USirayeli ubetha amagubu emfazwe kwakhona, ngesi sihlandlo phezu kweSiriya. Nge-10 kaFebruwari i-Israel Defence Forces (IDF) yenze eyona nto inamandla yokusetyenziswa kwamandla akwa-Israel eSiriya ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Emva kokuqhushumba isiseko se-drone ukuziphindezela kwisityholo sokuhlaselwa yi-drone yase-Iran, u-Israel. iziphindezele ngokudutyulwa kwenye yenqwelomoya yayo yokulwas ngokubetha eyona bunker yomyalelo kunye nolawulo lwaseSyria kunye nezixhobo zonxibelelwano zaseIran ezihlanu.
U-Israyeli ebebeka isiseko sezopolitiko sokunyuka komkhosi eSyria ukusukela phakathi ku-2017. Kulapho amagosa akwaSirayeli aqala ukuphinda imixholo emibini enxibelelene yezopolitiko: ukuba i-Iran kufuneka ithintelwe ekusekeni iziseko ezisisigxina kunye nokumilisela imikhosi yayo yommeli kwi-Syria Golan Heights, nokuba i-Iran yakha ngokufihlakeleyo iifektri eSiriya naseLebhanon ukunika iHezbollah imijukujelwa ujoliso oluchanekileyo.
Kodwa ubungqina bubonisa ukuba izizathu ezibhengezwe esidlangalaleni ngamagosa akwa-Israeli ayisiyiyo eyona njongo yokunyuka kohlaselo lomoya lwase-Israel kunye nobukho bomhlaba eSyria.
Unozakuzaku wakwaSirayeli uRon Dermer ufungile ukuba uSirayeli akayi kuvumela i-Iran okanye i-Hezbollah ukuba iseke iziseko ezisisigxina naphi na eSiriya, kodwa akukho bungqina bubambekayo baso nasiphi na isiseko esisisigxina esiye savela - kuphela ifoto yasemoyeni kwindawo eyayikho Yamkelwa ukuba yindawo yomkhosi waseSyria kunye neeshedi ezininzi zokugcina izithuthi. Nangona kunjalo, umkhosi waseSiriya ngokuqinisekileyo ucwangcisa iziseko ezinjalo eGolan. NgoJanuwari, imikhosi yomkhosi waseSyria ixhaswa yimikhosi yeHezbollah yathimba isikhululo somkhosi eBeit Jinn kufutshane nemida yomibini yaseLebhanon naseSyria kuMntla Golan.
Inxalenye yeGolan ngoku ilawulwa yi-Israel, eyayithatha eSiriya ngo-1967. ilingana ngamanani nabemi baseSyria bamandulo. U-Israel uvakalise uloyiko lokuba iintshukumo zamva nje zaseSyria zinokusongela ngokuhlala kukaSirayeli eGolan. Umphathi we-IDF uGadi Eizenkot ibhengezwe ngoJanuwari ukuba uSirayeli โakanakuyibetha ngoyaba into yokuba iHezbollah, imikhosi yamaShiite kunye neIran zizibona zikwicala eliphumeleleyo eSyria, kunye noBashar Assad, kwaye babelane ngomnqweno wakhe wokubuyela kwiGolan Heights.โ
Amagosa akwa-Israel avakalise ukuzimisela kokuseka ulawulo lwakwaSirayeli ngokwenyani kwinto abayibize ngokuba yi- "indawo ye-buffer" okanye "indawo ekhuselekileyo" egubungela inxalenye enkulu yeGolan yaseSiriya. U-Israel wayesele eqalisile ukubeka isiseko kwiminyaka emibini edlulileyo ngokuxhobisa amaqela aphikisayo achasene no-Assad kuphela ukubona uninzi lwenkqubela phambili yawo ijikiswa yinkqubela phambili yomkhosi waseSyria yamva nje. Injongo yendawo yesithinteli ngokuqinisekileyo iya kufuna inani elikhulayo lemisebenzi yomkhosi wase-Israel ukutyhala ngasemva ngokuchasene namajoni aseSyria namaShiite kuloo ndawo.
