Chisankho china ku Venezuela komanso otsutsa a mapiko a kumanja akulira chinyengo mothandizidwa ndi Washington ndi ogwirizana nawo.
Lamlungu, Purezidenti waku Venezuela komanso woyimira chipani cha United Socialist Party (PSUV) a Nicolas Maduro adapambananso zisankho zachiwiri zaka zisanu ndi chimodzi ndi pafupifupi 68 peresenti ya mavoti komanso mothandizidwa ndi pafupifupi zipani zonse zakumanzere mdzikolo.
Ngakhale kuti adasaina mgwirizano mu March kuti azindikire zotsatira, mtsogoleri wotsutsa Henri Falcon watcha voti "yosaloledwa", akufuna kuti chisankho chatsopano mu October.
Zonena zachinyengo zaposachedwa kwambiri pambuyo pa chisankho ndizodabwitsa. Zakhala zochitika zodziwika bwino zomwe zimabwerezedwanso ndi otsutsa aku Venezuela mu 2004, 2005, 2013, ndi 2017, nthawi zambiri popanda umboni wochepa kwambiri komanso wokayikitsa. Komabe, mawayilesi akuluakulu amakampani samawonetsa kunyong'onyeka, kupereka mutu pambuyo mutu mpaka pano wotopa charade.
Zinali chiyani kwenikweni zachilendo, ngati si zachilendo, ponena za chisankho cha Lamlungu chinali chakuti zonena zachinyengo zinayamba miyezi itatu voti isanachitike.
M'mwezi wa February, mgwirizano waukulu wotsutsa ku Venezuela, Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD), udalengeza zomwe akufuna kuchita. kunyanyala zisankho zomwe zikubwera, akutsutsa kuti tsiku la 22 April linali "posachedwa kwambiri" ndipo zitsimikizo zomwe adakambirana ndi boma ku Santo Domingo zinali "zosakwanira". A US ndi ogwirizana nawo m'chigawo chakumanja mu "Lima Group" ya mayiko 14 adatsatira mwachangu zomwezo, mwadala kukana kuvomereza zotsatira za chisankho.
Chodabwitsa n’chakuti, kunyanyalako, komwe kunalungamitsidwa ponena kuti tsiku lachisankho latsala pang’ono kutha, kudalengezedwa patadutsa miyezi isanu ndi umodzi kuchokera pamene bungwe la MUD linalephera kuchita zionetsero zotsutsana ndi boma zofuna kuti chisankho cha pulezidenti chisayambike, chomwe chinapangitsa kuti chichitike. Anthu a 125 akufa pakati pa Epulo ndi July 2017. Panthawiyo, Dipatimenti Yachigawo ku United States, Mlembi Wamkulu wa OAS Luis Almagro, ndi maboma ena odziletsa a m'madera adapereka mobwerezabwereza zisankho za pulezidenti wa 2018. kubweretsedwa patsogolo.
Pofuna kusangalatsa MUD ndi othandizira ake ku Washington, boma la Maduro lidavomera mu Marichi kuti zisankho zibwerere pa Meyi 20, kusaina chikalata. mgwirizano ndi ofuna kumanja a Henri Falcon ndi Javier Bertucci zomwe zidaphatikizanso zitsimikiziro zambiri za chisankho.
Poyankha, MUD inangoumitsa kaimidwe kake. Purezidenti wakale wa National Assembly komanso msilikali wakale wa 2002 a Julio Borges adayamba ulendo wapadziko lonse lapansi wokopa maboma padziko lonse lapansi kuti asavomereze zisankho ndikulimbikitsa zilango zolimbana ndi Venezuela.
