Umthombo: I-Independent Media Institute
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Ngibhala lokhu emacaleni angama-585,000 asebenzayo emhlabeni wonke, ukufa kwabantu abangama-26,000, futhi kuneChina neKorea kuphela okubonakala kungaphansi kohlobo oluthile lokulawula (ngisebenzisa ithuluzi lemethrikhi yezenhlalo, Worldomet kuyinto). Iphakethe lokuvuselela elimenyezelwe uhulumeni wase-US liku-$2 trillion, kodwa ngaphandle kokuvikelwa kwemisebenzi, ukubanjwa kwerenti, noma ukwesekwa kwemali engenayo okunengqondo kubantu abaningi. Ungafinyelela kuphi ama-analogi ukuze usisize siqonde isikhathi? Inkinga yengculazi? I Inkinga yezomnotho ka-2008? I-SARS?
Isifaniso ngasinye singathwebula ingxenye yendaba. NgoMashi 23, uTrump wantanta umqondo wokubuyisela wonke umuntu emsebenzini kungakapheli amasonto, eshaya indiva izeluleko zososayensi bezempilo yomphakathi. Lokhu kufane nokuphika kukaJair Bolsonaro eBrazil kanye nenkulumo ka-Boris Johnson yokuqala yokufuna “ukungavikeleki komhlambi” “ngokukuthatha esilevini,” ongqongqoshe bakhe ababuyela emuva ezinsukwini ezimbalwa kamuva. Kulolu daba oluthile, ukubekwa eqhulwini kokuqagela kwezomnotho kunokwesayensi, kunokufaniswa okukodwa okucacile nombuso omkhulu wokugcina: UMbuso WaseBrithani, onothando lwawo olukhethekile lokulamba okukhulu kwezigidi.
Njengoba uMbuso WaseBrithani wanda ngekhulu le-18, izihlakaniphi zawo zakha isethi ephelele yemibono yombuso: ezomnotho zakudala. U-Adam Smith Umcebo Wezizwe yanyatheliswa ngo-1776, ngemva kwezimpi eziningi zokuqothula abantu boMdabu emazweni aseMelika nasekuqaleni koMbuso eNdiya. UDavid Ricardo, uThomas Malthus, noJohn Stuart Mill bonke benza iminikelo yabo embonweni wakudala. Ngokushesha nje lapho ama-imperialists ehlanganisa ukulawula kwawo, ahlakaza izinhlelo zohulumeni basekhaya zokuvimbela indlala enkulu kanye nendlala kulo lonke elaseNdiya. UShashi Tharoor uwabhale encwadini yakhe, Inglorious Empire: kusukela eBengal ngo-1770, kwaqhubekela eMadras, eDelhi naseBombay kwaze kwaba ngu-1943. Ekhulwini lama-20 kuphela, abantu abayizigidi ezingu-35 babulawa indlala eyayibuswa iBrithani eNdiya.
Egameni lezimfundiso ezifanayo, amaNgisi nawo alambisa ama-Ireland. Indlala yamazambane yango-1845-9 yawa ngalesi sikhathi, futhi ama-Ireland aba yizisulu zezimfundiso ezifanayo. U-Edward O'Boyle ngo-2006 yaxhumanisa ezomnotho zakudala nendlala yase-Ireland futhi yahlonza izimiso zezomnotho zakudala njengalezi: 1. umthetho wokuzizuzisa wena; 2. umthetho wokuncintisana mahhala; 3. umthetho wabantu; 4. umthetho wokufunwa nokuhlinzekwa; 5. umthetho wensimbi wamaholo; 6. umthetho wokuqashisa; kanye 7. nemfundiso yohwebo lwamahhala. Ihlanganiswe ndawonye, le mithetho, njengomgxeki u-Karl Polanyi wabhala yemakethe ezishintshayo, “ayinakuba khona isikhathi eside ngaphandle kokucekela phansi ingqikithi yomuntu nemvelo yomphakathi; kwakuyombhubhisa ngokoqobo umuntu futhi kuguqule indawo yakhe ezungezile ibe ihlane.”
