin: “Halin da ake ciki a yanzu ba shi da wani abin da ya kamance da yanayin da aka yi a shekara ta 1998, lokacin da Rasha ba ta da isassun hanyoyin da za ta iya biyan basussukan ta. Yanzu akwai kudi kuma akwai kuma shirye-shiryen biya." A watan Mayu 2023 Siluanov ƙoƙari don maido da darajar bashi ta hanyar biyan bashin Eurobond duk da takunkumin da kasashen yamma suka kakaba mata.
Kuma kamar yadda Putin zai yi nuni akai-akai, ikon daular har ila yau, ya yi kaca-kaca a karshen watan Fabrairun 2022 ta hanyar saurin satar dala biliyan 650 na babban bankin kasar Rasha da kuma kudaden oligarch da aka bari a bankunan kasashen Yamma ba tare da kulawa ba (wanda ya saba wa haƙƙin mallaka na asali) da kuma yanke Rasha daga tsarin biyan kuɗi na banki. Bugu da ƙari, ɗabi'ar 'yan damfara a baya sun haɗa da faɗaɗa gabas da NATO ba dole ba ne a kan alkawuran da shugabannin yammacin Turai suka yi a farkon shekarun 1990 ga takwarorinsu na Rasha, da kuma gazawar Washington na yin biyayya ga yarjejeniyar Minsk lokacin da sauran jam'iyyun suka yarda.
Nauyi biyu na mulkin mallaka da mulkin mallaka
Daya daga cikin manyan masana tattalin arziki na zamantakewa-demokiradiyya na duniya, Branko Milanovic, zamana daya daga cikin jawaban masu fatan BRICS game da taron kolin Johannesburg:
"Ba za a iya yin watsi da batun cewa karuwar adadin kasashe na son shiga BRICS ba. Kin amincewar BRICS a cikin sabbin kasuwancin duniya, wakili ko yaƙe-yaƙe na iya sa irin waɗannan yaƙe-yaƙe su yi ƙasa da ƙasa. Kuma karfin tattalin arzikin BRICS na iya taimakawa wajen rage wasu daga cikin rashin daidaiton tattalin arziki da ke tsakanin kasashe masu arziki, masu matsakaicin kudin shiga, da matalauta a duk fadin duniya."
Ana iya juyar da waɗannan jumloli guda uku cikin sauƙi, tare da ƙarin bincike. Kasancewar karuwar adadin kasashe na son shiga BRICS iya a yi watsi da su a yi wasa da su, ganin cewa kungiyar tana da ba a cika ba wani abu m a cikin shekaru 15 da suka gabata (musamman idan aka zo ga labarin ƙasa). Kuma kamar yadda taron na Johannesburg ya tabbatar, ba su da ikon ci gaba har ma da rudimentary de-dollarization (banda wani ƙaramin-ƙaramar haɓakawa cikin cin karo da cin karo da kuɗaɗen gida da kasuwanci).
Bugu da ƙari, ci gaba da shiga cikin BRICS a cikin sababbin kasuwancin duniya, wakilai ko yaƙe-yaƙe na ainihi sun sa irin waɗannan yaƙe-yaƙe sun fi dacewa, idan aka ba da cewa:
- 1) tsarin "deglobalization" na duniya (ƙananan ciniki/GDP fiye da mafi girma a 2008) ya kasance. mafi yanke hukunci na kusan dukkanin kasashen BRICS+, a wani bangare saboda rawar da kasar Sin ta taka a rikicin jari-hujja na duniya fiye da kima;
- 2) Indiya tana ƙara shingen kariya ga saka hannun jari da kasuwancin China, tare da bin tsarin Trump-Biden;
- 3) Sabon Bankin Ci Gaban BRICS har yanzu yana da niyyar sanya takunkumin kudi a kan Rasha; kuma
- 4) Kasashen BRICS+ suna ci gaba da ciyar da yakin basasa mafi hatsari a duniya da yake-yake kai tsaye, abin da Iran ta baiwa Rasha jiragen yaki marasa matuki, Afirka ta Kudu ta sayar da makamai ga kasashen NATO da kuma sayen AK47 na baya-bayan nan daga kasar Rasha domin amfani da sojojin Pretoria wajen yakar 'yan tawayen arewacin Mozambique; da Brazil tana ba da jiragen Embraer (da alama maras ƙarfi) ga ƙungiyar Wagner; da dai sauransu da dai sauransu.
Har ila yau, karfin tattalin arzikin BRICS yana kara habaka rashin daidaiton tattalin arziki da ke kara fitowa fili a tsakanin kasashe masu arziki, masu matsakaicin ra'ayi, da matalauta a duk fadin duniya, bisa la'akari da irin rawar da kasar Sin ke takawa a fannin rarraba ma'aikata a duniya, wanda ke tabbatar da samar da ma'adinan zamani na kamfanonin kasar Sin. Hakowa daga Afirka bai isa ya rama al'ummar nahiyar ba, kuma barnar yanayi tana kara ta'azzara.