Panthawiyi, a United States, ndi mgwirizano wamayiko aku Ulayandipo Canada apereka zilango zozungulira pambuyo pa zilango zomwe zingangotanthauzidwa ngati kuyesa kusokoneza zisankho za dziko loyima palokha. M'malo mwake, zisankho zotsala pang'ono kuchitika, boma la Canada la Trudeau lidafika pochita mosaloledwa lekani Venezuela kuti isakhazikitse malo oponya voti m'mabwalo ake, ndikukana anthu pafupifupi 5000 aku Venezuela ku Canada ufulu wovota. Zikuwoneka kuti Kumadzulo, ndizovomerezeka kulowerera zisankho zakunja - kupatula ngati Kremlin ndi wolakwa. Monga Henry Kissinger adanena mu 1970:
Sindikuwona chifukwa chake tiyenera kuyimilira ndikuwona dziko likupita ku chikomyunizimu chifukwa cha kusayanjanitsika kwa anthu ake. Nkhanizi ndizofunika kwambiri kuti ovota aku Chile asiye kudzisankhira okha.
Malinga ndi zomwe dziko la US likufuna komanso kusasamala kwawo pamalamulo apadziko lonse lapansi ndi miyambo yademokalase, zikuwonekeratu kuti zochepa zomwe zasintha pazaka 48 zapitazi.
Zodzinenera zosadabwitsa
Monga m'mbuyomu, zonena zaposachedwa za "sham" zimakhala ndi madzi ochepa.
Onse a Falcon ndi oyimira evangelical Javier Bertucci ati "malo ofiira" a chipani cholamula cha United Socialist Party adagwiritsidwa ntchito kugula mavoti ndikukakamiza ovota.
Chigawo chodziwika bwino cha njira yolimbikitsira anthu ya PSUV kwa zaka zambiri, "malo ofiira" ndi ma kiosks omwe amakhazikitsidwa pafupi ndi malo opangira zisankho komwe ovota ochirikiza boma amalimbikitsidwa kuti ayang'ane pambuyo povota kuti atsatire zomwe mamembala achita nawo. Amagwiritsidwanso ntchito kugwirizanitsa kayendetsedwe ka zipani monga kutengera madzi ndi chakudya kwa mboni zawo zachisankho pamalo aliwonse komanso kupereka zoyendera kwa omwe ali ndi vuto la kusayenda. Ndizowona kuti a Chavistas amasanthula Khadi lawo la ID la Homeland loperekedwa ndi boma, lomwe limagwiritsidwanso ntchito kugwirizanitsa mapulogalamu a boma monga malo ogawa chakudya a CLAP. Komabe, kuvota ndichinsinsi ku Venezuela ndipo palibe njira yoti a PSUV adziwe momwe omwe amasanthula makhadi awo adavotera - mfundo yosiyidwa mosavuta ndi New York Times m'mafotokozedwe ake a "mawanga ofiira".
Komanso, PSUV si wapadera kugwiritsa ntchito "mawanga ofiira"; Zipani zotsutsa, makamaka zazikulu zomwe zili ndi mphamvu zolimbikitsa anthu m'dziko lonselo, nthawi zambiri zimayika malo awo okhala pafupi ndi malo oponya voti kuti achite zofanana. Ndipotu, pamene tidayendera dera la Petare la 5 de Julio pa chisankho cha chigawo cha October 15, chipani chamanja cha First Justice chinali ndi kiosk yachikasu pafupi ndi malo ovotera kuposa "malo ofiira" a PSUV.
M'kati mwa VA yokhayokha ya voti ya Lamlungu, tinayendera malo ambiri oponya voti ku Caracas komwe tinalankhula ndi mboni za PSUV komanso zipani zotsutsa. Chisankho cha ku Venezuela ndi chapadera kwambiri chifukwa onse omwe akutenga nawo mbali ali ndi ufulu wotumiza mboni zawo m'malo onse achisankho. Mboni izi zimayang'anira ndondomekoyi kuti zitsimikizire kuti malamulo akutsatiridwa, ndipo kumapeto kwa tsiku ali ndi mwayi wopeza mapepala a mapepala a mavoti kuchokera ku makina ovota, omwe amatha kufufuzidwa ndi zotsatira zamagetsi zomwe zimatumizidwa ku likulu la Bungwe la National Electoral Council (CNE).
