Gwero: Maloto Wamba
Patapita zaka zitatu kutha kwa Nkhondo Yadziko II, kazembe George Kennan adatchulidwa mavuto omwe dziko lidakumana nawo motere:
"Tili ndi pafupifupi 50% yachuma padziko lonse lapansi, koma 6.3% yokha ya anthu onse. Munthawi imeneyi, sitingalephere kukhala munthu wa nsanje ndi mkwiyo. Ntchito yathu yeniyeni m'nthawi ikubwerayi ndikupanga ubale womwe ungatilole kukhalabe ndi kusiyana kumeneku popanda kuwononga chitetezo cha dziko lathu. "
Izi, mwachidule, zinali mtundu waposachedwa wankhondo waku US ndipo Washington panthawiyo anali kukonzekera kuyang'anira dziko lapansi m'njira yoti asunge kusiyana kochititsa chidwi. Chopinga chokhacho chimene Kennan anaona chinali anthu osauka omwe ankafuna kugawana nawo chumacho.
Masiku ano, pamene anthu akukumana ndi vuto la nyengo lomwe likubwera, chomwe chikufunika ndi ntchito yatsopano yandale ndi zachuma. Cholinga chake chikadakhala chochotsa kusasiyana koteroko ndi kudzikundikira chuma cha dziko lapansi ndi zomwe zakhala zikuchitika. wotchedwa "Moyo wabwino kwa onse omwe ali m'malire a mapulaneti."
Ngati mphamvu ndi chinthu chosowa komanso chamtengo wapatali, ndiye kuti payenera kupezeka njira zoika patsogolo kagwiritsidwe ntchito kake kuti zikwaniritse zosowa zachangu za anthu osauka padziko lapansi, m'malo mokulitsa mosalekeza zolemera za olemera kwambiri pakati pathu.
Kalelo mu 1948, owerengeka ngati alipo pano anali kuganiza za zotsatira za chilengedwe cha kugwiritsidwa ntchito mopitirira muyeso kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo. Komabe ngakhale panthawiyo, ngakhale sizikudziwika, chuma chomwe chikukula m'dziko lino chinali ndi mdima wandiweyani: vuto lomwe likukula pang'onopang'ono la kusintha kwa nyengo. Chuma chinatanthauzanso kuchulukitsidwa kwa chuma ndi kupanga katundu. Monga zidachitika, mafuta oyaka (ndi mpweya wowonjezera kutentha womwe udapita ndi kuyaka kwawo) anali ofunikira panjira iliyonse.
Masiku ano, zinthu zasintha - pang'ono. Ndi pafupifupi 4% ya anthu padziko lapansi, United States idakalipobe 30% ya chuma chake, pamene kudzipereka kwake pakugwiritsa ntchito mopitirira muyeso ndi kusunga ulamuliro wadziko lonse sikunagwedezeke modabwitsa. Kuti mumvetse izi, zomwe muyenera kuchita ndikungoganizira zaposachedwa za Biden White House Indo-Pacific Strategy Policy brief, yomwe imayamba motere: "United States ndi mphamvu ya Indo-Pacific." Poyeneradi.
Mu 2022, a ubwenzi pakati pa chuma, mpweya woipa, ndi ngozi zanyengo zayamba kuonekera kwambiri. M'zaka zovuta pakati pa 1990 ndi 2015, chuma chapadziko lonse lapansi kukodzedwa kuchokera $47 thililiyoni mpaka $108 thililiyoni. Pa nthawi yomweyo, mpweya wowonjezera kutentha padziko lonse pachaka inakula kuposa 60%. Kumbukirani, 1990 inali chaka chomwe mpweya woipa wa carbon dioxide (CO2) unayamba. yapitirira zomwe asayansi ambiri amakhulupirira kuti ndi gawo lachitetezo - magawo 350 pa miliyoni, kapena ppm. Komabe m'zaka za 22 kuyambira pamenepo, CO2 yochulukirapo ndi mpweya wina wowonjezera kutentha wakhala operewera mumlengalenga kuposa m'mbiri yonse isanakwane tsikulo, monga mumlengalenga CO2 kusamala 400 ppm zapitazo mu 2016 ndi 420 ppm tsopano ikuyandikira mofulumira.
