UMongameli uDonald TrumpUmgaqo-nkqubo omtsha we-Iran umele ngokucacileyo ukwala okuyingozi kozakuzo ukuze kuphendulwe ungquzulwano. Kodwa kungaphezulu koko: Lutshintsho olukhulu olubhekiselele kulungelelwaniso olusondeleyo lomgaqo-nkqubo wase-US kunye noworhulumente wase-Israel. Inkulumbuso uBenjamin Netanyahu.
Nokuba ngokucacileyo okanye akunjalo, isibhambathiso sikaTrump sokusebenzisana neCongress ukuphinda kuxoxwe ngesivumelwano senyukliya sase-Iran, kunye nesoyikiso sakhe esicacileyo sokurhoxa kwisivumelwano ukuba akukho kuxoxisana kwakhona okwenzekayo, kubonakala ngathi kuyanelisa iimfuno ezinzima ezenziwe nguNetanyahu kumgaqo-nkqubo waseWashington malunga neTehran.
Ngokukodwa, uNetanyahu uye waqhubeka efuna ukuba iTump ihoxise kwiSicwangciso esiHlangeneyo sokuSebenza esiHlangeneyo (JCPOA) okanye senze utshintsho olude kakhulu owaziyo ukuba alunakwenzeka. Kwintetho yakhe ye-17 kaSeptemba kwi-UN General Assembly, uNetanyahu wathi,
"Umgaqo-nkqubo we-Israel malunga nesivumelwano senyukliya ne-Iran ulula kakhulu: yitshintshe okanye uyicime."
Kwaye akazange afihle ukuba kuthetha ukuthini: Ukuba uTrump "akasirhoxisi" isivumelwano, kufuneka Susa i "igatya lokutshona kwelanga" kunye imfuneko ukuba i-Iran iphelise ii-centrifuges zayo eziphambili kunye nenkqubo yomjukujelwa womgama omde, phakathi kwezinye iinjongo ezingenakufikelelwa.
Ingxelo kaTrump ngoLwesihlanu odlulileyo ukwazile ukubandakanya zombini/okanye ukhetho awayelunikwe nguNetanyahu. Ulumkise ngelithi, ukuba iCongress kunye namahlakani aseMelika aseYurophu abavumelani ngesicwangciso sokuhlaziya isivumelwano, "ngoko isivumelwano siya kupheliswa." Wongeze ukuba isivumelwano "siphantsi kovavanyo oluqhubekayo," kwaye ukuthatha kwethu inxaxheba "kunokupheliswa ndim, njengomongameli nangaliphi na ixesha."
Elinye ilungiselelo abalawuli lifuna ukuba iCongress ifake kumthetho olungisiweyo iya kuvumela ukuba kubekwe izohlwayo ukuba i-Iran iwela “amanqaku okuqalisa” athile, angaquki nje imiba yenyukliya kodwa i-Israel ifuna ukuba i-Iran iyeke inkqubo yayo yomjukujelwa omde. Imijukujelwa ye-Ballistic ayizange ibandakanywe kwiingxoxo ze-JCPOA ngesizathu esicacileyo: i-Iran inelungelo elifanayo lokuphuhlisa imijukujelwa ye-ballistic njengalo naliphi na ilizwe elizimeleyo, kwaye yakhatywa ngokuqinileyo. ipro forma iimfuno zolawulo lukaBarack Obama lokubandakanya umba kwiingxoxo.
UTrump uhambe indlela ende ngokubhekiselele kukhetho lukaNetanyahu "lokurhoxisa" ngokwala kwiveki ephelileyo ukungqina ukuba iIran igcina isiphelo sayo seJPCOA. Elo nyathelo labonisa injongo yakhe yokurhoxisa isivumelwano esisembindini esisekelwe kuso sonke isivumelwano.
Nangona uMbindi Mpuma wahluke kakhulu namhlanje kunangexesha lolawulo lukaGeorge W. Bush, ezinye izinto ezifanayo zinokufumaneka ekuthelekiseni umgaqo-nkqubo kaTrump ngokubhekiselele kwi-JCPOA kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo kaBush obhekiselele e-Iran ngexesha lesigaba sokuqala senkqubo yokutyebisa i-uranium.