Palibe mboni zotsutsa zomwe tidayankhulana nazo zomwe zidanena zolakwika.
"Sindinawone zolakwika zilizonse," atero a Pablo Milanes, mboni ya chipani cha pro-Falcon Movement Towards Socialism pamalo ovotera a COECO5 mdera la 5 de Julio ku Petare, kum'mawa kwa Caracas.
Ponena za "malo ofiira", Milanes adadandaula kuti malo osungiramo PSUV "adali pafupi kwambiri" ndi malo ovotera malinga ndi CNE koma adakana kuti zimalepheretsa nzika kuti zivote.
“Munthu aliyense ali ndi udindo pa zochita zake. Anthu azibwera kudzavota ngati akufuna kubwera kudzavota,” adatero.
Chodabwitsa n'chakuti, Falcon adaphatikizidwa mu diatribe yake ya "red spot" ndi mlangizi wake wa zachuma. Francis Rodriguez.
Kubwerera mu Okutobala, banki yaku Wall Street ya Rodriguez Torino Capital idapereka lipoti lotsutsa zonena zachinyengo za MUD pazisankho zachigawo, zomwe PSUV idatenga 18 mwa maulamuliro a 23.
Panthawiyo, Rodriguez adatsimikiza kuti kunali kudziletsa, osati zolakwika, zomwe zinali zofunika kwambiri posindikiza kugonjetsedwa kwakukulu kwa otsutsa:
Dalaivala wofunikira kwambiri wa kutayika kwa otsutsa akuwoneka m'malo mwake kuti sangathe kutulutsa ovota ake ... Detayi imasonyeza kuti otsutsa otsutsa sanakhudzidwe kuvota pa chisankho ichi. Kuyimbira kovomerezeka koletsa chisankho kwa atsogoleri ena omveka kungakhale kosokoneza anthu otsutsa.
Pa zisankho za pa Okutobala 15, PSUV idagwiritsanso ntchito "mfundo zofiyira" ngati imodzi mwazinthu zazikulu zamasewera ake owopsa, zomwe zidasokoneza malingaliro aliwonse kuti njira iyi idakhudza kwambiri zotsatira. Anawagwiritsanso ntchito mofananamo mu chisankho cha 2015, pomwe otsutsa adapambana kwambiri ndipo, posintha, sanalire zachinyengo.
M'malo mwake, kusiyana kwakukulu kokha pakati pa Okutobala ndi Lamlungu lapitali kunali kuchuluka kwa kukana kutsutsa.
Mu Okutobala, otsutsa adataya mavoti 2.1 miliyoni poyerekeza ndi chigonjetso chanyumba yamalamulo ya 2015 ndi mavoti 7.1 miliyoni - kuchepa kwa 30%.
Lamlungu, otsutsa adapeza mavoti pafupifupi 3 miliyoni, kutayika kwina kwa mavoti 2 miliyoni potengera Okutobala komanso kugwa pafupifupi 58 peresenti poyerekeza ndi 2015.
Kudziletsa kunali kwakukulu kwambiri m'malo otsutsa achikhalidwe chapakati, monga Chacao ndi Las Salias m'boma la Miranda, komwe omvera anali 13.87 ndi 18.83 peresenti, komanso m'malo omwe adasamuka m'miyezi yaposachedwa, monga Merida ndi Tachira. Boma. Ngakhale anthu aku Venezuela omwe ali kunja kwa Venezuela atha kuvota, akuyenera kulembetsa ndikukhala ndi visa yakudziko lawo lomwe akukhala, zomwe ndizofunikira zomwe ambiri osakhalitsa osakhalitsa samakwaniritsa.
Uku kutsika kwaposachedwa kwa chiwerengero cha ovota kukuwonetsanso kutsika kwakukulu poyerekeza ndi chisankho cha ma municipalities a December, omwe adanyanyalidwanso ndi zipani zazikulu zotsutsa pamene kutenga nawo gawo kunali 32.02 ndi 38.3 peresenti m'matauni awa.
