Umthombo: Independent Media Institute
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Ndibhala oku kumatyala angama-585,000 asebenzayo kwihlabathi liphela, abantu abangama-26,000 ababhubhileyo, kunye neTshayina neKorea kuphela ezibonakala ziphantsi kohlobo oluthile lolawulo (usebenzisa isixhobo semetriki yentlalo, Worldomet is). Iphakheji yovuselelo ebhengezwe ngurhulumente wase-US ikwi-2 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, kodwa ngaphandle kokhuseleko lwemisebenzi, irenti yomkhenkce, okanye inkxaso enentsingiselo yengeniso kubantu abaninzi. Kuphi ukufikelela kwi-analogies ukusinceda siqonde ixesha? Ingxaki kaGawulayo? I 2008 ingxaki yezoqoqosho? I-SARS?
Isifaniso ngasinye singabamba inxalenye yebali. Nge-23 kaMatshi, uTrump wadada umbono wokubuyisela wonke umntu emsebenzini kwiiveki nje ezimbalwa, etyeshela iingcebiso zezazinzulu zempilo yoluntu. Oku kufana nokukhanyela kukaJair Bolsonaro eBrazil kunye nentetho yokuqala ka-Boris Johnson yokufuna "ukungakhuseleki komhlambi" ngokuthi "ukuwuthatha esilevini," abathi abaphathiswa bakhe babuye emva kweentsuku ezimbalwa. Kulo mbandela ukhethekileyo, ukubeka phambili uqikelelo lwezoqoqosho ngaphezu kwezo zenzululwazi, kukho umzekeliso ocacileyo kunye nobukhosi obukhulu bokugqibela: uBukhosi baseBritani, obunomdla okhethekileyo wokubulawa yindlala kwezigidi.
Njengoko uBukhosi baseBhritane babusanda ngenkulungwane ye-18, iinkcuba-buchopho zabo zavelisa iimbono ezigqibeleleyo zobukumkani: uqoqosho lwamandulo. UAdam Smith Ubutyebi beZizwe yapapashwa ngowe-1776, emva kweemfazwe ezininzi zokubulawa kohlanga nxamnye naBemi Bomthonyama kumazwe aseMerika nasekuqaleni koBukhosi baseIndiya. UDavid Ricardo, uThomas Malthus, noJohn Stuart Mill bonke benza igalelo labo kwithiyori yamandulo. Ngokukhawuleza nje ukuba ama impiriyali aluhlanganisele ulawulo lwawo, adiliza iinkqubo zoorhulumente basekhaya zokuthintela indlala enkulu kunye nendlala kulo lonke elase-Indiya. UShashi Tharoor uzidwelise kwincwadi yakhe, UBukhosi Obumangalisayo: ukususela eBengal ngowe-1770 ukuya kutsho eMadras, eDelhi naseBombay ukuya kutsho ngowe-1943. Kwinkulungwane yama-20 kuphela, abantu abazizigidi ezingama-35 babulawa yindlala elawulwa yiBritani eIndiya.
Egameni leemfundiso ezifanayo, amaBritani nawo alambisa abantu baseIreland. Indlala yeetapile ye-1845-9 yawa ngeli xesha, kwaye ama-Irish ayengamaxhoba eemfundiso ezifanayo. Edward O'Boyle ngo-2006 yanxulumanisa uqoqosho lwamandulo kunye nendlala yaseIreland yaza yachonga imigaqo yoqoqosho lwakudala njenge: 1. umthetho wokuzingca; 2. umthetho wokhuphiswano olukhululekileyo; 3. umthetho wabantu; 4. umthetho wemfuno kunye nobonelelo; 5 umthetho wentsimbi womvuzo; 6. umthetho wokuqeshisa; kunye 7. nemfundiso yorhwebo ngokukhululekileyo. Idityaniswe kunye, le mithetho, njengomgxeki uKarl Polanyi wabhala kwimarike yokuzilungisa, “ayinakubakho ngalo naliphi na ixesha elide ngaphandle kokutshabalalisa imo yomntu nendalo yoluntu; ngekwakumtshabalalise ngokoqobo umntu ize iguqule indawo yakhe ibe yintlango.”
