Ukusukela oko ulawulo lukaTrump lwaqala kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo ukugrogrisa uqhankqalazo lokuqala oluchasene neNorth Korea ngenxa yovavanyo oluqhubekayo lwemijukujelwa, umbuzo wokuba ingaba ikulungele na ukulwa imfazwe uye wavela kwezinye iintlekele kumgaqo-nkqubo wamazwe angaphandle wase-US.
Amajelo eendaba athintele naziphi na iinzame zokuphendula loo mbuzo, ngesizathu esicacileyo: Ulawulo lunomdla ogqithisayo ekuqinisekiseni urhulumente waseNorth Korea kaKim Jong-un ukuba uTrump ngenene uya kuyalela ugwayimbo lokuqala ukuba urhulumente uyaqhubeka nokuvavanya inyukliya. izixhobo kunye ne-intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Ke ngoko, uninzi lwamajelo eendaba luye lwabaleka ukumba nzulu kakhulu umahluko phakathi komgaqo-nkqubo wangempela woqhankqalazo lokuqala kunye neqhinga lezopolitiko elijolise ukubeka uxinzelelo kwiPyongyang.
Ukusetyenziswa kwesoyikiso somkhosi "sokunyanzeliswa kwediplomatic" sisixhobo esisisiseko somgaqo-nkqubo wase-US ekujonganeni neentshaba ezibuthathaka kangangokuba iphantse yathathwa nje kancinci eWashington. Kwanoonozakuzaku abaye babandakanyeka ngokunzulu ekuthethathethwaneni noMntla Korea bayakuxhasa ukusebenzisa eso sisongelo njengenxalenye yesicwangciso esibanzi sozakuzo. URobert Gallucci, igosa leSebe likaRhulumente elixoxisane "ngeSikhokelo esiVunyiweyo" kunye namagosa aseNyakatho Korea kwi-1994, echazwe kwi-imeyile kwi-Truthout, "Sifuna ukuba uMntla uqonde ukuba izenzo zabo zingakhokelela i-US kwisiteleka sokuthintela - isilumko okanye hayi.โ
Unxibelelwano phakathi kwesoyikiso solawulo lukaTrump "lokhetho lomkhosi" kunye noxinzelelo lozakuzo lwase-US kwiNorth Korea yayicacile kwingcebiso yayo yokuqala yokuba inokwenza ugwayimbo lokuqala. Elo cebiso lafika nge-13 ka-Epreli, kwangoko ekugqityweni kokuphononongwa komgaqo-nkqubo wolawulo kwiNorth Korea, xa iNBC News. umbiko ukuba "amagosa aphezulu kwezobuntlola" athi abalawuli "balungele ukusungula ugwayimbo lwangaphambili" ukuba amagosa "aqinisekile ukuba iNorth Korea iza kulandela uvavanyo lwezixhobo zenyukliya." Ibali kwiPosi yaseWashington yapapashwa ngosuku olulandelayo inike inguqulelo eyahluke kancinane: Ulawulo "lwalulungele ukuphendula kolunye uvavanyo lwenyukliya yaseNyakatho Korea" kwaye "lunoluhlu lwezinto onokukhetha kuzo" kodwa aluna "kufowunela impendulo yalo kwangaphambili."
Noko ke, igosa lasemkhosini elingachazwanga ngagama xelele i-Associated Press Ngaloo mini umgaqo-nkqubo owawuvunyiwe liBhunga leSizwe lezoKhuseleko alizange libone ukusetyenziswa kwamandla ekuphenduleni uvavanyo lwenyukliya okanye lwe-missile, ngaloo ndlela ityhila ukuba ukuvuza okubandakanya isoyikiso sokuhlaselwa kwangaphambili okanye ukuphindiselela kuvavanyo lwaseNyakatho Korea. Inxalenye yomzamo onzima kwi "coercive diplomacy."
Ukubethelela ngakumbi oko kutolikwa zizityhilelo zokuba amagosa aphezulu ePentagon ayathandabuza ukuba ugwayimbo lokuqala oluchasene nemijukujelwa yaseNorth Korea kunye neendawo zenyukliya zingaphumelela ngokupheleleyo. Ekuphenduleni ileta evela kuCongressman Ted Lieu (D-California), u-Admiral wangemva uMichael J. Dumont, usekela-mlawuli we-Joint Staff, osebenza phantsi kwegunya le-Joint Chiefs of Staff, wenze isityhilelo esimangalisayo: Ekuphela kwendlela "yokufumana kunye nokutshabalalisa - ngokuqinisekileyo - onke amacandelo eenkqubo zenyukliya zaseNyakatho Korea" "ngokuhlasela komhlaba."