Chofunikira ndichakuti kusanthula kwa Rodriguez kuli kowona masiku ano monga mu Okutobala, kutanthauza kuti kunali kudziletsa kwa anthu ambiri, osati zolakwika zilizonse, zomwe zidapangitsa kuti pakhale chisankho chapulezidenti wa Falcon.
Izi zadziwika modabwitsa ndi woyang'anira kampeni wa Falcon, a Claudio Fermin, yemwe adati muzoyankhulana zaposachedwa, "Kodi mukuganiza kuti mavoti omwe Falcon, Bertucci, ndi Reinaldo Quijada adapambana ndi onse osakhutira aku Venezuela? zomwe zidachitika ndikuti mamiliyoni a anthu aku Venezuela omwe sanakhutire adakhulupirira ndi matsenga achilendo kuti njira yochitira ziwonetsero ndikukhala kunyumba ndipo zotsatira zake siziyenera kukhala momwe zinalili. ”
Kudziletsa kwapadera
Chaka chatha, otsutsa akumanja aku Venezuela adanenanso kuti zisankho za Julayi 30 National Constituent Assembly zinali zachinyengo chifukwa tsatira mwa ovota oposa mamiliyoni asanu ndi atatu anali “okwera kwambiri” kuti asakhulupirire. Izi zidadza pambuyo pa ziwawa zomwe zidachitika kwa miyezi inayi yolimbana ndi boma motsogozedwa ndi zipani zazikulu za MUD, zomwe zidapangitsa malo 200 ovotera. kuzingidwa pa tsiku lachisankho.
Tsopano, MUD imanena kuti chisankho cha pulezidenti cha Lamlungu ndi chosavomerezeka chifukwa ndi anthu ochepa omwe adavota, chifukwa cha kukana kwakukulu komwe iwo adalimbikitsa.
Sanathe kupambana ambiri pazisankho chifukwa cha zolakwika zawo zambiri - kuyambira ziwonetsero zachiwawa mpaka kulimbikitsa zisankho mpaka kunyalanyala - zipani zamanja za MUD zayesetsa kufotokoza kuti kukana 54% kwa Lamlungu ngati kuvomereza. ndondomeko yawo yosintha maulamuliro.
Palibe chimene chingakhale kutali ndi choonadi. Kafukufuku wa February Datanalisis anapeza kuti 31.7 peresenti yokha ya Venezuela ali ndi malingaliro abwino a MUD, kuchepa kwakukulu kuchokera ku 59.7 peresenti mu October 2016. Free Venezuela Broad Front poyesetsa kukonzanso, atsogoleri ake amakhalabe osakondedwa. Kafukufuku yemweyo wa February adapatsa Julio Borges chivomerezo cha 29.3 peresenti yokha, pomwe Henrique Capriles ndi Leopoldo Lopez adayima pa 30.8 ndi 40.4 peresenti, motsatana.
Ndizofunikira kudziwa kuti Capriles ndi Lopez nthawi zambiri amaperekedwa ndi atolankhani apadziko lonse lapansi ngati opambana otsimikizika ngati ataloledwa kulimbana ndi Maduro, koma saposa kutchuka kwa makumi asanu. Atakhululukidwa ndi Chavez mu 2007 chifukwa cha maudindo awo otchuka mu 2002 mothandizidwa ndi US, Lopez adaweruzidwa kuti akhale m'ndende zaka 13 chifukwa chotsogolera ziwonetsero zotsutsana ndi boma mu 2014, pamene Capriles analetsedwa kuyendetsa ndi ofesi ya Comptroller General pa milandu ya ziphuphu. Onsewa ndi anthu ogawikana kwambiri ndipo sizotsimikizika kuti akanatha kugwirizanitsa otsutsa ambiri kumbuyo kwawo, osasiyapo kupambana odziyimira pawokha okwanira komanso okhumudwa a Chavistas ofunikira kuti apambane.
