资料来源:外交政策焦点
We will always play catch-up with these wily viruses if we continue our all-out war on the environment
Photo by Oliver Cole/Shutterstock.com
Congress is already thinking about how to prevent the next pandemic.
See how quickly Cory Booker (D-NJ) has teamed up with Lindsey Graham (R-SC) to write a letter calling for a global ban on “wet markets.” The current pandemic is reputed to have originated in a wet market in the Chinese city of Wuhan. So, having identified what they believe to be the root of the problem, these politicians want to eliminate it.
In an era of political polarization, even modest bipartisan action is noteworthy — and cause for suspicion.
Booker and Graham could have benefited humanity by reaching across the aisle to do pretty much anything other than co-writing that letter. If they’d done just a little homework, they would have discovered that a “wet market” is any place that sells perishable goods like meat and produce — as opposed to a “dry market” where you can get appliances.
Wet markets are a vital part of life in most of the world. Only some sell the kind of wildlife, dead or alive, that can generate zoonotic diseases like COVID-19. Your local farmers market, for instance, qualifies as a wet market. “Calling for a ban on all wet markets based on the Wuhan wet market, which purportedly sold live wildlife, is like banning all pet ownership based on what goes down in Tiger King,” 写入 Martha Cheng in 大西洋.
It also might seem strange for Congress to focus attention on the next pandemic when it has done such a lousy job dealing with the current pandemic. Instead of dictating policies to other countries, the senators should be doing more to ensure that state authorities have testing kits, hospitals have critical supplies, and citizens have the economic wherewithal to survive the ongoing economic downturn.
Instead of going far afield to find blame, Booker and Graham could have found a worthier target right down the block. The Trump administration, through its overwhelming incompetence, has turned the United States into an enormous Petri dish of infection. By threatening to restart the economy without either squashing the curve or ensuring that enough testing kits and a tracing system are in place, Trump is threatening to offer up thousands of new hosts for this novel coronavirus.
然后 canceling U.S. contributions to the World Health Organization this week, President The-Buck-Stops-Anywhere-But-Here is kneecapping the one global institution that can help save us from the next pandemic. “The WHO failed in its basic duty and must be held accountable,” Trump said by way of explanation.
According to that logic, I can cancel my federal tax payments this year.
When I was preparing to write this column about the next pandemic, I discovered that I’d already done so: in 一篇文章 for the South Korean newspaper Hankyoreh.
在2014中。
So, before I return to what the world is doing now to prevent the next COVID-19 outbreak, let’s step back for a moment to September 2014, when the world was confronting the specter of Ebola. That episode contains some important lessons for today.
早在2014
In the South Korean movie 主人, the American military pours formaldehyde into the Han River and inadvertently creates a monster. This freak of nature not only goes on a murderous rampage but also is the host of a deadly virus. The movie, inspired by a real-life incident of contamination, is a cautionary tale of the consequences of tampering with the environment.
乍一看,目前西非爆发的埃博拉疫情似乎与此类生态问题无关。这场鼠疫已夺去了利比里亚、塞拉利昂和几内亚等国 1,400 多人的生命,很可能是由 2013 年 XNUMX 月在几内亚东部偏远地区一只被感染的果蝠咬伤了一名幼儿造成的。从那里迅速传播到城市地区,然后跨越国界。从今年夏天开始,它就占据了各大媒体的头条新闻。八月,它几乎盖过了在华盛顿举行的非洲领导人峰会。
埃博拉病毒是出血热的一种形式。它的死亡率非常高。尽管目前正在测试几种实验药物,但尚无已知的疫苗。过去曾发生过几次埃博拉疫情,但大多发生在偏远地区。自 1976 年首次出现在刚果地区以来,埃博拉病毒已夺去了约 3,000 人的生命。
尽管媒体对当前疫情的关注不断增加,但埃博拉病毒并不是非洲当今面临的最紧迫的医疗问题。每天有 2,000 名非洲儿童死于腹泻。每分钟就有一名非洲儿童死于疟疾。仅 2011 年,就有 1.2 万非洲人死于艾滋病毒/艾滋病。埃博拉疫情必须增加数百倍才能与这些数字相匹配。
这些疾病的影响之所以如此悲惨,是因为有效的治疗方法可以将死亡率降至接近于零。就腹泻而言,这意味着干净的水和卫生设施;对于疟疾,这意味着蚊帐和处方药;对于艾滋病毒/艾滋病,这意味着抗逆转录病毒治疗。到目前为止,资金还不足以解决这些问题。
Diarrhea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS no longer threaten lives at an epidemic level in industrialized countries. Ebola threatens to be something quite different, since it has resisted treatment. The media has covered the Ebola outbreak so extensively in part because of fears that the disease could spread beyond Africa. Books like The Hot Zone and movies like Contagion have primed people to expect the next major pandemic to emerge any day. But because of the way it spreads — through direct contact with infected bodily fluids — Ebola is not likely to become the next pandemic.
Another reason the media loves to write about Ebola is because it fits comfortably into a neo-colonial view of Africa as a place of barbaric customs such as eating “bush meat.” The consumption of infected chimpanzee or bat meat has been linked in the past to Ebola outbreaks. In this case, however, the outbreak had nothing to do with eating anything. And plenty of people in America eat “bush meat,” which we simply call “game” — venison, boar, and squirrels — and few people consider that to be barbaric.