Igosa eliphezulu lePentagon elingaziwayo liye laya phambili, uxelela uHarry J. Kazianis, umalathisi wezifundo zokhuselo kwiZiko Lomdla Welizwe, โAsazi ukuba ziphi na zonke izixhobo zenyukliya nemijukujelwa. Ixesha.โ Amanye amagosa ePentagon aqinisekisa inqaku elifanayo kuKazianis. Ezo kwamkelwa, ezithobisa iinzame zokuqinisekisa iNorth Korea ukuba ugwayimbo lokuqala lwase-US alunakwenzeka kuphela kodwa lunokwenzeka ukuba luyaqhubeka kwikhosi yalo yangoku, yenze kucace ukuba iinkokeli eziphezulu zasemkhosini nezomkhosi ePentagon aziluxhasi ugwayimbo lokuqala. umgaqo-nkqubo.
Esona sizathu siphambili sokungafuni kwePentagon evulekileyo yokwamkela ukhetho olunjalo, nangona kunjalo, kukuba iinkokeli zomkhosi zazi kakuhle ukuba iNorth Korea ingaphendula kuqhankqalazo lokuqala lwase-US kwiithagethi zayo ze-missile kunye nenyukliya ngokuhlaselwa kwe-artillery kunye nokuhlaselwa kwe-rocket kwi-South Korea. Ikomkhulu laseKorea, iSeoul. Ngokutsho kwengxelo yeStratfor, iibhetri zeenqwelo-moya zaseMntla Korea kunye neziqhushumbisi zerokethi ezizimilimitha ezingama-300, ezigrunjwe kwicala leentaba zegranite kumantla nje alo mmandla uphelelwe ngumkhosi, zinokuzisa โumlinganiselo ofanayo womthetho owiswe ziinqwelo-moya ezili-11 zeB-52.โ Kwaye nangona imikhosi yomoya yase-US kunye ne-South Korea iya kuqalisa ngokukhawuleza ukuhlasela ezo bhetri kunye neziqhubi, kuya kuba semva kwexesha kakhulu ukunqanda ukwenzakala okuphezulu kakhulu kwabantu.
Ngaphandle kwezi zibonakaliso zicacileyo zokuchaswa komkhosi ekugcineni isoyikiso sokuqala sase-US, amanye amagosa olawulo lukaTrump afune ukusigcina siphila eso soyikiso. UVan Jackson, owayengumlawuli welizwe laseKorea kwiOfisi kaNobhala wezoKhuselo ukusuka kwi-2009 ukuya kwi-2014 kwaye ngoku ufundisa kwiYunivesithi yaseVictoria eWellington, eNew Zealand uxelele iNyaniso ukuba amanani abalulekileyo kulawulo lukaTrump akholelwa ukuba iUnited States kufuneka yenze nantoni na. Kuyimfuneko ukumisa uphuhliso lwaseNorth Korea lomjukujelwa okwaziyo ukufikelela eUnited States ngesixhobo senyukliya. "Imithombo yam indixelela ukuba wonke umntu kulawulo ngaphandle kukaTillerson kunye noMattis bakholelwa ukuba, ukuba iNorth Korea inamandla, baya kuyisebenzisa," utshilo uJackson kudliwanondlebe.
Imvumelwano phakathi kweengcali zaseNorth Korea kulawulo luka-Obama yayiyeyokuba iNorth Korea yayilandela izixhobo zenyukliya njengesithintelo sokuqinisekisa ukusinda korhulumente, ngokukaJackson. Kodwa ngoku, uthi, Umcebisi wezoKhuseleko kuZwelonke u-HR McMaster kunye noMat Pottinger, umlawuli webhunga lesizwe lezokhuseleko e-Asia, bamkele umbono owahluke kakhulu. "Bathi iNorth Korea ayithinteki, ngoko ke ukuphuhliswa kwayo kwe-ICBM akufuneki kuvunyelwe," utshilo uJackson.