Amanani aphambili awayenempembelelo ephambili kwimigaqo-nkqubo kaTrump kunye nekaBush yaseIran abambe iimbono ezikufutshane nezo zeqela lasekunene likaSirayeli leLikud Party. Eyona ndlela iphambili yomgca weLikudist kwiTrump White House nguJared Kushner, umkhwenyana kamongameli, umcebisi wenkqubo yangaphandle, kunye ixesha elide umhlobo kunye nomxhasi kaNetanyahu. Abazali bakaKushner nabo abaxhasi bexesha elide beendawo zokuhlala zakwa-Israel kwi-West Bank.
Omnye umntu uTrump White House ajike kuye nguJohn Bolton, unobhala welizwe kunye nomenzi wemigaqo-nkqubo ophambili eIran kulawulo lukaBush. Nangona uBolton engazange atyunjwe njengonobhala welizwe likaTrump, njengoko wayenethemba, waphinda waphinda wadlala njengomdlali kumgaqo-nkqubo waseIran ngenxa yobudlelwane bakhe noKushner. Politico Iingxelo ukuba uBolton wadibana noKushner kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ngaphambi kokuba ingxelo yokugqibela yomgaqo-nkqubo ikhutshwe kwaye yakhuthaza ukuhoxiswa ngokupheleleyo kwisivumelwano ngokuthanda isicwangciso sakhe sokuqulatha i-Iran.
UBolton uthethe noTrump ngomnxeba ngoLwesine malunga nomhlathi kwisivumelwano esafunga ukuba siya "kupheliswa" ukuba kukho ukuxoxisana kwakhona, ngoku kaPolitico. Wayefowunela uTrump evela eLas Vegas, apho wayedibene khona nesikhulu sekhasino uSheldon Adelson, umntu wesithathu ophambili emva kokutshintsha kukaTrump kwimiba yakwaSirayeli. UAdelson ungumxhasi weLikud osele engumhlobo osondeleyo kaNetanyahu kwaye usebenzise iphephandaba lakhe lase-Israel. Israel Hayomukuba xhasa amaphulo kaNetanyahu. WayengokaTrump iphulo eliphambili ngo 2016, ukunikela $100 million. Adelson's umdla wokwenyani ube ekuxhaseni iimfuno zakwaSirayeli eWashington- ngakumbi malunga ne-Iran.
Kwimbonakalo yoluntu kwaSirayeli ngo-2013, xa uAdelson wabuzwa malunga nombono wakhe ngothethathethwano noTehran, cetyiswa Ukuwisa isixhobo senyukliya kwintlango yase-Iran emva koko bathi kubantu base-Irani, “Yabonani! Elilandelayo liphakathi kweTehran. Ke, sithetha ishishini. Ufuna ukucinywa? Qhubeka kwaye uthathe isikhundla esinzima kwaye uqhubeke nophuhliso lwakho lwenyukliya. ” …
Ukhetho lomgaqo-nkqubo weLikud Party kwi-Iran lwalulawula ulawulo lukaBush ubukhulu becala ngenxa yempembelelo kaDavid Wurmser, iLikudist owayengumcebisi kuMbindi Mpuma kuqala eBolton kwaye kamva kwiSekela likaMongameli uDick Cheney. UWurmser wayengumbhali-mbhali, kunye noRichard Perle kunye noDouglas Feith, we Ikhefu elicocekileyo, iphepha lika-1996 elacebisa uNetanyahu ukuba enze uqhankqalazo lomkhosi nxamnye neSyria neIran aze ashenxise ulawulo lukaSaddam Hussein eIraq. UWurmser waqinisekisa uCheney ukuba abaphathi kufuneka bafune isizathu sokuhlasela i-Iran.