Ebudeni bezinye iindlala ezininzi zaseIndiya (kuMzantsi Indiya, ngowe-1876-78), isekela laseBritani uLord Lytton lavakalisa oku, “akumele kubekho ukungenelela kwalo naluphi na uhlobo kurhulumente ngenjongo yokunciphisa ixabiso lokutya.” UJohann Hari ubalisa ibali yelinye igosa laseBritani, uMhlekazi uRichard Temple, owathi, xa wayethenga kwamanye amazwe ukutya ukuze anike abalambileyo ngexesha lendlala, wagxekwa Economist ngokunika amaIndiya ingcamango yokuba “ngumsebenzi kaRhulumente ukuwagcina ephila.”
Ebudeni bobo bukhosi, ithiyori yamandulo yezoqoqosho nendlala yadibana ngokugqibeleleyo nobuhlanga kutywala obuyityhefu. U-O'Boyle ucaphula i-1875 ukufunda yingcali yezoqoqosho yamandulo uWilliam Stanley Jevons: “indlala ijongwa njengohlobo lwesiganeko sendalo… imfazwe… AmaIndiya aseMntla Merika, umzekelo, ekuphela komsebenzi wawo onzima, ekuphela kwawo ukuzonwabisa, yayiyimfazwe… kufa ngokukhawuleza.”
AmaBritani ayenobukhosi bendlala. Siphila kubukumkani bezohlwayo. Njengoko i-Iran, iVenezuela, kunye neGaza ziqhekeka phantsi kobhubhani kunye nokungqingwa, oonozakuzaku bacela i-US ukuba iyimise. izigwebo de kudlule le ngxaki yangoku. Akukho nto: Ukubulawa kwabantu abaninzi okukude kuqine kakhulu iplanki yomgaqo-nkqubo wase-US ukuba inqunyanyiswe kwinto encinci njengobhubhani wehlabathi.
Uqoqosho luye lwaphuculwa ukusa kuwuphi umkhamo ukutyhubela iinkulungwane? Isekelwe kangakanani kubungqina? Ubuninzi boncwadi oluvela kubaphengululi abangaphandle nje kwezoqoqosho eziqhelekileyo bathi, "hayi kakhulu." Emuva kwi-2001, i-economist ye-heterodox UJames Galbraith wabhala inqaku elidwelisa izindululo ezihlanu ezamkelwe ngokubanzi zomsebenzi woqoqosho lwanamhlanje (“Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso… sisenzo semali”; “Umsebenzi opheleleyo ngaphandle kokunyuka kwamaxabiso awunakwenzeka”; “Ukungalingani kwemivuzo okunyukayo kubangelwa yinguqu yobuchwepheshe”; “Ukunyuka komvuzo ophantsi kubangela intswelo-ngqesho”; ukukhula akunako ukudlula i-2.5 ekhulwini ngonyaka”), indlela ngamnye kubo ayengahlonelwa ngayo bubungqina bezoqoqosho, nendlela abaqhubeka ngayo ukubanjwa nangona kukho ubungqina. Kwangaloo nyaka, ingcali yezoqoqosho yase-Australia uSteve Keen yapapasha I-Debunking Economics: UMlawuli weNzululwazi yezeNtlalo, malunga neentsilelo zethiyori kunye neempirical ze-orthodoxy eziqhelekileyo. Kwiminyaka elishumi kamva, kwincwadi ECONned, U-Yves Smith uqokelele i-litany yeendlela zokucinga apho imodeli yezoqoqosho yakhiwe khona ayibambeli idatha (ukusuka kwi-market equilibrium ukuya kwi-curve yemfuno). Imisebenzi efanayo ixhaphakile, ngokunjalo neendlela ezinika umdla kuqoqosho lwenene ezikhatywayo ngoqoqosho oluqhelekileyo.
