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dhonetaKunyanya, masimba makuru eIsrael ekuMiddle East anga achishuvira kumira seasina basa muhondo yakaipisisa yemakore mana muSyria, uko masimba makuru ematunhu nepasirese ane chekuita nezvematongerwo enyika nehondo uye kugadzirisa zvibodzwa neropa reSyria.
Mukuongorora kwake kwevhiki kwegeopolitical, yakanzi "The Islamic State Reshapes the Middle East," musi wa25 Mbudzi. StratforGeorge Friedman akasimudza tsiye paakaongorora mabatiro akaitwa neboka remagandanga pamasimba ese edunhu, asi aiita seasingazive kuvepo kwesimba guru redunhu reIsrael.
Kwakanga kuri kusiiwa kunodzidzisa kunotaura zvakawanda pamusoro pekusava neungwaru basa riri kuitwa neIsrael kuchengetedza zvakatsanangurwa nemutsananguri weIsrael Amos Harel se "kusagadzikana kwakadzikama" muSyria nenharaunda, kubva mumaonero eIsrael hongu.
Friedman pachokwadi airatidza kusiiwa kwepamutemo kwakafanana nehutungamiri hweUS. Mutungamiriri wenyika Barak Obama pavakakumbira "mubatanidzwa wepasi rose" kurwisa Islamic State (IS), Israel - simba remauto rakasimba mudunhu iri uye tsime - rakamira zvine hungwaru kuti rirwise - harina kukumbirwa kupinda. Utongi hwaObama hwakazotsanangura gare gare kuti mupiro weIsrael waizoratidza zvakaipa kune vanodyidzana nemaArabu mumubatanidzwa.
"Kujekesa mipiro yeIsrael kunogona kunetsa maererano nekuomesera kuyedza kunyoresa mubatanidzwa wechiMuslim" mumubatanidzwa, akadaro Michael Eisenstadt, mukuru kuruoko rweAIPAC, Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Covertly zvisinei Israel mutambi mukuru mukurebesa hondo iri kupera paSyria uye mubatsiri mukuru wekudzoreredza mauto ega muvakidzani wechiArabu wepapo uyo kusvika pari zvino atadza kutevedzera zvakatemerwa neUS - inotsigirwa neIsrael region force majeure yekuita runyararo. nechimiro chechiHebheru.
Zvakati wandei zvichangobva kuitika zvakaunza basa reIsrael pachena.
Chekutanga kubhomba kwazvino kwezvinangwa zveSyria pedyo nenhandare yendege yepasirese yeDhamasiko musi waZvita 7 kwaive kurova kwendege kusingaite kwerudzi rwayo kwechinomwe kubva muna 2011 uye yechishanu mumwedzi gumi nemisere yapfuura padziviriro yeSyria. Nzvimbo dzeSyria Scientific research centers, missile depos, air defense sites, radar neelectronic monitoring stations uye maRepublican Guards akatariswa neIsrael.
Kufambisa basa reIsrael uye nekuritsigira, masangano emagandanga anoshanda munyika akaedza kakawanda kurova zvinangwa zvakafanana. Vakabudirira kuuraya vatyairi vemauto akati wandei uye nyanzvi idzo masevhisi ehungwaru eIsrael angadai akabhadhara zvakanyanya kuvhima.
Foreign Policy musi waChikumi wapfuura 14 akataura chirevo chakaitwa neMunyori Mukuru weUN, Ban Ki - moon achiti "hondo - yakaomesa vapanduki veSyria ... se "chibvumirano chemunyoro."
Mutungamiriri weIsrael Benyamin Netanyahu muna Kukadzi gore rino akashanyira "chipatara chemauto" ichi ndokukwazisana nevamwe vevapanduki vanopfuura 1000 vakarapwa muzvipatara zveIsrael, sekureva kwaLt. Col. Peter Lerner, mutauriri weIsrael Occupation Forces (IOF) )
Foreign Policy Akatorawo Ehud Yaari, mumwe weIsrael kuWashington Institute for Near East Policy, achiti Israel yaipa vapanduki - inodzorwa misha yeSyria nemishonga, maheater, nezvimwe zvekubatsira vanhu. Rubatsiro, akadaro, rwakabatsira vanhuwo zvavo uye "vapanduki." Yaari haana kufuratira mishumo yeIsrael masevhisi ehungwaru kune avo "vapanduki".
Izirayeri inofambisa hondo paUNDOF
Chechipiri, mushumo wekupedzisira wekota weUN Disengagement Force (UNDOF) kuUN Security Council (UNSC) musi waZvita 1 wakasimbisa izvo zvisere zvakapfuura zvakataurwa nezve "kudyidzana ... IOF neโmitezo ine zvombo yevashori (yeSyria),โ mumashoko omushumo waKi-moon kuKanzuru pana December 4.