Kodwa yayinguBolton owayesebenza namagosa akwa-Israel ukucwangcisa iphulo lokuqinisekisa ihlabathi ukuba i-Iran yayisebenza ngasese kwizixhobo zenyukliya. Injongo yakhe yayikukuthengisa amazwe aphambili aseYurophu kwisigqibo seBhunga loKhuseleko le-UN etyhola i-Iran ngokuphuhlisa inkqubo yenyukliya. U-Bolton uchaza kwiinkumbulo zakhe ukuba ukucinga kwesicwangciso sakhe yayikukuba iBhunga lezoKhuseleko liya kuhlutha i-Iran ilungelo layo lokuba nenkqubo yenyukliya okanye i-United States ingathatha inyathelo lomkhosi elicalanye.
Ngehlobo lika-2004, ingqokelela enkulu yamaxwebhu ekutyholwa ukuba avela kwinkqubo yophando lwezixhobo zenyukliya yaseIran yafunyanwa ngequbuliso yiarhente yobuntlola yangaphandle yaseJamani. Loo maxwebhu aba kuphela kobungqina bokuba kukho inkqubo enjalo. Kodwa lo mbhali kufunyenwe ngaphezulu kophawu lorhwaphilizo emaphepheni, kwaye owayesakuba yiofisi ye-ofisi yangaphandle yaseJamani yandixelela kwirekhodi ngo-Matshi 2013 ukuba umthombo ogqithise amaxwebhu wawulungu le-Mujihadeen e-Khalq (MEK), iqela elichasayo lase-Iranian elixhobileyo. I-MEK kutyholwa ukuba usebenze neMossad yakwaSirayeli ixesha elide.
Nolawulo lukaBush okanye ulawulo lukaTrump aluyijongi ingozi etyholwayo yokwanda kwenyukliya yi-Iran njengengxaki ephambili ngesehlo; ibingumba omele uxhatshazwe ukwenza buthathaka ulawulo lwamaSilamsi kwaye ekugqibeleni ufezekise utshintsho lolawulo. UHilary Mann Leverett, umnxibelelanisi we-NSC kwiPersian Gulf ukusuka ngo-2001-03, uxelele lo mbhali kudliwanondlebe luka-2013 ukuba uWurmser nabanye abacebisi bakaCheney baqinisekile ukuba uqhanqalazo lwabafundi luka-1999 lubonise ukuba abantu base-Irani babekulungele ukubhukuqa iRiphabhlikhi yamaSilamsi. Kwingxelo yakhe kwiveki ephelileyo, uTrump wagxeka u-Obama ngokususa izohlwayo zenyukliya e-Iran “ngaphambi nje kokuba kube kukuwa ngokupheleleyo kolawulo lwase-Iran.”
Emva kokuba uNetanyahu abe yinkulumbuso yakwa-Israel ekuqaleni kuka-2009, ulawulo lwakhe lusebenze ngokuzimisela iminyaka emine ukuze luqhube ulawulo luka-Obama ukuba lunike i-Iran isiphelo senkqubo yayo yokutyebisa. U-Obama usikhabile eso siphakamiso, kodwa uBolton unalo waphinda ikhwelo lakhe lokuba iUnited States ibhombuse iIran unyaka nonyaka.
Ngoku ulawulo lukaTrump ludlala isahluko esitsha kumdlalo weLikudists kunye nabaxhasi babo eWashington. Injongo yabo ayiyonto ingaphantsi kokusebenzisa amandla ase-US ukwenza buthathaka i-Iran ngeendlela zomkhosi ukuba kunokwenzeka kunye nezohlwayo zezoqoqosho ukuba kuyimfuneko. Eyona nto imangalisayo kukuba uTrump usebenzisana ngolangazelelo ngakumbi kunoBush.
Gareth Porter yintatheli ezimeleyo kwaye iphumelele iBhaso le-Gellhorn lika-2012 lobuntatheli. Ungumbhali weencwadi ezininzi, kuquka Inkathazo eyenziweyo: Ingxelo engabonakaliyo ye-Iran Nuclear Scare. Mlandele kuTwitter @GarethPorter.
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