Amabhongo akwaSirayeli awaphelelanga kwiGolan yaseSyria. I-IDF izimisele ukungena nzulu eSyria ukuze ithintele i-Iranian kunye ne-Hezbollah inkululeko yokwenza apho. Injongo yomkhosi wexesha elide, njengoko i-IDF eyiNtloko u-Eizenkot yabhengeza kwintetho yakhe kaJanuwari, "kukutyhalela ama-Irani ukuba abuyele e-Iran." Ngokucacileyo, amagosa akwaSirayeli anjalo uzibophelele ekuthinteleni i-Iran ekusekeni Ipaseji yomhlaba edibanisa iTehran neLebhanon kunye neMeditera ngeIraq neSyria.
Loo njongo sele ikhokelele ubuncinane I-100 ye-Israel ibetha emoyeni ngokuchasene namakhulu ekujoliswe kuyo eSiriya ukususela ngoJanuwari 2013, kuquka ii-convoys ezithwele izixhobo eziya eLebhanon, iindawo zokugcina izixhobo kunye neethagethi zeHezbollah. Netanyahu uxelele iNATO aOonozakuzaku ngoJanuwari ukuba i-Israel iqhubeke nokusebenzisa imikhosi ukuthintela "ukudluliselwa kwezixhobo eziguqula umdlalo kwiHezbollah ukusuka kumhlaba waseSyria."
U-Israel ugxininisa ukuba i-IDF kufuneka imise ukuhamba kwezixhobo ezichanekileyo kwizandla ze-Hezbollah. Intloko yezobuntlola zomkhosi wakwaSirayeli, uMaj. Gen. Herzl Halevi, ihlawulwe Kulo nyaka uphelileyo ukuba i-Iran yakha iindibano zocweyo eziyimfihlo eLebhanon ukwakha imijukujelwa ephucukileyo yeHezbollah. Sirayeli ngoku mabango, nangona kunjalo ukuba i-Iran iye yatshintsha isicwangciso sayo ekwakhiweni kweeworkshops ezinjalo eLebhanon ukuze izakhele eSiriya, kwaye i-IDF yabetha ezimbini iindibano zocweyo eSiriya kwi-2018.
Kodwa akukho bungqina bokuxhasa ibango lakwa-Israeli lezixhobo zaseIran eLebhanon okanye eSyria. I ingxelo yokuqala kwemizi-mveliso enjalo eLebhanon - kutyholwa ukuba yangcwatywa iinyawo ze-160 phantsi komhlaba - kwakucingelwa ukuba isekelwe ekuvunyweni ngusekela ongaziwayo kumphathi we-Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps uMaj Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari. Kodwa yapapashwa kwiphephandaba laseKuwait, iAl-Jarida, elaziwa ngokuba lisoloko liphethe amabali zivuzwe ngurhulumente wakwaSirayeli. Igosa lezoKhuselo lakwaSirayeli ibango kwi-International Crisis Group NgoNovemba ophelileyo ukuba i-Iran ibisalandela iifektri ezinjalo eSyria kodwa ayizange inike zinkcukacha zokungqina esi sityholo.
Ngapha koko, kwakungekho mfuneko yokuba i-Iran iseke amaziko amatsha angaphantsi komhlaba ukuze enze izixhobo eziphucukileyo eLebhanon okanye eSyria, kuba urhulumente waseSyria ebesenzela iHezbollah izixhobo ezinjalo iminyaka emininzi. Njengoko uBrigadier. UGen. Yossi Baidatz, owayesakuba yintloko yecandelo lophando lezobuntlola kwaSirayeli, uxelele iKomiti yeMicimbi yezaNgaphandle kunye noKhuseleko yeKnesset embindini ka-2010, iHezbollah yayisele ifumene amakhulu aliqela imijukujelwa ye-M600 eyenziwe ngamaSiriya ngelo xesha. Ezi zi-clones ze-Iranian Fateh-110 imijukujelwa enoluhlu lwe-250 km, i-warhead ye-500-kg kunye nenkqubo yesikhokelo echanekileyo.
