Kwiintsuku nje ezimbalwa ngaphambi kwesikhumbuzo se-14th sohlaselo lwase-US kunye nokuhlala e-Afghanistan, iinqwelomoya zase-US zabhobhoza isibhedlele esiqhutywa ngumbutho wezizwe ngezizwe othembekileyo, onobuchule, iMedicins Sans Frontieres, kumantla welizwe, kwisixeko saseKunduz. Uqhushumbo, ngokucacileyo, lwalucelwe ngurhulumente wase-Afghan, owayephulukene nesixeko kwiTaliban kwaye uhlaselo lwakhe lokuqala lwasilela.
Kwiminyaka elishumi elinesine ngaphambili, uhlaselo lwase-US luka-2001 lwalunenjongo ecacileyo yokutshintsha ulawulo, lokususa iTaliban. Iminyaka elishumi elinesine kunye namawakawaka obomi kamva, iiTaliban zisekhona, kwaye zisakwazi ukuthatha isixeko kakuhle ngaphandle kwendawo yazo yemveli yempembelelo emazantsi. Zininzi izizathu zoku kusilela. U-Ahmed Rashid wabhala kwincwadi yakhe ethi "Descent into Chaos" malunga ne "Operation Evil Airlift," apho abaxhasi beTaliban basePakistan bavunyelwe ukuba babalekele ePakistan ngo-2001. iibhombu.
Kodwa okubaluleke ngakumbi kunento yokuba amaTaliban achithachitheka ePakistan ukuba abuye kwaye alwe ngolunye usuku yayikukuba xa i-NATO igxotha iTaliban, bafaka abachasi babo: iinkosi zemfazwe ezazingahloneli Thixo kunye nogonyamelo njengeTaliban. Loo nyani itshintshile ngokucothayo nangokuyinxenye ngaphandle konyulo oluninzi ukusukela ngo-2001: izikhundla eziphezulu kunye neeofisi ezinyuliweyo zisahlala ngabaphathi bemfazwe, kwaye umkhosi wase-Afghan owakhiwe ngumsebenzi ubonakala wabelana ngeengxaki ezininzi zorhwaphilizo kunye nomkhosi wase-Iraq owenziwe yi-US ngeenxa zonke. ngexesha elinye kwaye phantse ngendlela efanayo. Ngumkhosi onobuchule ngakumbi ekutyebiseni abathetheli kunokukhusela ulongamo lwelizwe.
Ngo-2001, unyaka i-US yahlasela ngawo, ngunyaka obalulekileyo e-Afghanistan, kodwa yayingesosiqalo sezinto ezoyikisayo ezazihlala i-Afghanistan. Iimfazwe zeminyaka yoo-1980s, njengoko imanyano yaseMelika-Saudi-Pakistan yagalela utyalo-mali olungakumbi kumaqela abalweli ababesilwa norhulumente oxhaswa yiRussia, bathatha isigqibo. Emva kokuba abo balweli bephumelele ekutshintsheni ulawulo ngowe-1992, bachitha ishumi leminyaka elilandelayo besilwa yaye begqibezela ukutshatyalaliswa kwelizwe. I-Taliban yamisela ulawulo oluxengayo kuninzi lwelizwe xa i-US yahlasela ngo-2001.
Namhlanje, i-US, i-Israel, i-Saudi Kingdom, i-Turkey, kunye namanye amazwe ambalwa ngokufanayo agalela utyalo-mali oluthe kratya kumaqela abalweli (amanye amaqela afanayo njengoko ayesilwa e-Afghanistan, kuquka ne-al-Qaida) ezama ukutshintsha ulawulo e-Afghanistan. Siriya. Kukho zonke izizathu zokukholelwa ukuba ukuba utshintsho lolawulo luphumelela, abaphumeleleyo baya kuba yi-al-Qaida kunye neqela le-Islamic State. Nokuba bayalwa phakathi kwabo njengoko i-mujahadeen yase-Afghan yenza, okanye badibanise iqela le-Islamic State eSyria, e-Iraq nangaphaya, nabo, baya kugqiba ukutshabalalisa ilizwe labo. Kwiminyaka embalwa emashumi, siya kujonga imifanekiso yaseSiriya kwi-1990 kunye ne-2000 yokuqala eya kuqondwa ngokupheleleyo njengeSiriya, njenge-1960 kunye ne-1970 iifoto ze-Afghanistan azibonakali namhlanje.