Chechitatu, Ki-moon mumushumo wake akasimbisa kuti UNDOF "yakamanikidzwa kutamisa mauto ayo" kudivi reIsrael rekumisa pfuti, ichisiya divi reSyria nzvimbo yakachengeteka yeAl-Qaeda yakabatana al-Nusra Front, iyo UNSC yakanga yasarudza "boka remagandanga."
Mukuru weUNDOF, Lieutenant General Iqbal Singha akaudza UNSC musi wa9 Gumiguru kuti mauto ake "akapfurwa, akapambwa, akapambwa, akabvutirwa zvombo uye mahofisi akaparadzwa." Australia ndiyo yaive yazvino pakati pemauto ari kupa nyika kuburitsa mauto ayo kubva kuUNDOF.
UNDOF neUnited Nations Truce Supervision Organisation (UNTSO) vanoshanda munzvimbo yebuffer inosvika 80 km kureba uye pakati pe0.5 kusvika 10 km yakafara, ichiita nzvimbo ye235 kmยฒ. Nzvimbo inoganhurana neRebhanoni Blue Line kuchamhembe uye inoita muganho usingasviki 1 km neJoridhani kumaodzanyemba. Inofamba nePurple Line iyo inoparadzanisa Israel - inogarwa Golan Heights kubva kuSyria. Rutivi rweIsrael rwekumadokero rwemutsara uyu rinozivikanwa se "Alpha", uye kumabvazuva kweSyria se "Bravo."
Vachitaura pamuzinda wemauto weAmerica weFort Dix nemusi weMuvhuro, Mutungamiri Obama vakayambira avo "vanotyisidzira America" โโkuti "havazove nekuchengetedzeka," asi ndizvo chaizvo zvavari kupihwa neIsrael.
"Kudyidzana" kweIsrael kwakabatsira chaizvo UNDOF "kutama" kubva kuBravo kuenda kuAlpha uye kuendesa Bravo senzvimbo yakachengeteka kune al-Nusra Front - inotungamirwa mubatanidzwa wemapoka emagandanga.
Al-Nusra Front iri pamutemo al-Qaeda yakabatana muSyria. Munyori weUnited States of State John Kerry akaudza Komiti yeSeneti pamusoro pehukama hwekunze musi waZvita 9 kuti hutungamiriri hwake hunotora IS sebazi re al-Qaeda rinoshanda pasi pezita rakasiyana. Mapoka ese ari maviri emagandanga aive rimwe pasi pezita reIslamic State muIraq neSyria (ISIS) uye achangobva kuparadzana. Ani naani anogamuchira mumwe chete ari kupfimba mumwe.
โUto reUnited Nations rine simba zviuru zana nemazana maviri rave kunyanya kuungana mukati meCamp Ziouani, nzvimbo yakadzikama mukati meIsrael - inodzorwa nedivi reGolan Heights. Kutenderera kwaro pamuganho we de facto kwapera, "akadaro Yakabatanidzwa Nhau (AP) yakashumwa musi waSeptember 18 apfuura.
Mauto emuchadenga nemauto eIsrael akapindira kakawanda kuchengetedza "nzvimbo yakachengeteka" yeal-Nusra Front kubva kusimba remoto kubva kuSyria, iyo ichiri kuzvipira kuchibvumirano chayo chekumisa pfuti cha1974 neIsrael. MunaGunyana apfuura semuenzaniso, Israeri yakapfura ndege yehondo yeSyria yaibhomba nzvimbo dzeFront, mavhiki matatu chete mushure mekupfura drone yeSyria pamusoro penzvimbo iyi.
Israel haisi kutyora hutongi hweSyria chete, asi ichityorawo UN - yakatsigirwa chibvumirano chekumisa pfuti uye zvisungo zveUNSC zvekurwisa hugandanga. Zvinotonyanya kukosha, Israeri iri kurerutsa mutemo weUNDOF paIsrael - inogarwa neSyria Golan Heights.
Mamiriro ezvinhu aya anogona kungodudzirwa sehondo yakafanorongwa neIsrael nemumiriri pakuvapo kweUN paGolan Heights.
"Israel ndiyo inonyanya kufarira kuti (UN) vanochengetedza runyararo vabviswe muGolan inogarwa kuti vasatariswe pasi rose," mumiriri weSyria kuUN, Bashar al-Jaafari, akaudza vatori venhau musi waGunyana 17.
Iyo UNSC inoita seisina rubatsiro kana kusafarira kudzivirira iyo UNDOF mandate paGolan pakutyorwa kweIsrael, izvo zvinokonzeresa kuparara kwehurongwa hwekumisa 1974.
Bazi rezvekunze reSyria raive rekodhi rekushoropodza kutyora uku se "chiziviso chehondo," ichiti Syria inochengetera kodzero yayo yekutsiva "nenguva chaiyo uye nenzvimbo chaiyo." Zviripachena kubuda kwedunhu kuri panjodzi pano pasina kuvepo kweUN semushonga.
Kuvandudza pamwe chete chimiro cheIsrael kubva kune "mukuru asiri - NATO ally" kuenda ku "mukuru wekudyidzana naye" weUnited States neUS Congress musi wa3 Zvita zvinogona kutsanangura kusaita kweUNSC.
