When historians look back on the war in Afganistan, they may well point to last December’s battle for Musa Qala, a scruffy town in the country’s northern Helmand Provinsi, as a turning point. In a war of shadows, remote ambushes, and anonymous roadside bombs, Musa Qala was an exception: a stand-up fight.
On one side was the Afghan National Army, the AS 82nd Airborne, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). On the other side stood the Taliban. When the fight was over, the U.S.-led coalition had "won." What they had "won" was a town shattered by B-1 and B-52s bombers, A-10 attack planes, Apache helicopters, AC-130 gunships, and artillery barrages.
Menurut NATO, "Operasi Ular" menewaskan ratusan anggota Taliban. Menurut London Times, pasukan pembersihan Inggris menemukan satu pemberontak tewas. Tidak ada yang tahu berapa banyak warga sipil yang tewas di Musa Qala. NATO mengklaim tidak memiliki informasi mengenai korban jiwa. Penduduk setempat mengatakan lebih dari 40 orang tewas. Juru bicara Taliban, Qari Yousuf Ahmadi menepis pentingnya pertempuran tersebut: "Kehilangan Musa Qala tidak berarti kami akan berhenti berperang."
Meningkatnya Kekerasan
Last year was the deadliest for Afganistan since the 2001 invasion, with more than 6,200 Afghan deaths. Suicide bombs have increased eightfold, roadside bombs are up 24%, and diplomats are warned not to dine out in the country’s capital, Kabul.
“Jumlah distrik tempat Taliban beroperasi melonjak tahun lalu,” kata John McCreary, mantan analis intelijen senior di Kepala Staf Gabungan AS. “Ini adalah tahun pertama mereka berhasil mempertahankan lebih dari 100 serangan per bulan selama setahun penuh sejak mereka mulai meningkat kembali. Seratus serangan per bulan dulunya merupakan angka lonjakan. Sekarang ini adalah sebuah norma baru.”
Faktanya jumlah serangan rata-rata 548 per bulan. Menurut PBB, terlalu berisiko mengirim tim bantuan ke seperlima wilayah negara tersebut. “Sungai kini tampak mengalir mundur,” seperti yang digambarkan oleh seorang analis.
Apa yang terjadi di Musa Qala terjadi di hampir setiap provinsi di negara ini: Para pemberontak masuk, membagikan uang hasil perdagangan opium yang menguntungkan, dan mengusir atau mengintimidasi pasukan pemerintah setempat. Kemudian, melalui bom pinggir jalan, serangan mortir tengah malam, dan penyergapan, para pemberontak memaksa pasukan NATO untuk bersembunyi di kamp-kamp yang dibentengi.
Perang Udara
Ketika Amerika Serikat or NATO finally goes on the offensive, the coalition’s lack of troops means they must rely on artillery and air power, which translates into a greater number of civilian casualties. Louise Arbour, the UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights, says that civilian casualties caused by military activity have reached "alarming levels" this past year. "These not only breach international law but are eroding support among the Afghan community for the government and the international presence, as well as public support in contributing states for continued engagement in Afganistan."
That erosion is accelerating. Polls indicate that the British and Australian public wants their troops out, and in Kanada, only the minority Conservatives support the war. [sic]
German Chancellor Angela Merkel – her eyes on polls indicating widespread antipathy for the war – recently said she has "absolutely no time" to consider redeploying Jerman‘s troops to the war-torn south.
Only the French, the Belgians, and the Amerika Serikat have agreed to send more troops, the first two just a handful, and the latter 3,200. According to AS counterinsurgency doctrine, Afganistan would require 400,000 troops to pacify, although the country’s history suggests that even that number is probably wildly optimistic. The Amerika Serikat and NATO currently have 43,000 troops in Afganistan.
Sekutu yang Goyah
In a blow to the current push for more troops, the Belanda decided to withdraw all its soldiers by 2010. "The Dutch decision," says the German newspaper Der Spiegel, "may set a precedent, raising concerns among NATO military leaders over a possible domino effect. If only one major NATO country yields to domestic pressure and decides to withdraw its troops from Afganistan, it could set off an avalanche."
The possibility of an "avalanche" has so panicked the Bush administration that it sent Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Eropa. "I am concerned that many people on this continent may not comprehend the magnitude of the direct threat to European Security," said Gates in arguing for more troops.
Tapi Afganistan was sold to the allies not as a war, but an international aid mission. "We are in the south [of Afganistan] to help and protect the Afghan people reconstruct their own economy and democracy," former British Defense Secretary John Reid said back in 2006.
However, according to the aid organization Oxfam, the humanitarian crisis in Afganistan is "comparable with sub-Saharan Africa," and AS and NATO troops find themselves in the middle of a war with a significant section of the population.
“Taliban berkembang dan menciptakan aliansi baru bukan karena praktik keagamaan sektariannya menjadi populer, namun karena mereka adalah satu-satunya payung pembebasan nasional,” tulis sejarawan dan komentator politik Pakistan, Tariq Ali. “Ketika Inggris dan Soviet menyadari kerugian yang mereka alami dalam dua abad sebelumnya, rakyat Afghanistan tidak suka jika diduduki.”
Tentu saja itulah pesan yang disampaikan Taliban. “Kami berjuang untuk membebaskan negara kami,” kata Mullah Muhammad Omar, “Kami bukanlah ancaman bagi dunia.”
Menjangkau Taliban
Beberapa AS allies are also beginning to question the Bush administration’s one-dimensional portrayal of the Taliban as a tightly disciplined, international terrorist organization. "There is a hard core of Islamist extremists of varied ethnic and national origin, but the great majority of the people we are engaged against are those who are fighting with the Taliban for financial, social and tribal reasons," says British army chief, General Sir Richard Dannatt. "So we must beware of tarring them all with the same brush, as I am sure that one day we will need to deal with and eventually reconcile the elected government with the majority of these people."
That approach has found little resonance within Washington policy circles, which view a "victory" in Afganistan as central to the war on terrorism. "What is happening in Afganistan and beyond its borders can have even greater strategic long-term consequences than the struggle in Irak," intones the Atlantic Council of the Amerika Serikat.
While some NATO countries are hedging their bets in Afganistan, yang Amerika Serikat is already going "beyond its borders" and launching attacks into Pakistan. Unmanned Predator aircraft have killed several Taliban leaders, along with scores of civilians, and the Amerika Serikat is squeezing the Pakistani government to move its military into the Tribal Areas and Northwest Frontier to pacify Taliban forces.
Frederick Kagan of recently pulled together a planning group at the conservative American Enterprise Institute to urge the Bush administration to surge troops into Afghanistan and threaten Pakistan with air strikes. Rather than suppressing the Taliban, however, this stepped up militarism has unified the Pushtuns – the heart of the Taliban – on both sides of the border. Local tribes have inflicted thousands of casualties on the Pakistani Army, rocketed the provincial capital of Peshawar, and spread the insurgency into the rich Pukulan keras Lembah.
“Tidak ada cara bagi NATO untuk memenangkan perang ini,” kata Tariq Ali terus terang.
That conclusion should hardly come as a surprise. As British correspondent Ronan Thomas notes, "Strategic success in Afganistan has often been envisaged by outside powers – British, Soviet and now Coalition forces – but rarely if ever achieved." Like its predecessors, the Amerika Serikat is losing the "great game" in Asia Tengah.
Conn Hallinan adalah kolumnis Foreign Policy In Focus (www.fpif.org).
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