Kusafanana ndi Kutulutsa
Kukula kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi kumagwirizana kwambiri ndi kuchuluka kwa mpweya. Koma chuma ndi udindo wa mpweya woterewu sizigawidwa mofanana pakati pa anthu padziko lapansi. Pa munthu aliyense mlingo, anthu olemera kwambiri padziko lapansi amadya - ndi kutulutsa - kuposa anzawo osauka. Olemera 10 peresenti ya anthu padziko lapansi, kapena anthu pafupifupi 630 miliyoni, anali ali ndi udindo kupitirira theka la kuwonjezeka kwa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha m'zaka za zana lapitalo. Padziko lonse, mayiko olemera ali ndi anthu ambiri omwe amadya kwambiri, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti dziko likukula ndi lolemera, limatulutsa mpweya wambiri.
Pankhani ya ndalama za munthu aliyense, United States tithe 13 pa dziko. Koma maiko omwe ali pamwamba pa mndandandawo ndi ang'onoang'ono, kuphatikiza ena mwa mayiko a Persian Gulf, Ireland, Luxembourg, Singapore, ndi Switzerland. Chifukwa chake, ngakhale amatulutsa mpweya wambiri pamunthu aliyense, zopereka zawo zonse sizokulirapo. Monga dziko lachitatu lalikulu kwambiri padziko lapansili, kukwera kwa mpweya wathu pa munthu aliyense, kumbali ina, kwawononga kwambiri.
Ndi anthu pafupifupi 330 miliyoni, United States lero ili ndi anthu osakwana gawo limodzi mwa magawo anayi a anthu aku China opitilira 1.4 biliyoni kapena aku India, omwe ali ocheperako. Maiko ena anayi - Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, ndi Pakistan - agwera m'chiลตerengero cha anthu kuyambira 200 mpaka 300 miliyoni, koma katundu wawo wapakhomo (GDPs) ndi mpweya wawo wa munthu aliyense ndizotsika kwambiri. M'malo mwake, okwana US GDP ndalama zoposa $19 thililiyoni kuposa dziko lina lililonse, kutsatiridwa ndi China pa $12 thililiyoni ndi Japan $5 thililiyoni.
Mwachidule, United States ndi yapadera pankhani ya kukula kwake komanso chuma chake. Ndikukhulupirira kuti simudzadabwa kumva kuti, mpaka 2006, inalinso dziko lapansi. pamwamba CO2 emitter. Pambuyo pake, idapitidwa ndi dziko la China lomwe likukula mwachangu (ngakhale kuti dzikolo limatulutsa mpweya wocheperako kuposa theka la dziko lathu) ndipo palibe mpweya wotenthetsa m'dziko lina womwe umabwera pafupi ndi iliyonse mwa awiriwo.
Kuti timvetse bwino udindo wa mayiko osiyanasiyana, m'pofunika kudutsa manambala a pachaka ndikuwona kuchuluka kwa zomwe atulutsa pakapita nthawi, popeza mpweya wowonjezera kutentha umene timayika mumlengalenga sutha kumapeto kwa chaka. Apanso, dziko limodzi amayimirira pamwamba pa ena onse: United States, amene utsi wawo wowonjezereka unafikira matani 416 biliyoni pofika kumapeto kwa 2020. China, chimene sichinayambe kukwera mofulumira mpaka mโma 1980, chinafikira matani 235 biliyoni mโchaka chimenecho, pamene India anatsalira pa 54 biliyoni.
Kukhala woyamba anagunda Matani mabiliyoni 20 mu 1910, mpweya wochuluka wa US ukukwera kuyambira nthawi imeneyo, pamene China sichinafike pa 20 biliyoni mpaka 1979. kutsitsa dziko lapansi.
Bungwe la US Climate Action Network (USCAN) akunena kuti otulutsa mpweya wambiri monga United States agwiritsa kale ntchito yochulukirapo kuposa "gawo lawo labwino" la bajeti yapadziko lapansi ya kaboni ndipo motero, ali ndi ngongole yayikulu ya kaboni kudziko lonse lapansi kuti apereke ndalama zawo kumayiko ena. vuto la kusintha kwa nyengo m'zaka mazana awiri apitawa. Tsoka ilo, malire a 2015 Paris Agreement mwaufulu, osatheka kutsatiridwa, komanso okhazikitsidwa ndi dziko lonse pazautsi amalola mayiko olemera apitilize kuwononga njira zawo zowononga.