Kuphatikiza apo, Lamlungu 46 peresenti ya ovota ndi Maduro pafupifupi 31.25 peresenti ya mavoti onse si zachilendo ndi miyezo ya chigawo.
Kuti tisaiwale kuti mu 2016 Hilary Clinton adangopeza 32.9 peresenti ya ovota onse, pamene Donald Trump adapambana 31.49 peresenti. Poyang'anizana ndi anthu awiri omwe sanali otchuka kwambiri m'mbiri ya US, wopambana weniweni wa pulezidenti wa 2016 adakana.
Momwemonso, a Juan Manuel Santos waku Colombia ndi Sebastian Piñera waku Chile adasankhidwa ndi 24.39 (2014) ndi 23.98% (2017), motsatana, ndi omwe adalowa pa 47.89 ndi 44 peresenti.
Pobwereza mosakayikira zomwe otsutsa aku Venezuela akutsutsa pankhani yokana kukana, atolankhani apadziko lonse lapansi akuwululanso zochititsa manyazi, ndikungoyang'ana maulamuliro omwe amathandizidwa ndi US omwe ali ndi udindo wocheperako kuposa Maduro, kuphatikiza maulamuliro ankhanza omwe sanasankhidwe ku Honduras ndi Brazil. .
A pyrrhic chigonjetso?
Komabe, ngakhale kulinganiza zinthu ndikofunikira, dziko la Venezuela silingafanane ndi ma demokalase "otsika kwambiri" ngati United States, Chile, kapena Colombia poganizira kuti ntchito ya Bolivarian Revolution ndiyopambana ndendende zomwe boma la capitalist lidakhazikitsa zotsutsana ndi demokalase. kukondera njira zodzilamulira zokha.
Palibe kanthu pomwe Constitution ya 1999 ya Bolivarian imatanthauzira dziko la Venezuela ngati "demokalase yotenga nawo mbali komanso protagonist" poyitanitsa anthu osauka amtundu wa Afro m'midzi ndi m'matauni kuti atenge ulamuliro wa boma ndi moyo wapagulu koyamba. kuyambira chikhazikitso cha fuko.
Mbali yofunika kwambiri yaulamuliro watsopanowu yadziwonetsera yokha m'bokosi losankhira, pomwe anthu aku Venezuela adakwaniritsa dongosolo la zisankho pansi pa Chavez lomwe silimangowapatsa mwayi koma limatsimikizira mopanda kukayika zofuna za ambiri. Izi zikusiyana kwambiri ndi mayiko monga US, Mexico, kapena Honduras, kumene anthu ambiri otchuka amaponderezedwa nthawi zonse ndi njira zotsutsana ndi demokalase komanso/kapena kubera mavoti.
Poganizira kuti njira ya Bolivarian imadalira kulimbikitsana kosalekeza kwa a Chavista ambiri omwe ali ndi ndale pang'onopang'ono, pogwira ntchito yomanga mabungwe atsopano amphamvu za anthu komanso kuteteza zomwe zilipo m'misewu ndi m'bokosi lovota, zotsatira za Lamlungu. ziyenera kuwerengedwa ngati chizindikiro chochenjeza.
Kumbali imodzi, palibe kukayikira kuti Meyi 20 inali chigonjetso chodziwika bwino, pomwe anthu aku Venezuela adakumana ndi zilango zowopsa zomwe Washington idakumana nazo polimbana ndi kutsutsa poyera, adanyoza ufumuwo ndikuvotera kwambiri kupitiliza kusintha kwa Bolivarian. ndandanda.
Monga womenyera ufulu wa United Socialist Party Carmen Bello adanena kwa ife paulendo wathu wokacheza ku gulu lantchito 5 de Julio barrio ku Petare: “Pano sitikumenyera bokosi la chakudya. Pano tikumenyera ufulu wathu.”