Phakathi nenye yendlala eningi yaseNdiya (eNingizimu yeNdiya, 1876-78), isekela laseBrithani uLord Lytton lathi, “akufanele kube nokuphazanyiswa kwanoma yiluphi uhlobo kuhulumeni ngenjongo yokunciphisa intengo yokudla.” UJohn Hari ixoxa indaba yesinye isikhulu saseBrithani, uSir Richard Temple, okwathi, lapho ethenga kwamanye amazwe ukudla ukuze anikeze abalambileyo ngesinye isikhathi indlala, wagxekwa Economist ngokunikeza amaNdiya umbono wokuthi “kuwumsebenzi kaHulumeni ukuwagcina ephila.”
Phakathi nalowo mbuso, ithiyori yezomnotho yakudala kanye nendlala kuhlangene ngaphandle komthungo nokucwasa ephuzwini elinobuthi. U-O'Boyle ucaphuna ngo-1875 Ukufundwa isazi sezomnotho sakudala uWilliam Stanley Jevons: “indlala igcina ibhekwe njengohlobo oluthile lwesenzakalo esingokwemvelo… impi iyisimo esivamile sezinto, emiphakathini yakuqala. AmaNdiya aseNyakatho Melika, ngokwesibonelo, ukuphela komsebenzi wawo onzima, okuwukuphela kwawo ukuzijabulisa, kwakuyimpi... indlela ama-Irish aphila ngayo, ikakhulukazi, kwamanye amadolobha ethu amakhulu nakwezinye izingxenye zezwe lawo, ikwenza kube yinto ebaluleke kakhulu ukuthi kufa ngokushesha."
AmaNgisi ayenombuso wendlala. Siphila embusweni wezigwebo. Njengoba i-Iran, iVenezuela, kanye neGaza ziqhekeka ngaphansi kobhubhane nokuvinjezelwa ngasikhathi sinye, osomlomo bacela i-US ukuthi imise lo bhubhane. izigwebo kuze kudlule le nkinga yamanje. Kwanhlanga zimuka nomoya: Ukubulawa kwabantu abaningi okulawulwa kude kuqine kakhulu ipulangwe lenqubomgomo yase-US ukuthi lingamiswa phezu kokuthile okuncane njengobhubhane lomhlaba wonke.
Ezomnotho ziye zalungiswa ngezinga elingakanani phakathi namakhulu eminyaka? Isekelwe kangakanani ebufakazini? Inqwaba yezincwadi ezivela kwizazi ezingaphandle nje kwezomnotho ezijwayelekile zithi, "hhayi kakhulu." Emuva ngo-2001, i-heterodox economist UJames Galbraith wabhala i-athikili eveza iziphakamiso ezinhlanu ezamukelwa kabanzi zomsebenzi wezomnotho wanamuhla (“Ukwehla kwamandla emali kuyisimo semali”; “Umsebenzi ogcwele ngaphandle kokwehla kwamandla emali awunakwenzeka”; “Ukungalingani kwamaholo okukhuphukayo kubangelwa ushintsho lwezobuchwepheshe”; “Amaholo amancane akhuphukayo abangela ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi”; “Isimeme ukukhula angeke kudlule amaphesenti angu-2.5 ngonyaka”), ukuthi ngamunye wabo wachithwa kanjani ngobufakazi bezomnotho, nokuthi baqhubeka kanjani nokubanjwa naphezu kobufakazi. Ngawo lowo nyaka, isazi sezomnotho sase-Australia esine-heterodox uSteve Keen sashicilela I-Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences, mayelana nokwehluleka kwethiyori kanye nokokusebenza kwe-orthodoxy evamile. Ngemva kweminyaka eyishumi, encwadini I-ECONned, u-Yves Smith uqoqe i-lithany yezindlela zokuqagela okwakhiwa kuzo amamodeli ezomnotho zingabambi idatha (kusuka ekulinganeni kwemakethe kuye kwijika lesidingo). Imisebenzi efanayo yandile, kanjalo nezindlela ezithakazelisayo ezithinta umnotho wangempela ezinqatshwa abezomnotho abajwayelekile.