Ndipotu, mayiko ayenera kukhala ndi udindo wobwezera ngongole yawo ya carbon. Anthu osauka kwambiri padziko lapansi, omwe sanaperekepo kanthu pa vutoli, akuyenera kupeza gawo la bajeti yotsalayo ndi thandizo lomwe lingawathandize kupanga njira zina zopangira mphamvu zopezera zosowa zawo zofunika.
Pansi pamalingaliro ogawana bwino, sikokwanira kuti United States ingosiya kuwonjezera mpweya. Dziko lino likuyenera kubweza ngongole yomwe idabweza kale. USCAN ikuwerengera kuti kuti ibweze gawo lake labwino United States iyenera kuchepetsa mpweya wake ndi 70% pofika chaka cha 2030, pomwe ikupereka ndalama zofanana ndi 125% ya mpweya womwe umatulutsa chaka chilichonse kudzera muukadaulo ndi ndalama zothandizira mayiko osauka.
Bernie Sanders's Green Deal Yatsopano pempholo adatengera lingaliro la "gawo loyenera." Utsogoleri weniweni pankhondo yapadziko lonse lapansi, Sanders watsutsa, zikutanthauza kuzindikira kuti "United States kwazaka zopitilira zana yatulutsa mpweya woipa wa kaboni mumlengalenga kuti ukhale ndi chuma padziko lapansi. Chifukwa chake, tili ndi udindo wokulirapo wothandiza mayiko osatukuka kwambiri kuti akwaniritse zomwe akufuna komanso kukhala ndi moyo wabwino. โ
Pankhani iyi, komabe, mawu ake ndi ena otero mwachisoni amakhalabe kunja kwa mapiko akumanja kwambiri. (Ndipo ngati mukukayikira izi, ingoyang'anani aposachedwa a Joe Manchin zolemba zovota.)
Kodi Tikupita Patsogolo Chifukwa cha New Technologies?
Mu 2018, bungwe la UN la Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) linapereka chigamulo. lipoti lapadera pa mwayi wathu wochepetsera kutentha kwa dziko kufika madigiri 1.5 centigrade - cholinga chimene mayiko okhudzidwa ndi Pangano la Paris, kuphatikizapo United States, adavomereza ngati maziko awo oti achitepo kanthu. Zinaganiza kuti, kuti tikhale ndi mwayi wokhala pansi pa kutentha kwa 50%, mpweya wathu wamtsogolo sungathe kupitirira 480 gigatons (kapena matani 480 biliyoni). Izi, mwa kuyankhula kwina, inali bajeti yotsalira ya kaboni yaumunthu.
Tsoka ilo, pofika chaka cha 2018, mpweya wapadziko lonse lapansi udapitilira ma gigatons 40 pachaka, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti ngakhale ataphwanyidwa nthawi yomweyo (osati momwe angathere), titha kugwiritsa ntchito bajetiyi zaka khumi ndi ziwiri zokha. Choyipa kwambiri, ngakhale kuchepa kwa Covid mu 2020, mpweya wapadziko lonse lapansi kwenikweni kuyambiranso kwambiri mu 2021.
Njira zambiri zochepetsera utsi, kuphatikizapo zimene bungwe la IPCC linanena, zimadalira kwambiri njira zatsopano zopezera umisiri zomwe zidzatithandize kufika kumeneko popanda kusintha kwambiri chuma cha padziko lonse kapena kugwiritsa ntchito mopitirira muyeso kwa anthu ndi mayiko olemera kwambiri padziko lapansi. Kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo kotereku, tikuyembekezeka, kungatipangitse kupanga zochuluka, kapena mphamvu zochulukirapo kuchokera kuzinthu zongowonjezedwanso komanso mwina kuyamba kuchotsa CO2 mumlengalenga.
Tsoka ilo, pali umboni wochepa wotsimikizira kuti izi zikuyenda bwino, makamaka munthawi yomwe tatsala. Ngakhale tipanga umisiri watsopano wotani, zikuwoneka kuti palibe mphamvu "zoyera" kwathunthu. Zonsezi - nyukiliya, mphepo, dzuwa, mphamvu yamadzi, geothermal, biomass, ndipo mwinamwake zina zomwe zikuyenera kupangidwa - kudalira ntchito zazikulu za mafakitale kuti atenge zinthu zopanda malire padziko lapansi; mafakitale kuti azikonza; zipangizo zopangira, kusunga, ndi kutumiza mphamvu; ndipo, pamapeto pake, mtundu wina wa zinyalala (ganizirani mabatire, ma solar panels, magalimoto akale amagetsi, ndi zina zotero). Mphamvu yamtundu uliwonse idzakhala ndi zovuta zingapo zowopsa zachilengedwe. Pakadali pano, kugwiritsa ntchito njira zina zopangira magetsi kukuchulukirachulukira padziko lonse lapansi, sikunachepetsebe kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta oyaka. M'malo mwake, ndi basi anawonjezera pakukula kwathu kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu.