I-mainstream ixelwe ukuba ivaliwe kwiingcamango ezizezinye kangangokuba kwiidyunivesithi, i-economists heterodox ithunyelwa kwiintlobo ezahlukeneyo zeenkqubo ezifana noqoqosho lwezopolitiko eStanford, okanye izifundo zoqoqosho kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo e-Notre Dame, eyahlulwa kwiSebe lezoQoqosho ngo-2003. yaze yavalwa ngo-2010. KwiYunivesithi yaseManitoba, ungquzulwano phakathi kwe-orithodox kunye ne-heterodox economics lwaba lukhulu kangangokuba iCanadian Association of University Teachers yenza. uphando lwesebe ngo-2015.
Inzululwazi isebenza ngokwahlukileyo. Njengoko uEinstein esitsho, inzululwazi lucokiso lokucinga kwemihla ngemihla. Kum, isayensi ukusetyenziswa okucwangcisiweyo komgangatho womdla womntu.
Kukho abaphengululi abaninzi abacinga ngokwenzululwazi—abasebenzisa iintelekelelo ezingafihliyo kunye nendlela ecwangcisiweyo yokuqiqa baze bafikelele kwizigqibo ngobungqina—malunga noqoqosho. Kodwa aba bafundi ababandakanywanga kubuchwephesha bezoqoqosho, kwaye bubuchwephesha bezoqoqosho-kunye neengcinga zabo ezingenakuthenjwa kunye nokudelela izinto zokwenyani zoqoqosho-okwakha iimodeli ezibeka umgaqo-nkqubo ngexesha leentlekele kunye nobhubhane.
Isibhengezo sikaTrump sokuba ufuna amashishini avuleke kwakhona kwiiveki ezimbalwa sibangele ingxoxo malunga nokuba bamamele oosoqoqosho okanye oogqirha. Oku akuyiyo ingxabano phakathi kweenzululwazi ezimbini-kuphela oogqirha abenza isayensi apha.
Iintsholongwane zangaphambili kunye neentlekele zangaphambili zinokusinika iingcebiso kuphela. Eyona datha inentsingiselo esinayo malunga nale ngxaki ivela kumazwe efike kakhulu kwangethuba-iTshayina, iKorea, i-Italiya, i-Iran. Naluphi na umfuziselo esiwenzayo kufuneka luqale kule datha, kwaye naziphi na izimvo ezilungileyo zendlela esinokudlula ngayo koku kufuneka zidlule kuphononongo lwale mizekelo.
I-Trump kunye nelungelo lehlabathi elimlandelayo (uBolsonaro, uJohnson, njl.) bayayidela isayensi ye-epidemiological njengoko beyicekisa isayensi yemozulu kunye nezizathu ezifanayo: isayensi imalunga neenyani eziphikisana neengcamango zabo kwaye ziphazamisa i-propaganda yabo. Inzululwazi icacile ukuba ukusindisa ubomi kuya kubandakanya ukuphazamiseka okuthile kuhambo lwabatyebileyo kakhulu ukuya kutshabalalisa uluntu kunye nokusingqongileyo. Yintoni umbhali weentsomi zesayensi uKim Stanley Robinson yatsho ishumi leminyaka eyadlulayo malunga nenzululwazi yemozulu iyinyani ngalo mzuzu: “Into esele yenziwe nedlalayo ngoku lidabi elikhulu lembali yehlabathi phakathi kwenzululwazi nobukapitali. Inzululwazi igxininisa ngakumbi yonke imihla ukuba le yingozi yokwenyani nekhoyo. Ubungxowankulu buthi abuyiyo, kuba ukuba bekuyinyaniso oko bekuya kuthetha ukuba urhulumente ulawula ngakumbi uqoqosho, ubulungisa bentlalontle (njengenkqubo yozinziso lwemozulu) njalo njalo.”
Ukuba siyamamela, inzululwazi ingasinceda ngalo mzuzu. Ukulandela imodeli yezoqoqosho, kwelinye icala, kuya kwenza abantu babulawe ngokuqinisekileyo njengoko benzile kwinkulungwane eyadlulayo.
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