I-instream kubikwa ukuthi ivalekile emibonweni ehlukile kangangokuthi emanyuvesi, osomnotho abahlukahlukene bathunyelwa ezinhlotsheni ezahlukene zezinhlelo ezifana nezomnotho wezepolitiki e-Stanford, noma izifundo zezomnotho nenqubomgomo e-Notre Dame, eyahlukaniswa noMnyango Wezomnotho ngo-2003. yase yavalwa ngo-2010. ENyuvesi yaseManitoba, ukungqubuzana phakathi kwe-orthodox kanye ne-heterodox economics kwaba okukhulu kangangokuthi i-Canadian Association of University Teachers yenza kanjalo. uphenyo lomnyango ngo-2015.
Isayensi isebenza ngendlela ehlukile. Njengoba u-Einstein akubeka, isayensi iwukuthuthuka kokucabanga kwansuku zonke. Kimi, isayensi ukusetshenziswa okuhlelekile kwekhwalithi yomuntu yelukuluku.
Kunezazi eziningi ezicabanga ngokwesayensi—ezisebenzisa ukucabangela okusobala nendlela ehlelekile yokubonisana futhi zifinyelele iziphetho ngobufakazi—mayelana nezomnotho. Kepha lezi zifundiswa azifakiwe emkhakheni wezomnotho, futhi wumkhakha wezomnotho — nokuqagela kwawo okungabambeki kanye nokudelela amaqiniso ezomnotho — owakha amamodeli abeka inqubomgomo ngesikhathi sezinhlekelele nobhubhane.
Isimemezelo sikaTrump sokuthi ufuna amabhizinisi aphinde avulwe emasontweni ambalwa abangele ingxoxo yokuthi alalele osomnotho noma odokotela. Lena akuyona ingxabano phakathi kwesayensi emibili—odokotela kuphela abenza isayensi lapha.
Amagciwane adlule nezingqinamba zangaphambilini zingasinika amacebo kuphela. Imininingwane ebaluleke kakhulu esinayo mayelana nale nkinga ivela emazweni efike kuqala kunawo wonke—i-China, Korea, Italy, Iran. Noma yikuphi ukumodela esikwenzayo kufanele kuqale kule datha, futhi noma yimiphi imibono emihle yokuthi singadlula kanjani kulokhu kufanele idlule ocwaningweni lwalezi zibonelo.
UTrump kanye nelungelo lomhlaba wonke elimlandelayo (uBolsonaro, uJohnson, njll.) bayayidelela isayensi ye-epidemiological njengoba nje bedelela isayensi yesimo sezulu futhi ngenxa yezizathu ezifanayo: isayensi imayelana namaqiniso angqubuzana nemibono yabo futhi iphazamisa inkulumo-ze yabo. Isayensi icacile ukuthi ukusindisa izimpilo kuzobandakanya ukuphazamiseka okuthile ohambweni lwabacebe kakhulu oluya ekubhujisweni komphakathi kanye nemvelo. Yini umbhali wezinganekwane zesayensi uKim Stanley Robinson kusho eminyakeni eyishumi edlule mayelana nesayensi yesimo sezulu kuyiqiniso kulo mzuzu: “Osekusunguliwe futhi okudlalayo manje impi enkulu yomlando womhlaba phakathi kwesayensi nobunxiwankulu. Isayensi igcizelela kakhulu nsuku zonke ukuthi lokhu kuyingozi yangempela nekhona manje. Ubungxiwankulu buthi akunjalo, ngoba ukube bekuyiqiniso bekuzosho ukulawula okuningi kukahulumeni kwezomnotho, ubulungiswa obengeziwe bezenhlalo (njengesu lokuzinzisa isimo sezulu) nokunye. ”
Uma silalela, isayensi ingasisiza ngalesi sikhathi. Ukulandela izibonelo zezomnotho, ngakolunye uhlangothi, kuzokwenza abantu babulawe ngokuqinisekile njengoba kwenza ekhulwini leminyaka elidlule.
Lesi sihloko sakhiwe ngu I-Globetrotter, iphrojekthi ye-Independent Media Institute.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa kuphela ngokuphana kwabafundi bayo.
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