Nโzoona kuti mayiko olemera kwambiri padziko lonse apindulapo kusokosera kukula kwachuma kuchokera ku kukwera kwa mpweya. Koma zambiri mwa kuphatikizikako pang'ono kumeneku kumabwera chifukwa chosiya kugwiritsa ntchito malasha kupita ku gasi wachilengedwe, komanso kuthamangitsidwa kwa mafakitale akuda. Kuchepetsa mpaka pano, sikunapangitse mpweya wowonjezera kutentha padziko lonse lapansi ndipo zikuwoneka kuti sizingatheke kufulumizitsa kapena kupitilira pa liwiro lokwanira pambuyo poyambira ndi zosavuta izi. Choncho pafupifupi nyengo zonse kuwonetsera, mofanana ndi IPCC, ikusonyeza kuti njira zatsopano zochotsera mpweya wa CO2 mumlengalenga zidzafunikanso kuthana ndi kukwera kwa mpweya.
Koma matekinoloje otulutsa mpweya woipa ndiwo makamaka kukhumba panthawi ino. M'malo mongodalira zomwe zikadali zongopeka zaukadaulo, pomwe olemera akupitiliza chinyengo chawo, ndi nthawi yoti tisinthe malingaliro athu mozama ndikuyang'ana kwambiri, monga ndimachitira m'buku langa latsopano. Kodi Sayansi Yokwanira? Mafunso Makumi Ofunika Kwambiri Okhudza Chilungamo Chanyengo, mmene tingachepetsere kukumba, kupanga, ndi kugwiritsira ntchito zinthu mโnjira zolungama zochulukirapo, kotero kuti tithedi kukhala ndi moyo mogwirizana ndi zimene pulaneti lathu limapereka. kuitana ndi "post-kukula" kapena "kuchepaโ kuganiza.
Musalakwitse: sitingathe kukhala opanda mphamvu ndipo timafunikira kutembenukira kuzinthu zina m'malo mwa mafuta oyaka. Koma mphamvu zina zitha kukhala zothandiza ngati titha kuchepetsanso mphamvu zathu, zomwe zikutanthauza kukonzanso chuma cha padziko lonse lapansi. Ngati mphamvu ndi chinthu chosowa komanso chamtengo wapatali, ndiye kuti payenera kupezeka njira zoika patsogolo kagwiritsidwe ntchito kake kuti zikwaniritse zosowa zachangu za anthu osauka padziko lapansi, m'malo mokulitsa mosalekeza zolemera za olemera kwambiri pakati pathu. Ndipo ndizo ndendende zomwe kuganiza kwa degrowth zonse ndizokhudza: kuchepetsa kufunafuna mopanda nzeru kupanga, kugwiritsa ntchito, ndi phindu mokomera "ubwino wa anthu ndi kukhazikika kwachilengedwe."
Kusiya Exceptionalism
Mu Epulo 2021, Purezidenti Biden adalengeza modabwitsa, ndikukhazikitsa cholinga chatsopano chotulutsa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha ku US - kuti achepetse 50% kuchokera mumiyezo ya 2005 pofika 2030 ndikufikira ziro pofika 2050. Zikumveka bwino, sichoncho?
Koma poganizira kuti dziko lino la CO2 mpweya idagunda matani 6.13 biliyoni mu 2005, zomwe zikutanthauza kuti pofika 2030 tikadakhala tikutulutsa matani mabiliyoni atatu a CO2 pachaka. Ngakhale tikadafika pa net-zero pofika 2050, dziko lathu lokha likadakhala nalo agwiritsidwa ntchito kotala limodzi ya bajeti yonse yotsala ya kaboni yapadziko lapansi. Ndipo pakali pano, potengera momwe ndale zaku America zilili, palibe dongosolo lenileni kapena njira yodziwikiratu yofikira cholinga cha Biden. Ngati tikhalabe panjira yathu yapano - osadalira izi ngati ma Republican atenga Congress mu 2022 ndi White House kachiwiri mu 2024 - sitingakwaniritse 30% kuchepetsa ndi 2030.