UJackson uyavuma ukuba uNobhala wezoKhuseleko uJames Mattis uyakuchasa ukhetho lwe-US lokuqala logwayimbo ngokuchasene neNorth Korea, kodwa woyika ukuba uMcMaster kunye noPottinger bamnqobile uTrump kwingxoxo yabo. Oko kuya kuchaza ukuba kutheni ulawulo lweTrump luye lwamkela isikhundla esiqinileyo sokuba aluyi kuxoxisana neNorth Korea ngaphandle kwesiseko se-denuclearization epheleleyo. Uninzi lwabantu abaphezulu bezokhuseleko lwesizwe bajonga imfuno enjalo njengento engenakwenzeka, ngakumbi kuba iPentagon ayazi nokuba ziphi na izixhobo.
Naxa wayeqhubela phambili nombono wokuba iNorth Korea ayinakuthintelwa nje ukuba ifikelele eUnited States, nangona kunjalo, uMcMaster wayephikisa ngelithi urhulumente ngoku unokuthintelwa ekuphenduleni kuhlaselo oluchanekileyo lwase-US kwiindawo zayo zomjukujelwa. Owayesakuba ligosa leSebe likaRhulumente uMark Fitzpatrick, ngoku oyintloko yeofisi yaseWashington yeZiko leHlabathi leSifundo seSicwangciso esiseLondon ya phawula ngoNovemba 8, ukuba umgca wemfazwe othathwe nguMcMaster kunye ne-White House wawusekelwe "kwingcinga yokuba iNorth Korea ayiyi kuphendula ngamandla" kuhlaselo lwase-US kuvavanyo lwemijukujelwa kunye nokuqaliswa kwezibonelelo, "kuba iya kwazi ukuba iya kuphulukana nayo yonke into. kwimfazwe eyayiza kulandela.โ UFitzpatrick uqaphele, nangona kunjalo, ukuba umntu ophuma kwi-ambassy yaseNorth Korea eLondon, uThae Yong-ho, wayelumkisile ukuba impendulo yaseNyakatho Korea kulo naluphi na uhlaselo, "nokuba luncinci kangakanani," luya kuba "lunya."
Ulawulo lukaTrump lunokufuna ukonyusa uxinzelelo kwiNorth Korea ngokuqhubekayo ngokwenza intshukumo enye okanye ngaphezulu ilungiselela - kodwa imfutshane - imfazwe. Umzekelo, inokuzisa imikhosi yase-US engaphezulu eMzantsi Korea okanye eJapan. Nangona kunjalo, urhulumente waseNyakatho Korea unokutolika loo ntshukumo njengophawu lokuba i-US izimisele ukuhlasela kwaye ihlasele iNyakatho, kuba oko kuya kubonakala ngathi yeyona njongo yokuhambisa ukuqinisa kwindawo yemidlalo yeqonga. Ngapha koko, ngokukaJackson, abantu baseNyakatho Korea baxelele oonozakuzaku base-US ngexesha lentlekele ka-1994 ukuba bafunde ngononophelo intshukumo yamajoni amakhulu e-US ukulungiselela iMfazwe yokuqala yeGulf ngo-1990-91, kwaye balumkisa ukuba baya kusabela kwinyathelo. njengaleyo kwingingqi yabo ngokuqalisa olwabo uhlaselo.
Akukenzeki ukuba wazi ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba ngaba ulawulo lukaTrump lujonge ukubetha kuqala ngokuchasene noMntla Korea. Izoyikiso ezisemthethweni zogwayimbo olunjalo zinokuthotywa njengoko ngokucacileyo zinxulumene nenkqubo eneenkcukacha - ukuba ngandlel' ithile ikrwada - iphulo lokulwa ngokwasengqondweni. Kodwa ukujijeka okungaphezulu kunye nokujika komgaqo-nkqubo wase-US kunokulindelwa kwiinyanga ezizayo, kwaye umnqweno otyhafileyo wokunyanzela iPyongyang usenokuba ubangele ukucinga okunqwenelekayo kwicala likaMcMaster kwaye, ngokuyingozi ngakumbi, uTrump ngokwakhe, malunga nokuthintela impendulo yalo rhulumente. ugwayimbo lokuqala lwase-US. Loo nto ke isenokubangela isoyikiso esinzulu senye imfazwe engeyomfuneko neyoyikekayo.
Gareth Porter yintatheli ephandayo ezimeleyo kunye nombhali-mbali obhalayo ngomgaqo-nkqubo wokhuseleko wesizwe wase-US. Incwadi yakhe yamva nje, Inkathazo eyenziweyo: Ingxelo engabonakaliyo ye-Iran Nuclear Scare, yapapashwa ngoFebruwari ka-2014. Mlandele kuTwitter: @GarethPorter.
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