Phambi kohlaselo luka-2003 lwase-Iraq, iNew York Times yabiza uluvo loluntu jikelele ngokuthi "amandla esibini". Kodwa intshukumo yokulwa nemfazwe ayiphumelelanga kwaye ayikachacha. Umgaqo ochasene nemfazwe uye waba buthathaka phakathi kwabaqhubela phambili, endaweni yenkxaso elinganiselweyo yokungenelela okulinganiselweyo kweNtshona kwiimeko ezithile, apho iibhombu zinokukwazi ukwenza okulungileyo. Amazwi amaninzi aqhubekayo anokuthi alindeleke ukuba athathe isimo sokulwa nemfazwe exhasa ibhombu kunye nokutshintsha kolawulo e-Libya ngo-2011 kwaye aqhubeke nokuxhasa utshintsho lolawulo eSiriya namhlanje. Abanye bade bacaphule iLibya njengebali lempumelelo.
Ndibabonile ababhali endibahloniphayo bephikisana okanye ndiphinda ndibhale kwakhona ukuba iSyria iye yasweleka kunye neembacu ezininzi kuneLibya ukusukela ngo-2011, ukubhukuqa u-Assad ("indlela" yokubhukuqa ihlala ingachazwanga) bekuya kuyithintela ingxaki yababaleki. I-counterfactual nayo ibonakaliswe: ukuba ngaphandle kokutshintsha kolawulo e-Libya ngo-2011, i-Libya yayiza kuvelisa ingxaki yababaleki elingana neSiriya.
Ndibafundile abanye ababhali abaqhubela phambili bexoxa ukuba "amagunya ehlabathi" kufuneka abeke "umgca obomvu" ku-Assad ngokukhawuleza kunokuba benze, kwaye ukuba baye benza njalo, kwakhona, ingxaki yaseSiriya yayiza kuthintelwa.
Ingxaki yolu hlalutyo yingcinga yokuba ulawulo lwaseSyria lwalukho ngexesha "lamandla ehlabathi" - ukuba la "magunya ehlabathi" anokuthi, xa "umgca obomvu" ubekiwe, ucinezele iqhosha kwaye utshintshiselane no-Assad ngolawulo lwentando yesininzi. iyawahlonipha amalungelo oluntu. Yile ngcinga iphosakeleyo ekhokelela ekucingeni komlingo malunga noko kunokwenziwa yiNtshona kumazwe aqhushumbayo.
UVijay Prashad uye waxoxa ukuba urhulumente waseLibya wayesele ewa xa iibhombu ze-NATO zafika ukuze zigqibezele. Amaqela axhobileyo aseLibya, apho i-NATO yanikezela ngomkhosi womoya, yenza ukubulawa kwabantu emva koloyiso lwabo eSirte nakwezinye iindawo. La maqela axhobileyo aseyinkxalabo eqhubekayo, njengoko i-US isazi. Kwaye kwakukho iziphumo ezininzi zasekhaya kunye nezamazwe ngamazwe zenzeke e-Libya ngo-2011. Enye yezi zinto kukuba amagunya angaphandle kweNtshona, ngakumbi iRashiya, abone indlela ngokungenamthungo kwenkxaso yaseNtshona "kubavukeli abaphakathi" eyakhokelela ekutshintsheni ulawulo.
Ulawulo lwaseSyria aluzange lwehle xa iNtshona iqala ukuxhasa imvukelo apho. ISiriya, ngokucacileyo, kungekhona iLibya. Kodwa hayi ngenxa yokunqongophala kokuzama yiNtshona, kunye namahlakani ayo aseSaudi, amaSirayeli kunye neTurkey. Ukutshintsha kolawulo kuye kwaba yinjongo, kodwa kuphela isiphithiphithi sibe sisiphumo. Kukho isifundo esinokufundwa kula mashumi eminyaka yokutshintsha kolawulo. Iminyaka elishumi elinesibini ukususela ekuhlaselweni kwe-Iraq, i-25 ukususela kwimfazwe yokuqala yase-US e-Iraq. Iminyaka elishumi elinesine ukususela ekuhlaselweni kwe-Afghanistan, i-35 ukususela kwinkxaso yaseNtshona ye-Afghan mujahadeen. Iziphumo: Iqela le-Islamic State kunye ne-Taliban elawula kwiindawo ezingaphuhliswanga, eziphangisiweyo, oorhulumente abonakeleyo abakhupha ubutyebi kwilizwe lonke, kunye ne-US ngamanye amaxesha ibhabha kwaye ibhobhoza into - umtshato apha, isibhedlele apho. Ukuba i-Libya ibonakala ihluke kule minyaka elishumi okanye emibini-kwaye ikude kakhulu - iya kuba naphezu kweebhomu ze-NATO, kungekhona ngenxa yazo.
Abantu abangazithandiyo ezi ziphumo akufuneki babeke ukholo kwezi ndlela. Iibhombu zaseNtshona zizixhobo zesiphithiphithi.
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