Ngo-2014 umphathi woMkhosi wamaSilamsi woKhuseleko loKhuseleko lwe-Aerospace Force, uBrig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, wathi Ubuchule bokujula beHezbollah babusele buphucukile kangangokuba โbenokuhlasela nayiphi na indawo ekujoliswe kuyo kuyo nayiphi na indawo ethathiweyo ngokuchanekileyo nangomda ophantsi kakhulu wempazamo.โ
Ngaloo ndlela u-Israyeli uceba imfazwe yexesha elide eSiriya iminyaka emininzi kakhulu emva kokuthintela ezo zixhobo "zokutshintsha umdlalo" ukuba ziwele ezandleni zeHezbollah. Kungathi uSirayeli wayelungiselela umsebenzi omkhulu, obiza imali eninzi - noyingozi - ukuvala ucango lweshedi kwiminyaka emva kokuba iinkomo zaziwa ukuba ziphumile eshedini.
Ngaphaya koko, amagosa akwa-Israel ayala ukuvuma ukuba injongo ye-Iran ekwakheni nasekuphuculeni ibutho le-missile le-Hezbollah ibisoloko isisithintelo sohlaselo lomkhosi wamaSirayeli okanye wase-US e-Iran okanye uhlaselo lwe-Israel kwi-Hezbollah. Amagosa ase-Irani aqala ukunika amawaka eerokethi kwi-Hezbollah ukuze yomeleze amandla ayo okuthintela xa amandla ayo okuthintela imijukujelwa yayisesebusaneni. Ngelo xesha, inkqubo echasene nemijukujelwa yakwaSirayeli yayinokuthi ibambe nayiphi na imijukujelwa enokuthi iyitshise kwaSirayeli, njengo-Ephraim Kam, ingcali yase-Iran kwiziko likaSirayeli laseJaffe leSifundo seQhinga, ya phawula ngoDisemba 2004.
Amagosa akwa-Israel kudala eqhayisa ngelithi ayithintele i-Hezbollah kuhlaselo lomjukujelwa kwaSirayeli. Kodwa into engazange ixutyushwe sisidingo sokuthintelwa komkhosi wamaSirayeli. I-IDF waqala ukucwangcisa uhlaselo lwayo kwiHezbollah ngokweenkcukacha ngaphezulu konyaka phambi kwephulo lika-2006. Enye yeenjongo zikaSirayeli ekuqaliseni uhlaselo, ngokutsho komhlalutyi weqhinga u-Edward Luttwak, onobudlelwane obunzulu noSirayeli, yayikukutshabalalisa okwaneleyo komkhosi womjukujelwa we-Hezbollah ekuhlaseleni kombane ukucenga ulawulo lukaGeorge W. Bush ukuba luyeke ukuchasa uhlaselo lwakwa-Israel kwiziza zenyukliya zase-Iran.
Nangona amagosa akwa-Israel engenakuze ayivume ngokusemthethweni, ngokudodobalisa uSirayeli kunye nokwakha izixhobo eziya zinamandla zemijukujelwa, iHezbollah iseke uxolo oluzinzileyo noSirayeli ngaphezulu kweminyaka elishumi. Njengoko uSeth Cropsey we-pro-Israel Hudson Institute uye wathandabuza yavuma"I-Hezbollah kuphela kwamandla uSirayeli athe wajongana nawo akhuphe umqobo wokusebenza kunye neqhinga kwi-IDF."
Imfazwe uSirayeli ayicwangcisayo eSyria ubuncinci ngokuyimpendulo yokungakwazi kwayo ukusebenzisa amandla ngokuchasene neHezbollah eLebhanon. Kwaye ayizukuguqula ulungelelwaniso lwamandla asisiseko nokuba kuseSyria okanye phakathi kukaSirayeli neHezbollah.
Gareth Porter yintatheli ephandayo ezimeleyo kunye nombhali-mbali obhalayo ngomgaqo-nkqubo wokhuseleko wesizwe wase-US. Incwadi yakhe yamva nje, Inkathazo eyenziweyo: Ingxelo engabonakaliyo ye-Iran Nuclear Scare, yapapashwa ngoFebruwari ka-2014. Mlandele kuTwitter: @GarethPorter.
I-ZNetwork ixhaswa ngemali kuphela ngesisa sabafundi bayo.
Nikela