A cikin wannan mahallin, taron BRICS da aka yi a Johannesburg bai kasance wani ɗan ƙaramin ci gaba ba game da ɗimbin ɗimbin yawa da masu kawo sauyi a duniya suke so ba, ko lokacin da Escobar ya samu. sa zuciya. Lokaci ne mafi ƙasƙanci ga duk waɗanda abin ya shafa, koda kuwa tabbatar da cewa lokacin ya fi mahimmanci ga BRICS fiye da tsakiyar 2022 a kungiyar nadir. Amma idan aka yi la'akari da ma'auni na ƙarfi, duk tashoshi na alama suna nuni zuwa wata hanya mara kyau. A ciki Bude Veins na Latin Amurka, Marubucin Uruguay Eduardo Galeano aka bayyana ta yaya, a kan Paraguay, masu mulki na Brazil da Argentina "sun fara juyi tun 1870 suna jin daɗin ganimar ganima. Amma suna da nasu giciye da za su ɗauka daga ikon daular mulkin wannan lokacin. Paraguay tana da nauyi biyu na mulkin mallaka da mulkin mallaka."
Haka kuma sauran mu: kamar yadda Galeano bayyana, "Sub-emperialism yana da fuska dubu." Hanyoyi biyu na BRICS - idan aka fuskanci kafafun siyasa da tattalin arziki na mulkin mallaka, kamar yadda Amin ya ce - za ta ci gaba da ba da mamaki ga mutane da yawa waɗanda suka yarda da shugabannin daular mulkin mallaka lokacin da suke magana a hagu, kuma suna makanta don ganin su lokacin tafiya daidai.
Kusan dukkanin BRICS sun nuna fasalin tsattsauran ra'ayi da cin zarafi, don haka ya dace a ce wurin da taron kolin ya kasance Johannesburg, wanda daya daga cikin manyan kasashen duniya ke jagoranta. manyan masu aikata laifuka (wanda aka fi kwanan nan a cikin PwC's'Binciken Laifukan Tattalin Arziki da Zamba' kawai ta hanyar kasuwanci daga Mumbai da Shanghai) da kuma birni mafi rashin daidaito a duniya, a cikin kasa mafi rashin daidaito a duniya. Buri kawai shine fadada ƙungiyoyin zamantakewar al'umma waɗanda suka bayyana a cikin gwagwarmaya dubu a ciki da kewayen ƙasashen BRICS + a cikin 'yan shekarun nan, ciki har da amma ba'a iyakance ga waɗanda ba su da ƙasa na Brazil, zuwa masu fafutukar yaƙi da Rasha, zuwa ƙungiyoyin mutane daban-daban na Indiya, zuwa Masu zanga-zangar nuna adalci a zaman jama'a na kasar Sin tare da 'yan Uyghers, 'yan Tibet da 'yan dimokiradiyya na Hong Kong suna fuskantar danniya, ga ma'aikatan Afirka ta Kudu har yanzu masu fafutuka, mazauna shake, masu fafutukar kare lafiyar jama'a da dalibai.
Kadan daga cikin waɗannan an nuna su a brics-daga-kasa zanga-zanga a Sandton da kuma tsakiya Durban a ranar 23 ga Agusta, ciki har da hadin kan Ukraine, hakkin Dan-adam (ciki har da Kashmiris da kuma Musulmi a Indiya), kuma musamman canjin yanayi da kuma anti-extractivism. Ƙungiyoyin Ma'adinai da Ma'adinai suka shafa United in Action network, alal misali, ya bukaci cewa ya kamata BRICS "ta fita daga tsarin mulkin mallaka na mulkin mallaka na hakar dukiya, kuma ta ba da fifiko ga zamantakewa da tattalin arziki na rabon arzikin ma'adinai a cikin tsarin Canjin Adalci."
Sannan kuma tada sabbin abubuwa na BRICS+: masu fafutukar yaki da bashi da iskar gas na Argentina, masu fafutukar kare hakkin dan Adam na Masar da kuma matan Iran. Kuma a zagaye na gaba na fadada, watakila zamu hadu da masu ci gaba na Aljeriya wadanda suka farfado da juyin juya halin Larabawa a cikin 2019, 'yan asalin Bolivia da muhalli, masu ra'ayin ci gaba na Honduras, Kazakh masu adawa da masu mulki wadanda aka murkushe zanga-zangar a farkon 2022 da makami na Afirka ta Kudu, yawancin Najeriya. masana muhalli da ƙungiyoyin jama'a, masu fafutuka na Falasdinu marasa lafiya na sulhun Fatah da wariyar launin fata ta Isra'ila, 'yan dimokuradiyyar Senegal, da sauran su… Wadanda ke adawa da mulkin mallaka da kuma ikon sub-emperial kuma yana da fuska dubun fushi, kuma dole ne yanzu ya sami tsoka don daidaitawa.
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