当然,埃博拉病毒因其传播速度而令人担忧。埃博拉病毒传播如此之快的原因之一是非洲的医务人员在应对这些其他疾病时已经捉襟见肘。
但埃博拉病毒传播的另一个原因是环境。当前的埃博拉疫情与以往的所有疫情不同,它是从偏远地区蔓延到城市中心。发生这种情况的部分原因是森林砍伐。
The area where this strain of Ebola first appeared — the Western Guinean Lowland Forests — have been cut down by loggers or to make way for farmers. West Africa as a whole has been losing more forests annually — nearly a million hectares — than any other place in the world. Humans are venturing into places that were hitherto largely untouched.
换句话说,该地区的居民现在比以往任何时候都更有可能接触埃博拉病毒携带者。而且他们之间也会有更多的接触,为疾病的传播创造更多的机会。
非洲森林的环境破坏很可能导致更多的疾病爆发。它可能会蔓延到医疗基础设施不足的地区。但如果我们要担心下一次全球流行病,它更有可能来自流感或非典,而不是埃博拉。
Still, we should be concerned about how our changing environment affects the spread of disease. Rising temperatures connected to human activity — global warming — has been linked to the spread of malaria and the greater incidence of flu epidemics. We simply don’t know what alteration of the environment will trigger a calamitous pandemic.
在结束时 主人, the monster dies. And eventually the current Ebola outbreak will burn out. But if we continue to treat our environment as a place to dump our garbage, the garbage will eventually come back and haunt us. It won’t take the form of a science fiction monster. But Ebola, malaria, and SARS can be just as lethal as anything the movies have dreamed up for us.
Lessons Moving Forward
That outbreak of Ebola would last for two-and-a-half years and claim 超过11,000人死亡 in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
In 2018, meanwhile, 405,000 people died of malaria, 94 percent of them in Africa. Also that year, 770,000人死亡 of AIDS-related illnesses. And diarrheal diseases like rotavirus, cholera, and shigella kill more people than homicide, suicide, military conflict, and terrorism 结合: nearly 1.6的2017万人 versus 1.35 million deaths from those other causes.
So far, COVID-19 has killed about 128,000 people. In the United States, 26,000 people have died, and the latest predictions are that 关于69,000 will perish here by the time the pandemic fades. If that rate of increase holds across the globe — with lower rates in some countries and higher rates in others — then COVID-19 will be responsible for about 340,000 deaths.
That’s a lot of people. And it could be a lot more if this coronavirus becomes entrenched in countries with little medical infrastructure, in overcrowded refugee camps, or in places without water for hand-washing. But this estimate of around 340,000 fatalities doesn’t approach the 全年 death tolls of the other diseases.
Of course, this projected death toll for COVID-19 already takes into account significant countermeasures (social distancing, economic lockdown) to avoid the kind of horrific death tolls associated with past pandemics, like the Spanish flu of 1918 that left as many as 50 million dead.
But why hasn’t the industrialized world funded similar efforts to radically reduce malaria deaths? Could it be because the disease isn’t infectious and doesn’t threaten the Global North?
Nor has the global response to COVID-19 addressed the root causes of the pandemic. Wet markets, as with bush meat and Ebola, are not the ultimate precipitating factors. UN Environmental Program head Inger Anderson is looking at the same data as Booker and Graham about the source of zoonotic diseases and has come to very different conclusions. “Never before have so many opportunities existed for pathogens to pass from wild and domestic animals to people,” she 告诉 此 监护人. “Our continued erosion of wild spaces has brought us uncomfortably close to animals and plants that harbor diseases that can jump to humans.”
It’s not just deforestation. Climate change plays a role too. “As the planet heats up, animals big and small, on land and in the sea, are headed to the poles to get out of the heat,” 解释 Aaron Bernstein of Harvard’s Center of Climate, Health and the Global Environment. “That means animals are coming into contact with other animals they normally wouldn’t, and that creates an opportunity for pathogens to get into new hosts.”
The scientific community, funded by governments and private foundations, is focused on preventing the next pandemic. The search is on for an antiviral drug that can either mess with the way this coronavirus reproduces or, as Matthew Hutson 解释 in “纽约客”, alter the cellular mechanisms of the human host to address a suite of viruses. The Pentagon’s R & D arm DARPA, meanwhile, is 研究 how to stop a pandemic even further back in the chain of infection by identifying and vaccinating the animal hosts. The idea is to prevent the leap of infectious disease from animal to human in the first place.
These scientific efforts are admirable and necessary. But even stopping pandemics before they make the leap to humans is intervening too late in the process. We will always play catch-up with these wily viruses if we continue our all-out war on the environment.
Yes, we need a coronavirus truce in the various military conflicts around the world. More fundamentally, we need a truce in our assault on the planet.
If we don’t pay substantial reparations to make good our relationship with Mother Earth, she will continue to send us these little viral messages: stop being selfish and arrogant, pay attention to the important things in life, and for crying out loud start listening to your mother.
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