Kusintha njira kungatanthauze kusiya kuchita zinthu mwapadera.
Pakadali pano, palibe chitsimikizo kuti tikhalabe m'njira imeneyo, mosasamala kanthu za chipani chomwe chili ndi mphamvu. Pambuyo pake, ganizirani izi:
- Mu 2010, pafupifupi theka mwa magalimoto atsopano ogulitsidwa ku United States anali magalimoto ndipo theka anali ma SUV kapena magalimoto. Pofika 2021, pafupifupi 80% anali ma SUV kapena magalimoto.
- Mu 2020, nyumba zatsopano zopitilira 900,000 zinali yomangidwa m'dziko lino, kukula kwawo kwapakati, 2,261 mapazi lalikulu. Ambiri aiwo anali ndi zipinda zinayi kapena kupitilira apo ndipo 870,000 anali ndi mpweya wapakati.
- Bill Biden wa zomangamanga, inayinidwa mu Novembala 2021, adaphatikiza $763 biliyoni pamisewu yayikulu yatsopano.
Ndipo tisanalankhulenso za gulu lankhondo-mafakitale-ma congressional ndi nkhondo. Kupatula apo, dipatimenti yachitetezo ndi wogula wamkulu wamakampani mafuta opangira mafuta komanso otulutsa CO2 padziko lapansi. Pakati pa maziko ake apadziko lonse lapansi, kukwezeleza zida zankhondo, komanso nkhondo zapadziko lonse lapansi, gulu lathu lankhondo lokha limatulutsa mpweya wapachaka kuposa mayiko olemera monga Sweden ndi Denmark.
Pakadali pano, pokonzekera msonkhano wokhudza kusintha kwanyengo ku Glasgow, Scotland, chakumapeto kwa 2021, Kazembe Wapadera wa Purezidenti wa Zanyengo a John Kerry. anaumiriza mobwerezabwereza kuti United States iyenera kuyesetsa kubweretsa China. Joe Biden kwambiri anaika maganizo ake onse ku China. Ndipo ndithudi, kupatsidwa mpweya wowonjezera kutentha ndi kukulitsa kugwiritsa ntchito malasha, China ili ndi gawo lalikulu loti lichite. Koma kudziko lonse lapansi, kulimbikira koteroko kuti tichotse chidwi chathu pazovuta zanyengo sikuli kanthu.
A 2021 phunziro zimasonyeza kuti pafupifupi malasha onse otsala padziko lapansi, osanenapo za nkhokwe zake zambiri za gasi ndi mafuta, adzafunika kukhala pansi ngati kutentha kwa dziko kuyenera kukhala pansi pa 1.5 digiri centigrade. Kubwerera mu 2018, ina phunziro adapeza kuti ngakhale kukwaniritsa cholinga cha 2-degree centigrade, chomwe chiri tsopano zonse zomveka bwino zikanakhala zoopsa kwambiri pakusintha kwanyengo, anthu amayenera kuyima onse zatsopano zopangira mafuta opangira mafuta ndipo nthawi yomweyo yambitsani kuchotsa zopangira zopangira mafuta. M'malo mwake, malo atsopanowa akupitiriza kumangidwa mosalekeza padziko lonse lapansi. Pokhapokha ngati United States, yomwe ili ndi udindo waukulu kwambiri pazovuta zanyengo, ndiyokonzeka kusintha njira, ingafune bwanji kuti ena atero?
Koma kusintha njira kungatanthauze kusiya kuchita zinthu mwapadera.
Akatswiri a kukula kutsutsana kuti, m'malo moika pachiswe tsogolo lathu lonse pa matekinoloje omwe sanatsimikizidwebe kuti tigwirizane ndi kukula kwachuma, tiyenera kufunafuna mayankho okhudzana ndi chikhalidwe cha anthu ndi ndale omwe angaphatikizepo kugawanso chuma cha dziko lapansi, chuma chake chosowa, ndi bajeti yake ya carbon m'njira zomwe kuika patsogolo zofunika zofunika ndi umoyo wa anthu padziko lonse.
Izi, komabe, zingafune kuti United States ivomereze mbali yamdima yazapadera zake ndikuvomera kuzisiya, zomwe, mu Marichi 2022, zikuwonekabe kuti sizingatheke.
ZNetwork imalandira ndalama kudzera mu kuwolowa manja kwa owerenga ake.
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