Kuphatikiza apo, mosiyana ndi nkhani yodziwika bwino yapa TV yomwe onse amakana kukhalapo kwa Chavistas kapena amachepetsa kugonjera kwawo pandale kukhala bonasi yochepa, 6.2 miliyoni omwe adavotera Maduro pamavuto azachuma komanso nkhanza zapadziko lonse adachita izi kuti asunge moto wamoto. kuyesa kosintha zinthu, kusonyeza kuti dziko lina n’lothekadi.
"Lero ndikofunika, ngakhale mayiko onse akulimbana nafe, anthu akupitiriza kulimbikitsana. Nkhani yayikulu ikukonzekera dziko lina, lomwe linali lingaliro la Chavez, dziko lomwe tonse timatenga nawo mbali, " anafotokoza Guilda Mercado atavota m'dera la Isiaias Medina m'chigawo chakumadzulo kwa Caracas ku Catia.
Koma kumbali ina, Meyi 20 inali umboni wosatsutsika kuti zaka zinayi zavuto lalikulu lazachuma - pomwe boma la Maduro silinaperekepo yankho lachindunji - lasokoneza ndale.
Monga wolemba waku Venezuela Nestor Francia anati, Maduro adalandira Lamlungu mavoti ochepera 1,341,717 kuposa mavoti 7,587,579 omwe adalandira mu 2013, ngakhale kuti osankhidwawo adakula ndi pafupifupi mamiliyoni awiri panthawiyi. Zowonjezereka, yemwe adakhalapo adalandira mavoti ochepera 1,063,218 kuposa omwe Chavez adapeza mu 2006, pomwe panali ovota pafupifupi mamiliyoni anayi. Ponseponse, titha kunena kuti boma lataya mavoti 1,945,270 kuyambira pomwe Chavez adapambana mu 2012, pomwe adapambana mavoti 8,191,132.
Momwemonso, palibe chokondwerera Lamlungu la 46 peresenti poyerekeza ndi 79.68 peresenti yomwe inavota pa April 14, 2013. Kutsika kumeneku sikunganenedwe, monga momwe boma likunenera, ndi mavuto a mayendedwe kapena kuyitana kwa otsutsa, chifukwa gawo lofunikira la gulu la anthu a Chavista lidasankha kukana. Chavistas pafupifupi mamiliyoni awiri awa omwe adakhala kunyumba Lamlungu sanatero chifukwa adapusitsidwa mwanjira ina zabodza za MUD. M'malo mwake, kudziletsa kwawo kuyenera kuwerengedwa ngati kutsutsa boma la Maduro. Uthenga wawo ukuwoneka kuti, "Simungathe kupitiliza kuletsa njira zothetsera mavuto omwe alipo ndikuyembekeza kusunga mavoti athu."
Munkhani iyi yowononga chithandizo, chigonjetso cha Lamlungu chitha kutsimikizira bwino ngati sichimvera zofuna zamagulu odziwika kuti akhazikitse pulogalamu yosinthira kuthana ndi vutoli, monga izi. zosangalatsa ndi Bolivar ndi Zamora Revolutionary Current.
Mwachidule, monga Francia akumaliza, ngati vutoli ndi nkhondo yachuma monga Maduro amanenera, ndiye kuti boma liyenera kumenyana ndi anthu:
Ndizowona kuti takhala tikukumana ndi zowonongeka za nkhondo yachuma ndi zowonongeka (ndi maulamuliro, ziphuphu, ndi kusagwira ntchito bwino), koma anthu amati m'misewu: Nkhondo ndi nkhondo, mwina boma likuyendetsa kapena likuyima ndikumenyana! Anthu safuna malonjezo a paradaiso wamtsogolo; amafuna zochita, zochita, zenizeni.
Chotsimikizika chokha ndichakuti ndi zilango zaposachedwa zazachuma za Trump komanso kuwopseza kuletsa mafuta, nkhondoyi ikuyenera kukulirakulira.
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