Kunzwisisa kusingazivikanwe pakati pehurumende yeSyria neUS - yakatungamira mubatanidzwa kurwisa ivo pachavo - yakazivisa "Islamic State" (IS) kuti irege kunangana nemauto ekupedzisira zvinoita sekunge yakasiya basa iri kuIsrael iyo isingakwanise kupinda mumubatanidzwa pachena kuti iite kuzvibata. sezvikonzero zvechinangwa.
The AP musi waGunyana 18 haana kuzeza kuzivisa kuti "kudonha kweiyo UN yekuchengetedza runyararo mishoni paGolan Heights kunoratidza nguva itsva paIsrael - kumberi kweSyria." Aron Heller, munyori we AP Chirevo, chakatora aimbova mukuru wemauto eIsrael aibatanidza neUNDOF, Stephane Cohen, achiti: "Zvavanotumwa hazvichashandi." Heller akagumisa kuti uyu mugariro โunoisa mungoziโ โstatus quo,โ izvo zvamazvirokwazvo zvazova chimiro chekare.
Israel Strategic gains
Iyo fait accompli iri kubuda inoita seyakanaka kuIsrael, ichigadzira mabhenefiti akanaka kurudzi rwechiHebheru uye nekuibata nechikonzero chekusabvisa IOF kubva kuSyria Golan Heights nePalestine nzvimbo.
Mune bepa rekuongorora rakaburitswa neThe Saban Center kuBrookings muna Mbudzi 2012, Itamar Rabinovich akanyora kuti, "Zviripachena, kusagadzikana muSyria kwakamisa mubvunzo weGolan Heights zvachose. Zvingatora nguva refu kusvikira Israeri yakwanisa kugadzirisa tarisiro yekudzorera Gorani kuDhamasiko.โ
Zvakare, sekureva kwaRabinovich, "kurwisana kweSyria kune mukana wekuunza yakakanganisika yeIsrael - hukama hweTurkey padyo neyakajairwa ...
Kuomerera kweTurkey kwekupidigura hurumende yeSyria yeMutungamiri Bashar al-Assad, kuwanda kweIS nemamwe mauto evapanduki kuchamhembe kwenyika uye nechepakati, kumabvazuva nekumaodzanyemba kweSyria kuri kutsausa zvinogona uye kutarisa kweSyria Arab Army. kuchamhembe nemukati, kure nechekumavirira kumberi neIsrael inotora simba paGolan Heights.
Hondo yakatora nguva refu kuhurumende yeSyria iri kupedza uto rayo mumasimba uye nehupfumi. Kuvakazve mauto eSyria uye zvivakwa zveSyria zvakaparadzwa zvichanetsa nyika kwenguva yakareba iri kuuya uye kudzikamisa chero kutyisidzira kwemauto kuIsrael kwenguva yakareba.
Pamberi pePalestine, kusimuka kweIS kwaita kuti kurwa kuve chinhu chinonyanya kukosha kuUS kuMiddle East, izvo zvakatungamira Aaron David Miller, aimbova chipangamazano kune akati wandei eUS manejimendi panhaurirano dzeIsrael-Palestine, kuti ayambire. Foreign Policy kutanga kwaSeptember kuti kusimuka kweIS kwaizounza "kudzoreredza kwakakomba kune tariro yePalestine yehurumende."
Iyo inotarisirwa kudzoka mukati meiyo post - hondo yeSyria "ine tariro" yaizorerutsira Israeri kubva kuSyria tsigiro yenhoroondo yePalestine anti - Israel kufamba kwekufamba, kwenguva pfupi.
Netanyahu nemusi weSvondo akavhura musangano wecabinet nekushandisa zviri pachena IS senzira yekunzvenga zvinodiwa pakuita runyararo. Israeri "inomira ... sechitsuwa chiri choga ichipesana nemafungu echiIslam anonyanyisa ari kugeza kuMiddle East yese," akadaro, achiwedzera: "Kutimanikidza" nguva yakatarwa yekubuda muIsrael - inotorwa nzvimbo dzePalestine, sezvakarongwa nePalestine. Mutungamiri Mahmoud Abbas kuUN Security Council, "vachaunza masimba echiIslam akasimba kumasabhabhu eTel Aviv uye pakati peJerusarema. Hatibvumire izvi. "
Israeri iri kuwedzerawo kuhondo yeIS kuti iratidze zvisirizvo seyakafanana nePalestine "Islamic" yekupikisa mafambiro nekuda kwehunhu hwavo hwechiIslam. "Kana zvasvika kuzvinangwa zvavo zvekupedzisira, Hamas iISIS uye ISIS iHamas," Netanyahu akaudza UN General Assembly musi waGunyana 29.
* Nicola Nasser mutori wenhau weArab anogara muBirzeit, West Bank yenzvimbo dzePalestine dzakatorwa neIsrael.[email inodzivirirwa]).